The sunshine and dry weather sure hit the spot Tuesday.  I can’ wait for another such day, like Wednesday, to get outside in the yard and work in the garden without being up to my ankles in mud!   It is so odd how different each growing season can be.  This June through the 18th, the Wausau area has had over 3″ of rain already, which is about .40″ above normal.  Since January we are running about 5.0″ above normal for precipitation.  Last year we were already quite dry by this point with some lawns turning brown.  Well take advantage best you can of the current mini-dry spell because a wet period could be building once again.  We will have a feed of deep moisture coming up from the south late this week into early next week.  This combined with a front meandering back and forth in our region and a fairly strong jet stream coming in from the Plains will likely lead to numerous blobs of heavy rain and thunderstorms.  This is the type of pattern where some locations can end up with flooding type moisture.

As a general rule, there should be widespread 1 to 3″ rain amounts total over the seven day period ending next Tuesday all the way from Montana to Michigan according to the Weather Prediction Center of NOAA.  As you’ll notice on their map below, the heaviest bulls-eye is pegged for eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Some of those areas should have around 4.0″.  To be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if localized 6.0″ amounts end up drenching this area.  That heavy load of water falling on already saturated soils and fairly high streams could lead to trouble.  Well, what can you do?  Well certainly keep the raincoat, umbrella, and boots handy.  Make sure your sump pump and rain gutters are in good working conditions.   Make sure you have a good set of windshield wipers on your vehicle.  Otherwise monitor the situation day by day, and stay alert to rapidly changing conditions.   One of the basic rules we all must remind ourselves of is, “turn around, don’t drown.”  Most flooding fatalities occur while people are in automobiles.  We will certainly pass along updates as the situation unfolds.

Posted under Flooding, forecast, Storms, Summer

Another Snowmelt Contest update: The snow made it through the weekend! There is still a fairly large pile of snow on the mountain that should last a few mroe days (judging by past experience). If you check these picture from today with pictures taken over the last couple of weeks (see here and here), you will notice the pile has melted a lot. Enough that I am unsure whether we will break the record for the latest snowmelt date we have ever had in the contest.

Snowmelt Pictures from June 17th

The key thing will be this weekend. If the temperature rises into the 80s, and maybe near 90 from Friday through Sunday (with lows remaining near 70) AND there is some heavy rain each day (thunderstorms are in the forecast), then this weekend could be it. If we only get a couple of thunderstorms and high temps stay in the low 80s, then the snow will have a good chance of breaking the record. June 24th is the record and that is next Monday. I officially forecast June 25th. Good luck everyone!

Have a pleasant Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Snowmelt 2013

In “Bad For Science“, I mentioned a couple recent events that were bad for the advancement of science in general. One of those events was the conviction (for manslaughter) of seismologists in Italy for failing to properly predict the severity of an earthquake. Predictions about the earth, whether the weather in the air or movements of the ground, are not perfect. Most people are aware of this. Predictions get better every year but most people have a good understanding of the variable nature of….nature. So it was surprising to hear of this conviction of the seismologists. The good news is that the scientists have appealed their conviction. From my far away perspective, I fail to see why they should be convicted of manslaughter. I hope the conviction is overturned. If not, I wish Italy good luck finding any new seismologists to help protect citizens from earthquakes.

Have a fine Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Earthquake, Science

I while back, I heralded Norman Borlaug in the blog for finding a solution to feeding the world’s growing population. Some might argue that creating a new strain of wheat with a higher yield was not good for overall health, but it was a solution that help to keep hundreds of millions of people from starving and dying. In today’s world, we need more solutions in order to feed potentially 9 billion people by 2050 (although demographers debate whether or not we will eventually reach 9 billion in this time frame). One consideration in planning to feed more people is how the climate will change over time. The leading theory – AGW – would indicate a challenge dealing with warmer temperatures. To meet this challenge, an international group of scientists has created new computer models to predict the best methods and adaptations that will need to be undertaken in order to grow enough food.

I like the effort and it will no doubt help plan for the future in some ways, however, there are some very simple actions that could achieve a lot of progress toward feeding more people that could be done right now.

1. Grow a garden. It is not that difficult to establish a backyard homestead. Once established, a family can feed themselves on as little as a half acre (some people even say a quarter acre is sufficient). Look around at all the suburban sprawl in the U.S. There are hundreds of thousands of yards that are a half acre or bigger. Most of them are just growing grass. If the world needed food, these could be a source. Gardening is not rocket science. It is easy. It just takes effort.

2. The U.S could stop turning over 40% of the country’s corn crop into ethanol to be burned in cars. I have heard some people state that we could wipe out hunger in the world today – right now – if all of that corn was not mandated to be burned and instead sent around the world to feed people. I don’t have the exact numbers available right now, but it is not that far-fetched that this volume of corn would be enough to feed the starving people of the world. In other parts of the world there are large palm oil plantations using up former forest-land and potential future farmland, just to produce biofuel. If these areas were freed up for food-farming (even a small percentage) that could help fill the gap in food security.

3. We could eat less. I say “we” as in reference to most citizens of industrialized nations. “We” are actually killing ourselves by eating too much. In much of the world, obesity is now a bigger societal problem than mal-nutrition, hunger, and starvation. Obesity is an epidemic in the U.S. It would appear that there is plenty of surplus food to go around already in 2013.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Gardening

With Sandy fresh in many people’s memories, the NOAA hurricane forecast for 2013 is probably a bit unsettling.  They are calling for an above normal North Atlantic hurricane season once again.    Of course it mostly matters, how many of those storms actually hit a populated land area.  That is nearly impossible to tell in my opinion this early into the game.  You can read their full press release below.

NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes continues

In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued in late May, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year.

For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

“With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator. “As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline. Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall.”

Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:

• A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;
• Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and
• El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.

“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa.”

NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook is not a hurricane landfall forecast; it does not predict how many storms will hit land or where a storm will strike. Forecasts for individual storms and their impacts will be provided throughout the season by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.

New for this hurricane season are improvements to forecast models, data gathering, and the National Hurricane Center communication procedure for post-tropical cyclones. In July, NOAA plans to bring online a new supercomputer that will run an upgraded Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model that provides significantly enhanced depiction of storm structure and improved storm intensity forecast guidance.

Also this year, Doppler radar data will be transmitted in real time from NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft. This will help forecasters better analyze rapidly evolving storm conditions, and these data could further improve the HWRF model forecasts by 10 to 15 percent.

The National Weather Service has also made changes to allow for hurricane warnings to remain in effect, or to be newly issued, for storms like Sandy that have become post-tropical. This flexibility allows forecasters to provide a continuous flow of forecast and warning information for evolving or continuing threats.

“The start of hurricane season is a reminder that our families, businesses and communities need to be ready for the next big storm,” said Joe Nimmich, FEMA associate administrator for Response and Recovery. “Preparedness today can make a big difference down the line, so update your family emergency plan and make sure your emergency kit is stocked. Learn more about how you can prepare for hurricane season at www.ready.gov/hurricanes.”

Next week, May 26 – June 1, is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. To help those living in hurricane-prone areas prepare, NOAA is offering hurricane preparedness tips, along with video and audio public service announcements in both English and Spanish, featuring NOAA hurricane experts and the FEMA administrator at www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/.

NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific basin is for a below-normal hurricane season and the Central Pacific basin is also expected to have a below-normal season. NOAA will issue an updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

Posted under Hurricanes, Storms

Another update for the Rib Mountain snowmelt contest. There is still snow on the mountain, so if you guessed today’s date, you are out of luck. The R-Store coupons and gift cards will remain in our possession for a while longer. Based on the size of the biggest snow-pile left on the mountain, I am almost 100% certain it will last for one more week. I am less certain that it will last 2 weeks and set a new record for the latest snowmelt we have ever seen during the contest. I think the one factor that has sped the melting up a bit more than a lot of people might have expected is all of the rainfall. If the weather had been cool and a bit drier this Spring, it would almost be certain the snow would last into July. As is, it looks a little doubtful we will make it to July 1st.

Snow Pile on June 11th

Speaking of snow melting. Have you ever wondered what Antarctica would look like without ice and snow. For your viewing pleasure, take a look at this recent work based upon the best known topography of the continent. Now, what would really make the image cool, is if someone would add some green color to areas of the “ice-less” Antarctica, then we could see what it looked like before it was iced over permanently hundreds of thousands of years ago.

Perhaps this depiction of Antarctica was driven by the thought that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) will melt all the ice off the continent in a few short decades. This is a fairly common belief, however, new research has thrown a little wrench in the theory of ice sheets. Ice sheets might have been more stable (in the past) than previously thought. Changes in the earth’s crust might have made ancient sea levels seem higher than they actually were, meaning that perhaps higher shorelines in the past were not due to the collapse of ice sheets. If ice sheets are more stable, that is good news. Even if AGW theory and models proves 100% correct, it would mean that perhaps the sea level will not rise as much as previously thought. This might also help explain why Antarctic ice is expanding, even as the air and ocean temperature has risen a bit over the last couple of decades.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

You probably know that researchers have been studying things like ice cores, tree rings, and animal behavior to better understand climate change.  However did you know they also look to pollen for clues?  As it turns out, as carbon dioxide increases in the atmosphere generally pollen does as well.   However in areas where drought is becoming more common, that may not always be the case.  Changes in vegetation caused by changing weather patterns can be tracked for thousands of years with some specificity using this method.  They generally find the pollen in sediment cores on the bottom of ponds, lakes, and oceans.  That’s really interesting.  You may be looking at the daily pollen count and complaining because it is too high.  It definitely would put a perspective on it to see a running graph for hundreds or thousands of years to see how it compares.

There is a nice article from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center on this pollen-climate change link with many more details.   Please check it out at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/picture-climate-what%E2%80%99s-smaller-pinhead-can-tell-us-about-climate

Posted under AGW, Allergies, Climate Change, Nature

There was quite a stir in media, climate, and environmentalist circles recently when carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere as measured atop the mountain at Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii reached 400 parts per billion. It is the highest concentration of carbon dioxide measured at that location since measurements began back in 1958. The rising levels of carbon dioxide have caused quite a bit of consternation as you know because leading climate change theories project “dangerous” warming of the planet in decades to come. That is possible, however, people in the U.S. no longer need to shoulder most of the blame.

For years, perhaps decades, even as the air and water in the U.S. was cleaned up dramatically (since the 1960s and 1970s), the U.S. was constantly pilloried for wrecking the planet and destroying the environment. The U.S. was at one time the greatest source of some types of pollution in the world, including carbon dioxide emissions (to the extent it is “pollution” in modern AGW parlance). This is no longer the case. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere might have reached 400 parts per billion, but it was not because of the United States. As I have highlighted recently, in contrast to almost every environmental and energy agency prediction, U.S carbon emissions have gone down DRAMATICALLY.

One of the major reasons for the huge drop in emissions is that we are using more natural gas (and I think this is a very good bridge fuel to the future), but the other reasons are more structural at a societal level. The U.S. and a few other places in the world are gradually divorcing the car (see here as well). It is no surprise to me that younger generations do not want to spend so much of their disposable income and time supporting an auto-based lifestyle. I try to save all the money I can by driving less. Maybe my constant blogging about the benefits (more health and wealth) of not driving cars is sinking in. Here are a couple of other data points that confirm this trend. Since 2006, miles driven in the U.S. have slowly declined. Gas consumption has also been going down in recent years. There are some people who argue that this is bad news because gas consumption has correlated quite well with economic activity in past decades. This is a valid point and probably constitutes part of the reason for the decline (poor economic conditions). However, people also vote with their wallet. They are buying more fuel efficient vehicles. Companies with fleets of vehicles are aggressively pursuing more efficient options – even with long haul trucks. Younger generations are smart enough to forgo cars altogether because they are such a hassle (higher taxes every year, maintenance costs, etc.). From an environmental perspective, it is an extremely positive trend. If this continues, which is quite likely in my view, the U.S. will continue to lead the world in reducing carbon emissions. Whether it was planned or not, the U.S. is leading, even without high carbon taxes or other international-based regulations.

So if younger generations are not driving as much (and they are not having as many kids – which is another great trend, from an environmental perspective), what are they doing? Spending more time on the Internet/phones. They stay connected in different ways. So that might lead one to conclude that carbon emissions are just being shifted from cars to servers. This is true to some extent, and communications are taking a larger piece of the energy pie, but it is much more efficient and less polluting than driving cars. Plus, networks are no where near as efficient as they could be. More waste heat could also be captured from large server centers. Major upgrades at companies like Facebook, Google, and Amazon, are lowering the energy needed to run the world’s websites. Just like younger generations choosing to save money and time by not driving as much as their parents, it is absolutely in the best interest of tech/Internet companies to be more energy efficient.

The Cree 40W LED bulb

Finally, there is another story that has been developing in the past few years that points to a more energy efficient future and that is LED lighting. One company I profiled about 5 years ago was trying to start the LED revolution. It didn’t work out. They could not produce a cost competitive product. Enter CREE into the picture. They are selling a new LED bulb that is much more cost competitive. You can find it, as I did, at the Home Depot. The 40 watt version is only $10. This is a bit more costly than compact fluorescent (CF) bulbs but they are rated to last more than 20 years (using them 3 hours a day). Prices will likely come down as volume expands in the future. They don’t have any of the toxic metals either. The color of light from the bulb that I purchased is very close to the traditional light that comes from incandescents. It is a nice soft yellow-ish light. These are likely the only bulbs I will be purchasing for replacements in the near future. Lighting is a significant percentage of our energy usage around the world. LED lighting will help to reduce that percentage. Another win for the environment.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Environment, Pollution

First a little update on the issue I brought up before leaving on vacation, and that is seemingly perverse economic incentives in the U.S. Many policies used to stimulate the economy are often not good for the environment. The issue is about housing and how housing prices have shot up a bit and new building is up as well in markets like Phoenix, Las Vegas, South Florida, and Southern California. Now the New York Times is also exploring the recent housing recovery, highlighting the fact that investors are buying up property and driving up prices, while regular folks are getting priced out (in some spots). Environmentally speaking, with over 12 million vacant housing units in the country (which is considered a very low estimate by some analysts), there should be plenty of housing for everyone that needs it, thus making it unnecessary to pave over more land for more sprawl. What does everyone else think about the national policy of incentivizing more house-building, even though there is a huge glut of empty houses on the market? Good? Bad? Not sure?

As an aside, another negative side effect of increasing sprawl is the increased chance of intense flooding in urban areas. A lesson learned in Europe recently, is that if you take away much of the natural landscape (like swamps and marshland), then most of the rain water will just run off and create flooding.

Another incentivized activity in the U.S. (and many places around the world) is the production of biofuel. In the U.S. this is mostly corn or grain ethanol. I have written many times in the past about how this does not seem to be a worthwhile national pursuit and something I witnessed recently really cemented that feeling. It was slashing and burning of forests, here in Wisconsin. It is something that is always talked about in “other countries” and it is often regarded as a bad practice for the environment. I saw the large forest being slashed and burned along highway 29 the last time I travelled to western Wisconsin. I am amazed at how much land is being cleared in the last couple of years to make way for corn fields. Once again, I have to mention that I don’t hold farmers responsible. They are just trying to earn a living. They own the land. They can decide how to use it. I do have to question the wisdom of national policy-makers.

Slashing and burning on a small scale will not be too disruptive in Wisconsin, but all of the former grassland and forestland that is being converted to grain production is bound to have an effect over time. One thing that is being affected is bee-keeping. Bee Colony Collapse Disorder is still somewhat of a mystery, but chemicals (pesticides and herbicides) and destruction of habitat (due to urban sprawl and the ethanol mandate) are leading candidates for the recent surge in bee population declines. Yet another reason to perhaps move away from ethanol (gas) burning engines in cars (and toward electric vehicles), is that higher levels of metals (from exhaust) can interfere with bee metabolism and reproduction.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Ecology, Pollution

A Big Snow Pile on Rib Mountain

Hi everyone! I just got back from Rib Mountain with a couple of pictures of the snow that is remaining. We are down to just a couple of big piles of snow. I have included a picture of the biggest one in this post. Based upon my experience, a pile this big, with normal June weather, will take about 2 weeks to melt. If the weather stays cool, we could be talking about a record late snowmelt date for the contest. For reference, the latest the snow has ever melted off Rib Mountain (during the contest) is June 24th.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Snowmelt 2013