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We ended up with some nice rain yesterday, but it did not occur early enough in the week to be incorporated into the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. The Midwest part of the Monitor now shows moderate drought in parts of northern Wisconsin. And…I am really ticked-off about it. This is the 6th year in a row that we have experienced a significant period of drought in the northern half of the state. If I had some angry looking emoticons I would insert one right here. Instead I’ll just have to use the sad face

I am planning a vacation late next week and next weekend and I usually roam around in the northwoods hitting a few small trout streams. Some of the prettiest and most productive streams have been shrunk down to shells of their former selves in recent years and it has become tough to catch a fish. I was really jazzed about the above normal rainfall earlier in the summer. Now it looks like it might be the same old same old drought. I’ll have to stick to bigger rivers.

The bonus is that dry weather means great conditions for getting outdoors, at least this weekend (late next week could be a bit wet). As has been forecast by the Doppler 9000 Weather Squad over the last couple of days, it looks like hardly a cloud in the sky from today all the way through early Tuesday. High temps will warm from the upper 70s today into the low 80s Saturday and into the mid to upper 80s for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Some locations could even hit 90, making it one of the warmer periods of weather all year. The next chance of rain will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A couple more storm systems could move through the state late next week or next weekend – perhaps alleviating the drought.

AGW News:

Another story today about the Arctic sea ice getting the the second lowest point recorded in the last 29 years. Another story seemingly cheering on the meltdown so that a new record will be set. Still, the unspoken aspect of this year’s sea ice extent is that it is greater than last year. Once I hear someone speculating as to why this year has more ice than last year and if this increasing trend will continue or not, then I will be a little more interested.

On the carbon cuts aspect of AGW we find once again that other countries so quick to commit to Kyoto carbon reductions (and savagely attack the U.S for not following suit) failing to meet their "legally" binding targets. Japan will have to boost its investment because it is currently falling short of green power production. In the EU, not only have they not met their targets, they are now talking about changing their regulations in order to potentially exempt heavy industries from carbon cuts. Economic ministers project that steel and auto manufacturers will go bankrupt under the strict carbon reductions. Most economists figured this out a long time ago. Unless the entire world agrees to cuts, the countries without restrictions will gain a lot more heavy industry and manufacturing activity. Corporations are global entities, even EU corporations. They will move wherever they can make a profit. That is what they do. Companies that do not make a profit go bankrupt. Rather than onerous regulation, I would rather see investment in new cleaner technology. Which brings me to:

Alternative Energy:

Government investments and tax credits have been good for alternative energy but the business is also drawing in a lot of private investment. Nanosolar just garnered a massive 300 million dollar round of funding to expand production of their plants in San Jose and Berlin. Experts predict the market for thin film solar to increase from about a billion in 2008 to $3.3 billion in 2013. I think this projection is likely 2 or 3 times too low. Oil and gas prices will continue to rise and solar will look ever more attractive year over year. Technology is improving rapidly and 5 years is a long time. The thin film solar of today will be a shadow of what it will be in 5 years. Costs will continue to go down, even without government subsidies. Here is a more bullish prediction saying it will be possible to replace nearly all of U.S. fossil fuel usage with solar power by 2040. Here is a surprising little map showing 30 different solar installations either in operation or in development here in the U.S. I didn’t know there were so many.

Wind power is also looking for an expanding market – it could be worth 60.9 billion by 2013. While it is possible, wind does have a little more resistance as was discussed the last couple of days in the blog.

On a related note, it appears Mazda is working on a hybrid-electric vehicle similar to the Chevy Volt. Competition is good news for us consumers. I still can’t believe GM is working on the Volt 24/7. Why is it going to take 2 more years in order to get the Volt into the market? What are they doing with all those hours in a day? What are they doing today? Two years is a long time.

On another related note, a couple of Japanese shipping companies are installing solar panels on their large tankers. The solar panels will be used to generate electricity for the ship’s systems and could cut fossil fuel usage by as much as 6.5%.

Lastly, you can keep up to date on Gustav at the NHC website throughout the weekend. It still looks like it will hit somewhere along the Louisiana coast around Tuesday of next week.

Have a great holiday weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

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Regular blog readers will know that I am a happy camper today. I am sure many folks around northcentral have a smile on their face as well. Why? We received a very nice widespread rainfall this morning. Better yet, we got the rain and did not have to deal with severe weather. Here are some of the preliminary amounts I culled from the hourly reports: Wausau – 0.49", Wisconsin Rapids – 0.43", Stevens Point – 0.17", Medford – 0.38", Marshfield 0.29", Merrill – 0.78", Rhinelander – 0.66", Eagle River – 0.94", Clintonville – 0.03", Antigo – 0.37".

So other than Clintonville and other far eastern locations, most areas had enough rain to do some good. It isn’t enough to end the drought, but at least it is a start. I know I won’t have to water my garden this afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible around midday through early afternoon but I don’t think it will be as heavy as this morning and the eastern third (east of Marathon county) of the area will have the greatest chance. This might play into your Packer Pre-season plans as well. If you have some tailgating planned at Lambeau between 4 and 6pm, there might be some showers and thunderstorms. There is even a slight chance that a little rain could linger into the first quarter of the game, but most of the game should be dry. Once the rain leaves later today, it will be gone for quite some time. The next cold front and storm system will not affect our area until next Tuesday and Wednesday. This of course means the holiday weekend forecast is looking near perfect. High temps will be in the upper 70s today and Friday. On Saturday the mercury should reach the lower 80s during the afternoon. By Sunday and Monday most locations should experience high temps in the mid 80s with a few spots reaching the upper 80s to around 90. Mostly sunny skies should be the rule each day from Friday through Monday.

AGW News:

I was waiting for a story about arctic sea ice and the first one has arrived. Check it out here. If you remember back to last year, a record minimum amount of arctic sea ice was recorded. It was the lowest amount since satellite observations began back in 1979 – so it was the lowest in the 29 years that it has been accurately measured. You might also remember dire predictions that soon (some "experts" even said within a year or two) the arctic sea ice would completely melt during the late summer time period. This year there is more ice left than last year – so far. So the title of this article "Arctic Sea Ice Drops to 2nd Lowest Level on Record", seems sensationalized and designed to instill fear. Experts quoted in the article confirm this tilt – mentioning a lot of dire consequences. What I would rather know is why there is more sea ice this year than last year. A one year change is not enough to say there is a trend, however it is certainly interesting. The title should read "More Arctic Sea Ice this Year – Why?" That is a more intriguing angle. Will the upward trend in sea ice continue? If we have another cold winter like last year, it is certainly possible.

Energy News:

Earlier this week I linked to an article critical of wind power, citing some of the hurdles yet to be overcome. Here is another article detailing the infrastructure problems. The main stumbling block is getting long distance high transmission lines. Most of the wind capacity in the U.S. is in the Great Plains, but most of the electricity is needed at the coasts. Wind farms have been proposed in more populated areas such a Nantucket sound, but "great" environmentalists like the Kennedys shot down those ideas, saying it would ruin their view of the ocean from their multi-million dollar mansions.

The current electrical grid cannot handle the transmission across country. The high capacity lines could be built quite easily, but you guessed it, there is a lot of resistance to building the needed lines, especially from environmentalists. That is irony for you. Regulations regarding power transmission also vary from state to state. Building a super highway of transmission lines will require several state governments to agree – fat chance. Once the government is involved, things usually slow to a crawl and often times go backward. Having several states and the federal government involved will just make the problems exponentially worse. Which brings me to another article about how to move away from fossil fuels and toward a cleaner future.  Check out this quote:

But he’s not suggesting a new Manhattan Project. "Twelve guys and gals going off to Los Alamos won’t solve this problem," Friedman says. "We need 100,000 people in 100,000 garages trying 100,000 things — in the hope that five of them break through."

Our current efforts are not only inadequate, they’re hopelessly haphazard and piecemeal. Friedman argues it’ll take a coordinated, top-to-bottom approach, from the White House to corporations to consumers. "Without a systems approach, what do you end up with?" he asks. "Corn ethanol in Iowa."

Perhaps you notice the contradiction. Corn ethanol in Iowa IS a quintessential top-down approach to energy policy and it isn’t turning out very good. Why would we want to turn everything else over to the government as well? We live in an era of distributed evolutionary problem solving. The most successful corporations shy away from the top-down approach. Central planning has been a huge economic failure and drag on progress over the last century. The last thing I want to see is central planning on energy. Individuals adapting to economic conditions will arrive at the most optimum solution with little help from any government.

Back to the wind issue, another problem is storage. During the day, the turbines produce more energy than can be used. It would be good if we could efficiently store that energy for use at night when the wind is typically lower. Some people have proposed storing the energy as compressed air in underground caverns. A company called Energy Storage and Power plans to start developing this technology. I am still skeptical of storing compressed air underground. I find it hard to believe that there are air-tight caverns underground. Also, storing the air in tanks above ground seems less than desirable since it would take some awfully big tanks in order to store enough energy to power a city. I wish them luck.

What about Gustav? The tropical storm will likely become a hurricane later today and the official track still brings it near New Orleans by early next week. Check the latest here.

Have a super Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

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Gulf Coast Communities are already making preparations for what could be a very dangerous Hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.  Gustav is currently very unorganized and at the strength of a minimal Tropical Storm.  At 8 p.m. CDT Wednesday Gustav has winds sustained at only 45 m.p.h. , with a pressure of 999 m.b.  Gustav is likely to strengthen into tomorrow as it enters open waters.  Here is the latest forecasted track of Gustav…

The track is right at the median of the latest computer model outputs…

This storm is so far away and so much can happen, but you can’t ignore who is in the bullseye right now…New Orleans..  This will certainly grab a ton of national attention in the coming days.  Officials in the Big Easy today said the current levee situation is better than before Katrina. 

The biggest factor right now will be how long the upper level ridge of high pressure over the southeast U.S. holds in place.  Forecast models have the ridge breaking down by the weekend.  This will allow Gustav to switch from a westerly track to a northerly track.  If the ridge holds longer than expected…Gustav continue its westerly track, possibly into Mexico.  If the ridge breaks down sooner than expected…communities in the Florida Panhandle need to be on the toes.  I’m leaning more towards the 2nd possibility.  Take a look at historical plots of past Hurricanes from this current location…by far the majority make that turn north sooner.

No matter what the track, it is becoming likely that we will have a Major Hurricane on our hands, Category 3 or higher as the storm fuels off of the warm gulf waters.

Here is a link that you can keep tabs on Gustav… and one of my favorite Tropical blogs

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

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A potentially super forecast is setting up for the next few days – including the upcoming holiday weekend. The key will be whether or not we receive some heavy rain later tonight or Thursday. If the clouds can squeeze out over a half inch of rain during this time frame, it will make the weekend all that much better. For me it is hard to enjoy a nice sunny weekend during a drought.

So will there be over a half inch of rain? The odds are looking a little better today than yesterday. The cold front approaching the area is slowing down and that will give it an opportunity to pick up a bit more moisture. Most of today will be nice with partly sunny skies. The chance of showers or thunderstorms will increase to about 30% after midnight tonight and then to 60% on Thursday (up from 50% earlier this morning). While it is looking more likely that there will be rain, I can’t guarantee everyone will end up with "heavy" rain. At least one computer model now indicates a possibility of over an inch with some of the heavier thunderstorms. Keep your fingers crossed.

After the cold front moves through it looks like pretty clear sailing from get-away-Friday all the way through Monday. The next chance of rain will come on Tuesday of next week. We should have mostly sunny skies as well for the holiday weekend with high temps in the mid to upper 70s on Friday and Saturday and in the low 80s Sunday. On Monday the mercury could reach the mid 80s. By the middle of next week we could end up with our first blast of cool Fall air with high temps only in the low 70s.

I did check with the NWS about the driest August on record for Wausau. Our monthly precipitation record book here at the station only goes back to 1940. If you go all the way back to 1913, you will find that Wausau only officially received 0.82 inches of rain during August. This year we have received 0.75 inches. Here’s hoping we have enough rain tonight or tomorrow to let that record stand.

Tropical Storm Gustav (that’s right demoted to tropical storm overnight), is moving away from Haiti and is expected to become a hurricane. The official 5 day track shows it making landfall in New Orleans, however there are typically very large errors in track forecasts once you get beyond three days – so take it with a grain of salt. It could still end up over Florida or Mexico. However, if Gustav does make landfall as a major hurricane in southern Louisiana on Sunday or Monday, I know one political party that will be very upset as mainstream news coverage will undoubtedly focus exclusively on weather.

Have a fun Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

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One good thing about dry weather is that we don’t end up with much severe weather. Other than a couple of extreme events – such as June 7th of 2007 and August 18th of 2005 – the last handful of years have been rather tranquil. Even in 2005, when there was a record 62 tornadoes in the state of Wisconsin, the vast majority were F0 strength, a few were F1, and if memory serves me right there were only 2 F2 tornadoes and 1 F3 (the Stoughton Tornado). This year started out with a bang with a record number of January tornadoes in Wisconsin and a high number across the U.S. throughout the Spring. Once Summer hit, the numbers started to go down and so far this August there have only been 59 tornadoes reported in the entire country. You can check the latest stats here. Most of the tornadoes this August have been associated with tropical storm Fay and its remnants. Once again today, the remnants of Fay have prompted a tornado watch in parts of Georgia and South Carolina. The worst effects from Fay have been flooding but this is also the best effect from Fay. Much of the southeast U.S. is in its second year of drought (check the U.S. Drought Monitor) and Fay is bringing the heaviest rain in a long time. Not enough to completely bust the drought but enough to help out a bunch.

Speaking of tropical activity, there is another storm that will make headlines over the next few days. It is hurricane Gustav. For the latest on Gustav check here. It is currently expected to become a major hurricane if it makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico.

We could use a decaying tropical system here in Northcentral Wisconsin in order to break our dry spell. Unfortunately we will have to settle for a weak cold front. The front will approach the area late Wednesday and then slowly move through on Thursday. It might move slow enough to pick up a little more moisture. The newest computer projections indicate some heavier rain possible on Thursday. How much are we talking? Maybe around a half inch. I am not getting my hopes up too high yet. I am still officially only forecasting a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

One aspect of the forecast that is looking more certain is dry conditions once again for the weekend. At this point it looks like one of the best holiday weekends in recent memory. High temps should be in the mid to upper 70s on Friday and Saturday and then rise into the 80s on Sunday and Monday.

Space News:

How about a little update on Bigelow Aerospace and their plans for a space hotel. In a recent press conference, Robert Bigelow confirmed the success of the first 2 test habitats currently orbiting the earth and his plans to eventually spend 500 million of his own money to get the project off the ground. So there is reason to be optimistic for all you wannabe space tourists.

Then again, if you have plans to ultimately travel "to the stars", maybe there is reason to be pessimistic. A panel of rocket propulsion experts recently concluded that interstellar travel is still mostly fantasy. Nothing we have, or could imagine in the near term, will be capable of sending any human to the nearest star within a normal human lifespan. This isn’t the end of the story though. After a couple decades of progress physicists and engineers might invent a new form of travel and/or propulsion, it is just out our reach and imagination today. So, we will have to settle for exploring the solar system.

At least our robotic explorers are doing a great job. The Cassini mission to Saturn has been an exciting eye-opener. Here is a little two minute video highlighting some of the mission’s successes. On a side note, NASA is getting a lot better at presenting their information in a user friendly and eye-catching way. It is great to see all the pictures and video arriving on our video screens soon after they are transmitted to earth.

What about future robotic exploration? If you remember back in February there was a test of an autonomous underwater robot in Lake Mendota at UW Madison. These tests are being done in preparation for a possible future visit to Jupiter’s moon Europa. Check out this article about the latest thoughts on the possibility of life existing on Europa. The plans for a robot probe include melting through the ice covered Europan surface down to the ocean that exists below. Considering how difficult it has been for Phoenix to dig through the soil on Mars, it would seem an almost insurmountable challenge to land on Europa and melt through a couple miles of ice.

Then again, robotic and computer technology is advancing fast and we should expect improvements. The pace of technological change was mentioned recently at the Intel Developer Forum. A good review can be found here. Intel seems firmly in the camp that computers are becoming more "intelligent" and the combination of human and machine intelligence will lead to a "super-intelligence" at some point around mid century. The official term for a rapid increase in intelligence is "technological Singularity". If you follow tech news, Ray Kurzweil, or Vernor Vinge, you are probably familiar with the concept. If not you can check out this wiki entry. Conveniently, an article about Vernor Vinge appeared today in the New York Times.

Alternative Energy News:

Wind power has gotten a lot of headlines lately with the advent of the Pickens Plan. It is a relatively cheap way to generate electricity and the U.S. is the "Saudi Arabia of wind". However, not everyone is on the bandwagon. Here is an opinion piece outlining some of wind’s shortcomings. Warning: it is politically slanted, however, there are some interesting stats about the hurdles to overcome regarding alternative energy.

Sometimes the main hurdle to becoming more environmentally friendly are the environmentalists themselves. Some environmentalists have been wary of wind energy from the beginning because of aesthetics and the threat to wildlife. The newest problem seems to be with bats. The swirling blades of the large wind turbines create swirls of low pressure. The low pressure is strong enough to rupture blood vessels in the lungs of bats.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

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Not quite "Frost on the Pumpkin" but how about Frost on the Flowers.  Sunday was by far the coolest night we’ve had since the months of spring.  Low temperatures dipped as low as 32 in Merrill.  Rhinelander also tied a record low at 34.  Frost was reported as far south as Athens.  Monday night and Tuesday morning we can expect similar conditions with mainly clear skies and calm winds.  Even though actual freezing numbers(32F or below) were few and far between, this was a few weeks earlier than average.  Here is a map of average freezes state-wide.

You can see on average most of the area doesn’t see it’s first freeze until the end of September.

Last year the first freeze in Wausau occurred on September 15th.  We didn’t hit freezing on the 14th but we actually had some light snow showers in the area.  By the morning of the 15th we bottomed out at 30 degrees.  I remember this very well, because that was the morning we had the Annual 9 Iron Golf Challenge here at Channel 9.  High temperatures that day only rose to around 50!!!.

So with cooler times ahead, what can you do to protect your flowers or plants?  Well any night that we are expecting frost or freezing temperatures you can do a couple of things.  First of course you can cover these plants.

To cover sensitive plants you can use anything light in weight like a very light sheet, light shower curtain or even unfolded news paper for smaller flowers.

Here are a couple other tricks you can do to protect your plants….

Cover the soil surrounding the plants with bark, mulch, or leaves.  This will prevent the actual ground from freezing.

Another great prevention is to simply water your garden well in advance of nightfall, your soil will then release moisture in the air during the night, this will keep the surrounding air a couple degrees warmer.

The next tip I’m taking from LawnLovers.com….very creative…

"You can collect heat during the day by painting plastic milk jugs black and filling them with water. Place them around your plants where they will collect heat during the day. Water loses heat more slowly than either soil or air. This collected heat will radiate out throughout the night"

On a quick other note, I never get to toot my horn very often but I just can’t hold it in.  Last night TV9 took home the first place trophy in our Sunday night Softball League… woo hoo!!!

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

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Frost! Record lows. Dry weather. All three are related in that the latter makes the first two more likely. When the air is dry we typically have very large swings in temperature between night and day. If there is not much moisture in the soil then many plants go dormant and do not evaporate moisture during the day. Evaporation typically cools things down a bit.  Moisture in the soil also keeps the ground a bit warmer at night. Moisture in the air will help to form fog or low clouds on cool nights. Last night the air was dry, the skies were clear, and the winds were nearly calm. This led to the first frost of the season. Merrill and Land O Lakes officially dropped down to 32. The 32 degree reading in Merrill was cold enough to tie the record low. The old record of 32 was set in 1977. In Rhinelander the mercury dropped to 34 which tied the old record from 1917. Here in Wausau the low was 42 and that was not too far away from the record of 37 set back in 1917. A couple of folks around the Wausau area and central Wisconsin called in with reports of frost on the roof tops. The last time we had frost so early in the season was 2004. In August of 2004 we had three different occasions of frost in Northcentral Wisconsin. August of that year was drier than normal by over 2 inches. Just last year we had an early official frost and record low temperature in Wausau on September 15th (30 degrees). In the two weeks leading up to the record low temperature there was only about one half inch of rain.

Will we experience an early "official" frost once again this year. The chances are a little higher if the weather remains dry, and it looks like it will be mostly dry for the next week or so, then we could get into a bit wetter pattern the week after Labor Day. We will start out this week with sunny skies both today and tomorrow. A weak cold front will move in on Wednesday night and produce a slight chance of thunderstorms. A bit stronger cold front will affect the area on Thursday night into Friday morning and it should bring a 30  to 40% chance of thunderstorms. Since the air is rather dry, I am not expecting any drought-busting rain but any little bit would help.

By Friday afternoon, high pressure should develop over Wisconsin once again leading to a great Labor Day weekend. If the current projection holds up we should have plenty of sunshine from Friday afternoon all the way through Sunday. The next chance of rain would be a slight chance of thunderstorms late Monday.

So the near term looks dry and perhaps a little above normal. What about the long term? The latest computer model projections from the CPC have arrived. The following are the projected chances of above or below normal temperatures for the months of September (this year) though February of 2009. They are in order and the more red the color, the more likely it will be above normal, according to the computer projection.   As you can see, there is a chance of below normal temps in the central part of the nation during September then the chances turn greatly toward above normal temps from October through February with a real significant bullseye of "red" (high chance of warmer than normal weather) right over Wisconsin during December and January. Just a note, the long range projections have not been to accurate as of late. For the about the last 10 months the models have been consistently predicting a warmer trend, yet the has been one of the cooler years in recent memory. If you want to check out the precipitation predictions head on over to the CPC.

If the weather does end up warmer and drier than normal for the last couple months this year, it will end up being our 6 year in a row with below normal precipitation, which you know makes me quite sad. I hate to see the water levels on the rivers, streams, and lakes become quite low. It is also stressful for farmers. Even though it is turning dry again (see the latest U.S. Drought Monitor), we should be thankful it is not like the 1930s, or like some of the mega droughts of the past. Recent research has shown that some droughts in eastern North America lasted for many decades and even more than a century.

Even though we have not had much precipitation lately, there was an interesting "land-spout" type funnel cloud photographed in the northwoods back on August 13th. A couple people have sent in photographs of this ominous funnel cloud. This particular picture was taken by Lance Lewandowski near Manitowish Waters. Have a great Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

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Another day, another dollar, or should I say drought. Precipitation has been sparse and it looks like we will have one good shot this week before more dry weather develops this weekend and continues through the middle of next week. Two weather systems should combine to produce at least a 50% chance of rain on Friday. First, here is a weak trough of low pressure over the southern plains. This weather system produced flooding rains over Texas and Oklahoma earlier this week and at least part of it will move north toward Wisconsin late Thursday and continue through the state on Friday. This will increase the humidity and bring at least a slight chance of thunderstorms. A cold front will move in from the west on Friday night and will boost the chance of thunderstorms up to 50%. With the high humidity in the area, I am holding out hope for more than a half inch of rain in some spots.

A couple storms might linger into early Saturday morning, then a cooler and drier northwest wind will take over leaving us with gorgeous late summer weather by Saturday afternoon and it will continue into Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. There is a slight chance of rain during the middle of next week. I don’t see any real big change in the pattern until Labor Day weekend or later.

We could use some of the rain that is now soaking Florida. Tropical storm Fay continues to skirt the coast and might just yet become a hurricane if it moves westward and ends up over the Gulf of Mexico. You can check the latest forecasts here. The one interesting thing about Fay is its unusual track. Never has a tropical system had so many opportunities to become a hurricane, yet it took a path that kept it over land for the maximum amount of time possible. This is a hard thing to do considering it was over the Atlantic ocean and Caribbean sea. It traveled over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, and now Florida. If the track had varied by a little as 50 miles out over the ocean for even a half a day longer, it would have likely reached hurricane strength. As is, the worst damage that occurred from Fay was from a couple tornadoes spawned in the outer bands of the storm while it was moving northward through Florida.

Energy News:

As you know, I am a big proponent of switching over to an electric economy (especially transportation) to gradually replace fossil fuels. At one point, I reported favorably on most alternatives and gave them a fair shake. Over the last couple of years it has become increasingly obvious that going with electric vehicles is better than ethanol, biofuels, natural gas, hydrogen, compressed air, etc… In that regard, it was nice to see this article take a whack at hydrogen. The author claims hybrids will be big over the next few years and this makes sense. Hybrids allow you to use electricity for short distances and liquid hydrocarbons (gasoline) for long journeys. The technology exists today and plug-in hybrids will be in showrooms next year. The same cannot be said for the alternatives. Battery and ultracapacitor technology keeps getting better every year and should make the plug-in hybrids even more attractive after 2010. If you are interested in reading more about one of the leading electric car manufacturers today check out this article about Tesla and its chief engineer. Here is another article (quite long) about a big investment in electric vehicles.

Some of you might be wondering where all of this electricity is going to come from. I hope we continue to see more expansion of wind and solar power generation (although not everyone agrees wind is feasible and cheap). Another avenue could be geothermal. Google just invested 10 million dollars in geothermal development. They have also invested in high altitude (kites) wind power generation.

Even if biofuels and ethanol are not the best solution for transportation, there is still a chance it could find a niche market by using organic waste to make gasoline. This article claims that gasoline can be made from waste material for about $1.75 to 2.00 per gallon. Not too bad.

Have a great day! I will be on vacation the next couple of days. See you again on Monday. Meteorologist Justin Loew.

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Warm Ocean waters is the key ingredient for tropical systems, but Tropical Storm Fay defied this and dumbfounded meteorologists across the country by strengthening over land today in Florida.  After Fay made landfall pressure dropped nearly 10 m.b., increased winds and even formed a well defined eye-wall.  Fay did not reach Hurricane status but came close, which really would’ve thrown people through a loop.  Here is Radar and Satellite imagery well after Fay made landfall, showing the storm at its peak strength.

Notice the well defined eye-wall in the center of Fay, organization not seen until several hours after Fay’s Landfall….remarkable!!!

My only conclusion would be that Fay was able to feed off of Lake Okeechobee and other bodies of water, for its strengthening source…just strange.  Fay is expected to maintain Tropical Storm strength until it enters the Atlantic, where then Fay may then become a Hurricane.  Fay then is forecasted to track back to the coast and make a second landfall in Northern Florida and Georgia.  Here are the latest computer model tracks…

The only time I have ever seen something like this was back in 2005 when Hurricane Wilma made landfall on the south west tip of Florida.  Wilma was able to maintain its strength as it worked through the Everglades.  Eventually pounding the Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas with winds over 100 M.P.H. 

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

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An amazing thing happened in Northcentral Wisconsin yesterday. Two inches of rain fell. Before you call the authorities and have me committed, hear me out. Some isolated showers formed in the late afternoon and evening. Those of you who live along County Road A near Peters Marsh in Langlade county or just north of Wabeno on Higway 32 know what I am talking about. You folks were some of the few who had a brief shower late yesterday. There was one other area rain fell and it turned out to be much more than a brief shower. From about 6 pm to 7:30 pm rain fell in a small corridor from the intersection of Highway 64 and X in far southeastern Lincoln county into much of the Town of Hewitt in Marathon county but not much farther south than Highway 52. It was a tiny area where the atmospheric conditions lined up just right to produce a semi-stationary convective shower. Our radar system estimated a little more than 1.5 inches fell in that area. A viewer called in this morning and reported 2.0 inches in the rain gauge. She said it was the most wonderful steady rain she has seen in a while, and "just what the doctor ordered". Too bad it occurred in less than 1% of the viewing area. What we need is a rain event that affects over 99% of the area.

For those hoping for some heavier rain, it looks like we will have to wait until late Friday before the chances increase dramatically. There is a slight chance of rain Thursday night through Friday morning, then a 50% chance by Friday night as a stronger cold front moves through. If we are lucky, much of the area could end up with a half inch or so. If we don’t get rain Friday night, then we might have to wait until the middle of next week for another significant storm system to traverse the upper midwest.

One place in the country getting a lot of heavy rain is Florida – due to tropical storm Fay. As I predicted yesterday, Fay did not strengthen into a hurricane, although you might have thought it was the storm of the century if you were following the major media outlets last night and this morning. It must be a pretty slow news cycle. I am not sure the last time I saw so much coverage of a tropical storm. One of the themes during the coverage was that Florida residents were not taking Fay seriously. Government officials were upset that people were jumping when they said jump – like the media did. The reality of the situation is that people had access to the same information as everyone else from the forecasters to the governor. It was pretty obvious that Fay had little chance to become a hurricane and if it did, it would only affect a small area along the coast with hurricane force winds. As it turned out, winds near the core only reached 60mph, while most folks felt gusts only in the 30 to 40 mph range. There was also the normal threat of tornadoes and heavy rain (up to 10 inches). These are problems, but they are problems most people can deal with. They knew they didn’t have to board up the windows or evacuate. As I mentioned yesterday, the cost of shutting everything down and evacuating outweighs the benefits of staying put only when a hurricane reaches a certain threshold. You can find out the latest on Fay by going to www.nhc.noaa.gov

Energy News:

Since I haven’t covered alternative energy news too much in the last week, there is a lot to get to. First there is an announcement of two new solar projects going up in California., both of which will be photovoltaic. These could produce 800 megawatts on a sunny day. The only drawback I can see to these solar plants is their size. They will cover 12.5 suqare miles of land. It is a good thing California has a lot of space in the desert. According to this article (about the benefits of  solar thermal), the U.S. is the "Saudi Arabia" of solar energy – if it can be developed. Any country that wants to get serious about solar energy is going to need of lot of space out in the sun. That makes California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico prime areas for development. In Europe, it will be a tougher development because of the high population density in the sunny areas and elsewhere. I would tend to think their best bet would be high efficiency rooftop solar panels.

Speaking of solar thermal energy, a research team at Worcester Polytechnic Institute has been researching a novel way to heat water using the sun – by putting tubes filled with water under asphalt. All of that heat being absorbed by the blacktop on a hot summer day could be put to good use. The most advantageous aspect of this idea is that we would have to find new places or land to install this solar energy collector. There are millions and millions of acres already paved over. Whan a road is scheduled for re-building or resurfacing, the tubes/channels for the water could be laid in – so it would be implementd slowly over time. The problem is maintaing the integrity of the water ducts/tubes. If you know anything about roads in northern climates, you know they take quite a beating – from heavy traffic to thermal expansion and contraction during the winter and summer.

On the cost front, Biosolar has announced a way to make solar backpanels out of cellulose and natural nylon instead of plastic. This makes the backpanels cheaper and more environmentally friendly.

Lastly a viewer picture. This one was taken by Tom Thomas of Madison back on August 13th while he was in the St. Germain area of northern Wisconsin (Vilas County). There were isolated thunderstorms on that day and a few funnels were spotted (called cold air funnels). None of these funnels touched down and were not associated with severe weather. There are some days when the conditions are just right to form these type of funnels. They rarely touch down. Have a super Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

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