I just want to write a quick post tonight to wish everyone a Very Merry Christmas!! Weather wise it sure was naughty but I hope that gave you more time to spend indoors with your loved ones.  I remember how nice the weather was last year, what a change this year! None the less I hope Santa was nice and everyone had safe travels.  Please still be careful through the weekend, the roadways are still going to be dangerous largely in part to all the melting we saw today again freezing. The off and on snow showers should stick around till Sunday 

I think it is always interesting to see how other people and countries celebrate Christmas. I love pictures and I enjoyed looking through this tonight.  The fifth one is actually taken only a few blocks from where I lived when I studied abroad in Dublin.

Again MERRY CHRISTMAS to all!!!!!!!! And to all a goodnight.

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Travel, Winter Weather

A brief update for this Christmas morning. Warm air has moved into the area and changed most of the precipitation over to rain. Rain will continue for most of the day, mixing with a little sleet or snow at times. It is still wet, windy, and icky outside but the worst threat – freezing rain/ice is over. The second worse threat – heavy snow – is over as well. Secondary roads will continue to be slushy and slippery but the main roads should be in ok conditions. Not good condition, but ok.

The National Weather Service has now issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for most of the area with only Price, Iron, and Ashland counties being under a WINTER STORM WARNING. In the Warning counties, there could yet be some sleet and freezing rain.

Some light snow will continue off-and-on tonight and over the weekend. Accumulations could be in inch or two in some spots. If you are hoping for some sunshine, it still looks like some should come around on Monday and Tuesday of next week. The next chance of light snow will be on Wednesday of next week. After high temps in the 30s today, it looks like mainly 20s for the weekend and next week.

Have a wonderful Christmas Day! Meteorologist Justin Loew. 8:10am, 25-Dec-2009

Posted under Winter Weather

It just keeps on coming! Right now looking at the radar there is not one area across the whole state that is dry.  The biggest issue has been what type of precip is falling, if you name it we more than likely are seeing it.  Through midnight we could see up to a half an inch of ice across the area. Remember that is the most dangerous type of weather to drive in.  If you don’t have to be out, take the time to enjoy it with your family and friends.  

This storm will continue through our Christmas weekend.  Each day we should begin to see a little less and eventually should clear the snow out by Monday. 

When all is said and done we will see varying accumulations:

2-5″ towards Waupaca and Shawano 

5-10″ including Wausau, Rhinelander and Tomahawk

10-15″ including Ashland and Phillips

By tomorrow afternoon we should see the mixed precip finally change over to all snow. 

For the latest on the storm check out our web video forecasts. 

On a happy note I enjoyed watching thisslideshow all about Santa’s. And this slideshow is amazing.  The different lights are so beautiful! I hope you enjoy them too!

Merry Christmas Eve everyone!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Storms, Travel, Winter Weather

First, continuing with the theme of year-end lists, here is an article from Popular Science profiling the top 100 innovations of 2009. It is rather long but does have a lot of cool innovations and inventions, along with great pictures.

For the more scientific among you, the top physics breakthroughs of the year.

No Drought Improvement

Also, the newest US Drought Monitor has been released and there is not much change anywhere in the country. Only Texas has seen a slight improvement in the small bit of remaining drought there. Here in Wisconsin we should see some improvement in the next could weeks once the precipitation from the current storm gets factored into the equation.

Speaking of the big storm, thinks look very similar to when I posted yesterday. As expected we did pick up 2 to 4 inches of snow overnight and it is currently mixing with sleet and freezing rain. The only change I have made is to increase the snow total for Wausau. I am now expecting the 2 to 5 inches of snow with significant sleet and ice to fall mainly east of Wausau. Around Wausau and to the west I am expecting 5 to 10 inches as temps in the lower atmosphere should be just cool enough to produce more snow than ice and sleet. So could we end up with 10 inches in Wausau? I still think it will be closer to the 5 inch range. Locations that receive 10 inches or more should be mostly west of Marathon county. The lightest ice and snow will be this afternoon then we will see the heavier precipitation pick up again tonight into Friday morning. Travel will be treacherous so drive slowly and carefully. A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for the entire area until 6pm Friday except for Oneida and Vilas counties where a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect. Some light snow will continue off-and-on over the weekend and there could be an additional inch or two accumulation.

Have a happy holiday season. Merry Christmas. Seasons greetings. Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Science, Winter Weather

Scroll down for the latest on the Christmas holiday storm.

First I would like to share a few year-end lists and articles. This is something we will see a lot of over the next week or so and I hope to provide my top ten weather events of the year in Northcentral Wisconsin next week as well. I am working on a top ten weather events of the decade (even though it is not technically the end of the decade, but I’ll play along), but that will take a little more time. I am unsure if I can get it done next week.

The year online. For those of you (geeks like me) who follow developments on the Internet, this is a good review article. You might find some new tools (like new search engines) to use as well.

Top science videos of the year(from newscientist.com). A lot of eye-candy in this review. Good for wasting time on your lunch break.

Looking ahead to the next year and beyond is also common this time of year and this article has broken the ice with a list of speculative technologies we might use in the near future.

For those of you who follow alternative energy developments (as this blog does from time-to-time), here is an article on how the business side of things developed in 2009. Perhaps some clues on where to invest in 2010.

Staying on the alternative energy theme, here are a few positive stories to round out 2009. After the gloom-and-doom of the Copenhagen conference and a year of economic woes, it is always nice to point out that progress continues.

First, a test of diesel hybrid delivery vans (with UPS) has found a 28% greater fuel efficiency over regular diesel vans. No doubt delivery companies will rapidly adopt more fuel efficient vehicles like this since a large portion of their revenue goes to purchase fuel. Apparently the diesel hybrids were also easier and cheaper to maintain.

Secondly, computer-controlled cars are getting closer to reality. I know a lot of people are very wary of computer controlled cars, but I can’t wait. Not only will roads be safer but driving will likely be more efficient. I have looked out at the American landscape in the last couple of years and have become depressed about future prospects of reducing the amount of gridlock, pollution, and concrete that fouls the ambiance of daily life. Autonomous vehicles might help turn the tide.

Lastly, arrays of nano-scale capacitor elements could be used to build batterieswith 2 to 10 times more energy density than today’s state-of-art lithium batteries. Batteries will be key to powering an alternative energy future and the current batteries don’t quite make the cut. Improvements are on the way, but this nanoscale structure could be a game-changer….if it works. It is only theoretical at this point. No working device has been built as of yet.

Storm Update:

It still looks about the same as what we were projecting yesterday. Northcentral Wisconsin will be on the warmer side of the storm and I expect that much of the area will receive a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Traveling could be very difficult late tonight, Thursday, and Friday as roads become icy. Freezing rain/ice is the worst case scenario in the winter. Not only does it make the roadways very dangerous, it isn’t as pretty as snow. If this big storm produced a foot of snow, traveling would still be difficult, but the scenery would be much prettier. Could you imagine a foot of new snow for Christmas Day! Kids could build snowmen or go sledding. Snow-filled pictures would make for wonderful future memories. Instead, we are likely to see a slushy mess in most of central Wisconsin. In the far north (Vilas, Price, Iron, and Ashland counties) and the far west (Clark and Taylor counties and around the Chippewa Valley) there should be more snow than slush/ice and some places could get up to a foot, but right now it does not look to be in the cards for most of central Wisconsin.

NAM 48 hour total liquid precip.

I know that that NWS is forecasting 8 to 12 inches of snow for Wausau, but my intuition and analyses just doesn’t jive with a foot of snow falling with this storm. The temps will be a little too warm. That being said, the NAM computer model is forecasting at least 1.5 inches of liquid precipitation for our area from tonight through 6am Friday! That is pretty amazing! If all of that liquid fell as snow, then we would have around 15 inches! Instead, I expect maybe .25 or .50 to fall as snow and the rest (.50 to 1.0 inches) to come as sleet or freezing rain.

The snow and freezing rain will begin tonight with an inch or two possible in some areas.

This mixture will continue during the day on Thursday with another inch or two possible. Thursday evening through Friday morning will be when the heaviest snow and freezing rain will fall. If you have to travel be sure to be off the roads after dark on Thursday night. The snow and freezing rain should rapidly taper off by late morning on Friday. We will still have a chance of snow showers Friday afternoon but I don’t expect more than an inch or so to accumulate in central Wisconsin. Some heavier snow could fall up around Crandon, Wabeno, and Three Lakes, but most locations should see a diminishing trend. Another inch or so could fall on Saturday as the winter storm weakens over the state.

For a detailed look at my snowfall projection map, take a look at the “Weather Show” on the weather page at waow.com – click here and then play the video that says “Weather Show December 23rd”. The snowfall potential map is a couple minutes in.

Be safe and get your last minute shopping done today instead of tomorrow. Allow A LOT of extra time to get to your destinations tomorrow. Drive slow and defensive.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Science, Travel, Winter Weather

Unlike the last storm, which was about as clear cut as it gets for heavy snow…the upcoming holiday system has a lot more to it.  This will likely turn out to be a long storm event with various waves of precipitation. 

The obvious big question will be precipitation type.  Cold air will be present top to bottom though the atmosphere when the first wave of precipitation moves in late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.  So initially the precipitation will be snow for all.  Snow will then continue through much of the day on Thursday….accumulating at least a few inches.  By late Thursday afternoon, even though we’ll still be below freezing at the surface, the temperatures aloft will really warm up.  That’s when I think locations in central Wisconsin will start to see a change over to freezing rain.  Icing will then be possible up to a quarter of an inch.  Just good ol’ snow will still continue across the far north and west. 

It is very possible that we enter a dry slot with the storm Thursday night.  If this occurs, all precipitation will come to an end for a while besides maybe a little bit a freezing drizzle.  

Oh but where not done yet…  By Christmas(Friday) cold air will makes its return aloft down to the surface.  We will likely then see another wave of predominately snow….likely another few inches. 

So as far as just snow goes…we’ll likely see anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of wet and heavy snow in Central Wisconsin.  The lighter amounts will be over our southeastern counties.  A good 6 to 9 inches of snow will be possible from say north and west of Medford.  The heaviest of snow with this system will fall over by the Twin Cities; possibly over a foot.

If you have travel plans, the best thing for you to do is to stay up with the forecast because a lot can change with the timing, precipitation type, and depending on when you leave.  Hopefully you’ll be able to time out one of the possible lull times with this system.  As far as traveling to surrounding big cities…as mentioned above the Twin Cities is going to get dumped on, where as Milwaukee will see the mix, but maybe even just plain rain for a while.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Winter Weather

First an update on the Christmas storm. Things have not changed much since yesterday except it looks like more of the area will have a slushy mixture of precipitation instead of snow. Around Marathon county and points to the south and east will likely see a couple inches of heavy wet snow mixed with a quarter to half inch of sleet and freezing rain. Along highway 8 and farther north as well as areas west of Marathon county will see mostly snow with 4 to 8 inches possible. No matter where the sleet vs. snow line develops, it will be difficult traveling for holiday get-togethers. The precipitation will begin during the late morning or around midday on Thursday and then become heavier Thursday night into Friday morning. Light snow will continue later Friday and into Saturday but accumulations will only be an inch or two during that time frame. Adjust your travel plans to make sure you have enough time to drive safely or adjust your routes and times. Also, check this blog, newsline 9, and WAOW.com for updates over the next couple of days.

Speaking of big winter storms, take a look at this picture of the aftermath of the big east coast blizzard. This was taken from space by a weather satellite and shows landform features around Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. The most interesting part of the image (IMO) is the shape of the Appalachian mountains.

AGW News:

Final words on the Copenhagen Climate conference. Here is a little review article with complaints that not enough got done. I didn’t expect much to be achieved because it is exceedingly difficult for 2 people to agree on anything much less 100 or so countries. What was not mentioned in many of the mainstream review articles is the focus on money and politics, instead of the environment. A widespread agreement fell apart because developed countries did not agree to give money to lesser developed countries. Some say the true color of environmentalists (red) was revealed through the speeches of several world dictators. Hugo Chavez (whose country is one of the world’s biggest oil-sellers) ripped capitalism and the U.S. during his speech and was received by thunderous applause by most of the audience. There is an old joke I hear from time-to-time that environmentalists are green on the outside (claim to care about the environment) but are red on the inside (communist revolution being their true agenda). I can’t say for sure if this is substantially true but it doesn’t look good when the most enthusiastic applause goes to a socialist dictator who used his climate speech to rail against capitalism and free markets. It makes it look like political/social revolution is the primary focus and AGW (global warming) and the environment come second, or third, or somewhere far down the line. I know there is an argument that capitalism is the root cause of AGW and a degrading environment, but this flies in the face of the evidence that the richest and most free nations are typically most concerned with developing clean energy and maintaining a clean environment. When the U.S was a developing nation, the forests were cut down and there was a lot of pollution of the air and water. Over the course of the last few decades people became more focused on maintaining a clean environment. The water and air quality in the U.S. has been increasing for the last 3 decades. There is now more forestland in the U.S than back in the late 1800s. Wealthy people choose a clean environment and free markets (and market reforms in general) have lifted more people out of poverty than anything else over the last century (see this video).

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Viewer pictures, Winter Weather

Today is the Winter solstice. It officially occurs at 11:47 a.m. It is when the sun’s rays are shining directly over the Tropic of Capricorn. It is the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. If you glance at the sun (if it comes out today) you will notice it is low in the sky, the lowest point of the year. Does it mean anything with respect to weather? No. The high temperature could be 50 today. This high temperature could be -10. There could be a blizzard or there could be rain. Nothing dramatic will happen at 11:47 a.m. The Winter solstice marks the beginning of ”astronomical” Winter. That is all. Ancient humans kept track of the position of the sun in the sky in order to help plan their activities and rudimentary agriculture. The position of the sun in the sky generally corresponded to the change of the seasons. The more data driven seasonal definition we use in the present day is based on temperature, and this makes sense. If you had to define the 4 seasons of a 12 month year, how would you do it? Would it make sense to determine the 3 coldest months of the year and call them Winter? That is what meteorologists do. December, January, and February are the coldest months of the year in the northern hemisphere. June, July, and August are the warmest three months of the year and we call them Summer. In between are Spring and Fall.

Some smart readers out there might wonder why January is typically the coldest month of the year, while the least amount of sunshine occurs in December. You would think the month with the least sun would be the coldest. This peculiar situation arises because the earth is about three quarters water. It takes a lot of energy to warm and cool water. At this time of year, the oceans still hold heat from the summer and they do not reach their coolest point until January. When the water temperature of the northern hemisphere reaches its lowest temp of the year is usually when we have the coldest weather of the year – which would be in January. The northern oceans are still quite cool in February but increasing sunshine tends to overpower the effect of the oceans and February normally ends up warmer than January. The opposite occurs in the summer. Because it takes a long time for the oceans to warm up, July is usually warmer than June even though June has more sunshine.

January Temp Forecast

So the solstice will not have much of an effect on our weather today – what about El Nino? Earlier this month we saw that El Nino was still at moderate strength which increases the chance that we will have above normal temps and below normal snowfall this winter. Now the latest CPC extended model projections have been issued and they depict the same trend – a greater chance of above normal temps than below normal temps. It is interesting to note that the January projection has backed off a little in the warmth department for our area. A couple months ago the projection showed most of Wisconsin in the 33% and even 40% greater than even odds for warm conditions. Now, the January forecast shows equal chances of above or below normal temps for much of the state with the warm anomaly farther west in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Click on the January-February-March (0.5 J-F-M 2010) forecast and then you will see the warm anomaly once again more squarely on Wisconsin.

Jan-Feb-Mar Temp Forecast

Our December has been pretty close to normal so far but might end up above normal because of milder weather this week. I am still hedging toward a bit warmer than normal weather in January and February (along with lower than normal snowfall). As long as El Nino remains moderate, it should keep extended periods of bitter cold away from Northcentral Wisconsin.

Bitter cold might stay away this week but heavy precipitation might not. A strong storm will be moving through the Midwest and it could mean some difficult traveling on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. There could be major flight delays on Thursday and Friday in Minneapolis, Des Moines, St Louis, Kansas City. Not so sure about Chicago at this point. It looks like temps will be warm enough in Chicago for mainly rain. What about our area? It is still too early to put any definitive numbers down, but a few inches of snow look possible in the northern and western part of the viewing area. At this point it looks like Wausau and points to the south and east could end up with a mixture of sleet, freezing rain, and snow. The slushiness could measure up to a couple inches which would make for difficult driving on area roadways. Stayed tuned to the blog and StormTrak9 for updated forecasts later this week.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, ENSO Update, Winter Weather

Mother nature may make getting to your holidays plans a little more difficult this year. 

We have been watching a storm that will move into the Midwest for the end of this week.  Of course it is still days away but one thing we know we will be seeing some snow from Thursday through Saturday.  There is also the possibility to see rain or a mixed precip but that would mainly stay to the south and east of us.

  The problems arise with the track of the storm.  It has flip flopped in past runs and has slowed down but it continuously gives us snow showers for Christmas Eve through the day after.  Since this is one of the busiest travel times of the year the National Weather Service in Green Bay has already issued a Special Weather Statement to get people aware of the impact this storm could have on Holiday travel.  It is still to early to give totals and where heavier amounts will fall but within the next 24 to 48 hours we should be able to begin narrowing it down more.

We will be watching this storm closely and make sure to give you the latest information. 

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Storms, Winter Weather

I was watching some of the coverage on the massive storm hitting the Mid-Atlantic states and the Northeast.  It is surely the blizzard so far this year breaking numerous records.  Thousands of people were without power from North Carolina to Washington DC. Numerous flights were cancelled at major airports in New York and DC.  Even the National Guard had to come out and rescue hundreds of stranded cars and passengers.

For more information on the Blizzard check out this link.

Although it has felt like Winter for almost a month now it actually officially begins on Monday.  I really liked this article about the Winter Solstice. On Dec 21st the top half of the planet which is where we are will face directly away from the sun.  This actually leaves Santa and his Reindeer in complete darkness! For the rest of us Monday will officially be the shortest day of the year.  The solstice is the day when the sun crosses the sky at its lowest trajectory in our hemisphere. 

An interesting note, the sun is closer to us during the winter than in the summer.  So why is so cold? It is because of the tilt of the Earth. 

Tomorrowwe will see an Alberta Clipper just brush us to the South.  This means a chance for light snow across the area with the best chance in southwestern counties.  Accumulations will be on the light side with most of us seeing at most an inch although isolated spots could see up to two inches.  The next major storm to effect the US will move in late in the week.  We will be watching this storm as it has the possibility to bring travel problems right around the holiday.  The latest trends are slowing the storm and moving it more south and east. 

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Science, Storms, Travel, Uncategorized, Winter Weather