I just crunched the numbers and this March turned out as extraordinary as we thought it might several weeks ago.  In fact it was the warmest on record in Wausau and much of the Midwest region for that matter.  Accurate temperature record generally date back to around 1880 in our area. 

In Wausau, the average high in March 2012 was 55.3 degrees which is 15.8 degrees above normal.  The average low was 36.3 degrees which is also 15.8 degrees above normal.  The mean temperature for the month was 45.8 degrees.  This eclipses March of 1910 for the record warmest mean when we had 43.3 degrees.  I can’t tell you how rare it is to break the all time temperature record for a month by almost 3 degrees.  Usually if you were to do it, you would squeak by by a degree.  Of course what really put us over the top was the middle portion of the month when record  high temperatures were established on 11 of 13 days in Wausau.

As far as precipitation goes, it was dry.  We had 1.13″ of rain or melted snow in Wausau which is .63″ below normal.  We picked up just 1.6″ of snow, which is 8.4″ below normal.  The lack of moisture did not stop fruit trees and certain flowers from blooming out a good month early.

WHY IT STAYED SO COOL SATURDAY?

We were hoping temperatures might climb up into the lower 60s Saturday but a stubborn layer of low level moisture, stratus clouds, and fog refused to move out.  We had a temperature inversion in place several thousand feet aloft that helped trap the moisture and clouds.  Plus we had southeast winds which this time of the year tend to drag and stable, cool, moist marine air off the cool Great Lakes.  That did not help the situation either.    Below you will see the surface observation map around 4 p.m. Saturday.   The red numbers on the map were the current temperatures.  There was an amazing spread from the lower 40s in Wisconsin to near 90 degrees in eastern Nebraska and 80s in South Dakota.  Of course they had the sunshine out and a wind direction off the Plains helping to drive the warm air aloft down to the surface.  Hopefully we will tap into some of that warmth and sunshine Sunday.

Posted under forecast, Monthly Recap, Records, Seasonal Items

A follow-up for today:

Through the years I have periodically updated you on the subject of bee Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD). Bee populations in parts of the world have declined dramatically. I first became aware of this because it was originally blamed on AGW (back in the hey-day when almost everything was blamed on “global warming”). CCD is important because it is estimated that about a third of our plant-based food is insect-pollinated, much of that by bees. After many years of study, and relegating AGW to a minor role, it has been surmised that CCD is probably a combination of factors, with chemicals maybe playing a significant role in the problem. The latest insight is that popular pesticides called neonicotinoids can cause bees to lose their sense of direction. It probably is not the only thing going on here but if the experiments can be replicated in real-world dosing situations (levels/amounts that are typically sprayed on plants, not high dose lab treatments) it might help turn the corner in figuring out how to keep the bee colonies thriving.

One other suggestion has been percolating is that large bee growing operations might be more susceptible to colony collapse because they do not have much genetic or dietary diversity. If all the bees are nearly the same and they all eat nearly the same food, then they might all fall prey to the same diseases as well.

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Ecology, Pollution

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) released its Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) on 28 March.  You can read the the full press release from the following link.  http://ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_launch_media_advisory.pdf

The report was authored by 220 scientists from 62 counties around the world.  It was based off of hundreds of studies from across the globe that have been peer-reviewed at least 2 to 3 times.  Some of the major points in the press release regarding climate change over the coming decades include.

• Heat waves will likely increase in frequency, duration, and intensity.
• Sea levels will very likely continue rising, causing increased coastal flooding.
• Heavy precipitation events will likely to increase in frequency especially in higher latitudes and tropical regions during the summer and in northern mid latitudes during the winter.
• It is somewhat probable that droughts will increase in duration and intensity especially in central and southern Europe, the Mediterranean Area, North America, Central America, Mexico, northeast Brazil, and Southern Africa.
• It is extremely likely that the frequency of daily record high temperatures will increase and daily record low temperatures will decrease across the globe.
• It is likely that economic losses from climate-related disasters will increase.  (Part of this is due to greater population with time living in risky areas).

You can read the full 600 page IPCC report here.  Good luck!  http://ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_launch_media_advisory.pdf

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Education, Heat, International Weather, Natural Disasters, Science, Weather NEws, World Weather

Yesterday I detailed how economic considerations usually trump environmentalism (and AGW concerns) because of the near-term immediate impact of “economics”. When people are more worried about the next paycheck, they are less concerned with how much the climate might warm up 90 years from now, or how much the ocean might rise 1,000 years from now.

Despite the current economic recession, there are still many people concerned about what might happen to the environment and climate, as am I. Given the sometimes hyperbolic pronouncements of how nearly everything in the biosphere is going to die due to AGW, I am surprised more people don’t at least follow more of the headlines (whether a person is skeptical or not). Even as I am concerned about future pollution, I am not fatalistic. I know that fossil fuel usage is unlikely to continue the same upward trend into the future as it did in the past. I know that technological progress continues and this should help us be more efficient in the future as well as clean up some “messes”. I also know that life has a tremendous ability to adapt.

In the case of adaptability, many people are quite fatalistic about the fate of the oceans as the water warms up, even in the bottom water around Antarctica. Warmer and more acidic oceans are expected to be more hostile to life, including corals. Thankfully, at least in the near term, it appears that corals are not going to all die off. Recently scientists have found corals that can thrive in warmer than normal water and some that can adapt to higher acidity. Still, there might be some limit to which adaptation fails and some sort-of mass extinction occurs in the oceans, as seemed to have happened in the distant past.

If ocean acidification does become a major problem, it will potentially be a harder problem to crack/fix than just plain old warming of a couple of degrees. If heat would get to be too much of a problem, it could be fixed fairly easily with some sort-of sunshade technology. A recent study suggested that sunshade geoengineering would not affect crops too much. But cooling by blocking the sun would not help reduce the acidity of the ocean. Also, as far as future energy sources go, biofuels would once again be the worst choice because they still result in carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere (as well as bunch of other reasons - I have covered before). In addition we also need to keep a close eye on all of the synthetic biology that is being developed in the pursuit of biofuels. Solar, nuclear, geothermal, and wind would probably be our best bets to not only reduce pollution but to reduce the acidification of the oceans. Otherwise, we might end up doing some grand antacid experiments in the future.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Oceans, Pollution

Follow-up: last week I mentioned the HumanBirdWings viral video in the blog and said I was rather skeptical about it. My skepticism was justified as the Dutch film-maker gave up the prank late last week, saying it was an exercise in storytelling. It was also a very good fake video. Read a little more about the fake here.

_______________________________________

Given the warm weather a lot of people have been asking me about the snowmelt contest. It will be starting a few days earlier this year but not until the middle of April. The entry period will be for a couple weeks in April, and then we will wait and watch to see when the snow finally melts. The entry period usually goes through the last day of April but this year, if more very warm weather hits in April, the snow could melt during the last couple days of the month. More than likely it will last into May or June. I will let you know all the details here in the blog when the time comes.

The warm weather also has people thinking about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) a bit more as well, but not as much as you might think. Recent surveys have found that concern about AGW has waned as the economy has worsened. This should not be surprising. Most people are most concerned about their near-term situation. In the current recession, millions of people have lost jobs, food insecurity has increased, some have lost pensions or health-care coverage. These things affect how people will think/behave today or tomorrow. With respect to AGW, it is predicted to be environmental Armageddon, which would be very bad if it happens, but it is a slow-motion threat. It would evolve over the course of decades. The cost of damage to the ocean’s alone could be about $2 trillion according to one estimate, but $2 trillion spread out over decades, again, is not as dramatic. If people are hungry today, they will not focus too much on the prospect of the temperature rising by a few degrees 90 years from now. Now only if people would stop having as many kids (because of economic concerns), they might be able to solve near term problems and long term problems (AGW) at the same time. Whatever moves we make, more bureaucracy, as is suggested here, is probably the worst possible solution. 

This type of simple economic calculation also applies to alternative energy. A recent opinion article really does a good job stating the obvious, that alternative energy technology will not be widely adopted until we run out of fossil fuels. I am not that pessimistic but I know what the reality is. As long as fossil fuels are cheaper than the alternatives they will remain king. Even I declined to buy an electric car when I purchased a vehicle last year. The sticker price of electric car offerings were just too high. So it is left to upper income types to push fledgling technology forward. Most of the rest of us might not be choosing to go electric (or solar/wind for our house) but we are choosing more efficient vehicles. A recent study shows that the average mpg of the U.S. “fleet” is now at an all time high of 23. Good job U.S.! As long as the price of gas remains high, this number should continue to climb in coming years. Both of my cars get over 30 mpg and I hope I can afford one that achieves 40 mpg for the next purchase (if a cheap EV is not available).

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Oceans, Pollution, Weather NEws

While we could have a rumble of thunder around here Monday night into early Tuesday, it appears the main threat of strong or severe thunderstorms will remain from far southern Wisconsin down through the Kansas area Tuesday afternoon.  That region is under a slight risk classification from the Storm Prediction Center.  The reason is that warm, and more humid air will be surging north ahead of a cold front.  Temperatures there could reach the 70s making the air rather unstable.  The cold front would be the trigger to lift the air and initiate the storms.  Strong winds in the atmosphere and turning wind direction in height could allow several of the cells to become supercells with rotation.  Thus a few tornadoes are possible, especially from west-central Illinois into Missouri.  Otherwise damaging winds over 50 mph and hail to 1.5″ diameter will be possible as far north as Janesville, WI.

On a different note, I did a talk at the Simek Library in Medford Saturday regarding weather technology and other topics.  One question from the audience came up regarding the Fujita scale.  That scale has been around for numerous decades as it was developed by Dr. Theodore Fujita in the 1960s and 70s.  It ranks tornado strength on a scale from F0 to F5, with F5 being the strongest.   Research in the past 10 years regarding how winds damage buildings has allowed an upgrade to the scale.   It is now called the Enhanced Fujita scale or EF scale.  You can read all about the scale and how it’s applied by reading this article from the Storm Prediction Center.  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/

Posted under forecast, Severe Weather, Spring, Storms, Tornadoes

Photo from the Associated Press

A boat that was part of the five million tons of “stuff” thrown into the Pacific Ocean during the massive Japanese earthquake and tsunami has been spotted off the Canadian Coast. 

The Associated Press is reporting that the 65-meter long boat is moving toward land, 160 miles off the coastline of British Columbia. 

To put that in perspective, if you were driving down Interstate 39, that’s about 20 miles farther than the distance between Wausau and Madison!

The horrific earthquake and tsunami struck Japan just over one year ago on March 11, 2011.  More than 15,000 people died and it brought about one of the biggest nuclear power plant scares in years.    

According to The Toronto Star, there is no environmental concerns over the abandoned ship, but mariners in the Pacific Ocean need to take warning because “the vessel poses a potential navigational hazard.”

Photo from National Geographic

Posted under Earthquake, Environment, Flooding, Geology, Natural Disasters, Nature, Oceans, Tsunami, Uncategorized, Weather History, Weather NEws

Source: United States Geological Survey

With the source of the mysterious booming sounds and shakes from Clintonville being cited as a series of mini-quakes taking place you might be thinking about where you can learn more about earthquakes from a reliable source. 

The United States Geological Survey is the premiere organization for you to turn toward for information. 

This web link: http://www.earthquake.usgs.org provides a wealth of interesting information.  Perhaps most fascinating is that the page provides two maps that depict the locations of every detected earthquake in both the United States and around the world.  For specific data on individual earthquakes you can click on the map and zoom in toward each quakes’ epicenter. 

The largest of the series of mini-quakes in Clintonville measured 1.5 on the Richter scale.  Though that is very small compared to other earthquakes around the world, it’s the rock types found deep beneath the surface soils that play a large role here. 

Source: University of Wisconsin--Green Bay

Granite is a commonly found rock beneath Clintonville, and much of East Central Wisconsin.  It’s also one of the strongest rock types on the planet.  I asked a geologist at the Universityof Wisconsin—Marathon County yesterday about granite and he said on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the strongest, granite is a solid 10.

That’s an important part in the story.  Strong rock types like granite have little give.  Any shaking below the earth doesn’t have much lee-way when the vibrations move through it.  Softer rock types though have more of an ebb and flow approach. 

So-called earthquake-ready buildings do not try to fight the force of earthquakes, but rather are designed to in a way ride it out.  Rigid structures (strong rocks too) don’t handle this well and shake (or collapse in the case of buildings.)  Relatively flexible structures (and rock types) cope with earthquakes because they allow for more give.        

For a complete report of the 1.5 magnitude quake from the USGS, click here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/usc0008n7t.php

Posted under Earthquake, Education, Geology, Weather History, Weather NEws

The rumors have been flying for the past few years that December 2012 will be the end of the world.  A lot of the hysteria has been fueled by the so called Mayan calendar reaching the end of its cycle at that point.  Throw  in the wacky weather and climate of the past few years, unprecedented  March heat, earthquakes in Clintonville, WI, terrible world economies, and a movie dealing with Earth’s demise, “2012″, and you have all you need to stir up a frenzy.

Well some NASA folks have set out to debunk all the end of the world hysteria.  They have put together a nice article that basically says there is no science, no evidence, and no facts to support the claim that 2012 is the end.  They dive into the following items and explain why we should not be overly concerned about them for this year.

• Planetary alignment
• Magnetic pole shifts
• Planets or brown dwarfs approaching Earth
• Meteors, comets, and asteroids
• Giant solar storms
• Super novas
• Super volcanoes
• Mayan calendar

Well if you are worried that our days are numbered, please check out this NASA link.  It should give you a bit of reassurance if nothing else.   http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html

Posted under astronomy, Natural Disasters, Science, World Weather

On Wednesday we had another record-breaking day across northcentral Wisconsin. That makes 8 record highs in a row and 10 record highs during the last 12 days. Today will probably be the end of the record streak as more clouds and a few light showers are moving through the area. Even though the record highs are probably done, temps will remain well above normal in the 50s and 60s through the end of the month and that means we will very likely set the record for the warmest March ever (in Wausau). The old record for the warmest March occurred in 1910 when the average high temperature was 43.3. So far this year the average temperature for the month is 45.1. The way things look now, the average (mean) temperature could rise up to around 50 before the month is done, so we will likely beat the old record by a few degrees. It is interesting to note that the old record is from a time period which was more known for record lows than record highs. It goes to show that the weather can be surprising. There was a record warm March over a 100 years ago when the climate was cooler. I suppose we could see some record cold at some point in the near future, even though the climate is warmer now. Just look at what happened in central Europe this past Winter.

Back to the topic at hand, the record warm March. Some people have been wondering if the very warm March (and very mild Winter) will lead to a blisteringly hot Summer. In order to find out, I took a look back at the weather records. We have some hand written records that go back to the mid 1970s here at the weather office. They are good for seeing the general trends for different months and years, so I “eye-balled” the highs and lows for months of March for the past 40 years. Then I browsed through the May through August time periods to see if any of those months were hot during the same years as the “hot” March. There were 12 above normal months of March in our records and only two of them were followed by what I would call a “hot” Summer. In 1987, the very warm March was followed by a May, June, and July that were 5 degrees above normal. In 1995, the warm March was followed by a hot Summer. As I mentioned earlier this week, 1995 was the year when we had 9 days in a row of 90 degree weather in the middle of June and it was the last year that we officially experienced 100 degrees in Wausau. The temp rose up to 102 for one day in the middle of July.

There were 3 different warm months of March that were followed by a little above normal summertime temps. There were 4 warm months of March followed by normal or below normal Summer temps. There were three other years where a warm March was followed by at least one hot month later in the Summer, but overall temps were close to normal the rest of the time. So as a rough estimate, it would seem that there would be about a 50/50 chance of having some hot weather later in the year when we have a “hot” March.

For a more rigorous calculation I looked back at the top 20 warmest months of March we have in the record books for Wausau (can be viewed in the Wausau weather book here). I compared these to the top 20 warmest months of May, June, July, and August. It turns out that 10 of the top 20 warm months of March were followed by at least one month later in the warm season (May through August) that was also in the top 20 for warmth.

Some examples: The current record-holder for the warmest March ever is 1910. During that year we also had the 14th warmest June and the 18th warmest July. More recently in 2000 we noted the 2nd warmest March in Wausau and that same year we had the 20th warmest May and the 19th warmest August. In 1995 we had the 15th warmest March and that was followed by the 3rd warmest June and the 4th warmest August.

Using the monthly records we once again find that about 50% of the time, a very warm March is followed by some hot (above normal) weather later in the Summer. 50/50. It figures, right? Many people remark that forecasting the weather is like flipping a coin. It really isn’t but in this case the statistics just happen to fall 50/50. So what do I think? I am going to err on the warm side for the Summer forecast. I think one or two of the months during the period from May through August will find their way into the top 20. Officially, the CPC forecasts that we discussed earlier this week are not picking up any direction toward warmer or colder temps, putting us in the “equal chances” for either or. I think the odds are a little higher that we will have continued warmer than normal conditions at some point during the May through August time period because the general global trend has been warmer over the past few decades. The ocean temps are warmer. The ice in the arctic is thinner. These things matter, and I think tilt the odds toward warmer weather here in Wisconsin as well.

Another thing that will be interesting to see is if March will be warmer than some other months this year. The mean temp for April is 44 and for May it is 57. If for some reason we end up with a very cool pattern in May, it is conceivable that the mean temperature could be as low as 50 which would put it on par with March. There have been 10 different months of May in Wausau that have had a mean temp around 50 or lower.

______________________________________

And now for something completely different. Have you seen the Human BirdWings video? It is stirring up a bunch of controversy. Is it an Internet fake? Has the person actually achieved flight by flapping wings? You can read about the effort a little more in depth here. Seeing is believing, except on the Internet. If I saw it in person, then I would believe it. Since I have not seen it in person, I don’t yet. A couple of interesting points about the physics of the situation: some people have calculated that it might be possible with the motors he used combined with human power AND a 10 to 15 mph head wind. The flight would be possible based on energy calculations alone. I didn’t notice a whole lot of wind in the video. Also, it would be difficult to stand still in a 10 to 15 mph wind with such large wings attached to your body. At 15 mph, you might even be knocked over. Of course, birds can fly with no wind. If he is using correct flapping motion, then there would not be as much need for a head wind.

Another aspect that hints toward fake is that the video is dis-jointed. For such a spectacular achievement, you would think they would have recorded the entire flight from different angles and posted the entire videos. You would think they would have brought more witnesses. They apparently achieved the flight in a public park in the middle of a city in Europe. How come no one else was around and is now talking about it, posting pictures on facebook and such?

In the end, I hope it is real. The set-up doesn’t look too expensive. It would be fun to try it out. What do you think?

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Heat, Records, Technology