Hunting forecast update: Something new has entered the forecast and it could affect the hunt Saturday morning in at least a few spots – dense fog. The probability of dense fog will be the highest in areas that had the heaviest rain on Thursday. I expect the clouds to gradually break-up tonight and those areas that have some clearing could see the visibilities drop to a quarter mile or below. So be careful driving on the roads Saturday morning and be extra safe in the woods if you are in an area with fog. The fastest way to ruin the hunting season is to have a shooting related accident – so be careful. Other than the potential for fog the forecast is about the same as I have been stating all week. We should have partly or mostly sunny skies during the afternoon on Saturday with a south-southeast wind about 5-10 mph. On Sunday the southeast wind will be about 10 mph. Clouds will be on the increase again on Sunday and there is a slight chance of showers late in the afternoon. Temps will be well above normal. A few spots in the northwoods could start our in the 20s on Saturday morning but most locations will be around 32. Highs around 50 will be common on Saturday afternoon. Low temps on Sunday morning will be a couple degrees above freezing for most areas and high temps should hit the mid to upper 40s. The weather should be good for the Packer game as well. For the third home game in a row, the game time temperature (at noon) should be in the mid to upper 40s and skies should be partly cloudy.

The latest long range climate outlooks have been released.

December Projection

The computers are forecasting a higher chance of above normal temperatures than below normal temperature for our area – during December and for the Dec-Jan-Feb period. The news is not all bad though. Even though it looks like the moderate El Nino will continue through December and much of the winter, we also have an active Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Pacific which could bring a bit stronger storm systems in the West coast, a couple of which could bring some snow and cold air to the Midwest during December. You can read the monthly discussion here.

Dec-Jan-Feb Temp Forecast

You can see all of the monthly graphics here. To me, it still looks like we are in for a warmer than normal Winter (at least in the beginning) and poorer snow conditions than most years. We will likely have a couple periods of colder air and some heavier snow but these will be less frequent than the milder stretches of weather. So snowlover’s don’t give up hope, even during the super El Nino of 1997-98 we had a couple weeks in January when we had colder weather and good snow conditions. Also, if El Nino wanes after December then we might have a “good” end to the winter with better snow conditions.

In the shorter term, it looks like our first chance for accumulating snow this month will come on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It is still too early to forecast amounts but there will be a significant storm moving across the central part of the nation and it could track close enough to Wisconsin to bring a few inches. Stayed tuned to Brian and Kristen’s forecasts over the weekend on this potential storm that could affect holiday travel. As of now, the weather on Thanksgiving day looks ok. It looks colder (highs in the 30s) but mainly dry.

Spirit Rover Update:

Earlier this week I reported that NASA/JPL is now attempting to get Spirit unstuck from a sand trap on Mars. The first try didn’t go so well as the tilt of the Rover caused an abrupt abortion of the attempt. The second attempt to move Spirit resulted in success measured in millimeters. Contollers instructed the rover to spin its wheels enough that if it was travelling normally would cause it to travel about 8 feet. This resulted in a few millimeters of movement – which is better than nothing. They will continue to move slowly in coming weeks.

Staying on the space theme, a couple industry observers offer differing opinions on how much progress (if at all) we will observe in human spaceflight over the next decade or two. I agree that if NASA drops the ball on human space flight then private industry will step in to fill the demand. There are enough rich scientists and visionaries on the planet to propel private human spaceflight in coming years.

Have a good weekend! Hunters stay safe while out in the woods! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, ENSO Update, Space, Winter Weather