Weekend Warm Up!!

Hello Heat wave! It was absolutely gorgeous day outside.  Temperatures rose to the mid 30′s for most of us even some 40′s were reported.  I went out and hit the slopes early this morning and for the first time I was not cold.  I hope you were able to get out and enjoy the temperatures because they will not be lasting long, only 24 hours longer… Take a look at temperatures at 5pm today! It almost felt like spring….One of the reasons we were warm was the winds coming out of the southwest.  If you look at the image below a surface plot you can see a few weather related observations.

 First look at the line, it points in the direction the winds are coming from.  The barbs on the end help us to see how strong the winds are where as the G# tells us the gusts. 

The number in red is the actual temperature

The number in green is the dewpoint it tells us the moisture in the air

The 3 letter series or number is the indetifier of the station

The circle and color of the circle gives us the cloud cover and rating for flying-IFR, or VFR

Lastly if there is a symbol between the numbers we can identify what type of precip is falling. 

Tomorrow highs will be fairly similar to today minus a few degrees.  Monday is when the chill will be in the air as highs only get into the mid teens.  A weak disturbance will cause a chance of light snow Sunday night into Monday.

Have a great night! Enjoy the warm temps! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Uncategorized

This post was written by kconnolly on January 31, 2009

Info on “The Thaw”,The Big Game Weather Facts, Oil=Fuel

Another cold one….will it ever warm up?  Yes it will! This weekend temperatures will finally get close to 30 across the area.  Only two more days and we may still not hit a thaw though the entire month of January!  So if you think it has been bitterly cold, well you are not imagining things, it has been.

Looking back into history  the question I have been wondering was ’Have we ever not have a January thaw?”.  I found the information I have been looking for today.  There has been seven years in recorded history where we went an entire month with out getting 32 degrees or greater.  Those years were 1994, 1982, 1978, 1979, 1971, 1945, 1940.   The last one, 1994, the highest it made it to was 30 on the 1st of the month.  From the 13th to the 21st of that year the low dropped to 20 below or colder each night.  And during those days the high never made it above 0.  So it has been 15 years since the last time a January thaw has not happened!  

Despite the cold I was out trying to get my puppy some exercise yesterday.  I was surprised how crunchy the snow has become but considering we saw almost 30 more inches in December compared to January I don’t know why I should have been! In the forecast there is not any major storms to help us get a fresh few inches in the near future.  Very minor chances will occur from Saturday to Monday but should be nothing more than what we saw yesterday.    

I came across a few article I wanted to share this morning.  First, this is a huge weekend for any football fan, Superbowl Sunday!  I was looking through this article called 21 things you didn’t know about the Big Game.  I thought I would share it.  They contrast and compare a lot of Super Bowl facts with the weather and how it has helped or not helped certain teams.  You can check it out at http://www.weather.com/newscenter/specialtopics/slideshows/slideshow-biggestgame21.html?from=Forecast_Earth

Another interesting article is how college students are using oil to try and make bio diesel.  It is amazing how creative and smart kids are and how especially they are trying to keep the world we live in clean for generations.  I was surprised to see how many colleges are catching on to this trend and making the fuel to run items such as lawn mowers, vehicles and construction equipment on campuses.  That article is at http://climate.weather.com/articles/collegebiofuel012201.html?from=news_fe

I hope you all enjoy the warm weather heading our way!  I have a few ideas for blogging this weekend…one about the wildest weather cities and about a big winter storm that may bring some major problems to the east coast on Monday.  Stay tuned!

Have a great Friday! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Uncategorized

This post was written by kconnolly on January 30, 2009

A Little of Everything

This morning I was driving into work and was actually happy to see a little snow falling.  It has been almost a week since we have seen any activity and the fresh snow looked clean compared to the hardened dirty snow!

Over the past two days we have really lucked out.  Pretty much the entire country has been dealing with a crazy winter storm that has immoblized much of the Midwest and Northeast.

Over a million people are in darkness this morning. 

The hardest hit states were Kentucky and Arkansas.  Right now they are estimation 1.31 million homes and business are living in the darkness and some estimates say that it could be the middle of February before power is restord! 

In Indiana there are 89,000 people without power.  Over 3/4 of an inch of ice on power lines cause them to crumble over. 

23 deaths are also being blamed on the storm. 

Here is just one picture of the storm.

To see more check out  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28873371/

This weekend we should finally get temperatures above average!  I can sure say I am ready for it to be a little warmer.  Right now I am forecasting highs in the upper 20′s.  I am really interested to see if we stay below the freezing mark.  That would mean an entire month with no temp above 30.  Right now the highest we have warmed to was 27. 

Groundhogs Day is only 5 days away and I sure hope that he doesn’t see his shadow!

Last but not least! The big game is this weekend in my home state of Florida.  The forecast looks very pleasant with temps in the lower 60′s to upper 50′s.  The warmest high temperature for a Super Bowl was 82 degrees (1973, 2003) and the coldest high temperature for a non-dome game was 49 degrees (1985).

Have a great day! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Winter Weather

This post was written by kconnolly on January 29, 2009

Big Snow Misses Us

Over the last couple of days, a major winter storm missed us completely to the south.  Many Locations from Arkansas to New England have received over a foot of new snow.  This was a very large storm.  At one point snow stretched from Western Texas to New York City.

For snow lovers out there, here is a link for snow analysis.  This is a great web page analysing snow depth, past or present snowfall, melting rates…etc. 

For us, tonight we could see a dusting of snow from an Alberta Clipper.  At this point, the system seems to be moisture starved.  Maybe an isolated inch total will be possible in the Northwoods overnight.  Even though January has been cold, we have not seen a lot of snow.  With a polar high consistently in place our weather has been dry.  With a huge ridge in the jet stream to the west, most of our storms dropped down through Canada; therefore laking moisture.  December was a record setting month for snowfall, so far this January we have only seen just over 7 inches of snow.

Anyone Sick of the Cold Yet???  My hand is raised!!!!

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

This post was written by bniznansky on January 28, 2009

Cure Worse than the Disease? (Part 2)

If I had a dollar for every headline over the last 20 years that claimed the environment was doomed because of (anthropogenic) global warming, I would be quite rich by now. Considering the non-stop bombardment, you would think obvious signs of a climate and environment meltdown would already be present. The predictions have come and gone without much of it coming true. The global temperatures have risen but as much as forecast. The seas have not risen as much as forecast. Mass starvation and destruction have not occurred. There have been disruptions in some ecosystems but are these something way out of the ordinary – something the planet has not witnessed during past climate swings? There is ample evidence that the arctic was very close to ice free as recent as a couple thousand years ago – yet we still have polar bears. They seemed to have somehow survived. Where is this going? What is the main point here? Are we to believe all of the dire consequences that have been predicted? If we do, then quick and decisive action is needed. Forget about the economy and human life in general – the entire planet is about to be destroyed! (if you read the blog often you know this is not an exaggeration, one media headline in 2007 actually claimed the earth was literally being torn apart by global warming).

The apocalypse is a common theme, appearing in sacred texts like the bible and in contemporary literature such as “The Population Bomb”. People have always been predicting the end of the world. Thankfully, with the advent of writing we have a record of many of these predictions. One of the most famous was Thomas Malthus who first predicted widespread famine and death because human population growth was outstripping its ability to produce food. It didn’t happen. In “The Population Bomb” by Paul Ehrlich (written in 1968) famously predicted that by the early 1980s, the U.S. population would be less than 25 million and most of those left would be starving. Here is an exact quote:

“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate…”

Well, the population went on to over 7 billion and most of those are fed well, with starvation occurring mostly due to political reasons. In the U.S. it is more likely that people will be obese than starvation thin. On the subject of global warming there could be an entire book written on extreme rhetoric and predictions. I would do it myself if I had the time. Just this week we have “Human Emissions Could Bring Irreversible Climate Chaos!“, The Oceans Will Be Dead For 100,000 Years!, and “the number of people remaining at the end of the century will probably be a billion or less.” The final pronouncement came from a recent Newscientist interview with James Lovelock. If anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is going to cause over 6 billion people to die it is going to be a very bad time to be alive. To put it less eloquently – things are going to get real crappy real soon. Six billion people do not disappear without turmoil, wars, savagery and extreme suffering. Again, if this prediction is true, then we should stop at nothing to end all fossil fuel use tomorrow. Check that, today. Every second, every minute, every hour that passes without action is sowing our imminent demise. If this prediction follows that of Malthus and Ehrlich and is not even remotely close to being true, then perhaps a more measured approach would serve humanity much better.

As you know, I am a huge supporter of alternative energy, but I am also cogniscant of how much our society relies on fossil fuels. Previously I detailed a list of of current restrictions and potential problems concering our energy production:

  1. The EPA has blocked any new coal plants from being built in the U.S.
  2. Off shore drilling (and other areas) is still essentially off-limits.
  3. No new nuclear power plants have been built in the last 3 decades.
  4. No new oil refineries have been built in the last 3 decades.
  5. OPEC is cutting oil production
  6. U.S. infrastructure (pipelines, roads, transmission lines) is in a state of disrepair.
  7. Peak oil is still a possibility.
  8. Oil sand development in Canada is facing environmental concerns.
  9. New carbon taxes and treaties are likely in 2009.
  10. A recent speculative bubble in alternative energy could burst.
  11. Terrorist attacks could yet cause major supply disruptions.

Now we learn that government officials are considering an AGW tax on cows and other farm animals. In a somewhat related issue California farmers will be growing dramatically fewer vegetables this year because of dry weather and an effort to protect the delta smelt, a threatened fish species. Both of these actions, in the name of preventing part of the “environmental Armageddon” that is predicted to happen very soon, will have a negative affect on the food supply. Commodities might become scarce and expensive. The new administration is contemplating new regulations and international treaties as well – measures that will increase the price of fossil fuels. I am getting a bit worried that going full steam ahead in the race to reduce the “environmentally evil” carbon emissions we will put most of human society in a precarious position, on the edge of (or plunging quickly into) food and energy shortages.

I am no neophyte. Even though I rally for the cause of freedom, I know new regulations, taxes, laws, and prohibitions are inevitable. I am just imploring the current political class to take their foot off the regulatory gas and make sure alternative energy sources are in place before removing fossil fuels completely from the equation. If we are not careful, the predictions of food shortages and mass starvation could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

(P.S. I’ll be back next Monday, will be on vacation for the next two days)

Posted under AGW

This post was written by jloew on January 28, 2009

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Awesome Visible Satellite Image

Visible Satellites can provide some of the coolest images.  Along with clouds, Visible Satellites can pick up snow cover, ice, and in this case even the scared path still left from the June 7th, 2007 EF-3 White Lake tornado.  This image is provided by the N.W.S. in Green Bay.  For a larger image…click here..

First check out the lake effect clouds over Lake Michigan, and the frozen ice along the shoreline.  The entire area has a healthy snow cover.  Green Bay and Lake Winnebago are completely frozen over.  And finally, the over 30 mile tornado path through dense woods.

Come springtime, I’ll watch the satellite loops everyday, looking for large chunks of ice to break off in Green Bay and float into Lake Michigan.  When you loop the satellite you can actually watch this happen come March and April!!

Thanks N.W.S. for this great pic!!!

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

This post was written by jloew on January 27, 2009

Cold Tuesday

Just enough time to say hi this morning. I have a school presentation to get to. I will do my best tomorrow to complete part 2 of the series I started on Monday.

For today, here is something random and interesting I found – The Seasteading Institute had its first conference. I met the head of Seasteading (Patri Friedman) at a recent conference. Nice fellow. Nice idea. Sign me up for my own nation.

Posted under Uncategorized

This post was written by jloew on January 27, 2009

Non-Stop Cold..

BrianNiznansky What's new, the cold continues!!  Today will be the 20th day out of the 26 days of January which we have had temperatures dip below zero.  Given the current forecast, when the month is over with we will likely have a top 15 coldest January on Record.  Another thing to note, the temperature will not reach above freezing (32F) one time the entire month.  As of today, temperatures are running 6.5 degrees colder than the January average.  I think the cold is getting old fast for most, and believe me I feel your pain.  I am a fan of winter, but not a fan of endless bitter cold.

On a completely opposite note…According to N.O.A.A., the year of 2008 was globally the 8th warmest year on record dating back to 1880.  Where was our heat???

There are signs of warmer times ahead…

Gfsx_850_10d

The GFSX computer Model is showing a big warm up by next Wednesday.  On this day the model shows strong warm air advection from the southwest.  This push of warm air could rise temperatures above freezing for the first time in over a month.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

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This post was written by bniznansky on January 26, 2009

A month without one temp above 32?!

Kristen Its another cold one out there! We just can't seem to get warm.  I want to say thank you too Thomas Jefferson Elementary for letting me come speak at family night.  I had a great time and throughly enjoyed meeting everyone and watching there dance team dance!

While I was there someone asked me if we have even had a month where we didn't make it past freezing.  I looked at the records when I came back and since 1996 ( the records we have here in the office) every month we have made it above 32!  I am going to have to do some research to see how far back or if it has ever happened!  What a good question.  As always if you ever have questions send them our way.

Looking at the week ahead…. a very quiet start until Thursday where we can get a chance for snow in here.  The weekend brings another chance with some more normal temps in the mid 20's.  We will have to see how warm we can get and if anyone can break the 30 mark!

Again thanks to Thomas Jefferson Elementary!

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Uncategorized

This post was written by bniznansky on January 26, 2009

Cure Worse than the Disease? (Part 1)

Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is the top environmental issue in contemporary society. To say that almost complete destruction of the earth's ecosystem is a predicted near-term outcome of AGW is not an exaggeration. I know it sounds radical, so I have kept track of many specific predictions since November of 2007 in order to present it all in one package. It is the "big list" of bad things that will be (or have been) caused by AGW. Today I have a couple stories but no update to the list because these are repeats. Already on the list is "devastation of the world's forests", so this study indicating a higher death rate of trees in U.S. forests will not make the list. It is just too redundant. Likewise, bigger ocean dead zones because of lack of oxygen, is already on the list as "more ocean deserts". So here is the current list:

Cocoa production could decline, too many males in some fish and reptile species, Reindeer could become endangered, bigger waves along the Oregon coast, crabgrass will take over your lawn, migratory fish populations will decline, jumbo squid will move slower and starve, ski areas will go out of business, an increase in tick-borne disease epidemics, soil will become less fertile, global forests (including cool weather trees) will be devastated, tiger attacks on humans will increase, tropical and mountain animal species will go extinct, a dirty dozen of diseases will spread, less bright Fall foliage, the weather will be harder to predict, large animal species could go extinct, power blackouts, more flooded subways, Mountain snowmelt will occur up to 2 months earlier, more bee colony collapse disorder and other multiple infectious disease outbreaks, 1 in 8 bird species could go extinct – including long distance migratory song birds, eucalyptus leaves will become less nutritious and Koala bears will die, the 2008 tropical storm disaster in Myanmar, Tropical bugs will not reproduce, toxic chemicals will pour out of glaciers, more deadly algae blooms, more poverty, a massive increase in volcanic activity, new disease outbreaks from previously frozen corpses, irreversible water circulation alteration in Lake Tahoe, dramatically decreased rice production, fewer flowers in the Rocky Mountains, transportation system will be ruined, air pollution related deaths will increase, tropical fish could go deaf, more “ocean deserts”, more tundra wildfires, collapsing oceanic food webs, sharks devastating Antarctic sea life, the drying up of Lake Mead by 2021, plant-devouring insect invasions, poor food quality, increased human mortality, more solastalgia/mental illness, more wars, the past 1993 conflict in Somalia, more intense heat waves, more heat deaths, more hurricanes, less hurricanes, more intense and bigger hurricanes, a longer hurricane season, more stormy and severe weather, rising oceans, more acidic oceans, California wildfires, more droughts, more floods, future disastrous declines in food production, coral reefs (hard and soft) bleaching and dying, enormous extinctions of plant and animal species (including – Kangaroos, Caribou, Polar bears, Narwhals, Butterfly fish, Lemmings, Isle Royale Moose, Walruses, Penguins, King Penguins, Australian Bats), massive loss of fish in the Bering Sea, the earth literally being torn apart, Amazon deforestation, a bigger ozone hole, a smaller ozone hole, less fresh water, more obesity, more hunger, more asthma, more allergies, more infectious disease, more kidney stones…more to come)

Sorry about the small font, but the list has gotten so long that I have to shrink it so it doesn't take up several pages. Also, the list would be a lot better if everything was linked back to the original article. Sorry about that limitation. You can find the original articles by googling terms (like "tropical fish deaf global warming") or by going back through past blog posts where each item was linked. There is a record.

So if all of these things are guaranteed to happen then we are up a creek without a paddle. People are going to die in mass numbers very soon. Judging by the actions of most people, there seems to be some concern, but not the panic as you would expect from reading the list. Some people are panicked and they are in positions to do something ab0ut it (whether or not it is all true or not). As the rhetoric gets hotter more "solutions" are proposed – some of them very dramatic. There is a possibility of serious side effects from efforts to combat global warming. I have briefly mentioned these possibilties in the past and it is time to go over them again with a new administration in the U.S. and potential new legislation and regulations. My fear is that there will be an over-reach and people will suffer, not because of AGW but because of unintended consequences.

…to be continued on Wednesday

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

This post was written by jloew on January 26, 2009