An area from northern Texas to southeast Wisconsin east up into New England will be dealing with an a traffic snarling severe winter storm through Wednesday.  It will make for nasty conditions down at the Super Bowl site in Dallas-Fort Worth where freezing rain, sleet, snow, and wind will pour down on the football frenzy taking place there Tuesday.  They will be unseasonably cold through much of the work week, but they should be half way decent by Sunday, with partly cloudy skies and high temperatures back into the 50s.   Below you can see a map indicating the huge area covered by various advisories and warnings from the National Weather Service.  Blizzard warnings are in effect as close to our area as Milwaukee down into Illinois and southeast Iowa.

National Weather Service Watches / Warnings for Tue. - Wed.

In fact Chicago will likely have an historic storm, ranking perhaps in their top 10 all-time snowfalls.  The following information about Chicago is from the Chicago National Weather Service Office.

Biggest Snowstorms in Chicago and Rockford

The following are the 10 ten greatest snowfall events in the Chicago and Rockford area.

Chicago

Since snow records began in 1886 in Chicago, there have been 41 winter storms that produced 10 inches or more of snow. A 10 inch snow occurs about once every 3 years. A 15 inch snow occurs only once about every 19 years. The closest back to back 10 inch snows were March 25-26 and April 1-2, 1970 (6 days apart). The longest period of time without a 10 inch snow or greater was February 12, 1981 to January 1, 1999 (almost 18 years). The earliest 10 inch snow was November 25-26, 1895 and the latest 10 inch snow was April 1-2, 1970. The most recent 10 inch snow was January 21-23, 2005. These snowfall statistics are through the 2004-2005 winter season.

Chicago’s 10 biggest Snowstorms:

1. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967
2. 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999
3. 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930
4. 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979
5. 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931
6. 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929
7. 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939
8. 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918
9. 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970
10. 14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886

More Chicago Snow Statistics…

Rockford

There have been 21 10-inch snows in Rockford’s history. The closest back-to-back 10-inch snows were January 14 – 15 and January 17 – 19 1943  (2 days). Therefore, it’s no wonder than the 1942 – 1943 season is ranked second for the most snowfall, right after the blizzard season of 1978 – 1979 with an amazing 74.5 inches of snow recorded!

Rockford’s Ten Biggest Snowstorms

1. 16.3 inches on January 6 – 7, 1918
2. 16.0 inches on March 30 – 31, 1926
3. 15.0 inches on March 21 – 22, 1932
4. 13.8 inches on March 1 – 2, 1948
5. 12.9 inches on December 11 – 13, 1909
6. 12.5 inches on February 10 – 11, 1944
7. 12.3 inches on January 11 – 14, 1979
8. 12.0 inches on January 17 – 19, 1943
9. 11.5 inches on January 14 – 15, 1943
10. 11.4 inches on December 14 – 16, 1987 and 11.4 inches on February 9 – 10, 1960

The map below is a computer model estimate of how much precipitation will fall from Monday evening through Wednesday midday.  Notice how the heaviest corridor stretches from Oklahoma to Chicago then on into New York State.  Some of those areas could easily receive 15 inches of snow or more.  Just south of the snow, ice accumulations could reach 2.0″ thick.  Severe thunderstorms might even slam the Gulf Coast area.

Computer Model Estimate of Precipitation through Noon Wed.

The path of the low pressure system responsible for the big mess is projected on the map below.

Low Pressure Predicted Patch from HPC

 Well, if things go as expected, this storm will mainly miss the TV-9 viewing area, but we will certainly keep an eye on it.  Best wishes if you are one of the unlucky folks that will be trying to travel by land or air in any of the affected areas!

Posted under Records, Severe Weather, Storms, Travel, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

First off, a little present weather to deal with. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect through 6am Tuesday morning for Clark, Jackson, Monroe, Juneau, and Adams counties. Light snow will continue through today and tonight and could accumulate 3 to 5 inches in the ADVISORYarea. Around Stevens Point and Wisconsin Rapids 2 to 3 inches is likely. I expect around 2 inches in much of Marathon county and an inch or less in the Northwoods. The worst of the storm will not develop until Tuesday night when blizzard-like conditions could hit far southeastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. If you have travel plans late tomorrow or early Wednesday for those parts of the state, be prepared for flight cancellations and treacherous roadways.

Ice Cover as of Jan 27th

Other than the snowfall early in the week, the main story will be a continued cold trend to start out February. High temps will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal from Monday through Thursday. There will be a brief warm-up from Friday through Sunday (high in the 20s to around 30), but then temps will likely plummet once again next week. As was the case in January, there is a slight chance we could break some records – just a slight chance. I like to keep track of record low potential during the winter because according to my initial research, we haven’t broken a record low during the winter time (Dec-Jan-Feb) in Wausau since 1996 – so it would be a remarkable event. That being said, there are not too many vulnerable records in February. Our best shot at breaking a record low will be on February 8th when the record is -27 and again on the 13th when the record is -25. Last month I mentioned the chance of a record low around the 20th. We ended up about 5 degrees shy. The low on the 21st was -20 and the mercury dipped to -21 on the 23rd. One factor that has changed since earlier in January and might produce some lower temps is the ice cover on Lake Superior. It is not even close to frozen over but it is getting more ice and that trend will continue this week. More ice on the lake means that cold air coming from the north will not pick up as much heat from the Lake.

That is it for the blog post today because we will be off to award another Tools for Schools grant to and area school. Tune in at 6:30am on Tuesday morning (Wake-Up Wisconsin) to find out who wins the $300 this month.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Records, Winter Weather

Hello major winter storm!

We are dealing with a major winter storm this week and it is not only going to affect one area but more than likely wreak havoc on the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, Northeast and even parts of the Southeast.  This storm is massive and could possibly paralyze places for days.  This could not only be the storm of the year, it could likely be a record breaking storm with a foot to almost two feet in many locations!  This will happen as near as few hundred miles from our area.  Here are the snow totals from this storm from our sister station in Madison…

What is happening is tonight we will see an upper level disturbance ( energy) bring the first bands of snow to our area and across the Badger state.  This will bring from 1-3″ for most of us but counties included in the Winter Weather Advisory will see from 3-6″.  For our friends along  Lake Michigan they will see lake effect snow bands producing snow totals from  4-7″  near Milwaukee.   This snowfall will continue until the early part of Tuesday, this is all associated with a low pressure from the Rockies.  The real storm will come from a Panhandle hook that will shoot out  Tuesday  and move just south of us in Illinois, Indiana and eventually shoot to the Northeast.  Besides just snow this storm could bring ice accumulations of an inch or more to parts of the Midwest, including St. Louis.  There will also be a tight pressure gradient which equals strong winds and the reason we will see blizzard conditions from Milwaukee to Chicago to Detroit.  The exact track of the storm will in the end determine what everyone sees but it will be a major mess. 

This is the probability map of 6 inches or more from Tues night until Wed night.  Remember this is in addition to what we will see from tonight until then.  As you can see it is almost 70% chance of seeing 6 inches or more near Milwaukee in Chicago.  This storm is already being measured to storms in the past where two feet fell.

On the other side of the storm we will see severe weather for the southeast including severe storms and tornadoes.  In the end they say that over 100 million people could be impacted from this storm!

Looks like we are going to miss out! If you have travel plans, be ready for a long wait. Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

We have several ways to warn people about severe weather, whether it is from the severe storms in the summer to the winter storms in the winter when you hear certain terms most people understand what they mean.  For example if they hear “tornado warning” they know to take shelter because a tornado is close.  If a “winter weather advisory” is scrolling on the screen that typically makes people aware that we will be seeing winter weather ( ice, snow, sleet) that will make travel difficult.

There is now a new study being done by a few forecasts offices including Duluth to determine if there should be a new warning called “extreme cold”.  This would be used in locations that have the potential to see extremely cold temps in the winter without the wind chill.  We already have a wind chill warning but there are times when without wind the temp can plunge to bitterly cold readings.  Right now  besides a special weather statement or a hazardous outlook we have no way to issue a “warning” to the public. 

I think this is a new idea that could be utilized.  It is rare to see 40 below zero across the US but by no means impossible.  That being said ,it will not be over used.  It is important to warn people of what extreme cold can do including hypothermia and frostbite.  In temps that  cold frostbite can occur on exposed skin in only a few minutes.

I will be interested to see how the test season went this winter.  For more info check out Duluth’s NWS Page.

Have a good night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Uncategorized, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

What has been obvious to me for a few years is now permeating the psyche of more scientists and technologists. That is, how advancing technology and progress has the potential to completely transform our socio-economic system and on a time frame that was recently unthinkable. Just a few days back I linked to a report about how the world could be completely powered by alternative energy by 2030. That research is now getting wider play. I hope it reaches the ears of the IPCC working groups (who are in charge of anthropogenic global warming, or AGW, projections). I have been harping for a few years now that assuming a “business as usual” scenario for fossil fuel usage through 2100 is not very likely. I highly doubt we will be driving gasoline cars in the year 2100. The founder of Project Better place thinks electric cars will outsell gas cars by 2020!

The IPCC has a tough job on its hands trying to predict future trends and that is why they forecast a range of scenarios. Unfortunately, the only scenario they do not entertain is declining fossil fuel usage after the next decade or two. (I did my own projection a couple weeks ago) I think I will have to get in touch with the current working group and find out what scenarios they are working. I will suggest that even if they think a lower fossil fuel scenario is unlikely, it would be useful as a metric of how we could benefit if we focused a little harder on alternative energy. Even if you don’t think humans have much affect on the climate, using less fossil fuel would make the air, water, and soil a lot cleaner – so it would be a great benefit.

Just another little tidbit here on newer cleaner technology: CREE has announced the production of an A19 LED light bulb. They expect it will acquire an Energy Star rating. The only thing they did not announce is the price. That is always a sticking point with new technology. They did say however, that the bulb was designed with low cost in mind. As you know, I was a little early on the LED-bulbs-for-the-home scene a few years ago, promoting one of the first bulbs on the market, which now sells for an outrageous $50 online. Now seems to be the time for LEDs as CREE is not the only company pushing this envelope. Phillips and Lighting Science Group also have standard LED light bulbs for sale.

Since lighting takes up 20% of our energy usage (if memory serves me right), this is another area where we can improve our impact on the planet. LEDs could cut the energy needs of lighting by half or more.

Lastly, a note on the present weather, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is ine effect for the entire area from noon to midnight exceptClark, Jackson, Monroe, Juneau, and Adams counties. A storm system moving through the area this evening could produce up to 5 inches of snow in the northwoods, 2 to 3 inches around Wausau and Marathon county, and an inch or less of snow south of Stevens Point.

Have a pleasant weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Technology, Winter Weather

I just wanted to share a little more information to follow-up on Tony’s La Nina blog post from yesterday. Here is a chart that depicts El Nino and La Nina episodessince 1950. The blue numbers indicate times when we had La Nina and the red numbers indicate El Nino. If the number is not colored, that time period was considered “neutral”. There isn’t an exact relationship between drought and La Nina, but some of the most significant droughts in Wisconsin and the U.S. occurred during or around La Nina periods.

Take a look at the El Nino/La Nina chart and you will find quite a long stretch of blue numbers (La Nina) from 1954 through 1956. This coincided with one of the worst droughts in modern history(besides the 1930s). As far as Wisconsin goes, the driest year in our history was 1976 and another significant drought occurred in 1988. Analyzing the El Nino/La Nina chart you will see that we had a strong La Nina early in 1976, conditions went neutral during the Summer and then a weak El Nino developed late in the year. The stretch of La Nina conditions in the mid 1970s was as long and as strong as that of the 1950s but here in Wisconsin, we only had one year with a bad drought. In 1988 La Nina developed in the late Spring and then strengthened during the Summer and Fall.

Statewide Palmer Index

If you want to do your own little investigation of ENSO and drought, use this page to find out the historical Palmer Drought Severity Indexfor Wisconsin. You can even investigate by region. It is interesting to note that from 2003 through 2009 (7 years in a row), we had below normal precipitation in Wausau with significant short periods of drought each year. During most of that time the Pacific ocean conditions were either El Nino or neutral. It is also interesting that the southern part of the state tended to be extremely wet during those seven years, while the north half was mostly drier than normal.

The next ENSO monthly diagnostic discussion will be issued in early February, usually before th 10th.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update

I was a speaker today at United Farm Credit Service Banquet over in Curtiss.  I recapped some of the 2010 growing season highlights including the sunny, warm spring we had, the wet and warmer summer that followed with 44 tornadoes in the state, and the very nice October that finished up the season.   Some farmers had their best corn crop ever due to the ample moisture and the 400 above normal growing degree days we piled up.

March - May Temperature Trends During La Nina Episodes

March - May Precipitation Trends During La Nina Episodes

I went on to discuss the potential trends for the 2011 growing season around Wisconsin.  If the current strong La Nina pattern persists, we would have a pretty good chance of having a somewhat cool and wetter than normal spring.  If the La Nina lingers into summer, there is the potential for above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall during the summer.

One of the farmers in attendance mentioned to me that they heard a news story about a possible drought arriving this year that hasn’t happened for 23 years.  That one caught me off guard!  I’ve heard of 7 years of drought, 7 years of wet, but never a 23 year cycle.   Well as it turns out, La Nina can lead to dry summers in the Corn Belt into Wisconsin.  See the image below showing precipitation anomalies from past La Ninas.

June - August Temperature Trends During La Nina Episodes

 As you can see, it is pretty striking how large of an area in the Midwest is usually dry in a La Nina summer.  As it turns out the current La Nina is similar to one we had back in 1973-74.  The Midwest did indeed have a poor growing season that summer with widespread dryness.  So it isn’t quite a 23 year cycle, but that’s the closest reasoning I could find.  The extreme drought of 1988 growing season drought, the worst I can personally remember, occurred during a La Nina episode as well.

Well, those are some of the signs we are looking at going toward the growing season.  In the meantime if you are itching to see things green up, you’ll have to just use your imagination, as the snow cover will likely grow deeper before getting closer to spring.  Take care.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Drought, ENSO Update, Spring, Summer

Here at the StormTrak9 weather center we like to receive photographs of weather and scenery from around the area. The best ones we show on TV, but you might also find some of them here in the weather blog. One category of pictures I enjoy are optical effects of the sun. This of course includes sunrises and sunsets, rainbows, and during this time of year – a lot of sundogs (parahelia) and halos around the moon and sun. These are seen more typically during the winter because there are more ice crystals in the air. Sun dogs, sun pillars, sun spires, and halos are all very similar in nature. 

Sun dogs in Sweden

For a more in depth discussion of how sun dogs form, check out this link. I was reminded of how prominent sundogs are this time of year by this spectacular picture from Sweden. I wonder if the photographer had some sort of wide angle lens to get such a good shot. You will also find a good number of cool sun dog pictures by searching google images.

If you ever have a unique picture of weather, nature, or scenery from Northcentral Wisconsin, feel free to send it to weather@waow.com.

Staying on the topic of optical effects, there is one coming up in March that not too many people are aware of even though it happens every year (and I have mentioned it before). It turns out that the day of the equinox (the first day of astronomical Spring – as marked by our calendars), is not actually the day we have “equal” amount of day and night. The equinox is calculated by the position of the earth and the sun, but does not take into account that the earth has an atmosphere. Because the atmosphere bends light, we “see” the sun (in reality, and optical illusion) a couple minutes before it is actually above the horizon and “see” it for a couple minutes after it has set. There is also that fact that our sunrise/sunset is defined at the moment the first/last tip of the sun rises/sets above/below the horizon. The astronomical calendar is set assuming that the sun is a single point of light, not a large circle. It is calculated on the center of the sun’s disk. Read more about this astronomical foible here, as it was discussed during the Fall Equinox.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Nature, Seasonal Items, Space, Viewer pictures

The second worst disaster in Brazil’s history is being blamed on landslides that have gripped the country and so far have taken 806 lives.  Some estimates say that the total could reach over a 1000 since atleast 207 people are reported missing.  This number is only behind the meningitis outbreak that killed 1500 people in 1974

This is occurring in the mountainous region 60 miles north of Rio De Janeiro where floods and mudslides have ripped through poor communities.  The force of the slides have buried people under the mud and slid cars and houses down the hills.  The hillsides collapsed because the equivalent of a months rain feel in just 24 hours. 

Over 20,000 people in the Serrana region have been forced to evacuate their homes and remain homeless the government is saying. 

On top of the devastation and destruction they are now worried about spreading diseases from contaminated water. 

Here is a slideshow of the flooding. 

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Flooding, Natural Disasters, Travel, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

Researchers from the City College of New York say 2010 set a record for ice melt in Greenland.  The previous record was set in 2007.  They say over the past 30 years, the increase in the rate of ice melt in Greenland is about 17,000 square kilometers per year.  That’s an area about the size of Washington State being melted every 10 years.  You can read the full article from the Cyrospheric Processes Laboratory at this link, http://greenland.cryocity.org/

Photo courtesy of M. Tedesco/WWF

The greatest melting rates were observed in the west and southwest portions of Greenland in 2010.  The melt season was abnormally long in 2010 as warm air moved in a good month earlier than normal in the spring, and warmth lingered several weeks longer than normal, well into September.  Once the snow on top of the ice field started, “honeycombing” or getting more open grained, it absorbed more radiation from the sun.  This in turn led to faster melting.  It was a positive feedback loop.  In addition, summer snowfall was below normal.  Thus there was less reflection of the sun’s energy back into space than normal over Greenland.

Photo courtesy of M. Tedesco

Many climate scientists have suggessted that further accelerations of ice melt in Greenland would cause sea levels to rise at a much faster pace.

Posted under Climate Change, Environment, Records, Science, Weather NEws