One of the most famous weather proverbs applies to the month of March…”in like a lamb, out like a lion” and “in like a lion, out like a lamb”.  The saying goes, if March starts quiet and pleasant like a lamb it will finish stormy and nasty like a roaring lion.  I actually examined a few dozen Marches using this  saying, and to be honest I couldn’t find any statistical merit to the saying.  If anything, March is a very changeable m0nth as the jet stream jostles between its winter and spring position.  So wild temperature swings and major storms sprinkled with several mild and sunny days are the norm.

Here are some other March sayings.

• So many mists in March you see, So many frosts in may will be.
• March takes winter’s cloak then sells it three days later.
• Thunder in March means a fruitful but sorrowful year.
• If the spring be cold and wet, the autumn will be cold and dry.
• March 19th:  Clear on St. Joseph’s Day foretells a fertile year.
• March 21st:  If it rains on St. Benoit’s it will rain for forty days later.
• March 25th:  St. Mary’s bright and clear, fertile is said to be the year.
• As the days grow longer the storms grow stronger.

Near Nutterville in Marathon Co., 25-February. Taken by Kent Perrin, Weston.

Finally here is a proverb that I came across that fits in well this winter seeing that we’ve had almost 60″ of snow so far in the Wausau area, already above the entire season’s normal, and we haven’t even gone through March yet.  The saying is this:

“A year of snow, a year of plenty.”

A continuous covering of snow on farmland and orchards delays the blossoming of fruit trees until the season of killing frosts is over. It also prevents the alternate thawing and freezing which destroys wheat and other winter grains.

Well, hope you enjoyed a look at weather folklore.  I’m sure you know of some other ones, maybe you even rely on some.  Once in awhile it is fun to dwell on the “art” side of weather forecasting.

Posted under Nature, Seasonal Items, Spring, Winter Weather

In last week’s blog update I once again tried  to gin up support for dropping daylight savings time (DST) - because – it makes sense to drop it. Even though society and especially the government is generally resistant to change, this is something that has a chance to end up in the dust bin because there are already states and counties in the U.S. who do not observe DST. Also, Russia displayed some common sense and plans to drop the 1 hour time shift this year and indefinitely into the future.

A more daunting effort for change – yet one that makes even more sense - is the topic of this Monday’s blog post. That is - changing the season’s. Having four distinct seasons marked through the year is just fine. Don’t worry snowmobilers, I am not advocating the removal of Winter from the calendar. Nor do I desire a change in the names of the seasons. What needs to change is the beginning and end time of the seasons. We should base the change of the seasons temperature. After all, the defining characteristic of Summer is that it is the warmest time of the year. The defining characteristic of Winter is that it is the coldest time of year. So why does the calendar say Winter ends on March 20th, when the coldest time of the year is already well past? It is because the calendar date of the first day of Spring is based on the position of the sun in the sky – not upon the weather.

Sticking with temperature – if we wanted to define the coldest quarter of the year as Winter then December, January, and February would fit the bill and March 1st would be the first day of Spring. June 1st would be the first day of Summer and so on. Not only would the marking of the seasons make more sense this way, it would be easier to remember than the astronomical calendar which changes every year. The calendar would say “1st Day of Spring” on March 1st and would say “Spring (or Vernal) Equinox” on March 20th. Easy enough, right? Knowing how ingrained in the human psyche are the movement of the sun and astronomically marked calendar, I doubt there will be any radical change anytime soon. Perhaps we could start out with a small change. How about labeling March 1st as “Climatological Spring” and March 20th as “Astronomical Spring”. If this change were to take place, after a while, people might start asking why March 20th is “Spring” if it has little to do with the weather. What do you think? A lost cause?

Enjoy the last day of Winter. Tomorrow it will be Spring! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Seasonal Items

A “Spring-like” storm is making its way through the Central Plains and the Ohio Valley.  It has already spawned warning across several states including Kansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Kentucky.  There are several areas under a moderate risk of severe storms which would include damaging winds, hail and tornadoes.  In addition most areas are going to see heavy down pours which will cause flash flooding. 

Here are the reports so far including two tornado reports in Kansas.

Here is the map just after 7 o’clock on Sunday night.  You can see that there is two main cores from this storm.  The first spreads from Kansas to Illinois, the southern end of this storm is spawning tornadoes.  There is another cluster of severe storms from Kentucky into Ohio although this is not as strong it still has the possibility to spawn a severe storms and especially flooding across the Ohio Valley.  In this area from an inch to two inches could fall which could make rivers and lakes over flow their banks.

In case you were wondering this is the same storm that was suppose to bring snow to our area.  It did make a track farther to the south and has the possibility of bringing a wintry mix to the very southern section of the Badger state.  It will clear out by late morning as it is a fast moving storm and will be pushing into the Mid Atlantic by the afternoon. 

For us a quiet week is on tap, the next chance of snow is forecasted for Thursday.  Otherwise it will be partly to mostly sunny through Wednesday.

Have a good night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Spring, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

Oh how things can change in just a day! Remember that storm we were talking about for Sunday night into Monday…it looks like we  are going to miss out.  Depending if you are a snow lover or a spring lover, this is good or bad news. 

 Right now it looks like we are going to completely miss out.  The storm is still developing around the four corners region but will eventuallyshoot across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and then pass across Missouri and Illinois.  This pass will keep all activity to our south here is the time period we were most concerned about Monday morning this snap shot would have been 6 am:   As you can see it barely brings anything even to the southern half of the Badger state.  These model runs have been fairly consistent the past couple runs and since the time frame is only 36 hours I am thinking that this storm will likely take more of a southerly track.  It is quite a difference compared to the runs from 24 hours ago which brought from 3 to 6 inches to areas south and east of Wausau.  As a forecaster these winter storms can be a challenge especially when we begin to talk about temps hovering around freezing and having to add in freezing rain and or sleet.  For now what is most important to note is it looks like we are going to be missing out on this storm.  It will bring severe weather and heavy rain to the Central Plains and the Ohio Valley from Sunday night to Monday night.  One favorable factor is that it is a fast moving storm.

I will keep you updated once we see the latest runs! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, Freeze, Science, Severe Weather, Snow Totals, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

March is rapidly approaching, which reminds me that I haven’t yet started the movement to repeal Daylight Savings Time. I wrote about this issue last year but did not try to gin-up  support. The original reasoning for instituting Daylight Savings Time was to save energy. According to recent research out of Indiana, Daylight Savings Time actually compels us to use more energy. More important than lighting in the present day is AIR CONDITIONING. Having the sun stay out longer in the evening makes people use air conditioners longer. With the high price of oil, we could use the small percentage of energy savings by not changing the clocks. There are many other reasons to drop the clock change. Someone has already made a website StandardTime.com. Colorado voted to eliminate the change, but the effort failed. Just about the time I was going to create a facebook page to end daylight savings time, I found that someone has beaten me to it. Maybe I’ll write my Senator or Congressperson. If the Russians are smart enough to end the DST madness then we should too! We should either stay on Daylight Time or Regular Time (preferable). No more changes.

An update on the potential snowfall for Sunday night into Monday morning: It still looks like the highest chance of a few inches of snow will be to the south and east of Wausau and most of central Wisconsin. If the storm would move farther north, we could end up with 5 or 6 inches of heavy wet snow.

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

A group of scientists spoke February 19th at the American Association for the Advancement of Science in regards to new research and modeling dealing with how climate change could raise exposure and risk to humans from illness arising from ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes ecosystems.  Some studies suggest the impact will be felt within 30 years.  

Some of the key points in the studies funded by NOAA’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative are:

• Climate change could prolong toxic algal outbreaks
• Increased atmospheric dust from global desertification could lead to more harmful bacteria in oceans and seafood
• Increased rainfall and old sewer systems could affect water quality in the Great Lakes

The National Weather Service, Milwaukee/Sullivan has a more thorough writeup on their website.  Go to: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=64425&source=0

You can also check out a comprehensive report from NOAA titled “A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change” at the following link.  It’s fairly lengthy but filled with quite a few pictures and broken down nicely by subject.  It’s a pretty easy read.  It evens talks about climate’s role in terms of illnesses like cancer and asthma. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/PDFs/HHCC_Final_v5-4.pdf

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Ecology, Environment, Weather NEws

Just yesterday I was highlighting the fact that carbon emissions in the U.S have decreased dramatically in recent years and that technological progress will likely assist in maintaining this trend into the future. As you are also aware, I have often mentioned (maybe “harped” is a better term) about the fact that carbon emission scenarios for the future which are used as input for the Global Climate Models (GCMs), are likely well overstated.

Finally, I am starting to see a little better thinking in this regard. A recent study about the possible effects a warmer world could have on crop production found that anthropogenic global warming might not be deleterious to crop production  in all areas of the world. Within the parameters of the study, the scientists factored in likely technological advancementsthat would assist in boosting crop production. Hooray for them. The up shot for the Midwest is that corn production might be ok (or fair better), if the theoretical warming comes to pass.

Have a fine Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Technology

A sharp drop in the jet stream over the western U.S. associated with a deep area of low pressure will allow snow to accumulate in the hills of southern California around Los Angeles and near Vegas.  There is even a chance of snowflakes Thursday evening into Friday morning in downtown San Fransisco.   The last time that snow was reported in downtown San Francisco was about 35 years ago!  It probably won’t accumulate at all because of the relative warmth at the low elevation.  However in the hilly districts and in parts of Oakland there could be an inch or so, with Winter Weather Advisories out for surrounding mountains.  You can get more details from the National Weather Service Office out there.  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mtr/

By the way that storm will drop down toward the Texas Panhandle by Saturday and then move northeast.  It’s the same system which is giving us at least a chance of light snow around Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday night.  If it tracks far enough north it could produce heavy snow in south and east Wisconsin.   The current data available puts the heavy snow swath more from Illinois into Lower Michigan.

It appears our temperatures will be chilly early to mid next week, but we may be on quite a roller coaster ride for Much of March.  The jet stream should remain quite  variable in position.  It’s very possible we’ll have some rainy days with temperatures in the 40s and some snowstorms with days in the 20s mixed in. 

Speaking of snow, we received the photo below from a viewer.  It’s a good reminder that animals are quite resourceful in finding food even during winter.  The eagle seems to have found a nice lunch on a roadside.  Have a great rest of your week!

Posted under forecast, Nature, Seasonal Items, Storms, Weather NEws

Another update on the recent snowfall. According to the NWS in Green Bay, the two-day snow total of 13.5 inches was a record for the month of February. A new two-day record was set in Stevens Point as well with a total of 15.8 inches. In some respects, I am surprised we have never experienced more than 13.5 inches from any one storm in February (in Wausau). Then again, February is our driest month of the year, so maybe it is not all that unusual.

Now continuing on from yesterday’s AGW discussion, something interesting has happened in the last few years in the U.S. If you read the weather blog, this should come as no surprise to you – carbon dioxide emissions have fallen dramatically. Check out this webpage for numerous charts  and explanations about energy usage in the U.S. over the last few years. A couple of key themes that you will find is that the ongoing “great” recession and natural gas power plants have played a part. Natural gas is more efficient than coal at producing electricity and almost all new power plants in recent years have been the natural gas variety. Good thing we have plenty natural gas in the U.S. – enough to completely run the country for several decades. Sadly, the current federal government seems to be ignoring natural gas as a method to reduce pollution and carbon dioxide emissions. Thankfully we still have Boone Pickens. Interesting to note that the massive drop in emissions occurred even without draconian regulations, legislation, and taxes.

More familiar to blog readers (in regards to emissions) is the ongoing trend toward more efficiency through technological progress. Not only are we improving our alternative energy devices, but also squeezing more GDP out of every BTU. Here are a few recent developments that point toward continued progress:

With regards to solar power, there has been a lot of work toward making the panels cheaper by using less material. Researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab have created a single layer solar cell that absorbs light  from many wavelengths. Normal solar cells require many different layers and materials to absorb different wavelengths of light. Having just one material in one layer would make the solar cell much cheaper. Don’t get too excited yet, this one is only in the lab at this point.

In the lab as well is a concept developed by scientists in Singapore – doping thin film solar cells with nanoparticles of aluminum. The metal helps direct more sunlight onto the solar cell.

Closer to commercialization is a process developed by Crystal Solar. They use much less silicon during the production process. They create solar cells using gas deposition (an epitaxial process). They use 30 to 40 percent less silicon and can create silicon cells 20 times faster than current epitaxial processes.

Start-up solar company Solar Junction already has a more efficient solar cell coming off of their pilot production line. This particular solar cell is meant for concentrating solar panels. Theirs is more efficient than anything currently on the market.

As far a storing all the new clean energy, progress continues in the making of batteries as well. Envia – a start-up company, is making lithium ion batteries with manganese cathodes. This allows the battery to store twice the energy – or so the company claims – the product is not on the market yet. Even if it was just a small percentage more, it would be a good improvement in battery tech. A similar effort is underway in university labs.

All of those batteries are in preparation for electric cars and promoters think the future is looking bright. Project Better Place continues its transformation of Israel into an “electrified” transportation economy. Some people think a target of 1 million electric vehicles on the road in the U.S. by 2015 is doable. I wouldn’t mind seeing that, but the price of the vehicles has to come down a bit more if the target is to be reached.

Even outside of the “new/green” technology things are getting better. A company in San Diego has constructed a prototype gas engine that could increase efficiency by 20 to 50%. They do this by splitting the typical engine cylinder into a hot and cold compartment.

Not to be outdone, Volkswagen has created a diesel-electric hybrid concept car that achieves 261 mpg.

All of these technological trends and developments occurring in tandem convince me that carbon emissions in the U.S will continue to decline in coming years.

Have a pleasant Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Pollution, Science, Technology

Time for an update on the snow total. In Wausau we had a record 8.7 inches of snow on Sunday and an additional 4.8 inches on Monday making our grand total 13.5 inches. Which makes it exactly the same total as the blizzard that came through on December 11th-12th. I find it interesting that we had two big snowstorms this winter and both storms produced the same amount of snow. The difference with the first storm is that we had much more wind and cold air develop after the storm system passed.

When we have some significant wintry weather (whether cold or snow) it is common to hear funny sarcastic comments about “global warming”. The way anthropogenic global warming (AGW) was presented over the last couple of decades led most people (me included) to believe we would never see Winter again! So what is the latest news about AGW? Here are a few stories that could have made my former “big list of bad things caused by AGW” (or the current list here)

Wolverines could suffer. Wolverines build dens in snow and researchers are skeptical that there will be snow in the mountains where wolverines live in the U.S. I wonder if wolverines will adapt to use other structures (rocks or wood) to create dens if snow cover in the mountains becomes less.

AGW has been linked to recent flooding. This one has been kind-of back and forth in the environmental news lately. The primary cause of flooding in Pakistan and Australia has been pinned on La Nina. However, warmer air does have the capability of holding more water. That is why climatologists expect heavier rain events in the future.

AGW could cause changes in plant and animal evolution. Not sure why this is a headline per se, because any long term change in environmental factors (whether it be temperature, precipitation, or non-weather related) will cause species to adapt differently. Back when I was keeping the “Big List”, a few people predicted that most everything on the planet will die by 2100, so it would seem minor shifts in evolution are not our primary problem.

AGW will cause the allergy season to become longer. You would think this is another no-brainer since warmer temperatures would mean a longer growing season. However, there are often secondary feedback effects of changes in the environment to produce counter-intuitive results. Warmer temperatures might promote the growth of less allergenic species of plants.

On the subject of plants, it is also important to note that plants can counteract warmer weather. Not only do plants evaporate water (and cool the atmosphere), they also take up carbon dioxide while growing. A recent study found that plants could take up enough carbon to counteract theoretical future warming by 0.30 degrees. It has also been found that microscopic ocean life has potentially been sequestering more carbon dioxide than previously thought. Given these recent findings, it makes me question this study about emmission scenarios a bit more. It concluded that dangerous “global warming” will occur even if we stopped all carbon emissions today. I would tend to think plants would continue to take up more carbon in a warmer world because many ocean and land areas in northern latitudes would start supporting more plants. Then again, some researchers expect the thawing permafrost to contribute large quantities of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. What is needed perhaps is more in-depth knowledge of the earth’s carbon cycle.

In other news, AGW could cause 50 million refugees to move north by 2020. Oddly, this article uses the recent political instability in the middle east to open up the argument for more such moves in the future – due to AGW. If temperatures do increase, migration would be a natural tendency (as many human groups in the past have done), however, it is not guaranteed. Technology could help people stay put, similar to how large populations already live in hot arid regions of the world. Also, migrating people could bring the world closer together and highlight the problems of the human condition more effectively. This is already happening through our ever expanding communications network  around the world. Our constant communication and technological progress is presently bearing more fruit than most people realize. A surprise to many experts is that the global rate of extreme poverty has been cut in half in recent years, well ahead of the target year of 2017.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Snow Totals