The biggest neHaumaews of the day is the latest El Nino monthly discussion, released yesterday. El Nino has strengthened! It has now reached moderate strength(1 degree above normal) in 2 of the El Nino regions and is getting close in the other 2 regions.

El Nino Strengthens

The dynamical and statistical computer models mostly indicate that a moderate El Nino will continue through the winterand then start to weaken in March. Only 4 out of the 21 projections indicate a weakening El Nino starting already in December. What does it mean for our winter weather? It raises the odds that temperatures will be above normal (on average) and that snowfall will be below normal. It still does not guarantee we will have a mild winter, just raises the odds. What I expect is mild temps on average, punctuated by a couple periods of significantly colder and snowy weather. If we happen to get a couple big snowstorms then snow conditions could end up being fairly decent as well.

If we have less than normal snowfall, it will make me sad, not only because I like to see big snow in the winter, but because we still haven’t completely recovered from the late summer drought.

Drought in the North

The latest US Drought Monitorindicates a slight improvement in the Wisconsin over the last week. Big snow would help the improvement continue. Of course, if we had some rain over the winter, that might help as well, but I would rather have all snow. Drought conditions in the rest of the country have not changed all that much recently. Texas is doing slightly better and California is doing slightly worse. Californians are probably hoping for a stronger El Nino to help recharge their water resources. A strong El Nino usually brings a lot of winter precipitation to California, especially the southern 2/3 of the state.

Earlier this week I highlighted some extreme cold we experienced back in November of 1951. Just as a follow-up there was also a major snowstorm in the middle of the country during that time period in 1951. Here is an entry from the weather history book for today.

1951- Snow fell from the Texas panhandle to the Lower Great Lakes, leaving record totals of 12.5 inches at Saint Louis MO, and 14.1 inches at Springfield MO. Other heavier snowfall totals included 20 inches at Nevada MO, 13.5 inches at Sedan KS, 13 inches at Decatur IL, and 10 inches at Alva OK. In the Saint Louis area, up to 20 inches was reported in Washington County. (5th- 6th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

Wisconsin was mostly missed by the big snow, but of course we did experience some bitter cold.

Another follow-up, this time in space. Data is being assessed from the latest Cassini flyby of Enceladus and a new picture has been released: see here. So far, all that has been determined is that the plumes of water vapor/ice are less dense than originally thought. Cassini will make another flyby next year. I find it amazing that this tiny moon is active. I wonder what it would be like standing on the surface near the geysers.

Speaking of active objects in the solar system, it has been recently discovered that a Kuiper belt object - Haumae(smaller than Pluto) - has a dark red spot. It is not a spot like the one on Jupiter because Haumae is a solid planet/object. The astronomer who discovered the spot suggests that it was recently struck by another object or that some matter from the interior of the planet is bubbling to the surface. I find it amazing who much activity is occurring on what were long thought to be “dead” objects, planets, and moons.

Just for fun, how about some cool pictures of islands from space. The one I like the most is the one that shows an island as well as a cool fluid dynamics phenomenon(the atmosphere obeys the equations of fluid motion). The vortices are formed when the air moves around the island. The vortices remain stable for quite some time before dissipating. It would be interesting to be at the surface in that picture and look up through the holes in the sky. Since these are small scale phenomena, you might even be able to detect the swirling motion (most certainly if you constructed a time lapse of photos).

And one last time-waster: some cool optical illusions presented and explained at the San Francisco Exploratorium.

Have a fine weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Records, Space, Viewer pictures, Weather History

Al Gore’s new book “Our Choice: A plan to solve the Climate Crisis” has now hit the shelves.  If you are interested in reading the book or want to know more about the book…check out Katie Couric’s recent interview with Al Gore.  From the interview I get the impression that this book will take even more of a pro-active approach to solving the so-called “Climate Crisis.”  Gore says this movement is getting stronger but hasn’t reached the “tipping point” with the public.  And that it’s up to a grass roots style movement to reach this tipping point.  In the interview, Gore explains how people are hard wired for short term thinking..it’s just how we think.  We only want to think about how something is going to affect us in the near future, but that it is “immoral to not care about future generations to come” 

Gore seems very confident in this book…so much so that he refers to it as a guide to how we can solve the problem..he says it’s “the solution to the climate crisis”.  Wow…….that is saying a lot!!!!!  Does it really all rides on this book?  It’s all right here?  In these pages?  Maybe it is, I have yet to read it.  But I think the big question that remains…what is the extent of this climate crisis and how much are we responsible.  I won’t get too much into my opinion of global warming but I think it is foolish to say we are the sole reason the earth is warming over the past thousands and thousands of years.  The earth has changed so much way before humans even existed.  For as much as we know the temperature on earth has been fluctuating dramatically since the beginning of time.  Now that doesn’t mean I believe we shouldn’t do what we can to create a better environment for our kids… and their kids.  We definitely aren’t helping the cause, so it is now time to do our part.

One of the other big issues he touches on in the interview and the new book is our dependence on carbon based fuel and foreign fuel.  He believes the switch to renewable energy will kill 2 birds with one stone.  Not only will it improve the environment, but it will also boost our economy.  I agree…it’s almost like the creation of the Internet.  Didn’t Gore invent that too?…haha.  The research and creation of renewable energy products means countless new jobs.  But will it stop the earth from warming..I don’t think so..but at least it’s an effort to slow the process down.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Environment, Pollution, Uncategorized

I brought up the topic of hypocrisy last week in regards to an article from Newscientist praising China for being a paragon of clean energy development, even though they refuse to sign any new climate treaties (the U.S. would never get such treatment). A couple other recent articles made me think of hypocrisy again this week. This article - “Canada’s tar sands may be just too dirty” is an interesting look into the potential for Canadian tar sands to help provide the world with cleaner fossil fuel energy (another is this article about arctic sea ice). The more interesting aspect is that the analyses came from the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). Should there be a caveat in the article stating that WWF worked on the study and thus it might be biased? I ask because whenever a climate or energy study is funded and released by the energy industry, it is typically immediately and savagely derided as suspect because it was funded or somehow associated with “big oil” or “big energy”. How come studies supported or funded by environmental groups are not printed with caveats? I think it has to do with image instead of the actual data. The WWF has done a good job portraying themselves as the “good guys” vs. the “evil oil companies”, so of course, because their motives are “pure” they must be correct, right? This is not the case. What should matter is the data. Does it make sense? Has it been properly reviewed? I don’t care who does the study, as long as the process is transparent and the data adds up, then it should be factored into future policy decisions on energy and climate. If nearly every study presented by the “evil energy companies” is rejected and derided no matter the quality of the data or the soundness of the conclusions, then the same should happen with the WWF. What a minute, you say, maybe the WWF is not biased and has no ulterior motives. Although their mission is perceived as “good” they are squarely on one side of the AGW argument as can been seen in this post from the worldwide blog action day. They are completely convinced that humans are destroying the planet and that economic activity should be curbed very soon. The WWF has some good intentions but this does not automatically translate into unbiased science.

Another article that reveals hypocrisy is this one about “the right to dry“. This article discusses the energy savings that can be had by drying the laundry on an outdoor line. It is very environmentally friendly (and most likely good for health as well), yet it is banned in many U.S. communities. Typically these are communities like Malibu and Marin County California that claim to be environmentally conscious. Their environmentalism goes no deeper than their vanity and pocketbook. Drying clothes on a clothesline is banned because they are afraid their property values will decline. I don’t care if a community wants to ban outdoor clothesline (and I don’t think creating a “right to dry” is necessary) but the communities that ban such energy saving methods should not be heralded as saints of environmentalism.

On the topic of energy and pollution here is something interesting: Ecuador is offering to not drill for oil in the amazon rain forest if “the world” pays them 3.5 billion. It appears capitalism is alive and well. That being said, it seems unlikely that this would happen or that it would work without some strict conditions. What would prevent future Ecuadorian leaders from reneging on the deal? Could they police the area of the rain forest slated for protection? Might they mine these areas for other raw materials? Still, it is an interesting proposition that some world leaders are contemplating. Leaders in Ecuador have correctly taken the temperature of world sentiment and figures to profit.

Space News:

A follow up on Cassini’s Monday flyby of Enceladus. No definitive analysis of the chemical composition of the geysers yet, but a couple of cool pictures have been released -check here.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Space

So last year yesterday and today were record breaking days! If you can think back it was in the 70’s- talk about an Indian Summer! Highs were in the low 70’s for two days on the 3rd it hit 72 and on the 4th it hit 70 not bad at all for November.  Of course it was short lived and on the 7th we received our first Trace of snowfall last year.  I remember the first snowfall because it was on a Tuesday and I had been off that day.  A friend came to visit and we were headed to dinner, driving on the highway. Ironically,I wouldn’t drive because I was soooo scared! It had been 5 years since I had driven in snow and even with a four wheel drive SUV I was worried.  How times have changed, I obviously have gotten more used it! Hard to believe that was all just one year ago.

On that note next week is Winter Weather Awareness week and we will be covering many topics.  We had an early shot at winter this year with the first snowfall occurring between Oct. 10th and 12th.  Here are just a few tips to make sure you are prepared for winter:

-Make sure your vehicle is winterized for example anti-freeze and wind shield washer fluid that goes below 32 ( I learned this one the hard way last year!) and a bag in your car with the following: blankets, a flashlight and batteries, first-aid kit, non-perishable food, shovel and knife, scraper and brush, and cellphone. 

-Keep your tank as full as possible and if you have to travel in a storm try not to travel alone.

-Have a weather radio at home with batteries.

-Store some extra food at home that requires no cooking.

Since the Christmas music is beginning to play I guess we should start thinking about that time of year.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Records, Weather History, Winter Weather

I noticed that Kristen found a story about a space hotel projectdeveloping in Europe called Galactic Suite. Great find Kristen! It sounds great and competition is sure to drive innovation and efficiency however, I tend to think their time frame of 2012 is rather aggressive. They have yet to build a space port (launch pad) and as far as I am aware they have no hotel (pod) in space, and no spaceship. They plan to use Russian rockets to launch their spaceships into orbit, which is a good starting point since Russia seems much more friendly toward space tourism than NASA. As far as space hotels go, it seems Bigelow Aerospace is much farther ahead in the game as they already have 2 small inflatable “space hotels” in orbit that are undergoing tests. No word yet on how Bigelow customers will get to the hotels. Virgin Galactic should be launching people to the edge of space by 2011. So there are some optimistic trends, but Galactic Suite seems to have an unrealistic time frame.

While thinking about some of the odd weather occurring this year - hardly any severe weather, record dry September, nearly record cool and dry July - I happened across some old records that I had forgotten about. One particular stretch of extreme weather occurred in early November of 1951. During the first week of November in Wausau during that year we recorded 6 days in a row with record low temperatures and 5 days in a row with record cold high temperatures. It is not the coldest weather we have ever recorded but it is the longest stretch of consecutive cold temperature records in Wausau history. Here are the days and the temps (also one record snowfall):

• November 1st, Record Low: 10, Record cold high: 30
• November 2nd, Record Low: 0, Record cold high: 15
• November 3rd, Record Low: -1, Record cold high: 16, Record snow: 1.8 inches
• November 4th, Record Low: 5, Record cold high: 17
• November 5th, Record Low: 2, Record cold high: 23
• November 6th, Record Low: -3,

Earlier in the year (1951), on January 29th there was a record cold high temperature of -17 and the following morning, on January 30th, a record low temperature of -40 occurred and this tied the all time coldest reading in Wausau that was originally set on February 10th, 1899. I can’t even begin to imagine the complaints from people if we suffered such extreme cold in the present day.

Lastly, a follow-up on a controversial issue regarding electric vehicles and loans available for manufacturing said vehicles. There was quite a bit of concern that the Aptera car would be classified as a motorcycle and thus not qualify for the government loans. Now the Department of Energy has extended the loan program to energy efficient 2 and 3-wheeled vehicles. Hopefully this will help keep Aptera in business and in line to win the Automotive X-prize.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Records, Space

We have had several previous blogs outlining how ridiculously quiet this years severe weather season was across not only our area but most of the Midwest.  It was almost boring at times this summer in the StormTrak 9 weather center.  I’ve gotten accustumed to 10 a.m. till 2:00 a.m. days by the time May rolls around.  I don’t think I had one of those days this year.  The Fall/Winter edition of the N.W.S. Packerland Weather Newsletter has summed up this historically quiet period.

-Only 10 severe weather events(one inch hail or larger, or winds 58 mph and above, or tornado) occurred in the NWS Green Bay forecast area which includes much of our viewing area.  This is the fewest reports ever recorded in a season.

-For only the second time in history, no tornadoes were reported in the forecast area.

-For the first time ever, the N.W.S. office did not issue one Tornado Warning.

-For the first time in over 30 years of weather data, there were no reports of severe weather from May through July.  There was actually no severe reports from April 25 to August 2.  To me this is one of the craziest facts to believe.  This is the heart of our severe weather season in Wisconsin, especially June, and we didn’t have one severe thunderstorm in the N.W.S. Green Bay forecast area…..Wow!

Undoubtedly this was one of if not the quietest severe weather season ever on record.  It is however important to point out that this was the first year the new hail criteria of one inch was used.  In the past, the severe hail criteria was only 3/4 of an inch.  So it’s not exactly fair to compare this years numbers to the past.

Thanks Jeff Last, Linda Skowronski, Roy Eckberg, and Scott Cultice with the N.W.S. for providing us with Packerland Weather News

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Severe Weather, Storms, Weather History

I posted my next story on my Wonder page.  This weeks is about why ducks migrate and how weather plays a significant role.  Of course, it makes them move locations but there are specific systems that really signify when they will migrate.  Also, different ducks move at different times.  For all the answers head over to my page.  Feel free to send me an email if you have a question to ask!

On a whole different note, I heard about this this morning on a talk show.  It sounds very interesting.  In 2012 you will be able to vacation in space, not just visit but stay 3 days.  The bummer it costs only 4.4 million dollars!!!! Barcelona based architects are building “The Galactic Suite Space Resort” which is planning to accept its first guests in just over 2 years. 

During the stay they would see the sunrise 15 times a day and travel around the world every 90 minutes traveling at 30,000 km/hr! It will also take a day and a half on a transport rocket to reach the “hotel”.    

Before their trip they will have to go to Spaceport an island where the guests will participate and prepare for their journey in space.  Some have said the training could take weeks before they would be able to go on their actuall vacation.  Already 200 people have expressed interest with 43 people reserving.   

Xavier Claramunt, a former aerospace engineer, and the CEO of Galactic Suite says that a space enthusiast granted 3 billion to finance the project. 

For more info check out:

1) Official Website

2) Article on the Project

Have a fantastic night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Science, Space, Travel, Uncategorized

I ought to update the AGW list one of these days. I am procrastinating because it is quite a chore. It is getting so long that it takes a while to cross reference any new headlines with the past ones to make sure there is no duplication. Well… one of these days, but not today.

Also, in case you haven’t checked it out lately, I have been recording a longer weather show for our webchannel. Check it out here: Let me know what you think.

How about a little space news to start out. The Cassini spacecraft is still orbiting Saturn and still returning interesting scientific information. Yesterday it made another dive through the plumes of ice (and water?) emanating from the south pole of Enceladus (a moon of Saturn). Here is a JPL blog post about it and an article from Newscientist. So why did mission planners send Cassini through the geysers once again? They are trying to get closer to see if they can detect any organic molecules. Some scientists think there could be liquid water in the interior and where there is water there is at least a slim chance of life - anyway, the carbon based life we are familiar with. If you polled astrobiologists or any astronomer 10 years ago, Enceladus would be one of the last places anyone would have suggested that life exists outside of earth. Now it is the object of intense study and gives a little hope that there might be liquid water present on other moons and planets as well.

In private space news SpaceX has set a launch date for the debut of its Falcon 9 rocket. It is scheduled to launch on February 2nd of next year- not written in stone though because you know how schedules can change depending on the weather or other launches occurring near that date. SpaceX hopes to get new contracts from NASA to launch payloads including future crew capsules. If you remember, SpaceX had quite a bit of trouble in prior years getting their Falcon1 off the ground. It seems they have worked out the kinks and I am happy to see them moving forward with the Falcon9. If regular folks are ever going to have a chance of exploring space, we will need to see continued success with private space companies.

The Leonid meteor shower coming up this month might be particularly strong on November 17th. The bad news is that Asia will be in night/dark during the expected peak of the meteor shower. Here in North America we will get the tail end of the peak but you might still be able to see some of the falling stars early in the morning if the skies are clear. Sometimes you can see a few meteors the night before or the night after as well - you just have to be a bit more patient.

When you are looking at the sky for meteors, you might also notice the milky way. If the view with your naked eye is not so great then you might want to take a look at the latest detailed panorama view stitched together by Axel Mellinger. You can click on the image and pan and zoom to see millions of stars that were not visible in past panoramic views of the Milky Way, check it out.

Lastly, the future of spaceflight could involve wings. Here are a couple of stories about secretive recent tests of supposed space vehicles. One occurred back on October 15th at Spaceport America in New Mexico and the craft was built by Lockheed Martin. They aren’t saying who or what it is for, but I wonder if it is related to the secret Air Force project, the X-37B. The “military space plane” will supposedly make it first trip to space on April 10th of next year.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Space

It’s only been 2 days… but so far November has faired better than October.  We topped above 50 degrees again with some beautiful sunshine.  We’ll have only one little hiccup in the forecast tomorrow night and early on Wednesday but then we expect things to warm up leading into the weekend.  How does 60 degrees sound?  It is a possibiltity by Saturday.  The computer models show strong warm air advection by Friday afternoon.  Here is a forecasted 850 mb temp map for Saturday.  Our 850mb temp for central Wisconsin is +12, that would equate to at least 60 if we saw sunshine.  We shall see.  Right now I have taken a conservative approach with middle to upper 50’s but don’t be surprised if a 60 squeaks in the forecast.

On a non-weather related note…I am still recovering from the Packers Loss.  Even though the outcome was not what most of us wanted, I must say Lambeau Field was just unreal on Sunday…what an atmosphere.  I will now be eating ramon noodles for a month to make up for the cost of the ticket.  Oh well, it was worth it.  Here are a couple pics I snapped..

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

Since Kristen already did a nice job recapping the numbers for October, I will just point you toward her blog post from yesterdayto get the details. The highlight of the month was that Marshfield set a record for the wettest October on record (6.11inches). Here in Wausau it was the 8th wettest and 8th coolest October on record.

The blog post will be a little on the short side today because I am heading out to a local school (can’t say where because it is a surprise) to hand out a $300 check for our “Tools for Schools” promotion. Some lucky teacher is going to receive a  check for $300 to spend on something to improve their classroom. If you know a class/teacher in the area that could use some money for new equipment, books, or other materials, head over to the WAOW webchannel and fill out the submission form.

Another promotion that the morning show is starting up once again is “Color the Weather”. We have a new sponsor - The Great Dane. In order to participate all you have to do is have your child color a picture while you are eating at the Great Dane restaurant. The pictures are sent to Natalie and I in order to determine a winner. There is one winner every week. We show the winning picture at 6:19 am every Wednesday. The winner’s family will also receive a gift certificate from the Great Dane.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Monthly Recap, Uncategorized