I hope everyone had themselves a wonderful weekend and were able to dodge the scattered storm activity.  Well, it looks like we are finally breaking into some summer-like weather.  It will be interesting to see the official numbers tomorrow, but with late month warmth, temperatures should be fairly close to average for the month of June.  But what will the rest of the summer bring…warm, cool, wet or dry?  According to the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the summer should fair….well…average.  With some of the extremes this country has seen recently, I think will take it:)

Here are the maps for the 3 month overall predictions for July, August, and September..

The first map is in regards to temperatures and second is for precipitation.  We have equal chances all around for a wet, dry, warm, and cool summer.  The most alarming prediction yet again this summer… another extremely hot and dry summer in the west.  Forest fires will again be a huge concern.

Click here.. for a more in-depth local look at this summer’s climate prediction…

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

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We had some thunderstorms rumbling across the area this afternoon and I have to admit even I was caught off guard by how early storms started developing!  I heard thunder rumbling in the distance, I grabbed everything ran out the door into the pouring rain and got to see some pea-sized (.25") to .50" hail!!!  Even though it wasn’t very big, as a meteorologist I see all the "good" storms on radar so to be able to see hail is quite remarkable and I was very excited.  Some places picked up hail up to 3/4" in diameter and in Monroe county as well as in Outagamie/Winnebego counties hail over 1" in diameter was reported!  Even though it wasn’t warm today, the little sunshine that we had provided enough energy for storms to grow and with so much cold air aloft large hail and gusty winds were the main threats.  We also had an upper-level low spinning across central Wisconsin which provided the lift needed to sustain the storms.  If this low had passed farther to the north, I think there would have been more severe weather but since it was father south, a good bit of the convection stayed south and east of the area.

Sunday will be similar to Saturday in terms of temperatures but only a few showers are possible.  Clouds will continue to hang around and that will keep high temperatures well below average with readings around 70 degrees and breezy northwest winds once again.  Clouds will decrease Sunday evening and night which will help temperatures to quickly cool to around 50 degrees for our low.  High pressure will keep us dry on Monday and Tuesday and temperatures will warm up to near 80 degrees.  Our next storm system will bring an opportunity for showers and storms Tuesday night and Wednesday.  A cold front will slip through the region Wednesday night with slightly below average temperatures and dry conditions expected for the end of the week.

That is all for tonight, have a great night!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

Intertwined with the AGW issue is alternative energy and energy saving products. One such item that I profiled late last year was the LED light bulb. One particular company that had created a buzz with their projection of selling LED bulbs during the 1st quarter of 2008 was Polybrite. I even interviewed the president of Polybrite and put the interview in the blog post titled "A true revolution in lighting". A reader (rbtl) was browsing through the old blog posts yesterday and commented on Polybrite. Thanks so much for bringing this up again rbtl! Rbtl provided a link to a blog about the parent company of Polybrite which is Goeken Group Corporation. A recent post is critical of the parent corporation for promising LED technology and not delivering. Since I was told that the LED bulbs would be available this year (before April) and I did not see anything delivered, I tried to contact the company a couple times over the last two months. So far I have not gotten a reply, which has me worried. LED lightning has huge potential. It could reduce energy demands in the U.S. by a significant margin. What has happened? Maybe the slow economy affected their decision. Single LED bulbs from Polybrite could cost $10 to 15. Even though LED bulbs could save people money in the long run, they might not be able to afford them right now. Another possibility is that the major light bulb manufacturers have sunk a ton of money into compact fluorescent (CF) bulbs and even though CF bulbs are inferior in nearly every measure, the companies still want to get a return on their investment. So maybe they are holding out on the delivery of LED bulbs. If I get a response from Polybrite I will be sure to share it with you. Sylvania was one of the companies that was supposed to distribute LED bulbs this year, but I haven’t seen any standard LED bulbs on their website. I In the meantime here is another website that caught the LED story late last year.

In any case, the product is not a hoax. In my own house, I am still using  the sample lights I received . They work great. I hope whatever problems or barriers that exist will be resolved and LEDs will be available to the general public soon. LED bulbs are part of the solution for a cleaner more efficient future.

Some people claim we had better start being more efficient today and stop using fossil fuels or we are all doomed. James Hansen made news earlier this week by saying "if we don’t stop using fossil fuels we are all toast". Now there is a new way to put it. Here is another write-up about Hansen’s latest. I suppose he has to come up with some new terminology because he has been saying we are doomed since 1988. I have heard the "if we don’t stop using fossil fuels NOW…we are all doomed" line for more than 15 years. In the intervening time period, floods have occurred, tornadoes have occurred, hurricanes have ravaged coastlines, droughts have caused food shortages, but we certainly have not met our doom. Not even close. After monitoring the issue for so long I have become a bit jaded and little skeptical every time a new headline crosses the wire proclaiming environmental Armageddon. It just keeps on year after year after year. A lot of these predictions go all the way back to the 1960s. Even though Paul Ehrlich’s book "The Population Bomb" turned out to be complete and utter fiction – a big scare story – people still listen to and believe him when he speaks out on environmental issues. I suppose if you are in the business of "doom and gloom" then you just keep on saying it year after year hoping to be correct at some point, or perhaps there will be some significant event at which point you can at least partially say "I told you so".

On the opposite end of things, I suppose people could define me as a skeptic, but that is not my gig. I try to take a more measured tone – adapting as the conditions change. If you read the blog often, you know that I advocate all kinds of alternative energy solutions (light LED lighting) and give out all kinds of tips on how to conserve gas and save money. I ride my bike every chance I get! My opinion is that we should invest in the new technology that will reduce our need for fossil fuels but not force people into paying carbon taxes. Technology and progress is what has kept us out of the "Armageddon scenarios". Every time someone like Malthus, Ehrlich, or Hansen makes a prediction of disaster, they don’t take into account the most important resource of all, and that is human ingenuity.

If you are a frequent reader of the blog, you know I keep track of all the predictions of disaster in the "AGW list". It is the big list of bad things that have occurred or will occur because of AGW (anthropogenic global warming). There are new things that come out every day but I am finding it harder to add to the list because there is so much on it already. Almost every bad thing that could possibly happen to the planet has already been prophesied, so now it is getting to be repetitive. This article claims there will be more wars due to AGW. This is at least the tenth time we have encountered this prediction in the last 8 months, so it is already on the list. It is interesting to note that levels of violence and war have been in a long term decline and it continues today – even with the wars in Iraq in Afghanistan. Check out this TED video if you don’t believe me.

This article claims that long distance migratory song bird populations have declined because of AGW. We already have a couple of bird items on the list so this one will only be an update.

Here is another repeat, a prediction that disease will become rampant among the animal kingdom. It does use some new terminology with regards to honey bees -  "colony collapse disorder" so I think we can add it. The article also makes a pretty dramatic statement:

Global warming is predicted to lead to extreme swings in weather events such as droughts and floods. These could theoretically lead normally tolerable diseases to converge and trigger multiple outbreaks of epidemics with catastrophic mortality.

So here is the updated AGW list:

(More bee colony collapse disorder and other multiple infectious disease outbreaks, Caribou populations will decline, 1 in 8 bird species could go extinct – including long distance migratory song birds, eucalyptus leaves will become less nutritious and Koala bears will die, the 2008 tropical storm disaster in Myanmar, Tropical bugs will not reproduce, toxic chemicals will pour out of glaciers, Narwhals will go extinct, more deadly algae blooms, more poverty, a massive increase in volcanic activity, new disease outbreaks from previously frozen corpses, irreversibly alter water circulation in Lake Tahoe, dramatically decreased rice production, fewer flowers in the Rocky Mountains, the Butterfly fish will starve, transportation system will be ruined, air pollution related deaths will increase, tropical fish could go deaf, more “ocean deserts”, more tundra wildfires, collapsing oceanic food webs, sharks devastating Antarctic sea life, the drying up of Lake Mead by 2021, plant-devouring insect invasions, poor food quality, increased human mortality, more solastalgia/mental illness, more wars, the past 1993 conflict in Somalia, more intense heat waves, more heat deaths, polar bears starving, Isle Royale Moose dying, Walruses dying, Penguins starving (including King penguins), Australian bats dying, more hurricanes, less hurricanes, more intense and bigger hurricanes, more stormy weather, rising oceans, more acidic oceans, California wildfires, more droughts, more floods, future disastrous declines in food production, coral reefs (hard and soft) dying, enormous extinctions of plant and animal species, massive loss of fish in the Bering Sea, the earth literally being torn apart, Amazon deforestation, a bigger ozone hole, a smaller ozone hole, less fresh water, more obesity, more hunger, more asthma, more allergies, more infectious disease, …more to come)

That is is for today. I will be on vacation until next Tuesday. Be sure to tune into Megan and Brian’s forecast over the next couple of days to keep up to date on the severe weather chances. It looks like Friday will be the day with the highest threat.

Meteorologist Justin Loew

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Last night we talked about the heat…tonight I suppose we could discuss a bit on our storm chances.  With the warmth and humidity, our atmosphere is now primed for thunderstorms.  As far as severe weather.. I think the best chances will be tomorrow afternoon and especially on Friday.  Tomorrow a warm front will push through providing enough lift to support a few thunderstorms.  Although the storms tomorrow should be widely scattered, some of the storms could produce some gusty winds, hail, and of course lightning.  The Storm Prediction center has put us in a slight risk for widespread severe weather tomorrow.  Refer to Justin’s blog from a couple days ago on Lightning Safety. 

We should have a lull in action through most of Thursday, but strong to severe storms will be likely on Friday.  Friday could be one of those days when everything could come together for a widespread severe weather threat.  Forecast models are hinting toward a very deep upper level trough to develop Friday afternoon, accompanied by a surface cold front.  The sheered environment will be favorable for super-cell development.  Just like any weather event, we will have to monitor changes in the upcoming days.  Here are a few links to read up on the severe weather potential… and more severe weather analysis

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

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Most of the news lately has focused on the oil "crisis" and global warming so I should spend some blog time on it. The big news in oil was the world oil summit with Saudi Arabia last weekend where the kingdom agreed to raise output by 200,000 barrels per day. Many people were un-impressed and claimed the Saudis are holding back some production capacity. First of all, it is their country and they can do anything they like with their oil. They can increase production or they can hold out for a higher price. Put yourself in their situation. If you owned the oil, would you let other countries of the world (like China and Russia) control how much you produce and sell? Secondly, the Saudis probably do not have a lot of extra capacity. The "easy to get" oil from their large fields is nearly gone, much like the rest of the world. A third thing to consider is that 200,000 barrels a day is not even a drop in the bucket. Remember that the world uses about 85 million barrels of oil per day. So the oil summit is really just a wasted exercise  – political theatre – in my view.

The other oil story building is "drill here, drill now". It is a new political effort in the U.S. to allow drilling in areas that have been off limits (like ANWR and in the Gulf). Estimates of how much oil that exists in these areas vary quite a bit but from all the different sources, I would say we can safely say it is in the range of 50 to 100 billion. The U.S. currently uses 20 million barrels a day so the optimistic 100 billion barrel estimate would supply the U.S. for about 13 years. That’s nice but not great. Of course, not all of this would come online in an instant. It would probably last much longer, but it still won’t bring the price down ll that much. The one positive about drilling in American territory is that the profits would stay in America. Right now when you fill up your tank, a good portion of that money is going into the pockets of dictators like Hugo Chavez. Even if drilling here and drilling now does not bring the price down that much (it won’t bring us back to the days of 1 or 2 dollars per gallon) at least the revenue and taxes would benefit American citizens.

On the same theme, how is the ethanol industry doing? At one point a few years ago it was hoped that ethanol could replace 10% or more of our liquid hydrocarbon fuel needs. Now that seems quite unlikely. I have heard anecdotal reports that ethanol plants will be shutting down this Fall because the price of corn is getting too high. Apparently the ethanol plants will not be able to produce and sell ethanol at a reasonable cost – that is the rumor anyway. The only way it would be profitable is if there is a massive increase in government subsidies (tax money). We’ll see. This could mark a turning point for grain (corn) ethanol production.

The energy news of course also leads into discussions of alternatives and AGW. I will dig into these tomorrow – including, for the 20th year in a row, James Hansen is predicting the end of the world unless we give up all fossil fuel today.

Present Weather:

It will be heating up and becoming muggy over the next couple of days. This increase in heat and humidity will eventually lead to higher thunderstorm chances and even severe weather. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms in the northern half of the area today (north of Wausau). As humidity increases and a cold front approaches the area tomorrow afternoon, the chance of thunderstorms will increase to 40%. The SPC is indicating a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow afternoon. It looks like the highest threat will be from hail and high winds.

We should catch a break from the thunderstorm chances on Thursday, then the highest chance of severe weather this week will develop on Friday. Over the weekend the wind will turn to the north once again and temps will cool down into the 70s. There is still at least a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday but only a slight chance of rain on Sunday.

Meteorologist Justin Loew

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June just may just end up being the 5 straight month with below average temperatures, but it looks like we end the month on a warm note.  We will continue to warm tomorrow, with high temperatures expected to be around 80 degrees.  Middle 80′s seem like a real possibility heading into Wednesday and Thursday.  This will certainly be the warmest we’ve been all year.  If we receive enough sunshine on Wednesday and Thursday, and dodge a few thunderstorms, we could be even warmer yet.  We can analyze this trend by looking at the predicted 850 MB temperatures.  In the weather world we usually refer to altitude in regards to pressure.  And the 850 MB level is a good height to look at overall temperature advections.  Here are two different maps from the "nam" forecast model…the first one is today and the second is a forecast for Wednesday.  Click on the images to make them larger.

Take a look at the color bar on the bottom of the screen to refer to the corresponding Celsius values with color.  You also want to look at the small arrows representing the winds.  By Wednesday you can see quite a push of warm air from the southwest.  Along with the warmer temperatures we will also tap quite a bit of moisture from the gulf of Mexico…so it also may get a little sticky.

Meteorologist

Brian Niznansky

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Hey all you guys out there – WATCH OUT FOR LIGHTNING! This week is lightning safety awareness week and while everyone should be careful, men it appears should take extra notice. Last year 45 people were killed by lightning in the U.S. 98% of those deaths occurred outside and 89% of the deaths were men! Either men spend more time outside or live a little more dangerously around lightning. In any case, everyone should review this great website about lightning safety maintained by the NWS.

Lightning will be a factor in the forecast, especially later this week. Temperatures will be warming up and the humidity will be increasing. A couple of storm systems will move into the upper Midwest the stronger of the two coming through later Thursday and into Friday. These factors will lead to the formation of thunderstorms. Chances will be slight (20%) on Tuesday and then increasing about 10% each day until Friday. So Thursday and Friday are the most likely days for thunderstorms and some of those storms could be severe with heavy rain…and I am still hoping for some heavy rain. I know that a few people had brief heavy downpours yesterday (Rhinelander had 0.48"), but most of the area only received a few hundredths of an inch. Here in Wausau we are closing in on a half inch below normal for the month.

By the weekend, things should settle down a bit. After high temps in the low 80s and high humidity on Thursday, temps will fall into the mid 70s on Saturday. There is still a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, then the weather should be dry on Sunday.

Space News:

If you are excited about the potential of private space flight and can’t wait for the price to come down so you can take your turn, there are a couple of upcoming events you should pay attention to. WhiteKnightTwo from Virgin Galactic will be unveiled on July 28th and Owen Garriot will take a trip to the ISS on October 12th. While passengers on Virgin Galactic sub-orbital flights will paying $200,000 for a couple minutes at the edge of space, Garriot has paid $30 million for his sojourn to the ISS. Like I mentioned earlier, it is going to take awhile for the price to come down into range where you and I can afford it. The good news is that 254 people have already signed up for trips with Virgin Galactic. If they have a thrilling time then more people will sign-up and help drive the price down. The main limitation that remains is gravity – it is so stubborn. All launch methods still rely on massive amounts of expensive explosive fuel.

I also wanted to acknowledge and thank a couple readers who left comments last week. Matthew mentioned some problems with the "Geendex" survey which rates U.S. consumers as the least environmentally friendly on the planet but ranks Brazil and India very high or near the top. The Greendex survey is heavily biased toward carbon emissions, otherwise the U.S. would rank very high. All measures of pollution (lead, mercury, ozone, acid rain, etc…) have gone down over the last 3 decades here in the U.S. There is vastly more forestland in the U.S. than 100 years ago. The air and the water is cleaner. In India it is the exact opposite, as many who have visited there can attest. The rivers and air are heavily polluted and some deforestation has happened. So while Indians might be using less fossil fuel, it doesn’t mean the country is sparkling clean. Pollution is something the India will have to grapple with eventually.

The same goes for China. This article actually has the audacity to ask whether China is a climate sinner or climate saint as defined by the global warming religion. As you well know, here in the U.S. we are all huge sinners because we get most of our electricity from coal. There has even been a push to ban the building of any new coal power plants (foolish for the short term, aren’t we dealing with high enough energy prices as it is?) because they are supposedly so terrible for the environment. In China it is estimated that they build 2 new coal power plants EVERY WEEK!. Is China a climate sinner? Yes. No Debate. Case Closed.

Meteorologist Justin Loew

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Not everyone enjoys rain and storms but I have to admit that this was my ideal weather this past weekend.  A lot of the storms I see are on radar but this weekend the sky was illuminated by both sunshine and spectactular cumulus congestus and cumulonimbus clouds!!!  I caught myself frequently staring outside of our skycam just to enjoy the picturesque scene.  With the terrain in central and north-central Wisconsin we don’t get good looks at the physical structure of storms but these storms were compact enough that you could see the small updrafts of each storm.  There was very little in the way of severe weather, just "garden-variety" thunderstorms – we only had one warning in Price county on Saturday for large hail.  However, many of the storms this weekend contained brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and hail up to 1/2" in diameter.  The reason why hail was a concern was because of the amount of cold air in the middle to upper-levels of the atmosphere.  Temperatures fell below freezing around 10,000 feet on Saturday and around 8500 feet today.  If we had more energy (CAPE) and moisture feeding into these storms no doubt there would have been several more severe thunderstorms but that wasn’t the case so we had "skinny" thunderstorms.

We had an upper-level low spinning across the area today and with what little sunshine we had (diurnal heating) that created enough instability to develop and re-develop showers and thunderstorms.  Rainfall amounts varied depending if you were caught in one of the heavier storms but a general tenth to half-inch of rain was common across the area.  You probably noticed that the sky looked ominous at times today and thats because the sunshine created a shadow on the clouds making it appear darker.

Clearing skies and lighter winds will lead to patchy fog developing overnight with lows a bit on the cool side as well in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.  High pressure will keep things quiet on Monday with sunshine and milder temperatures.  Even though winds will continue to be out of the north, the strong late-June sun will bump temperatures into the upper 70s.  More unsettled weather is expected for the remainder of the work week with off and on opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as another series of Pacific systems move over the Upper Midwest.  The good news is temperatures will feel more summer-like with readings climbing into the lower to middle 80s.  That is all for tonight, have a great night!

Meteorologist Megan Syner

Posted under Science

This one slipped by me yesterday (thanks to Megan for checking it out) – Merrill ended up breaking a record low. The low of 36 in Merrill on the 19th (yesterday) broke the old record of 39 set back in 1982. In Wausau we were only two degrees away from tying the record low of 42. We won’t be breaking any record lows over the next few days, in fact we should experience a gradual warm-up, although the weekend is not looking as warm or as dry as it once did earlier this week. Don’t worry, it will still be nice most of the weekend. I plan on going out fishing so you know it isn’t going to be too rainy. What we will have are relatively brief widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon, Saturday afternoon, and Sunday afternoon. I put the chance at about 20% today, and then 40% on Saturday and Sunday. If you happen to get hit by one of the stronger thunderstorms you could end up with a quarter to half inch of rain, some small hail, and brief gusty winds. When I say the activity will be relatively brief I mean the type of shower or thunderstorm that only lasts 15 to 30 minutes and then the sun comes out again. If you are hoping for more 80 degree weather (after today) you will have to wait until the middle of next week. High temps will be in the mid 70s on Saturday and in the low 70s on Sunday.

Energy News:

With the high price of gas and oil, there are a lot of news stories about new technology to replace fossil fuels. I report on many of the new discoveries right here in the blog. In this environment you have to be on the watch for "too good to be true" stories. Here is one that appeared on our website (Lifestyle section, technology, in the video player on the right). You can also watch the video here. It is about the "car that runs on water". This was also a big story back in the 1970s – thanks to an American inventor – Stan Meyer. Unfortunately this story is too good to be true. In the video you will notice that the inventor is careful to say that the car runs on water, but that there is a chemical reaction that takes place within their proprietary fuel cell to make electricity. Sure the car "runs on water" but it also needs another chemical reaction in order to work. The water goes into a fuel cell where it reacts with some sort of metal hydride. Electricity is produced and it runs an electric motor. Here is the rub, energy is being produced by the "chemical reaction". The metal hydride gets used up. After the metal hydride is used up, guess what, you have to replace it. Where is the metal hydride (or whatever reactant they are using) made? Who knows. Who cares. The point is you have to refill your car "that runs on water" with new chemicals, which are expensive and not as efficient as just using a battery to power your electric motor. I am not going to say Genepax is lying about their car "running on water", just that they are not giving you the whole story. Perhaps they are looking for a quick outside investment before they "let the cat out of the bag".

By the way, if you look up information on Stan Meyer and his water car you will find a lot of conspiracy theories about "big oil" and the government assassinating him because his invention was so revolutionary. The truth is that his car was the same (or similar) as the Genepax car. He bilked investors out of money. When he was asked to demonstrate the car in court, he couldn’t. End of story.

The truth is that in today’s day-and-age, huge earth-shattering scientific breakthroughs are rare. They do happen (quantum computing could be one), but they are rare. What we have instead are incremental breakthroughs – small improvements that matter. Here is one that I reported on last month and has made headlines once again. The headline "Solar Dish Could Revolutionize Energy Production" overstates the situation quite a bit. It isn’t anything new, just another solar concentrator, but it is made cheaply – that is the incremental improvement. It could be the world’s cheapest solar concentrator. Cheap solar panels are sorely needed in the marketplace. If the raw materials are widely available and low-cost, then more people will start using solar at home and work.

Here is another incremental improvement that could really boost the use of wind power. It is a cheaper more versatile wind turbine. It can operate close to the ground and can adjust easily to any wind speed or direction. It isn’t a huge breakthrough, but it makes it easier for people to invest in wind power. The cost of installing and operating this new wind turbine is less than $1 per watt – a new world record.

As far as cars go, there are plenty of electric options if you are in the market for one. You can buy high priced production models such as the Tesla, smaller NEVs, or even buy a conversion kit to transform and old gas car. Ed Mayo of Hazelhurst did just that. He drives around an electric model T ford. It gets 40 miles per charge. It is not going to beat any speed records, but as long as you are just driving around town, why not go electric. The gas price isn’t going back down to a dollar a gallon anytime soon. Electric cars require vastly less maintenance as well.

Space News:

Here is an update on the search for water on Mars. Scientists are very certain that they have confirmed the presence of water ice in one of the trenches dug by Phoenix. In the JPL article, click on the photo on the right hand side of the page, this will bring up a comparison of pictures taken a few days apart. Notice that the little chunks in the lower left disappear after a couple days exposed to the atmosphere. Those chunks are most likely water ice.

What about the Pluto planet controversy? Many astronomers think Pluto and other objects like it in the Kuiper belt (the far reaches of the solar system), should be called plutoids. Others think they should be called planets. Here is an article on the mysterious planet X that astronomers think exists out beyond pluto but has only been inferred to exist through gravitational effects. It has never been seen. Astronomers think it is bigger than Pluto. Even if it is bigger than Pluto, they still think it should be labeled a "plutiod" and not a planet. That got me to wondering how big a stellar object has to be in order to be considered a planet by the new naming convention. What if it was bigger than the earth or as big as Saturn – even if it is in the Kuiper belt, doesn’t it deserve to be classified as a planet?

Have a great weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

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