I hope everyone had themselves a wonderful and long Thanksgiving weekend.  I had a great weekend with family and friends. …oh so stuffed from turkey, potatoes, pie, and of course a beverage here and there. 

On my drive back to Wausau today from the Milwaukee area, I was just so amazed by all the green grass sticking around.  The warm November has really thrown me through a loop.  Most golf courses I drove by still had the flags in the holes and were open for business!!  When the official numbers come in tonight…November will be a top 5 warmest on record.  I just saw at tweet from Jeff Last the WCM at the N.W.S. Office in Green Bay..stating that El Paso, TX picked up 2.1″ of snow today, which is more snow than Rhinelander has received all month.

The Northwoods did pick up a little snow today…anywhere from a dusting to an inch.  The Northwoods will have another shot for snow on Wednesday with a similar system, and there could be lake effect snows far north on Thursday and Friday.  We will also closely watch what could be a very strong low to the south.  Right now the forcasted track has the storm completely missing us. 

Some good news for skiers!!!………. Granite Peak has been able to make a little bit of snow over the last couple of days and temperatures later this week will be ideal for snow making.

Time to get back to work!!!

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Records, Winter Weather

Looking back at Novemember we were almost above average every single day.  Only 3 days out of 30 ( not including today which we most likely will stay in the 30′s for the fourth) we saw a high temp in the 30′s.  I can’t wait to see the final numbers, it seems we are on this up and down pattern for the last 3 months.  So what does Dec have in store for us? Of course we keep talking about El Nino and I know Justin blogged about the above average forecast for Dec from the Climate Prediction Center.  But as we always emphaize there will still be a few cold spells through out the winter. I think this week we might actually see the coldest air that we have seen yet this season, in other words, it might actually feel like Winter is here!

Looking at some of the 850 plots the first is Thursday night. You can see a real dip in the cold air, all the way down to Texas.

The models keep the cold air around through the weekend and even into early next week. 

So looking at data it looks like the coldest highs and low will be moving on in this week, that is some good news for all those winter enthusaists! On top of that, we should see some lake effect snow in the northwoods.  Today’s snow totals should be froma trace of an inch to an inch, isolated areas could see more.   

Hope you have a wonderful day! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Storms, Winter Weather

The World-Wide Lightning Location Network can monitor about 30% of all lightning strikes around the world.  They currently have 46 monitoring sites that pick up the strikes.  By next year they plan to have 60 and hope to pick up all strikes around the world.  They  believe this will be a great forecast tool for many events including hurricanes, volcanoes and for commercial aircraft.  They also want to check out if the little amount of nitrogen oxides that are released during a strike affect air quality. 

The monitoring systems are spaced out 1864 miles from each other.  The pulse from the strike can usually travel the distance and reach one of the monitoring sites.  Since hurricanes are far out at sea they believe this will help to monitor the storm especially if the intensity is increasing.  From their research with Emily, Katrina and Rita in 2005 they noticed that lightning spikes when the hurricane is going to strengthen or weaken.  Another big element has been with volcanoes, they noticed that there is alot of strikes inside an ash cloud from an eruption that can affect commercial planes.     

Every second around the world there are 63 lightning strikes. 

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Science, Severe Weather, Weather History

Good evening! I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving and you were able to be thankful for something in your life.  I know I was!I was able to spend the day with my whole family something that happens about once a year.  On top of it all I received some of my favorite weather- sunny and warm! Now that Thanksgiving is over many of begin our preperations for Christmas.  I bet some people even checked off a few people on their Christmas lists today with all the sales.  I was reading this article while in the airport today and really got a kick out of it.  It is about why everyone relatesChristmas to snow and why people obsesses about having a white Christmas. 

Many people say that we dream about a white Christmas because it is drilled into our heads when we see images of Santa at the North Pole or because of stories and songs.  One climatologist says if we stopped singing and writing about it would things change? An interesting thought. 

For us here in Wausau there is a 93% chance we will have 1 inch of snow on the ground.  There is a 54% chance that we will have 5 inches and a 25% that we will have 10 inches or more. 

For other states or to take the White Christmas Test check out this website.

Will you be dreaming of a White Christmas?

Have a great night and Happy Thanksgiving! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Science, Travel, Weather History, Winter Weather

It is interesting how the Fall has gone so far. It is a study in contrast and persistence.

WI drought conditions

September was the most beautiful month of the year – weatherwise. Nearly every day had high temps in the 70s with partly or mostly sunny skies. It was beautiful but the downside was that it was also the record driest September in Wausau – exacerbating the drought. In October the weather turned cool and wet. Many days were cloudy and did not give usgood light for enjoying the Fall colors. It was one of the coolest and wettest Octobers on record.

Slight Improvement in CA

In Marshfield it WAS the wettest October on record. Then came November. It is hard to say that the weather was beautiful (not like “September beautiful”) but it was pretty darn good for this late in the year. It might end up being the second warmest November on record (I’ll have final November numbers next week Tuesday). Unfortunately it was much drier than normal. That meant no snow for winter enthusiasts and deer hunters. Because of the mild temps, today was the first day of snowmaking activity on Rib Mountain. Now that the overnight low temperatures are colder, Granite Peak expects to have a couple slopes open not this weekend but next weekend. So how is our drought situation? The US Drought Monitor indicates the drought in Wisconsin has improved slightly since last week’s report.

AZ drought worsens

It won’t get much better over the next couple of weeks because no major precipitation is in the works. In other parts of the country, it is nice to see a slight improvement in California as well. The one state that has seen an increase in drought conditions is Arizona. Thankfully, there is a moderate El Nino. This should enhance the chances of above normal rain and snow in Arizona this winter.

Alternative Energy News:

I have been following the development of osmotic power plants for the last year or so and one is fianlly being tested in Norway. This type of powerplant uses osmotic pressure – like that found between salt water and fresh water – to generate electricity. At maximum theoretical development, this type of power plant could deliver 10% of the world’s electricity needs. The drawback – environmental contamination – and not the type you are used to hearing about. The central piece of an osmotic power plant is a membrane through which ions can pass. This membrane is expensive and could be easily clogged by dirt, silt, mud, algae, bacteria, and whatnot. If it needs to be replaced of constantly cleaned, then the profitability of this type of power plant goes down dramatically.

Another industry that shows some promise is cellulosic ethanol, but some people think that start-ups promising to deliver ethanol for less than a dollar a gallon are not dealing in reality. The company producing the most cellulosic ethanol in the largest volumes (POET) has calculated the entire cost of their operation and claims it costs $2.35per gallon. They hope to bring the cost below $2 per gallon soon. It would take some major improvement in efficiency in order bring the cost down to $1 a gallon.

Speaking of price, the average price of installing solar panels in southern California is $8 per watt. Pretty pricey. Now customers in San Diego are banding together to get volume pricing on installations. This has brought the average cost in one community down to about $5.29 per watt – a nice improvement. If this can be duplicated in other parts of the country then maybe more people will adopt solar for the future.

A solar airplane is being tested and prepped for a non-stop flight around the world! That would be a great accomplishment but I doubt there would be many commercial applications. The airplane travels way to slow and can carry only minute amounts of cargo. We will probably have to wait for more dramatic improvement in batteries and solar cells before widespread use of electric airplanes is commonplace.

In wind energy, a new study of vertical wind turbines shows that certain geometrical arrangements can enhance the power production of a group of turbines. It works on the same principle on which schools of fish enhance their group motion. The normal wind turbines we see are horizontal turbines. These are normally more efficient. Vertical turbines arranged close to each other – such as described in the article - could deliver more power per unit area. Considering how expensive land is, this could make some sense in the future.

And how about a little visual treat on this Black Friday. Here is an image of islands disrupting a layer of clouds. If you have ever doubted that the atmosphere moves in fluid motion (like water), this should dispel those doubts.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Drought, Science

For whatever reason, our internet service at the TV station is very very slow today, making it difficult to update a lot of our web content, including this blog post. Actually, this is fairly typical for a holiday. ISPs in the U.S. are typically thinly staffed and personnel (the B-team) are trying to work from home or on the road and thus service suffers. I find government websites are the ones most likely to go down during the holidays. So I’ll be keeping it short today. Looks like tranquil weather through the weekend – cool and breezy today, partly sunny and mild on Friday and Saturday, not much chance of snow until the middle of next week.

On the Thanksgiving Day theme, how about the real story of Thanksgiving. Up until a couple years ago I never knew about the famine before the feast, . Now I say thanks for freedom.

Happy Thanksgiving Day! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

Happy Thanksgiving Eve to you all.  What a wonderful time of the year.  A time to share with loved ones, family and friends.  If you are doing any traveling tonight or during the day Thursday, I have some good news.  We are not expecting much in the way of accumulating snow.  We still have a light rain falling right now across northcentral Wisconsin.  A few snowflakes will start to mix in by around midnight.  Any snow will be very light and temperatures should stay above freezing through most of the night so any accumulation will be very minor and most roadways will stay just wet.  The bulk of the storm system is already moving out.  A few flurries may stick around through midday Thursday.

Temperatures will finally retreat back close to normal on Thanksgiving.  Here are some interesting weather stats from past Thanksgivings.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grb&storyid=42996&source=0

Have a wonderful Holiday everyone and forget about your diet for just one day and PIG OUT!!!

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Winter Weather

It still looks like pretty good travel weather across most of the nation for today and tomorrow. The most likely airport delays will be in South Florida where several inches of rain could fall. For tomorrow the only spots that could experience minor delays due to the weather are Chicago and Seattle. The roadways should be pretty good around Wisconsin and the upper Midwestas well. The only snow will be an inch or two in the southern half of Wisconsin tonight and around northern Illinois tomorrow. Since temperatures will still be above freezing, the snow should melt pretty quick and not accumulate on the roadways. Friday and Saturday are looking dry and partly sunny with highs temps around 40 – maybe even reaching the low to mid 40s if there is enough sunshine.

AGW News:

Now on to the latest AGW news. I hope everyone is prepared for the deluge of “global warming” news over the next couple of weeks revolving around the Copenhagen negotiations. Most of it will have an “end of the world” flavor. Here are some recent headlines.

• African conflicts spurred by warming (global warming)
• Warmer means windier on Lake Superior
• (Thawing) Arctic has potential to alter earth’s climate.
• World on track for 6 degrees of extra heat.
• Ocean’s uptake of human-made carbon slowing.
• In Nod to Global Warming, Navy Preps for ‘Ice Free’ Arctic.
• Climate diagnosis is stark message for politicians (environmental Armageddon is upon us)
• World’s last bastion of stable ice now thawing (in Antarctica)

The last headline is the one I would like to focus on. In contrast to the very dire nature of the headline, the article itself presents differing opinions. Using GRACE satellite data, Jianli Chen of the University of Texas Austin estimates the east antarctic ice sheet is losing 5 billion tonnes of ice per year and it might be as much as 57 billion tonnes. The estimate is derived from changes in the gravity field of the ice sheet. Later in the article, it is noted that the margin of error in the measurement could be anywhere from 5 billion to 109 billion tonnes per year, essentially making the estimate of ice loss statistically meaningless. Clark Wilson (Center for Space Research) goes on to say that GRACE cannot differentiate gravitational changes from ice loss versus post glacial rebound of the land mass. So why the intentionally scary headline when the data is not yet conclusive? Perhaps the climate email hackfrom earlier this week gives us some insight. It was found that some climate researchers were intentionally trying to exclude data and publications that did not support the “accepted” AGW theory. Are some science journalists attempting the same thing – constructing headlines to back the leading theory and scare people into action? Or maybe the headlines are meant to just grab attention for more readers – they are in a media business after all. More readers means more money and a headline stating the last bit of ice on the planet is melting will get more readers than a more scientifically accurate headline such as “Is the East Antarctic Ice Sheet Melting? Experts Debate”.

Even though there is pervasive non-scientific discrimination against data, theories, and researchers that challenge the leading AGW theory (as shown by the hacked emails earlier this week), some articles do make it into the mainstream – so there is not a complete blackout. Here are a couple:

• Controversial New Climate Change Data: Is Earth’s Capacity to Absorb CO₂ Much Greater Than Expected?
• Antarctica Glacier Retreat Creates New Carbon Dioxide Store; Has Beneficial Impact on Climate Change

I am afraid I am growing immune to all the environmental Armageddon predictions and headlines lately. This tends to happen after 20 years of hearing the world is going to end. Back when the Kyoto treaty was negotiated we heard the same thing; if we don’t do something immediately the world will be destroyed. Maybe if I lived in the arctic, I would be more alarmed because apparently the warming has been greater there. Living in Wisconsin, things look ok. Despite the warnings that the environment was being destroyed year after year for 20 years, the landscape in Wisconsin looks about the same. The crops grow, the animals live, the water flows, etc. I guess the only change is the recent dry weather. We are now in our 7th year in a row (in Wausau) with below normal rainfall. This could be an effect of AGW but we have been through similar dry periods in the past so nothing conclusive can be said.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought

The days have been warm but the nights have been warmer.  Low temperatures were 20 degrees warmer than what would be normal for this date.  Baring an unlikely dip in temperatures before midnight, we will likely break one new record and tie another in central Wisconsin.  This stretch of warm weather has been incredible.  Antigo is on target to break a record high minimum temperature for today.  The current low temperature of 39 today in Antigo is warmer than the old record of 38 set back in 1908.  And the current low in Marshfield of 41 is tied with the record set in 2001.

Here is a list of today’s very mild low temperatures and respective records..

Wausau:    41 (47,2001)    *Marshfield: 41 (41, 2001)    Wisc. Rapids: 42  (48,2001)

Stevens Point:  41  (44,1908)    Rhinelander:  38  (44, 2001)    Merrill:  40  (42, 1908)

*Antigo:  39  (38, 1908)

Colder times are ahead…but not a deep freeze.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Records

For all of you planning on traveling during the Wednesday through Sunday time frame, the weather looks fairly decent. We will have some light rain developing tonight and continuing through Wednesday evening. Late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning some of that rain will change over to snow and there could be a couple inches accumulation. The highest chance of accumulating snow will be in the far southern part of the area – south of Wisconsin Rapids and Stevens Point. So if you are heading south Wednesday night or Thursday morning, there could be a little trouble, but not much. During the time frame when the rain and snow will be falling, the temperature will remain above freezing so most of the snow should melt off the roads pretty quick. By Thursday afternoon the weather should be dry and it should stay that way through Saturday. Saturday night and into Sunday there is another chance of light rain or snow showers but it doesn’t look like anything significant at this point. As far as flying goes, weather related delays are a possibility Wednesday night and Thursday morning if you are flying through Chicago or Detroit. Other places in the nation that could experience flight delays on Thanksgiving day (due to weather) are the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington) and New England.

I suppose I should say something about the recent breaking news about the email hack that exposed climate researchers private emails. Read more here or here. In my view, the emails in the second link are a little more damaging than the emails most people have been focusing on. What has hit the internet blogs so far is an email where one climate scientist talks about “hiding the decline”. This could be something taken out of legitimate context and not chicanery on the part of one or two researchers. The emails in the WSJ link show a pattern of climate scientists colluding to exclude or confront data and researchers who find data that counters the established AGW theory. The data should speak for itself. I have often seen people in blogs and in online discussion assert that the typical government paid researcher is completely unbiased and does not collude to accept or reject data and is not influenced in anyway by non-scientific outside political pressures. The reality is that scientists do a pretty good job at remaining unbiased but they are still human. As the WSJ email expose’ demonstrates, the researchers will go to some length to make sure their favorite theory gets prime billing.

Of course, if you want to play devil’s advocate, you could say that any action to bolster the prevailing AGW theory is justified because the entire earth and every living thing is in peril, anyway that is what we have found when compiling the AGW list.

Knowing what I do about societal and technological trends, I have come to the conclusion that the earth and everything on it is not in peril (from AGW anyway). There could be periodic problems with droughts, storms, floods, heat, etc… but I don’t think those problems will be much wider or overwhelming than similar past problems. Humans have experienced decades-long droughts and hundreds of feet of sea level rise in the past. Present human society is more connected and adaptable and thus should be able to confront climate and energy problems in a more efficient and effective  manner (caveat: as long as governments of the world are more open, not oppressive, and respect individual freedom).

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Winter Weather