I just wanted to update a blog entry from earlier this week. The official SPC blog announced that there were no tornadoes during the month of February in the entire U.S. In my blog entry I linked to the SPC online table of tornado statistics and it showed one tornado, so there was a small discrepancy. According to Rebekah who left a comment in the blog post, there was indeed 1 confirmed tornado in the U.S. during February. It occurred in California of all places. Having only 1 tornado is still a record low, but it is not quite as unique as having zero. One thing to remember is that the number of tornadoes in February does not really tell us much about the number of tornadoes we can expect for the rest of the year. If we continue to see large El Nino-driven storm systems moving through the southern half of the country during the months of March and April then it is likely we will have above normal tornadoes. The question then becomes: Is El Nino going to stick around through the Spring?
According to the latest monthly El Nino diagnostic discussion, El Nino will weaken but remain through about June.
El Nino Forecast to Slowly Weaken
The ENSO experts expect conditions similar to the winter pattern will continue for the U.S. So for the next month or two temps could be below normal and precipitation will likely be above normal precipitation in the southern half of the U.S. If a similar trend in the weather continues for our area for the next couple of months, I will not be very happy because that would mean continue dry conditions with above normal temps. It is not that I don’t like the sunny mild weather as of late, it is just that I don’t want to start out another growing season with a drought. I would rather see some big rain and snowstorms develop later this month and again in April. Unfortunately, for the next 7 to 10 days anyway, no significant storm systems are on the horizon, only a slight chance of light rain is coming this Sunday morning and perhaps again next Thursday.
Because of El Nino lingering into the Spring and maybe early summer, there could be many parts of the world that end up warmer than normal this year. This will no doubt bring more focus on the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) debate and spur a closer look at some of the theoretical drivers of AGW - such as methane being released from the arctic. I noticed one story about methane garnering some headlines this morning - “Methane releases from the Arctic might be larger and much faster than anticipated” and “Methane beneath Arctic seabed destabilizing“. As is typical, the research is reported in the most dramatic fashion possible with perhaps more foreboding than necessary. In at least one article (read here), two very key points are raised, no one knows how long this has been going on, and it is only a tiny fraction of the total methane released into the atmosphere each year. The area in question (the Arctic seabed near Siberia) was dry land during the time of the last ice age. It has been under water for thousands of years. If the water has warmed up the permafrost enough to release some methane, then this might have been happening for a long time already. In news from the arctic that could be seen as more positive, Alaskan glaciers have not been receding as fast as previously estimated. In any case, this is another data point for climatologists to consider when trying to calculate how the climate will change in the future. More observations and better data will make for better understanding and more precise forecasts.
In case you are intensely worried about AGW theory and forecasts, here is some good news about developments in alternative energy.
First of all, the price of oil continues to remain high - near and over 80 dollars a barrel. There is a complex dynamic interplay between the cost of traditional fossil fuels and the economic viability of alternatives. As long as the price oil remains high, further investment will occur in alternatives and more people will by the power generated from them. On the flip side, if alternatives can be manufactured more cheaply, then this will also increase their adoption. The price of solar power has been coming down recently and the trend should continue thanks to innovative research such as that occurring at 1366 Technologies. This company has found a way to create crystalline silicon solar cells that could lead to a cost of production 80% less than current methods. The only problem is that the cells are not likely to be as efficient at converting light into electricity as ones manufactured using traditional methods. Not right away. It might take a few years to upgrade the efficiency.
Another method to make solar cheaper is to employ the economies of scale. We have good news in this arena as well. Applied Materials recently jumped into the solar business and has developed production technology and machines to create the world’s largest solar panels.
More good news is that many new solar power installations are being constructed, even though the economic environment is not all that great and governments are cutting back on subsidies. In France, the largest solar power plant in the world is being constructed and should be completed in 2012. It should generate 143 megawatts at peak output which is enough to power about 62,000 homes. Interestingly, it will only employ 15 people. Employment is one part about alternative energy that I think is overstated. A lot of politicians love to talk about green jobs, but it is well known that wind power investment has not created many jobs in the U.S. and this was the case in Spain as well. Alternatives might be great for the environment but there is no guarantee that there will be an explosion of new jobs. “Green energy” jobs will grow, but at the expense of fossil fuel jobs and since it takes just a small handful of people to run very large solar installations (hooray for efficiency) one would think there would be a net job loss in the energy sector.
Of course, there is a lot of talk about the need for new infrastructure to handle all the new sources of alternative energy. Good thing the development of said infrastructure is occurring as we speak across a broad range of industries. Check out this list of 10 companies that are leading the way.
Even Ferrari is going green!The company is working on a sportscar hybrid. Even though they are known for gas guzzling super-cars, they say they have no qualms about creating “greener” vehicles. Their main concern is that performance is still tops in the world.
Have a nice weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.
Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, ENSO Update
This post was written by jloew on March 5, 2010
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Tags: 1366 Technologies, Alaskan glaciers, Applied Materials, Arctic sea, Ferarri hybrid, France solar power, large solar panels, methane emissions, Siberia, Siberian methane, wind energy jobs
We finally have some heavier rain moving into the area but as has been typical over the last year or so (some would say the last seven years), the heaviest rain will fall in the southern half of the area today, Thursday evening into Friday, and again on Saturday. Rain amounts could end up being an inch or so in a few spots in the southern half of the area over the course of the next 4 days. In the northwoods, it will likely only be a few tenths - but something is better than nothing.
On March 8, 2000, Milwaukee had their earliest tornado in a calendar year on record. An EF 1 Tornado touched down on the airport grounds and tracked through portions of Cudahy and St. Francis. The tornado was about 75 miles wide and packed winds up to 110 mph. At the time I was living in Racine and remember watching the coverage of this tornado…I think I remember either a
