Though temperatures outside on Saturday night will be headed into the chilly 30′s, I just wanted to check in and say thanks for the warm welcome to Wisconsin! 

Allow me to introduce myself, my name’s Rob Duns and I’m the newest addition to the StormTrak 9 and Newsline9 team here at WAOW.  I grew up in Northeast Ohio and have family all over Western New York.  Needless to say I’m no stranger to mostly cloudy skies and rough winters.  But I’m excited to be here in Wausau to help bring you the info you need to make your daily plans when it comes to the weather outside!

So a little about me.  I’m a 2008 graduate from the Tim Russert Department of Communication and Theatre Arts at John Carroll University in Cleveland, Ohio.  I continued on at JCU in graduate school earning a Master’s in Communication Management (walking in the graduation ceremony this May!) and while working on my Master’s I enrolled in the Broadcast Meteorology Certification program at Mississippi State University. 

I’ve known for a long time that with an interest in the weather and television, broadcast meteorology is the field for me.  In fact back home in Ohio when I was a kid my sisters and I turned our wood shed into a small tv studio.  Though we didn’t make anything worthy of an Emmy, it was still pretty fun. 

I’ve carried my interest in weather and TV through my academic experiences and just this spring wrapped up production on a 45-minute documentary for my graduate program on the pros and cons of wind turbine energy in the Great Lakes.  The film focused on Northeast Ohio and why wind energy looks different there, as opposed to the regions surrounding it.  The film involved first-hand interviews and on-location shoots in Michigan, Ontario, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York.  It was a lot of work, but turned up some very interesting findings on how different regions view wind energy.

Though this is my first full-time weather job, I’ve interned at The Weather Channel (I was their first intern ever put on the air!  It’s my one little claim to fame!), WOIO-TV in Cleveland and WKBN-TV in Youngstown, Ohio.  I’ve also had anchoring and reporting roles with the OSTN Network and G-TV Channel in Geauga County, Ohio. 

While in college I was the weekday weather forecaster at WJCU-FM in Cleveland and forecast everything from lake effect snow-pocalypses to pleasant fall afternoons. 

I learned working with meteorologists for years how important weather is to everyone’s day-to-day lives.  And I also know first hand how weather can scare people when it gets rough.  My first day at WKBN-TV in Youngstown involved two tornado warnings where I answered phone calls from worried viewers.  I’ll never forget hearing the fear in people’s voices who were scared of what was happening.  I learned from some of the best that day how important it is to relay accurate information to the community when the weather gets rough. 

It’s my promise to you that I’ll do absolutely everything I can to provide you with the most accurate, timely and professional forecast I can.  

I’m looking forward to exploring more of Northern Wisconsin!  If you see me out and about town please introduce yourself!  Thanks to all of you who have already done so!

Posted under Uncategorized

A couple of items today. The first being the unfolding tragedy and devastation in the southern U.S. due to the tornadoes throughout the month of April. This past Tuesday’s swarm of tornadoes are responsible for the highest death toll since the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 1974. According to some sources, the death toll may have passed that of 1974, making it the deadliest outbreak since 1936 and it might end up ranking 5th or 6th on the all time list (as referenced here). As Tony mentioned yesterday, this is an anomaly in the modern day. Our forecasts and technology are so good that plenty of warning is usually given before a tornado strikes. Unfortunately, when tornadoes reach EF4 and EF5 strength and strike highly populated areas, there is usually going to be loss of life. Unless and until every home and business is either strengthened to withstand up to 300 mph winds and/or is built with a underground shelter AND everyone has reliable access to storm warnings, there will be fatalities from tornadoes. The reality is that not everyone can afford to build with the extra protection in mind. The statistical probability of being killed in a tornado is very low and usually does not justify the extra expense of “hardening” a structure against 300 mph winds (the highest wind ever recorded in a tornado). The best bet is to have underground shelter available (such as a basement or storm cellar). If you live in a house without a basement, you should consider having arrangements in place to head to a neighbor’s house or nearby structure with proper protection, in the case of a strong tornado. At the very least, you should have a place in your house where you can hide under something sturdy, like a pool table or a work bench.

Of course, in the modern day, every extreme weather event draws the question of whether it is related to anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Here are a couple articles that touch on the subject:

http://www.livescience.com/13933-tornado-storms-climate-change.html

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20431-why-have-so-many-tornadoes-hit-the-us-this-month.html

I am heartened to see that a cautious approach is taken in these articles. In the past, every new extreme weather event was nearly iron-clad proof that AGW was out of control and destroying the planet. In the case of tornadoes, if the atmosphere warms a bit more you might think that would lead to stronger storms because in very general terms warmth=energy for storms. However, strong tornadic storms need high wind shear and temperature differential to form. If the horizontal and vertical temperature gradient of the atmosphere becomes less in a warmer world (a realistic possibility), then there might be fewer strong storms. Wind speeds in some parts of the world might go down as well which would lead to less wind shear. So there is no guarantee that there would be more deadly tornadoes if the atmosphere warms up.

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Other than the recent severe weather, I need to remind you to enter the Rib Mountain snowmelt contest if you haven’t already. Read here for all the details.

Have a good Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Severe Weather, Snowmelt 2011, Tornadoes, Weather Safety

Wednesday’s extreme tornado outbreak in the southeast U.S. ranks so far as the second deadliest outbreak of the past 60 years, only a bit behind a super outbreak on April 3 – 4, 1974.  That one killed 308 persons.  While the numbers are not firm yet for yesterday’s twisters, as of 3 p.m. the death toll was 272.  That includes 184 in Alabama alone with fatalities also in Tennessee, Virginia, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Arkansas.  It is extremely rare to have so many fatalities in this modern day of severe weather forecasting and technology.  Warning lead time is at least 10 minutes more on average than it was back in the 1950s.  However when the tornadoes are extremely intense and large, like F-4 strength and on the ground a long-time even adequate warning is not enough sometimes. 

Tuscaloosa, AL tornado from Apr. 27, 2011

There is a preliminary report in Alabama that one very strong tornado was on the ground continuously for 60 miles with wind speeds over 200 mph along its entire path.  Buildings are so devastated there is no place to escape.  I should clarify that.  Many new homes in places like Oklahoma are building tornado “safe rooms”.  They are below ground bunkers basically made on all four sides and ceiling of 1 foot thick, steel reinforced concrete.  Persons should be safe in one of those even if they take a direct hit from a monster tornado.  There is a preliminary report in Alabama that one very strong tornado was on the ground continuously for 60 miles with wind speeds over 200 mph along its entire path.

As you can see above this outbreak Wednesday and Wednesday night produced 165 tornadoes, 363 high wind reports, and 188 large hail reports in a swath from Arkasas and Mississippi up to New York.  The largest hail report was 4 inch diameter at Batesville, MS.  The strongest straight line wind gust recorded was 113 mph at the airport at Bay, Arkansas.  There were nearly 800,000 people without power yet as of midday Thurday from Tennessee into Alabama and Georgia.

The perfect ingredients came together for this outbreak.  There was a strong area of low pressure with a cold front moving in from the west.  Warm and humid air was in place to provide fuel.  Then there was also a tremendous jet stream of 175 mph racing in from the southwest in the upper atmosphere.  This wind energy and turning of wind with height helped the supercell thunderstorms to aquire intense rotation and tornadoes.  Let’s hope the setup doesn’t repeat itself anytime soon.

Posted under Natural Disasters, Records, Severe Weather, Spring, Storms, Tornadoes, Weather NEws

Not much time for a blog post today because I will be training our newest meteorologist here at StormTrak9. His name is Rob Duns and he hails from Ohio. Check back here later this week for an introductory blog entry from Rob. You can catch him on TV Thursday night. His normal schedule on TV will be from Friday through Sunday.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Uncategorized

I know it has been wet in my yard because several of my 10-15 foot pine trees are actually getting bent crooked by the wind.  Basically the ground is so soft and waterlogged right now that when the wind blows as hard as it has this spring, the roots of the trees have nothing solid to anchor into.  I hope it dries up to a reasonable level soon, because my attempts to stake the trees have only had very limited success. 

Anyway here are some of the precipitation numbers that tell the story of a wet winter and now a wet spring.  By the way this hasn’t just been a local trend.  Most of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, down through about Tennessee and Arkansas have had the very wet weather.  In April alone, we have had 17 days already with some precipitation in Wausau giving us a total of about 3.6″ of moisture.  The normal for the entire month is around 2.8″.  Given that we are expecting a few showers Wednesday and Thursday, then a more substantial rain again around Saturday it is possible we’ll be well over 4.0″ for the month. 

By the way, Green Bay set a daily record rainfall Tuesday, with 1.72″ as of this writing in the early evening.  They broke their old record of 1.02″ from 1902.  Since meteorological spring began (March 1st) we’ve had 5.97″ of precipitation in Wausau, 1.61″ above normal.  What a difference a year makes.  In the same period last year, we only had 1.62″ total.

For the year so far (since Jan. 1st) we’ve had 8.1″ of precipitation with is about 1.75″ above normal.  We had many dry years in a row until the spell was broken last summer.  I wonder if that old weather folklore of “7 years of feast and 7 years of famine” is going to play out.  Certainly this will help the lakes and river levels stay high for some time.  That’s good news for boaters and recreation.  Now if we could just get 5 or 6 dry, sunny days in a row so we could think about getting some seeds in the ground for farmers and gardeners.  We can keep hoping, can’t we!

Posted under Uncategorized

Since I know the cool and wet weather is on everyone’s mind, let me start out by saying it isn’t going to end anytime soon (the next couple of weeks). If you are hoping for a 5 or 6 day stretch of dry weather with high temps in the 60s and 70s (I know I am), it looks like you will be out of luck. This doesn’t mean there will be no nice weather, just that it will be few and far between. Just be thankful that the heavy rain rain today is not falling as snow. Remember that just one week ago we had a Winter Storm Warning for much of the area and 5 to 8 inches of snow fell south of Marathon county. This time around there is only a Winter Weather Advisory for Iron and Ashland counties later tonight through Wednesday. It is looking unlikely that central Wisconsin (and much of the northwoods south of highway 70) will see much snow over the next couple of days.

The only remaining wild card is a second part of this storm system that will be moving over lake Michigan Wednesday night and Thursday morning. If it tracks a little farther west, it could bring a short burst of snow to the eastern part of the viewing area, east of Marathon county.

If you are trying to plan some outdoor activities, Friday looks to be the day. We should have more sunshine and high temps in the 60s. Over the weekend more rain and cooler temps are likely.

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And now for a cool time-wasting nature video (what else are you going to do on your lunch break?). This courtesy of Terje Sorgjerd filming in the Canary Islands. My favorite parts are the scenes of the stars and the Milky Way moving through the night sky and the undulation of the fog as it forms and dissipates.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Nature

It is looking like 2008 all over again. Not so much in the weather trend but in the price of gas. Since I blog about AGW, Peak Oil, and alternative energy so often, it is something I am fairly familiar with. What happened in 2008? The same thing that happened in 2005 after hurricane Katrina. The price of gas rose up to $4.00 per gallon. This seems to be the price point where a lot of people start complaining and calling for heads to roll – as if cheap gas were a natural or constitutional right – as if everyone has the right to make money EXCEPT oil and gas companies. With much peril, I am going to go against the (popular media) grain once again. Feel free to disagree in the comment section.

I am affected just as much by high gas prices as everyone else, but I don’t complain. The weather is turning nice enough to ride my bike to work. I am just waiting for it to get out of the shop (Spring tune-up). If my commute was too pricey, I would just move closer to work. If I couldn’t afford to heat my home, I would get a smaller house, move in with family, or get roommates. If my vehicle was a gas-guzzler (it’s not) I would get something smaller. I really know how to stick it to those “evil” oil companies. More people should do the same. It would help keep the environment a lot cleaner.

Last week the Department of Justice also said it was going to (attempt to) stick it to the oil companies and speculators. I am all for prosecuting those who break current law regarding monopolies and price fixing. However, this is a lot different than the language coming from the media. What we hear is that oil and gas companies are engaged in some ill-defined “price gouging”, that the oil companies are making “obscene profits”, and futures speculators are running wild, as if there was a law against speculation. It seems to me these are terms and phrases used to drum up hatred against certain industries and people and not useful in “correcting” the situation. I have covered the price gouging and profits angle before so I won’t go into depth here. Suffice it to say that the price and corporate profits are important signals in the marketplace that we should not ignore or try to control much. Meddling creates nasty side effects like gas shortages and wars. Also, I am not sure why shareholders and workers at oil and gas companies should suffer when the price of gas goes up (as compared to commuters traveling 50 miles one way to work in a Hummer).

On the speculation angle, it is fairly easy to understand. We all speculate. If it becomes clear to me that the price of gas is going to hit $5 or $6 later this Summer, I will probably go out and buy 50 gallons while the price is still $3.93. If I do this, should I go to jail? I don’t think so. The “speculators” that you hear about on the news are doing the same thing, just on a larger scale. They are going to buy oil now (low) and sell it later (high). If the price goes up, it is a good investment. If the price goes down, they lose money. Some people buy the commodity (oil) and have it delivered (the physical stuff) for use or sale. Others buy and trade futures contracts like stocks or bonds in the hopes of making some money off of the transaction. This has been going on throughout human history. Sure it is digitized and sped up in the modern day, but the mechanics are the same – people are making decisions about the future price and availability of the things they need or want. Pursuing speculators as criminals will lead to distortions in the market that could be much worse than anything we are experiencing right now.

That being said, there is a problem in the futures market right now, and it has nearly nothing to do with the oil and gas companies. The resource companies are busy providing very essential things to the human population around the planet and actually earn their money (you might think they earn too much, but at least they are providing something). Alternatively, there is some new money in the commodity market right now that was not earned. Some big speculators (big banks & hedge funds) are using money that was essentially given to them by the Federal Reserve Bank of the U.S. The various federal programs and central bank operations that were meant to “save” the banking system in late 2008, ending up putting a lot of new money and zero interest money into the world monetary system. What would you do if you were given or loaned “free money” and wanted to make a profit with it? Speculating in gold and oil lately has been a very profitable trade. I don’t mind people speculating with their own money because then they are taking on personal risk and are less likely to drive wild price swings. When speculators use free money, they tend to take bigger risks and drive the price up more than the market would otherwise. This should be looked into, but don’t hold your breath.

Another aspect of the “free money” coming into the system that most people are unaware of is inflation. The Federal Reserve has pumped (some estimates) up to 2 trillion new dollars into the monetary system. Money, just like gold, oil, or beanie babies becomesless valuable when there is more of it. Oil sales around the world are priced and conducted in U.S. dollars. If dollars are becoming less valuable then people who are selling oil will want a higher price. It is easy to understand. Say you live in XYZland and have an oil well in your back yard. You sell oil to the U.S. Last year you sold 1 barrel for $100. You like to buy things with your oil revenue. Let us say you really like mac-n-cheese and each box costs $1. Last year you could buy 100 boxes of mac-n-cheese with your $100 in oil revenue. Now this year (because of the increased money supply and inflation), the dollar is only worth 75 cents. Now when you sell your barrell of oil for $100, you are really only getting $75 of purchasing power. Sadly, you can only buy 75 boxes of mac-n-cheese and your family has to go hungry for a few days during the year. What would you do? You would charge more for your oil in order to get the same purchasing power you had the previous year – perhaps $125. This is exactly what is happening in the real world with the inflating supply of U.S. dollars. Countries that produce oil are charging more because the dollars they get from us are becoming increasingly worthless (down to 0.74 today). If they conducted their transactions in gold or other currencies, they might not have this problem, but the dollar is the world’s reserve currency and most resource transactions are conducted in dollars. Bad for us in this situation.

Feel free to disagree in the comment section. I know I have staked out an alternative and unpopular stance, but I feel it is more fruitful to get to the core of the problem. Bashing oil and gas companies, taxing profits, hanging speculators, and implementing price controls might feel and sound good, but we are unlikely to get good results. I hope that by identifying some other potential problems causing the high price of gas, that this time around, in contrast to 2005 and 2008, we can come to better solutions a bit quicker, with less hatred.

The most basic solution is to drill for more oil and gas – especially in areas of the world that are not as prone to revolution as the Middle East. Barring that, conserving more is more personally rewarding and better for the environment. Getting to the core of the current problem means stopping inflation and ending the stream of “free” money to the big speculators.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Peak Oil

The area from the Southern Plains northeast toward Kentucky and the Ohio Valley will be dealing with some brutal weather once again from Monday through Wednesday.  There is a moderate risk of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center Monday around Arkansas.  Large hail, damaging winds, and several strong tornadoes are likely as a strengthening low pressure system slides up into Missouri.

Severe T-storm Outlook for Monday from SPC

  The storms will race northeast and push toward the Paducah area Monday night.  This is a part of the country hit very hard already this spring, as the main jet stream energy has been tracking over this vicinity repeatedly.  Beyond the damage that is expected from wind, hail, and tornadoes, flooding is ongoing in many of those areas.  Unfortunately, it will likely get worst.  Check out the tremendous rains that are expected in that part of the country from Monday through Wednesday. 

Projected Rainfall Totals from Mon. - Wed. from HPC

Posted under Flooding, forecast, Severe Weather, Spring, Storms, Tornadoes, Weather NEws

Just continuing to follow up on the progress theme from yesterday’s entry. There are so many positive alternative energy developments that I can hardly keep up. It is no wonder that carbon emissions in the U.S. continue to decline.

Other than making your house more attractive to buyers and producing some electricity, future solar panels might also shave 40% off the cost of heating your home. Scientists at Wake Forest University have developed solar panels that produce electricity  as well as harvest heat from the sun. Basically, they are combining photovoltaic cells with solar thermal fluid/tubing. With each new invention and permutation, solar power comes closer to being competitive with fossil fuels.

Even within the realm of the internal combustion engine, there is some progress to be had. I just had to touch on this story because lasers are cool. Engineers are working on using lasers to replace spark plugs. This is not a new idea. The problem in that past was that the lasers were too big to fit on a normal engine. Now, the lasers have become miniaturized and could be coming to a car near you.

Even without lasers, the amount of mileage one can squeeze out of a gallon of gas is much more than you would expect. The winning “car” of the most recent Shell Eco-Marathon got 2564.8 mpg. A lot of the efficient design of these eco-cars could be scaled up and into mass produced cars, however, people would have to get used to the more aerodynamic look.

Speaking of cars, I am in the market for a different vehicle. My old rusty but trusty cars are getting long in the tooth. A couple years ago, I swore I would be buying an electric vehicle for my next purchase. Unfortunately, the newest EVs are quite expensive. I am looking for something in the $10,000 range at the most. Do any of you know of places to shop for used electric vehicles? I am not against buying one of the glorified golf carts – otherwise known as neighborhood electric vehicles that only go 25 or 35 mph. How about conversion kits? Does anyone know of any good ones? I thank you in advance for any input.

Have a nice evening! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Technology

One good thing about Good Friday falling on April 22nd, is that there is less news about Earth Day. It is not that the message of Earth Day celebrations is bad or that people should ignore the environment, it is just that I grow weary of incessant talk about how the earth and every living thing on it, is going to heck-in-a-handbasket. Warnings are good, but too much apocalypse makes the ears go deaf.

I was surprised to find only one Earth Day article early this morning  (on the websites I regularly check). The author analyzes the difference in conservation efforts between people who are gravely concerned about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and those who are not. It turns out that people who are not gravely concerned about AGW conserve and recycle just as much as the worrywarts. Other incentives, like saving money, and keeping the neighborhood clean are very good at convincing people to live more ”green” (as I have noted in past blog entries).

The one aspect of lowering the human environmental impact that I still do not see much talk of, even on earth day, is population control. As I have mentioned previously, I am not a proponent of draconian population control measures. I am fine with people pursuing genetic progeny. However, I am surprised that more hard-core environmentalists do not preach population control. According to current environmentalist thinking, humans are the greatest “illness” this planet has ever seen. Thusly, the surest and fastest way to lessen our impact is to have less kids and allow the population to decline. Instead it seems most of the debate surrounds the topic of geo-engineering the climate - which is more risky and divisive. Let me know (in the comment section) if you have seen any environmentalists talking about population control lately.

I wouldn’t mind it if the population goes down in coming decades (because I like big wide open natural spaces), but if the population continues to grow, I am confident we will still find ways to maintain a high standard of living and have less impact on the environment. We will do it like always – through technological progress and innovation. As evidence, here are a few positive developments in technology and alternative energy:

• A couple of solar manufacturing plants in the U.S. have closed recently but GE plans to build a new one – which could end up being the largest country. I just hope they are not relying too much on government subsidies and grants to get it done. Given the isolvency of the U.S., that type of money might dry up soon. Google is also investing in a large solar plant in Germany.
• On the topic of solar panels, more of the suns rays could be absorbed through the use of nanowires. Nanotechnology is one area of advancement that could pay big dividends for the solar industry in the near future.
• How about this highly theoretical discovery – using the magnetic component of light to create usuable energy. Most solar cells today use the electric component of the suns rays to generate electricity. By using the magnetic component, newer solar cells could be made of different forms of glass instead of semiconductor material, and thus be dramatically cheaper.
• A method of harvesting more of the sun’s energy that is more achievable in the near term is using the waste heat thrown off by solar cells. The waste heat could be used to heat your water, or it could be used to desalinate water. Both are being investigated.
• Even something as simple and as cheap as using black nanoparticles can possibly increase the efficiency of thermal solar installations.
• On the grander scale, a few folks are still talking about beaming solar energy down from space, and even the moon. I am not sure if this will ever get off the ground, but at least people are thinking out of the box.
• As far as getting all of that solar generated electricity into our homes and cars goes, better batteries will be key. Thankfully, a new company in California has developed a new technique to more quickly screen and test which battery technologies  are feasible.
• When those batteries go into future electric cars, they might drive electric motors on each wheel instead of one central motor. Japan’s SIM-Drive Coropration has developed a prototype vehicle that has in-wheel motors and tests show the car has a range of 200 miles.
• One country that might use most of the new electric cars is Israel. Not only are they agressively working with Project Better Place, they are planning on using 10% renewable energy by 2020 but research shows that they could eventually derive 90% of their energy needs through solar power.
• If you are thinking about powering just a tiny part of your country (your house) with solar cells, it is probably a good investment. Recent research in California shows that homes have solar panels sell at a $17,000 premium.

Progress like this continues everyday which should helps us to live greener, even with the current and growing population.

Have a pleasant Easter weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Environment, Nature