I thought it would be appropiate to discuss our evolving weather expected for Monday and Tuesday.  Both days will present it’s own travel trouble from freezing precipitation Monday to snow on Tuesday.  Our temperatures will also take a dramatic turn in both directions!  Monday will feature highs in the upper 30s, then by Tuesday afternoon, we’ll be down into the teens.  That is quite the change in such a short time frame!  Those are the two aspects of the forecast that we are most confident with – everything in-between is a bit more complicated, especially when it comes to timing, type and intensity of the precipitation.  Here is what we are thinking right now:

Warm air will continue to surge into the area from the south with temperatures on Monday getting up into the upper 30s.  The storm system that we have been talking about will be a two-part system with the first part arriving on Monday in the form of a warm front associated with a wave of low pressure.  We will see drizzle, freezing drizzle and rain showers.  So, how much can we expect?  That is where the complications begin because this first part doesn’t look like it will pick up a whole lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture as it leaves the eastern Rockies.  It will pick up some, but precipitation should stay generally light, perhaps moderate at times.  Lighter winds tonight will promote areas of fog to development as dew points rise closer to the air temperature.  As the warm front approaches the Badger State Monday morning, we can expect some freezing drizzle since temperatures will start out in the 20s.  If by chance this system brings more moisture with it when it nears the Badger State, then there may be freezing rain developing, but we aren’t anticipating that to occur at this point in time.  The warm front will pass through by midday Monday and any freezing drizzle or light freezing rain will changeover to plain rain showers as temps get into the middle to upper 30s, but the rain showers should stay generally light.  We aren’t expecting a downpour of rain Monday afternoon.  In the Northwoods, temperatures  will be in the middle 30s so I wouldn’t be surprised if drizzle/rain showers mix with some sleet.   It’ll also turn quite windy with possible gusts up to 30mph.  Low clouds and fog are also possible, especially ahead of the warm front, but once winds pick up, fog should become more patchy.  Later Monday evening, temperatures will fall back close to freezing, maybe slightly below so rain showers will taper back to freezing drizzle or light freezing rain.  This is just part one!

Part-two will be knocking on our door Monday night and will be in the form of both another wave of low pressure and an arctic cold front.  After midnight Tuesday, any freezing drizzle, drizzle or light freezing rain will start to mix with sleet and/or snow.  Our high temperatures for the day will occur shortly after midnight before  the cold frontal passage.  With nearly every large-scale weather system, there is an area of drier air, sometimes it right behind the system, other times it is right ahead.  Given the close proximity of the two different parts, I would think that the drier air will be behind the first part and ahead of the second part.  Some of our computer models are hinting at this as well.  Since Monday night will be the transition period from part one to part two and given that we tend to have less moisture present at night, I’m anticipating the drier air to be present at this time.  There still will be a mix of freezing drizzle, drizzle and snow showers around, but precipitation will likely stay on the lighter side at this point.  The main cold front will push through sometime Tuesday morning, but some models are anticipating a second wave of low pressure to ride along the cold front.  This wave would have more moisture with it and could give us a good shot at a couple inches of snow starting around midday Tuesday (perhaps 1-3"?).  It’ll also be very windy and turning much colder with northwest winds behind the front blowing between 20-30 mph.  By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will be in the lower to middle teens!    Factor in the winds to those air temperatures and we are talking about wind chills at or below -10 degrees!  Travel conditions both Monday and Tuesday will be quite treacherous at times so try to plan ahead for the active weather!  The middle of the week will be cold again with highs near 10 degrees on Wednesday and in the teens on Thursday, but we will quickly rebound to near seasonal levels by the end of the week!

Well, that is all for tonight, travel safe and have a wonderful evening!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science