I had the opportunity to go camping near Rhinelander last weekend. My wife brought up Murphy’s Law – remarking as to how it has been so dry for much of the summer and then the weekend we decide to have a big family get-together including fishing and camping - it rains. At least it wasn’t a continuous rain. The highest amount was on Saturday afternoon. It rained from about 1:30 until 3:00 pm and there was a half inch. Amazingly, bythe next day, there was not much sign of the rain. The ground was so dry that it soaked up very quick. The upshot of the rain is that hopefully the water level will begin rising again – or at least stop dropping. Many people have noticed the lower lake levels in recent years. Reservoirs have been particularly hard hit, some of them drying up to just a trickle during the late summer of the last 2 years. The natural lake we were at has fallen between 2 and 2.5 feet since 2001 (the last year with above normal rainfall in most of northcentral Wisconsin). I doubt the lake levels will come up much until we have 3 or 4 years in a row of above normal rainfall.

So the weather was cool and we had off-and-on rain over the weekend. That is exactly what we can expect for the upcoming work week.

Picture by Shirley Kohnen

It looks like a good chance (at least 60%) of thunderstorms this afternoon, on Thursday, and again on Saturday. There is a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms on Tuesday and Sunday. Wednesday and Friday are currently looking like the best days with dry conditions and more sun than clouds. High temps could hit 80 today and then remain in the 70s from Tuesday through Sunday – so the cool weather pattern continues. July of 2009 will end being the coldest July we have experienced since the record cold of 1992. Is it so cool that some trees might already be turning color? At least one tree at Shirley Kohnen’s place has all red leaves. That being said, very few trees will display this type of early coloring. For the vast majority of the area, our best color is coming in late September and early October – like usual.

Alternative Energy:

Last week I linked to an article about investment into algae-produced ethanol, and how one company was developing an efficient process for the purpose of creating a new source of liquid hydrocarbons for the plastic industry. A couple more articles extolling the virtues of algae-produced ethanol have come to my attention this week. This one describes a couple new business ventures and claims current algae ethanol techniques can achieve an EROI of 3 or 4 to 1. Grain based ethanol (using yeast) is barely 1.2 to 1 even under the most ideal conditions. Meaning we can barely get as much energy out of the process than we put into it. Petroleum has an EROI of at least 5 to 1.  A new start-up claims an even bigger advance. Joule Biotechnologies claims it can make 20,000 gallons of ethanol per acre. They claim they could produce all the fuel needed for transportation in the U.S. in an area that size of the Texas panhandle. Joule will be building a test production plant next year. Then we will find out if it can really deliver. The one hitch in the Joule method (and many similar algae methods) is that it needs a concentrated source of carbon dioxide, which would most likely have to come from a coal or natural gas fired power plant. So as far as AGW goes, the algae ethanol is theoretically carbon neutral, until you factor in the source of the carbon dioxide. Also, using liquid hydrocarbons for fuel, no matter the source, still produces pollution.

Speaking of AGW, the American Meteorological Society recently issued a statement in support of geo-engineeringto save the planet from the theorized destructive warming that might happen over the next few decades. It is nice to see a statement in support of geo-engineering but we will have to wait a while to see if they make the correct move toward support of carbon capture and carbon removal. Most of the other proposed geo-engineering is dangerous. Fertilizing the oceans and putting reflective particulates in the air in or space could have serious side effects. What is needed is carbon removal. If AGW theorists are right, then it is the only sensible option. We should be creating/inventing methods of extracting CO2 from the air or have plants do it for us. Perhaps something like these cabon capturing molecules could lead the way. Storing the captured carbon dioxide gas underground could be effective according to recent research. But is it safe? Even better would be if plants could grow more, store the carbon, and then decompose underground. There is still plenty of room in Wisconsin for thicker forests and bigger trees.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Pollution, Viewer pictures

Tomorrow begins EAA Airventure in Oshkosh! I have to say as a kid I looked forward to going every year.  In fact Airventure played a huge role to why I am here today forecasting the weather.  My Dad was a private pilot and as a child I was lucky enough to be around and in planes growing up.  This meant every year we made the trek to Oshkosh and camped out for a few days.  My Dad is a huge aviation enthusiast and is one of the only people I know that can tell anyone anything about almost every plane there is! Needless to say, I was hooked on aviation.  I looked at many colleges while attending the event while I was in high school.  I had always had my eye on Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and was so excited when they decided to add their own Meteorology program my senior year in high school.  Needless to say I attended and am now here, all thanks to them being at Airventure!

They always have a government building at the event and our own local NWS will be there this year.  You can check out the article here.  One of the main highlights will be a hurricane simulator where you can experience Category 1 winds!

Yesterday we received .02″ of rain which put us for the month in Wausau at .94″. This ties the driest July ever which occurred back in 1937.  Since we have many rain chances this week I am sure we will surpass the driest but it will be interesting to see where we do end up in the list. More than likely in the top 5 depending on the amount of rain we get this week.

Last but not least…where are the storms!?!?! Through July 25th we have not had a single tornado report in the 22 counties that the National Weather Service in Green Bay forecasts for.  In 2005 we saw 23 and only 1 in 2006.  The last year we saw none was in 1975.  The most occurring in the 2005 year.  typically we see an average of 6.  Although we are past peak season there is still the potential to see a tornado. 

Have a good night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Drought, Severe Weather, Storms

Yesterday was a bust, it all looked good until the mornings storms basically stole the ingredients we needed for the afternoon storms, the most important factor being moisture.  Today we are in cyclonic flow which means the low that is just east of us in Lake Superior is spinning counter clockwise and throwing disturbances at us which is firing showers and a few storms all across the area.  The radar has continued to be active with almost everyone receiving at least one shower.  The activity will taper down as we loos the heating of the day and I anticipate most of it to be done by Midnight.  I will still keep an isolated shower possible in the overnight. 

Tomorrow…same story, different day.  The showers and storms will again fire up, mainly in the afternoon.  We will continue to be in this pattern until late Sunday when the low finally moves more east.  The break will be short lived as another cold front is forecasted to move in by late in the day on Monday.  This will mean more storms Monday evening through Tuesday.  There will be the potential for strong storms and as always we keep an eye on the chance as we get closer. 

Although we are seeing plenty of rain chances we are still seeing the cold temps.  Our NWS office came out with a discussion about why.  I know we have blogged about this previously but I thought I would share it again and add in there graphics.  We continue to be stuck in a trough of the jet stream.  This trough covers mostly the eastern half of the US. Take a look at the graphic below.  Because  of this we keep getting fed with cool Canadian air.  Normally the jet stream would be way to our north in Canada.  On the flip side the western half of the US has been under the ridge which has meant for record breaking heat.  Unfortunately it doesn’t look like summer is going to be returning anytime soon with highs only forecasted in the mid 70′s.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Severe Weather, Storms

Thunderstorms that fired up to the west of us have stabilized much of the area, minimizing the threat of severe weather.  Dry air has stuck around northcentral Wisconsin as dew points remain in the 50′s.  The SPC has now taken us out of there slight risk for widespread severe weather.

A few showers and storms may fire up yet along the cold front this evening.  As the front clears, storm activity will quickly diminish shortly after sunset.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

After a very quiet stretch from severe weather we are gearing up for some potential storms this afternoon.  Right now convection has tracked south of the area including a massive storm in NE Iowa.  Somewhat surprisingly we’ve seen quite a bit of clearing behind that first round of rain.  This clearing is helping enhance our instability for when a cold front to the northwest passes through.  Right now at 2:00 p.m. in the afternoon, a few showers are trying to develop along the front from the U.P. over towards Eau Claire.  This convection should fire up here in the next hour or so.  The storm prediction center still has the entire area under a slight risk for widespread severe weather.  At this time, no watches are in place but that could change.  Once the storms develop this afternoon, they will quickly move out probably by nightfall.  Stay tuned to waow.com and tv 9/34 for updates….

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

Storms moved into the area through the early morning hours but alot of the activity dissipated from around 5:30 am on.  This round will continue to linger but more storms should fire up along a cold front that will move through the area from late afternoon into the evening.  The potential for severe weather does exist but it will be very dependent on how this morning storms affects the conditions.  If we continue to stay cloudy and on the cool side then there will be less of a threat for the area.  The latest risk of severe weather from Storm Prediction Center came out at 8 am and it covers almost all of Wisconsin.  If you look at the second graphic though the highest risk, the 30%, is still mainly southern Wisconsin.  We will see the potential for damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado with these storms.

If you have any plans later today it would be advised to pay attention to the forecast.  If you haven’t done so, you may want to sign up for Weather Call! For details on it head to the weather section at www.waow.com.

Have a great day! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Uncategorized

The storms last night produced rainfall totals from a Trace to just over an inch in some areas.  In Langlade county around Summit Lake there was a report of 1.02″.  We also received a report of half an inch size hail in Wausau.  Our rain vision was showing amounts over 2 inches although no actual totals have come in that high.  I heard the storms in the Wausau area at about 10 pm because I was woken up by my dog who is deathly afraid of the storms!  It was quite a lightning show from the storms last night but most of it tapered down by midnight with just a few still to our southeast this morning.

Today should be a fairly quiet day with only a few popcorn showers and storms across the area thanks to a little instability.  The better chances will come tomorrow when we see a low pressure system and its associated cold front move through.  The timing seems to be later in the day into the evening when we will see the greatest probability.  Along with the storms we will see the potential for severe weather.  Below is the slight risk from storm prediction center.  You can see that the highest threat stays to our south like we have seen almost all summer long.  But because there is still the potential we will be keeping a close eye on this frontal passage.  Alot of factors will play into the risk including if we see daytime heating, and how warm we get before the front. 

Some cooler air will push in here after the front.  Although we will likely not see the coldest July on record we are still seeing an unusually cold July! I know Justin did an blog last week about how we are comparing to other years.  To this date in July we have only hit 80 3 times.  Remember we should be hitting it everyday! Through the long term it looks like we will continue to stay in the mid 70′s.  I have to admit I like the heat and would like it to return!

I wanted to share the Midwest Regional Climate Center it is the site for climate in our area.  It is kind of interesting to put in any month and year and find out where we were in comparison to normal.  Maybe you remember a year that was really warm or wet, just change the pull downs on the top right and see what you find.  I also wanted to share one map, you can see how our average temp compares to normal over the last week.  This map shows western Wisconsin is even cooler but we are in the 7 to 9 degree below average range.   So again I ask, Where is July!?!?

Have a terrific Thursday! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Records, Severe Weather, Storms

Along with cooler temperatures and a lack of rainfall, severe weather has been almost non-existent this summer.  It has been 12 weeks since the N.W.S. Office in Green Bay has received an official severe weather report.  The lack of severe weather has truly been remarkable; a quiet stretch like no other. 

This could all change Friday.  We are closely watching an Alberta Clipper Low that will swing through on Friday.  Thunderstorms will be likely by Friday afternoon.  Now the main severe weather threat appears to be south of the area, but we’ll have to which this set up closely.  Shear values could be very favorable to go along with a decent amount of instability.  The highest projected amount of instability is centered across southern Wisconsin.  The N.W.S. office in Milwaukee is not taking this set up lightly.  Here is an excerpt from their afternoon discussion….

“      AS STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON…THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY…SHEAR…AND FORCING TO WORK WITH. IF THAT MESO LOW
DOES PAN OUT…0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30+ KNOTS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 50 KNOTS. LONG…LOOPING HODOGRAPHS RESULT…FAVORING
STRONG SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL. STRONG TORNADO PARAMETERS
GREATER THAN 5 ALSO HIGHLY SUPPORT THIS.

WE RAN THE LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST FOR THE NAM…GFS…AND
THE ECMWF AND THE RESULT CAME OUT IN THE HIGHEST CATEGORY FOR ALL
THREE MODELS…EVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY GFS. THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THAT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FROM JUNE 23 2004.
ADDED SEVERE WORDING TO THE GRIDS FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY EVENING.     ”

The Storm Prediction Center has yet to jump on this..but that will likely change if all these projected parameters remain the same. 

Recalling June 23, 2004 is quite alarming…On this day 17 tornadoes touched down across the southern half of the state, including and F1 which tracked 17 miles across Adams and Juneau Counties. 

For more on this event, here are a couple links to follow..

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/events/june232004tor.php

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/document/tor/062304.php

In summary, we are closely watching the potential for severe weather on Friday, but southern Wisconsin is more of the target.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Severe Weather, Storms

As expected, the rainfall yesterday and last night was hit-or-miss. Some locations had downpours and other had none. Here in Wausau we ended up with just enough to wet the pavement (0.03″). Our weather watcher Pat from Arkdale reported 2 inches of rain and the unofficial total from Alexander Field in Wisconsin Rapids was 2.84 inches!! Most of the rain feel in the eastern half of the area. If showers form this afternoon, once again the heavier rain is likely from Marathon county and I-39/51 on east in the area. For those who missed out, the next best chance of rain will be on Friday when a strong cold front moves through the area. One good thing about the forecast is that heavy rain is looking less likely for Saturday. It is now looking like mostly cloudy and cooler conditions with scattered light showers Saturday afternoon. It could be enough rain to cause some problems with your outdoor activities but it shouldn’t be a complete deal-breaker. Overall, high temps will still be about 5 degrees below normal from today through Sunday with Thursday being the warmest day (highs in the upper 70s to near 80). Even next week could be below normal. Given the cooler temps, I am starting to think Brian will win the latest office forecasting contest. The challenge was to forecast how many days in July would have a high temperature of exactly 81 degrees. Brian had the lowest guess with 2 days. So far we have recorded no days with a high of 81 during July. I thought it would be an interesting forecast contest because the normal high for the month is 80.8 degrees, which would lead most people to believe that we would hit that mark at least once or twice. In July of 2004 we had 6 days when the high was 81. In 2005 it was twice. In 2006 and 2007 it was only once. Last year it happened twice. This year is not looking promising, we might not even have any days above 80 for the rest of the month! We have only experienced 3 days with high temps in the 80s!

So is there any hope for a warm weather trend in the future? I have a sneaky suspicion that we might have a pretty nice Fall and maybe a mild early winter period because of El Nino.

August Temp. Anomaly

A weak El Nino is forming right now and the CPC experts expect it to last into the winter.

Aug-Sept-Oct Temp. Anomaly

If the El Nino would happen to reach moderate or strong status then it would be even more likely that we would see a change in the jet stream pattern and develop milder weather – maybe by late September, October, or November. I see that the latest long range computer output is latching on to the idea of a warmer winter for our area. Although, you should take it with a grain of salt because the last two winter’s were predicted to be warmer than normal (CPC outlook) and of course they ended up being 2 of the coldest we have experienced in some time.

Jan-Feb-March Temp. Anomaly

Maybe you can take it with a smaller grain of salt this year because El Nino is a fairly reliable weather signal. You can check each month of the outlook here. You will notice that the computer outlook indicates a greater than average chance of cooler than normal weather in our part of the country for August and September but then by November and December and especially by February, a much greater the average chance of warmer than normal conditions.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, ENSO Update

Oops, not factoring the massive time change, the eclipse has actually already begun across the world.  The eclipse will continue through day(across the world) and through the night here if you want to view it on a webcam.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized