We may have touched base on this topic once before, but I thought that I’d bring it up again because there may be some confusion about it.  Starting tomorrow (Monday, October 1st), the National Weather Service will be implementing storm-based warnings.   This is a good thing mainly because it will focus severe weather warnings to specific locations and increase the accuracy of the warning.  Up until now, when the National Weather Service has issued severe weather warnings, whether it was a tornado or severe thunderstorm, the warning was issued for the entire county.  The storm being warned may have been confined to only one county or parts of counties.  For example, if a severe thunderstorm warning was on the border of Wood, Portage and Marathon counties, the warning had to be issued for all of Marathon, Wood and Portage counties.  That is a lot of people warned about the storm that didn’t have to be.  If you are in western Wood and Marathon counties, there may be blue skies above you leaving you questioning the accuracy of the warning, but the warning still exists and emergeny management has to follow proper procedures regardless of where the storm was actually located and moving.  With the new system, if the same thunderstorm warning were in effect for the border of Wood, Portage and Marathon counties, the warning would read something like this…a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for eastern Wood, western Portage and southern Marathon counties.  Note, that this is just an example of a warning, not a real one. 

So, how will the storms be represented?  Well, instead of an entire county being shaded, only the particular storm will be represented by a polygon.  Here at Newsline 9, we’ve already started to implement this system to a point.  One way is through our Doppler 9000 Plus.  Our warnings show the entire warned county in text format along with the graphical polygon warning for the atual storm, so you can clearly see what storm is severe.  The second way that we have implemented this is on our warning crawl system.  Even though, the whole county will be shown in the scrolling text, on the radar map, each indivual storm pops us with the radar and polygon area for the particular warning in that county.  If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment or an e-mail.  If you are interested in reading more, click on this link to read more on the benefits of the new storm-based warnings.

Now, onto the current weather situation.  Rain and some embedded thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours, heavy at times.  A fairly strong area of low pressure is centered over central Iowa right now and pass through southern Wisconsin by Monday morning, so expect showers linger as you head out to work and school on Monday.  Also, there may be some fog developing overnight so be extra careful while you are out driving!  Right now, it looks as if our winds are tapering down a bit and with abundant moisture around, that will allow for fog to form.  Justin will be back here tomorrow, thanks for reading and have a great night!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

The first update is on the current weather scenario for central Wisconsin.  This system has been a very tough one to forecast for, if the current track shifts just a little bit either west or east, that changes the entire forecast, but prediciting those little changes is what’s difficult, but at the same time are why I love meteorology and forecasting so much!  Most of the shower activity overnight Saturday that once again started in Nebraska stayed into Minnesota, but a couple of the showers and even an isolated storm did reach western and northern portions of the Badger State.  We will see a break from the action through around midday, maybe even a little later than that before a surface area of low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest.  We should also see some peeks of sunshine today and depending on how much sunshine we receive will determine how high our temps get.  Across southern parts of our viewing area, there may be enough sunshine for temperatures to get up into the middle 70s, while the Northwoods will have more clouds keeping them closer to 70 degrees.  Central Wisconsin can expected highs in the lower 70s.  It’ll also be fairly windy today too.  Winds are now out of the south with sustained wind speeds between 15-25 mph and higher gusts expected.

While the Storm Predicition Center does not have any part of our region under a slight risk for severe weather (at least, not right now), some of the storms that develop this afternoon could be heavy so if you have any outdoor plans, be sure to have a backup.  Click here to view the Storm Prediction Center’s area of concern for severe weather.  Rain and storms will continue through the overnight hours on Sunday as a second wave of low pressure pushes across western Wisconsin with some heavy rainfall possible as well.

Tropic Update:

Right now there are two storms out in the Atlantic and both of them are in environments not very favorable for strong development.  The first is Tropical Depression Karen.  Karen was a tropical storm, but strong upper-level winds helped to weaken the storm substantially.  If you would like to read the last Public Advisory for now on Karen, click here.  The other storm out in the eastern Atlantic is Tropical Storm Melissa.  Melissa recently developed in the same area as Karen and it is going to have the same problems as Karen did when it comes to staying orgainzed.  As of now, this storm is not expected to become a hurricane or affect land.  Instead, it will likely become a tropical depression in the middle of the Atlantic due to strong upper-level winds breaking the storm down.  To read more about Tropical Storm Melissa, click here.  The tropics overall haven’t been that active.  Believe it or not, we’ve only had 4 hurricanes and only one of those was a minimal hurricane for about 2 hours if that.   The season usually starts to wind down by the end of October so we’ll see what happens between now and then.

Have a great day!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

There are some days where the weather plays tricks on us and that is exactly what happened Saturday. Even Saturday morning, it looked like the rain was going to avoid us or at least weaken, but winds in the upper-levels of the atmosphere decided to take the rain over central Wisconsin . So, what happened? Last night, there were storms firing up across central Nebraska and Kansas with a vigorous upper-level disturbance. Meanwhile a warm front was trying to lift northward over the region. The area of rain and storms were expected to follow an area of low pressure at the surface. That low pushed into Minnesota – where we were forecasting the rain to go. Unfortunately, this disturbance had a mind of its own. Upper-level winds steered the rain complex in the same direction of the warm front and actually ahead of the surface warm front. But, the complex did break up a bit in the process. One section went north into Minnesota as we were expecting while the main section pushed right into central Wisconsin . Usually, these types of complex systems weaken as they head north, but that wasn’t the case this time. Somehow, it held together as it moved over central Wisconsin and that is why we saw the rain. What makes this even more complex is that winds at the surface were out of the southeast while the system itself is pushing northeast. So, clearly, it was the upper-level winds that pushed this system in the direction that it went. What about Sunday?

Well, another complicated storm system will arrive in the Upper Midwest. This system is currently exiting the eastern Rockies and is bringing storms to parts of Nebraska and Kansas yet again. The low will follow a similar path as before with the center of the low passing near Minneapolis and then into northwestern Wisconsin. This will be close enough to give us a decent amount of rain and also the chance for some stronger storms. Stay tuned to TV-9 and 34 for the latest updates! If you have any outdoor plans for Sunday, I would have a backup to go indoors.

If you missed our 10 pm newscast this evening, I’ll fill you in. Earlier this week on Thursday, I had the unique opportunity to visit Glacial Lakes Cranberries to find out how the weather affects cranberries. To read the script, Download Cranberry.doc or play the movie below to watch. I had so much fun and I learned a lot! I’d like to extend a special thank you to Glacial Lakes Cranberries for allowing me the wonderful opportunity to learn all about cranberries and weather. I’ll update the tropics on Sunday morning. Have a great night!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

By around midnight last night, temperatures were falling into the upper 4os, but winds were still coming out of the east at that time.  Shortly after, winds turned more southerly and only allowed temperatures to fall into the middle to upper 4os.  There are a few more clouds out there today than we originally expected.  Brian mentioned in last night’s post how warm front’s can be tricky when it comes to timing precipitation.  This is holding true.  Yesterday (Friday),  it appeared that the front was going to stay back in Minnesota, but now it is moving a little farther east.  Rain and storms are already affecting parts of southern Minnesota, but they appear to be moving more north than east.  With that in mind, if you have plans to be outside today, just have a backup or carry the umbrella.  Most of the activity will stay west of Marathon County, with only an isolated shower or storm from Marathon County on east.  Dew points are still in the 40s across much of the state, so we aren’t expecing a lot in the way of precipitation or thunderstorms.  A better probability for rain exists on Sunday as a cold front arrives.  The morning should start out dry, but than rain and storms will develop during the afternoon hours.  Some of these storms could be on the strong side so if you have any outdoor plans, make sure that you have a back-up to go inside.  I’ll have more on the forecast as well as an update on the tropics later this evening.  Have a great day!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

Last night a few towns in low lying valleys experienced a little bit of frost, including Prentice is Price County.  This certainly is not a rare occurrence for September, however the difference in temperature from city to city was pretty remarkable.  While most remained above 40 last night, several lower valleys dipped to below 35 degrees!!.  This is a classic example of "heavier" cold air sinking into the valleys.  The same may hold true again this evening. 

Another topic of interest will be the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.  Warm fronts tend to be a little more tricky with precipitation than cold fronts.  The latest runs on the forecast models show very little or no rain with the passing of the warm front tomorrow afternoon, and with dew points not very impressive, I can see why.  So right now, I think most will be dry through Saturday.  Sunday holds a much better chance for rain, with the cold front.

Forecast for the Packer game:  68 and overcast…yep there in a dome…

Have a great weekend..

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

The harvest moon was out a couple nights ago and early this morning it was still pretty full. The morning movie shows a clear sky and it looks like great weather is on the way for most of the weekend. Sunny skies today; breezy and warm for Saturday; then a chance of thunderstorms by late afternoon Sunday. Next week will also be mild with high temps in the upper 60s to low 70s from Monday through Thursday. Off-and-on rain could affect the area on Tuesday and Thursday. Without further delay, here is the morning movie:

Yesterday I had a ton of space exploration news to report but there was a computer glitch and most of the blog post was lost. Hopefully things will go better today (although, I already had to start over twice, arrrgggg!). Great news, I was able to contact the Japanese Space Agency JAXA. The bad news is that we won’t see any high definition video from the satellite until December. Below is an email correspondence with their public affairs department:

We really appreciate your warm message on our KAGUYA mission.

On Sep 14, the KAGUYA was separated from the rocket and injected into the orbit with 232.960 Km of apogee, 29.932 Km of perigee and the orbital inclination 29.932. Then, as shown in the News Flashs of our special site, we performed orbital maneuvers a few times to change its orbit. Now the KAGUYA, which is to orbit around Earth two and half times, is finishing the second round of the earth orbit. It will be close to Earth again then will start for the Moon between Sep.28 15:00 and 29 18:00(UT).

(I hope my explanation will be easy to understand.)

The information about the KAGUYA mission profile is available at:

http://www.selene.jaxa.jp/en/document/pdf/sat16.pdf

http://www.jaxa.jp/countdown/f13/topics/pdf/0921_0700_vc2_e.pdf

The operations listed below will follow; -LOI on Oct.4 (JST) (Please see the circuled Number 12 on the illustration in the latest News Flash.) -VRAD Release on Oct.9 (No. 13) -Relay satellite Release Oct.12 (No. 14) -Placed into a Lunar polar orbit at an altitude of 100Km Oct.19 (No.15). Then we will start the equipments check out etc. in early November, the constancy phase in mid-December. So the release of the high definition video will be 3 months after the launch, at the earliest. We appreciate your continuous interest to the KAGUYA mission.

Best regards,

Kyoko FUKUDA

Public Affairs Department, JAXA

Thank you Kyoko Fukuda! I suppose we could consider the lunar video (which should include an earth-rise above the moon’s horizon) a holiday gift from Japan.

If you would like to see some space “video” right now, how about checking out this flash movie based on images taken by the MRO (Mars).

Another highlight from yesterday was the launch of DAWN. It it the first U.S. spacecraft to use an ion engine. It is scheduled to investigate the asteroid belt and should arrive at it first target, Vesta,  in four years. Read about it here.

Global Warming News:

I was happy to hear some of the speeches from the AGW conference at the U.N. There was talk about developing new energy sources, something I have been harping about for a long time. At least for the first day of talks calmer heads prevailed and serious policy was discussed. Changes in policy for speculative problems that might occur a few decades from now cannot occur in a vacuum. Policy changes affect people. During the last century we saw the greatest expansion of prosperity the world has ever seen. We should be careful to not kill the golden goose. Focusing on new energy sources and promoting clean energy through tax relief is a very sensible move. Predictably, Al Gore gave a speech declaring a “planetary emergency” and lambasted governments for not moving fast enough. I don’t think over-exaggeration and hysteria serves a useful purpose in this discussion. Mass hysteria only leads to bad policy like the Kyoto Accord. Most everyone who studied the Accord in depth realized that it wouldn’t help reduce any theorized future warming of the planet. It was structured to be a punishment for advanced industrial countries like the U.S. while allowing other big polluters (China and India) to continue their ways unabated. It also gave wide ranging control of energy and markets to U.N. bureaucrats. The world is probably better off that it failed, thus allowing something better to emerge.

Even without international action, most measures of pollution are on the decline and fossil fuel usage is about to decline, all the while alternative energy growth is surging. Did you see the price of oil today – around 83 dollars a barrel. Oil supply is getting tight and will probably decline in coming years, this makes solar and wind much more competitive. Here is an article about huge new solar plants going up in California and other parts of the world. This technology was first demonstrated in California back in the 1980s and 90s. Sunlight is reflected to a central tower that contains a liquid. It heats up and generates steam which in turn runs a electric turbine. I am unsure why the original plants were shut down, but now California is getting new ones.

Have a great weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Uncategorized

There were a few thunderstorms across central Wisconsin on Thursday, but even more interesting weather was taking place across far southeast Wisconsin.  A severe  thunderstorm in Racine County produced up to half-inch and hail,  knocked a few trees down and damaged a roof with no injuries were reported.  However, some residents claim that they saw a tornado.  The National Weather Service in Milwaukee sent a damage survey team to find out if a tornado actually touchdowned and there will hopefully be an update on their findings by Friday. 

How about the tropics?  We haven’t talked about them in awhile and now is as good a time as ever.  The peak of the hurricane season was around September 10th, but even though it’s almost October, the oceans are still warm and suitable for tropical development.  Right now, there are two active storms – Hurricane Lorenzo and Tropical Storm Karen.  Hurricane Lorenzo is approaching Mexico and to read more about it, click here.  Tropical Storm Karen is pretty far east of the windward islands, if you want to read about this storm, click here.  You may remember a few posts back when Brian mentioned sub-tropical storms and how it is awkward that they are being named.  Well, I was curious too so I contacted the National Hurricane Center to find out why these sub-tropical cyclones are being named.  First of all, to read the actual, scientific definition of a sub-tropical cyclone, click on this link.  Now, their answer was that they "have better tools to diagnose the structure of the storm more accurately", which makes sense and is also very true.  It is amazing how far technology in meteorology has come.  For why they are naming these storms – it has to do with making these storms more visible to the public.  Because they have winds greater than 39 mph, these sub-tropical storms can have much of the same impact as a tropical storm so when it comes to people preparing for these storms, naming becomes very important.  I have mixed feelings on this topic.  I’m curious to what you think so feel free to leave some comments.

I also said tonight that I would update you on the fall colors in Wisconsin, so here it is.  The report from the Department of Tourism just came out today and it’s looking pretty colorful!  The best place to see some color is north, particularly, Price, Vilas, Iron, Forest and Florence counties.  To check out how the rest of the counties in the Badger State are changing, click on this link.  Have a great night!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

Before I get into today’s news, a little change for the weekend forecast. It now looks like most of the rain will hold off until late Sunday and therefore we should be able to enjoy mostly dry weather and warm temps on both Saturday and Sunday. A warm front will move through the state on Saturday so there is still a slight chance of thunderstorms toward evening. A cold front will approach from the west on Sunday but it should not reach us until late afternoon or evening. Be sure to head outside and enjoy the nice weather (Friday too!), because this is the last weekend of September. Even though I am expecting above normal temps to last through all of next week, each day brings us closer to winter and cold weather. You have to take advantage of beautiful Autumn days when they come along.

AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) News:

If you read some of the blogging I have done about AGW you might come away with the impression that I am a big skeptic on the whole. I wouldn’t call myself a “huge” skeptic, just a “small” skeptic, and mostly on the political implications of AGW. The science of why and how the earth could warm due to human influences is fairly sound in my view. I have stated in the past (based somewhat on subjective experience through my career) that recent warming is mostly due to natural cycles with less than 50% coming from human influence, although this could change in the future. One significant reason I hold this view is that the earth is currently in an interglacial period. Over the last 400,000 years the earth has gone through long cold/glacial periods followed by short warm periods. Check out this graph of temperature changes over the last 420,000 years (based on ice cores from Antarctica):

The blue line is the temperature change. The left hand side of the graph is where we are now. It is obvious we are in one of the short warm periods right now. We should expect the temps to be above normal. We should expect the sea levels to be rising. We should expect glaciers to be melting. Even if we accept AGW theorists predictions that the average global temperature will rise another 2 to 4 degrees in the next century, that puts us only as high as the temperature during the last interglacial period. The earth survived back then. I am unsure why the world would come to and end this time around (as is often portrayed in the media). Here is an even longer term graph going back 5 million years:

Temps were even warmer 3 to 5 million years ago.

ARGGGG! This is the point where the blogging software or my computer had a memory error and I lost the rest of the blog which contained a lot of great stuff! Check in tomorrow for space news and some great viewer pics.

Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Uncategorized

You may recall on Sunday that I talked about the autumnal equinox and how there is not exactly twelve hours of night and day.  Well, today there was just about 12 hours of day and night.  The sun rose today at 6:50 am and set this evening at 6:49 pm.  That is as close as we are going to get for the same number of hours for day and night.  Today also marked another special event – the full moon.  But, this is no ordinary full moon.  Each full moon of the year has its own name and since there is typically one full moon per month, there are twelve names.  On years where there are two moons in a month, there are 13 full moons and the 13th name is the blue moon.  Anyway, if you looked out to the east around sunset tonight, you may have noticed the big, bright moon.  Now, the moon is not literally bigger or brighter, it just appears that way because of its unique path across the sky this time of year.  If you would like to learn more about the harvest moon, click on this link.

Our weather pattern will be interesting as well.  As Justin talked about earlier today, it looks like there aren’t any real cold shots of air going into the first week of October.  Now, you may be wondering, why?  Well, the main reason is because of the position of the jetstream.  In the short term, we will see a trough of lower pressure moving through the Upper Midwest.  This is what will provide the showers on Thursday.  The overall pattern is the one we are focusing on.  This time of year the jetstream is moving south with its position across the U.S.-Canadian border with continuous storms affecting the Pacific Northwest.  This means that our storms are coming from the Pacific bringing the Pacific moisture with it.  Typically, Pacific air is milder which is why despite more clouds and showers, temperatures will average about 5  or so degrees warmer.  Pacific storm systems are also harder to forecast for our area.  These systems can speed up or slow down depending on other factors in the atmosphere, so timing these storms is sometimes difficult. 

Check back here tomorrow because I’ll let you where the fall color is close to or at their peak!  Each day that I look at Rib Mountain here in Wausau I notice more and more color to the trees!  This is such a beautiful time of the year, sometimes I like to think that the shortness of the Fall season makes us appreciate it all the more.  Before you go, take a look at some of these fall foliage photos and have a wonderful night! 

Meteorologist Megan Syner

A porcupine enjoying Autumn.  Photo taken by Don Salisbury.

Posted under Science

Clouds can be seen breaking up in today’s morning movie. Look for sunshine areawide this afternoon.

As far as the weather goes for the rest of the week, temps should stay at or above normal. Same goes for next week (the first week of October). There are not any signs of cold Fall air or frost until (maybe) the second week of October.  There will be a couple of "cool" days with igh temps in the low 60s but most days should be in the mid to upper 60s with a couple topping out in the low 70s. I just hope it doesn’t turn out like last year when we had mild weather during the first week of October and then record cold and traces of snow for the rest of the month. So the temps will be mild but what about rain chances. It looks like some light showers are possible tomorrow and some heavier rain possible Sunday and next Tuesday.

AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) News:

The top news item from today is a possible rapid snow melt in Greenland. You can read the news here and here. Here is the most dramatic quote from the articles and the quote that leaves me scratching my head:

"The amount of ice that has melted away from Greenland’s ice sheet this year could cover an area twice the size of the United States, with more melting occurring in 2007 than the average going back to 1988, a new study finds. " (from livescience.com)

"A new NASA-supported study reports that 2007 marked an overall rise in the melting trend over the entire Greenland ice sheet and, remarkably, melting in high-altitude areas was greater than ever at 150 percent more than average. In fact, the amount of snow that has melted this year over Greenland could cover the surface size of the U.S. more than twice." (from sciencedaily.com)

First notice there is some sloppy writing going on here. One article says a lot of snow has melted while the other says a lot of ice has melted. Whichever it is, it is a bold statement (not sure if it can be attributed directly to researcher Marco Tedesco) that is almost meaningless without some additional information. So the melted ice/snow could cover the U.S. twice. How thick would this layer be? One millimeter? An inch? A yard? What is it? An inch of ice contains a lot more water than an inch of snow? I don’t have access to the original paper from which the news articles are based so I can’t really derive any significance from this. The "melt index" has been derived from microwave satellite measurements. The lead researcher plans to make a trip to Greenland in 2008 take verify the measurements made by satellite. This will be a good thing because other scientists have found that the mass of ice over Greenland is getting thicker and not thinner. Take a look here for a review of a paper published back in 2003. Again, I can’t get access to the original paper, so we will have to rely a bit on the "reporting".

Space News:

I emailed JAXA yesterday to find out when their satellite will be reaching the moon but I have not received a reply as of yet. However, an article here indicates that Kaguya will not reach the moon until early October. Earlier reporting on the satellite had claimed it would only take 5 days. So the wait is on. The article is a review of future space plans of the Asian nations of Japan, China, and India. I am thrilled that more people are getting into space exploration. I only hope that it doesn’t turn into a "military" based space race, like that between the former USSR and the USA. If countries work together then we should be able to get space exploration by private citizens off and running a lot quicker. A thought echoed by an Indian scientist:

In the scramble to reach the moon, spacefarers risk duplication of effort, said Indian scientist Rao, who called for cooperation between the world’s space agencies to avoid that.
"Everyone doing the same work would be a waste of resources."

In other news DAWN will be lifting off tommorrow if the weather holds up.

Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Uncategorized