In a nutshell October will go down in the record books as a mild and dry one in the TV-9 viewing area.  For Wausau the average high temperature was 59.9 degrees which is 4.5 degrees above normal.  The average low temperature in Wausau was 39.6 degrees which is 3.0 degrees above normal.  The majority of our warmer than normal weather came the first 10 days of the month, which was sunny and very summer like.  We had eight days in a row with highs in the 70s or low 80s.   It was spectacular Indian Summer weather.  Hopefully you had a chance to be outside in your short-sleeves engaged in your favorite recreation.  Heck with weather like that it was even a treat doing work in the yard or garden.

We only piled up 1.80″ of rainfall for the month in the Wausau area, which is about 1.14″ shy of normal.  The wettest day was October 13th when 1.17″ fell in Wausau with some of our western counties picking up 2 to 3″ of rain that day!  Snowfall was only a trace in Wausau while normal is about 1.4″.  There were some half inch snow accumulations north of Marathon County on the evening of the 25th.

Our lowest temperature in Wausau was 26 degrees on the 28th while the highest temperature was 80 degrees recorded on the 5th, 7th, and 8th.  We has lows in our area as cold as the upper 10s on a few mornings during the month.

Hope you had a good October, and now on to November!

Posted under Monthly Recap, Seasonal Items

Other than today being Halloween, it is also the day that the U.N. has designated as “7 billionth” person day. Read this past blog post for some of the details behind counting the population and why the 7 billionth person might not arrive until next year or much later. I understand the pressure put upon the U.N. for predicting (based on models) when the 7 billionth person will be born, but mainstream media sources are taking it too far, saying that it will be exactly today and that the person will be born in India. The fact is no one knows for sure how many people are on the planet and who will be the 7 billionth person or even where that person will be born. The date, the number, and the place, are a crap-shoot, essentially made up. To satisfy political and media pressure, someone (the U.N.) had to put a date on it.

Even though we don’t know the exact time or even if the world will ever reach 7 billion (a very remote possibility), we do know that 7 billion is a lot. It is a big number for a mammal on the earth. We basically dominate the planet. Here is a good article that puts some of it into perspective. I think there are enough people on the planet. If the population growth rate continues to decline and the population is lower in a couple of decades, I would be just fine with that. If the population continues to grow, hopefully we will be innovative enough to find ways to support a larger population and maintain a high quality of life.

One thing I have written about is how the American style of life (build, build build, expand, expand, expand), is probably not sustainable in the present day, much less the future. The Concrete Life, is a good blog post to review these thoughts. In the Concrete Life I brought to life the idea that we can no longer afford to support urban sprawl. Just this weekend I found someone one else who has written about this topic and presented it in a more graphical format. Check it out here. It might bring the financial aspects of sprawl into more focus. Interestingly, this presentation focuses on Minnesota (like I did) and shows how new infrastructure projects will cost much more than the tax-base can support.

Smog in Beijing

Not only can the American build, build, build, economy not be supported by current GDP, it can also lead to pollution problems. Luckily, here in the U.S. we got through our major pollution problems back in the late 1800s through the middle of the 1900s. Almost every metric of pollution in the air, water, and soil has gotten better over the last couple of decades. The types of pollution we deal with nowadays – light, noise, sprawl – is much less toxic than in the past. This is not the case in India and China. These countries are growing more wealthy and unfortunately seem to be following the American path. I would never deny anyone (Chinese or otherwise) their dream house, dream life, dream property/land, or business, I just hope they learn from our mistakes and don’t end up with millions of acres of unsustainable sprawl. It doesn’t look good right now. India and China have some of the worst air and water pollution in the world right now, including some of the worst mercury pollution. In just the last couple of days the U.S. embassy in Beijing declared the air hazardous for human health. The smog was so thick it caused flight cancellations and highways to be shut down.

Have a happy Halloween! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Pollution, Weather and Health

What a weekend for weather!  There’s a lot going on the next few days, here’s some of the highlights for all of you weather-holics! 

THE PERFECT STORM

The historic storm system that was portrayed in the blockbuster Hollywood movie took place this weekend back in 1991.  It took down the Andrea Gail fishing boat and made a major impact in the Canadian Maritimes and US Eastern Seaboard. 

If you’d like to learn more about this weather event, check out this informative website from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/satelliteseye/cyclones/pfctstorm91/pfctstorm.html.  It includes fascinating satellite images along with an in-depth analysis of what transpired. 

THE PERFECT STORM, PART TWO?

Well, it’s not the Perfect Storm, but it is impressive nonetheless!  A very early Nor’easter has flared up along the East Coast and by the time it’s over many people could see over a foot of snow!  In fact, areas of the country that sometimes don’t see measurable snow until December will be smashing records over the next two days! 

What makes the storm a bit more complicated it that many areas still have leaves on the trees.  That can be a real bear by bringing branches down and then taking out power lines.  At last check on Saturday evening, news outlets are saying nearly 1.7 million people have lost power at one point or another.  Certainly not a good situation to be in! 

NEW WEATHER SATELLITE SOARS SKYWARD

On Friday Oct. 28, NASA launched the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Preparatory Project, or NPP for short.  The satellite will help us take a closer look at short-term weather and long-range climate analysis. 

NASA has a nice write-up on the satellite’s launch available here: http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2011/oct/HQ_11-361_NPP_Launch.html.  The website includes links to learn more in-depth information for your reading pleasure!

Posted under International Weather, Natural Disasters, Oceans, Records, Science, Seasonal Items, Storms, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather, World Weather

I don’t do regular space news updates anymore but there are a couple of trends I have followed in past years which I feel need follow-ups from time-to-time. One of these topics is private space flight. Let us get real for a minute. The U.S. is some ungodly trillions in debt (that is trillions with a T). NASA is not going to be as much of a player in future human space flight and exploration. They still do great science work and robotic exploration, but if actual humans are going to move out into space, it will take private industry and collaborations among countries in order to do it. Deep down, NASA probably knows this as well, and it is evidenced buy NASA buying seats on future Virgin Galactic sub-orbital flights. Maybe they are just throwing a lifeline toward Virgin Galactic, but I think they know future budgets cuts are coming and Virgin represents a cheaper option going forward.

For the future launch of SpaceShipTwo, it appears things are going well in New Mexico. Virgin Galactic recently dedicated a new hangar at Space Port America. Now it is just waiting game for all the safety testing to be done. While future private astronauts are waiting to get to the edge of space, other companies are dreaming up other uses for “space planes”. Theoretically they could be used in commercial air travel. Airline company KLM is planning a supersonic “space plane” for regular air travel destinations. They figure with their plane, a person could fly half way around the world in about 2 hours. Right now it takes about 10 to 12 hours. One of the main problems will be noise, as supersonic airplanes create big sonic booms.

In other private space flight news, a small group of space enthusiasts recently tested out an air ship (blimp) in Nevada and reached a level higher than any other airship in human history – 95,000 feet. They did this on a budget of only $30,000! Wow! Other aerospace firms have spent millions over past decades in the same endeavor and have yet come up pretty much empty. Eventually they hope to reach an altitude of 27 miles. At this level they could end up launching spacecraft and satellites into orbit.

Don’t forget about Bigelow Aerospace as well. Even though they have not been in the news too much lately, they are still moving forward with their inflatable space stations. Apparently, there is high demand for their 6 person inflatable space station. Take a look at their latest accomplishments here.

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Lastly, here is the latest US Drought Monitor. No change in the conditions here in Wisconsin. Conditions have been quite good through most of the year. Texas is getting a little more rain (and snow) lately but they still have extreme or exceptional drought across most of the state.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Space

I was just remarking yesterday about how scientists with opposing views on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) have been involved in public disputes and even lawsuits, and low-n-behold today comes an article about why more of the general public is not as concerned about AGW as some climate scientists think they should be. I will try to help out a little here.

1. “Crying wolf” wears off after a while. I have been following the AGW story since the early 1990s. After two decades of hearing how we are on the precipice of environmental Armageddon, how the oceans are going to rise and drown most major coastal cities, how almost all life in the biosphere is going to die, how the earth is going to be torn apart, how most humans are going to die, how the earth is going to turn super hot like Venus, the message just doesn’t have as much impact with most people. What makes matters worse is when one of the main spokesperson’s for the environmental Apocalypse is someone who failed so spectacularly at predicting it so many times in the past. The warming temperatures, while real, have been so gradual that most people wonder what the fuss is about, especially after 20 years of hearing that we are all going to die very soon. If mainstream AGW theorists want to help the situation, they should tone down the extreme talk (or at least counsel the media to tone it down) and focus more on the effects that people will notice as time goes on (if the predictions are substantially correct).

2. Be the better person. This is a successful tactic that a few of the more outspoken AGW theorists have forgotten. Instead of responding with vitriol and fighting “flaming rhetoric with flaming rhetoric”, remain dignified and respond with the facts as they are known and the track record of the science and predictions.

3. Don’t use robots to do your debating. See here as well.

4. Keep repeating the “facts”. Keep building the knowledge base. In the article I linked above, John Sterman says “telling people facts doesn’t change their beliefs”. I know that it doesn’t seem that way many times, but the “facts” do win out, especially over time. The facts eventually win the argument almost every time. Trying to convince people with something other than facts (psychological tricks/methods) usually just makes them more skeptical. As an aside, make sure to hammer home the difference between fact and theory, between fact and prediction. Make sure no one is saying “it is a FACT that the earth will be 4 degrees warmer by 2100″. It isn’t. Even an average Joe knows that.

5. Acknowledge the miscues. This is part of being a scientist (or citizen) with character, and it is very difficult. It a temperature prediction or sea level rise does not come to pass, don’t twist the date or past words to make it seem like you are 100% correct all the time and absolutely infallible. Acknowledge the degree to which the prediction was off and suggest some reasons. Feel free to highlight all the correct predictions, just don’t deny that errors do occur.

6. Acknowledge that average people ARE weighing the pros and cons. Telling people they are idiots for not sacrificing their present comfortable lives to stop something that might happen 100 years from now is not a good strategy. Many people have heard the warnings and have seen the IPCC reports and are willing to make some changes, but they aren’t going to give up every modern convenience. Most people would rather work toward innovative solutions than shut everything down and go live in a tree or cave. Unfortunately, most proposals call for strictly regulating  and punishing people for the use of fossil fuels. Let us instead put our thinking caps on and find a better way forward.

7. Lead by example. Would it hurt for AGW theorists to take the lead in sacrificing a little to show they are concerned for the future? Maybe get off the grid by going solar at their home. Maybe install a geothermal heating system. Maybe hold the next conference by Skype instead of flying to some exotic location half way around the world. For those that are already making sacrifices (think – NOT Al Gore), make it known how your are reducing your impact. Nobody is going to accept big sacrifices on their life styles if they see Al Gore getting rich and consuming obscene amounts of resources.

By now, many media folk and climatologists are probably pulling their hair out and screaming at the computer that they do all of these things and it doesn’t help. Unfortunately, the people who make the most headlines and drive the perception are the ones with the most extreme positions, actions, and statements (Mann, Hansen, Ehrlich, Lovelock, etc…). Perhaps number 8 on the list could be some PR counseling.

It isn’t a mystery to me why AGW theory and predictions are not well received or believed by a segment of the public. The approach has been too aggressive and condescending for two decades. I see a few signs of changes lately and hopefully the public discourse will continue to improve.

Have a pleasant Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Environment, Weather NEws

I don’t know about you, but I have feeling a bit groggy and tired lately.  Perhaps it is just my body and mind adjusting to the shrinking daylight hours and the frequently gloomy skies this time of the year.  In any case, what better way to shake off the cobwebs than with a weather quiz.  Come on now, you can do it!  Don’t worry, you won’t get graded and I won’t tell your friends if you do poorly.  Just work through the questions below and test your weather IQ.  The answers are listed at the bottom.  HAVE FUN NOW and get those brain cells humming!

1. Which instrument measures air pressure, a hygrometer or a barometer?
2. Typhoons, hurricanes, and cyclones are really all the same storm but are just named according to region.  Where would you find a cyclone?
3. True or false.  The strongest tornado known is rated EF-5?
4. Do Chinook winds cause a warming or cooling effect?
5. Does the term cloud ceiling refer to the base of a cloud or the top of a cloud?
6. True or false.  When a low pressure system has an occluded front attached to it it means the storm is fully mature and in the weakening process.
7. Do the Great Lakes normally keep Wisconsin warmer or colder than areas just west of Wisconsin in the late fall?
8. Which cloud is lower in the sky, cirrus or stratus?
9. Rain that freezes into tiny ice pellets before reaching the ground is called what?
10. True or false.  Air pressure generally increases the higher up you go.
11. What is the lowest layer of the atmosphere called?
12. Is ozone in the stratosphere a helpful or harmful thing to living organisms?
13. True or false.  Carbon dioxide traps heat in the atmosphere.
14. Is the climate warmer in a large city compared to rural areas?
15. True or false.  Freezing rain can not occur when it is colder than 25 degrees F outside?
16. Vorticity is most closely associated with what?  hot air, spinning air, dry air
17. True or false.  It is usually colder at night when the sky is clear.
18. The normal annual precipitation for the Wausau area is about what?  20″, 30″, or 40″
19. Do supercell thunderstorms normally produce the strongest tornadoes?
20. Which state receives the most lightning?
21. True or false.  The Coriolis effect has to do with the rotation of the earth.
22. What is the coldest temperature on record for Wausau?  -15 F, -25 F, -40 F, -50 F

ANSWERS:

1. barometer, 2. Indian Ocean, 3. true, 4. warming, 5. base, 6. true, 7. warmer, 8. stratus, 9. sleet, 10. false, 11. troposphere, 12. helpful, 13. true, 14. yes, 15. false, 16. spinning air, 17. yes, 18. 30″, 19. yes, 20. Florida, 21. true, 22. -40 F

Posted under Education

In this past detailed blog post about “Openness and AGW” I predicted that Professor Michael Mann (an infamous climate researcher in the U.S.) would have to eventually release his University emails. It hasn’t happened yet but the professor is not helping himself. He has recently embroiled himself in some additional litigation over the words of another scientist, Dr. Tim Ball. Dr. Ball has poked fun and mocked Dr. Mann about his work on AGW. He reportedly said “Dr. Mann belongs in the state pen not at Penn State”, and other things which Dr. Mann claim are libelous. The lawsuit was filed in Canada. I am unsure when the trial will begin. The most interesting thing that could result is an in-depth discovery phase in which Dr. Mann’s emails are required to be released to the court and the defense. Given that Dr. Mann has been embroiled in controversy for several years now and has yet to release his University emails, makes it more likely that there are some damning communications within.

As if being involved in one lawsuit was not enough, Dr. Mann recently got in another dust-up in the U.S. – this time in the Vail Valley newspaper. They printed and article by climate scientist Martin Hertzberg. He criticized modern climate research and AGW theory as well as pilloried the IPCC. Dr. Mann quickly responded that the entire Hertzberg letter was false and defamatory. The paper temporarily removed the Herztberg letter from their online presence, but now it is back. If you like to read about this type of drama, here is a recap of the back-n-forth.

In related news, a recent survey found that 72% of people support geo-engineering the climate. I would like to think that humans are becoming very forward thinking about place in the universe and their history and destiny as “tool-makers”, but more than likely more people are becoming worried about AGW and all the apocalyptic predictions they see in the media every day. Geo-engineering the climate probably seems like a sensible plan to many. Putting something in the sky to shade/cool the earth a little could be a small price to pay. Considering our history of successfully engineering our way out of problems, it would seem like the most natural solution. In addition, some people are probably against the other plan of action – higher prices and more regulations on energy production and usage.

I have often argued that we should “engineer” the climate or control the weather to some degree. Humans as a whole have tamed most of the planet and deadly weather should be the next target. If we could have disrupted the tornadoes from earlier this year before they hit populated areas we should have. If we could manipulate the future climate so that it stays in an optimum range of temperature and precipitation we should. I would rather avoid the next ice age than huddle along the equator with 7 billion other people.

Have a pleasant Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change

I was quite upset this morning when I read that spectacular northern lights were out last night. It is fairly rare to see northern lights in our area, and they are hard to predict, so when they do occur I always hope to be awake and out in the night air too see them. Given that I wake up during the wee early morning hours in order arrive at work on time, I would expect to have a better chance than most to see the northern lights. But I missed them. By the time I woke up this morning, clouds were already in the area. From reports I have see and read, the lights were out from sunset onward.

What makes this episode particularly depressing is that the northern lights were spectacular. Judging by the pictures, it looks like they were the best since 1989. Anyway, the best I have seen. The northern lights last night were farther south than usual being seen all the way down to Arkansas. Check SpaceWeather for a recap of the event and pictures from many different states.

October 24 Auroras

What makes this even more galling is that even though the geomagnetic storm was not well predicted days in advance, it was noticed at 1pm yesterday afternoon by satellites orbiting the earth. A fellow in Madison (Randy Halverson) was alert to the short-term forecast of auroras (northern lights) and got these beautiful pictures. I guess I should pay a little closer attention to geomagnetic storm alerts. I used to check the forecast on a daily basis, but after the sun went into a very quiet spell during 2009 and 2010, I stopped watching because it seemed there would never be northern lights again. The good news is that the solar cycle (sunspots and flares) is more active now and it is supposed to remain active into 2012. This means there should be better than average opportunities to see the northern lights. During the winter, the viewing is often better because of the longer darker nights and the clear dry air.

If anyone happened to get pictures of the northern lights last night, feel free to send them to weather@waow.com and perhaps I can show them on the morning show later this week.

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From a glowing sky to a glowing ocean, researchers now think they have discovered what cause large patches of the ocean to glow bright blue. It is possible that plankton (dinoflagellates) are creating all of this light. They have been known to possess the capability of bio-luminescence and now scientists have (possibly) figured out how it happens through the motion of the water disturbing the flow of electrical current through the body of the plankton .

Plankton Glowing in the Ocean

But why would large areas of the ocean glow with the light of these plankton? It is likely happening during rare large blooms of this particular plankton, similar to how red tides sometimes occur. The plankton just take over an area of the ocean to the detriment of other life. They sometimes produce higher concentrations of toxic chemicals due to their over-abundance.

The glowing blue ocean had been a reported for centuries, but was not confirmed by satellite until 2005. I can’t imagine how eerie and beautiful it would be to travel through a bright blue glowing ocean at night. Don’t hold your breath for seeing this phenomena anytime soon. These blooms are probably more difficult to predict in space and time than the northern lights. It would be a rare occurrence indeed to see both at the same time!

Have a fine Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Nature, Oceans, Space, Viewer pictures

The majestic whooping cranes were on the verge of extinction in the 1940s.  Today, there are about 575 known birds with about 400 of those in the wild.  Hopefully the upward trend will continue.   Through the efforts of Whooping Crane Eastern Partnership (WCEP), 96 juvenile whooping cranes have been released into the wild to date.  Eight of those were set loose Sunday, October 23rd at the Horicon National Wildlife Refuge in Dodge County, WI.  The young cranes were put into the company of older cranes from whom the young birds will learn the migration route southward.

The group along with Operation Migration using ultralight aircraft began leading another group of 10 young whooping cranes south on October 9th.  They took off from the White River Marsh State Wildlife Area in Green Lake and Marquette Counties in Wisconsin.  They will be leading the birds all the way down to Florida for the winter.

This is really exciting that humans, machines, and birds can work together for the common good!  If you would like to learn much more about whooping cranes, their migrations, and these projects please visit http://www.bringbackthecranes.org/

Posted under Community, Ecology, Nature

I often blog about the relentless and seemingly unstoppable trend toward greater efficiency (and automation) in the global economy. Even though we can measure some metrics of economic and environmental health that look downright depressing, overall, things keep getting better. Even though we see violence on TV everyday, the world we live in is orders of magnitude less violent and safer than decades and centuries ago. Even though pollution is bad in some areas and we seem hopelessly reliant on fossil fuels, 16% of the world’s energy needs are supplied by alternative sources and the percentage keeps growing every year (note: this has been revised down from 20% that was reported earlier this year). Even though there is plenty of gloom and doom in economic headlines and unemployment remains very high, people in all strata of income live more comfortably than those of the past. The typical “poor” person in the present-day U.S. has more comforts than kings and queens of medieval Europe.

Speaking of joblessness, here is a recent article about technological unemployment. Would you believe that top economists as far back as the 1930s were claiming that automation would leave everyone unemployed?

Google-Car drives itself

It didn’t happen then and there was not much evidence of it in the last few decades, but it seems to be rearing its head more and more nowadays. Even driving cars might become an obsolete “profession”. This might seem bad on its face, but self-driving cars would be more safe, and they would lead to greater fuel efficiency. See this gallery of recently-developed self-driving cars.

So it boils down to this: technological progress is taking away traditional human jobs faster than ever before, yet we keep getting more and cheaper products. Even though automation can cause some to despair (economically speaking), the overall conditions of human society keeps getting better. I think most of the despair comes from the theft of meaning. People who live self-defined meaningful lives also tend to be happier. Many times people derive a substantial amount of “meaning” for their lives through their job or career. Once a machine or computer takes that job, there is (at least a temporary) loss of meaning. This can be very disconcerting.

We could end unemployment easily by banning tractors, but the trade off would be lives of comfort for hard work in the elements harvesting food. Tractors were originally invented so that people no longer had to do all the back-breaking work of growing food by hand. I enjoy growing my own food on a small scale, but I would not want to return to the very hard times of old. I would rather deal with the philosophical angst of a future with increasing automation. If progress continues, it seems we will find more meaning in “life” through cooperation and evolution with our computers and machines.

For more on this topic see this good past blog post: Information as cheap commodity.

You might also want to check out this so-close-to-nonfiction-to-be-scary short story from Marshall Brain, called Manna.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Technology