A killing frost hit most of the viewing area last night and early this morning. It was so cold that we had one record broken in Merrill. The low temperature in Merrill was 20. The old record set in 1924 and again in 1984 was 25. Rhinelander was just 2 degrees away from tying a record with a low of 23. In Wausau the low temperature was 30, which wasn’t a record but it was the coldest we have experienced so far this Fall season. I had to stay up late yesterday evening in order to gather in my last viable vegetables from the garden. Unfortunately because of the cooler than normal Summer, a lot of my tomatoes and peppers were ripening very late so some of them had to stay out on the vine and perish. I also had to move my citrus trees inside for the cold season.

(Aside: speaking of records, it looks like we will break the record for the driest September, more on this tomorrow)

Speaking of the cold season, just yesterday I linked to an article about the fickle nature of El Nino this year. It is still a weak El Nino and some experts are starting to hedge their bets as to whether it will have a big effect on our winter in the U.S. If El Nino would happen to strengthen into the moderate category then it would be much more likely we would have a milder than normal winter. If it remains weak, then the effects could be minor. Even more interesting – according to Matt Rogers of the Commodity Weather Group – for the northeastern U.S., a weak El Nino actually leads to colder and snowier conditions more often than not. He is quoted in this article claiming a weakEl Nino leads to colder than normal winter conditions in the Northeast 70 to 75 percent of the time. Take note, this is not 100%. This still leaves a 25 to 30% chance that the winter could be warmer than normal in the Northeast.

I tell you one thing, if we have another winter with well below normal temps and significant periods of bitter cold and/or heavy snow, it will start to sow some doubt in my mind about AGW (anthropogenic global warming) forecasts. Not doubt about whether human activity can influence the climate; not doubt about the need to reduce pollution; not doubt about the need to find cleaner energy sources; just doubt about all the environmental Armageddon predictions we have heard for so many years now. I know that the weather (and winters) in other parts of the world have been warmer recently, or at least that is what has been reported by some large organizations that monitor the climate around the globe, and I know that 3 cold winters in a row is not long enough to establish a definite climate trend, however, considering all of the hyperbolic dire predictions over AGW, one would think things would be warming up pretty soon. One would think AGW, as dominant of a force it is modeled to be, would soon overwhelm any natural cycles and bitter cold winters would be a thing of the past. We will see.

Along the same line of thought, what about cosmic rays and AGW? I have covered this topic a couple times in the blog. There are at least a couple researchers in the world who claim that more cosmic radiation (from outerspace) causes more clouds to form in the earth’s atmosphere and thus creates cooler weather.  They made predictions that this effect would keep global temperatures cooler than what climate models were predicting. Seeing that the amount of cosmic radiation is currently at an all time high – it presents a good opportunity to observe if indeed cosmic rays have an effect on the climate. As mentioned earlier – we will see.

Finally, a cool gallery of pictures of rare clouds that occur in the earth’s atmosphere. Each cloud pictures (or set of pictures) comes with an adequate explanation of how the clouds form, in case you were ever wondering. My favorite are the Kelvin-Helmholtz wave clouds. I see them about once a year in the Midwest. What I would really like to do is capture the Kelvin-Helmholtz wave clouds in time lapse. Playing a sped-up time-lapse of the waves would reveal how closely they mimic crashing waves in the water.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, ENSO Update, Records, Space, Viewer pictures

With the recent arrival of colder air, the fall colors have really exploded the last couple of days across northcentral Wisconsin.  A few spots are already reporting near peak color.  Kristen and I took a drive up to Merrill today for a school talk and I was just amazed by the color. 

The last couple of week’s I’ve been wondering how this year’s foliage would turn out.  Remember the leaves started to change when we hit a cold snap way back in late August.  Then we had a very warm and dry first 3 weeks of September and the tree color literally stalled and the leaves just kind of wilted.  I guess all it took was the return of Fall!!!

To check the Fall Color State Map…follow this link..

I also wanted to mention that we now have a camera hooked up on top of the Dudley Tower in downtown Wausau.  This camera should provide us with some beautiful and useful views of the area.  I hope you like it.

http://www.waow.com/Global/Category.asp?C=155397

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Fall Color

We seem to go from one extreme to the next around here! 

 If you are wishing for winter we received our first taste of it up North! This morning on the local obs in Eagle River snow was reported.  If it was anything I am sure it was just a few flakes. The obs were observed at 3:30, 4:30 and also 8:30 am.  

Tonight we have a FREEZE WARNING in effect for the Northwoods with a FROST ADIVOSRY for our other counties.  I did a little research to find out when was the last time  we were this cold.

In Wausau:

The last time we hit below freezing was 31 on April 22nd.  The last time we hit just above was May 11 when we dipped to 33.

In Rhinelander:

The last time we hit freezing ,32, was June 4th.  The last time we were less then 30 was May 29th when we hit 29. 

Make sure to cover any plants especially if you are in the North! This could be a killing freeze for many areas.   

On a different note… The national news today was focusing on the 8.0 magnitude Earthquake that caused a Tsunami that hit the Samoa Islands in the Pacific.  For more info check out this article.  Here second one on the topic.  I thought this article was very informative on how earthquakes and tsunamis are related, something people commonly questioned.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Freeze, Uncategorized, Winter Weather

I have been focusing quite closely on the developing El Nino in order to get a handle on upcoming winter trends in the U.S., particularly here in the Midwest. Many people could use a more accurate long term outlook in order to plan, energy bills, vacations, or major purchases.

Weak El Nino so far this year

A moderate to strong El Nino will usually give us a little more certainty. It would typically mean wetter and colder weather for the southwestern U.S. and California could really use a wetter than normal winter. Here in the upper Midwest, a moderate to strong El Nino usually means a milder and drier winter. A weak El Nino does not affect our winter weather too much. 

Mega El Nino of 1997-98

The current El Nino pattern has not yet reached a moderate level. Here is a recent discussion about this year’s El Nino, where a couple El Nino experts are hedging their bets as to whether this El Nino will grow in strength. If it does not, then it is more likely (though not guaranteed) that we will have more normal winter conditions. In the article are images comparing the strength of this year’s El Nino and the El Nino of 1997-98. The contrast is quite dramatic. The monthly El Nino discussion will arrive in a week to 10 days and we will get a better read on any strengthening.

In the short term, it will surely feel more like winter outside today. The weather has changed quickly and it looks like we will have our first hard frost of the Fall season tonight. A FREEZE WARNING is in effect for areas north of Marathon county for tonight. A FROST ADVISORY is in effect for the rest of central and southern Wisconsin. We might have a touch of frost on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well. Overall, it looks like cooler than normal weather will continue for the next week to 10 days.

Space News:

NASA’s LCROSS probe is aiming for a different lunar crater. The original crater was judged to have too many “negatives” for getting a good result of water detection. The new crater increases the odds of a “good find”. In case you were unaware, the LCROSS mission includes sending an impactor into the lunar surface. Instruments will then analyze the ejecta (debris that flies into the air) and see if there is water. This event is planned for October 9th. Hopefully they will get some good video and pictures. There is nothing like smashing objects into one another. The Deep Impact mission was spectacular.

When it comes to humans traveling to Mars, one of the main negative factors is time. Most experts estimate it will take a little more than 500 days. Here is an old concept “the two burn” that could cut the time of the trip in half. However, it does require fueling up in space (near the moon), and then there is the matter of getting back to earth.

This story about a potential new dark matter/energy detector brought up some old question marks (in my mind anyway), about the nature and evolution of the universe. I am willing to mostly accept the standard theory of the universe and its evolution (Big bang and expansion), however, when 95% of the universe is still undetectable, even after years of searching with our most advanced instruments, it doesn’t boost my confidence very much. Lingering in the recesses of my mind is the elegant “constant creation” theory proposed by Fred Hoyle. For those who are a bit skeptical, another theory has been proposed to explain away the “95%-of-the-universe-is-undetectable-for-years-on-end” problem. This one, proposed by mathematicians, claims a large wave in space-time is making distant galaxies appear to speed up.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Freeze, Space

Wow it is COLLLLD outside!!!!! I had to put the flip flops in the closet tonight. Were we really at 70 just yesterday?

Winds chills at 6 were in the 30′s! Unbelieveable. I have to admit I am just not ready for the real cold temps, I like gradual decrease.  I know lots of people can’t wait for winter and snow, but I am holding for a few more nice days.  I do love snow though, because I enjoy many winter sports.  Anyways enough cold talk.. today was a fun filled day. I was able to speak to the Kindergarten and First Graders at St. John’s Lutheran School here in Wausau.  They were very adorable and already knew there cloud types!

Besides the clouds and cold temps it was WINDY! Here are the peak gusts from throughout the day:

Stevens Point 33

Arbor Vitae 35

Rhinelander 36

Phillips 38

Medford 39

Marshfield 40

Eagle River 40

Wausau 43

Antigo 43

Also we have a new sky cam up in downtown Wausau on the Dudley Tower! Be sure to check it out on the newscasts.  When we have a link up on the web we will share it with you. 

Bundle Up! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Viewer pictures, Winter Weather

Off the topic… I have to tell you about one of the most painful experiences I have ever had..no lie.  I might be one the only idiots who would do this, but for those who wear contacts listen up.  Over the weekend I made the mistake of using disinfectant solution like it was typical saline solution…so when I put my contacts in after they soaked in the hydrogen peroxide based solution…it felt a little more like I put a jalapeno pepper in my eye…..oh man was it bad and it’s still bad!  Yup I am an idiot.  So it’s glasses again for me this week.  I’m at work today but Kristen will be doing the shows because I’m lookin pretty rough…

Well I don’t have to tell ya, but Fall has certainly arrived.  High temperatures today topped out only in the lower 50′s.  Then when you combine a stiff 40 mph wind out of the northwest and some light showers, you got yourself a crummy day.  Tomorrow will be a little bit better but as the winds calm down and skies clear a bit tomorrow night, we will then probably see the coldest temperatures so far this season.  A Freeze Watch has been issued for the Northwoods.  I wouldn’t be surprised if a frost Advisory was eventually issued for the rest of the area.  Tomorrow night will definitely be one of those nights you will want to cover up the tomatoes. 

Some of you already had your first freeze of the season.  On August 31st several record low temperatures were set with lows in the 30′s and even a couple upper 20′s.  Tomorrow night’s freeze will be a little more in line with the timing of the first freeze for most.

Here is a link to the average area first freezes or just click on the map.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Freeze

Special Note: If you or someone you know uses the WAOW phone forecast service – the recorded forecast – the number has changed. Mark this down: The new number is 715-843-9250.

I was honored to be a judge for the roast beef cooking contest and had a wonderful time. Many thanks to the Minocqua area Chamber of Commerce. They put together a great event and it looked like everyone was having fun. I have a few pictures from the event.

WRJO Cook

The first picture is of the 5 judges who toured downtown sampling and judging the beef. Starting from the left we have Matt Benz (WJFW), Me (Justin), Kristyn Allen (WJFW), Don (Minocqua Resident), and Chris Wooldrige (WFHR).

The Lions Beef

The second picture is of the cook at the WRJO booth in full Beef-A-Rama costume. The third picture is of a creatively decorated roast beef cooked by the Lions club of Minocqua.

Cow Costumes

The roast beef is a “lion”.  The fourth picture is of some revelers in cow costumes. The 5th picture is of me being “attacked” by a black bear. This was at the booth of the Black Bear Lodge. 

Black Bear Attack

The 6th picture is of the Camp Arawak royal beef presentation. The 7th picture is a Wisconsin Badger themed competitor. The 8th picture is of the parade route. A lot of people were out enjoying the festivities.

Camp Arawak Beef

One thing I noticed on my trip up there was that there was quite a bit of Fall color in the forest.

Badgers Win!

There were some patches of forest that were easily over 50% turned. I don’t know about you but I usually see the best color early in the Fall color season. I like to view the contrast of the bright color with the green that is still present on some of the trees.

Parade Route

Sometimes it seems that if I wait until the colors are at their peak, then I half of the trees have already lost their leaves while the other half are in color.  It also seems to depend on the type of forest. Some locations turn early and some late. If you wanted to go out and see the Fall color this week on Wednesday and Thursday (2 days which are looking quite nice), you will no doubt find some very good color in the northwoods and a few spots in central Wisconsin as well.

Early Fall Color

The September drought is probably assisting in the early color. A hard frost on Wednesday morning will also bring out a bit more color early this season. Unfortunately, conditions do not look too good for viewing this weekend (Saturday and Sunday look mostly cloudy with a few light showers). Thankfully we will still have a good 10 days after this weekend for enjoying Autumn’s colorful show.

Speaking of the dry weather, a follow up on our chances of breaking the record for the driest September ever in Wausau. Roy Eckberg of the NWS Green Bay, informs me that 0.43″ in 1952 is indeed the record for the driest September ever. This will soon be eclipsed by September of 2009. So far this month we only have 0.13 inches of rain with a few more hundredths possible today.

Posted under Drought, Fall Color, Viewer pictures

We had strong to severe storms move through our Northen counties this afternoon and evening.  Some of the storms produced strong winds up to 50 mph with hail up to .25″.  Brief moderate to heavy downpours accompanied the strongest cells.  We had a warning in Taylor county from a storm that was able to produce winds over 60 mph.   Although we do not want to see the strong winds we sure need any rain we can get!

As of today we have only seen .08″ of an inch of rain in Wausau.  Depending on how much we see over the next 3 days we could very likely go down as the driest Sept ever!  Justin emailed the NWS about records and mentioned the dry Sept in his blog a few days ago.  They were nice enough to send us some records back.   We need to receive just under .50″ to not break the driest Sept!  Take a look at the chart below:

If you notice number 7 is last year(2008) when we only received 1.33″.  So depending on what we see tonight and tomorrow will depend on what number we end up on the list.  I will update this blog over the next couple days.

I want to also share this very neat link.  You can look at panoramic views of places all over the world!! I know some of these places I may never get a chance to see but looking at the view is like actually being there! The one I have the link set to is Mount Everest.  Talk about Beautiful. Make sure to put it in full screen for the best view!

Last but not least…a Wind Advisory will be in effect through Monday night.  We could see gusts up to 45 mph so make sure to buckle down anything you may still have outdoors!

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Records, Severe Weather, Travel

Watch out, cool air is coming our way!

A strong cold front is going to push into the area on Sunday.  Tomorrow we will still be affected by the low pressure system spinning over the central plains.  This will mean clouds holding on with a few light scattered showers possible.  The activity should be hit or miss.  I think mostly cloudy skies will dominate although there may be a few peaks of sunshine here and there.  We will see a short dry period late Saturday through Sunday morning then the first main cold front of fall kicks our way. 

The front should move through Sunday afternoon/evening and bring big changes to Wisconsin.  Associated with the front is a strong low which means that the pressure gradient will be tight.  This will correlate to very windy conditions.  Winds could gust to 30 mph late Sunday into Monday.  Considering winds have been very light for most of the month of Sept it will be noticeable different.  The front will also drop highs about 15 degrees from Sunday to Monday.  The highs on Monday compared to the past few weeks will feel much different.  Highs on Monday will be closer to our lows through much of the month!

So hold onto your hats, grab your jackets, Fall has arrived!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Uncategorized

Here is something I haven’t remarked about much over the last few months. The online table of monthly tornado statistics maintained by the SPC. This is a side effect of the very calm weather we have had in the upper Midwest, which in turn was a side effect of the cool and dry conditions that persisted for most of the warm season. It seems as though there haven’t been many tornadoes at all in the U.S. this year. This would be a false perception. The chart shows the tornado count at about normal for the country (850 confirmed through June). So perception twists reality in this case. Don’t worry though, the StormTrak 9 weather team is not getting complacent. We have upgraded our diagnostic tools and warning systems and stand prepared to deliver the critical severe weather information you need at a moments notice. Having a couple years with relatively little severe weather has not relaxed our commitment. We know as well as you know that the weather goes in cycles. Next year might be the year we break out of our 7 year drought. Severe weather might again become a more common event and we will be prepared.

The lack of severe weather usually means we have less storms and less rainfall and that has been the case so far this year. We were close to breaking the record for the all-time driest July in Wausau, and we are currently on pace to break the record for the driest September ever. According to our records that go back to 1940, the driest September ever in Wausau occurred in 1952 when we received only 0.43 inches. I have contacted the NWS to see if they have precipitation records that go back to the late 1800s. As of now we have only recorded 0.05 inches of rain this month. We do have a couple chances of rain over the weekend. The heaviest rain will fall this evening when there could be a quarter inch. Some off-and-on light showers could form on Saturday but they will not produce more than a few hundredths of an inch. A cold front moving through on Sunday will produce a chance of thunderstorms but again rain amounts will likely be a quarter inch or less. Breaking the record will be a close call. I’ll update you again next week.

Remember to check the WAOW-TV Friday Football Forecast tonight before you head out to the game. This is a new super-useful feature on WAOW.com.

Alternative Energy News:

In all the talk about AGW and environmental Armageddon coming in the next few decades, I have wondered why more of a focus hasn’t been put on auto racing, motorcycle racing, airplane racing, what-have-you. After all, these sports are designed to burn enormous amounts of fossil fuels. I would tend to think that environmentalists would be haranguing NASCAR and-the-like to no end. Now that electric cars are coming on to the scene, I have wondered when we will see electric races instead of fossil fuel races. Someone else was wondering this as well. In the article, I found out that a specific e-motorcycle race is being planned for 2010. That is cool! I know many racing purists will claim that the rumble of the engine and shaking of the earth that is common with souped-up combustion engines could never be replaced. However, e-vehicles have their own type of excitement. For one, the engines deliver more torque so there might be more tire smoke coming from burning rubber and more fine control the around hairpin curves of a road course. Also, racing with e-vehicles will blunt the environmental criticism that is sure to come.

Have a nice weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Drought, Records, Severe Weather