It’s time for that amazing annual event known as fall color.  You probably have spotted a few rogue trees and bushes ablaze in yellow, orange, or red already.  The color popping foliage will advance rapidly over the next few weeks.   

The latest fall color report from the Wisconsin Department of Tourism indicates Lac du Flambeau could be one of the top spots to visit this weekend with 50 to 74% of peak color reported.  Numerous spots in the north half of the state are reporting 24 to 49% of peak color including Price County, Minocqua, Eagle River, Antigo, Medford, Marshfield, and Wisconsin Rapids.  Also Richland County is southwest Wisconsin is in that range as well. 

Spooner is reported to be about 2 weeks from peak color.  Green Bay, Madison, and Milwaukee are all reporting from 0 to 24% color with peak expected by mid-October or so.  You can read the entire Wisconsin fall color report including upcoming special events, attractions, and the in various fall color hot spots around the state.  Just go to the following link.  http://www.travelwisconsin.com/fallcolor_report.aspx#/Report.

WHY DO LEAVES TURN COLORS IN THE FALL?

The simple answer is that leaves stop producing chlorophyll as sunlight and temperature decreases in the fall.  As the green chlorophyll pigment fades away, the other colored pigments which have been in the leaves all along show up.  It’s actually a complicated and cool process.  The USDA Forest Service has put together a fine, detailed explanation of the chemicals and science involved. Check it out here.

INTERESTING TREE RELATED SPOT

Speaking of things you may want to check out sometime, how about the Grove of Great American Trees in Washington D.C.?  I just learned about this for the first time this week.  Apparently some government officials thought it was important to have a place set aside to honor and dedicate to the official various state trees of the country.  There is much history and often times economic, cultural, and environmental significance attached to the state trees.  So a 30 acre tract of land in the D.C. area was planted in 1989 with groves of state trees.  For example, for the Wisconsin grove, you would find sugar maples. The planted grovers are mingled with some native large trees which were on the land already.  They help to provide shade for some of the state trees that need it to thrive.

 Each state’s grove is labeled with interesting and educational information posted nearby.  There are a handful of states such as Alaska, Hawaii, and Florida that don’t have their official state tree growing at this park, but rather have substitutes.  I’m assuming the climate of Washington D.C. isn’t suitable for their particular species.  Well, since I’m a tree buff, I hope to see this Grove of Great American Trees someday.

Well, the sunshine will be returning a bit this weekend and for sure next week.  So I hope you have a chance to get outside and soak up the emerging fall colors a good bit!

Posted under Ecology, Fall Color, Seasonal Items

I was gone over the last few days doing a little camping and fishing. This time around I was fishing for a few trout and trying to catch some salmon during the “fall run”, when the salmon and other traditional lake species (lake trout, rainbow trout/steelhead) head upstream in small tributaries to lake Michigan and lake Superior. It was very nice to be out in the wilderness and away from the noise of society.

As far as the fishing goes, I would say I did good. The biggest ”keeper” I caught was a 17 inch brown trout. It was the biggest I have ever caught, but not a trophy by any means. I only caught one salmon that was within the size limit – about 15inches. I was really hoping for the 25 to 30 inch salmon, but they were not running up the streams quite yet. Maybe next year. If you are looking for some fishing advice, for trout or otherwise, I don’t have a whole lot to offer that you cannot read elsewhere on the internet. The main thing is that if your line is in the water, your chances of catching any size fish go up. You cannot just go out there once or twice a year and expect to catch big muskies or lunker bass. If that is all you have time for, then you would be best to hire a guide.

The one thing about trout fishing in Wisconsin is that it is hard to find a “secret” fishing spot that not many other people fish. If you are like me, trout fishing is about solace and enjoying nature. You have a natural tendency to find a quiet spot to enjoy nature as well as hope to catch a nice fish. These spots are very hard to find. I can’t tell you how many times I have walked a mile or two through woods or water to find a nice quite spot that not many people fish. The exploration is fun, but – usually - unrewarding in the end. It typically ends with me stumbling upon another trout fisherman who walked the shorter and well beaten path from a logging road or other such trail. If there is not another fisherman at the “nice spot” which I found, then there are usually plenty of footprints on the banks or dozens of old worm containers. I used to get annoyed by this, but gradually I came to accept that there are very few “secret spots” to fish. If you want to have a chance at catching fish or getting a big fish, then follow the well worn path (or put your boat in at the popular lake). People fish these spots often because they are good fishing spots. If you find a popular spot empty, then go for it, even if it looks like there have been a thousand fisherman there already this year. To increase your chances of getting a good spot to yourself, go on a weekday when it is raining.

My recent trip was quite nice but on the way back I heard something on the radio that disturbed me. It was that the newest TIMES ATLAS of the WORLD greatly exaggerated the ice loss on Greenland. I wrote about it recently here. Originally, they claimed to have talked to the NSIDC to generate their map. Once the story broke, the NSIDC claims to have never talked to the Times Atlas people. Now even the Times Atlas people are unsure if they ever officially consulted with the NSIDC.

I really hate being taken for a fool and I apologize for sharing an article with such egregious errors. When I first read it, in the back of my mind, I was thinking I should run a quick calculation to figure out if the cliamed 15% ice melt was in the ballpark, based on recent sea level rise and projections for the future. What is the old saying “trust but verify”. This time around, a government office might not be to blame, but climate science has sure had it’s share of black marks in recent years. Exaggerated data has made it into IPCC reports, the climate gate emails revealed that some top climatologists were actively trying to squash dissenting views (through less-than-scrupulous means, not through open normal public debate), and it seems many are still automatically rejecting adjunct theories. I should be more wary, but I know many scientists and I know that most are honest and open. In the future, I’ll try to filter some of the more interesting climate stories before giving them my stamp of approval.

On the subject of Greenland melting (the ice has receded a little, just not the mammoth amount claimed by the Times Atlas), reminds me of the recent Maldives publicity stunt to draw attention to AGW. The island nation held a meeting underwater, to show what it might be like a few decades from now if the water levels keep rising. I might be too trusting to root out climate exaggerations but I can spot hypocrisy from a mile away. The Maldives nation is asking for hundreds of millions, from the world, in order to deal with climate change. It is something I have blogged about in the past. It is a good read, check it out. Seeing that during their meeting underwater they were using so much modern technology derived from the use of fossil fuels and their economy relies upon and their wealth was built mostly upon tourists visiting their islands – using copious amounts of fossil fuels, shouldn’t they take at least partial blame? Shouldn’t they give up their scuba gear, modern conveniences, and tourism industry in order to show good faith in their lawsuit?

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Arctic climate, Climate Change, Nature, Weather NEws

The Climate Prediction Center has released the 30-Day Outlook for October and if you like dry and mild conditions this time of the year, you may be in luck.    The outlook actually paints an areas from the Southern Rockies and Plains up through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with above normal temperatures for October.  It also shows drier than normal conditions from the Southern Plains up through Wisconsin.  While this would increase the fire danger around here, it is horrible news for Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, and parts of Louisiana and Arkansas that have been under such extreme drought for nearly a year.  There appears not to be any substantial relief in sight.

A La Nina pattern has developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and it will likely strengthen some and linger through next spring.  Remember it was a strong La Nina last fall through spring that was blamed in large part for the extreme drought in the southern U.S.  They typical don’t get much storm activity down there over winter with a La Nina.  It is just the opposite with El Nino.  It is typically wetter than normal from California to Florida.  I guess they’ll have to hope for some tropical storms to move in yet this early autumn to drive some rain in, hopefully without the wind damage and surge.

I agree with the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for October in Wisconsin.  The longer term computer models are showing a large high ridge of high pressure developing in the middle and upper atmosphere over the central U.S. next week that will likely maintain itself off and on through at least mid-October.  The chart below is a model prediction in the mid levels of the atmosphere for next Wednesday, September 28th.  The main storm track or jet stream is projected to run from California northeast up into central Canada which would keep any cooling or rain bearing storms away from our area.

Model projection for mid-atmospheric pattern Wed. Sept. 28th

Well this pattern would be ideal for Wisconsin farmers for harvesting and pleasant for all the folks wanting to view fall colors as well.  Now we can just be patient and see how it pans out!

Posted under Ag Weather, CPC Outlook, Drought, ENSO Update

Enter today to win some great prizes from the R-Store!

Are you ready to enter a contest with truly epic prizes?  It’s your turn to take a hand at forecasting with our Storm Track 9 “Guess the first inch of snowfall in Wausau” contest!

It’s simple.  What date do you envision as the first day of the year where we see at least one inch of snow fall in Wausau?  Send in your guess by midnight on September 30^th and then sit back and wait. 

Guess the right date and we’ll enter you into a drawing for some very cool prizes.  First place takes home a year’s worth of FREE car washes courtesy of the R-Store (that’s a whopping $500 value!) plus a $50.00 R-Store gift card.   

Second place goes home with a $150.00 R-Store gift card, third place a $100.00 R-Store gift card and fourth place enjoys a $50.00 R-Store gift card.  And everyone else who picks the correct date will get a free premium car wash courtesy of the R-Store. 

So how do you enter?  It’s a snap.  Follow this link to our Storm Track 9 homepage.  It has all the details you’ll want to see.  Follow the banner link directing you to the contest where you can enter online. 

Have your cell phone in hand?  That works too!  Text the word “Snowfall” along with your guess to “28214”.  Or if you want to help keep the Postal Service afloat, you can mail in your guess to:

Good luck!

Posted under Community, Environment, Nature, Seasonal Items, Snowmelt 2011, Winter Weather

Australian researchers discover an animal that's been there all along!

“We’re very pleased to announce that yes it is a new dolphin species and I have called it Tersiops Australis and with the common name of the Boanan following Aboriginal narrative meaning large fish of the porpoise kind.”

That’s the word from Dr. Kate Charlton-Robb, researcher at Monash University who discovered the new species of dolphin in the waters off Australia. 

According to Radio Australia it’s just the third new type of dolphin found anywhere on Earth since the 1800s. 

The dolphins frequent the waters between Tasmania and the Aussie State of Victoria.

“We had a look at their genetics quite some years back and started to see that they were very different from the two formally recognized bottlenose dolphins” Charlton-Robb said during a radio interview. 

“We’ve now had a look at the skull morphology and the external characteristics of the animal and feeding ecologies and things like that … and in every case we’ve found that they are very much differentiated from the other two bottlenose [dolphins], so hence the new species.”

To learn more, follow this link to Radio Australia’s transcripts of their interview, where you can listen to Dr. Charlton-Robb talk about her newest discovery.

Posted under Ecology, Environment, Nature, Oceans, Science, Travel, Uncategorized

The possible record low we had been expecting for this morning did not materialize. It is the peril of weather forecasting. Mother nature, the weather, is chaotic and doesn’t always follow the script. A weak weather system moving through Iowa had enough moisture moved close enough to Northcentral Wisconsin to bring some heazy clouds. Low temps in the central and southern part of the area only dropped into the mid to upper 30s. In the far north where skies remainded clear low temps dropped into the 20s, as low as 23 in Land O’ Lakes!

The weather doesn’t always follow “the script” in the present day, but it might in the future, to a degree. As you know in the AGW theory and debate, it is claimed that humans are in near complete control of the climate and are making the earth warmer. While I have always held that we do affect the climate to some degree, I don’t think we control it as competely as mainstream AGW theorists do.

Because of the grave threat of environmental apocalypse heralded by some environmentalists and climatologists, some forward thinking individuals have been designing ways to help cool the planet. One proposed geo-engineering scheme involves putting sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere. Sulfur dioxide reflects sunlight and thus could cool the planet by a degree or two. It is the same thing that happens when a large volcano erupts and sends ash (and sulfur dioxide) high into the atmosphere. Researchers in England are testing out a balloon-and-hose method to implement this geo-engineering idea.

I don’t like the idea of putting stuff into the air in order to reflect sunlight and cool the planet (I would rather just take the carbon out of the air if it came to that). However, if the climate “goes to hell in a hand-basket” (however unlikely), then it makes sense to at least investigate mitigation methods, to see if it is technologically and economically feasible. In the big scheme of things, I actually would not mind having more control over the weather and I think it is our destiny. We have already created small climate controlled environments – everything from houses to stadiums. Next up is the whole earth. While I like exciting changeable weather as much as the next guy, it can be quite dangerous. The tornadoes that hit Alabama and Missouri this year killed people. If we could have stopped those tornadoes before they hit populated areas, we should have. Hurricanes, lightning, droughts, and floods kill thousands of people around the world every year. We have done a lot to protect ourselves from these threats and the next step will be to move into the air and alter the source. This might not seem very “environmental”, I know. I am quite the naturalist myself, but I enjoy life as well, and mother nature could care less if I live or die. I care. I would support environmentally friendly methods of altering dangerous weather.

Have a pleasant weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Environment, Records

On the eve of a likely record low temperature here in Wausau (32 is the old record for Friday), it is interesting to once again note how things have generally been warmer over the last three decades. One of the most telling facts is that we have not had a record low in Wausau during the Winter (months of December, January, February) since way back in February of 1996 (according to the records I have here at the office). 15 years is a long time to go without a record low. We have had plenty of record lows outside of winter, but the new record highs over the last 15 years have outnumbered new record lows by a great deal.

Looking at how the temperatures trend through the years, I often muse at how short term our personal experiences are – how our view of history is often generational. The record low temperature that will likely fall tomorrow morning is very old – set back in 1916 – but I’ll bet it was much colder than that before we started keeping official records here in Northcentral Wisconsin (the 1890s). I am confident in this because we were just emerging from the “Little Ice Age“. It was a time when glaciers advanced and ice caps grew. Of course, it was much colder on September 16th about 12,000 years ago as well because we were in a major ice age. With a big sheet of ice over most of the state, the temperature probably rarely rose above 32.

Now we are in an age of warmer weather and nature is responding as one would expect. As I mentioned a couple days ago, glaciers and ice in Greenland are melting. Here is a cool animation that shows some of the changes. The new “land” revealed by the melting ice is now being detailed on Time’s “Atlas of the World”. So now Greenland is returning to the state it was likely in from 600 to 1000 years ago, during the Medieval Warm Period. During that time Vikings settled the land. It wasn’t an easy life but they survived for many decades before succumbing to the cold of the Little Ice Age. Knowing this history makes me wonder how people can use the terms irreversible, permanent, and forever when talking about anthropogenic global warming (AGW). In the article about the new atlas of the world, the writer says the ice loss is “permanent” and the “planet is being altered forever”. I doubt it. Although the “altered forever” phrase is true in a philosophical sense – in that any change on the planet – however innocuous – will “alter” the planet forever.

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It is that time of the week for a Drought Monitor update. Drought conditions are by no means bad in Wisconsin but the area of abnormally dry weather has expanded since last week. The dry area has expanded by nearly 10%. With not much rain in the forecast until Sunday, and even then with amounts not being particularly heavy, we might see the dry category expand a bit more next week.

The worst drought in the nation continues to be in Texas. Almost 90% of that state is in the worst drought category. The good news is that the cold high pressure system that is bringing record cold to our area is bring a lot more rain to north Texas and much of the desert southwest, so hopefully their drought situation will improve somewhat.

Have a pleasant Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Arctic climate, Drought, Records, Weather History

The last time it was this cold so early in the month of September was back in 2007.  We had a sharp polar blast that produced a record low of 30 degrees at the Wausau Downtown Airport on September 15th of  that year.  As it turned out, temperatures never got that cold again for the rest of the month.

Last year, 2010, we had our first frost in the Wausau area on the very last day of September.  Otherwise it was a rather warm month.  I remember an early September freeze a number of years back that came so sudden that it caused the leaves of the ash trees to fall off the very next day!  What was so interesting about that was the fact that the leaves were still perfectly green.  I’ll never forget that.  The green leaves were kind of solid and stiff and you could actually hear them hit strike the ground as they fell straight down. There was no wind that morning.  It must have been such a shock to the trees that they just couldn’t take it.  Normally green ash trees turn a yellow-brownish color for a week or two before the leaves fall off.

Well, now that the background is set.  Let’s just say it, we could set a record low temperature in the Wausau area Friday morning.  The record low is 32 degrees from 1916 and we are forecasting the low around 30-31 degrees at the airport.  If this happens it will be one of only a handful of record low temperatures we’ve broke in the last 10 years in Wausau.  Some of that is probably due to global warming.  Some may be from expanded areas of buildings and pavement around the metro area which increases the urban heat island effect.

It will be interesting to see if this cold weather accelerates the fall colors.  It usually does.  You might be wondering if the cold weather and fall are setting in early?  Actually this spell looks more like an aberration than anything.  The computer models over the next two weeks generally keep a mild pattern around with temperatures at or above normal at times.  There could be a few bursts where readings actually get up toward 80 degrees again.

So I guess you can look at this cold snap as a trial run of real autumn.  It is giving you a chance to find the coats and gloves and blankets again.  Then you can set them aside for the eventual full fledged return of the cold air.

Posted under Fall, Fall Color, Freeze, Records

The cold blast of air continues to be the main theme in the weather for today and the rest of the week. It will be cold enough tonight that some patchy frost might form, but it is not a guarantee. The threat is great enough that the National Weather Service has issued a FROST ADVISORY for effective tonight into Thursday morning for Ashland, Price, Taylor, Clark, Jackson, Juneau, Adams, Wood, Portage, Waushara, Marathon and Lincoln counties.

The northeastern part of the area might not have any frost because there will be some lake effect cloudiness and some wind continuing out of the northwest. Some of the clouds might even hang around the Wausau area later tonight and thus I am forecasting a low of 34 in town. Even though I do not expect an official frost in the city, I am not going to leave any vulnerable plants outside. If we don’t have an official frost in Wausau tonight, it will likely happen Thursday night into Friday morning. We should have clear skies and light winds on Thursday night. Low in the northwoods will likely drop into the 20s. In Wausau I am forecasting 31. It will likely be the effective end of the growing season and it would break a record in Wausau. The record low on Friday is 32, set back in 1916. It is interesting to note that there was quite a wicked cold spell back in 1916 (besides just the record low on the 16th of September). In September of 1916 there was a record cold high temperature of 44 on the 15th, a record cold high temperature of 38 on the 16th (Yikes!), a record low of 32 on the 16th, a record low of 28 on the 17th, and a record low of 28 on the 18th. So if you don’t like the weather today, just be glad that you did not have to suffer through 1916. On the flip side, it was quite hot during this time of year in 1939. During September of 1939 we had record high temps in the 90s for 4 days in a row! It was 92 on the 13th, 94 on the 14th, 93 on the 15th, and 92 on the 16th

If we do get a frost in Wausau on Friday morning, it would be about 2 weeks earlier than normal. Check out this graphic to see when the first frost usually happens. For most of our area, it usually occurs between the 20th and the 26th of September. Wausau used to fall closer to this date range, but in the last couple of decades the city has grown enough to impact the date of the first frost. The Urban heat island effect is likely what makes Wausau’s first frost now occur around October 1st.

If we do have a frost on Friday then we will also have a longer time to experience official “Indian Summer”. The first frost is of course one criteria in the definition of Indian Summer. For the full definition of Indian Summer we use here at StormTrak 9, check this past blog post.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Fall, Freeze, Records, Weather History

There is a big change in the weather today but the thing everyone is talking about is the smoke from the Minnesota wildfire. Tony mentioned it in a blog post recently and here is a link to an animation showing some of the smoke. Wildfires are quite typical in Canada and the Western U.S. every year and we do observe some of that smoke from time-to-time but most times it is not close enough to smell. The Pagami Creek fire ongoing in Minnesota is close enough that is smells like a campfire is burning right here in the office. It makes me want to take a vacation camping in the woods – just not in a spot with a wildfire. The cold air advection behind the cold front (that moved through last night) is also keeping the smoky air closer to the surface. The wind will turn more westerly this afternoon and early evening so that should take the smell away, but later tonight and tomorrow the wind will be out of the northwest again and might usher the smoke straight through our area.

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Besides wildfires, hurricanes, and blasts of cool air dominating the headlines this time of year, another item that catches attention in September is the amount of arctic sea ice. It has been predicted the arctic sea ice will disappear during the Summer within the next decade or two – due to anthropogenic global warming (AGW), and it will be devastating to the arctic region, and it will eventually mean the end of the biosphere, and many more bad things. Because of the various predictions, people watch the amount of ice quite closely to see if it keeps getting lower. 2007 was the year with the lowest amount of ice measured since 1979, when comprehensive instrumental monitoring began. There is other evidence, human and natural records, indicating that the arctic has been substantially ice free in the recent past (since the last ice age).

According to the NSIDC, this year will probably end up tying the recent record (2007) for the lowest extent of arctic sea ice. Prior to this year, the amount of Summer ice had been staying at or slightly above the 2007 record. If the gradual trend of warmer temps continues (whether by AGW or other natural forces) then I would expect the sea ice extent to get a little lower each year.

In other ice news, at least one ice expert was shocked at how much ice melted from a notable glacier in northwest Greenland. You can see the before and after pictures here. Apparently the area within the picture is quite large and to see it in person would be much more impressive. The pictures probably do not do it justice. Anyway, I wasn’t too shocked by the pictures, although I think it would be cool to see it in person. I have never been to Greenland.

Medvezhiy Glacier in Tajikistan

While many glaciers around the world are in retreat, it does not mean they do not grow or advance from time-to-time. Take a look at how dramatic the movement of the Medvezhiy glacier in Tajikistan has been. It has moved more in the last couple months than in the last 22 years.

Whether more ice is melting or not, the effect are not always what one might assume. As I noted a couple weeks back, the global sea level actually went down by quite a bit last year. It is likely a short term drop, but it reminds us that things do not always proceed in a linear fashion.

In any case, research has shown that sea levels can change quite abruptly while responding to cues from the climate, so the future will likely continue to surprise.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Arctic climate, Climate Change, Environment, Fire