After some "spooktacular" conditions on Tuesday, Halloween turned out to be well, just spooky.  A cold front sweeped through the region today and brought some chilly air in from Canada just in time for Halloween and Trick-Or-Treating.   High temperatures were in the 50s around midnight on Wednesday, then they gradually fell into the 40s this evening and now into the 30s.  What can we expect through the week?  Well, I guess the headline says it all – tranquil weather.  High pressure will keep the region on the dry side through the remainder of the week and even part of this weekend.  A couple weak cold fronts will skate across the far northern parts of our viewing area, but only a few additional clouds are expected.  The atmosphere will be too dry to support any light shower or flurry activity.  But, if you are anxious to see some of those first snowflakes, you may not have to wait much longer.

A stronger cold front will arrive on Sunday night and could bring a chance for some rain showers Sunday night and then possibly some light snow showers or flurries, but mainly in the Northwoods.  Later in the week, however, enough cold, Canadian air may seep into the Upper Midwest.  We’re talking about high temperatures by the middle part of next week in the lower 40s and perhaps even the upper 30s.  There may even be a few light snow showers or flurries into the region, but it is too early to speculate.  Of course we’ll be monitoring the situation and keeping you up-to-date.  That is all for tonight, have a great night!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

We’ll start out today’s blog with a video greeting from 5th graders at Lac Du Flambeau school. They are saying "hello" to northcentral Wisconsin using an Ojibwa phrase.

Now a couple of Halloween-themed viewer photographs.

This picture of a frightening tree sent in by someone named Truman.

A Packer jack-o-lantern carved by Shawna and Jason Hill

The big new in the weather forecast is cooler temps arriving over the next few days. A cold front is moving through the area this morning and temps will be falling into the 40s this afternoon. High temps will stay in the mid to upper 40s from Thursday through Sunday then an even stronger front will cruise through northcentral Wisconsin next Monday and this will usher in the coldest air of the season so far. High temps by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week might only be in the 30s with a chance of accumulating lake effect snow in the northwoods.

Environmental News:

I just wanted to go back to a story or two that have occurred over the last couple weeks. This particular story is one that has garnered a lot of attention. It is how the world’s ocean’s are over fished and on the brink of disaster. It is certainly something to be concerned about and better fisheries management should be a priority, but is there really an impending disaster on the way? Here is a story from 10 YEARS AGO that claimed the same thing. Obviously during the last ten years there has not been a disastrous drop in the productivity of the world’s oceans. What happened? One thing that happened is that fish farming has increased to fill the need of fish consumption that cannot be handled by the oceans or is not profitable to harvest by traditional methods. Websites here, here, and here, indicate at least 30% of seafood consumed in the world is now farmed. Something else that has happened is that some countries have entered into regional pacts to create fish preserves. This has helped formerly depleted areas rebound and the trend toward more protected areas is increasing. Impending disaster? Seems unlikely.

Here is an article that caught my eye because of the title. "Unsustainable development puts humanity at risk". To which I can only say – duh! By definition, unsustainable development is a risk, in fact, isn’t it kind-of an oxymoron. I have been hearing that humanity has been living beyond its means ever since the 1980s and I am still waiting for something to happen. Instead, world food production has increased and we are using less land to produce that food all the while the population of the world has increased…..so….things have actually gotten better. We are finding ways to use less resources to produce more food (and more fish, as discussed earlier). One aspect of sustainability that is often discussed is fresh water. Some people are predicting catastrophic declines in fresh water. Some shortages have cropped up in parts of the world due to overuse and periodic drought (like the the southeastern U.S. this year). However just as was the case with fishing and other food production, people are already developing new ways to protect and produce fresh water. The same article that predicts water shortages in the U.S. goes on to mention how desalination plants are cropping up all over the world. The point is, people are not going to just sit around and die of thirst. They will work on solutions to prevent water shortages.

The only natural resource that we seem to be over using is fossil fuel. We are in no danger of running out of fossil fuels anytime soon, but that doesn’t mean these fuels will not become more expensive. Here is an article about declining world oil production. The article claims that world oil production peaked last year and that we can expect year-over year declines of 7%. From what I have read, that does not seem to unreasonable of a forecast. It means that $90 a barrel oil is just the beginning. These declines would certainly cause the price to rise above $100 maybe as early as next year and then eventually reach 200 a barrel within 5 or 10 years. If you hate paying $3 a gallon for gas, just imagine $5 or $10 per gallon. Like I have mentioned before, it is time to start preparing for high fuel costs now. Sell your gas-guzzler, get some solar panels for your house, move closer to work, get energy efficient lighting, etc… If you don’t take it into your own hands, eventually the government will force you to make changes and it might not be something that you agree with. The one thing that could help out in a big way is a big break-through in solar technology or nuclear fusion. It is possible that within 5 or 10 years a new and abundant source of electricity will be developed, thus easing the transition from an expensive fossil fuel economy to an electric economy.

This brings up an additional point, something I have mentioned a few times in the past. If oil production is already in decline and fossil fuels will become very expensive within the next decade, then the global warming theorists are WAAAAAAAAY off in their predictions of greenhouse warming by 2100. The global climate models (GCMs) use a "business as usual" fossil fuel scenario to predict catastrophe for the entire earth by 2100. The GCMs are using wildly unrealistic fossil fuel scenarios. I have contacted the IPCC in the past about this and I think it is about time I do it again. There is hardly a chance that by 2100, or even 2030, that human society will be using more fossil fuels than it is now. I’ll fire off a few emails to climate researchers and the IPCC and I’ll post their responses back here in the weather blog so stay tuned!

Meteorologist Justin Loew.

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As the end of October nears, It looks like the Wausau area and most of North-Central Wisconsin will go with out any measurable snow.  There were a few days last week which Vilas and Oneida County saw some flakes but that was about it for the month.  Maybe just maybe if we get enough cold air seasonable tomorrow afternoon after the cold front, we may see some flakes flying across the far north.  Anything measurable will be unlikely.  After another day of warmth(66 in Wausau-16 degrees above normal), more seasonable weather dominates the forecast.  Highs the rest of the week will only be in the 40′s.  For tricker treating tomorrow evening, I think any rainfall should be tapered off by then, yet winds will be blowing and temperatures will be falling.  So break out your warm costume.

Tropical Storm NOEL is still churning in the Caribbean with 40 m.p.h. winds, making it a minimal tropical storm and still poses no threat to the lower 48. 

Meteorologist

Brian Niznansky

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As mentioned yesterday, I will be gone for a school presentation today so not too much time for the blog post. The main thing I wanted to talk about is the Halloween forecast. The weather will be fabulous today but the nice conditions will come to an end tomorrow. A cold front moving through the area early Wednesday morning will create a 30% chance of light showers and also drop the temps a bit. By the time the trick-or-treaters are making their rounds late tomorrow afternoon the wind will be gusting out of the NW at about 15 to 25 mph and the temps will be falling into the low 40s. The good news is that the light showers should be done long before trick-or-treating time.

How about some nice viewer pics. These were all taken on the evening of October 22nd. It was a beautiful sunset. I wish I was awake to see it.

Taken by Debbie Syrjala of Antigo

Taken by Heatther Turner of Antigo

Taken by Thomas LaPointe of Weston

Posted under Uncategorized

  We now have a new tropical storm in the Caribbean named "Noel".  Noel has winds speeds of 45 miles per and currently sits east of Cuba, traveling in a NNW direction, right through the Bahamas over the next couple of days.  Noel is in very warm water but as it interacts with several islands and some strong upper level wind sheer from the west, Noel is not expected to strengthen much.  Certainly "Noel" is something to keep a close eye on, but right now, does not pose a threat to the lower 48.  For a complete discussion on Noel go here!

Today highs topped 60 degrees across the area, and with a strong southwesterly flow tomorrow, we should see 60 again.  But the warm weather will quickly come to an end on Halloween as a cold front pushes through.  Temperatures will fall off throughout the day on Halloween, with even a few snow showers possible across the north.  Have a great night.

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The weekend turned out better than expected with plenty of sunshine, now the beginning of the work week is turning out the same. With a nice south to southwest wind and plenty of sunshine, high temps today and tomorrow will be about 10 degrees above normal. Some spots might even hit the mid 60s on Tuesday. Be sure to enjoy while it lasts because it is that time of year when 60 degree temps become rare. The only bad news in the forecast is that Wednesday (Halloween) will be breezy and colder. A cold front will move through northcentral Wisconsin and produce a 30% chance of light showers or sprinkles. Kids going out trick-or-treating might want a couple extra layers underneath their costume with a northwest wind around 20 to 30 mph and temps falling down to around 40 in the afternoon.

Thursday is the beginning of November so I imagine some of you might be wondering if there is any snow on the horizon. Late Friday into Saturday another cold front will move through the area and produce a chance of sprinkles or flurries but no measurable snowfall is expected. Mid to late next week is when some colder air and a stronger storm system will move across the center of the nation and that will be our first chance of measurable snow. Now how about some nice viewer pictures:

A brightly colored sunset near Nekoosa. Picture taken by Lori (not sure of the last name).

Another nice sunset from the northwoods. Picture sent in by Dennis McGill of Sugar Camp.

A different type of Fall Color photograph on a rainy day. Picture by Jo Ellyn VanLieshout of Merrill.

Space News:

The good news is that RGI (Rocketplane Global Inc.) of Oklahoma revealed a new design for a space plane designed to take passengers on sub-orbital flight. Read about it here. The bad news is that the design is still "on paper". Unlike Scaled Composites (of Space Ship One fame), I don’t think Rocketplane has flown a single flight yet. So even though they have a nice design and plan to take tourists on sub-orbital flights by 2010 or 2011, they are waaaaaaaay behind in the game.

Here is a little article that caught my attention – DARPA Readies Demonstration of Radically New In-Space Propulsion. DARPA is the research arm of the military that is usually on the bleeding edge of science and they have sponsored cool competitions like the DARPA Grand Challenge and Urban Challenge so when they are involved in space propulsion you might expect big things. For those of you expecting a warp drive or anti-gravity propulsion, think again, the news is more mundane. Useful and innovative? Yes. Exciting and revolutionary? No. The propulsion system involves moving micro satellites to more preferred orbits around the earth. The micro satellites will carry a fluid with them. A solar collector will focus sunlight on the liquid and make it evaporate. The thrust of the evaporating liquid exiting a nozzle should be enough to move these tiny satellites into different orbits.

In other space news, a couple of astronomers from Canada claim dark matter does not exist. If you follow theories of the universe you know that most astronomers claim there is something called "dark matter" that helps to hold galaxies together. We can’t detect this matter with our current instruments but many scientists believe it is there because the mass of regular matter is supposedly not enough to hold galaxies together (by the force of gravity). I have always been a little uneasy about dark matter and dark energy because seeing is believing. If there is dark matter, why is there none in our neck of the woods? Why isn’t there observable dark matter in our solar system? Some recent discoveries make me wonder if there is more "regular" matter out there that remains to be counted. Just in the last couple of years astronomers have found many more stars in our galaxy than were formerly known and astronomers are just now starting to make new discoveries regarding "missing" black holes from the early universe. How much more is out there that we don’t know about?

I will be gone for a school talk tomorrow so the blog post will be short. I should be back in full force on Wednesday with some environmental news.

Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

First, I would like to start out by saying that our weather web page has been down since Friday.  We apologize for any convenience this may have caused, but we have let our corporate office who is in charge of the website know about the problem.  Hopefully, it will be up and running properly on Monday!

The tropics have been quiet for awhile, but we are not of the woods yet when it comes to possible tropical development.  Tropical Storm Noel formed within the past day or two and it is located just south of the Dominican Republic heading toward eastern Cuba and eventually the Bahamas.  Right now it looks like the storm will pass just east of Florida, but the Carolina coasts will have to keep a close eye because if it turns westward, it will affect this region.  Right now, the path is curving more away from the coastline, but that could change.  If you would like to track the storm, click right here on this link!

Now how about some current weather over in the Badger State.  Winds are already turning south-southwest and that is going to help bring in some much milder air for Monday and Tuesday of this week.  As meteorologists, we can tell when winds will turn south or southwest and also what temperatures are like in the vicinity of where our air is coming from, but since we are farther north the air modifies as one may expect.  But, it takes a special observation to determine how warm or cold temperatures will be.  This observation is known to meteorologists as warm or cold air advection.  Justin, Brian and myself constantly look for warm and cold air advection moving into central Wisconsin to forecast temperatures.  So, what is advection?  Advection is the transport of an either cold or warm air promoted by the wind.  The majority of the time, warm air advection is most prevalent behind a warm front or ahead of a cold front, while cold air advection is most common right behind a cold front.  In many, but certainly not all cases, the stronger the front, the more warm and/or cold air advection.  How do meteorologists find these areas of advection?  When we are putting a forecast together, we look at a map that has surface pressure and thickness lines on it and look for where these lines intersect each other.  The term "thickness" in this context is the height of a column of air between the surface and 500 mb (~20,000 feet).  The thickness can sometimes give us a good representation of temperature and is very helping when determining types of precipitation.  Okay, that’s all for the meteorology lesson.  There is going to be warm air advection helping our temperatures to rise Monday & Tuesday and once the cold front moves through on Wednesday, we’ll see a decent amount of cold air advecting into our area out of Canada. 

This seasonally chilling cold front will arrive just in time for Halloween, but the exact timing of it is still uncertain. On Saturday, it appeared that this creepy cold front was going to move through during the late-afternoon/evening hours, but now it may pass by lunchtime. A couple of showers are possible with this front as well. If the front does go through by lunchtime on Wednesday, we`ll have a morning high in the upper 40s, then those temps will fall into the lower 40s, maybe even upper 30s by Trick-Or-Treat time. With howling northwest winds, it may feel like temperatures are well into the 30s. Across the Northwoods, there may be some scary snow showers mixing in with the rain showers. Make sure you have enough room in your child`s costumes to put warm clothes underneath since it will be bone-chilling outside!

That is all for tonight, have a great week!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

It was a beautiful day today with lots of sunshine and temperatures fairly comfortable.  You still needed the jacket, but it’s Autumn so we should be used to that by now!  An upper-level disturbance quickly passed by this evening, even without anyone hardly noticing.  There were a couple of clouds with it across the Northwoods, but that was about it!  If you liked Saturday, you will also like Sunday because it’ll be very similar.  Temperatures will either be similar or a couple degrees cooler because we’ll start out cooler in the morning.  Lows tonight will drop into the middle to upper 20s, even lower 20s in some of the deeper valleys so keep the extra blanket with you if you haven’t turned on your heat quite yet!  The dry pattern will continue through Tuesday and with winds turning southerly, temperatures will reach the upper 50s to near 60 degrees!  The nice weather won’t last much longer than Tuesday as another seasonally strong cold front arrives on Wednesday.  This front will drop our temperatures back into the 40s just in time for Halloween.  Start planning ahead to put some warmer clothes underneath your child’s costume!  Since this front will be moving through around midday, temperatures will likely start out in the upper 40s in the morning and then fall into the lower 40s, maybe even upper 30s by Trick-Or-Treat time.  Along with the chilly temperatures, it will be quite windy with northwest winds gusting into the 20s, maybe even 30s.  The system is still a couple days away, but the possibility exists that if the low tracks close enough to our region that rain showers ahead of the front may changeover to a mix of rain or snow showers behind it by later Wednesday afternoon or evening.  The best chance for this scenario is across the Northwoods, but we’ll keep you posted as always!  Have a great night and enjoy the sunshine!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

Tonight I’d like to just touch on the general weather pattern we have seemed to work into.  Starting last week, we certainly have seen a cooler switch in weather.  We now have strung together several nights with below freezing temperatures.  However, we have yet to be dealt a major blow of arctic air.  And in the foreseeable future, I don’t quite see what you would call an arctic plunge.  If this holds true, most will escape October without a trace of snow.  The latest forecast model runs continue to show waves of colder air almost every couple of days or so through the early part of November.  Here is a link to the latest gfs forecast model…of the next 10 days showing 3 bursts of colder air.

As far as rain chances, any rain should be out of here by tomorrow afternoon, just in time for the high school playoff football games.  It will be chilly so don’t forget to dress warm!!!.

Meteorologist  Brian Niznansky

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First off today how about a little morning movie of the Hunter’s Moon. The Hunter’s Moon is the first full moon after the harvest moon. The sky cam is pointed to the southwest to capture the setting moon early this morning before the fog developed.

The second video clip is of some 3rd graders in Pittsville (that I visited yesterday) imploring everyone to wake-up and get this Friday started.

Space News:

Some super space news out from Bigelow Aerospace today (or maybe not). Bigelow is offering a 760 million dollar contract to any company that can develop a spacecraft capable of orbital flight. Bigelow has far exceeded there goals (thus far) of building space habitats. They already have 2 small inflatable units in space and they are operating nearly perfect. They are now readying the large habitat meant for tourists or businesses and plan to launch it in a couple years. The trouble is, there isn’t a reliable launch vehicle ready top make frequent multiple trips into earth orbit. Bigelow is making the space hotel but they are not making the spaceships that will take tourists into space. What about Scaled Composites and Virgin Galactic? So far, they are only working on "sub-orbital" flight. Their plans are to take passengers to the edge of space for a couple minutes of weightlessness. Many years "down-the-road" they plan for orbital flight. Bigelow needs something now. Back in 2004 Bigelow offered a prize of 50 million for the first private enterprise that could build a re-usable space capsule capable of taking 5 astronauts to their space habitats and back. I am not sure how that worked out, that is, I am unaware of any company that is close to that goal. Now the stakes are higher – 760 million. Is this a good sign or a bad sign. Was 50 million not enough to garner interest and investment, or are the technical hurdles to high? In any case those people that have been in space recently shared their experiences at a forum held in New Mexico and they sure make space travel sound exciting and worthwhile. The one thing I repeatedly here from former astronauts is that they see a "bigger picture" of life on earth. They come back with the feeling that we should put aside out differences and work together. Life is too short to spend it bickering and fighting wars.

AGW News:

Here is a little something I have commented on a few times in the past. It is the fact that long-term computer weather forecasts (including climate models) are inherently inaccurate. Using surface weather instruments and weather maps a good meteorologist can predict the weather with decent amount of accuracy for the next 2 to 3 days. With the help of computers, we can extend that forecast range to 7 or 8 days. With clues like El Nino, we can usually forecast general trends in precipitation and temperature 3 or 4 months into the future, but those are just general trends. We currently do not have the capability to forecast specific daily temperatures, precipitation, wind, cloud cover, etc.. with any reasonable accuracy beyond 7 or 8 days. The main reason is because the equations that describe the motion of the atmosphere are non-linear. This means that any small perturbations in the initial inputs or the early part of the computer forecast cycle (within the first few hours) can cause huge changes once the model extends a few days out (not to mention months or years in the case of climate models). So in this new study claiming that climate models are inaccurate has been a long time coming. A few people have been saying this for years but now it is out in the open and we will have to come to grips with it. Many scientists are afraid that people who criticize AGW theories will pounce and declare victory. I just want to make clear that the climate models are not useless. They are tools that can help us plan for the future, but we must realize there are limitations. The global climate models (GCMs) have gotten a little better in recent years. The first GCMs back in 1990 forecast in 2007 to be at least a couple degrees warmer than the temps we currently observe. That’s a big error. The GCM predictions from the mid 1990s through the early part of this century still have a significant warm bias, but it is only in the range of a half degree to 1 degree. So what does this mean for Al Gore and The Climate Project going around the country telling everyone the "debate is over", there is a "planetary emergency", and the ocean levels "will rise 20 feet by 2100". Maybe they should couch there language a little, at least introducing probabilities that some things will happen by 2100.

Weekend Weather:

Things are shaping up pretty good, albeit a little cooler. High temps should reach the 50s today but linger in the mid to upper 40s on Saturday and Sunday. The main problem on Saturday will be gusty northwest winds. If you are sitting in your tree stand or sitting in the stands at any local high school football play-off games you might need and extra layer or a blanket. On Sunday there will be less wind and more sunshine. No big storms on the horizon next week. The only problem will be a cold front coming through the area on Wednesday – Halloween. It will kick up the winds, produce a few light showers, and drop the temperatures in the afternoon and evening. So it looks like all the trick or treaters will have to dress warmly.

Meteorologist Justin Loew

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