We will not break a record for the driest or the coolest July ever in Wausau, but we will come very close to both. The record lowest rainfall in Wausau during the month of July occurred back in 1937 and was 0.94 inches. This year we have received 1.01 inches and we could pick up another quarter to half inch tomorrow. On the temperature side of things our mean July temperature in 2009 is 64.9. The record coldest July occurred in 1992 when the mean temperature was only 63.4 (normal is 70.1). Even though I expect below normal temps today, tomorrow, and Friday, it will not be cold enough for us to break the record. Even though we will not break the all-time records it is quite interesting that we were so close to breaking both in the same year.
As is typical across the U.S. and North America in general, when there is an extreme in one place it is balanced by the opposite extreme in another place. This time around we have record cool temps in the Great Lakes region while the Pacific Northwest is experiencing record heat. Excessive heat warnings are in effect from northern Oregon through the Seattle area. High temps could reach 100 in Seattle both today and tomorrow. If the temperature does reach 100 or above, it will tie or break the all-time record high in Seattle which is 100, set back on July 20th of 1994 (Source). Portland Oregon missed their all-time record by one degree yesterday when the mercury hit 106. The big problem with the heat in the Pacific Northwest is that not many people have air conditioning. It just doesn’t get too hot too often, not often enough to make large investments in air conditioning infrastructure. Thankfully they have the ocean nearby.
It is about time to look at a few AGW related items in the news lately. Once again, water shortages are being blamed on AGW when the primary culprit is overuse by humans. Here is a story about how the “Fertile Crescent”(The Tigris and Euphrates River Valleys in Iraq) are drying up. The authors accurately pin the problem on new dams going up in Iran, Turkey, and northern Iraq, but then have to bring in climate modelers to pile on – indicating that it will be much worse because of AGW. If Turkey was not building dams, there would certainly not be as much trouble and no one is certain if precipitation in the region will be less or more in coming decades due to AGW. I guess I just don’t see the necessity of linking the desertification of the fertile crescent with AGW when the current culprit and the basis of the story is human interuption of stream-flow.
Another occurrence that is getting blamed on AGW is noctilucent clouds. Read here. The blame is being placed on AGW even though the understanding of how and why these clouds are forming is minimal. I don’t think there is nearly enough evidence to place the blame squarely on AGW. It might very well have something to do with other natural climate changes or pollution.
Now a couple interesting items to add to the AGW list. For first time readers, the AGW list is a list of all the bad things that are predicted to occur over the next few decades due to AGW. I decided to keep track because I had read so many different predictions over the last couple of decades that I couldn’t remember the details anymore. I started keeping track in November of 2007 but paused earlier this year (2009) because the predictions had gotten so all-encompassing that it was difficult to add anything meaningful to the list. When the predictions are mass extinction and destruction of the biosphere and even the earth itself, things covers pretty much everything. I still keep track of some of the more explicit and interesting predictions. Seeing all the predictions in one place helps one appreciate the media coverage and perhaps the impact on policy-makers and human psyche. Items that have a strike-through were once blamed on AGW but then later found out to have a different cause.
The latest additions (in addition to the Fertile Crescent and noctilucent clouds): The western U.S. will suffer from increased wildfires and poor air quality.
Animal species are getting smaller.
There is a 50% chance that Colorado river Reservoirs will go dry by 2050.
The Fertile Crescent will dry up, more noctilucent clouds, more wildfires and p0or air quality will occur in the Western U.S., Soay sheep – as well as most animal species – are shrinking, there is a 50% chance that Colorado River Reservoirs will dry up by 2050, China’s silk road valley will suffer from increased flooding, Monsoon areas will shift, African farmers will need heat-resistant crops, shellfish will die, bigger sand dunes, Mediterranean sea to rise 2 feet, the Amazon rain forest will be more susceptible to fires, sea level rise to be worse in New York City, the Maldives will flood, woody weeds will expand in Australia, the Gulf Stream could shut down, major rivers will lose more water, every aspect of human healthwill get worse, pinon pines trees will die, seals will be contaminated with mercury, ice-dependent life will disappear from the Antarctic peninsula, wildfire hotspots will shift around the world, cicadas are coming out earlier, tropical lizards will die, pets will suffer, Lyme disease could get worse,the earth’s magnetic poles will shift, Bluetongue virus spreading and moving out of the tropics, the 2007-09 California drought, agriculture will cease in the state of California, Northern and southern Europe will get hotter, all earth’s seasons are arriving 2 days earlier, cocoa production could decline, too many males in some fish and reptile species, Reindeer could become endangered, bigger waves along the Oregon coast, crabgrass will take over your lawn, migratory fish populations will decline, jumbo squid will move slower and starve, ski areas will go out of business, an increase in tick-borne disease epidemics, soil will become less fertile, global forests (including cool weather trees) will be devastated, tiger attacks on humans will increase, tropical and mountain animal species will go extinct, a dirty dozen of diseases will spread, less bright Fall foliage, the weather will be harder to predict, large animal species could go extinct, power blackouts, more flooded subways, Mountain snowmelt will occur up to 2 months earlier, more bee colony collapse disorder and other multiple infectious disease outbreaks, 1 in 8 bird species could go extinct – including long distance migratory song birds, some birds will have to migrate further, eucalyptus leaves will become less nutritious and Koala bears will die, the 2008 tropical storm disaster in Myanmar, Tropical bugs will not reproduce, toxic chemicals will pour out of glaciers, more deadly algae blooms, more poverty, a massive increase in volcanic activity, new disease outbreaks from previously frozen corpses, irreversible water circulation alteration in Lake Tahoe, dramatically decreased rice production, fewer flowers in the Rocky Mountains, transportation systems will be ruined, air pollution related deaths will increase, tropical fish could go deaf, more “ocean deserts”, more tundra wildfires, collapsing oceanic food webs, sharks devastating Antarctic sea life as well as general devastation of Antarctic sea life due to other predators and disruptions, the drying up of Lake Mead by 2021, plant-devouring insect invasions, poor food quality, increased human mortality, more solastalgia/mental illness, more wars, the past 1993 conflict in Somalia, more intense heat waves, more heat deaths, more hurricanes, less hurricanes, more intense and bigger hurricanes, a longer hurricane season, more stormy and severe weather – especially near the poles, rising oceans, more acidic oceans, California wildfires, more droughts, more floods, future disastrous declines in food production, coral reefs (hard and soft) bleaching, dissolving and dying, all the world’s coral could die, 100 million people will be displaced because of problems with coral, enormous extinctions of plant and animal species (including – Kangaroos, Caribou, Polar bears, Narwhals, Butterfly fish, Lemmings, Isle Royale Moose, Walruses, Penguins, King Penguins, Adélie Land King Penguins, Australian Bats), massive loss of fish in the Bering Sea, the earth literally being torn apart, Amazon deforestation, a bigger ozone hole, a smaller ozone hole, a slower recovery of ozone, ozone recovery will be uneven, less fresh water, all aspects of human health will get worse, more obesity, more hunger, more asthma, more allergies, more infectious disease, more kidney stones…more to come.
Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.
Posted under AGW, Records
This post was written by jloew on July 29, 2009