After about 5 months of no significant rain Florida got soaked this week by a disturbance in the gulf.  The disturbance finally made landfall this morning on the Florida and Alabama coast.  There has been some talk about whether or not this could have actually been our first tropical system of the season.  There were reports of tropical storm winds but at a height that is above elevations usually used to classify storms.  At Fort Morgan, winds were 44mph sustained, gusting to 52 mph.  At Dauphin Island, AL winds were 39 mph sustained, gusting to 48 mph.  A tropical storm has to have winds above 39 mph .  Since these were taken at higher elevations it is most likely that winds that at the surface were just shy of tropical storm.   The pressure of the storm was at 1003.9 millibars which was actually a millibar lower then last years first storm Arthur.  If the storm had spent a few more hours over water it is likely we would have been calling this storm Ana. 

None the less this storm packed quit a punch on Florida! It brought heavy rain for the entire week across the area, the heaviest on the east coast.  For a look at some totals you can click here.

Ormond Beach received a total of 27.06 inches this week.  This puts the the city at the wettest month on record since May of 1923.  Daytona Beach hit the second wettest with 20.06 inches, the wettest being 24.82 inches in Oct of 1924.  Most of the totals along the gulf averaged around 10 inches. 

A pic of the storm on Thursday

Memorial Day Weekend Weather….

Unfortunately the front today wanted to meander around a little longer then models anticipated. That meant that the sun came out in the north but most of the south stayed cloudy.  We are seeing the clouds push away now and high pressure from the north will continue to push south.  This high will stay in place til early on Monday when another system will move in the from southwest.  Tomorrow will be mostly sunny across the area with highs in the low 70′s.  Monday, with the system moving closer, more clouds should return but highs should still stay around average. Enjoy the sunshine before the rain on Tuesday.

Tonight we have a Frost Advisoryin effect for Lincoln, Langlade, Vilas, Oneida, Forest and Florence counties. This is in effect from 1am to 7 am.  If you have any sensitive plants make sure to cover them up!

Have a great holiday weekend! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Uncategorized

Before I get off on a tangent about drought, the holiday weekend forecast, or space news, I have to get to the promised update of the AGW list. As regular users know, the “Big List of Bad Things” is an attempt to keep track of all the dire predictions made by AGW theorists. I started it back in late 2007 because the predictions kept getting more sensational. I thought it would be a good exercise in keeping track of changing attitudes through the years. I stopped doing regular updates earlier this year when the predictions reached the level of the “death of nearly all life on earth”. Why do anymore updates when this predictions cover pretty much every bad thing that could happen. Still, I did notice some interesting predictions in the last couple of months and I will update them now. Again, this is a list of all the bad things predicted to occur (or have occurred) because of AGW:

New additions:

1. Sand dunes will get bigger
2. The Mediteranean sea will rise 2 feet
3. The Amazon rain forest will be more susceptible to fires
4. Sea level rise will be worse in New York city than other coastal areas
5. The Gulf Stream will shut down
6. Ice-dependant species in Antarctica will disappear
7. Tropical lizards will die
8. Coral reefs will dissolve (already on the list)
9. Wildfire hotspots will shift to new areas of the earth.
10. Pets will suffer
11. Ozone recovery will be uneven
12. Pinon Pine trees will die
13. Woody weeds will expand in Australia
14. River water levels will go down
15. Lyme disease could get worse
16. Seals will suffer because of increased mercury levels
17. Cicadas are coming out early
18. The Maldives will flood
19. Every aspect of human health will get worse
20. Coral death will displace 100 million people

Whew! So here is the entire list with the new additions. (A strikethrough is something that was once blamed on AGW but was later found to be caused by something else)

(bigger sand dunes, Mediterranean sea to rise 2 feet, the Amazon rain forest will be more susceptible to fires, sea level rise to be worse in New York City, the Maldives will flood, woody weeds will expand in Australia, 100 million people will be displaced because of problems with coral, the Gulf Stream could shut down, major rivers will lose more water, every aspect of human health will get worse, pinon pines trees will die, seals will be contaminated with mercury, ice-dependent life will disappear from the Antarctic peninsula, Ozone recovery will be uneven, wildfire hotspots will shift around the world, cicadas are coming out earlier, tropical lizards will die, pets will suffer, Lyme disease could get worse,the earth’s magnetic poles will shift, Bluetongue virus spreading and moving out of the tropics, the 2007-09 California drought, agriculture will cease in the state of California, Northern and southern Europe will get hotter, all earth’s seasons are arriving 2 days earlier, cocoa production could decline, too many males in some fish and reptile species, Reindeer could become endangered, bigger waves along the Oregon coast, crabgrass will take over your lawn, migratory fish populations will decline, jumbo squid will move slower and starve, ski areas will go out of business, an increase in tick-borne disease epidemics, soil will become less fertile, global forests (including cool weather trees) will be devastated, tiger attacks on humans will increase, tropical and mountain animal species will go extinct, a dirty dozen of diseases will spread, less bright Fall foliage, the weather will be harder to predict, large animal species could go extinct, power blackouts, more flooded subways, Mountain snowmelt will occur up to 2 months earlier, more bee colony collapse disorder and other multiple infectious disease outbreaks, 1 in 8 bird species could go extinct – including long distance migratory song birds, eucalyptus leaves will become less nutritious and Koala bears will die, the 2008 tropical storm disaster in Myanmar, Tropical bugs will not reproduce, toxic chemicals will pour out of glaciers, more deadly algae blooms, more poverty, a massive increase in volcanic activity, new disease outbreaks from previously frozen corpses, irreversible water circulation alteration in Lake Tahoe, dramatically decreased rice production, fewer flowers in the Rocky Mountains, transportation systems will be ruined, air pollution related deaths will increase, tropical fish could go deaf, more “ocean deserts”, more tundra wildfires, collapsing oceanic food webs, sharks devastating Antarctic sea life as well as general devastation of Antarctic sea life due to other predators and disruptions, the drying up of Lake Mead by 2021, plant-devouring insect invasions, poor food quality, increased human mortality, more solastalgia/mental illness, more wars, the past 1993 conflict in Somalia, more intense heat waves, more heat deaths, more hurricanes, less hurricanes, more intense and bigger hurricanes, a longer hurricane season, more stormy and severe weather – especially near the poles, rising oceans, more acidic oceans, California wildfires, more droughts, more floods, future disastrous declines in food production, coral reefs (hard and soft) bleaching, dissolving and dying, enormous extinctions of plant and animal species (including – Kangaroos, Caribou, Polar bears, Narwhals, Butterfly fish, Lemmings, Isle Royale Moose, Walruses, Penguins, King Penguins, Adélie Land King Penguins, Australian Bats), massive loss of fish in the Bering Sea, the earth literally being torn apart, Amazon deforestation, a bigger ozone hole, a smaller ozone hole, a slower recovery of ozone, less fresh water, more obesity, more hunger, more asthma, more allergies, more infectious disease, more kidney stones…more to come)

Again, the purpose of the list is to gather all the predictions in one place. Sometimes looking at something in total and getting a historical perspective can provide some new insights. Some of the predictions might contradict other predictions. If a group of predictions are coming true then we need adjust our conservation efforts and perhaps focus our energy in different ways. I thought I might be the only one keeping track of media headlines, but I was alerted to another website that does keep track of AGW headlines and “numbers”. I can’t vouch for the quality of the site, but just a quick browse gives me the impression that the authors are very skeptical of AGW. So keep that in mind. It is Numberwatch.

And now I realize another reason why I don’t continue the AGW list on a regular basis – it takes too long to update. I have a lot of comments on some of the new items, but not much time. I barely have time to talk about the US Drought Monitor Update. Things have gotten a little better in Wisconsin. The bad news is that the forecast for the next week or two is not very good for rainfall. There is a chance of light showers late tonight and perhaps a bit heavier rain on Tuesday of next week, otherwise things are pretty dry. The fire danger is still high. Be very careful grilling out or with starting campfires this weekend!

Have a good Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Drought

Yesterday high winds, very warm temperatures and dry airmass sparked fires across the our area.

 The National Weather Service in Green Bay had a neat image of one fire in the Ashwaubenon area.  This brush fire actually shut down part of Interstate 43 just to the northwest of Green Bay.

The plume of smoke was detected on the radar just after 5pm.  In the picture below the first shot was seen at 5:11 although you can not see on the image if you click on this link you can actually see the plume of smoke move northeast.  This is because the winds were very strong out of the southwest yesterday with sustained winds from 25-35mph.  The whole animation took about twenty minutes.

I also wanted to make a note about a comment on one of my blogs. I appologize for not  blogging about the cold temperatures on Saturday night.  Although forecasted lows should have been close to records they ended up all staying above records.  Most of us did drop below freezing but only a few citites dropped below 30.  Included would have been

Eagle River 24

Conover 25

Lk Tomahawk 26

City Point 26

Prentice 27 

Nekoosa 28

Merrill 29

Rhinelander 29

Although these were very chilly temperatures they were still a few degrees above the records.  Here are the record lows:

Rhinelander 23

Wis Rapids 26

Stevens Point 27

Marshfield 24

Antigo 25

Merrill 23

Quit a difference from the 60′s it stayed at last night!

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Fire, Uncategorized, Winter Weather

The latest CPC long range outlooks have been released and there isn’t too much write home about. No significant trends are indicated for our area of the country (Wisconsin) except for the upcoming winter.

June Temp Forecast

For the 3rd year in a row the CPC models are forecasting a significant chance of above normal temps from approximately December through March. Of course, as we all know, during the last two winters temps were well below normal and snowfall was above normal. We had periods of La Nina during the last two winters and that might have influenced things.

June-July-Aug. Forecast

Right now the ENSO index is neutral (neither La Nina or El Nino) and it should stay that way through the summer. Hard to say how it will change by this Fall and Winter. Just by eyeballing the historical ENSO episodes, it looks like the typical neutral period lasts between 1 to 2 years with the longest being a bit over 4 years. So it would not be unusual if we had neither El Nino or La Nina this winter.

Looking at the CPC long range outlooks and highlighting the poor forecast performance over the last two winters again brings me back to the AGW topic (and I promised I would continue the discussion today). Some people would naturally ask “how can we trust a computer model forecasting conditions 100 years from now when it can’t even get the trends correct looking only a couple months into the future?” It is a legitimate question and one that has been brought up many times in the past. The models that attempt a hundred year forecast and a 100 day forecast are a bit different but they do both suffer from the non-linear nature of the equations that are used. Many assumptions have to be built into the models before we can get any useful output. Also, trying to predict a general climate trend is somewhat easier than forecasting short term changes. The climate changes slowly. The average temperature of the earth has only gone up about 1 degree F over the last 100 years. In contrast, during a typical summer day, the temperature here in town will go up 25 degrees between daybreak and late afternoon. Speaking of climate models, this is no shortage of articles referencing forecasts of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Here is one calling the model a “gold standard” and assuring everyone that there is a 90 percent chance AGW will be worse than expected and possibly “much worse”. MIT researchers are forecasting a 90% chance of a temperature increase of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. They ran their computer model 400 different times with slightly different inputs, including inputs for human activity. It sure would be nice to know what inputs were used. Back in 2004, one of the IPCC working groups was expecting oil consumption by the world to rise well above 100 million barrels a day over the next couple decades. Oil use topped out at about 85 million barrels a day in 2007 and has been in decline recently. Discovering this made me a bit skeptical of the inputs into the climate models. The worst case scenarios/forecasts are always based on “business as usual”, assuming nothing (or very little) changes between now and 2100. We still drive cars. We still burn coal. We still use incandescent lights. We keep using more oil. We keeping burning more and more coal. I am sure most of you would say this is unlikely and I would agree with you. I suspect fossil fuel usage will increase over the short term (next decade) but then dramatically decline by the middle of the century – even WITHOUT draconian regulations or taxes. There are many new technological developments on the horizon that could speed the adoption of alternative energy source. Just in the last few days: New lithium-air battery could hold ten times the energy density of regular lithium batteries; If lithium-air batteries do not pan out, how about lithium sulphur batteries?; The Churchill Club projects battery development will continue to be hot over the next two years; In Japan, the world’s first battery switching station was revealed just last week – helping to move the more efficient electric car market closer to reality; Not only is our transportation becoming more efficient, our gadgets are as well – this new DSP computer chip could run up to 75 times more efficiently than current versions; Investment in solar energy production is growing even through the economic downturn – First Solar recently announced a new power plant in Australia; Skyline has jumped into the solar business with a solar concentrating set-up that could be much cheaper than existing models. NREL is investigating the use of inkjet printing methods to make cheaper solar cells; and lastly for today – by using micro inverters, Enphase could bring down the cost and up the efficiency of traditional silicon solar panels.

The MIT researchers in this study make the claim that things could be much worse due to feedback mechanisms that could develop – such as methane being released from the permafrost. This is another minor criticism I have in regards to many AGW discussions and articles. There are always feedback cycles to make things warmer, but no mention of any feedback cycle to make things cooler. It is as if temps can only move and accelerate in one direction – which isn’t true. Cold feedback cycles exist. It is often argued that the loss of ice at the poles would accelerate warming – which is logical. Would not gaining ice at the poles lead to a colder feedback cycle? It should, if the same logic applies.

Yikes. I ran out of time once again today and I didn’t get to the very exciting update to the AGW list. Will have to wait until tomorrow.

In the present weather, most of the holiday weekend is still looking good with high temps around 70. At this point there is only a slight chance of showers in the far southern part of the area on Friday and in most of the area Monday afternoon and evening.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, CPC Outlook, ENSO Update

We were close in a few locations, but it looks like we won’t break any record high temperatures today.  Strong southwest winds brought high temperatures in the middle to upper 80′s.  We were one degree away from tying a record here in Wausau.  It felt like someone blowing a blow dry in your face!!!  The wind topped at 45 mph in Wausau this afternoon.  On the way to work I noticed a couple large branches down in Weston.

Here are some of the High temperatures recorded today!

Stevens Point:  88  (91,1934)

Rhinelander:     87  (89,1994)

Wausau:            86  (87,1975)

Wisc. Rapids:    86  (95,1934)

Marshfield:       86  (90,1934)

Merrill:              84  (91,1934)

Antigo:             82  (88,1975)

To cool things off a bit..the N.W.S.  has posted the official area snowfall totals from last winter, many places with a top 20 snowy winter…thanks mostly to December(the snowiest month ever in Wausau).

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Heat, Spring

**Important update: A WIND ADVISORY has been issued for Lincoln, Langlade, Oneida, Vilas, Forest, and Florence counties effective until 7pm this evening. Winds from the south will be 25 to 35 mph with gusts over 40 at times.**

If you have a few extra minutes and you want to do something interesting and illuminating, put your name into a search engine. In Google, you can put your name in quotes to get more accurate results. Also, if you have a common name (like Mike Smith) then you might want to put your hometown or state in the search as well. I do this from time to time to see what people are saying and where on the web my name is showing. My name is fairly unique. I think there are only 2 or 3 other Justin Loew’s in the U.S. and probably the world. Since I am a public figure, most websites mentioning my name are actually about me. The search “Justin Loew” on google brings up 1,160 results, 20 pages of links. Most of them are related to my work at Channel 9. (by comparison, “Mike Smith” brings up 1.4 million links. Aside: a fun site to compare yourself to your friends is googlefight. If you are on the web a lot, or have a common name, you will likely “win” the fight most of the time).

Now maybe you are a little uneasy about your “‘results”. Maybe people are talking about you and you were not aware of it. That is how I felt at one point in the past, but I have gotten over it. There is always a chance you will be misquoted or libeled on the internet and there are famous cases in the past where people had their reputations severely damaged. There are legal remedies available in most cases of wrongdoing. For myself, I try my best to be open and truthful at all times. My motivations are generally quite clear. I have found that if you make enough comments or post enough content on the web you are bound to make mistakes that you might later regret. All you can do is go back and explain your error or misunderstanding. We all did (do) this in life before (without) the internet. Mea culpas and corrections are less private and perhaps more amplified now.

I was surprised to find my name mentioned on a couple of lists in relation to AGW – particularly with regard to “AGW skeptics”. I have never been asked to join an AGW skeptics list nor have I officially sought out such designation. One particularly popular quote (from this blog) was about how the terminology in the debate seems to be changing from “Global Warming” to “Climate Change”. My preference is for the term “Anthropogenic Global Warming” or AGW for short. This is the most concise and accurate term for what we are talking about. “Climate Change” just does not fit the bill. You could argue that AGW is just a subset of “Climate Change” but this has not been the discussion for the last 20 years. This is the discussion: Human activity=carbon dioxide emissions=greenhouse gas=warmer earth. At least through today, it has never been about generic climate change – never. Besides, to say “climate change” is a threat to humans (and life in general) is about as useful as saying puppies are cute. It is axiomatic.

As far as being a skeptic goes, regular readers of the blog know that I am a “small skeptic” in regards to certain aspects of AGW. I have always held that humans do have an effect on the climate but that we are not yet the primary driver of climate change (hopefully sometime in the future we will control the climate and prevent dangerous swings in temperature but we are not there yet). If you don’t believe humans affect the climate, I am sure I can convince you today, at least that humans have a small effect. Take a look around your office. Is it climate controlled. Is the air in your building modified? The AC might be running today as temps are rising into the 80s. Add up all the buildings, houses, stadiums, around the world and you end up with a lot of air that is being modified. Now this amount of air is a tiny tiny fraction of the total atmosphere, but it is air that would otherwise be undisturbed if it were not for a human presence. (aside: it is obvious that during the winter months our contribution to the climate is to warm it because we keep our buildings warm. Even though we use air conditioners in the summer, we are still contributing to warming because air conditioners use energy and this energy is eventually dissipated as heat. The net contribution is to add heat to the atmosphere). What about all the energy that is used on a daily basis? I discussed this in previous blog posts and did an actual calculation. All the energy we use ends up being dissipated as heat. It turns out the heat we generate is about one quarter of one percent of the energy/heat delivered by the sun everyday (if I remember correctly). Other scientists have done the calculation and it agreed with my result. So here is another modification of the climate that is a result of human activity. Certainly small, but it is there. A third modification you are familiar with and another that I have discussed in the blog is the urban heat island effect. You know this one exists just by walking out on your driveway. Pavement absorbs more sunlight and retains heat longer than most natural surfaces. Here in the United States you know we have A LOT OF PAVEMENT (concrete and blacktop). This is another aspect of human society that warms the climate to a small degree.

Of course, these are examples of small ways that humans affect the climate. What most interested parties are concerned with is how much greenhouse gases affect the climate and what to do about it. As you know, I am skeptical about the “worst case” and “business as usual” scenarios based on the fact that predicting not only how the atmosphere will change over the course of 100 years but also how human society will change in that same time period is a fools errand. Mathematically speaking – we are dealing with non-linear equations in the models, which become more unstable the farther you try to predict, and thus many limitations and assumptions have to be built in. These projections have consistently failed to account for increasingly scarce fossil fuel and the likely increase in price. They also cannot accurately predict how technology will evolve. Just 70 years ago my farming ancestors were plowing the fields with a team of horses. Now we have machines do the work. How will those machines change in the next 70 (or 100 years). Nobody knows, but there will be change.

I could also see how people would put me on a skeptics list based on the “AGW list”. I keep the list based more on my media career than anything else. I am amazed at the headlines revolving around AGW. I was bombarded with so many dire predictions that I started to keep a list. I thought it would be a good exercise in how attitudes change over the years. I started the list in November of 2007 but then stopped doing regular updates in early 2008 because the predictions became so hyperbolic. Some AGW theorists began predicting the end of nearly all life on earth. There was even a headline stating the earth was physically being torn apart by AGW (no kidding). The list is long, I have some additions, and new resources for people to check out, so I will bring it back for a reprise tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Even though some people have me on the skeptics list, regular readers also know that I am a big proponent of clean energy, alternative fuels, sustainable living, and new technology. I write about it often. You know I can’t wait to get my hands on an electric car.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW

I took a chance and started planting some of my frost sensitive plants yesterday. I know the old rule of thumb is to wait until Memorial Day (or after) to plants things like corn, peppers, and tomatoes. Looking ahead in the forecast it didn’t look like any significant threats of frost would occur in central Wisconsin this week. In contrast, in the Northwoods there could be a touch of frost on both Friday and Saturday morning. After this week, well, there is always a slight chance of frost through early June, but as a gardener you really can’t wait that long because you end up missing a week or two of the growing season. Some plants needs more than 80 days to mature.

So frost isn’t a threat for all the gardeners out there. Dry weather, on the other hand could be a royal pain. Looking ahead over the next few days I don’t see much hope for widespread heavy rain. There is a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and a slight chance of rain on Sunday and Monday. This is good news for the holiday weekend – not much threat of rain – but it means there is a chance some watering will have to be done before next week.

One area of the country that has been suffering drought as well but will receive bountiful rain over the next couple of days is Florida. A weather system has developed off the coast and there is a slight chance it could become tropical or a hybrid system. As I reported previously, hybrid systems started getting official names a couple years ago – even though they are not pure tropical systems. You can track the progress and the rainfall potential at the NHC website and HPC precipitation outlook.

Have a nice Tuesday. Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Freeze, Tropics

A cold front will dip down from Canada overnight tonight, holding back the heat to the west for a day.  The front will eventually stall out tomorrow morning across Central Wisconsin.  The exact point where the front stalls is still the big question.  This question will have a huge affect on tomorrow’s daytime temperatures.  Lets say the front stalls right along Highway 29.  Locations to the south will then see highs well into the 70′s, with only 50′s in the Northwoods.

When making a forecast for Wausau, I went with the simple logic of going down the middle of the road….middle 60′s.  Maybe when some new numbers come in by 10, I’ll have enough guts to go either way.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Science, Spring

Since we talked about this on the morning news I thought I would do a blog about it. 

Green is the new thing and the House of Representatives just apporoved  6.4 billion dollars in improving schools by making then more energy efficient.

We talked about one school that is already leading the way…  TC Williams High School in Alexandria Virginia.  The school was made famous for being in Remember the Titans but now it will be famous for being the first green school.

How are they being green according to this article “Environmentally friendly features of the school include: “a 450,000-gallon underground cistern to collect and store rainwater for use in toilet flushing, air-conditioning operations and irrigation; a rooftop garden to provide stormwater management; waterless urinals to reduce the amount of water used inside the building; and a permanent measurement and verification system to track water and energy usage at the facility.” The students have the opportunity to see their school’s environmental footprint through the data collected at the central “dash board” in the Ferdinand T. Day Student Commons.

Another way…they meausure their trash, use solar panels and use specially-glazed windows that keep heat from coming in but provide natural light to hallways.

The added green extras do cost more- on average two to five percent more then a conventional building which in this schools case equals about two million dollars.  On the flip side, they say in the end it pays off, typically they will save $100,000 a year on operating expenses.  This could mean they could hire two more teachers, purchase 200 new computers or 5000 textbooks.

To learn more you can visit the schools website.

Have a great day! Enjoy the sunshine and warmer temperatures! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Alternative Energy, Pollution, Science

Memorial Day is right around the corner and soon we will be actually in summer mode across North Central Wisconsin.  One thing that comes with people going up north is boating.  It is always important that safety is first.  Since boating will be come even more popular it is National Safe Boating Week across the US.  During the week there will be a different focus everyday.  Here is the outline on the NWS site.

According the the United States Coast Guard on average 80% of all reported fatalities occurred on boats where the operator had not received safety training. 

Another vital point is to know the different small craft advisories that are issued from the National Weather Service.  It is also important to know what your boat can handle before you head out onto the waters. 

The National Weather Service  issues specific forecast for marine zones not just on land.  If you will be out on a big body of water it is important and a good idea to check out the latest forecast. 

This websitehas alot of vital information, check it out!

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Science, Severe Weather, Spring, Uncategorized