The weather is quieting down and warming up for the next couple of days. The best part of the forecast is less wind. It should only be 5 to 10 mph all the way through the weekend. It is still cold today but tomorrow the mercury should rise back up to normal (mid 20s) and over the weekend we could be talking 30. Snowfall should be minimal, only a dusting or half inch in a few spots on Saturday. The next chance of significant accumulations will occur on Monday and Tuesday of next week. Keep that in mind if you have travel plans.

AGW News:

Scientist proclaims Arctic ice fields are receding like mad. The ice fields being referred to are on Canada’s Baffin Island. They have decreased in size by 50% in  the last 50 years. What goes un-noticed in this article is surprising revelations from the long term trend. The scientists carbon dated some of the dead plant material that was revealed after the ice melted away and it dated back  1,600 years. Which of course means that 1,600 years ago there was no ice on that spot on Baffin Island, which means it was warmer then, than it is today. Which most likely means the ice conditions across the arctic were the same as today or there was even less. Even more interesting is that the lead researcher George Miller claims that there was a general cooling trend over the last 10,000 years which abruptly came to an end around the beginning of the 20th century. Which means the average temperature was even warmer prior to 1,600 years ago. Which means there could have hardly been any ice anywhere in the arctic. Which brings a couple questions to mind. How did the polar bears survive? How did the coral reefs survive? How did the penguins, seals, and walruses survive? We are told that all of these animal species will go extinct because of the recent warming trend, yet it seems they survived even warmer weather for many thousands of years (prior to about 400 AD).

With all the talk about AGW, I am always keeping my eye on the newest alternative energy technology. Here is a new method for producing hydrogen using strained titania. I am not really a big fan of converting the automobile industry over to hydrogen fuel because it takes to much infrastructure development and it is not as efficient as using just plain electricity. However, this article did make a good point about how hydrogen could be useful. Using this new efficient technology, hydrogen could be produced during the day when the sun is out and then that hydrogen could be run through a fuel cell at night in order to keep electricity flowing to the grid. I don’t know how efficient this would be as compared to storing electricity in batteries or ultracapacitors but it is an interesting alternative.

In other news another company is producing cheap thin film solar panels. Global Solar Energy has achieved a record 10% efficiency in thin film solar panel. This is the second company making waves by producing flexible thin film solar panels. Nanosolar shipped their first products earlier in January.

On the energy efficient scene, I haven’t heard if Polybrite’s LED light bulbs are available as of yet, but more and more people are taking notice of LED’s potential. Here is a nice video about the coming LED revolution. One thing that might hinder the adoption of LEDs is price. They are already the most expensive form of lighting and if people start buying them more than compact fluorescent (CF) then the prices of CF bulbs might fall quite a bit, thus making them very attractive. As of now, most of the lighting manufacturers have invested heavily in CF bulbs and they aren’t going to just switch over to making LED bulbs and throw away billions worth of CF inventory. It is more likely that all the CFs will be sold at a deep discount.

And now for something completely different. If you have ever wanted cool space pictures for your computer wallpaper, you can find the best ones at the Hubble telescope wallpaper site. I use them all the time.

Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Uncategorized

It was a bitterly cold day across the area with wind chills this morning near 50 below in some locations.  When you combine near -20 degree temperatures with 30-40 mph winds, those are the kind of wind chills you can expect.  In those conditions, it only takes 10 minutes for exposed skin to get frostbite.  As for our weather this weekend, it will generally be quiet, but we are keeping our eyes on another strong storm for next Monday.

Over the next couple days, temperatures will be quite tricky to forecast over the area, mainly due to clouds, but the bitter cold will not stick around. Thursday will remain below average once again with highs reaching the lower teens. Another weaker storm system will pass south and east of the area on Thursday providing us with some clouds and maybe a couple flurries south and east of Stevens Point. Temperatures on Friday will reach the lower 20s and Friday night is when we can expect our next opportunity for some light snow as a wave of low pressure passes by. Even though this disturbance seems pretty weak, we still could have an inch or two of snow Friday night through Saturday morning.

Temperatures will continue to rise over the weekend with highs getting into the lower 20s on Saturday and middle to upper 20s on Saturday. Our average high this time of year is getting into the middle 20s so well be pretty close to seasonal this weekend. Besides the snow showers through the first half of Saturday, the rest of the weekend isnt shaping up to be too bad with clouds and a few peeks of sunshine both days. The quiet weather wont last for long though as another stronger storm may affect us for next Monday and Tuesday. The way things look right now several inches are not out of the question and with temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30, snow may even mix with sleet, but its still too far out to know all the details.

Have a great  night!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

We were expecting big changes in in temperature over the last 24 hours, but even I was caught by surprise. The cold air and wind that moved in overnight was the coldest we have experienced in a long time. The last time we had wind chill warnings with values dipping down to -50 was February 17th and 18th of 2006. Before that it was January 21st and 22nd of 2004, so it seems it happens about onnce every other year. The coldest wind chill readings this morning occurred in Antigo and Rhinelander, both reaching -49 below while the actual temperature dropped to -20. Here in Wausau the unofficial low so far is -18. This is very cold but not quite the coldest of the season. Ten days ago (the weekend the Packer’s lost the NFC championship game because they weren’t adequately prepared for the extreme cold) the low temperature dipped down to -19 twice (in Wausau). While it was -19 in Wausau, I had a couple of viewer reports of -35 to -40 during the same time frame. Could temps get that cold tonight? It is possible in areas where the skies remain clear, but I expect most areas to have a few clouds so lows might only reach the -10 to -20 range.

What is even more amazing is the 24 hour change in "apparent temperature". Yesterday morning around daybreak the temperature in Wausau was 38 degrees. This morning, 24 hours later, the wind chill dropped as low as -47, meaning it felt like the actual temperature was -47. That is an 85 degree change of apparent temperature. Amazing!

Thankfully the brutal cold will not last too long. High temps should reach the low teens tomorrow, the low to mid 20s on Friday, and climb up to around 30 on Saturday and Sunday. The next chance of accumulating snow (over and inch) will be early next week on Monday or Tuesday.

Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Uncategorized

First things first, tonight will not be a night for travel.  Snow will eventually come to an end across the area by midnight, but heading into tomorrow morning we are still expecting considerable blowing and drifting of snow, especially on country roads.  Snowfall totals are ranging anywhere from an inch or two far south to as much as 5/6 inches in spots north and east.  Besides the snow and very strong winds, I think the most alarming story with this storm system will be 24 hour change in temperature.  By the early morning hours tomorrow, we could have up to a 50 degree change in temperatures across the area, now that is remarkable.   For example, at 5 O’Clock this morning(Tuesday) we had a temperature of 38 Degrees.  At that time tomorrow morning(Wednesday), I am forecasting a temperature right around 15 below, feeling like 40 below with the winds…..CRAZY!!!  I know this is winter in Wisconsin but take the cold seriously tonight and tomorrow.  With wind chills this low, exposed skin can get  frost bite in TEN minutes.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

The day started out mild but there was still trouble on the roadways. A few hundredths of an inch of rain moved through northcentral Wisconsin last night. The air temperature was above freezing but the ground was still well below freezing  (due to the recent dramatic cold spell), and therefore the roads became very slippery. As the day wears on, more trouble will develop with light snow, high winds, and colder temps during the afternoon. Because of this wintry combination, various advisories and warnings have been issued. The National Weather Service normally has pretty good coordination when they issue warnings, but for this storm it is a bit of a headache. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for most of the area this afternoon and this evening while a WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for Taylor, Clark, Jackson, Juneau, Monroe, and Adams counties. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY is in effect for Taylor, Clark, Juneau, Monroe, and Adams counties for tonight and Wednesday morning. A WIND CHILL WARNING is in effect for Price, Iron, and Ashland counties for the same time period. The rest of the area…no wind chill advisories for tonight, although it will still be bitterly cold with wind chills down to 40 below. I suspect the rest of the area will see the winter weather advisory replaced with a wind chill advisory this evening as the snow comes to an end. OK, if you can’t quite follow it all, just remember that there will be wind and snow this afternoon through early evening. Accumulations in most of the area will be 1 to 3 inches, with some higher amounts possible east of Marathon county. The weather will remain bitter on Wednesday, then we will experience a  gradual warm-up as we head toward the weekend. High temps should be back up to 30 by Sunday.

AGW News:

This article about AGW and hurricanes almost made me whip out the big list of bad things that will happen because of AGW. Then I remembered we already have it on the list (from a prior study). This most recent study suggests that there will be fewer hurricanes in the future due to a warmer atmosphere and oceans. Now you might say that is a good thing, right? Not necessarily. Some AGW theorists say fewer hurricanes will cause more drought in the southeastern U.S. So I guess we are in trouble no matter which projections are correct.

Staying on the subject of AGW, here is a video with David Keith describing a method of cooling things off. He proposes to put sun reflecting particles high into the mesosphere around the poles. It would be a very cheap and effective geo-engineering project to combat AGW. The problem is that no one is supporting it. Why? Politicians think it will cause a lazy attitude within the general public. If AGW would happen to be as bad as some people forecast, then people would have a reason to be concerned and do something, but they might not do anything if they know we can just put some particles in the mesosphere and get temps back to normal in a couple of years time. Also, environmental groups are very resistant to progress and engineering in general so it is a no-go in that corner as well.

In a related story (here and here) geologists are proposing to name the current geological age the "anthropocene age", denoting the heavy influence humans have on the biosphere and lithosphere. I think it makes sense, and I am fine with humans controlling the planet. There is a general feeling that "natural" is better and that humans are a bad influence on the planet. I won’t dispute that there have been problems at times with humans polluting certain areas of the planet, but overall, the more we control the planet, the better things are. Since most of us have never lived at the mercy of mother nature we take for granted and don’t realize how good we have it now. There was a time when people were at the mercy of droughts, tornadoes, hurricanes, you name it. Now we manage those risks. If David Keith gets his way, we will even control the climate eventually. I think geo-engineering is our destiny. As our technological "might" increases to the point that we control the planet we just have to make sure we do it safely.

Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

You have probably heard the saying "If you don’t like the weather in Wisconsin, just wait five minutes and it will change". This is of course an exaggeration, however, tomorrow it will be close to coming true as an arctic cold front moves through the area. We might have temperature drops of 10 degrees per hour for a couple of hours around midday. Today the temperature is going in the opposite direction. It will feel very spring-like with high temps near 40. The mild temps will last into tomorrow morning. We will start out Tuesday with temps in the low 30s, then around midday the arctic cold front will move from west to eat across the viewing area and the temperature could be down near zero shortly after sunset. Along with the dramatic drop in temperature will come high winds and snow. How much snow? Right now it looks like 1 to 3 inches however, I wouldn’t be surprised if some spots end up with 4 inches. Combine that with a 30 mph wind out of the Northwest and traveling will be treacherous. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for Tuesday for Vilas, Oneida, Forest, Florence, Langlade, Lincoln, Marathon, Shawano, Menominee, Portage, Wood, Waupaca, and Waushara counties. SNOW and BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY has been issued for Tuesday for Price, Iron, and Ashland counties. By Wednesday the arctic air will be firmly entrenched and high temps will struggle to rise above zero. Thursday will be another cool day and then we should be back up to normal – in the 20s – from Friday through Sunday.

Space News:

I didn’t have enough time to get to this news last week and I suppose some of you saw this on the news. Virgin Galactic unveiled a model of Space Ship Two, the space ship being built by Scaled Composites that will take passengers to the edge of space to experience weightlessness. Here are a couple articles that covered the details of the event (here and here). Here is a video report of the event. One of the cornerstones of this near future space travel is a launch facility. Many people have been hoping for Spaceport America in New Mexico to be the new hub of private space travel. You would think people in New Mexico would support such an initiative in their state. Surprisingly, according to this article, a recent tax initiative to support the spaceport passed by the slimmest of margins. A more sinister roadblock to the successful completion of Spaceport America is the "environmental impact assessment". Investors do not see any roadblocks at this point. The spaceport is being built in barren sparsely populated ranch land. However, I think they misjudge the fervent anti-progress attitude present in most extreme environmental groups. All it takes is one slightly threatened fly or frog in the neighborhood and the whole thing will be shut down…forever.

Staying on the space theme, take a look at this inspiring TED video featuring Bill Stone and his plans to mine the moon. The first part of the presentation is about autonomous robotic exploration vehicles. Toward the end, he talks about taking a trip to the moon in order to mine the fuel that will eventually propel man into the further reaches of space. It involves leaving the earth with only enough fuel for a one way trip. Which means, in order to return they will have to rely on being able to create fuel on the moon, or hope for a rescue mission from earth if they run into trouble.

Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

I thought it would be appropiate to discuss our evolving weather expected for Monday and Tuesday.  Both days will present it’s own travel trouble from freezing precipitation Monday to snow on Tuesday.  Our temperatures will also take a dramatic turn in both directions!  Monday will feature highs in the upper 30s, then by Tuesday afternoon, we’ll be down into the teens.  That is quite the change in such a short time frame!  Those are the two aspects of the forecast that we are most confident with – everything in-between is a bit more complicated, especially when it comes to timing, type and intensity of the precipitation.  Here is what we are thinking right now:

Warm air will continue to surge into the area from the south with temperatures on Monday getting up into the upper 30s.  The storm system that we have been talking about will be a two-part system with the first part arriving on Monday in the form of a warm front associated with a wave of low pressure.  We will see drizzle, freezing drizzle and rain showers.  So, how much can we expect?  That is where the complications begin because this first part doesn’t look like it will pick up a whole lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture as it leaves the eastern Rockies.  It will pick up some, but precipitation should stay generally light, perhaps moderate at times.  Lighter winds tonight will promote areas of fog to development as dew points rise closer to the air temperature.  As the warm front approaches the Badger State Monday morning, we can expect some freezing drizzle since temperatures will start out in the 20s.  If by chance this system brings more moisture with it when it nears the Badger State, then there may be freezing rain developing, but we aren’t anticipating that to occur at this point in time.  The warm front will pass through by midday Monday and any freezing drizzle or light freezing rain will changeover to plain rain showers as temps get into the middle to upper 30s, but the rain showers should stay generally light.  We aren’t expecting a downpour of rain Monday afternoon.  In the Northwoods, temperatures  will be in the middle 30s so I wouldn’t be surprised if drizzle/rain showers mix with some sleet.   It’ll also turn quite windy with possible gusts up to 30mph.  Low clouds and fog are also possible, especially ahead of the warm front, but once winds pick up, fog should become more patchy.  Later Monday evening, temperatures will fall back close to freezing, maybe slightly below so rain showers will taper back to freezing drizzle or light freezing rain.  This is just part one!

Part-two will be knocking on our door Monday night and will be in the form of both another wave of low pressure and an arctic cold front.  After midnight Tuesday, any freezing drizzle, drizzle or light freezing rain will start to mix with sleet and/or snow.  Our high temperatures for the day will occur shortly after midnight before  the cold frontal passage.  With nearly every large-scale weather system, there is an area of drier air, sometimes it right behind the system, other times it is right ahead.  Given the close proximity of the two different parts, I would think that the drier air will be behind the first part and ahead of the second part.  Some of our computer models are hinting at this as well.  Since Monday night will be the transition period from part one to part two and given that we tend to have less moisture present at night, I’m anticipating the drier air to be present at this time.  There still will be a mix of freezing drizzle, drizzle and snow showers around, but precipitation will likely stay on the lighter side at this point.  The main cold front will push through sometime Tuesday morning, but some models are anticipating a second wave of low pressure to ride along the cold front.  This wave would have more moisture with it and could give us a good shot at a couple inches of snow starting around midday Tuesday (perhaps 1-3"?).  It’ll also be very windy and turning much colder with northwest winds behind the front blowing between 20-30 mph.  By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will be in the lower to middle teens!    Factor in the winds to those air temperatures and we are talking about wind chills at or below -10 degrees!  Travel conditions both Monday and Tuesday will be quite treacherous at times so try to plan ahead for the active weather!  The middle of the week will be cold again with highs near 10 degrees on Wednesday and in the teens on Thursday, but we will quickly rebound to near seasonal levels by the end of the week!

Well, that is all for tonight, travel safe and have a wonderful evening!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

An Air Quality Watch for Particle Pollution is in effect for the entire state for all of Sunday.  This watch was issued by the Wisconsin DNR (Department of Natural Resources) because it has to do with the quality of the air rather than the actual weather, but there are meteorological reasons for why poorer air quality is expected.  The main reason has to do with something called an "inversion".   Before I go into the definition of an inversion, I’ll explain a typical temperature profile of the atmosphere.  In general, temperature decreases with height so it is warmer at the surface and then the temperature gets cooler as you go higher into the atmosphere.  This trend continues all the way up to the tropopause which is the small layer that separates the troposphere from the stratosphere.  So, temperature decreases with height, the most important fact to know!   Now back to inversions!  A temperature inversion occurs when temperatures ‘increases’ with height.  Basically, an inversion occurs when a layer of warmer air forms between two layers of cooler air and this prevents the lower layer of cool air from mixing with the air above it so it just sits there.  When you have a layer of non-moving or stagnant air at the surface, this can trap pollutants from sources such as power plants, factories, vehicle exhaust and outdoor fires.  To see the different air quality levels, see the picture below! 

The Air Quality Index is forecasted to reach the orange level, which is considered unhealthy for people in sensitive groups, such as those with heart/lung problems, asthma as well as the elderly and young children.  People in these groups should limit strenuous activities, especially outdoors during the watch period.  Fine particle pollution deposits itself deep into the lungs and cannot easily be exhaled.  If you aren’t in this group and even if you are, there are ways that you can reduce further contributions to the air quality:

- When driving, don’t leave vehicles idling

- Postpone activities that use small gasoline and diesel engines

- Conserve electricity

If you want more information, click on this link or on this link!  For current information on air quality readings, call the Daily Air hotline at 1-866-DAILYAIR or 1-866-324-5924

Let’s switch gears now and talk about the forecast!  Light snow fell across the area last night into early Saturday morning with a general 1 – 3 inches from Wausau and south.  You may have noticed that the snow could be easily brushed off the car and sidewalk due to the cold temperatures causing the flakes to be big, but have lower water content.  The snow formed along a warm front and behind that warm front, temperatures reached seasonal levels across the area for the first time in 8 days!  And if you like the mild, winter weather you will enjoy Sunday and Monday because temperatures will reach close to freezing on Sunday and into the upper 30s on Monday!  It’ll be a good day to get the car washed and check out the Badger State Games!  There will be some patchy fog tonight and that may carry on into Sunday, but I am expecting winds to pick up a bit and that should limit the fog development.  Monday, things may get very interesting weather-wise.

The storm system that we will be dealing with Monday Tuesday is a two-part system one bringing mixed precipitation, the other bringing cold air and some snow. The first part of this system a wave of low pressure along with a warm front will arrive out of the eastern Rockies. As this part travels through the central Plains, it will pick up a good bit of Gulf moisture and bring it in the Great Lakes. Ahead of the warm front which will be near the Badger State Monday morning, we can expect some drizzle and freezing drizzle since temperatures will be in the upper 20s to near 30 to start out the day. Once the warm front pushes through by midday Monday and a trough of low pressure passes over the region, the freezing drizzle will changeover to plain rain with temperatures rising into the upper 30s. In the Northwoods, temperatures will be in the middle 30s so rain will likely mix with sleet or snow. The heaviest precipitation is expected Monday afternoon and evening. Another note to add is that it will be quite windy with possible gusts up to 30 mph. As mentioned earlier, low clouds and fog are also possible, but with the higher winds, it will likely be limited. Just as part one moves out, part two will be knocking on our door and that will be in the form of an arctic cold front. There will be a break from the precipitation and that will likely be Monday night. The cold front will push through early on Tuesday with our highs for the day shortly after midnight, which will be in the lower 20s. Blustery, cold air will continue to push in the remainder of the day with light snow possible as well, but it is too early to tell how much. The rest of the week will feature temperatures in the teens with a few off and on snow showers.

That is all for tonight, have a great night!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

The issue of global warming comes up more than ever these days, which it should.  And I know it is probably the easiest stance to take, but I guess I sit almost right in between the extremes.   I don’t have any crazy numbers or facts to share with you, but I do have a couple of points of my own.  Like most people, I agree, the earth is warming.  I think you would have to be pretty ignorant by now to believe it is not. 

Now is this a natural warming or are humans playing a big part?.  I believe it is both.  The earth’s atmosphere has been changing well before humans existed.  Currently the earth is in a natural warming cycle. On top of that I do believe human activity has speed up the process and if we don’t continue to change, we will continue to speed things up.  When this will cause major issues down the road?  I don’t know, but I do know that every natural disaster is not caused by global warming.  Now-a-days it seems we cannot have a forest fire or Hurricane with out it being partially or completely blamed on global warming.  What ever happened to the forest fire being caused by some idiot who threw his cigarette in some brush.  I know what your thinking…the west is extremely dry right now, and your right!!  Result of global Warming????

Yes there have been more hurricanes over the past 5 years, and yes the oceans are slightly warmer.  Is this a result of global warming or is this just a warm wave in overall cycle that fluctuates?  The answer to this question I am once again uncertain.  But when comparing dollar signs from hurricane destruction in the past, I think you also have to realize that our coast are more populated than ever before.  Same thing for fires, people are building houses in fire prone areas.  Locations where fires roar every summer, but people want to build anyway.

In order to answer all these questions, we also need to figure out if  our earth’s recent warming is a long term unstopable thing, or is this just a little wiggle on a larger scale….a question hard to prove.

So I am throwing up my white flag and until I am more confident in my numbers, I declare neutral.  One thing is for certain, overall we are not making matters any better.  So I strongly support any clean air alternatives.  Keep the skies blue!!… Oh and one other thing.  Next time you read up on an article, keep in mind that when someone is proving his or her point on global warming, they will  refer to a time scale("Over the past 1000 years, million years, 100 years, or ten years").  This person will use whatever time scale and other variables that will make a best case.

Meteorologist

Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

After today it looks like we will see an improvement in our temperatures, but our weather will become more active.  South-southwest winds will persist on Friday and our temperatures will begin to rise.  High temperatures will reach the middle to upper teens.  A few places may even push the 20 degree mark!  On the downside though, clouds will increase and some light snow may develop towards sunset Friday as a warm front approaches the region.  Light snow and snow showers will continue Friday night through Saturday morning with one to two inches of accumulation possible.  In the southern portions of the viewing area, there may be close to 3 inches of snow.  Behind the warm front on Saturday, it will be noticeably milder with high temperatures reaching the lower 20s, but sky conditions will remain mostly cloudy.

By Sunday, the warm-up will continue and we should have a little more sunshine.  Winds will increase as well which should limit the development of low clouds and fog from melting snow.  Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 30s so it might be a good day to get outside, maybe even get the car washed and just try to enjoy the break from the extreme cold that we have been experiencing.  A potent storm system will arrive on Monday and will give us a mixed bag of precipitation.  Monday may be the peak of the mild temperatures with high temperatures getting into the middle to upper 30s, but messy weather is expected.  Light snow showers and drizzle are possible Sunday night with a passing warm front and that will likely change to light rain on Monday as moisture and warm air surge ahead of a strong cold front.  By Monday evening, the cold front will be close enough that light rain will mix with snow and sleet creating very messy conditions.  Once the cold front passes Monday night, it will be blustery and we may see a few snow showers or flurries, but the heaviest precipitation will have ended.  Fog is a good possibility as well for Monday as well due to melting snow, but winds will be strong out of the south-southwest so that may counteract the developing.

Just as we are expecting a dramatic warm-up, the strong cold front will bring a dramatic cool down.  Highs on Tuesday will start out in the lower 20s and then drop into the teens, but gusty northwest winds will make it feel much colder.  We will be on the fringe of another blast of cold air later in the week, but we shouldn’t be too far below our average temperatures this time of year.  Have a great night!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science