It always makes me feel good, or smart, or in-the-know when I blog about a topic that is later covered by a bigger or more influential media outlet. This happens to be the case today because just yesterday I was mentioning how a change in attitude and technology could help us relieve the pollution, congestion, and stress of the Concrete Life (urban living in modern America). Today I found this well-written article about the same topic - approaching the problem from an information-technology angle. The idea is that it should be much easier to hook people up with the transportation they need, whether long distance commuting or short distance trips, because of our information infrastructure. I especially like the author’s comment about new technology in cars. He mentions how Ford is developing a seat that can detect if the driver is having a heart attack and then goes on to say it would be much better if there were more bike lanes because then people’s hearts would be stronger/healthier to begin with. This brings up another concern in regards to the Concrete Life. Generally speaking, the more time we spend in our car commuting, the less time we are out exercising or generally being more productive.

Speaking of more productivity, our phones are a great example and  have the capability of tracking our location which could be used to help sync up different modes of transportation to our needs. As I mentioned yesterday, people are already sharing cars. There are also bike renting/sharing outfits. If these can be coordinated with large mass transit like buses and trains, it should make the whole country more efficient and make the roads a lot less crowded. Use of information-assisted commuting has potential to help turn the tide.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Pollution, Technology

Perhaps you remember back to this time in 2011 when Milwaukee, Chicago and a long strip from Oklahoma to Lower Michigan were paralyzed by a  massive blizzard.  From late on January 31st to early on February 2nd, roughly 18 to 24 inches of snow buried the southeast tip of Wisconsin into northeast Illinois.  Winds gusting to 5o or 60 mph whipped the snow into huge drifts over 8 feet deep in spots.  Many cars were stranded even in downtown Chicago.  Chicago had it’s highest 24-hour snowfall in this storm, with 20″.  Their storm total was over 21 at O’Hare.  Massive waves were generated on Lake Michigan as well.

This storm largely missed central and northern Wisconsin with just an inch or so about as far north as Stevens Point.  There is an excellent writeup with many stunning pictures and graphs from the Chicago National Weather Service Office.  You can check it out here,   http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=2011blizzard

A little bit later that week, Dallas-Fort Worth, TX was hit with ice, a bit of snow, and unseasonably cold conditions.  You may recall it made a snarled mess of air and land travel into that area prior to the Super Bowl.  I’m sure when they booked the Super Bowl there years in advance, they weren’t expecting something like that.

We don’t expect any major problems in Indianapolis this year leading up to the Super Bowl.  However there could be some light rain there Tuesday afternoon or evening.  Temperatures will be unseasonably warm actually, in the 50s and 40s much of the week.  It’s possible some more rain may sneak into that region for the weekend, but it is still uncertain.

Posted under Uncategorized

When I wrote the Concrete Life (Part 2 and Part 3) a couple years ago, I was rather pessimistic that anything would change anytime soon in the U.S. – that the huge sprawling urban centers would only continue to grow. It can be enjoyable traveling to a large city to enjoy the diversity and entertainment that they offer, but after a couple days of driving around on crowded freeways and seeing miles and miles and miles of box stores, parking lots, and strip malls, I usually end up being a bit more depressed. I end up wondering where are the clean futuristic cities that were portrayed in the science fiction of years ago. It would seem we are trapped with overbuilt and aging infrastructure with the only thing that could transform society and the economy is a catastrophe (let’s hope not!).

One method of changing the polluted concrete American jungle into something more desirable would be through changing our priorities. As I mentioned in “Housing Starts Are Negative“, if we place more emphasis on other metrics of progress, like economic efficiency, health, happiness, etc. then maybe there will be less focus on building more stuff (just for the economy’s sake). When we stop looking upon the building of a new freeway interchange as a sign of progress and instead a sign of more traffic jams and pollution, then we will be getting somewhere.

The other method of changing some aspects of the concrete life is through technology. The pollution created on all the freeways around the country could be cut down with the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). The effect would be even better if people powered them up using solar panels – which some early-adopters are already doing. Helping spur this transition toward EVs is a company I have profiled a couple of times here in the blog – Project Better Place. They just recently launched a fleet of 100 EVs for the roads in Israel. The cars have a range of 100 miles and can have their batteries switched at one of several different “battery stations” in the country. Next year, they expect the top selling cars in Israel and Denmark to be electric. Of course, it is one thing to drive EVs and make a big impact in tiny countries like Denmark and Israel, it is another thing to do it in the U.S. Hopefully they can make money overseas in order to expand more here in the U.S. Currently, I think they only have one battery changing station in the San Francisco Bay area (and one in Tokyo).

RelayRides for car sharing

Another way that traffic and pollution might come down is through car sharing. At first this sounded rather foreign to me because like most Americans I treat my car like an extension of my home. It is almost a like fundamental right of being American –  to have your own car. After I thought about it a bit more, it started to make sense, and it is definitely making more and more sense for young people in Urban environments around the U.S and in Europe. Car sharing is increasing. I could probably get by on car sharing. My wife and I live within walking or biking distance to work. We would only need to rent/share a car one a week for groceries/shopping, and about once a month to visit family or relatives outside of Wausau.

Not only does car sharing cut down on traffic, it saves people who don’t drive a lot a ton of money. Owning a car is a huge money sink. The upfront cost is of course one of the bigger expenditures people make in their life (other than a house). Then there are the ongoing costs which pile up significantly – most of them mandated by government.

• Fuel costs, including ever increasing gas taxes.
• Parking cost, exorbitant in big cities
• Insurance, mandated in most states
• Toll roads in many areas of the country
• Car tax – the yearly registration – always going up.
• Regular maintenance
• Annual vehicle inspections/smog inspections in many states
• Fines for not maintaining you vehicle
• The list goes on and on.

When I think about how little time I spend in my car (especially in the Summer when I ride to work), it is amazing how much money I pour into it. We certainly value our freedom to roam.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Pollution, Technology

During the course of analyzing the future of air pollution, technology, and alternative energy I often highlight some of the companies that are creating the future. Some are hits and some are misses. Successful or not, I like to follow-up on the latest developments. One trend as of late is that the biggest “misses” are the government supported start-up companies. Most people are aware of the Solyndra scandal and the half billion tax-payer loan that went down the drain, now Ener1 has also filed for bankruptcy (after receiving a 118 million dollar “stimulus” grant). Ener1 was in the business of making batteries for electric cars. I mentioned this company in the weather blog back in 2008. At the time company leaders were hoping to cut the cost of lithium-ion batteries in half. The cost of lithium-ion batteries has come down quite a bit in the last 4 years but apparently it did not help out Ener1. All is not lost though, a Russian billionaire is investing some money in the bankrupt company to see if it can be revived. Here is a more in depth financial look at Ener1 and other U.S based battery companies, some political analysis from Reason, and a more sarcastic take on government support of business in general. I understand the stated reasons and justifications behind using tax-payer money to speculate in new industries, but nothing can replace the free market’s pressure to produce winners. Government grants are “free” money for those who receive them. When a business is started with private capital in the free market, there is more pressure to succeed. If you don’t succeed, you lose “your” money, your friend’s money, or your investor’s money.  That is a big deal. People and companies with their own money on the line typically work smarter and harder to succeed.

MIT-designed CityCar

From a miss (Ener1) to a potential hit on another future trend – electric vehicles. So many future designs and EV dreams have passed before my eyes and the pages of this blog  in the past few years that you might be swayed into believing that everyone is driving one by now. While that is not the case, some cars have made it onto the market including one that I didn’t think would succeed, or at least not make it from concept to commercial product. It is the MIT-designed “CityCar” (not to be confused with the T.27 city car). A commercial version was recently unveiled in Europe. Now we will see if there is a market for this tiny electric car that “folds up” to fit into tight parking spaces. Basically, if you like the Smart Car and think it is cute, then you will probably love the CityCar. I would buy one and drive it around town (keeping a gas car for longer drives on the freeway). The only barrier will likely be price. A couple years ago I was amazed at how expensive the Smart Four 2 was for being so small and only getting 40 mpg. Most electrics are rather pricey and this story announcing its availability does not give a price.

And since we are on the topic of businesses and products succeeding or failing, I might as well mention the iconic American company Kodak. They recently filed for bankruptcy. After reorganization they are planning to dip their toes into thin film solar panel production. Some people think that their old photographic film business could be transformed into solar panel production. I suppose it is a possibility but the solar market is already ultra-competitive. There has been a lot of commentary about Kodak’s demise because it used to be a giant among U.S. companies. A lot of people blame the management for not seeing the future of digital photography, but that wasn’t the main problem. In fact, Kodak invented digital photography and manufactured good digital cameras. The main problem was that the film business was so much larger and more profitable. Even if Kodak aggressively pursued digital photography and digital cameras and completely dominated the market, they still would have had to shed most of their workforce and their stock price would still be a tiny fraction of what it was during the 1970s and 1980s. The digital picture business is vary low margin compared to film. There just was not a lot of money to be made there – not enough to support a company the size of Kodak.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

As you probably know, the winter so far has been quite a bit warmer than normal.  It stands to reason then that there would be less ice cover on the Great Lakes than usual for this time of the year.  According to the map below from NOAA, it appears that about 90% of the surface of the Great Lakes are still ice free.  Some of the shallower portions and edges of the lakes are froze over.  For example the Bay of Green Bay is pretty much covered along with areas near the coast around Ashland and Bayfield.  A small area northwest of Isle Royale in Lake Superior is ice covered.  So are a few pockets in southwest Lake Michigan and near the Mackinac Bridge.  The portion of Lake Huron that is most covered with ice is the little finger that juts out north of Saginaw.    Lake Erie has some ice cover on its western flank.

There are a few interesting implications from the lack of ice cover on the Great Lakes.  One is that if  some cold arctic air  actually comes across the open waters there should be high amounts of lake effect snow.  The long fetches of relatively warm, moist air over the lake rising up into cold arctic air masses are the perfect set up to produce lake effect clouds and snow.   It’s probable large parts of the lakes may stay open right into spring, so I see no reason why the lake effect snow would shut off in February, like some years.  Secondly, winds off the lakes will tend to keep temperatures a bit milder in the Great Lakes States than they would be if they were completely iced over.  

Posted under Uncategorized

Time for a little space news update on one of the events I started reporting on 8 years ago – the Opportunity Rover. It is has just completed it’s eighth year on Mars and it is still going strong. It has developed a few small problems such as reduced fluid motion in it’s robotic arm and wheels, but as of now it seems to have a good chance of logging a lot more time on Mars. Right now it is parked at an angle for the Martian Winter season in order to conserve energy and gather more light from the sun. If it lasts through the next Martian Summer then it might break a distance record for a remotely operated unmanned device/robot on a celestial object (not earth). The old record is 23 miles set by a Soviet Lunar rover back in the 1970s. So far Opportunity has traveled 21.35 miles.

A Recent Image From Opportunity

The thought of having a robot on another planet for 8 years running, would have been heresy just a decade or two ago. This accomplishment in space exploration is truly amazing, but what might be more amazing is that it has generally passed by the public’s consciousness. Why? I tend to think that older generations were more enamored with space exploration because of the Apollo program and science fiction like Star Trek. Younger generations saw the space shuttle as the “biggest thing” in space and it wasn’t all that exciting. Technological advancements here on the planet earth in the form of computers, social networking, and gaming, have taken a lot of attention away. I am willing to bet that only one out of a hundred people know there is a robot on Mars named Opportunity and perhaps 1 in 1,000 know it is still running. I doubt there will be too much interest in coming years even after the MSL lands. The only thing that might up the interest is the discovery of life or signs of life on the Red Planet. For interest in space exploration as a whole, I think it will be up to private space tourism companies to succeed and generate more interest, otherwise the virtual worlds of the Internet and gaming will probably continue to dominate the thoughts and dreams of younger generations.

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Here is another follow-up on a topic I touched upon last week just because it was somewhat humorous. If you remember, a fellow wrote an opinion article serving as a rallying cry to ban the “Check Engine” light in cars. I shared my story about the “Check Engine” light in one of my cars, but there didn’t seem to be any other interesting stories from readers. Please feel free to share your thoughts or stories. In any case, here is an article about the most common things that cause the check engine light to illuminate and what you can do about these “problems”.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Space

We always try to take a longer look into the future with our discussions here in the blog, often citing other sources of extended forecasts, by following the atmospheric and ocean patterns (like La Nina and El Nino), and by examining long-range computer models. Once every month we take a tour of the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) long range computer outlooks. Every month the computer models are run and they crank out temperature and precipitation trends for the next 12 months into the future. NCEP (of which the CPC is part of) also runs daily forecast that stretch any where from an hour up to 16 days.

CPC February Temp Forecast

If you are a snow-lover hoping for a continuation of our recent more frequent snowfall, there isn’t a lot of hope in the latest CPC outlook. In the short term, there doesn’t appear to be much hope for significant snow through next Wednesday. In the longer term (out to two weeks) your best hope would be for a significant snowstorm to move through during the early part of February. Otherwise the CPC outlooks for the month of February indicates a greater chance of above normal temperatures than below normal temps. It also shows a greater chance of above normal precipitation for far eastern Wisconsin, but the greater chances of heavier precipitation are well off to the east of the state in Indiana and Ohio. 

CPC February Precip Trend

For snowmobilers, it will be key to have some snow in early February if we want to get most of the trails open and in good condition before Spring. Once we get into late February and early March, it is tougher to keep a good base around, even when we have a heavy snowstorm. The sun is much warmer late in the Winter and melts the snow a little faster. I can only remember one Winter in the past two decades when trails – which had been closed all Winter – were opened in early March after a big snowfall.

Perhaps that is the way it will go this Winter – big snow in the Spring.

March-April-May CPC Precip Forecast

I am not sure I would be too happy with another Spring filled with late snowstorms (like last year) but the CPC outlook for the March-April-May period indicates a greater chance of above normal precipitation during this time period. In one respect it would be good because if we do not receive a lot of snow during the Winter, then we could use a little more rain in the Spring to catch up and have a good start to the growing season.

For the rest of the CPC outlook, through the Summer there are no big indications toward either hot/cold or wet/dry trends. The next trend that shows up for our area is above normal temps in the Fall.

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Now a follow-up on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). I have been monitoring the progress of the telescope because it promises to deliver better images and data than even the Hubble telescope. Unfortunately, it has hit cost over-runs and was on the chopping block for a while. The latest NASA budget does include money for the JWST, but some observers still think the project might be cancelled. The projected cost of the telescope has now risen to 8.8 billion. With a price tag like that, I can see why politicians might want to cancel it. It would be a shame if it was cancelled, because it would bring some great new discoveries to astronomy, but when you are talking about billions of dollars in today’s era of insolvent government’s, projects such as these get left behind. It would be a shame of JWST was cancelled because it is already half built. It would be similar to the super-collider that was half built in Texas before being cancelled. What a waste of money! Of course, 8.8 billion dollars seems a little unreasonable as well. I know it is a very large and complicated telescope but 8.8 billion dollars!? Where does all the money go? Are they paying the engineers $200 an hour or something? Are they paying $10,000 per screw?

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In another follow-up of a developing story I have been following, a U.S. led investigation has found that some Chinese solar power manufacturers are selling solar panels below cost. Given that this finding was released by one side in a developing trade war, I would be cautious of the claim. As I have mentioned before, with the growth of international trade and government involvement in alternative energy across the globe, pinning blame on one country and thier subsidies would seem to be a fool’s errand, like shooting yourself in the foot. Maye there is some very egregious unfair support that the Chinese provide  their solar companies, but we shouldn’t forget that subsidies exist for different industries in every country of the world.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, CPC Outlook, Space

You’ve probably heard about the devastating tornadoes that ripped through the Deep South late Sunday night.  The preliminary count from Storm Prediction Center is around 22 twisters.  

  Some were fairly strong with winds estimated up to 150 mph.  The cause was a sharp trough of low pressure moving east from the Plains.  Warm and humid air was surging north from the Gulf of Mexico to collide with the colder air in place farther north.  As you’ll see in the map below from the Storm Prediction Center from Sunday evening, dew points had climbed to the 60s around part of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama along a warm front where most of the twisters occurred. 

 Very strong atmospheric winds were moving in from the west.   The winds were turning in direction with height, which is another important factor for forming violent tornadoes.  We can only hope we d0n’t have as active of a spring as last year for severe weather.  Numerous major low pressure systems marched from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and set up a frequent battleground in that area in late winter and spring 2011.

STRONG SOLAR STORM IMPACTING EARTH

On a different note, a strong solar flare erupted from the sun Sunday evening with possible impacts to aircraft communications near the Earth’s poles.   Besides the flare, a Coronal Mass Ejection accompanied this event.  A geomagnetic storm is expected to develop around 8 a.m. CST Tuesday, continuing into Wednesday.  It could be a moderate intensity (G2).

From NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory showing the solar flare that erupted Sunday evening

This may affect power grids, where voltage corrections may be required along with false alarms set off on some protective devices.  A few spotty satellite navigation and low-frequency rado navigation problems may also develop.

Finally, high latitude locations could be fortunate enough to have some decent auroras.  Let’s hope our skies are fairly clear around here.

Posted under astronomy, Severe Weather, Space, Storms, Tornadoes, Weather NEws

On January 19th, the last ship crossed through the Soo Locks to end the 2011 shipping season as ice is building on the Great Lakes.

Below you can find a nice article written by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District, regarding the Soo Locks.  It’s quite an operation.  Hope you enjoy.  You can also see a bunch of cool ship and lock pictures from their flicker site.  http://www.flickr.com/photos/detroit_district/

DETROIT – The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District announces the seasonal closing of the Soo Locks in Sault Ste.Marie,Mich. The Corps operates and maintains the locks as part of theGreat Lakes navigation system and will use this time to perform critical maintenance on the lock structures.

The season’s final vessel, the Saginaw, a 639-foot long self-unloading bulk carrier, cleared the Poe Lock just at midnight January 19.

During the 2011 navigation season, 4,040 cargo vessels passed through the Soo Locks carrying almost 75 million tons of iron ore, coal, grain and other commodities.  In addition to cargo vessels, a total of 3,175 tour boats, private boats and other ‘recreational’ vessels used the locks this past year.

“The Locks are the linchpin of theGreat Lakesnavigation system, facilitating the transport of important commodities,” said Lt. Col. Michael Derosier, district engineer. “We are proud of our responsibilities to operate and maintain the locks.”

While closed to navigation for the next two months, crews will be busy with a variety of maintenance projects on both the Poe and MacArthur Locks in preparation for another busy season.

The Poe stayed open three days past the traditional closing date of the navigation season, at the request of the shipping industry, allowing the movement of over 400,000 tons of additional cargo. The locks are scheduled to re-open March 25.

The Detroit District, maintains a navigation system that includes 95 harbors and the Great Lakes Connecting Channels that join lakes Superior,Michigan, Huron and Erie. For more details, contact Lynn Rose, public affairs officer, 313-226-4680.

Posted under Travel, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

As you know, sometimes snow is wet and heavy and other times it is dry and fluffy.  The scientific term we use to describe this changeable nature of snow is the snow to water ratio.  Essentially this boils down to how many inches of snow will fall for every 1 inch of water.  An average ratio around Wisconsin in the winter is about 10 to 1. 

Well with the snow coming through Friday the snow to water ratio is expected to be about 20 to 1 or even 25 to 1.  That is because the air from the cloud level to the ground will be exceptionally cold for a snow event.  The ice crystals will form and gather in such a way that a lot of extra air will be stacked inside the snowflakes.  This makes them pile up in height quicker once they reach the ground.  It also will make it a very fluffy, powdery light snow.  So under this scenario, if we get about an inch of snow in Wausau Friday, it would only have about .05″ of water in it!  Even the areas of southern Wisconsin that are expecting around 5″ of snow Friday, would only be picking up about .25″ of actual moisture.  This is great news in terms of shoveling.  It will be very easy to move and not put nearly the strain on your back.  It is also a wonderful type of snow for skiing and sledding on.  It won’t even make your pants too wet if you roll around it for awhile.

On those occasions when the air is quite humid and warm, perhaps in the lower to mid 30s and the storm is tapping deep moisture levels, our snow ratios can be as low as 7 to 1.  That is if seven inches of snow falls it would have a whopping 1″ of water in it.  This is the sloppy, heavy mash potato type of snow that is very difficult to shovel.  On the plus side it packs really well and make great snowmen and snowball fights!  It is also the type of snow that works good as a base for snowmobile trails.  This is because it doesn’t squish down to nothing when sleds r0ll over it, unlike the dry powdery snow.

Well, hope you enjoy all the types of snow the rest of the winter.  See if you can notice all the nuisances in flakes, textures, and weights.

Posted under Uncategorized