There have already been well above normal tornadoes for this point in the year across the country.  You’ve probably heard about the violent outbreak Tuesday night in parts of Kansas and Misssouri. 

Actually the severe storm swath covered parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, and Kentucky.   The preliminary tally indicates 21 tornadoes, 165 reports of winds over 58 mph, and 37 large hail reports.  The map below from Storm Prediction Center shows the coverage.

Go to this link from the National Weather Service in Wichita, KS to find out what weather conditions came together to produce the outbreak.  Plus you can see many amazing photos of the tornadoes and damage.  By the way, it was part of the same system which br0ught the heavy snow, sleet, rain, and wind to Wisconsin.  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ict&storyid=79763&source=0

Posted under Spring, Storms, Tornadoes

The biggest storm of the Winter season is not over yet but it is not too early to do a preliminary post-mortem on the storm and forecast. As expected the two big wild cards in the forecast were the line between rain and snow (where would it be?) and whether or not there would be thundersnow. As you recall in the blog posts over the last couple of days, I mentioned that thundersnow could really crank up some of the snow totals. Well, we did end up with some thunderstorms producing snow this morning from around Wausau and on up into the Northwoods, and this produced some hefty snow amounts.

Overall, I am happy that most of the forecast on timing and amounts ended up fairly close. Here in Wausau the mid morning total on snowfall was 6.1 inches. On Monday I forecast 8-12 for Wausau and yesterday I had dropped it down to 3 to 6 inches, so it ended up in between. In the southern half of the area there was a quick couple inches last night and then the rest of the morning it was all sleet and rain as expected. The biggest official miss was snow amounts in the northwoods. On Monday I was forecasting up to 15 inches, yesterday I had lowered into the 6 to 10 range, and it ended up in the 15 to 18 inch range, with a few unconfirmed reports of over 20 inches. I knew the thundersnow was a possibility, but was not confident enough in the analysis to forecast the enormous amounts of snow. Tony had mentioned a bit more for the north – 15 inches or more – last night so he gets a better grade.

Another inch or two of snow could pile up in a couple areas yet this afternoon so the graphic you see here will probably need some updating. The Warnings and Advisories for the area officially continue through 6pm today but the roads should improve this afternoon, especially around Wausau and further south, as temps rise into the middle 30s.

3.8 inches of the 6.1 inch total for Wausau fell before midnight last night, so the record snow of 4.5 inches on February 29th (today) might hold. So far today we only officially have 2.3 inches of snow.

A final note. We are still watching the potential for another storm to hit the state on Friday. Some charts indicate it could produce several inches of snow for the southern and eastern parts of the area (around Wausau and points to the south and east), while others indicate not much accumulation. More on this tomorrow.

Have a good leap day! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Snow Totals, Winter Weather

I would like to delve a little more into the science and weather news of the day but the impending Winter storm has taken up most of my time and I suspect it is on everyone’s mind anyway, so today’s blog will once again be about the potential snowfall, and rainfall, and sleet-fall (if that is a word).

So what has changed since yesterday’s analysis? I have dropped the snow totals slightly and shifted the heaviest potential snow a little north of the Wausau metro area. As you can see from the graphic, I am now forecasting 3 to 6 inches of heavy wet snow (mixed with rain and sleet at times) for Marathon county and the highway 29 corridor. The line for the heavier snow (and not as much rain or sleet, is likely to be just north of the Wausau metro area and on up into the Northwoods. For areas south of Marathon county, there is a good chance there will be more rain and sleet than snow. Right now I am looking at 1 to 3 inches of snow in the southern areas late tonight, followed by some heavier rain around daybreak.

Snow Potential

With the rain and milder temps developing in the morning, the roads might not be too bad south of Marathon county.

A couple key things to remember with this storm is that there could be some rather extreme differences in snow totals in the transition zone between rain/sleet and snow – that means Marathon county. As I was mentioning yesterday, in the transition zone there can be a 9 inch snow report just a few miles away from a 1 inch report. There could also be some thundersnow at times that can really enhance the snowfall. Thundersnow can produce snowfall rates of 4 or 5 inches per hour. This is also possible in the transition zone.

The second thing to remember is that the heaviest rain, sleet, and snow will occur quite early in the morning, through about 7 or 8 am for central Wisconsin. For the rest of the day on Wednesday, the weather will likely be mild (a few degrees above freezing) with only a little drizzle and patchy light snow. The only locations that could pick up an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow later in the morning through early afternoon are in the northwoods.

NAM snow forecast

For a comparison to our StormTrack9 snow potential graphic, I have also included one computer model projection of snowfall. This particular computer model (the NAM) calculates a maximum of 19.7 inches of snow in the northwestern corner of the state and generally 10 to 15 inches of snow for the northwoods. It also shows a sharp cut-off of where there will be a lot of snow and where there will be none. It does have a known bias of over-estimating precipitation, but it seems fairly close this time around.

There will be another storm system moving into the upper Midwest on Friday, but at this time it looks like the highest potential for accumulating snow will be confined to the far southeastern part of the area, in cities such as Shawano, Waupaca, and Wautoma.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under forecast, Severe Weather, Winter Weather

By now you are probably aware of the significant amount of wet snow and sleet expected in our region Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Since we are approaching spring and we’ve had some bare ground off and on through the winter, your next question is probably….when will it melt???

Typically it melts fairly fast this time of the year.   Often times warm air sneaks in within a few days of a big snowfall this time of the year.  Plus even without a warm push of air, the sun angle is getting so high it readily melts snow even when the actually air temperatures are below freezing.  According to some weather models we may very well have a fairly strong warm up next week.  In fact the charts below show air aloft a few thousand feet running about +6 degrees C by Monday-Tuesday March 5th-6th as a brisk southwest wind blows in.  If some sunshine accompanied that, high temperatures would likely jump well into the 40s. 

A front and low pressure system are also projected to slide through the middle of the country around Wednesday and Thursday, March 7th-8th.  The GFS model below actually shows a good quarter inch of rain potential.  That would certainly accelerate the melting process.

GFS model rainfall projection for Thursday, March 8th

So the bottom line is, the snow won’t last all that long.  Oh we could very well get more snow off and on through March but the trend on the thermometer is definitely going to be up.  So I project the ground should be mostly bare again by the 10th or 15th of March.  In the meantime, be careful out there Tuesday evening through Wednesday with the mess on the roads.

Posted under forecast, Spring

The big news continues to be the active jet stream pattern and storm potential for our area. I mentioned last week how we should not get too much Spring Fever yet, because Winter is not over and that there were several potential storms on the horizon. We got hit with a couple inches of snow on Monday of last week, then the second and third storm in this pattern missed. One headed into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois last Thursday night and produced several inches of snow. The next headed into far northern Wisconsin (near Lake Superior and the UP of Michigan) and produced 2 to 3 inches on Sunday.

The fourth storm in this active weather pattern is what I will focus on today. It will be cruising through the upper Midwest Tuesday evening and Wednesday. The National Weather Service has already issued a WINTER STORM WATCH for the entire Newsline 9 viewing area for this time period. It doesn’t look like this storm will be the most “energetic” or strongest storm we have had in the last couple of years, but it will have a high amount of moisture so the potential for heavy precipitation will still exist.

Snow Potential Tuesday Night & Wednesday

As of now, I am forecasting 8 to 12 inches of snow for areas around Clark, Marathon, and Shawano counties on up to around highway 8. Further north of highway 8, the snow should be a little less. South of Marathon county, it looks like 4 to 8 inches of snow. South of Wisconsin Rapids and Stevens Point, it might only be a trace up to 4 inches. The heaviest snow with this storm system will likely be in parts of central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Over toward the Twin Cities, Eau Claire, and Rice Lake, there might be 15 or more inches of snow.

So what are the question marks that remain? Given that the storm is less than 36 hours away, there is less chance that it will completely change course and miss our area like the last two. There is a chance that more rain and sleet could mix in with the snow and thus keep snow totals more in the 4 to 8 inch range and not much more. There will likely also be a sharp cut-off between areas with little accumulation, in the far south, and a lot of accumulation farther north. In the past with this type of late Winter/early Spring storm I have seen a trace of snow fall in Stevens Point with close to 10 inches in Wausau on the same day. There could be such a sharp cut-off this time around as well. As far as the 8 to 12 inches accumulation, it looks like the lighter amounts (around 8 inches) will be east in the area, such as around Antigo, Wittenberg, and Tigerton, and the heavier amounts (closer to 12 inches) will be farther west in areas such as Medford, Withee, and Thorp. The record snowfall in Wausau on Wednesday is only 4.5 inches so we could end up setting a new record.

The storm will wind down on Wednesday afternoon and we will have a break in the action for Thursday, then another storm could hit on Friday. If it tracks over Wisconsin, we could be dealing with another several inches of rain, sleet, and snow. Be sure to check the blog, our weather page, twitter, and our facebook pages (news and weather) to stay informed about the storminess this week.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under forecast, Winter Weather

Though the bulk of the heavy snow from this weekend’s storm system is tracking north of the major metro areas in Central Wisconsin, other communities are bracing for snow.  And a lot of it!

 Given current forecast projections, the arrowhead region of Minnesota will “take it on the chin” so to speak.  Areas there are expecting 5 to 8” by the end of the weekend with stretches along the western shores of Lake Superior preparing for around 10”.

If you are doing any traveling Sunday or Monday into northern Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin or portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan you could be greeted with some brutal driving conditions. 

Before you hit the road this weekend, check out this website: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dlh&storyid=59787&source=0.  It shows you a map of the major roadways in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky.  The map also overlays current advisories, watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  You’ll also notice that some roads are green, others yellow, and some red.  Linking information provided by each state’s department of transportation that will tell you where travel conditions are good, fair or hazardous. 

The page also includes a mobile link so you can take it on the road. 

Stay safe if you’re traveling this weekend!

Posted under Community, Environment, Seasonal Items, Storms, Travel, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

In a follow up to the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) news I brought to the fore this past week (Heartland documents released and a reversal of opinion) we find at least one opinion on the subject that gets closer to bridging the gap of understanding. This particular piece from Newscientist illuminates the worry about the Heartland Institute promoting alternative theories to AGW and stating that “whether humans are changing the climate is a major scientific controversy”.  The authors seems to have honest intentions by stating “Children should be taught honestly what we know about climate change, as well as what we don’t know and where the uncertainties lie”. The problem is that the politics of AGW has become quite intertwined with the science. From various public statements and publications it seems that there is not a very good effort so far to acknowledge “where the uncertainties lie”.

Every time someone from outside the mainstream AGW climate scientists brings up a potential problem, uncertainty, or alternative theory, they are generally very quickly derided as a “tool of big oil”, “flat-earther”, “old crank”, “environmental terrorist” or many other derogatory terms. I have profiled this trend many times over in the blog.

And as far as bringing the political controversy into the classroom, that has already happened. I have seen some schools in other parts of the country have kids help with environmental protests. Remember also that Al Gore’s documentary (An Inconvenient Truth) was recommended for all schools in order to teach about AGW. Even if the documentary did not have any political hues what-so-ever, there could not have been a worse person to deliver the message to school children, if political controversy was supposed to stay out of the conversation.

In another opinion released from an environmental conference recently, scientists proclaimed “people need to believe in science”. I agree, but I don’t think there has been much loss in “belief”. The resistance to some science (like AGW) is in the politics not the data. One natural outlet for people whose lives and well-being are threatened by AGW regulations and laws is to criticize the science. As far as I have seen, it isn’t that the skeptics are anti-science overall, they are mostly afraid of the policy consequences, or the tyranny of good intentions. “Belief” has little to do with it. A bigger problem for science is poor education in the U.S. which lags behind most modern countries when it comes to teaching the subject. If younger generations do not have a good grasp of science, they will ignore it or be easily manipulated. Schools should start out with the basics of weather, move on to chemistry, math, and physics in advanced years, and then finally look at the climate and how it might change in the future. Starting out with “An Inconvenient Truth” is getting off on the wrong foot.

Volcano Erupting

While on the subject of AGW I might as well highlight that the “AGW will literally tear apart the earth” theme has been resurrected once again. This time the phrase is “geological mayhem”. The theory is that shifting masses of ice and water upon the earth’s surface can help to trigger earthquakes and volcanoes. It follows that AGW could then cause more earthquakes and volcanoes as more ice melts. The theory is essentially true, but I think some AGW theorists are blowing the potential for disaster out of proportion. The change in mass of surface ice and water from the last ice age up until 1900 was orders of magnitude larger than the change that will occur from now through 2100. Thus, I would not expect as much increase in earthquakes or volcanoes as what occurred periodically when the last ice age thawed. According to this article, the ocean level only rose 0.06 inches from 2003 to 2010 and it actually went down last year. Oddly, not much of the ice melting around the world has occurred in the Himalayas.

Picture of cloud tops from space

If you have been perusing some science and weather news recently you might have come across this article. Apparently, the height of cloud tops has been lowering over the past decade. Since this trend has only been studied for the past 10 years, and the cloud tops have only lowered by 1%, it might not be a significant issue. For all we know, the clouds top height could fluctuate a few percent over decades or centuries. If it is a statistically significant trend then it could be something that counteracts some of the possible warming that is being caused by humans. It is also interesting in the fact that one would expect the cloud tops to be rising in a warmer world. More moisture in a warmer atmosphere should lead to more clouds and higher clouds tops. It seems just the opposite is happening.

In another AGW related story, it has been calculated that raindrops take a significant percentage of (kinetic) energy out of the air. This is not something new, it is just that the amount of energy removed from the air by raindrops has not been calculated before. This makes me wonder if increased rainfall is the cause of decreasing global wind speeds as of late. In a warmer world there is more moisture in the air, which often leads to more precipitation, and more precipitation will slow down the winds.

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW

According to NOAA, 2011 was the 11th warmest year on record in terms of global average temperature since modern records began around 1880.  The global average temperature was .92 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. 

While that is fairly warm, what really stands out is the fact that 2011 was the warmest La Nina year on record.  We have pretty accurate records of El Nino / La Nina events at least back to around 1950.

So as you can see in the yearly temperature departure from normal graph, there has been an overall uptick in temperature with the El Nino years (in red) showing an extra spike up and the La Nina years (in blue) showing a small drop.  La Nina is characterized by cooler than normal waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean between South America and Indonesia.  This and its opposite cousin, El Nino, help shape steering currents and weather patterns around the world.

Average Annual Global Temperature Departure From Normal

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, ENSO Update, Weather NEws

As more air pollution has developed in Wisconsin over the last few years, I have become more of an advocate of electric cars. (Aside: on average pollution of all forms in the U.S. is much less than the middle of last century). One of the main criticism of electric vehicles (EVs) is that they are just “coal cars” since most of the electricity that fuels them will come from coal-fired power plants. I have argued that even though the electricity might come from a coal-fired power plant, the delivery mechanism and pollution control measures inherent in the operation of EVs are much more efficient than with comparable fossil fuel transportation infrastructure. It is much easier to control pollution from one smoke stack at a power plant than from millions of tiny “smoke stacks” (tail pipes) attached to internal combustion engines. Of course, I haven’t had the time or resources to do an official study.

Pollution Problems in China

The headline from a recent study claiming that EV’s DO NOT reduce pollution had me a little worried. After I read a little more into it, I found that the study was in China and that makes a huge difference. What happens in China is probably not applicable to EV operation in other parts of the world. First of all, they probably do not have as good of pollution control at their power plants. They have “official” regulations of course, but many observers report that these regulations are rarely followed. Judging by the air pollution pictures out of China, I would say they are correct. Also, China gets most of its power from coal. This is not the case in many other countries. The U.S. does have a heavy reliance on coal but the use of natural gas is increasing. Natural gas power plants have much less pollution, so on average, the EV/pollution study would probably turn out much better here.

Then of course there are people who charge their EVs with wind and solar power which causes even less pollution. I would be negligent if I didn’t also mention that EVs require much less maintenance and do not create as much noise pollution. So EVs might not be the perfect solution – right now – but there is certainly promise for the future. I would like to buy one but the price is still too far out of my range.

The Tesla Model X

Price is the hurdle that is keeping Tesla motors on edge in recent months. Is the luxury electric car market big enough to keep them solvent. This recent article looks into the question. Tesla was of course one of the companies that benefited from the boom in clean energy investment that occurred during the first decade of this century. That boom has now went bust and here is a long article about the rise and fall. One thing I noticed is that when the U.S. government got heavily involved after 2008 is when things started falling apart for many companies. It is often said that government money in the form of loans and grants distorts the economics of the situation, creates bad incentives, and drowns out the signals from the free market. It seems it happened with much of the “green” investment as well.

The biggest losers, as I expected are biofuel companies. It is not that they didn’t have unique ideas or wonderful products, it is just that they could not scale up and compete with cheap natural gas, government supported grain ethanol, or the motivation of the solar/EV crowd. Biofuels could still have a place during our transition to cleaner energy future, but it probably is not a good long-term solution.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

The latest long range monthly outlooks have been released by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and if you are hoping for an early Spring you might be in luck. I say might because looking ahead months in advance is still a very in-exact science. The March outlook for Wisconsin indicates a significant chance of above normal temperatures across Wisconsin and most of the Great Lakes region. As a bonus, there is also a greater than normal chance of above normal precipitation. I am always happy if we head into the growing season with some added moisture. It helps everything turn green and start growing vigorously right away.

CPC March Temp Trend

Now just remember, as you are reading this and thinking about a potential mild March, don’t forget that the rest of the month of February is looking rather Winter-like. We have to get through the next couple of weeks before we will see whether or not the CPC forecast is correct. Also remember that above normal precipitation in March could mean either rain or snow. If we end up with a couple of big storms dumping several inches of snow, it might not seem like an early Spring, even if the majority of the days in March are above normal.

CPC March Precip Trend

As far as the longer term goes, the three month average of March-April-May is also predicted to have a chance of above normal temperatures in our part of the country. Otherwise, all other periods in the forecast indicate EQ or “equal chances” of above or below normal temps and precipitation. So basically, after a possibly mild March, the computer models can’t discern any major trends through the Summer.

Now an update on the current Wintry pattern referenced above. Light snow will continue off-and-on for the rest of today and might accumulate an inch or so. On Thursday another storm moving through the upper Midwest has the potential to produce 2 or 3 inches of snow but current charts indicate it might track through southern Wisconsin and not bring a whole lot of snow to Marathon county and further north. The third storm of the week will be developing later Sunday into Monday morning and has the potential to create several inches of snow. It is still too early to say where in the state the heaviest snow will fall.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, forecast