It is getting cooler outside and perhaps you have dreams of ice fishing right around the corner (ok, maybe just a few of you), so how about a "cool" little discussion about how fast water freezes. Does hot water freeze faster than cool water? You would think the answer is no, but it might not always be the case, depending on the conditions. Why would hot water freeze faster than cold water (an effect first reported by Erasto Mpemba in 1963)? There are several reasons. First, hot water evaporates faster so by the time it freezes there is less mass than in a similar volume of cold water. A smaller volume of water freezes faster. Faster evaporation from the hot water assists the cooldown as well. A third factor is convective currents within the hot water. When water at the top evaporates it cools down and sinks to the bottom. Stronger convective currents in the hot water could cause a faster cooldown. There are of course limits to this effect. If you start out with a volume of water at 120 degrees and another at 33 degrees, the 33 degree water is going to freeze first. But there are certain temperature ranges where the effect can be measured.

On the subject of ice, it appears there will be no record low amount of arctic sea ice this year. If there was, believe me, you would have heard about it through every website and media outlet in the world. Instead what has been reported is a possible record low volume of sea ice (not a record low surface area). Also the article above mentions a possible record rate of ice loss during August. Call me cynical (its alright) but it seems since there was no record low in surface area, many AGW theorists are trying to frame the "ice issue" in as worst terms as possible to keep people worried. I suppose if there was no hype then people might not support green initiatives, laws, and regulations.  A bigger problem with AGW regulations is that they are going to cost money – lots of money. The question in many people’s mind is whether all the bad things predicted to happen because of AGW are worse the the economic pain of the regulations. Airlines have thus far been excluded from strict carbon regulations but there is pressure to include them in the future and here is an article claiming the airline industry will have to contract (as well as shipping) in order to cut carbon emissions. Many could go out of business and there will definitely be less travel and shipping options. Higher shipping costs will filter down to consumers. Here is an article assessing the risk vs. reward. Climate projects will cost billions, but they will save billions in the future is the worst AGW projections come to pass. Some European leaders are worried that people will not want to pay for climate projects because of the recent downturn in the economy. Spending billions on climate projects (regulations, and carbon trading schemes) will extend the economic downturn.

Some people are pushing for more nuclear power generation in order to combat AGW. The main problem in most people’s mind is the radioactive waste. Here is some good news about de-activating radioactive waste. New research suggests that nuclear waste could be "treated" so that it loses its radioactivity in a couple hundred years instead of a couple million years. This would make nuclear power a little more palatable to some folks.

Solar energy is also a bright spot in the AGW and alternative energy story. U.S. researchers have set a new efficiency record at 40.8%. This is of course an expensive prototype, but bodes well for the future. Unfortunately, the technology advances are not the only part of the solar story. Economics also come into play. At least one company is expecting a downturn in the solar business in the next couple of years. They say the solar business is experiencing a bubble and it will burst leaving up to 80% of solar companies bankrupt. Wow. Be careful if you are investing in some of the newer solar stocks. The key in this business is the price of oil and coal generated power. If the price of oil drops below $100 a barrel and stays there, then it will make it tough on the solar business. The higher the price of oil, the more solar companies will stay in business. One aspect that people might forget about is that national governments around the world provide a lot of solar subsidies. If the economic downturn continues then some of the subsidies might dry up.

How about a nice viewer picture to round things out today. This one was taken by Carolyn Ball of Antigo. The colors are very near the peak in the northern half of the area so this week would be a good time to go out and see them. The problem is that we will have we will have more clouds than sun from today through Thursday. Friday and Saturday should have more sun. High temps on Friday will be in the low to mid 50s. Saturday could be the best day with high temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. The next chance of significant rain will be on Sunday.

Have a fine Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

The first true Autumn air mass has arrived, bringing much cooler temperatures to the area.  Highs this week will only top out in the 50′s.  Low temperatures will be chilly, but maybe not as chilly as what you would expect.  This will be solely due to cloud cover.  Numerous times on air you will hear me harp about cloud cover for the night.  That is because the amount of clouds play just as big of a role as anything else when it comes to determining temperatures.  In other words, our nighttime temperatures are influenced by cloud cover just as much as how sunshine effects the daytime temperatures.  The easiest way to describe this is the silly analogy that clouds act like a blanket in the sky, but it is true.  Check out the diagrams for visuals…

With clear skies, heat from the day is able to rise far away from the surface.  With clouds, a good deal of the heat from the day will be trapped near the surface.  Going a little bit further, this will also effects the next days temperatures.  If we start off warmer, that will in turn bump up the following daytime high. 

So this quick little lesson will actually play a huge role in this week’s forecast.  Even though high temperatures will only be in the 50′s.  I am forecasting lows generally in the upper 30′s to around 40.  With this cold air mass upon us, we will have to watch the nighttime cloud cover closely.  If we see enough clearing on any given night, we could be talking about freezing temperatures instead(32F), with plenty of frost.

Just another quick chilly note…. we are closely watching an even stronger push of cold air later this week.  The latest forecast model runs show another rush of chilly air by Thursday night.  Take a look at this forecast model….

Locate the thickness line labeled 540… The most important thing to note here is anything above this line indicates upper air cool enough to support some type of frozen precipitation, and yes that includes snowflakes.  As of now I have not mentioned anything in the way of frozen precipitation in the official forecast and would like to see another model run or two.  Right now if anything, there may be a few lake effect snow showers developing Thursday night and into Friday for the far north….nothing major!!  And as of right now I am hesitant to even mention it on air.

Meteorologist

Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

What the heck happened on Sunday!? I was forecasting mostly sunny skies and high temps in the upper 60s. There were a couple of spots where that forecast was true, but for most of Northcentral Wisconsin it was gloomy cool day. The high temp in Wausau only reached 58. I take pride in the fact the my forecast is usually spot-on so it bothered me quite a bit. High pressure moved over the state on Sunday and that usually means fair weather. This time around some moisture got trapped below the high pressure system and the sun nor the wind was strong enough to break it up. Where did the moisture come from? It came from the heavy rain and thunderstorms that occurred Friday night into Saturday morning in Northern Minnesota (and to a lesser extent in northern Wisconsin). A north wind developed on Saturday and advocated the low level moisture into central Wisconsin where it became trapped under the high pressure. So I apologize for anyone who took a Fall color drive expecting a bit more sunshine. Maybe you can get out later this week to see the beautiful colors as it looks like more sunshine and warmer temps will develop from Thursday through Saturday. Today through Wednesday will be the coolest Fall weather we have experienced so far with high temps in the 50s. Light showers will be the rule today and a bit for tomorrow (mainly east of Wausau) and Wednesday should be dry.

Energy News:

A lot of alternative energy news is about new "breakthroughs" and "big ideas" that will have wide application but as I have mentioned in the past, incremental increases in energy efficiency is just as important. Here is a story about a new type of chemical reactor that uses "foam" to create end-products. This isn’t a reactor in the same sense as a nuclear reactor, it is a chamber where chemicals are mixed and transformed into products that are needed for industry. It turns out that the "foam" reactor has a lot more surface area and can make the end-products up 10 times more efficiently. Since the chemical industry consumes a lot of energy (and is critically important to our daily lives and economy) this is actually big news.

In a similar vein, here is an advance in water filtration that will save energy in the future. The new filtration membrane has nanoparticles within it and this allows water to flow through more freely. Since fresh water resources on land are coming under increasingly heavy demand, this type of advance could be very critical for desalination of ocean water in the future.

For information on a new device that could increase your car’s fuel efficiency by 10 to 20%, check my blog post from this weekend.

One way I save energy is by riding a bike to work and around town and I plan to buy an electric car in the near future. One thing I haven’t looked into are electric bikes. Here is a nice article about how the bike industry is booming and what new e-bikes are coming into the market. An ebike is one that you can pedal or run it with an electric motor. Toshiba and Schwinn have collaborated on a new ebike that will be for sale soon. Reports indicate it will travel up to 25 miles on one charge. The drawback – it will retail for $3,200. That is way too expensive for my budget. I will have to wait until the price comes down before I could consider purchasing one.

Speaking of electric vehicles, even heavy equipment operators are getting in on the action. Caterpillar has created some of the largest EVs in the world for mining operations. It is an interesting article but I was disturbed by a flippant comment by the author Kieth Barry:

Caterpillar rolled out its new behemoths this week during the 2008 MINEXpo show in Las Vegas, and company president Stu Levenick crowed, "New technologies have allowed us to make trucks more reliable, easier to maintain and more friendly to the operator and to the environment," though we don’t see how chopping off mountaintops is friendly to the environment.

Would he rather the mining companies not make more efficient less polluting vehicles? Also, mining is extremely critical to everything we do as a society nowadays. No doubt Mr. Barry has a computer and all sorts of digital gadgets (and most of his house and other possessions as well) that are possible because of mining. Also, it is not necessarily "real bad" for the environment, just different. A lot of former mining areas here in Wisconsin are now lakes and/or forested areas with little sign of the former mining operations. Mining towns also benefit through jobs and tax revenue (if only temporary).

Have a super Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

Time to blog and I don’t have anything too write about. I guess it is a writer’s block since this is the 6th day in a row and 7th shift this week. I am putting in a little extra time while we get our new weekend/Fox meteorologist up to speed. So I guess this would be a good time to remind everyone that you can send in pictures to weather@waow.com. I use a lot of viewer photographs on Wake-up Wisconsin and here in the blog. If you have any pictures of the Fall colors, nature scenes, sunsets/sunrises, severe weather, or anything else beautiful or interesting, feel free to send them in. I mostly enjoy pictures from Wisconsin and the Midwest but occasionally I’ll use something from another part of the country. Also, remember that you can comment on the blog. So if you read something interesting or odd and want to sound-off about it, leave a comment (below).

Most of the weather/tech/science news happens during the week so it is a little more difficult to find new articles over the weekend, but here is one: A new device improves fuel efficiency by up to 20%. Now this is the type of thing I am usually very skeptical about. I am old enough to have seen dozens (maybe hundreds) of miracle devices and chemicals that claim to improve your gas mileage dramatically and almost all of them have been bunk. There are some fancy carburetor designs that have been proven to increase fuel efficiency a bit, but nothing huge. This device is basically a electromagnet that goes around your fuel line right before it enters the fuel injector. It apparently makes the fuel less viscous and this makes for finer droplets going into the injector – and more efficient burning. It was apparently tested on a Mercedes diesel engine and improved the gas mileage from 32 mpg to 38 mpg. This sounds great, however I would like to see a little more testing before I believe it completely. Modern fuel injectors are already very efficient so it is hard to imagine a 20% gain in fuel efficiency. Let us assume this is true and there isn’t any chicanery going on, it still doesn’t mean this device will be a success. Sometimes the experimental set-up or the testing conditions can influence the results. This will need to be tested in many different driving conditions and vehicles before I will be a complete believer.

Have a super Saturday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

Well the forecast really hasn’t changed much since I wrote earlier today, although I am dropping the rain chance just a bit for tomorrow. There is still a 50% chance of showers or thunderstorms in the northwoods tonight and tomorrow morning, but just a 30% chance in the central and southern part of the area. Farther south and east of Marathon county the chance will continue through late afternoon, but for most of us the scattered rain will move through from mid morning through early afternoon (before 3pm).

Here is an interesting story that I didn’t have time for earlier. One scientist has come up with a possible explanation of noctilucent clouds. It is thought that the cloud particles attract sodium and iron atoms floating around in the mesosphere (at the edge of space). The fellow once again speculates that the clouds are caused by anthropogenic global warming (AGW) – although it isn’t explained why – same as other noctilucent cloud researchers. It just seems to be in vogue nowadays to blame most things on global warming. The first time the clouds were observed was after the explosion of the Krakatoa volcano back in 1885. A volcano produced the clouds back then. Why is AGW doing it now? What about space travel. If the presence of the clouds increased during the latter half of the 20th century perhaps it is because we have been sending a lot of rockets into space (and then many of them end up burning up in the atmosphere). Couldn’t this deposit some iron and sodium (or other elements) into the mesosphere. Just speculating here but I figure it is just as good of a speculation as blaming AGW.

Some good new from the Mars rover Opportunity. Mission planners are sending it on its longest trip yet. It will be traveling to a crater on Mars that is many times larger than Victoria crater. You can view the picture in the article for a comparison. Although it is a long trek and there is a good chance the rover could break down before it reaches the new destination, I think it is a good move. The more the rover travels, the more likely it is going to stumble upon something interesting. There is only so much exploration you can do sitting still.

Have a super night and a super weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Uncategorized

The weather sure has been beautiful over the last couple of months, that is unless you were hoping for a lot of rainfall. We had one weekend (2 weeks ago) that was cloudy, cool, and damp, otherwise most weekends were nice. Unfortunately, this has led to an expanding drought across the state . Check out the Midwest Drought Monitor here. A moderate drought is now indicated for nearly 70% of the state. Sure, the growing season is over, but the lack of rain still affects water resources. Lake and river levels will go down. We do have some rain in the forecast but it doesn’t look like anything too heavy. I am calling for a 40% chance of showers tomorrow but amounts will likely be a tenth or two at best. Rain will again move through on Monday with a quarter inch or so possible. So our rain total for the month of September might reach 1.5 inches. Normal for September is 4.12 inches. I guess there is always hope for October. Last year in October we had 4.63 inches of rain.

So it looks like nice warm weather today with highs near 80. Even with a few clouds and intermittent light showers tomorrow, high temps should still reach the low 70s. Sunday should be a pleasant Fall day with high temps in the mid to upper 60s. It is next week that we could end up with some much cooler weather. By Tuesday, high temps might only reach the mid 50s. Cooler temps around 60 will likely persist into late next week.

Not too much else today because I have to sub in on the evening shows tonight. I did find a couple of good nuggets. Porsche is building an electric sports car. I suppose they don’t want to fall too far behind Tesla. If electric cars are the future, then people will certainly want to buy electric sports cars as well.

Also, Europeans have broken a solar photovoltaic efficiency record at slightly over 39%. This is not as high a the North American record but is none-the-less great news.

Have a great weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

Here is a little more evidence that the trees are turning color a little early this year. These viewer photographs were taken as far back as September 20th and were showing color in the 25 to 50% range (in my estimation). That means much of the northwoods will be over 50% this weekend and probably near the peak next weekend.The first picture was taken by Denise Larson of Wisconsin Rapids and shows some nice color at the Eau Claire Dells, the 2nd picture was taken by Kelly in Arpin. The 3rd picture is from Bass Lake in Price county and was taken by Doug Urban. The weather will be pretty nice for getting out and viewing the Fall colors, especially today and tomorrow, but also on Sunday. It will be cooler on Sunday – in the 60s – but it should still be nice with partly sunny skies. Saturday is the day that some of your outdoor plans might be interrupted by scattered showers or thunderstorms. Right now I am calling for a 40% chance of rain. Another storm developing in the upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday could bring scattered showers once again as well as cooler temps.

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) News:

The most interesting story of the week is how the solar wind is at a 50 year low. You might remember that the solar wind made it into the AGW conversation during the last couple of years when Vitaliy Rusov (a Ukrainian scientist) claimed most of the warming in the last hundred years could be blamed on the interactions between the solar wind and cosmic radiation. He claimed that when the solar wind is high, it blocks cosmic rays from hitting the earth and we end up with less cloudcover (which makes thing warmer). Thus, when the solar wind is low, there is more cosmic radiation hitting the planet and more clouds leading to cooler temps. Let us just say the Rusov was severely (and unprofessionally) ridiculed by the mainstream AGW crowd, but perhaps there is some effect from the solar wind. That might explain why the global climate models (GCMs) have been consistently forecasting temperatures too warm for the last 10 to 15 years. The average temperature of the planet has not gone up for 10 years. If the solar wind/cosmic ray theory has some merit then we will probably not see much warming over the next couple of years. It will be interesting to see.

Even though the temperature has not gone up for 10 years, you will still get headlines saying "don’t worry, next year will be hot". Here is such an article warning the people of Los Angeles they will soon be baking, even though last summer was cooler than normal and the temperature in the L.A. basin has been on a general downward trend since 1980! I will give the analysis credit for placing most of the blame on the heat island effect. If you have ever been to L.A you will definitely notice the millions of miles and square acreage of concrete and asphalt. This stuff absorbs a lot of heat. If there was a way to make the roads, parking lots, and buildings less heat retentive, then major heat waves would happen less often. I was thinking of adding "L.A. will be hotter" to the AGW list but setting that precedent – listing every city that is predicted to get hotter because of AGW – would just cause it to spiral way out of control. It wouldn’t fit in one blog post.

Don’t worry, there are some things to add to the big list of bad things that will happen because of AGW. This warning about problems with sea coral will not make the list because it is already there, but it is good to read again as it mentions the other problem outside of warming – which is acidification of the oceans.

Here is one that I read last year but it appeared prior to the list so it didn’t make it on. Fall foliage will be duller. The leaves will not be as bright because of warmer temperatures. Judging by my own experience, I cannot say for sure if the colors are duller nowadays than when I was a kid. If I think about it for a second, it seems like it is true, but when I think about it longer, it just seems like my childhood memories are more vivid. Comparing pictures, which would be slightly more objective, I can’t find a definite trend.

Here is the most unexpected addition to the list: The weather will become harder to predict. The story’s focus is on more wild weather for the southern U.S. but tucked within, is the Purdue University researchers comment that the weather will become harder to predict. I wonder if that means the GCMs will be worthless in coming years. I doubt. Does this means our better weather models and larger computer resources will not do anything to help predict the weather better in the future. I doubt it. I am unsure how someone assume less predictable weather in the future. Anyway, it makes it on the big list of bad things the will occur (or have occurred) because of AGW:

(less bright Fall foliage, the weather will be harder to predict, large animal species could go extinct, more cool weather trees will die, power blackouts, more flooded subways, Mountain snowmelt will occur up to 2 months earlier, more bee colony collapse disorder and other multiple infectious disease outbreaks, Caribou populations will decline, 1 in 8 bird species could go extinct – including long distance migratory song birds, eucalyptus leaves will become less nutritious and Koala bears will die, the 2008 tropical storm disaster in Myanmar, Tropical bugs will not reproduce, toxic chemicals will pour out of glaciers, Narwhals will go extinct, more deadly algae blooms, more poverty, a massive increase in volcanic activity, new disease outbreaks from previously frozen corpses, irreversible water circulation alteration in Lake Tahoe, dramatically decreased rice production, fewer flowers in the Rocky Mountains, the Butterfly fish will starve, transportation system will be ruined, air pollution related deaths will increase, tropical fish could go deaf, more “ocean deserts”, more tundra wildfires, collapsing oceanic food webs, sharks devastating Antarctic sea life, the drying up of Lake Mead by 2021, plant-devouring insect invasions, poor food quality, increased human mortality, more solastalgia/mental illness, more wars, the past 1993 conflict in Somalia, more intense heat waves, more heat deaths, polar bears starving, Isle Royale Moose dying, Walruses dying, Penguins starving (including King penguins), Australian bats dying, more hurricanes, less hurricanes, more intense and bigger hurricanes, a longer hurricane season, more stormy weather, rising oceans, more acidic oceans, California wildfires, more droughts, more floods, future disastrous declines in food production, coral reefs (hard and soft) dying, enormous extinctions of plant and animal species, massive loss of fish in the Bering Sea, the earth literally being torn apart, Amazon deforestation, a bigger ozone hole, a smaller ozone hole, less fresh water, more obesity, more hunger, more asthma, more allergies, more infectious disease, more kidney stones…more to come)

Have a fun Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

Every year, we usually get one of these hybrid storms that really creates a category of its own.  A strong area of low pressure is currently building off the Atlantic coast.  This area of low pressure is expected to strengthen to tropical storm force strength tomorrow, with winds over 35 miles per hour.  Kyle would be next on the list for Atlantic named storms.  Here’s the kink, Kyle would lack certain characteristics that would classify him to become a tropical storm.  So a couple of years ago(not exactly sure when) the big guns at the National Hurricane Center started naming these storm under the category "Sub-Tropical".  Sub-Tropical cyclones land right in between tropical and extra-tropical storms.  Tropical, of course, meaning Tropical Storms and Hurricanes.  Extra-Tropical storms refer to your everyday low pressure systems that effect our daily weather.

Here is the Satellite imagery of possible Kyle…

Notice the disorganization…

The best short explanation I can give on the difference between an extra tropical cyclone and subtropical cyclone… Warm waters allow the center of the low to develop a warm core.  A warm core is essential for tropical development, yet a subtropical storm still lacks other elements.  If this kind of thing interests you…here is a more in depth explanation.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

Yesterday I discussed some far-out futuristic type technology. Some of the stuff is hard to wrap your head around, but it was nothing compared to today. Today I have a couple of related articles that take the leap from science into philosophy – from observation to speculation. First up, astronomers have a found some large pieces of the universe – galactic super clusters – moving in directions and at speeds that are incompatible with known gravitational forces and the big bang theory (disclosure – I have never been a big fan of the big bang theory as a complete theory of the universe or as an explanation of observable motions within the universe). The astronomers have said:

"We found a very significant velocity, and furthermore, this velocity does not decrease with distance, as far as we can measure," Kashlinsky told SPACE.com. "The matter in the observable universe just cannot produce the flow we measure."

They speculate that there could be other mass "out there" – outside our universe – that could be influencing matter within our universe. This of course opens up a whole can of worms, not only semantically but philosophically. On the semantic side of things, doesn’t the word "universe", define everything that is. If there is something outside our universe then our universe is really only a small part of something else. So if the term "universe" is supposed to describe everything that is, then we should rename the part that we live in – maybe we could call it our "observable universe" or "neighborhood of matter". Some people have suggested the term "multiverse" for everything that is while leaving "universe" to describe our little home. Whatever name you think would work (feel free to send in suggestions) it opens the door to the oldest philosophical questions in the book – how did we get here? – why do we exist?

Some top scientists broached this subject in a recent conference convened to discuss what happened before the big bang. When thinking about the nature of the universe you inevitably come down to 2 possibilities. Either; 1. everything came to be at one instant and will come to an end sometime in the future. There was nothing before and there will be nothing after; or 2. Everything has always existed. There was no beginning and there will be no end. Many religions of the world favor #2. Even Christianity falls into the #2 category because it is stated that God has always existed and always will. Either option is difficult to grasp if you really meditate on the subject and I am unsure if there is a reason to favor either one although I lean toward #2. The scientists in the article suspect that our universe could be part of a cycle where repetitive big bangs occur and create new universes over and over. This is the very strange part – if the universe is cyclical and #2 is the correct way to answer the deep philosophical questions, then it means that everything that is happening today has happened at some time in the past and will happen again in the future, in fact, it has happened many times. There was some time in the infinite life of the universe (or multiverse) when there was a fellow who looked identical to me, typing on a Dell computer, in a weather office, with a sore throat, on a Wednesday, speculating about the origins of the universe.

This reality typically bothers people. Hey, it doesn’t look like we are anything all that special. To me, what matters is that this time around everything turns out as pleasant as possible, with the least amount of suffering. If I stopped caring about what happened during this particular universal cycle, then "the guy typing in the office having a nice life" scenario might turn into the "guy gets killed in disaster" scenario.

Sorry if that tangent has ruined your focus for the day. How about we return to the weather. It looks as if the summer-like conditions will remain for 3 more days – today, tomorrow, and Friday. We should have plenty of sunshine with high temps in the mid 70s today and tomorrow and near 80 on Friday. A strong cold front will move through Northcentral Wisconsin on Saturday and bring an end to the summer-like warmth – perhaps for the rest of the year. Don’t worry, there will be plenty of nice Fall days but it will be flannel weather instead of shorts weather. High temps should be near 70 on Saturday with a 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms. Some sunshine will be back out on Sunday but the mercury will only reach the low to mid 60s. On Monday and Tuesday of next week, high temps will only be in the 50s.

Energy News:

Chrysler has announced plans to introduce a line of electric vehicles. The first model should be available by the end of 2010 (sound familiar?). This is good news for all of you who hope to buy electric in the future. The more competition there is in the marketplace the more the cost will come down for consumers. Economies of scale will come into play. I am happy to see this from the perspective of future alternatives. As you know, I have come down on the side of electric vehicles as the best option for future transportation. It is not that the alternatives (biofuel, compressed air, hydrogen, natural gas, etc…) are bad, just that electric is superior based on the infrastructure that already exists.

If you are worried about recent reports of declining oil production, there is hope on that front as well. Engineers have come up with a new way to recover oil from shale. Also, there is more oil in the arctic than originally estimated. If oil production does decline, at least solar power is expected to increase dramatically by 2012. Some experts expect an increase from 6.5 gigawatts at the beginning of this year to 28.3 gigawatts by 2012. If neither pan out you could always buy your own bio-diesel home brew kit.

Lastly, some viewer picture of Fall color have been trickling in as it seems the trees are turning faster this year due to the drought. Here is a nice shot of a bright tree in Marshfield, taken by Donna Zygarlicke. Have a nice Wednesday. Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

I haven’t been able to get to some interesting news in recent days because I have been a bit busy and there have been other more pressing headlines. The interesting news is in weather instrumentation. I don’t get to cover this too often because the pace of new developments is a little slower than in other areas. We have some very good satellites, computers, and radars already in operation, so there is not huge pressure for advancements. Most of the advances come in software. First up is what has been called 3D Lidar. The Swiss scientists and engineers who developed the device hope that it will replace the weather balloon. LIDAR is similar to radar except that it uses light instead of radio waves to sense the atmosphere. It would be a nice advancement if we could replace weather balloons. The balloons have been stalwarts of weather sensing and forecasting for many decades but they are rather expensive. Weather balloons and their instruments are launched twice a day at 800 different locations around the world. Factoring in equipment and personnel costs, the price of operating the network most likely exceeds $100 million a year. The LIDAR concept has promise but I am unaware of how the LIDAR might sense atmospheric pressure. I can see how it could sense temperature, humidity, wind direction, and wind speed, but not air pressure. I’ll have to do more reading.

Even more speculative and probably a ways off in the future is the Quantum Radar. The article mentions x-ray machines and night vision goggles as potential applications for quantum illumination, but radar systems could benefit as well. The new sensing system could use quantum entanglement to reduce the power requirements by a factor of a million. This would bring the cost of operating radars down significantly. I also wonder if this could be used for other applications such as broadcasting, wireless Internet, or cell phones. If you want to know more about quantum entanglement you’ll have to go searching on your own. It is way to complicated (and strange) for me to attempt it here. Still, this is very speculative, and getting it to work will require quite a bit of engineering skill. Before leaving the speculative science discussion, how about a couple far-out developments that don’t have any immediate weather applications but are cool none-the-less. Acoustic cloaking and visual cloaking. I remember seeing this type of stuff in science fiction shows such as Star Trek and thinking I would never see it in my lifetime. Now it is getting closer.

Long term weather forecasting is also very speculative, but it is interesting to view the latest attempts, as we usually do this time of the month. The CPC has released its newest monthly projections. The first image is the October temperature projection and the second is the October precipitation projection. As you can see, the models have not picked up on any significant trends. The temp and precip projections both say "EC" for our part of the country, meaning the model is giving us "equal chances" of being above or below normal in temperature of precipitation. If you go to the CPC page you can click through the rest of the Fall and Winter months. Precipitation is "EC" all the way through the winter. The chance of above normal temps goes up significantly from November all the way through March. So the computer models are projecting a higher chance of a warm winter than a cool winter.

The weather will certainly be warm for the rest of this week. High temps will be near 80 today and again on Friday. On Wednesday and Thursday it will be cooler – in the low to mid 70s – but that is still well above normal for this time of year. The next cooldown is slated for Sunday and early next week when the mercury might only top out around 60 degrees. As far as rain goes, for the first time in the last 9 days, we will have a decent chance of rain  – tonight. I am calling for a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, it will not be too heavy. For those areas that do receive the rainfall, it could be over a quarter inch but most areas will have less. Another chance of rain will develop on Saturday as a stronger cold front moves through Northcentral Wisconsin.

Have a terrific Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Uncategorized