It’s hard to believe May only has a week left!  Where did the time go?  We have had some spurts of warm weather and bouts of wet weather in May.  Will this continue into June?  It’s a month of graduation parties, camping, weddings, and harvesting some of the early season crops like strawberries and spinach.  This year, farmers will be trying to finish up planting crops in the early part of the month because the slow spring has them behind a few weeks.  Of course it will be the month of harvest for the first crop of hay for many farmers as well.  Often that occurs in May, but again everything is a bit behind with the cold pattern we had earlier this spring.   And don’t forget, the grass on your lawns often grows faster in early June then any other time of the year.  So there will be plenty of lawn mowing to do as well.  So a lot is riding on June weather.

The Climate Prediction Center is predicting temperatures to average out above normal over the western half of the nation with the greatest odds of being above normal in the southern Rockies to west Texas.  They forecast equal chances of above, normal, or below normal temperatures for the rest of the nation including Wisconsin.   Around here, normal June temperatures would be highs in the 70s to low 80s with lows in the 50s to near 60.

The CPC is projecting drier than normal conditions in much of the western U.S. down into the Southern Plains and Texas.  Meanwhile, again there are equal chances of being wet, normal, or dry from the Northern Plains through Wisconsin into the eastern part of the country.  We typically get about 4.0″ of rain in June across Wisconsin.

It will be interesting to see how it all turns out.  One way or another it will feel like summer.  I’m sure most people will find a way to appreciate and enjoy it.

Posted under CPC Outlook

Many blog readers know that I promote conservation and alternative energy in order to reduce pollution and other negative effects on the environment. Throughout the decades of covering this theme, I discovered that many policies pursued for economic growth are diametrically opposed to the goal of limiting our impact on the environment. Take a look at “Housing Starts Are Negative“, “Housing Starts are Positive?”,  or “FED says-build more houses” for more discussion of the topic.

This topic reared its ugly head once again in some housing data released recently. Make sure you are sitting down before continuing on. The supposed “good” economic news in this report is that in Las Vegas, housing building permits are up 57% since last year. Set aside the “building-for-growth’s-sake” detriment for a minute and focus on a couple other items from Las Vegas. According to a University Of Nevada Las Vegas study, the city currently has over 40,000 vacant homes! Even more amazing is that lower and middle income people cannot find houses to buy. Why? Many financial analysts say large investment groups/banks/hedge funds are busy buying up property and building new property using cheap money coming from central banks around the world. See here. This has put upward pressure on homes prices and locked many of modest income out of the market.

So rich investors are buying (and building) to rent even though there is still an ENORMOUS glut of houses on the market in the U.S. Does this strike anyone as environmentally unsound? Does the country really need more sprawl when it already has millions of empty homes and strip malls littering the landscape? Some people are speculating that these investor groups hoping to rent property (a wealth preservation strategy) are going to have a tough go of it because rents will probably fall with so much property available. Renters have thousands of choices, even in small cities. They can pick and choose, and with falling real incomes in the U.S. they are going to be choosing value-priced housing. Which has more than a few people wondering:

Does the country really need another housing bubble and crash?

If the new housing “investors” (including some banks and some federal agencies) lose money AGAIN, will they need a bail out with taxpayer money AGAIN?!!

Shouldn’t we learn from our past mistake(s) and try to build more sustainable infrastructure (including hardening such infrastructure against severe weather). Here is a recent article that is obvious on its face, suburbs should be combining housing, shopping areas, public/government buildings together in order to save space and save energy. This must not be as obvious to some, since building for “economic growth” is the dominant paradigm.

Which brings me back to the thoughts detailed in “Housing Starts Are Negative” and related to some futuristic themes I detailed in “The Faster Changing Future” and “Information as Cheap Commodity“. The world is changing. The population growth rate is declining. Automation is really starting to affect large traditional job markets for humans. Knowing these things, we should be changing our economic way of thinking. Societies should probably focus a bit more on the people that are already here instead of looking to population growth, building more ”houses and roads”, and “consuming” large quantities of stuff as a way out of the morass. Maybe a little population decline would be a good thing. Our economic models would go bust, but the environment would be a lot better off. Maybe people would be better off as well. Maybe the world is crowded enough.

Have a pleasant Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Environment

Just a quick post this morning about the tornado devastation in Oklahoma. It reminds me of the discussion of SuperStorm Sandy. Check out this past post about SuperStorm risks, and this one about hardening infrastructure against violent storms. The cities in Oklahoma that were struck by the tornado could have used buried power lines. Stronger houses or more underground storm shelters would be beneficial. Maybe it is time to start considering underground shelters or large “storm rooms” for big public buildings like schools, factories, and churches. These are all great ideas, of course, but they all cost money. It is much cheaper to live in a trailer home even though the risk of dying in a severe weather event – in tornado alley no less – is much much greater. I am happy to see WPS is at least testing buried power cables in the Northwoods. I hope the test proves some benefit for buried cables, as then “downed” power lines would be one less thing to worry about in a severe weather situation.

UPDATE: Over the weekend I warned people about an upcoming threat of frost. At that point, it looked as if the highest threat of frost would be Saturday and Sunday morning. Now the main threat has shifted to Friday morning with only a minor threat of frost well to the northeast of Marathon county on Saturday morning. On Friday morning it is looking more likely that there will be a light frost across rural and low-lying areas of central Wisconsin. I am now forecasting a low of 35 even in the city. The Northwoods will have the highest chance of frost with some spots possibly seeing low temps in the upper 20s. I have NOT yet planted my peppers, melons, or tomatoes in the ground in my country garden and I will hold off on potting some tomatoes as well, until after Friday. I already have six frost sensitive plants in pots that I will have to (maybe) cover or move indoors Thursday night. I don’t need anymore to worry about. Hopefully this will be the last significant frost threat of the season. I plan on putting more plants in the ground this weekend.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Freeze, Gardening, Seasonal Items, Storms, Tornadoes

With tornado and severe weather season ramping up into high gear lately, it is a good time to review safety rules.  You probably have the safety tips for humans stuck in your head pretty well by now.  But how about for your pets?  What types of things do you need to have in place to keep them as safe as possible when a bad storm hits?  How about for caring for them in the aftermath?  The Humane Society of the U.S. has put together a comprehensive plan for pet owners.  You should definitely take a good look at this as there is much to learn on how to keep you precious animal friends cared for.  You will find it printed below.

• Put a collar with visible identification on your pets, including indoor-only pets.
• Keep pictures of your pets on hand for identification purposes. Ideally, you should also be in the photo.
• Create a pet emergency kit (see below). Items should be refreshed every few months.
• Talk to your neighbors about how they can help your pets if you are not at home if disaster strikes.
• Create a list of hotels that allow pets. Know where you can take your horses: Make arrangements with a friend or another horse owner to stable your horses if needed.

• Three-or-more-day supply of food in airtight, waterproof container, and drinking water.
• Bowls for food and water.
• Current photos and physical description of your pets, including details on markings.
• Medications, vaccination records and pet first aid supplies.
• Comfort items such as a toy and blanket.
• Small garbage bags.
• For dogs include: leash, harness and a sturdy carrier large enough to use as a sleeping area.
• For cats include: litter and litter box and a sturdy carrier large enough for transport.
• For horses include: Coggins tests, veterinary papers, identification photographs and vital information such as medical history and emergency phone numbers.

Posted under Education, Severe Weather, Storms, Tornadoes

This post is for all the gardeners and farmers out there who are at the cusp of planting frost-sensitive plants such as corn, tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, melons, etc… A good rule of thumb is to wait until after Memorial Day weekend. If there is frost after that point, there is nothing you can do except cover your plants. You can’t plant later into June, waiting for that last threat of frost to pass (which happens some years) because the growing season is not long enough around these parts.

So what does it look like this year? It looks like there will be a threat of frost this upcoming weekend – Memorial Day weekend. Particularly on Saturday and Sunday morning. How much of a threat? It looks like frost is highly likely in some of the traditional cold spots, such as low lying areas in the northwoods (Eagle River, Land O’ Lakes, Jennings, Parts of Lincoln county, etc.) If you live in these areas and follow the weather, you know if this means your garden.

For central Wisconsin, at this time, it looks like a moderate threat of frost in low lying areas – places like Ringle in Marathon county, or the Stevens Point airport area. In the city or more urban areas, I am not too worried about the threat of frost. Low temps will probably stay in the upper 30s in these areas. I have planted some basil in pots and I plan to plant some tomatoes in pots this week (in the city), because I feel the threat of frost is quite low (in the city). I have planted some pepper and chard SEEDS in my country garden, but I HAVE NOT put pepper, melon, or tomato PLANTS in my country garden yet. I am holding off to see whether the threat of frost (for Memorial Day weekend) will materialize or become more significant. I hope this helps in your garden and planting planning for the next week or so!

(Supplemental info: cranberry farmers – it goes without saying, get ready for frost)

Posted under forecast, Freeze, Seasonal Items, Spring

I’m sure you’ve heard a phrase like, that was a 100 year downpour, or a 50 year flood that we just had.  It’s important to know how frequently any one area can expect such rain events because it allows planning of infrastructure, buildings, roads, sewers, and so on to handle it.  The last time these numbers were updated was 1963, (yes 50 years ago).  It’s about time I would say.  Below is a brief article about this topic from the National Weather Service Green Bay website.  There is a link within it to take you directly to the new chart of rainfall frequency in Wisconsin.  For example in Wausau, the frequency of getting 1.30″ of rain in a 10-minute span is once every 100 years.   The frequency of getting 4.5″ of rain in Wausau in a 24-hour span is once every 25 years.   This is very interesting stuff.  Check it out.

Interests in private industry, government and academia have eagerly awaited the publication of new precipitation frequency estimates for Wisconsin as well as sixteen other Midwestern and southeastern states. Those estimates were recently published by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development as Volumes 8 and 9 of NOAA Atlas 14, a web-based publication available at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc
The Wisconsin precipitation frequency estimates are available directly at:
http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=wi
The last time that these estimates were updated was in 1963.

Precipitation frequency estimates are estimates of climate variability. They are used as design standards for civil infrastructure built to cope with rainfall and runoff such as storm water drainage systems, roads, bridges, culverts, small dams, roofs, airport runways, stream erosion control, pollution control systems, flood insurance rate maps, and soil conservation, just to name a few. These new estimates directly contribute to the preparation of more cost-effective designs, plans and maps for protecting life and property and preventing pollution.

NWS precipitation frequency estimates–prepared since the 1950s–are cited as design standards in many Federal, State and Local Government regulations. These new NOAA Atlas 14 volumes will result in new design criteria for a large range of engineering and planning projects.

Posted under Education, Flooding, Natural Disasters

The pattern of extreme changes continues this spring.  Perhaps you heard about the huge ice shoves this past weekend that pushed mega piles of ice off Lake Mille Lacs in Minnesota.  Homes and property on the southeast shore were damaged heavily as 35 mph northwesterly winds piled the floating up onto shore like a moving glacier.   You can watch the ice in action from the following link.  http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/ice-needle-shoves-surges-terrorize-great-lakes/12337031

Also a lake west of Winnipeg in Manitoba piled up ice 27 feet deep into some homes.  That is one of the weirdest natural disasters I can think of.  The wind that produced the ice pile ups was part of a deep trough of low pressure north of Lake Superior which drove the very chilly weather down into Wisconsin this past weekend.  Of course we had several record low temperatures Sunday night across Wisconsin.    The cold air is moving east.  In fact frost and freeze advisories were posted Monday night from portions of North Carolina northward to Maine.

Meanwhile red flag warnings have been posted into Tuesday in an area from Montana Iowa and Minnesota.  An intense burst of heat that originated in the Desert Southwest of the U.S. is shooting northeast across the country.  Highs could be close to 100 around Omaha, NE with 90s into southern Minnesota.  This coupled with low humidity, gusty winds, sunshine, and dry fuels will make for dangerous fire conditions.  Burning is prohibited and residents are asked to avoid any activities that could lead to sparks.

Red Flag Warnings are Pink. Frost and Freeze Warnings in Eastern U.S. in blue.

Just maybe the weather patterns will settle into something closer to normal over the next few weeks.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out.  The cold air intrusions have to run out sooner or later.  By the way we are getting to the point where gardeners wonder if we have seen the last frost for the season.  The average last frost date across Wisconsin varies from late April near Lake Michigan to early June in some northern areas.  So we are certainly getting a little safer from the cold with each passing day.

Posted under Fire, Freeze, Gardening, Heat, Natural Disasters, Records, Seasonal Items, Spring

It sure is amazing to think about the vastness and complicated nature of the universe.  Billions and billions of stars, planets, and unknown objects all behaving physical laws that we don’t even come close to fully understanding.  It is definitely cool to get little glimpses into the inner workings of the cosmos from technology such as the Hubble Space Telescope.  Recently it sent back some cool images of the remnants of a star gone supernova.  The information below regarding this event is from NASA’s website.

Credit: ESA / Hubble & NASA. Acknowldegement: Claude Cornen

These delicate wisps of gas make up an object known as SNR B0519-69.0, or SNR 0519 for short. The thin, blood-red shells are actually the remnants from when an unstable progenitor star exploded violently as a supernova around 600 years ago. There are several types of supernovae, but for SNR 0519 the star that exploded is known to have been a white dwarf star — a Sun-like star in the final stages of its life.

SNR 0519 is located over 150 000 light-years from Earth in the southern constellation of Dorado (The Dolphinfish), a constellation that also contains most of our neighboring galaxy the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Because of this, this region of the sky is full of intriguing and beautiful deep sky objects.

The LMC orbits the Milky Way galaxy as a satellite and is the fourth largest in our group of galaxies, the Local Group. SNR 0519 is not alone in the LMC; the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope also came across a similar bauble a few years ago in SNR B0509-67.5, a supernova of the same type as SNR 0519 with a strikingly similar appearance.

You can learn much more about Hubble, its operation, and its missions from the following link.  http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/main/index.html

Posted under astronomy, Space

As greenhouse gas induced warming of the climate continues, the water cycle will be changing across the globe.  This is the conclusion of a recent study led by William Lau of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland.  He and his team used 14 different climate models to to simulate 140-year spans that ingested varying levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.  The basic findings are that for every 1 degree F temperature rise across the world, heavy rain events will increase by 3.9%.  Meanwhile moderate rain events will decrease by 1.4%.  Also prolonged droughts will increase by 2.6% for the same 1 degree temperature rise caused by increased carbon dioxide.  Light rain events are projected to climb by 1%.

The heavy rain events are forecast to increase the most in tropical zones especially in the Pacific Basin and Asian monsoon regions.  On the other hand the more prolonged droughts should especially impact the southwest U.S., northern Africa, northwest Australia, coastal Central America, and Brazil.

The decrease in moderate rain events is troubling since that is the type of rain that is most beneficial to crops and other plant life.

You can read more about this study from the following link.  http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/wetter-wet.html

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Science

We don’t get to the use the word “historic” or the words “all-time” very often, but it has happened a couple of times in the last 2 years. First it was the “all-time” warmest March for the state of Wisconsin (and most cities in the state) last year. This year it is just the opposite. We can’t seem to get rid of wintry weather and we just had a “historic” snowfall for not only Wisconsin but for Iowa and Minnesota as well. Not only did we end up with single day snowfall records for May 2nd (and probably today as well) for all three states, the snowfall has also broken the snow records for the entire month of May for all three states. Here are the old records for most snow in one storm for May:

Wisconsin: 10.0″  (new record 14.0″ but potentially as high as 17″)

Minnesota: 12.0″  (new record 15.4″)

Iowa: 10.0″  (new record 11.0″)

These are not officially in “the books” yet, but they look pretty solid. Climatologists will review the reports over the next couple of days and certify them.

And this comes after a very cool April, which was the 8th coldest on record for Wausau. If we had not seen the 5-day warm-up into the 70s and 80s at the end of the month of April, we would have easily set the mark for the 3rd coldest April and might have even challenged for second place. It was quite amazing that from February 1st through April 25th, we only had one day when the temperature hit 50 degrees (April 24th). We did not have any nice stretch of real Spring weather with high temps in the 50s and 60s. We jumped straight into Summer during the last 5 days of April, then we slipped back to Winter in a big way over the last couple of days. Here are the preliminary stats for April in Wausau:

Average High: 46.1  (normal: 54.8)

Average Low: 30.1 (normal: 33.3)

Precipitation: 4.39 inches  (normal: 2.73 inches)

Snowfall: 10.1 inches  (normal: 4.1 inches)

Highest Temp: 82 on the 30th

Lowest Temp: 14 on the 3rd

Have a fine Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Monthly Recap, Records, snow, Snow Totals, Spring, Winter Weather