I am getting a little tired of reading all the doom-and-gloom AGW stories in the media recently. As the Copenhagen Conference draws nearer, it will only get worse, so I will try to focus on more positive things.

Remember, before I left for Europe, I mentioned that I would be gone during the annual sea-ice minimum in the northern hemisphere. This is something that is closely watched and generally generates a media frenzy when it gets quite low. What happened this year? The sea-ice was the third lowest on record. What is interesting is that the sea-ice has been increasing year over year since 2007. After reading so many reports on how positive feedback cycles were going to accelerate the loss of sea-ice, I find it surprising that we seem to be going in the opposite direction. Perhaps there is a mechanism that is pushing things in the opposite direction. If El Nino sticks around through the winter, I wonder if that will affect the arctic sea-ice. I am not aware of a connection between the two, but the last two years we had La Nina during the winter and the sea-ice increased. Anyway, more sea-ice is good news (as long as it is not part of a new ice age…lol).

For those worried about carbon emissions, there is more good news. New methods for burying carbon underground are in development. This particular approach would pressurize power plant effluent into a liquid stream of CO2 and pump it underground. Some people are worried about pumping CO2 underground, but at least there are options.

How about this? Direct drive could make wind turbines cheaper to maintain. GE is pushing to use direct drive in offshore wind turbines.

Floating manmade islands/piers, in rivers could generate electricity for cities and also serve as new green/park space for residents. When it comes to energy, there are a lot of new ideas.

Data centers (for the internet) are using a growing share of the world’s energy resources, however, a new trend in computing called “cloud computing” – where you store your data in a server instead of in your computer at your house, could lead to much more efficient operation. A new data center constructed by Yahoo in New York will use one quarter of the energy that their older data center’s use.

A little side detour in to space news: It is looking increasingly likely that there is water on the moon. Data from several different spacecraft are building the case for water and this is good news for any future potential moon bases.

And now what I would like to call time wasting links. These are some cool photo galleries for those who are interested in science and nature.

A photo gallery of glaciers as they appear from space.

Crazy pictures of the big Australian dust storm.

Some cool impact craters found around the globe.

New visiualization techniques help scientists understand complex and large data sets.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Viewer pictures

Obviously the weather story so far this month has been warm and dry.  A lot of people have been saying to me…”We didn’t see a stretch like this through the entire summer”.  Well in some ways that is definitely true.  On the 12th through the 15th of September we rattled off 4 days in a row of 80 degree temperatures.  We didn’t do that one time during the month of July.  This warm stretch is only second to some heat we sawduring the second week of August, when we topped out at 87 on the 14th.

Now here is the biggest kicker… this afternoon I added up some numbers and came up with this…

So far this month of September we have averaged high temperatures of 76.3.  This is a degree warmer than the average high temperatures for both the month of July(75.3) and August(75.2)…unreal!  Then when you add sunny skies to almost all the days…September has been hard to beat.

Off the subject…did anyone see pics yet of that 30 point buck shot in Fond Du Lac Co.?!?!  Are you serious?  Wow…if not check it out!!!!!!

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Monthly Recap

And another thing about the whole AGW situation (I am still riled up from yesterday), is the hypocrisy. Not only do the proposed solutions take a bite out of individual rights and freedom, they also require average people to sacrifice…a lot. Here is an article from earlier this week suggesting people not take “traveling” vacations in order to save the environment.  Carbon taxes, cap-n-trade, and the whole panoply of proposed regulation that descends from “on high” is squarely aimed at regular folks like you and me. And don’t fall for the propaganda that only the “evil corporations and power companies” are going to be taxed. I think we have all lived long enough to know those costs are almost always 100% distributed to end users (me and you). Sacrificing for the greater good is fine. The problem is that those who are going to force me and you to live more humbly are obscenely rich and/or in positions of power. They will never feel the negative effects of carbon taxes. Nearly all of the people travelling to the Copenhagen climate change conference are politicians, professors, environmentalists whose attendance is being paid for by taxpayers or an NGO. They don’t get hit by the taxes. I would be more accepting of carbon taxes or other regulatory schemes if they actually fell as hard on the rich and powerful (who are pushing these things) as they will on us. Do you think Al Gore would be affected by $5 or $10 per gallon of gas?Do you think Leonardo DeCaprio or Robert Redford will ever have to fret over paying an extra couple hundred worth of taxes for a plane ticket (if they ever need to buy a ticket, most of them ride in private jets)?  Not a chance. It is nice that they are concerned but for crying out loud, at they should at least think for a second about what these policies will do to average people. If the obscenely wealthy Al Gore agreed to pay $200 per gallon of gas while the rest of us paid $5, that would be more acceptable to me. If the filthy rich Kennedy’s paid $500,000 for a plane ticket while the rest of us paid $1,000, then ok. Don’t hold your breath. They will never advocate policies that truly endanger their privileged status or high standard of living. They won’t make any real sacrifices.

As I have mentioned before, we can solve this theorized problem like every other problem that has ever faced humanity – through voluntary cooperation and innovation. We have never cowered from problems. We have never regressed. We don’t have to give up our standard of living. We don’t have to give up our freedoms. Most importantly, we don’t have to give up our dreams and desires.

Unfortunately because of the hyperbolic fear-mongering, some people are giving up on their dreams and desires. I have seen multiple postings in online forums where someone laments the fact that we are doomed, and that their life and their children’s will be fraught with suffering. I recently reported here in the weather blog about attitudes of elementary school children. It was a poll, and I can’t remember the exact stats, but a full third or half of the respondents thought the earth would not “be around” when they grew up – because of AGW. It is getting out of control. Warnings are most useful when they are based on reality and increasingly the AGW “tales” are drifting into fantasy-land IMHO.

On the positive side of things, how about a tour of recent alternative energy developments? Electric cars will only become a reality if the price comes down. Thankfully, the recent popularity of hybrids and some EVs, is bringing down the price of batteries. This article points to trends that will cut the cost of the average lithium battery by half over the next decade or so. Some new research indicates that nanotube springs could hold as much energy as a typical battery. Project BetterPlace wants 100,000 EVs on the road by 2016. I think it will be more than that because of the rising price of oil. Jay Leno is also getting in on the act by having guests drive a “green car”. How about this electric motor that is lighter AND produces more torque? A lighter vehicle means more miles per charge! Not only are lithium-ion batteries getting cheaper but more powerful lithium-air batteries continue to be tested.

What about wind power? New morphing blade designs could lead to better performance and a longer working life. A recent analysis concluded that China has enough open land and wind to replace all of their coal fired electricity plants. I have to wonder if there really is that much available land, but at least this analysis points to the potential.

In nuclear power a new hot fusion technique is being tested here in the U.S. Don’t forget about cold fusion either. Even though it has experienced a rough ride so far and insiders say it is an extremely difficult problem to crack (anyway, nowhere near as easy as it seemed back in 1989), there could be some breakthroughs relatively soon. Here is an interview with one of the cold fusion pioneers about how cold fusion experimentation is gaining more acceptance.

I gathered all of these articles over the course of just the last few days. People are doing great things. The next millionaire and billionaire entrepreneurs are out there inventing the future and saving the environment. We will all be better off, if heavy-handed AGW regulations do not get in their way,

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change

Over the last 8 days, some spots around Atlanta picked up over a foot of rain.  The heavy rains have caused flooding in the major cities urban core.  Over 8 people have died in the floods.  The non-stop heavy rain has been caused by a stalled upper low over the southeast.  This system is cut off from the jet stream, so besides a wiggle here in there it hasn’t moved for about a week.  Here is some of the coverage through cnn.

Also check out some official rainfall totals by following ….this link.  The heaviest of rain has fallen in a town called KENNESAW….how about 20 inches!!!!

A chance of storms continue the next several days, but it looks like they will catch a nice break tonight in Atlanta as the main area of heavy rain has formed well off to the west in Alabama and Mississippi.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Uncategorized

I saw an intesresting picture of Saturn.  It was taken by the Cassini orbiter.  This is a rare picture because it only happens every 15 years! During the equinox the rings of Saturn almost disappear.  Check it out!

Yes today is fall but it apparently felt more like winter for some! Snow fell in many higher elevations out west including Wyoming, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and Utah! They actually have Winter Storm Warnings in Colorado… unreal! They could see 6 to 16 inches in the higher elevations above 7000 feet! Places below 5000 will just see a chilly rain.  The foothills of Denver already say 3 inches. It can stay that far west for me right now!

Check out this link to local snowfall totals…

I bet skiers are happy…Colorado’s Loveland resort already turned on their snow making machines because of the cold temps!

Here is an article from the Denver Post. 

 Taken in Crested Butte, Co.

Happy Fall! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Space, Winter Weather

The latest long range computer models have arrived and not to much has changed.

Warm trend indicated for Dec-Jan-Feb.

The main trend is for a high chance of warmer than normal temperatures in the upper midwest during the heart of winter. This outlook is certainly bolstered by the presence of El Nino. If the El Nino remains moderate throughout the winter then it is quite certain we will have above normal temps. If El Nino tends more toward the weak side then the cool-phase PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) could keep our average winter time temps this year around the normal range. I am going to assume thatEl Nino remains the same strength as it is now (weak to moderate). In this case I would expect the average temps this winter to be above normal. This does not however mean that the winter will be a wash and that no fun will be had by winter enthusiasts. What usually happens is that we have relatively long periods of mild weather punctuated by shorter periods of heavy snow and/or cold.

No Trend for October

So if we have a couple big snowstorms and a short period of cold weather early in the winter season (late November or in December) that could set us up pretty good for winter sports, including snowmobiling, even if conditions turn mild later on.

In the short term, the CPC models give us equal chances of above or below normal temps and precipitation during the month of October.

In contrast, the Farmer’s Almanac is forecasting dry and bitterly cold temperatures.

2009-2010 Farmer

I noticed the term “bitterly” cold was used, instead of “very cold”, which in my mind means substantially below normal temps for the winter – perhaps record setting. We will revisit this picture periodically during the winter to see how it pans out.

AGW News:

Since blogging about science and weather in the present day invariably requires one to comment about AGW theories/news/predictions, I find it useful to elucidate my position on the subject from time to time. Perusing my various writings throughout the years might lead to a little confusion. In fact, I ended up on some “AGW skeptics” lists even though I have never been asked to join or be listed. This probably happened because of my criticism of far-future AGW predictions and proposed solutions to theoretical AGW problems, not from any outright and complete rejection of the data and physical science. Those who have listened to me from time-to-time from as early as the mid 1990s know that I have always held that human activity have some effect on the climate but that it is less than half, only a fraction of what happens through natural action. This is not based on rigorous scientific analysis, but more of a subjective tally based on all the material I have studied, papers I have read, and long term trends I have analyzed. It is only semi-objective. Also, there is the known fact that natural fluctuations in CO2 from season to season dwarf the amounts human activity contributes. The AGW argument is that the slow accumulation of CO2, even if it is not on par with the changes nature induces, is enough to radically alter the climate.

The main objections I have are with the “proposed solutions” and the “fear-mongering” about what will happen in 2100 or even further out. That is what gets me riled up. It seems nearly every proposal for combatting AGW requires a gross violation of individual freedom and property rights. This does not have to be the case. If we just put our heads together and work on new technology, we could remove the theoretical “dangerous” excess CO2. This would allow progress to continue. No need to give up our standard of living. On the other point, the “fear-mongering”, I have been chronicling some of the more extreme statements coming from AGW theorists and environmentalists over the last couple of years. These are based on computer modeling of AGW and CO2 levels that are most certainly overstated. No can model predict how much fossil fuel humans will be using in 2100 nor how new technology and energy sources will affect the climate in 2100. We can give it a good guess, but a guess it all it is. Warnings are good, but they don’t necessarily have to be the worst case scenario nearly every time – as is the case with AGW scenarios. Scaring the bejeezus out of people can lead to seriously bad irrational policy-making.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, CPC Outlook, ENSO Update

Tomorrow officially begins fall as it is the Autumnal Equinox.  I found a pretty thorough article about what an equinox actually is with lots of links on the web page.  Although it is thought that day and night are equally long that is not actually correct, they are close but not completely equal. The equal day/night is actually dependent on the latitude at which you live. The word equinox though is derived from a Latin word which does means equal night. 

During the equinox the sun is vertically above one equator point called the subpolar point.  Tomorrow the time occurs for us at 4:18 pm.    

Happy Fall, even though it won’t feel like it!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Records, Science

As promised here are few more pictures from my European trip.

The River Cam in Cambridge England

After looking through the collection, I found that I did not have a lot of the German countryside. Most of my pictures taken out the train window were in the Netherlands which is very flat.

Flat Terrain, Netherlands

There were plenty of farms but not much scenery. I attempted to take pictures of the Alps in southern Germany but the air was hazy/smoggy and you can only see them in the distance if you examine the photograph closely (click on the photos for a larger version). The lake in the photos (Lake Starnberg) was southwest of Munich by about 20 miles and was very nice. Check the location here on google maps.

Bavarian Alps in the Distance

It is in the lower left hand corner. I took a few pictures of the churches in Munich, something that it is famous for, and a few pictures of the “street scenes”.

Pier on Starnberg Lake

 The buildings and street scenes in the Hague were not a remarkable, but the city sure felt comfortable. It seemed like I was in a large American city. Nymphenburg Palace (in Munich) was the most beautiful location was saw. The North Sea was interesting but it was a little too windy to enjoy.

Street Scene, The Hague

Street Scene in Munich

AGW News:

A few years ago I was chastised for claiming that the Kyoto treaty was never meant for serious reductions of CO2 from the atmosphere, but rather it was designed as a transfer of wealth from developed nations (particularly the US) to less developed nations. Today I feel more vindicated than ever as the new climate negotiations in Copenhagen approach. Here is an article today that argues for carbon equality across the world’s population – that every human should have the same carbon budget. Here is the choice quote from the article:

“Big emitters like the US would only be able to meet their target by buying unused emissions from poorer nations that have large populations but low per-capita emissions. For example, India and Brazil’s allowances would last 88 and 46 years respectively at current rates. That imbalance has benefits, says the council, because the money transferred would help poorer nations to improve their living standards using low-carbon technology such as wind and solar electricity generation.”

The basic idea is that the U.S., Europe, and Canada, and the like will have to either give up their wealth or drastically lower their standard of living – otherwise we are staring down the apocalypse. “Apocalypse?!” you say. Mr. Loew, aren’t you going a little overboard there. Not at all. As you know I have chronicled the disaster predictions from genuine scientists (such as over 6 billion people dying and the earth literally being torn apart) over the last couple of years. Now, just in time for the Copenhagen meeting a new movie: The Age of Stupid. Which is a semi-documentary which shows apocolyptic scenarios of cities flooding and burning. In any case, even if the U.S. and other developed nations did transfer most of their wealth to poorer nations, it would not likely raise the living standrds very much or for very long. Most underdeveloped nations are run by dictators or corrupt governments. Giving money to them will only line the pockets of those in power. Throughout history we have seen this time and time and time again, and it looks like we are going to make the same mistake….again. Alternatively, what has been proven (over and over again) to raise the standard of living is a free market and equality under the law. Hans Rosling demonstrates this using stunning visuals in this TED talk. Notice, all the nations that adopt a market economy see their fortunes rise through the years, while the others remain stagnant.

Let us assume for the moment that the climate models are completely correct and that all the worst scenarios are going to happen unless there is some sort of action. Then why the heck are international leaders wasting time in Copenhagen trying to figure out which countries to punish and how severely. If the predictions are 100% accurate (they are not, but for this exercise we will assume they are), then we are already utterly screwed by the amount of carbon dioxide already in the air (according to leading climate scientists). Setting some sort-of emission targets will do nothing to save us. In addition, everyone knows that industries and nations will find ways to skirt the emissions targets. It is just plain idiocy. Why punish the countries that are most likely to lead the green energy revolution or develop technology to take carbon out of the air. If we assume the predictions are true, then THE ONLY logical choice is to develop methods of taking carbon out of the air, yet this is barely on the table. It should be front and center! Which brings me back to the first point. It seems the climate “negotiators” are more interested in controlling lives and distributing wealth than devising real solutions.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Viewer pictures

Rain, rain come our way! One thing we have not seen alot of the last three weeks is rain.  In fact we have see a whopping .02″ in Wausau and these were very isolated showers.  I don’t think anybody has seen more than a few hundredths across the entire area since Sept began almost three weeks ago. 

I was feeling uneasy about rain chances yesterday because models were keeping all the dynamics associated with the system tonight to the east of us. But… the models today are looking more hopefully at least for some of us. 

The image below is at 7 am tomorrow morning.  You can see that mainly eastern Wisconsin is getting the bulk of the activity but I think we actually might see a shower for our counties east of highway 51.  This system will move out by late morning and continue to move north into Canada.  This will mean a break in the showers for all of us. 

After the first low pushes out we will begin to look back to the west for our next low and cold front.  I am going to say there is a slight chance Monday evening to see a shower west but better chances will come overnight into Tuesday.  The graphic below is at 1 pm on Tuesday.  I think the entire area will see the best rain chances on Tuesday when the front rolls through, and yes we could use the rain!  There may be a lingering shower late Tuesday but all the showers should be pushed out by Wednesday.

Maybe if we do a rain dance we will have better rain chances!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Storms, Uncategorized

Lately I have been having the chance to spend sometime in the Eagle River area.  I have been trying to find different trails, beaches and any outdoor activities to do especially with the summer like temps and sunshine we have been having.  I enjoy biking and running and because of that I have been exploring new areas.  Yesterday I found a neat bike trail that was built from Eagle River to Three Lakes.  It actually begins a few miles outside of the city of Eagle River but there are plans for it to be extended into Eagle River with the “next phase”. 

There are no motorized vehicles allowed on the trail but you can bike, hike or run.  There were even a few people out with their pups and I saw people of all ages..  It is not a strenous trail as it is mostly flat with a few rolling hills.  The whole trail back in forth is just over 17 miles.  You can add or subtract by doing a few different things.  You can add miles by starting at Sundstein Rd in Eagle River or by going around Three Lakes.  You can easily go less miles by turning around at any point.  An easy turn around point is from the start off of Sundstein to where it hits Hwy 45.  This is also the route for cross country skiing or skating which you could enjoy when the white stuff begins to cover the grounds!

For more information check out http://www.3eagletrail.com/index.html

Here is a map of the trail:

If you live close hope you can check it out! Have a great weekend and enjoy the weather!

Posted under Travel