Good Evening!

Last night was a chilly one for alot of us! I am going to provide some of the lows, some even  tied records!

Records-

Rhinelander broke their low at 29, the previous one was 32 set in 1945

Other cold temps….

Land O’ Lakes 25

Eagle River 29

Elton 30

Merrill 30

Gresham 30

Nekoosa 32

Whittlesey 30

Although yesterday was chilly it will not be near that cold tonight.  Temperatures will only drop into the mid 40′s to low 50′s.  The difference being the clouds and winds tonight with the system that will move through in the overnight hours.  Rain has continue to push in and will be the on going story through the night.

On a different note… tomorrow starts hurricane season!

Here are the numbers for what the National Hurricane Center has predicted

50% of a near normal season, 25% of a below normal season and 25% of an above normal season.

They are saying that this season has a greater uncertainty then previous years because of global weather patterns. 

There is a 70% chance of having 9 to 14 named storms of which 4 to 7 could become hurricanes including 1 to 3 major hurricanes which are Cat 3,4 and 5.

For more info you can click here.

I was really hoping to get some pics from Colorado up this weekend and show some different weather phenomena.  I haven’t been able to get them downloaded but will hopefully have a post of Tuesday morning showing some interesting weather I saw out there!

Have a great week!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Freeze, Spring, Tropics

Temperatures are going to drop tonight to very cold readings for this time of year.  Our average low is around 50 but we will be seeing reading about 20 degrees below that. Because of the cold we have warnings and advisories in place.

Freeze Warning- Ashland, Florence, Forrest, Iron, Oneida, Price, Vilas

This will be in effect from Midnight to 6 am.  Temperatures will drop into the upper 20′s to low 30′s.  Make sure to cover any sensitive plants or bring them inside as this could be a hard freeze and would kill crops or sensitive vegetation.

Frost Advisory- Langlade, Lincoln, Menominee

This again is in effect from Midnight to 6 am.  Temperatures will drop into the mid 30′s.  Frost will be likely in this area and could damage or kill sensitive plants.

Here are the records for the date, I do not think we will be breaking records but will be close. 

Rhinelander 29

Stevens Point 34

Marshfield 32

Antigo 29

Merrill 30

Wis Rapids 30

Wausau 31

Have a good night and bundle up or get the fire going!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

PS My dog was found yesterday after being missing for 5 days! It was so good to have him back safe and sound. Thanks to everyone who helped in the effort to find him.

Posted under Freeze, Severe Weather, Spring, Winter Weather

I have to head out to a school talk today about an hour away so I don’t have alot of time to blog.  I did want to mention we posted a video about my dog that went missing from a friends house while I was on vacation.  If anybody has any information I would truly appreciate it. I know I talk about him on air and on here alot. He is my buddy and I miss him dearly. 

I also wanted to say this weekend I will be posting some pictures and sharing some weather phenomena I saw while I was out West. With the different terrain I was able to take some pics of some weather features we may not see here!

Have a good Friday

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Uncategorized

We don’t have our first named storm in the Atlantic Ocean yet, but Tropical Depression One has developed in the warm gulf stream waters.  The storm has developed 4 days prior to the official start of the Atlantic Tropical Season.  It is possible the depression could strengthen into the first named tropical storm before entering colder waters.  The storm poses no threat to land.  You can track and keep tabs on the storm using wunderground.com and Jeff Master’s Blog.

N.O.A.A.  has also released it’s outlook for the 2009 Atlantic Season.  The N.O.A.A.  National Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an average hurricane Season.  They predict 9 to 14 named storms, with 4 to 7 becoming hurricanes.  Lastly, they predict one to three of the hurricanes will become major hurricanes.  Now remember this doesn’t necessarily mean each of these storms will actually make landfall.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under CPC Outlook, Tropics, Uncategorized

First off, I was wondering if anyone looked at the image from the Opportunity Rover that I pointed out yesterday . I thought the streak of light was interesting (see here). Maybe it is not all that interesting.

On the topic of space, here is another profile of a Lunar X-prize competitor: ARCA, from Romania. There are 17 official entrants thus far an from what I have seen, this one has the most unique plan. They will attempt to reach the moon by first launching a high altitude balloon to take their rocket to a high altitude, From there, the rocket will take off into earth orbit. Another fascinating part of their effort is that they plan to build a spherical moon lander/robot. I haven’t heard how they plan for locomotion but it would be interesting if they used internal adjustable weights. Good luck to the Romanians.

Private space consortia, such as the Lunar X-Prize competitors and the budding space tourist industries face more than technical hurdles when reaching for the stars. There is an enormous and complicated bureaucracy to navigate through first. Since the space race began as a militaristic cold war competition, many laws are still geared to prevent technology from escaping national borders. One particular law that is causing trouble is ITAR(International Traffic in Arms Regulations). Listen to this: when Bigelow Aersospace needed to launch one of their test inflatable habitats from Russia, they had to hire armed guards to protect the technology during the entire time it was outside of the U.S. They even had to pay 2 armed guards to watch over a table that was used to support some of their equipment… even when the table was empty (not supporting anything)! If civilian space flight is ever going to “take-off” a lot of old regulations will need to be rewritten.

Getting to space could be a bit easier with a space elevator. This topic garnered a lot of attention a couple years ago but then faded. Just recently a new space elevator design was proposedthat is more unique. It proposes to a rotating string set-up to propel objects up and into space. So far it only exists on paper, but the mathematics seem to add up, so maybe it is not too far off in the future.

Lake Baikal, ice circle

When in space, you never know what you will see. Astronauts aboard the ISS apparently spied two large circles in lake Baikal (Siberia). It is an interesting image with circles in the ice at both ends of the lake. I wonder if these are possibly the biggest circles ever seen in ice? In any case, scientists are befuddled as to how these formed. It most likely has to do with some melting due to upwelling of warm water from below. How about a more conspiratorial explanation? Maybe the Russians are testing big space lasers to melt ice. Ha – fun to speculate.

Lastly on the space angle. A winner for the new Mars Rover naming contest has been announced. The name will be Curiosity, which was suggested by Clara Ma, a 12 year-old from Kansas.

Back here at home we had a nice drought-busting rainfall over the last couple of days. The preliminary total here in Wausau was 2.51 inches. It is the greatest amount of steady rainfall I have seen since, since, since I can’t remember when. Our weather watcher Dick from Merrill checked in with a total of 4.0 inches. Most of our weather watchers reported between 1.5 and 2.5 inches. The lateast U.S. Drought Monitordoes not reflect the recent rainfall. We should see some improvement in the report next week. Other than a slight chance of light showers Friday night through Saturday morning, it looks like the next chance of significant rain will hold off until Sunday evening. Also, with temps remaining 2 to 5 degrees below normal all the way through the middle of next week, it looks like it will be a few more days before we have a winner in the Rib Mountain snowmelt contest.

Have a fine Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Science, Space

At one point a few days ago, the rain chances for Tuesday and Wednesday looked rather iffy and I was getting depressed about the thought of constantly spending time watering my gardens and plants. The nice steady rain of yesterday and today have brought a smile to my face, as mentioned yesterday. Ray commented (see comments section, and feel free to leave your own) that rainy weather often means cool weather. It is interesting that the last 2 years have been drier than normal with more sunny days than average, and yet temps have been a bit below normal during the last two summers. Can you imagine how cool our summers would have been if we had received normal or above normal rainfall? Speaking of cool weather, it looks like temps will average a couple degrees below normal through early next week with high temps generally in the 65 to 70 range.

The rain will continue for most of the area today. Some locations in central Wisconsin could pick up an inch or so. At the time of this writing Wausau had already picked up a half inch, Wisconsin Rapids had about 0.80 inches, and Stevens Point already measured about 1.30 inches. The only locations that will miss out on the steady rain will be the far north around highway 70. Park Falls, Butternut, Springstead, and Mercer will likely only receive some drizzle or sprinkles. The rain will taper off tonight and then the next chance of significant precipitation will be Sunday evening when some thunderstorms could develop. The rain is melting some of the snow on Rib Mountain but it still looks like it will last a couple more days – so no winners yet in the snowmelt contest.

Alternative Energy News:

This has been a hot topic as of late and I am definitely getting more behind “electrification” of the economy. Even though there are a lot of reasons to support electric transportation as the heir to liquid hydrocarbons, there is a big government-industrial complex that has built up around ethanol and hydrogen. Bio-fuels do have some uses but funding is drying up and some ethanol producers are starting to go bankrupt. Hydrogen fuel cells still have some momentum but the case for using hydrogen in transportation is a tough one. First and foremost and entire new infrastructure has to be built across the entire continent. It just isn’t feasible. Most of the distribution and manufacturing capability for electric transportation is already in place. In any case, hydrogen fuel cells could still find very important use in helping to develop clean energy. Wind and solar energy is intermittent. Fuel cells could be one of the best ways to store electricity from these sources during peak times and release that energy during down times. So here are some recent developments on the hydrogen front:

An interview with energy secretary Chu where he dismisses the case for hydrogen-based transportation (and also talks about nuclear power plants)

Material with record high surface area could store a lot more hydrogen.

New metal substance could split water into oxygen and hydrogen more efficiently.

In a somewhat related story, the city of Seattle has found that plug-in hybrids are not doing as well on fuel efficiencyas originally hoped. Their fleet is averaging 51 mpg. They expected to achieve nearly 100 mpg. The unexpected low efficiency has to do with “real world” driving situations. What works in the “lab” does not always work in the street. People might not plug them in as often as they should, or they might not drive with fuel efficiency in mind.

Also, a little article on what an electric car fleet mightlook like. You have probably seen many of the pictures before in this blog.

Lastly, Tesla is more likely to survive the economic downturn after Daimler bought a 10% stake in the company.

Space News:

Is anyone else amazed at how long the Rovers have lasted on Mars? They have been going over 5 years now. Some problems related to “wear and tear” have been cropping up, but both Rovers are still functional. Spirit’s latest trouble is getting stuck in sand. Mission controllers think it might have gotten stuck deep enough to actually bottom out. The “belly” of the rover might be resting on sand, which would be a tough situation to get out of. Engineers are busy working with an analogue rover here on earth trying to simulate the conditions on Mars. They hope to devise a method for Spirit to get moving again. Opportunity is not stuck, in fact it has just passed the 10 mile mark on its odometer. Even though it is moving, it still has more than a year to go before reaching its next target crater. One thing I think the Rover designers should think about with the next robots to travel to Mars is a “fast” mode. It shouldn’t take a year to travel a couple miles, especially when the rover is traveling through a flat desert like Opportunity is.

Every once in a while I take a look at the raw images of the rovers (see here), just to see how the landscape differs as they move to new areas of the planet. Here is one picture I viewed today.

Opportunity Navigation Camera Image

 Another nice shot of the desolation in the area called Meridiani Planum where Opportunity is exploring. The interesting part of the photograph is the little white streak in the upper left hand corner. (direct link to large image here) If this was a photo on earth you would immediately think it was a jet contrail. Or if it was night-time someone might suggest it was a meteorite (falling star). I am not sure what to make of it, since it is on Mars. My best guess is that it is an artifact of the camera lens. Maybe a glint of light or a reflection. I suppose a meteorite or asteroid cannot be ruled out. Interesting none-the-less.

In another exciting development, more testing of robotic underwater probes is occurring in Antarctica. Back in 2008 a prototype was tested right here in Wisconsin at lake Mendota during the middle of winter. Thes tests are occurring in preparation for a future trip to Jupiter’s moon Europa. Under the icy crust of Europa is a potential spot for life in the solar system.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Space

Yesterday I blogged about the lack of severe weather in the plains and how this so far has thrown a little kink in the Vortex 2 campaign.  The good news is that we also haven’t seen a whole lot of rough weather.  So far this spring we have had only a few days with a severe weather threat.  And its only been a couple storm cells on April 24, May 6, and May 13 that have produced hail in the area. 

On the other hand… we are entering peak severe season for Wisconsin.  More severe storms and tornadoes occur in the month of June than any other month.  To simply put it… during this time period we see the greatest combination of instability and clash of air masses.  With exception of June 7, 2007, we have had a couple quiet severe weather seasons.  Putting aside the science..I just have that feeling that we are due.  Let’s hope my guess is wrong.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

An interesting thing has happened over the last 6 years. I no longer get sad on a rainy day. Just the opposite – I am usually grinning from ear to ear – even when my outdoor activities are ruined. The reason is because rain has been so infrequent during the last 6 years. Now, everytime it rains, I see it as time for celebration. The only time I might get a bit depressed by rainy or cloudy weather is in the late Fall or late Winter after 3 or 4 days in a row. Of course, a nice sunny day makes me happy, but 6, 7, or 8 in a row makes me nervous and anxious. I hate to see the lawns turn brown and the farmers/gardeners worry about their crops. It is a strange turn of events, to cheer an all-day rain, but after experiencing a significant period of drought in each of the last 6 years, perceptions are bound to change. Did you know this: If you add up all the missing precipitation (in Wausau) from the last 6 years it totals about 35 inches. That means we are averaging nearly 6 inches below normal every year since 2003. No wonder some wetlands, reservoirs, and wells are going dry. I certainly would not mind above normal precipitation this growing season – a.k.a. a “wet year”. I have been waiting for a wet year to improve the wild blackberry crop – which has been suffering. During the last couple of years I could hardly find enough blackberries for a pie. One drawback to wet weather that I know most people will complain about is bugs, particularly mosquitoes. We have been spoiled with very low numbers of mosquitoes over the last 6 years.

So today I am smiling. My apologies to anyone who had to work the holiday weekend and now has Tuesday and Wednesday off. So far in Wausau we have picked up about .70 inches of rain (through 9:30 am) and there is a possibility of another inch or so tonight. If we do end up with another inch or more tonight, amazingly, we will end up with above normal rainfall during the month of May. Up until today, we had been running about 1.5 inches below normal. Our weather watcher Marianne from Scandinavia noticed this turnaround and reminded me that it happened the same way in April – below normal precipitation for most of the month then a deluge at the end.

Periods of rain will continue into Wednesday morning then dry up during the afternoon. More sunshine on Thursday will warm temps back up into the 70s, making it the best day too get outside this week. The next chance of significant rain will be on Sunday. With the heavy rain today and perhaps more tonight, the snow left on Rib Mountain might melt a little quicker. I drove out there this morning to check it out (couldn’t use the sky cam because of the rain and fog). There are still 2 large patches of snow on the western slopes. If we get an inch of rain tonight, it will do a number on the remaining snow, but I still think the final melt is a few days away. I will definitely be making a trip to the slopes later this week for an up-close inspection.

Technology News:

I have been following the LED lighting story for a couple of years now and you probably remember a blog series I did entitled “A True Revolution in Lighting”, explaining the benefits of using this new lighting technology. I featured one company that was attempting to commercialize standard LED bulbs but failed (Polybrite). They could not produce the bulb at an affordable price, thus they sell (probably very few) bulbs online for $50 a piece. Yikes! Like everything, mass manufacturing and “economies of scale” are generally needed to bring down the price of an innovative or disruptive new technology. With LED lights, there have been many breakthroughs in recent months but this one might be more important: Obducat’s New Lithography System Provides Energy and Environmental Gains. Obducot has developed a fully automated lithography system that turns out LEDs. Perhaps this development will impact LED lighting applications at the bottom line – the most important considerations for consumers. Lighting uses up 10 to 20 percent of the world’s energy. LED lighting could easily cut that percentage in half.

In other news, another development in cloaking – yes cloaking, like in Star Trek cloaking. This time the cloaking was performed by manipulating an optical waveguideinstead of creating a new metamaterial. The waveguide method could cloak bigger objects (although still very tiny) and perform over a broader range of wavelengths.

And now for something completely different. Climatologists and Oceanographers are using some unique methods to keep track of and learn more about ocean currents. Tracking debris has turned up some valuable insights. Have you ever found some odd piece of junk washed up on the beach? If so you might be able to find out how far it has traveled and how long it was in the ocean. Kind-of like finding an unintentional ”message in a bottle”. Each piece of debris tells a story.

Have a fine Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Drought, Science

Since hitting the road May 10th, severe weather hasn’t quite cooperated with the timing of the largest Tornado study ever.  The Vortex 2 campaign has yet to intercept a tornado, but not from lack of effort.  Over the past couple weeks, severe weather has been minimal across tornado alley.  This of course is good news, but not necessarily for the over 100 scientists trying to collect data.  For more information on the progress of Vortex 2 or what its all about…check out previous blogs, Vortex2 webite, and this link to an on-board blogger.

Taking a look at the the S.P.C convective outlooks, it looks like things will remain quiet across the plains.  Long Range models set up a stationary front by next week.  This clash in air masses would likely pick things up.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Science, Severe Weather, Spring, Storms

No winners in the snowmelt contest yet. The snow is getting down there but I think it will be a few more days before we have the official snowmelt and when we find out who will win the gift cards and car wash coupons from the R-Stores of Northcentral Wisconsin. It is getting harder to see the snow with our Corporate Cove Sky Cam view. I think I will have to walk up the slopes later this week to take a closer look. The snow might make it into June again. One thing that could help the snow along is rain and there is a chance for rain tomorrow. The unique thing about the rain tomorrow is that it is coming from a subtropical weather system moving in from the south. If the rain is heavy, it could really do a number on the snow. Since it is of a more tropical origin, the rain could be a few degrees warmer than it usually is this time of year. Will there be enough rain to wash it all away? I seriously doubt it. If there is over and inch of rain, it could be close. Right now I am setting the chance at 60 percent. We could use some widespread heavy rain, but I can’t guarantee everyone will get hit. If you don’t get rain on Tuesday or Tuesday night, it looks like you will be suffering through dry conditions at least until the upcoming weekend (or longer). Keep your fingers crossed for rain tomorrow.

I picked June 4th as the snowmelt date (a little earlier than normal) primarily because it looked like less snow was on the mountain but also because of AGW. With everyone hyping “global warming” nowadays, it has even rubbed off on me (even though the question of degree and soundness of theory are still in question). I figured it has to show up in something like the snowmelt date. Right? It hasn’t yet. Only one year did we have snow melting in May. To some, this might a reason to dismiss AGW theory altogether even though it really isn’t. However, there are a lot of open questions that should lead to greater discussion and research into AGW.

Last week I discussed in what ways I am a “small” skeptic on the AGW situation. I have always figured humans affect the climate to a small degree but that the natural effects are still larger (aside: I wouldn’t mind if humans did control the climate to make sure it was pleasant and remained in safe temperature ranges in the future). My critique revolves around the non-linear equations that the models are based on and the fossil fuel (energy) inputs. Others critique basic climate knowledge. It is incomplete. Some say woefully incomplete. I disagree with that sentiment, but there is room for improvement. Here are some recent articles that illuminate new climate knowledge that is being uncovered.

Northern and southern ocean links are strong during previous large climate swings.

Lead in the atmosphere might have caused some cooling in the 20th century.

Flood risk from melting ice is overestimated.

New study challenges what we know about cold water ocean circulations.

Volcanic activity might have had a very large effect on the past climate changes.

Forest fires might have a dramatic effecton climate. (aside: even ancients might have had an effect on climate by buring large tracts of forest)

New climate mechanism discovered that mighthave caused medieval warming.

Hurricanes might be feeding global warming. (aside: some have proposed space-based directed energy to manipulate hurricanes and make them less dangerous – very interesting)

Do gaps in climate knowledge mean that climate forecasts are useless? No. However, it does make me wonder a little how the principle modellers and the IPCC arrive at such high confidence forecasts (such as 90 to 95 percent certainty). Even if the confidence level was less (say 80 or 70 percent) that would still be enough to warrant some action.. I try to live more sustainably and encourage the adoption alternative energy. Remember, reduce, re-use, and recycle. Little efforts add up big over time.

Have a fine Memorial Day! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Fire