Guess what? More snowmelt discussion today. Ok, all I need to do is remind everyone (if you were not checking the blog over the weekend), that the snow finally melted on May 29th (Saturday). It looks like we have 63 winners (preliminary count) who will be eligible to win the 5 big R-store gift cards. We will hold a drawing for 5th, 4th, and 3rd place on Tuesday (June 1st, and a drawing for #2 and #1 on Wednesday (June 2nd). Remember, everyone who does not win a gift card will get a car wash coupon from the R-stores of northcentral Wisconsin – now serving 22 locations. The other point in regards to the snowmelt contest is that once again, my blog posts might be a bit shorter this week because I will be typing up all the winner’s names for the drawing and for mailing out the coupons.

The best thing in the weather is that we had some nice rain last night. Here in Wausau the airport reported only 0.19 inches (preliminary) but just east of town and into parts of Shawano county radar estimated that over and inch fell. One viewer called in from Bevent and reported 0.80 inches of rain. Marianne in Scandinavia reported 0.50 inches. The eastern part of the area missed out on the rain last week so it was wonderful to see it fall in those areas last night. Even better is the fact that more rain is possible during the work week. Right now, I am calling for a 50% chance of rain and thunderstorms late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning and then a 30% chance of rain or storms Friday and Saturday. The weather pattern looks active enough that everyone should eventually end up with some rain this week.

Have a good Memorial Day! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under forecast, Snowmelt 2010

As Justin posted, snowmelt has officially ended.  It was an early one this year.   He told me last years date was June 24h, so almost a whole month later than this year.  I am sure the record breaking heat helped.  If you are one who hasn’t enjoyed the 80′s well you will be happy to know that a cold front is moving through the area and will drop our temps by 15 to 20 degrees this week.  The front is starting to produce showers around the area with a few storms in the mix.  Hopefully we can pick up a tenth to a quarter inch in the areas that see the storms.  Rain is desperately needed!

I was crunching some numbers from the past few months to see how far we are behind in 2010.  Here is what I came up with:

                             Normal          Measured        Deficit

January           1.09                    0.71                  -0.38

February         0.90                     0.40              -0.50

March               1.92                     0.63                -1.29

April                   2.84                    1.25                  -1.59

May(so far)      3.54                    1.78                 -1.76 

From looking at the first 5 months so far we are in a deficit of 5.52 inches of rain.  This is not including any rain that we may see tonight or into early on Monday.  It is amazing to see when you crunch the numbers just how much each months deficit adds up. 

We do have a chance to play catch up this week.  Models are looking quite active over the next seven days.  The showers tonight will end by Monday morning.   That will be good news for everyone who has outdoor plans on Memorial Day ( and I am sure that is almost everyone!)  We should see a short break before another front pushes through late Tuesday.   That means there will be another shot of rain from late Tuesday through early on Wednesday.  After that we could see a storm move in from the Plains for Thursday.  As of now it wants to take a more southerly track but still bring rain to our area from 29 to the south.  Since it is a few days the track could easily change.  If it move more north everyone would have a chance but if it continues more south we could strike out with no one seeing rain.  The final chance will come late Friday through the weekend. 

Lets just hope they pan out and we can make a dent in that 5 inches this week!

Have a great night and Memorial Day!

Kristen Connolly

Posted under Drought

Once again I found myself hiking up Rib Mountain on Saturday evening and this time the snow was gone.

No More Snow

Where the snow had resided just a few hours earlier there was now only a patch of wet cool ground. And so to the best of my observational abilities, May 29th is henceforth declared the last day of snow on Rib Mountain for 2010. We will mention the end of the contest on Wake-Up Wisconsin on Monday and have the drawings for the R-store gift cards on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Snowmelt 2010

Since my last blog was about the upcoming hurricane season I thought I would give a quick update. The National Hurricane Center released their tropical activity forecast on Thursday.  Here is what they are forecasting. 

• 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
• Normal is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and two major

In their words it should be an “active to extremely active” season.   2005 was the most active season with 28 named storms.  Since 1995 8 of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for most named storms.

For more information check out the article from NOAA.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Hurricanes, Tropics

Hi all. Here is the latest picture of the snow as of 2:30 pm Saturday afternoon. Getting tiny, I suspect it will be gone this evening.

Justin Loew

Posted under Snowmelt 2010

I finally have some pictures of the remaining snow on Rib Mountain – fresh off the presses, or perhaps the camera. The pictures were taken at about 8am this morning. As you can see there is still a pile about the size of a large dinner table and about 6 to 10 inches thick. That might seem like a lot but take a look at the second picture and you will see how big the pile was earlier in the week. The large area of brown ground used to define the edges of this particular pile of snow. The little wooden ramp-thingy was on top of the snow pile on Monday. So the snow continues to melt fast and the weather will remain warm today and tomorrow. The snow is not long for this world. I will be taking a look once again before midnight tonight. If I had to make a prediction at this late point in the contest, I would have to lean towarda final smowmelt on Saturday (the 29th). If we do get the final snowmelt today or tomorrow then there will be an announcement about the end of the contest on Monday and we will draw the top 5 winners on Tuesday and Wednesday.

As far as the weekend weather goes, it is still looking warm and mostly dry. There is only a 30% chance of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. Even if some storms do develop, rainfall  will be light. The next chance of significant rain (over a half inch) will be late Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

Alternative Energy News:

You know I like to follow the development of alternative energy and technological progress, and I would like to purchase an electric car in the near future, so I was a little sad when I read this article “Going Green” by John Stossel. In it, he highlights the difficulty of adopting “clean” energy technologies. The thing is, he is absolutely correct about the difficulties of implementing new energy technologies. As an energy source, fossil fuels are much cheaper and much more energy-dense, than any existing alternatives. Like Stossel, I am worried about alternative energy sprawl. I have blogged about it in the past, particularly in regards to wind power. Not only are the wind turbines an eye-sore, they are an intermittent power source, noisy, and affect the local climate. Solar power is a little better, but the current panels still require a lot of space.

Gasoline has about 80 times the energy density of current lithium ion batteries. That is why we still drive gasoline cars. Stossel also highlights all the past hype regarding electric cars – and it was A LOT of hype that never panned out. I think this time around is different. There are a lot of advantages to driving electric cars and the technology is improving. To be sure, most of the new electrics will be bought by wealthy early adopters. However, I think many city dwellers will find them attractive because the ranges are improving. Many people travel less than 20 miles a day and current battery technology can handle that. It is highly unlikely that batteries (as we currently know them) will reach energy-density parity with gasoline anytime soon, but they do not need to. Heck, a Japanese EV club just drove an electric car on a track for a record 623 miles on one charge! Batteries are getting better and cheaper. Given the many other advantages of electric over gasoline, I think this time around we will see EVs take up greater market share.

Have a nice weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Snowmelt 2010, Technology

The DNR has been forced to close several Northern Wisconsin lakes due to low water levels.  According to the AP report, area lakes are down 4 to 18 inches from last year. You can add those numbers to a much larger deficit accumulated over the past several years.  It’s no secret, we are in a long term drought here in the northern half of the state.  So far this year in Wausau we are an even 5″ behind in precipitation.  This brings our precipitation deficit to 44.85″ since the beginning of 2003. 

The news about the lakes has also reached our neighbors to the south.  Here is the report from the Chicago Tribune.  It’s as clear as day, the lakes closing down could have a big impact on the tourism $$$$.

I also came across a very useful lake study guide through the DNR.  It nicely breaks down the natural causes of changing lake levels.

Check it out!!

Speaking of the DNR, on the weekend of June 5 and 6 you can take advantage of some sweet deals.  June 5 th and 6th is Free Fishing Weekend statewide.  For more information Click Here.

June 6th is also the State Park Open House…you can also take advantage of free admission to all state parks!!!!  So get out there and enjoy our beautiful weather and beautiful state.  We still have roughly 15000 lakes that aren’t closed.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Drought

First off I apologize for not having pictures of the remaining snow on Rib Mountain. I did get some video earlier in the week and it was uploaded to the blog as well as in the video section of waow.com. The problem is that my personal camera has a dead battery and it is a proprietary battery (not a typical double or triple A). We lost the USB cord that is used to charged it up and it turns out the camera does not take a standard USB, it is one of those that is thinner, ARRGGH! I hate it when companies do not use standard ports. This is that second camera I have owned that has had a proprietary function that should be standard. I vowed never to buy the last brand I owned. Now I’ll have to shun this brand as well. High-tech companies – please use standard plug-ins! Rant over.

Anyway, I did write a little blurb about the imminent endof the snowmelt contest on WAOW.com. Check it out.

Now onto the sad news of the day – the latest US Drought Monitor. The good news is that on Tuesday we did see some significant rain west of Wausau so the drought in the Northwestern part of the state should not change much over the next week.

WI Drought Worsens

The bad news is that hardly any rain fell in the northeastern part of our viewing area. This has led to an expansion of the “Extreme Drought” category from 0.3 percent of the state to 4.8 percent. It now encompasses all of Florence county, most of Forest county, and portions of Oconto, Marinette, and Langlade counties. With very little rain in the forecast over the next few days, the area of extreme drought will likely expand again next week. The next chance of rain is a 40% chance on Sunday night but if some thunderstorms do form, it looks like only a couple tenths of an inch of rain are possible. After Sunday the next chance of rain will be late Wednesday and into Thursday of next week.

Have a nice weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Snowmelt 2010

As a meteorologist one of my favorite weather phenomenon to forecast is hurricanes.  This was probably sparked because I studied and interned in Florida during 2005- the most active Hurricane season on record.  But if predictions play out for this year it is possible that we could top 2005.

There are numerous private and educational weather sites and programs that make hurricane predictions.  They include Accuweather, WSI, Weather Services International just to name a few.  Another main forecast department is Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology project.   Dr. William Gray who heads up the research at CSU has been researching tropical weather for over 40 years.  He works with another meteorologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach who will likely take over the project when Dr. Gray retires. 

The original forecast from CSU came out on April 7th, but in articles being published today it is likely they will bump up their predictions to an even more active year.   They say the weakening El Nino will lessen the wind shear which usually helps break apart hurricanes.   With less wind shear hurricanes have a greater chance of strengthening.  Their latest predictions will be published on June 2nd. 

National Weather Service which is the goverment based forecast in the United States will release their forecast tomorrow, May 27th.

Weather Service International is forecasting 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes with 5 intense hurricanes which is a category 3 or higher. 

Accuweather forecasting scenario is a little different.  They forecast numbers and landfalls.  They are forecasting 15 named storms, 7 landfalls of these storms, 5 hurricanes with 2 or 3 major landfalls.

Over the next couple days we will receive the numbers from NWS and the updated numbers from Dr. Gray’s forecast which I believe are the two forecasts that are usually relied on most . However, I do know accuweather’s hurricane forecasting has also received more attention in recent years. 

If all the forecasters are right it looks like we could be in for a ride this summer and fall.  The hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. 

If I have to say anything, after the hurricane seasons we saw in 2004 and 2005 I think people are much more attentive and take better precautions when it comes to hurricanes. 

One of the real concerns this year is going to be how the oil spill will be affected by the hurricane season.  It could be devastating if we don’t get the spill contained before a hurricane makes its way into the Gulf.  Here is an article related to that.

Here are a bunch of articles related to this subject:

More info on forecasts

Colorado Tropical Meteorology Project

Another Article

Accuweather’s hurricane forecast

National Hurricane Center ( releases forecast tomorrow)

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Natural Disasters, Records, Storms, Tropics, Uncategorized

If you thought the snow we saw on May 7th was crazy, check this out.  Back in 1947 much of the Midwest, including a large portion of Wisconsin, was hit by a major snow storm on May 29th.  As much as 10 inches fell just south of La Crosse in Gays Mills.  Could you just imagine?  What a sight and mess that had to be.  The same storm dumped over a foot of snow in NW Nebraska the previous day.  I looked really hard to find some pictures of this event but was unsuccessful.  There must have been some serious try damage.  Here in Central Wisconsin we were on the northern fringe of the heavy snow.  We only picked up an inch of snow in Wausau, however heavier totals were reported just to the south and east of here.  Pine River in Waushara Co. had 8.4 inches, Coddington in Portage Co. had 6″, New London 6″, Waupaca 4″, Point 3.5″, Rapids 3″, laona 3″, and Marshfield 2″.

Here are a couple good write ups of the storm from the National Weather Service offices in Green Bay and La Crosse…

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grb/?n=may1947snow

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/events/may1947snowstorm.php

I am very happy to say that we have nothing to worry about this Memorial Day Weekend..haha.  The forecast is looking great.  It should be a perfect weekend to have a summertime BBQ or take the boat out.  High temperatures will be in the 80′s.  There is a chance for a few thunderstorms Sunday evening, but that’s about it.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Weather History, Winter Weather