Air Quality Advisory

An AIR QUALITY ADVISORY is in effect through midday today for Taylor county, Lincoln county, Langlade county, and all areas  to the south. Air quality advisories are issued by the DNR when particulate pollution reaches certain critical levels in the atmosphere where they affect human health. The people most at risk are the elderly and people with breathing problems. These groups should not do strenuous activities outdoors on days with advisories. The primary meteorological reason we have an air quality advisory is that there has not been  much wind over the last couple of days and light winds continue today. Without much wind, there is nothing  to whisk the polluted air from the region and it builds up to unhealthy levels.

The root cause of the particulate pollution is something different - it is our fossil fuel economy. Let me tell you a story. When I first started driving to Wausau to work at WSAW in 1995, I was living in Nekoosa (then Wisconsin Rapids a bit later). During my drive to work on the county highways and the freeway (I-39) I might see 2 or 3 vehicles in the early morning hours, 2 to 3 am. I would usually encounter 1 or 2 vehicles on Grand Avenue all the way from Rothschild to downtown. Now I drive (or ride bicycle) only 3 miles through town and it is typical to encounter a dozen or more vehicles. There are more people and there are more cars on the road. The big city smog and pollution is creeping up on us. If we follow the same path of growth that other areas of the country, then we are in for more roads, more sub-divisions, more highway interchanges, more concrete, and of course more pollution. I could go on about this pollution feedback cycle and how hard it is to break out of  it, but I already did back when I penned the concrete life: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3. Part one is probably the best. Scratch that, I tried to go back and link to the original articles but I think they got nuked when we switched blogging software. That is a shame because they were interesting. I also got a little depressed writing them because it is unlikely that the suburban sprawling polluting culture can be reversed anytime soon. The technological trends that give hope are alternative energy and information technology. The more people that can make a living from home using the internet, the less people that will need to be on the road. The more we can use solar power to drive the economy the less fossil fuel pollution will occur. One trend I am following particularly close is electric vehicle (EV) development. If the U.S. is going to hold on the to suburban concrete/driving culture then EVs are the best near term hope. Yes, I know that the electricity to run electric cars would still be generated mostly from fossil fuels, however, it is much easier to filter and clean-up a few thousand power plants than hundreds of millions of tailpipes. If more people drove electric cars, there would be less particulate pollution in our cities.

At this point in the blog entry I would usually link to a bunch of new positive EV articles. Alas, I don’t have any, but I have accumulated a bunch of various alternative energy news stories. So here ya go:

A proposed superconducting superstation could connectthe three big energy grids in the U.S. to newer renewable energy sources. It is hard to imagine a ring of super conducting wires (that need to be refrigerated – extremely cold) that needs 60 square kilometers of land could ever be economical, but apparently it has been studied, and perhaps some higher temperature superconducting wire (like ambient temperature) will be invented in the near future. I like the idea, but I get a queasy feeling about huge projects like this. They have long time frames to implement and usually have cost overruns. Also, such a large important part of the nation’s energy infrastructure would be a prime target for terrorists and hard to defend.

More people are talking about autonomous cars. I can’t wait for this development. Not only would it reduce pollution but reduce accidents as well. I would feel much safer on the road with a bunch of computer drivers (including my own car) than with human drivers.

Harnessing waste heat could double the battery life for laptops and cell phones. This has been a dream of many engineers for decades and now that we can manipulate the structure of devices at the nanoscale, it is becoming a reality.

Another thin film solar company Solextant claims to have made a breakthrough in solar cell design that could bring thin films above the 10% efficiency mark. This would be a dramatic improvement, not only from the efficiency standpoint but from the cost standpoint. Thin film solar cells can be made more cheaply using roll-to-roll or ink jet printing technology.

Even the ethanol business could get a boost. A company (ZeaChem) claims it can increase the yield of cellulosic ethanol production by 50%. ZeaChem still has a ways to go to prove the advantages of its process but it is good to see some new ideas (something other than the yeast/grain ethanol situation).

And finally a follow-up on the Sandia laboratory effort to create fossil fuel from CO2 using sunlight as an energy source. They have created a demonstration unit.It still has a ways to go to prove market viability, but hooray for Sandia anyway. At least it can be shown that we can make fuel out of CO2. If this process is a smashing success then maybe power plants would not have to sequester CO2 underground.

Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Pollution

Snow Could Threaten Travel???

The very mild weather continues tonight.  The low temperatures expected to be around 40 will flirt with the record high minimum temperatures for tomorrow.  So far this month of November we have averaged a high of 51 degrees and a low of 31 degrees.  When you add up all the numbers, our average temperature has been 41.1, which is 6.5 degrees above the norm….this number is very significant.  We are on pace for at least a 10 ten warmest November on record.

The weather pattern will change a bit as Thanksgiving nears.  The next couple of days we will watch a storm system develop across the plains.  We’ll first have a chance of rain on Tuesday then possibly a rain and snow mix on Wednesday.  As this area of low pressure strengthens, colder air will also move in from the northwest.  Possibly even cold enough for the precipitation to change to all snow.  The latest forecast model runs show the potential for accumulating snow Wednesday evening.  The NAM in particular favors an accumulating snow event.  If everything falls in place, we could be talking about a couple wet and heavy inches.  Not a major storm, but certainly a concern when you consider the timing.  As we know, the evening before Thanksgiving is a huge travel time.  So if you have travel plans late Wednesday, definitely stay up with the forecast just in case this system pans out.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Winter Weather

This post was written by bniznansky on November 22, 2009

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Dense Fog, Winter Returns This Week????

The hunters were probably not to happy with the fog this morning.  It was very dense in some areas with visibilities less than a quarter of a mile.  Unfortunately it didn’t break early either it actually lasted till the late morning even some places still have reduced visibilities through the afternoon.  Tonight we will be dealing with the fog once again.  The only good news is that we should have a little wind which would help to stir up the air a bit.  In areas that are prone to the dense fog- valleys, areas near lakes and rivers, it could still be very dense tomorrow morning.  The second issue with today was a low level stratus deck that did not want to break.  This made it feel overcast through the day even though there was hazy sunshine at times.  It also kept the temperatures cooler than forecasted. 

Looking ahead to this week….

Many changes are going to happen for the holiday work week.  We are going to see plenty of chances for rain and even snow and the temperatures are going to really cool down.  A storm system is going to move into our area by midweek.  This means it could be an added nuisance on one of the busiest travel days of the year, Wednesday.  If you take a look at the images below you see the precip over our area and also the blues on the temp map which means some much cooler air will arrive withthis system.  Highs by the end of the week could only be in the mid 30′s.  That is actually closer to average though for the end of November.   

Along with that we will see other disturbances that keep the chance for precip in from Monday through Thanksgiving day.  After we get the low out of the area we will be able to see a short break, hopefully coming for the holiday weekend! The last real snowfall was on Oct 10 and 12th for most of us so we might see a return almost a month and a half later!

I am going to be heading home to Florida for Thanksgiving so I want to wish everyone a great holiday! Hope you can find lots to be thankful for!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Travel, Uncategorized, Winter Weather

This post was written by kconnolly on November 21, 2009

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Spirit Moves, Fog Potential

Hunting forecast update: Something new has entered the forecast and it could affect the hunt Saturday morning in at least a few spots – dense fog. The probability of dense fog will be the highest in areas that had the heaviest rain on Thursday. I expect the clouds to gradually break-up tonight and those areas that have some clearing could see the visibilities drop to a quarter mile or below. So be careful driving on the roads Saturday morning and be extra safe in the woods if you are in an area with fog. The fastest way to ruin the hunting season is to have a shooting related accident – so be careful. Other than the potential for fog the forecast is about the same as I have been stating all week. We should have partly or mostly sunny skies during the afternoon on Saturday with a south-southeast wind about 5-10 mph. On Sunday the southeast wind will be about 10 mph. Clouds will be on the increase again on Sunday and there is a slight chance of showers late in the afternoon. Temps will be well above normal. A few spots in the northwoods could start our in the 20s on Saturday morning but most locations will be around 32. Highs around 50 will be common on Saturday afternoon. Low temps on Sunday morning will be a couple degrees above freezing for most areas and high temps should hit the mid to upper 40s. The weather should be good for the Packer game as well. For the third home game in a row, the game time temperature (at noon) should be in the mid to upper 40s and skies should be partly cloudy.

The latest long range climate outlooks have been released.

December Projection

December Projection

The computers are forecasting a higher chance of above normal temperatures than below normal temperature for our area – during December and for the Dec-Jan-Feb period. The news is not all bad though. Even though it looks like the moderate El Nino will continue through December and much of the winter, we also have an active Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Pacific which could bring a bit stronger storm systems in the West coast, a couple of which could bring some snow and cold air to the Midwest during December. You can read the monthly discussion here.

Dec-Jan-Feb Temp Forecast

Dec-Jan-Feb Temp Forecast

You can see all of the monthly graphics here. To me, it still looks like we are in for a warmer than normal Winter (at least in the beginning) and poorer snow conditions than most years. We will likely have a couple periods of colder air and some heavier snow but these will be less frequent than the milder stretches of weather. So snowlover’s don’t give up hope, even during the super El Nino of 1997-98 we had a couple weeks in January when we had colder weather and good snow conditions. Also, if El Nino wanes after December then we might have a “good” end to the winter with better snow conditions.

In the shorter term, it looks like our first chance for accumulating snow this month will come on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It is still too early to forecast amounts but there will be a significant storm moving across the central part of the nation and it could track close enough to Wisconsin to bring a few inches. Stayed tuned to Brian and Kristen’s forecasts over the weekend on this potential storm that could affect holiday travel. As of now, the weather on Thanksgiving day looks ok. It looks colder (highs in the 30s) but mainly dry.

Spirit Rover Update:

Earlier this week I reported that NASA/JPL is now attempting to get Spirit unstuck from a sand trap on Mars. The first try didn’t go so well as the tilt of the Rover caused an abrupt abortion of the attempt. The second attempt to move Spirit resulted in success measured in millimeters. Contollers instructed the rover to spin its wheels enough that if it was travelling normally would cause it to travel about 8 feet. This resulted in a few millimeters of movement – which is better than nothing. They will continue to move slowly in coming weeks.

Staying on the space theme, a couple industry observers offer differing opinions on how much progress (if at all) we will observe in human spaceflight over the next decade or two. I agree that if NASA drops the ball on human space flight then private industry will step in to fill the demand. There are enough rich scientists and visionaries on the planet to propel private human spaceflight in coming years.

Have a good weekend! Hunters stay safe while out in the woods! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, ENSO Update, Space, Winter Weather

This post was written by jloew on November 20, 2009

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More Utah Meteor!!!

Wow…the video coming in from the meteor viewed yesterday in Utah is just awesome.  Justin told  you about it this morning but I thought I would share some more video I found.

Check out some of the links…

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8367760.stm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjUO56W1KP8&feature=player_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqB-1_AXOTg&feature=player_embedded

And some good news coverage…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1ZKm2Cru4E&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gcWeLGNLgA

Crazy…it literally lit the sky to daytime light levels!!!

Scientists feel it will be possible to trace where the meteor may have landed by using all of the video available.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Science, Space

This post was written by bniznansky on November 19, 2009

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Utah Fireball

It is still looking a little too warm for the opening weekend of the gun deer hunting season, although we have dealt with warmer conditions in the recent past. I think it was near the beginning of this decade that we had high temps in the low 60s on opening day. This year will not be that warm but it will be the warmest in several years. I have upped my forecast for Saturday to 49 (in Wausau) an some spots could top 50. The only cold weather will be Saturday morning around daybreak when temps could drop into the 20s in the northwoods. On Sunday morning much of the area will be at 32 or a little above. More clouds will move in for Sunday and there is a 30% chance of drizzle or light showers during the afternoon. High temps on Sunday should reach the mid 40s. As far as the wind goes, it will be nearly calm Saturday morning then a light southeast wind will develop during the afternoon. The south to southeast wind will pick up to about 10 mph on Sunday.

The most interesting weather could develop early next week. We could have our first significant snow of November. Right now I am forecasting a chance of rain on Monday and a chance of snow on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, our long term computer models are divergent. One of them shows the active weather completely missing the area. So it is wait and see. Stay tuned for updates here in the blog and on Newsline 9.

We discussed the Leonid meteor shower earlier this week and it did not turn out very spectacular here in Wisconsin but in Utah they had quite a show – not from the Leonid meteor but from a stray large meteor. Experts estimate the meteor that burned up in the atmosphere was about as large as an oven and moving at 80,000 mph. When it burned up/exploded in the sky over Utah it was bright enough to turn night into day. You can see video of the event here. These events happen more often than people know because they often times occur during the day when they cannot be seen as easily or they happen over the oceans or in remote areas where no one is there to observe. Thankfully, larger asteroids have not yet hit the earth. Astronomers are busy cataloging large near earth objects – ones that could impact the earth – in order to identify anything dangerous and plan for a way to protect the earth.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Space, Winter Weather

This post was written by jloew on November 19, 2009

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Winter???

Taking a look ahead with the long range computer models, we could get our first blast of winter right around Thanksgiving.  The forecast models have an area of low pressure developing across the plains late Sunday, and will intensify as it tracks across the Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday.  As the low tightens, a strong northwest flow could develop on the systems backside.  A strong upper level trough will then sag across the midwest for the first time in almost a month. 

By Thanksgiving, the GFSx computer model forecasts 850 mb temps around +8.  With out any sun, surface high temperatures would not rise above freezing.  Now this is a very long range forecast, so don’t put too much weight on it…especially since we are experiencing El Nino conditions.  El Nino conditions tend to keep our pattern more zonal(west to east) with would totally minimize this cold snap.  So we could very well end up staying in the pattern were currently in. 

But that’s what a blog is for I guess…to toss around uncertain ideas.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Winter Weather

This post was written by bniznansky on November 18, 2009

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Coldest Winter Temperature?

Before I forget, I just wanted to update “the coldest temperature of the season thus far”. Land O’ Lakes had a low of 13 on Monday and then beat that mark by one degree with a low of 12 on Tuesday morning. That is the coldest temperature from the FAA/ASOS reporting stations from across the state so far this cold season. Does anyone have a guess as to what the coldest temperature of the entire winter season will be? (In Wisconsin at the standardreporting sites). Even though we have a moderate El Nino right now and this would tend to keep things warmer than normal, there is no guarantee El Nino will last all winter. Also we sometimes have some blasts of cold air that interrupt the milder pattern. Even during the mega El Nino of 1997-98 we had a low of -15 in Wausau on one morning in January. That being said, I think the lowest this year will not be as low as the last couple of winter’s which I think was in the -35 to -40 range. I am going with -29. What is your guess?

The hunting weekend forecast still looks good. Partly to mostly sunny skies should develop on Saturday afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40s. There will be increasing clouds on Sunday and a slight chance of showers late in the afternoon. High temps should be in the 40s again on Sunday. A light southeast wind should prevail on Saturday and get a little stronger on Sunday. The next chance of snow looks to be the middle of next week at the earliest.

Did you ever write something and then thought better about posting it? That is what happened to the rest of this blog entry. It was some great sarcastic writing about Copenhagen, AGW, regulations, and solutions and ended up in the realm of the Voluntary Human Extinction Movement. Now deleted. I didn’t feel like dealing with negative reactions today. So how about this:

Go Packers!

Much less controversial.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Winter Weather

This post was written by jloew on November 18, 2009

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Zapping Clouds for Rain?? Better Gas Mileage

First there was “cloud seeding” in China now the Venezuela president is trying to zap the clouds to produce rain.  Venezuela’s president Hugo Chavez is going to join a team from Cuba who will fly into “bomb clouds” that they will zap to hopefully produce rain.  The nation is in a severe drought and going to the measure of three minutes showers to save water.  They are blaming the water shortage on the El Nino which is causing critically low water levels at reservoirs and also impacting their electricity since they produce alot of their electricity from hydroelectric projects.

Recently I have been wondering what I can do to get better gas mileage?  I know as winter approaches it is only going to get worse and for some reason I seem to be getting less miles to the gallon then before!  I searched and found this article and I thought it had some good tips!  I know I live by one of the them- cruise control, I will put on the cruise even for a very short time.  I think it helps me stay at one speed and makes driving much easier. 

Across the US we saw the third coldest October on record.  But across the world we saw the 6th warmest October, including sea and land temperatures.  For all the stats and details you can check out the article that was released today on NOAA.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Alternative Energy, Environment, Science, Uncategorized

This post was written by kconnolly on November 17, 2009

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Hunting Forecast, Electric Cars

First a look at the deer hunting forecast for this weekend. It looks about the same as it did yesterday. I am forecasting high temps in the 40s on both Saturday and Sunday. Low temps should be in the upper 20s to low 30s on both mornings, some areas might even be a couple degrees above freezing. I expect partly sunny skies to develop on Saturday afternoon and then increasing clouds again on Sunday. The wind should be out of the southeast on Saturday and Sunday – about 5 to 10 mph on Saturday and 10 to 15 mph on Sunday. I am still calling for a slight chance of showers late Sunday afternoon.

On the subject of deer hunting, I found this link in our weather office bookmarks titled “Our Deer Hunting Heritage“. I hate to say it but the fellow is correct when he says “Our whitetail heritage is in great jeopardy. As deer hunters we currently exist as an endangered cultural minority fast fading into the dustbins of history.” This might seem little surprising coming from a fellow living in Barneveld Wisconsin because Wisconsin has one of the largest deer hunting traditions in the nation (and maybe the world), however he is right on the money. The deer hunting heritage is fading as fast and in a similar fashion as our farming heritage. Human society grows more urban and disconnected with nature every year. The recent “locally grown/organic” fad is just a blip on the overall trend. Some people are sad to see the loss of our heritage of country living that includes farming and hunting, as am I, but I cannot blame people who are moving in a new direction. Throughout human history each generation has tried to make the world better for the next generation and this usually involves making life easier. I grew up on a dairy farm and it was not an easy life. I appreciated my experience and I am better off for it, but it was not easy. I woke up and milked cows before heading off to school. In the present day, the number of kids laboring an hour or two before school is nearly zero, and they are happy about it. The only animals most kids encounter are cats and dogs. So it should come as no surprise that younger generations do not hunt nor do they understand the cultural heritage of hunting. The disconnect is not as bad in Wisconsin (as referenced earlier) but it is happening. Unfortunately for hunters, there is likely no turning back. I fully expect the decline to continue and there is little to do about it. I also expect hunting to be banned in the not too distant future (maybe a decade or so). The hunting population is only a tiny fraction of society as a whole, and seeing as we live in a representative republic….well, you do the math. Enjoy the heritage, the camaraderie, and the challenge while it lasts.

Alternative Energy News:

I enjoy keeping track of alternative energy developments as a way to counteract all the negativity that comes with AGW and Peak Oil news. While the overall trends of alternative energy development remain very positive, it is not all rosy all the time. Consider these recent reports about the solar energy industry: German solar panel producers are initiating lay-offs due to cooling demand and a supply glut is causing price erosion in the solar market. The supply glut could be good news for consumers, as prices for PVs will come down, but it can be tough on the producers. On a positive note, it seems solar manufacturers are suffering supply/demand cycles similar to the semiconductor industry. Does this mean they will experience the same growth and efficiency gains as the semiconductor industry experienced over the last couple decades? Maybe. I hope so.

For those of you who a resting some hope on nuclear fission to move us into a new energy future – here is some cold water for you: private stocks of fissionable material could run out by 2013. That is a pretty scary prediction – if true. We would still have nuclear material in bombs and government stockpiles, but that would not last very long either. Perhaps the lack of fissionable material and the increasing price of oil will lead to faster solar development.

Even in the world of electric cars, there are more bumps in the road. BMW, the company that leased the Mini E (an electric mini cooper) as a test in the U.S. has ran into many operational difficulties. The individual cars are operating fairly well. The problem comes with government bureaucracy and infrastructure. Getting the correct and desirable plug in and voltage for your electric car can be tricky. Also, there are 40,000 local electric authorities and 3,300 utilities to deal with in the U.S. when trying to connect to the grid. That’s a lot of headaches.

Bureaucracy is a problem but sometimes business decisions can doom a company as well. Have you ever wondered why the Aptera has been delayed? Here is a recent article describing the management change at Aptera that induced a redesign of the car.Seems the main point of contention was that the windows should roll down. Besides making it easier to stop at a drive through restaurant, this would also keep a person cool if the air conditioner would happen to break. The original founders of Aptera wanted to sell the original model this year. A car company veteran who was hired as CEO demanded the design changes and this has delayed the roll-out of the vehicle. It also resulted in the founders of Aptera getting canned. They are gone. While it is typical for outside investors to oust the original founders (typically people who do not have good business acumen), I don’t think this is good news for Aptera. They already have the trouble of over-coming the quirky design and now the roll-out will be delayed to the point where other competitors will gain a foothold in the market ahead of them.

There is better news for the Nissan Leaf. It is currently on a nationwide tour of the U.S. Sadly, the closest the tour will get to us is Detroit.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Peak Oil

This post was written by jloew on November 17, 2009

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