Now that we are approaching the time of year when we turn our clocks back to standard time, it is time for me to bang the drum to eliminate this irrelevant and energy wasting ritual. As I have mentioned previously, the original reasons for changing our clocks with the seasons are no longer valid (and were probably based on shaky evidence to begin with). In addition, changing the clocks most likely causes us to waste energy and feel ill. For those politicians who want to promote better health and a clean environment, the easiest way would be to stop the illogical ritual of changing the clocks.

As far as saving energy goes, it would be best to stay on Standard Time, however, I wouldn’t mind if we were on either Standard or Daylight time, just as long as it stayed the same throughout the year. Judging by the reaction I got earlier this Spring, discussing the same subject – which was none – nothing is going to change anytime soon.

Another blog about ending DST.

A facebook page where you can vent about DST.

Clock-changing time is also the time of year when we start to think about snow. It has to happen eventually. We can’t have Indian Summer for the rest of the year. For those who entered the snowfall contest, it looks like a couple hints of snow could be headed our way over the weekend or early next week. Will there be an inch (the criteria to win  the contest)? Highly unlikely, but I would be derelict in my duty to not inform you.

A little wave of low pressure will move through the Midwest on Sunday morning and it will produce a 30% chance of rain. During the cool morning hours, there is a slight chance a little sleet of flakes of snow could mix in with the rain drops. Then next week Tuesday there will be a cold trough of low pressure (in the jet stream) forming over the mid section of the country. If any low pressure systems happen to develop within this jet stream flow it might be cold enough for a mix of rain and snow. Right now, at least one computer model is indicating a low pressure system will be around our area on next Tuesday.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Seasonal Items, Winter Weather

In yesterday’s blog I mentioned the race to discover what life might exist in Antarctic lakes trapped for millions of years under miles of ice. For those wanting a few more details, lo and behold, here is a good article today in Newscientist about the 2 expeditions I mentioned yesterday plus a third. I have been following this story for years and it is exciting to see that later this year we will finally find out if life can exist in these environments.

Finding out whether life does exist or ever existed on the planet Mars is a bit tougher, but this is a story I have been following as well. The 2 Mars rovers Opportunity and Spirit provided some tantalizing clues but nothing definitive. Amazingly, the Opportunity rover is still plugging away and NASA has released a new video of it’s journey over the last three years. Another rover will be headed to Mars on – the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL – nicknamed Curiosity). Disappointingly, it is not constructed to look for direct evidence of life, only to analyze the chemistry of Mars in greater detail to further bolster the case that the red planet could have supported life. It has suffered cost over-runs but I seriously doubt it would get the budget axe at such a late stage. The best part about the MSL is that it will have high definition imaging capability.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Arctic climate, Space

The last 10 days have been extraordinarily pleasant in our region as you know.  High temperatures have been 15 to 20 degrees above normal.   Through October 10th, we’ve had 8 days in a row with highs above 70 degrees in the Wausau area.  So just how unusual is this?

Well, if you just look at last October you might conclude that it happens every year.  In October 2010, we had a stretch very similar to this, early in the month, where we reached 70 degrees or better on 7 consecutive days.  Now there is a shot that the current stretch we are in could extend 2 more days, making it 10 days in a row.  We are forecasting highs close to 70 through Wednesday.  I can assure you though, that these long exceptionally warm spells are very unusual for October in Wisconsin.

Look at the data below.  Since 1996, most Octobers only have streaks of 1 to 5 consecutive days of such warm weather.

OCTOBER HOT STREAKS (# of consecutive days with 70+ degrees)

•  2011     8+?
•  2010    7
•  2009    0
• 2008     3
• 2007     5
• 2006     3
• 2005     5
• 2004     1
• 2003     5
• 2002     1
• 2001      2
• 2000     2
• 1999      1
• 1998      1
• 1997     4
• 1996     2

Again, last year had the closest stretch to what we have achieved this October.  It’s interesting to note that we had a moderate to strong La Nina developing last fall and La Nina is developing again this fall.  It’s possible that this has been a contributor to these summer encores.

Posted under Fall, Heat, Weather NEws

While many scientists and space enthusiasts (such as myself) dream of discovering life on other planets (and for good reason), I also have been following a different endeavor right here on this planet that could discover strange new life forms within the next year. Yes, it involves water and going deep, but it is not what you would guess. It is the attempt to “break into” the under-ice worlds of Antarctica.

Go for a past blog entry about this topic and the controversy. The biggest lake underneath the Antarctic ice is Lake Vostok and it has probably been sealed off from the rest of the world for at least 15 million years. That is plenty of time for life to evolve differently than it has here on the surface. The controversy about Vostok is over how the Russia science team stationed there has been drilling through the ice in order to investigate what lies beneath. They have been using older drilling technology that requires kerosene and freon. The hole they have drilled contains 60 tons of these chemicals and many international scientists are worried that once they crack through into the liquid part of the lake they will contaminate or kill any life that might exist down there. The Russian team claims to have a procedure in place so that the contamination does not occur and theorize that the pressure in the lake will push the chemicals back upward toward the surface. Not everyone is convinced, but we will find out soon. The Russian team only has a few meters left to go and will likely breach the lake later this year when it is Summer in Antarctica.

There are many other sub glacial lakes beneath the Antarctic ice sheet and at least one other will be subject to an attempt to investigate life below. A UK research team will set up some supplies and equipment near Lake Ellsworth this year, and in October of 2012, use more advanced hot water drilling technology to send a robotic probe into the lake. They hope to take a core sample of lake sediment as well.

Kurt Russel in "the Thing" - 1982

It will be interesting to see what they come up with. Some scientists are not only worried about contaminating what lies beneath but also about contaminating the surface. Some of the more extreme speculation involves the spread of some new disease. The odds of this are very remote. Most likely it will be very boring. Some bacteria or plankton might be discovered. I don’t think we have to worry about anything like in the Thing - an above average thriller movie (if you like scary movies) about an alien life form living in Antarctica.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Arctic climate, Nature

Record heat this weekend.

At least six high temperature records were tied or broken this weekend in Central Wisconsin. 

But of the activity for the record books, what happened in Antigo on Sunday was most impressive.  The city hit 79 degrees in the afternoon breaking the old record of 78 but just one degree.  But that record had stood since 1905, that’s 106 years! 

Antigo’s record-breaking afternoon was one of two records to fall during the afternoon.  Rhinelander hit 80 degrees topping the previous record of 76 degrees set back in 1966. 

On Saturday, Wausau tied its record high temperature of 80 degrees.  What it broke wasn’t very old though, the previous record was set just one year ago on October 8th, 2010.  The next day Wausau again tied its record high temperature hitting 79 degrees–the same reading from October 9, 1905.  

South of the city, both Marshfield and Stevens Point made their way into the record books.  Marshfield broke it’s record high temperature by one degree hitting 79 this afternoon.  That broke the record from 1966.  Stevens Point’s 81 degree high tied the same reading that occurred on October 9, 1905!

WOW! What a weekend! 

To learn more, check out this report from the National Weather Service.

Posted under Heat, Nature, Records, Science, Seasonal Items, Weather History, Weather NEws

Keep an eye out for meteors this weekend! Meteor image courtesy NASA

Keep an eye to the sky this weekend!  The Draconid meteor shower is going on up above! 

Though astronomers are saying those of us in North America won’t have the best view, we may still see a few go by.  If you have friends or family in Europe, North Africa or the Middle East, give them a ring–they’ll be better situated to get nicer view!

For more information check out this interesting article by EarthSky here.

Posted under astronomy, Environment, Nature, Science

Be on high alert for wildfire potential this weekend!  Watch those cigarettes and campfires—a complete update on the Pagami Wildfire in Minnesota and precautions you should be taking if you’re headed to the northwest this weekend is included in this link from the National Weather Service here. 

Read more in a previous Storm Track 9 Blog post here.

Posted under Uncategorized

I have got a couple of updates and follow ups for you today. It is that time of the week for the Drought Monitor update and that time of the month for the all important ENSO diagnostic discussion.

First the least interesting update for our area - the Drought Monitor. The conditions have improved since last week but not all that much. Plus, the growing season is over, and we just had a lot of rain at the end of September so we are not in too bad of shape. The worst drought conditions continue in the southern part of the country. Luckily, there has been some rain in New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma during the past week but not enough to dent the drought classification much. Here in Wisconsin about 65% of the state was drought free last week and now that number is closer to 70%.

The more interesting update is the ENSO diagnostic discussion. La Nina strengthened a little in the past month but is still classified as weak. CPC forecasters still expect La Nina to continue into the Winter months but are not certain how strong it will get. The majority of the computer models and the computer model average indicate La Nina weakening and disappearing during the Winter. However, the 2 NCEP models that have been “on the mark” over the last couple of months are forecast a moderate La Nina to develop. The CPC forecasters are leaning toward the stronger La Nina scenario, but they made sure to say that while La Nina can sometimes bring specific effects to different parts of the country, there is no guarantee these will happen.

ENSO Computer Forecasts

What are the “effects” we would notice from a moderate La Nina here in Wisconsin? During each of the last three La Nina Winters (or periods centered around winter-time) here in Wisconsin, we have experienced below normal temps and above normal snowfall. That is why I am leaning in that direction for our Winter forecast. I am officially forecasting temps a little below normal and snow (through the entire cold season including late Fall and Spring) to be above normal.

____________________________

I don’t do regular space news updates anymore but here is an interesting follow up to a story I mentioned a couple of times this year. The simulated Mars mission taking place in Russia is nearing its end and apparently the astronauts are getting exhausted or perhaps anxious. I can imagine the mental torture is worse because they “know” that they are not flying out in space. I wonder if the “mission is essentially done, why don’t we end it early” thought keeps popping into their head. If they were really out in space, they couldn’t entertain that thought and would have to stay focused. It will be interesting to hear how they feel once the project is finally done.

Another follow up is on invisibility cloaks. Many scientists and engineers are working on making this a reality, not just a Star Trek fantasy. The most recent example is one using the classic “mirage” effect to hide a thin film in water. Check out the cool video of the cloaking device here.

Also, for all of those in the snowfall contest, it doesn’t look like much chance of snow for the next 5 or 6 days, so if you guessed early in October, you are probably out of luck. More update next week.

Have a fun weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Space, Technology

The economic tension of our time is between the acceleration of technological progress and the exponential growth of the debt-based monetary system. The former typically holds the promise of a better future while the latter is the harbinger of societal collapse. As I have mentioned many times in the past, depending on where you look and the news of the day, you could argue dystopia or utopia in equal parts.

The sovereign debt created by nations of the world seems like an insurmountable road block to a more prosperous future, that is unless there is a fundamental societal change OR technology can help us out. Economic prosperity could return rather quickly with the development of a radically cleaner and cheaper energy source, or with significant efficiency gains in the modern economy. Not only would this help solve economic problems, we would also have a cleaner environment as a bonus.

While the past week did not herald huge breakthroughs in alternative energy and effciency there was plenty of news to trumpet.

1. Sun Catalytix continues to improve their “artificial leaf”. This technology produces hydrogen and oxygen from sunlight and water. Just put the “leaf” in water, set it in the sun, and hydrogen and oxygen begin to bubble off of the surface. While the dream of hydrogen fuel cell based transportation remains a dream, this technology could find a home in many other fuel cell applications.

2. Electric cars are gaining more traction in the transportation market and are now being helped along by the world’s first ride electric car sharing service in Paris. The “Autolib” program figures to scale up to 250 cars before the end of the year. It makes sense to use electric cars in the city where people do not need to drive as far. It should also help keep the city air less polluted.

3. Electric vehicles would certainly be helped out by better batteries and this is a hot area of research. Just this past week two news releases arrived courtesy of Stanford University research. Both items relate to lithium ion batteries and ways to make them hold more charge. They have used sulfur coated nanotubes and manganese oxide to increase the battery’s power storage capabilities. These are types of breakthrough you can thank a couple years down the road when your cell phone battery lasts a couple days and EVs easily get 300 miles per charge.

4. Here is a potential game-changing technology – super capacitors that hold significantly more charge. Super-capacitors are like batteries in that they store electrical energy. Batteries store energy in dense chemical forms while super-capacitors hold free electrons. Batteries have traditionally been far superior for storing large amounts of electrical power, but engineers and designers would often times rather use super capacitors because you can charge them up and discharge them in a blink of an eye. They theoretically have a much longer life cycle as well. Now researchers have at the National University of Singapore have developed a cheap flexible polymer for super-capacitors that might be able to help them compete with batteries. So far, the new material has a theoretical storage capacity 200 times greater than current capacitors and stores energy 8 times cheaper than current batteries. Seems too good to be true. It probably is. This invention still needs to make it out of the lab and be tested vigorously in real world situations. Can it be manufactured cheaply? We will see. One thing for sure, I think it has a much better chance of making it to the market than anything that might come out of Eestor.

6. Progress is not only coming from “high-tech” research but from older technology as well. Vehicle manufacturers are once again testing out fly wheels and compressed air to make “hybrids”. Instead of using batteries, they use flywheels and compressed air to assist the internal combustion engine. Fuel economy could be increased by a significant percentage using these “old” technologies.

7. Not only are cars undergoing transformation but airplanes as well. NASA just awarded a Slovinian engineering team 1.35 million dollars for winning the CAFE Green Flight Challenge. Their 4 seat airplane flew 200 miles at 100 mph and only used the energy equivalent of a half gallon of gas. Wow! E-planes are a long way from commercial reality but this is a great first step. Some people hope that E-planes will be able to service large metropolitan areas with many micro-airports within the city limits. This could become a reality because E-planes produce hardly any pollution and are much quieter.

8. From the very large to the very small. A Purdue University research team has recently produced a new type of computer memory device that is theoretically 99% more energy efficient that flash memory. Given that more and more of the world relies on computers, mobile devices, the Internet, and large data centers, a development like this could be world changing for the energy landscape of the future.

Have a fun Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

I like to keep a mental yardstick of how the sun looks at different times of the year and what that usually means for how it feels outside.  Of course here in early October, the sun’s maximum angle off the horizon at midday is just under 45 degrees, about the same that it is in early March.  We have less than 12 hours of daylight per day at these times.  Yet the weather is usually drastically different in early October compared to early March.  It’s a rare thing to get above 50 or 60 degrees in early March, and it’s usually about 40-45 degrees.   Yet in early October the old thermometer on a sunny day with a mild air mass around can easily produce 70 degrees with 80 not too much of a stretch with a sustained south or southwest flow for a few days.  Normally we hover around 60 at least in early October.

This contrast tells us that you can’t just rely on the angle of the sun off the horizon to predict temperature.  Remember in early March the ground is normally snow covered and frozen in Wisconsin.  A white landscape doesn’t absorb very much of the incoming solar radiation.  Rather it reflects a good portion of it back into space.  Even in those cases where the ground is bare in March, the soil temperature is probably in the upper 20s to upper 30s and is either frozen or really waterlogged.  Thus much of the sun’s energy goes into trying to warm the ground or evaporate moisture and not so much the air.

In addition frozen lakes or cold water on the Great Lakes in early March has some bearing on temperatures as well.  There might be days where it could get fairly warm but then winds coming in off the cold Great Lakes for example can keep it 10 or 15 degrees lower than you would expect.

Finally we have to factor in the ”lag time” of how the atmosphere works when dealing with temperature.   There are larqe pools of warm air from late summer drifting across the northern hemisphere in early October.   The oceans are quite warm yet too.  Our temperatures benefit from these heat sources as weather systems drag that warm air our way.   The reverse is true in early spring.  There is a lot of residual cold air from winter swirling across the northern hemisphere in early March yet.  The oceans are still cool too.  Fronts easily push the cold air into Wisconsin.

Well enjoy the summerlike temperatures we have now, because based on how low the sun is getting in the sky, we know they won’t be here too much longer!

Posted under Fall, Science, Seasonal Items