It has been a couple of weeks since the last AGW update so let us get to it.
Brian found an interesting article earlier this week about the U.S. Military analyzing threat scenarios based on climate change. The article states that violent storms, droughts, mass migration, and pandemics will topple governments, feed terrorist movements, or destabilize entire regions. First of all, these climate threats have always existed and have alwayscaused this sort-of trouble. The real question is whether the negative affects will increase if the climate becomes warmer (or changes dramatically in any manner). In order to begin to answer this question we have to dig a little deeper into the speculative future than the IPCC’s unrealistic “business as usual” climate prediction for the next 100 years.
Despite the daily drumbeat of “deadly news” in the mainstream media, the world has actually become a much less violent place. Based on all the available data we are living in the least violent time in all of human history. There are violent hotspots in the world such as the middle east, however, this is nothing compared to the past. Even the 20th century with the world wars and communist death camps was an order of magnitude less violent than previous centuries. View this excellent video for the whole story. The point is, even though the military brass is making sweeping statements about how there are going to be sooooo many violent troubles due to climate change, it is more likely that the world community will come together to help people in need (instead of create new military engagements). In my opinion, a great deal of the decline in violence is due to the increasingly connected nature of the world. The Internet and cell phones are everywhere and will only penetrate more corners of the globe in coming years. When we can see and talk to people in different countries of the world we are less likely to fall prey to blind hatred and propaganda. And of course, the IPCC and U.S. military cannot accurately predict how technology will change over the next 10 years (much less the next 100 years) and thus are probably missing a key aspect of any theoretical AGW destruction.
So to make a long story short, the U.S. military has given us a few more items to add to the big AGW list of disaster predictions that have appeared in the media. And I have to agree with Brian that it does seem blown out of proportion. We are getting to the point where it seems almost every current and future problem is being blamed on AGW.
Other news: AGW will cause changes in the tilt of the earth’s axis. This is interesting and happens whenever the earth goes through climate changes, however, I can’t put it on the list because the article thankfully does not propose any disaster that will come along with the change in the tilt.
The Arctic ocean will become a “polluted stagnant soup”. This could happen, but the real problem here is that humans pollute.
The earth’s biogeochemical cycles are becoming out of sync.
More poverty will occur in developing nations, especially in urban areas.
The trees in Yellowsotne Park are getting smaller.
So here is the updated big list of bad things that will occur because of AGW. Strikethrough items are things that were once blamed on AGW but have been found to be caused by something else. The list is an exercise in historical record. We should certainly pay attention to how things are changing around us and take steps to minimize any harm to the environment, however, we should also monitor perceptions. If nothing else, the list (collected from media headlines since November of 2007) provides a sense of awe when presented in one continuous stream.
Trees in Yellowstone will get smaller, governments will topple, terrorist movements will grow, entire regions of the world will destabilize, the Arctic ocean will become a stagnant polluted soup, urban dwellers in developing countries will suffer from greater rates of poverty, the earth’s biogeochemical cycles will become out of sync, the Fertile Crescent will dry up, more noctilucent clouds, more wildfires and p0or air quality will occur in the Western U.S., Soay sheep – as well as most animal species – are shrinking, there is a 50% chance that Colorado River Reservoirs will dry up by 2050, China’s silk road valley will suffer from increased flooding, Monsoon areas will shift, African farmers will need heat-resistant crops, shellfish will die, bigger sand dunes, Mediterranean sea to rise 2 feet, the Amazon rain forest will be more susceptible to fires, sea level rise to be worse in New York City, the Maldives will flood, woody weeds will expand in Australia, the Gulf Stream could shut down, major rivers will lose more water, every aspect of human healthwill get worse, pinon pines trees will die, seals will be contaminated with mercury, ice-dependent life will disappear from the Antarctic peninsula, wildfire hotspots will shift around the world, cicadas are coming out earlier, tropical lizards will die, pets will suffer, Lyme disease could get worse,the earth’s magnetic poles will shift, Bluetongue virus spreading and moving out of the tropics, the 2007-09 California drought, agriculture will cease in the state of California, Northern and southern Europe will get hotter, all earth’s seasons are arriving 2 days earlier, cocoa production could decline, too many males in some fish and reptile species, Reindeer could become endangered, bigger waves along the Oregon coast, crabgrass will take over your lawn, migratory fish populations will decline, jumbo squid will move slower and starve, ski areas will go out of business, an increase in tick-borne disease epidemics, soil will become less fertile, global forests (including cool weather trees) will be devastated, tiger attacks on humans will increase, tropical and mountain animal species will go extinct, a dirty dozen of diseases will spread, less bright Fall foliage, the weather will be harder to predict, large animal species could go extinct, power blackouts, more flooded subways, Mountain snowmelt will occur up to 2 months earlier, more bee colony collapse disorder and other multiple infectious disease outbreaks, 1 in 8 bird species could go extinct – including long distance migratory song birds, some birds will have to migrate further, eucalyptus leaves will become less nutritious and Koala bears will die, the 2008 tropical storm disaster in Myanmar, Tropical bugs will not reproduce, toxic chemicals will pour out of glaciers, more deadly algae blooms, more poverty, a massive increase in volcanic activity, new disease outbreaks from previously frozen corpses, irreversible water circulation alteration in Lake Tahoe, dramatically decreased rice production, fewer flowers in the Rocky Mountains, transportation systems will be ruined, air pollution related deaths will increase, tropical fish could go deaf, more “ocean deserts”, more tundra wildfires, collapsing oceanic food webs, sharks devastating Antarctic sea life as well as general devastation of Antarctic sea life due to other predators and disruptions, the drying up of Lake Mead by 2021, plant-devouring insect invasions, poor food quality, increased human mortality, more solastalgia/mental illness, more wars, the past 1993 conflict in Somalia, more intense heat waves, more heat deaths, more hurricanes, less hurricanes, more intense and bigger hurricanes, a longer hurricane season, more stormy and severe weather – especially near the poles, rising oceans, more acidic oceans, California wildfires, more droughts, more floods, future disastrous declines in food production, coral reefs (hard and soft) bleaching, dissolving and dying, all the world’s coral could die, 100 million people will be displaced because of problems with coral, enormous extinctions of plant and animal species (including – Kangaroos, Caribou, Polar bears, Narwhals, Butterfly fish, Lemmings, Isle Royale Moose, Walruses, Penguins, King Penguins, Adélie Land King Penguins, Australian Bats), massive loss of fish in the Bering Sea, the earth literally being torn apart, Amazon deforestation, a bigger ozone hole, a smaller ozone hole, a slower recovery of ozone, ozone recovery will be uneven, less fresh water, all aspects of human health will get worse, more obesity, more hunger, more asthma, more allergies, more infectious disease, more kidney stones…more to come
Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.
Posted under AGW
A cold NNE wind brought some lake effect rain showers to the southern tip of the Lake Michigan coastline on Sunday morning….well at least it wasn’t snow. This is the same process however as lake effect snow, it’s just still way to warm of course. The air flowing over lake Michigan was cold enough to start the lake effect process, thereusually has to be a 10 degree difference from the water temperature. And you have to have a big enough fetch off of the water….both the key contributors were in place.
Lightning shooting upward
