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Beneficial Rain

We finally have some heavier rain moving into the area but as has been typical over the last year or so (some would say the last seven years), the heaviest rain will fall in the southern half of the area today, Thursday evening into Friday, and again on Saturday. Rain amounts could end up being an inch or so in a few spots in the southern half of the area over the course of the next 4 days. In the northwoods, it will likely only be a few tenths - but something is better than nothing.

Even though the weather will be gloomy over the next few days, it doesn’t bother me much, in fact I am rather happy about it. I would rather suffer through a few gloomy rainy days than experience another drought this year.

Short blog entry today, because i am off to a school visit.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Spring

This post was written by jloew on March 10, 2010
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Busy Busy Day

Today has been one of those days that I feel like I have been running around like a chicken with my head cut off.  My day started with a few too many hits of the snooze button which got me off to a late start.  A had to do my normal morning routine quickly today because i needed to be to work a little bit early for a ‘Webinar’…yep a ‘webinar’.  It cracks me up when technology creates new words.

Well, I wanted to tell you guys a little bit about today’s ‘Webinar”.  Our graphics and radar service provider is Weather Central based out of Madison.  As the severe weather season nears, Weather Central wanted to make sure everyone is set up properly to tackle the severe weather season.  With a little bit of software house cleaning and updates, we will be more than ready before the rough weather rolls in.  For how quiet the last couple of year have been…I think we are due for an active one.

I also had a fun evening reading to the kids at South Mountain Elementary School.  Tonight was their family reading night.  I read one of my favorite books…”Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs”.  Thanks to the recent movie, the book has become a favorite of the kids too.

Severe weather season is already under way for the southern portion of Tornado Alley.  Yesterday an EF 2 tornado caused damage to the town of Hammond, Ok.  Some incredible video is already surfacing from the violent twister.

Thanks youtube…. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_kzKP0IYSY

Wow…

Here is the NWS Survey of the tornado.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Severe Weather

This post was written by bniznansky on March 9, 2010
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Iditarod, Flooding, Wave Clouds???

This will be another montage of articles. 

I wanted to mention the Iditarod this weekend but I kept forgetting to talk about.  What a race that is! It has been going on for 38 years and covers 1150 miles of every kind of terrain known to man in Alaska.  It takes the mushers from 10 to 17 days to cover the course.  While reading about the race I found a few things interesting.  From watching an TV show I knew that the trail began from the early 1900’s when they used dog sleds to get from town to town to transport mail and supplies what I didn’t know was that it also helped one town, Nome, in 1925 by providing medicine to a town struck with Diphetheria.  I also read that there are two different routes that they use and to be fair they alternate the routes every other year.  I just have to say what endurance and dedication those mushers have.  They are now 5 days into their race and have much more ahead of them.  If you want to find out more or follow the race you can check out there website.

As we have been blogging about recentlyflooding is still on the horizon for much of the midwest this year.  That could also impact the entire US as grain prices will likely go up if we follow the same trend we went through in 2008.  The warm spring is helping us to see rain instead of snow and on top of the snow pack that is melting the rain could cause more issues.   

Lastly we received this picture in our email.  I was trying to decipher what kind of clouds these were.  There are only three main types-cirrus, cumulus and stratus but there are many sub categories of the types of clouds.  I would have to classify these clouds as wave clouds.  I have seen similar pictures but clouds can do almost anything we like.   

Lastly on the subject of pictures… check out these. The first one I thought was so cute.  It looks like the squirrel is giving the flower to someone!

Have a great Tuesday!! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Flooding

This post was written by kconnolly on March 9, 2010
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Odd 10 Year Anniversary

On March 8, 2000, Milwaukee had their earliest tornado in a calendar year on record.  An EF 1 Tornado touched down on the airport grounds and tracked through portions of Cudahy and St. Francis.  The tornado was about 75 miles wide and packed winds up to 110 mph.  At the time I was living in Racine and remember watching the coverage of this tornado…I think I remember either aPizza Hut or Hardees was damaged pretty good, along with dozens of other homes and businesses.  This is not the earliest in a year a tornado has touched down in Wisconsin.  On January 9th, 2008, two tornadoes touched down in Kenosha County.

For more on the March 2000 Milwaukee tornado check out the NWS Write Up and another blog from a veteran Milwaukee meteorologist.

Well… our streak of gorgeous days is in major jeopardy.  Not one but 2 areas of low pressure will finally affect the region this week.  Along with the fog, some clouds will move in tonight.  Tuesday should remain dry but showers will be knocking on the door by the evening.  There will be a chance of showers Tuesday night and through the day on Wednesday.  We could catch a break in the action on Thursday, but the next system will bring more rain by Thursday night through Friday.  Some showers may even linger into the first part of the weekend.  Oh well, we are more than due.  A nice rainfall would actually be quite beneficial to the area so let’s keep our fingers crossed.  We could be down to just a few very ugly snow piles by the weekend.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Severe Weather, Spring

This post was written by bniznansky on March 8, 2010
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Progress in Agriculture

When looking at the future through the prism of potential anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and Peak Oil, some days it looks half full (not many problems) and other days it looks half empty. There are certainly trends in technological progress that point toward a cleaner future of abundance, instead of the dystopia of Peak Oil and AGW. I cover these developments all the time in the blog and I am often amazed at how advancing technology is impacting every aspect of our lives. People in agriculture have been at the forefront of most of the changes over the last century and we might not have seen anything yet!

As recent as 1870, 70 to 80% of the U.S. population was employed in agriculture. As of 2008 around 2 to 3% of the population was employed in the industry and I have even seen some estimates of only 1%. So what is going on? Technology is helping us grow more food with less labor. Some people think we have reached the lower limit but I am not so sure. Robotics is finding its way into agriculture and this will reduce the need for labor even more. Other types of technology such as cheap wireless sensors are helping us grow food more efficient. The winner of the recent Imagine H2O competition for using water efficiently was a company that uses sensors to monitor vineyards and only irrigate when the plants need it. See Imagine H2O’s website here. This type of efficiency breakthrough is also being applied to fertilizer, pesticide, and herbicide application. Just when you thought farming couldn’t get anymore efficient, it does. Will imbuing our agriculture with more technology and “intelligence” head off any trouble with Peak Oil and AGW? I think so.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Peak Oil

This post was written by jloew on March 8, 2010
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Rain Needed, Rain in the Forecast

We have seen nothing  but beautiful days for the past 7.  We have seen fog in many areas and that will be the continued story into the overnight for the next two nights.  The week will start off quiet but we could really use some rain.  I am going to show you the stats for precipitation for the past couple months and this shows that we could really use some rain.

January- Normal= 1.09, Received= 0.71  Difference -0.38

February- Normal= 0.90, Received= 0.40 Difference -0.50

March so far - Normal = 0.31 Received= 0 Difference -0.31

Adding the first three months in 2010 we are negative 1.19 in the rain bucket.

Although we all enjoy beautiful sunny days we need some rain here and there too.  Right now a storm is on track to move into our area Tuesday night.  Although exact tracks will be fine tuned over the next couple days it does seem that this storm could bring a chance of rain from Tuesday night through Friday.  Even if we just see light rains over a couple days that will help us to make a dent in our deficit.  Check out the pictures below: they are of Wednesday night, Thursday night and Friday afternoon. 

We will keep an eye on the track and hopefully see some rain over the 3 day period!

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Monthly Recap, Records, Storms, Weather History

This post was written by kconnolly on March 7, 2010
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A Wild Winter ( not for us!!!)

Wild, I think that is the word that describes the United States and the World’s winter.  We probably have seen one of the quietest patterns and winters compared to millions across the globe.  Don’t believe me? Check out this video.  Europe, like the United States has seen one of it’s worst winters in decades.  The video is pretty impressive and shocking.  I have to save one of my favorite parts is the Scottish farmer, its closer to the end.  I won’t give it away but it’s pretty cute. 

Brian blogged a little about this a few nights ago but I have to mention it to since I hear it constantly  from my family! Florida, not a place you wanted to travel to this winter because of the cold.  Farmers are now dealing with almost a 70% damage to their tomato crop.  In other words the record cold in January and February not only affected tourists but almost anyone who enjoys tomatoes.  A case of tomatoes has went up 10 dollars since last year because of the loss of the crop. This means restaurants are limiting their use of the red vegetable.  If you like tomatoes, you may have to request.

Last but not least…6 days of beautiful weather.  The first week in March was amazing. Plenty of sunshine and temps 7 to 10 degrees above average.  We even saw 50’s on the board today.  I ran the Point Bock Run with a few of my fellow Newline 9’s and we had a blast.  We could not have asked for more perfect weather for the run.  It was a record breaking number of runners and I think everyone enjoyed themselves.  I also tried their homemade root beer for the first time and I think I am now hooked on it! I have to say I am glad I took up running a year ago! I will post pictures as soon as I get them !

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Natural Disasters, Records, Winter Weather

This post was written by kconnolly on March 6, 2010
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Beware of Methane!

I just wanted to update a blog entry from earlier this week. The official SPC blog announced that there were no tornadoes during the month of February in the entire U.S. In my blog entry I linked to the SPC online table of tornado statistics and it showed one tornado, so there was a small discrepancy. According to Rebekah who left a comment in the blog post, there was indeed 1 confirmed tornado in the U.S. during February. It occurred in California of all places. Having only 1 tornado is still a record low, but it is not quite as unique as having zero. One thing to remember is that the number of tornadoes in February does not really tell us much about the number of tornadoes we can expect for the rest of the year. If we continue to see large El Nino-driven storm systems moving through the southern half of the country during the months of March and April then it is likely we will have above normal tornadoes. The question then becomes: Is El Nino going to stick around through the Spring?

According to the latest monthly El Nino diagnostic discussion, El Nino will weaken but remain through about June.

El Nino Forecast to Slowly Weaken

El Nino Forecast to Slowly Weaken

The ENSO experts expect conditions similar to the winter pattern will continue for the U.S. So for the next month or two temps could be below normal and precipitation will likely be above normal precipitation in the southern half of the U.S. If a similar trend in the weather continues for our area for the next couple of months, I will not be very happy because that would mean continue dry conditions with above normal temps. It is not that I don’t like the sunny mild weather as of late, it is just that I don’t want to start out another growing season with a drought. I would rather see some big rain and snowstorms develop later this month and again in April. Unfortunately, for the next 7 to 10 days anyway, no significant storm systems are on the horizon, only a slight chance of light rain is coming this Sunday morning and perhaps again next Thursday.

Because of El Nino lingering into the Spring and maybe early summer, there could be many parts of the world that end up warmer than normal this year. This will no doubt bring more focus on the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) debate and spur a closer look at some of the theoretical drivers of AGW - such as methane being released from the arctic. I noticed one story about methane garnering some headlines this morning - “Methane releases from the Arctic might be larger and much faster than anticipated” and “Methane beneath Arctic seabed destabilizing“. As is typical, the research is reported in the most dramatic fashion possible with perhaps more foreboding than necessary. In at least one article (read here), two very key points are raised, no one knows how long this has been going on, and it is only a tiny fraction of the total methane released into the atmosphere each year. The area in question (the Arctic seabed near Siberia) was dry land during the time of the last ice age. It has been under water for thousands of years. If the water has warmed up the permafrost enough to release some methane, then this might have been happening for a long time already. In news from the arctic that could be seen as more positive, Alaskan glaciers have not been receding as fast as previously estimated. In any case, this is another data point for climatologists to consider when trying to calculate how the climate will change in the future. More observations and better data will make for better understanding and more precise forecasts.

In case you are intensely worried about AGW theory and forecasts, here is some good news about developments in alternative energy.

First of all, the price of oil continues to remain high - near and over 80 dollars a barrel. There is a complex dynamic interplay between the cost of traditional fossil fuels and the economic viability of alternatives. As long as the price oil remains high, further investment will occur in alternatives and more people will by the power generated from them. On the flip side, if alternatives can be manufactured more cheaply, then this will also increase their adoption. The price of solar power has been coming down recently and the trend should continue thanks to innovative research such as that occurring at 1366 Technologies. This company has found a way to create crystalline silicon solar cells that could lead to a cost of production 80% less than current methods. The only problem is that the cells are not likely to be as efficient at converting light into electricity as ones manufactured using traditional methods. Not right away. It might take a few years to upgrade the efficiency.

Another method to make solar cheaper is to employ the economies of scale. We have good news in this arena as well. Applied Materials recently jumped into the solar business and has developed production technology and machines to create the world’s largest solar panels.

More good news is that many new solar power installations are being constructed, even though the economic environment is not all that great and governments are cutting back on subsidies. In France, the largest solar power plant in the world is being constructed and should be completed in 2012. It should generate 143 megawatts at peak output which is enough to power about 62,000 homes. Interestingly, it will only employ 15 people. Employment is one part about alternative energy that I think is overstated. A lot of politicians love to talk about green jobs, but it is well known that wind power investment has not created many jobs in the U.S. and this was the case in Spain as well. Alternatives might be great for the environment but there is no guarantee that there will be an explosion of new jobs. “Green energy” jobs will grow, but at the expense of fossil fuel jobs and since it takes just a small handful of people to run very large solar installations (hooray for efficiency) one would think there would be a net job loss in the energy sector.

Of course, there is a lot of talk about the need for new infrastructure to handle all the new sources of alternative energy. Good thing the development of said infrastructure is occurring as we speak across a broad range of industries. Check out this list of 10 companies that are leading the way.

Even Ferrari is going green!The company is working on a sportscar hybrid. Even though they are known for gas guzzling super-cars, they say they have no qualms about creating “greener” vehicles. Their main concern is that performance is still tops in the world.

Have a nice weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, ENSO Update

Florida Freeze..

Out of jealousy… it’s been kind of fun hearing the complaining from people who just got back from Florida about how how cold it was down there.  Florida has been plagued with historically cold temperatures all winter.

Soon we will all be sorry since about 70% of Florida’s tomato crop has been wiped out by freezing temperatures.  Prices are already getting jacked up in the supermarkets and I’m sure it is just a matter of time before fast food joints start leaving out the tomato on your sandwich or taco.  With this big time tomato shortage they may not have a choice.

Tonight is going to be another cold night for the Florida Peninsula.  Freeze warnings extend all the way to the everglades.  Things better warm up fast before spring break rolls around!!!

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

This post was written by bniznansky on March 4, 2010
7 Comments

Space Travel

It is Thursday so time for a US Drought Monitor update. As you could have guessed, no change in the drought conditions here in Wisconsin. We are still experiencing drought in the northern third of the state and this is unlikely to disappear anytime soon.

No change in WI drought

No change in WI drought

The weather has been drier than normal since the beginning of the year and it looks like it will continue that way for the next 7 to 10 days at least. At this point it looks like the next big storm moving from west to east across the nation will stay to our south on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. When the next big snow or rain storm will hit Northcentral Wisconsin is still up in the air. I have got my fingers crossed for some heavy precipitation this Spring. Drought during the winter does not matter much. Drought during the growing season can bring a lot of grief.

Since almost nothing is happening in the weather I might as well turn to some of my other favorite blog subjects - such as space travel.

In a follow up on the attempt to revive or at least converse with the Mars Phoenix lander, NASA folks have begun listening once again for any signs of life. The attempt began in January, but was unsuccessful. The martian sun is now higher in the sky and the temps are getting warmer so mission planners are trying again. It is unlikely that the Phoenix will “rise from the ashes” or should I say “frost”, but it would be interesting if it started operating again. Besides conducting some additional experiments, engineers could figure out which parts survived and which parts broke during the cold martian winter.

The Phoenix lander might be down for the count but another mission keeps producing interesting data. The Cassini mission to Saturn has revealed some cool new pictures of the moon Encaledus and has detected more signs of liquid water and chemicals needed for life as we know it. It is amazing that just a few years ago, Enceladus was considered a dead lifeless ball of ice and rock. Now astro-biologists think there is a chance (remote as it might be) that life could form in such an environment.

Another moon of Saturn has gotten a close up examination by Cassini. It is the moon Minas. It is a peculiar moon that has a large impact crater that makes it look like and “eyeball”. Minas is not as dynamic as Enceladus but it does hold one mystery. Why wasn’t it blown apart by the huge meteor impact? The crater on Minas is one-third the diameter of the entire moon. Many astronomers expect that such an impact should have blown the moon to “smithereens”. I can’t imagine there would be much left of the earth if it was struck by something large enough to create a crater one-third the diameter of the planet.

Another mission that is somewhat of a follow up is that of Stardust. It is on a path to rendezvous with the comet Temple 1. If that name sounds familiar, it should. This is the same comet that was blasted by the satellite Deep Impact back in 2005. It was a spectacular explosion on the surface of Temple 1 and the mission was a great success. Even though the official stated mission of Deep Impact and Stardust is to study comets, I wonder if the real primary mission was test how easy it would be to destroy or alter the course of a comet. In any case, Stardust should be able to see what damage was left behind by Deep Impact. We will see around February 14th of 2011. Less than a year away!

In human space travel news good news has arrived from the moon. India’s lunar satellite Chandrayan-1 returned data from the north pole of the moon indicating large amounts of ice just below the surface. If we are going to build bases on the moon we will need plenty of water and it would be almost impossible to transport all we need from the earth.

Of course we will need new rockets and space vehicles to transport us to the moon someday and private space ventures could help out a great deal. In this article, Burt Rutan of Scaled Composites makes the case for sub-orbital flights as essential before getting into orbit. The key aspects of the sub-orbital flights (by Virgin Galactic) will be to prove safety, reduce cost, and develop new technology.

Of course Scaled Composites and Virgin Galactic are not the only players in the market for commercial human space flight. Another company - Blue Origin - has been secretly developing a new rocket capable of vertical take -off and landing. They recently held a press conference but did not let out many new details as to their progress.

Have a fine Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Space