Here in the weather blog, when I am not discussing the latest weather theory, news, or forecast, I am usually talking about the future – specifically technological progress. I think it is an under appreciated topic and concern for our future prosperity and happiness. I am always glad to share news of breakthroughs and new engineering marvels, but I also feel a need to periodically remind everyone that there is great peril that comes with technological progress. Almost every new technology could be weaponized in some manner. We also run the risk of being dependent and eventually controlled (against our will) by our technology. Check out this past blog post for a unique look at the situation.

If you are concerned, be heartened, as am I, that some people are now focusing more effort on making sure that humanity survives our increasingly powerful technology. I have mentioned the LifeBoat Foundation in the past (of which I am on the advisory board). Now there is a new effort coming from Cambridge Univeristy entitled “The Cambridge Project for Existential Risk”. I am not sure why they didn’t just join forces with the LifeBoat Foundation, but I am hopeful they can effectively foresee the trouble ahead nonetheless.

Speaking of technology, AGW is one of those threats (which I don’t think is an existential threat) that can be solved through technology. The latest news is of a company Skyonic which claims to have an economically feasible method of taking CO2 out of industrial exhaust gases (like cement factories and power plants). They recently raised $9 million in private financing to test out their method on a cement plant in Texas. The process takes the flue gas and makes sodium bi-carbonate as well as a few other marketable industrial chemicals. Another possibility of using-up carbon and keeping it from getting into the atmosphere is the creation of bio-char, which I have discussed before.

It would be better would be if cement factories could operate without creating any emissions at all, and that is what some scientists from the University of Virginia are proposing with a new solar powered cement making process.

If AGW is going to be a big problem, then it would be better yet if we didn’t need so much cement to support our sprawling unsustainable infrastructure.

Even better would be a continued transition away from the polluted industrial age and fossil fuels. Coal, oil, and gas are still necessary and economical, but solar power (and a few other alternatives) and an electrified economy have many benefits. Here’s to technology!

Have a nice weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Technology

The National Weather Service has released some incredible photos of the wildfires impacting the western United States. 

In the included photo you can see what six wildfires in Montana and Wyoming look like from space.  The photos are from the MODIS satellite that snaps photos of our planet as it orbits Earth.

In the photo you can see the distinction between smoke and clouds quite clearly.  In the photo, clouds look like a collection of cotton balls.  They are a more true white color and limited more toward the northern half of the photo.  The smoke can be identified by its grayish color, texture and shape.  The prevailing winds push the smoke to drift eastward over the landscape. 

This has been a very rough wildfire season so far. Colorado is seeing some astonishingly destructive fires that are encroaching on cities like Colorado Springs. 

Weather obviously plays an enormous role in how wildfires act.  Wind can blow embers from one fire and create a new one in an entirely different location.  Low humidity keeps the atmosphere dry and primes the landscape for kindling. 

Even when thunderstorms develop over wildfires it’s often a curse instead of a blessing.  Dry air is able to work into the storms, so essentially all you get is gusty winds, lightning and very little rain.  The wind helps fan the flames and lightning can get more going.

Though the west is known best for wildfires, we can, have and do get wildfires here.  Be sure to take caution, especially with the 4^th of July holiday approaching on open flames and fireworks when outdoors. 

For a color coded map of all ofWisconsin’s counties that details the wildfire risk, follow this link from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources: http://dnr.wi.gov/topic/ForestFire/restrictions.asp.

Posted under Clouds, Drought, Environment, Fire, Heat, Natural Disasters, Nature, new media, Science, Space, Summer, Weather History, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Wind

The latest environmental (AGW) summit just wrapped up in Rio De Janeiro, 20 years after the initial ”historic” Rio summit of 1992. Here is a summary of the event written by someone who was there at the first summit and was attending the most recent. After reading it, I am much more positive about the future of the environment. Here is a little sample from the article:

I was in Rio for the first Earth Summit. Most of the world’s leaders came too. They negotiated treaties on climate change, biodiversity and desertification. The story was headline news for two weeks. Reporting for this magazine, I felt part of history.

This time the final mealy-mouthed “declaration” was stitched up by civil servants the day before the modest crew of often second-tier politicians arrived. There was not even a place on the agenda for ministers to discuss the declaration, so they didn’t. They spent three days reading prepared speeches and went home. By lunchtime on the final day, the place was emptying. There was nothing to stay for.

An assembly of 45,000 participants to discuss saving the world would seem like environmental profligacy at the best of times. When the outcome is so minimal, the absurdity is amplified. What on Earth did we think we were all doing here?

The problem here is that environmentalists brought the government and bureaucrats into the fold. 20 years ago there was hope and optimism. Now it is all being crushed by bureaucracy. That is what bureaucrats do well - make nearly pointless speeches at expensive, highly unsustainable, and resource wasting conferences. They rarely solve anything and most of the time make it worse. I wish I could have told all the dreamy-eyed and hopeful environmentalists back in 1992 to avoid government involvement. 20 years later, there is a huge environmental bureacracy wasting resources, wasting time, and wasting productive lives.

The most successful “environmental” organizations I have seen during my life are conservation organizations. It is unbelievable how many areas of the world have been preserved and restored through the work of clubs like Trout Unlimited, Pheasants Forever, the Audobon Society, and many others. If the Sierra Club, World Wildlife Fund, and Green Peace had used the billions of dollars they have received through the years to buy and manage natural areas of the world, they would have had much better success. Instead they have used mostly regulation, aggressive legal action, and government bureaucracy to advance their agenda, which makes me wonder if protection of the environment is the REAL agenda.

The key thing to understand here is that the vast majority of people, under their own volition, are willing to sacrifice (donate a little money, adapt their living style, etc…) for a better environment. They do not want to be told (like parent telling a child) to live a certain way. As we have seen in the AGW debate, they don’t want to be forced, by the threat of violent law enforcement, to live a certain way.

I had a friend who had a job a few years ago which required him to go out and talk to farmers who lived near streams and convince them to change their methods in order to protect the water in the stream. Western Wisconsin, at the time, was full of somewhat grumpy and stubborn old farmers. It was a tough job. Many of them did not want to put in any effort to protect the streams (even if it didn’t cost them anything), but some did. Through the years more farmers ended up adopting methods that protected streams. Some of it occurred through regulations and some was voluntary, but the idea of protecting the land and streams grew. It is a slow process, but once a critical mass is reached, then the environmental “offenders” become the minority and become isolated. There is no better method of getting people to “come-around” than through peer pressure. If you are the only farmer left in the neighborhood that allows pollution to run freely in to the stream, you end up being a pariah.

If we used gentle peer pressure – writ large – we would be further along than trying to use the blunt force of government diktats (as seems to be the preferred method of the Rio conferees).

Back to the summary of the Rio summit. There was another positive note. The author cried out for environmentalists to embrace technological progress as a means to help solve environmental problems. It is a shame that someone has to actually ask the large environmental NGOs of the world to embrace technology. Besides investing in large privately managed conservation efforts, they should be investing more in technology to help people live cleaner without having to sacrifice their standard of living. It is an absolute no-brainer. Instead of wasting resources and vastly increasing their carbon footprint by organizing world meetings with second-tier bureaucrats, they could be helping to implement clean-technology.

Have a swell Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change

This week is lightning safety awareness week in the United States and people must be more aware of the danger because lightning deaths have been decreasing in recent years. Back in the 1990s, if I recall correctly, about 80 or 90 people per year were killed by lightning. Now the average is down to 54. Which you could put in the perspective of 1 per state in order to grasp the number a bit better, but in reality more lightning deaths occur in Florida than any other state.

The average number of deaths per year is down to 54 but 2012 was even better when we had a record low of 26 fatalities. So far this year there have only been 4 fatalities due to lightning. I would like to say that all the “awareness” education is responsible for the decline in deaths but I wonder if it has to do with changing human habits as well. People do not spend as much time outside as they used to, plus more people live in the city where lightning deaths are not as likely (because of the tall buildings with lightning protection). Kids and young adults play video games more in the present day instead of engaging  outdoor sports like golf or fishing which have a history of being dangerous in regards to lightning.

Which brings me to the number one safety tip to stay safe from lightning – GO INDOORS! If you hear thunder, it is time to wrap up whatever you are doing outside and head inside. It doesn’t really matter where “inside” is, just as long as you are in some sort-of shelter. It could be a car, truck, garage, barn, house, trailer, you name it. You are almost always going to be safe from lightning if you are inside.

For those times you are stuck outside with no hope of finding shelter, stay away from lone tall trees or utility poles and high areas such as hills. Lightning generally strikes the tallest/highest things around. Resist the temptation to hide under a tree during a storm with frequent lightning. That one lone tall tree on the golf course or at the local park is the most likely spot for lightning to strike. It is better to crouch down near the ground out in the rain and get soaked than to be somewhat dry under a tree and get struck by lightning. A good tip for the golf course is to bring one of those cheap (basically disposable) emergency rain ponchos. They easily fit in your pocket and you can whip it out during a thunderstorm and stay dry, without having to resort to the dangerous practice of standing under the big lone tree.

For more in depth information about lightning and lightning safety, check out this page from the National Weather Service.

Through all the years of researching lightning and protecting people and buildings from lightning, the one device that cannot be beat is the trusty lightning rod. It collects the electricity from the lightning and sends it harmlessly into the ground, thus protecting the building and the inhabitants inside. This does not mean we couldn’t come up with something better. The most recent effort has been to use lasers to trigger and possibly divert lightning bolts. It is a neat idea and there is no reason it wouldn’t work in some locations, but I doubt it would be economically feasible.

Have a swell Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Weather Safety

There has been more than enough flooding between Hurricane Debby in Florida and the State of Emergency in northwest Wisconsin.  But one water phenomenon that is not well known in the United States is the tidal bore.  Also called a true tidal wave, bores are waves that form at the leading edge of the incoming tide and travel against the typical current of the waterway.  These are found mostly near funnel-shaped river mouths or small bays, in relatively few locations worldwide.  One such location is the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia, Canada.  
    “Tidal bores takes place twice a day during the flood tide and never during the ebb tide. A tidal bore may take on various forms, ranging from a single breaking wavefront with a roller to a smooth wavefront followed by a train of secondary waves (whelps). Large bores can be particularly dangerous for shipping, but also present opportunities for river surfing.” ~http://bayoffundy.com/about/tidal-bore/

Tidal bores can cause a rising surge of water 3 feet high that move at 10 to 15 mph.  They can even generate vigorous rapids behind.   To learn more about tidal bores, check out  www.bayoffundy.com

Thanks to my son Douglas Schumacher for researching and assisting in the writing of this post!

Posted under Education, Oceans

Seeing the recent hurricane activity, including the hard-to-pin-down Debby currently in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, reminds me of this past study indicating that costly hurricane damage could increase along the eastern seaboard and Gulf coast of the U.S. While the authors speculate that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) could exacerbate things, the real culprit is the fact that more people are living and building expensive structures near the coast. People in southeast Asia are also gaining wealth and building more along the coast, so yes, around the world hurricane damages will rise, but it might not be due to an increase in hurricane number or strength.

Having expensive “real estate” along coastal regions is a problem of course, but the problem is exacerbated in the U.S. by the National Flood Insurance Program(NFIP), whereby taxpayers are on the hook for coastal mansions and condos. If a coastal area is destroyed by a hurricane year-after-year by a hurricane, taxpayers will foot the bill to re-build everything….year-after-year. This might not seem like too much of a problem except that the dollar amount of losses continues to climb because of the reasons stated earlier. How many times do you want to foot the bill to rebuild New Orleans? Hundreds of billions of public (and private) dollars flowed into New Orleans to rebuild after Hurricane Katrina. The city is below sea level and continues to sink. The oceans level is high and is expected to rise a bit more over coming decades. Prior to Katrina, New Orleans was a disaster waiting to happen. Nothing has changed. It is still a disaster waiting to happen. At some point, you would think someone in the government would write into law that New Orleans will only be rebuilt in its current location one more time, but according to the NFIP, New Orleans will be rebuilt every time.

Now, people along the coast who are reading this will claim that building a house in New Orleans – below sea level – is on par with someone building a house in earthquake-prone California or the tornado-prone Midwest. Disasters happen all the time, right? It is different for most disasters because they are paid for by private insurance. After the Merrill tornado, homeowners were not bailed out by taxpayers, but by private insurance they paid (full price) for. In Grand Forks North Dakota, after the flood in the late 1990s, they rebuilt the downtown away from the flood plain to prevent future disaster.

Have a pleasant Monday! Meteologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Hurricanes

 

Even with better than ever technology and forecast models, tracking tropical systems is no easy project.  Tropical Storm Debby is a good example.  I looked at various models Sunday and they show Debby moving anywhere from the northeast coast of Texas to northeast Florida by Tuesday morning.  The current National Hurricane Center gives Debby a track almost due north into the central Florida Panhandle the next few days. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just to give you any idea of the uncertainty forecasters are facing, look at these various model projections from Sunday for Debby’s track.

First the HWRF takes her to just off the southeast Louisiana Coast by 7 a.m. Tuesday.  You can spot where it is by the series of black circular lines and letter L in the Gulf of Mexico, along with a bullseye of green and blue.  That’s the heavy rainfall associated with it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The next three models, GFDL, NAM, and ECWMF push Debby to a position south of the western Florida Panhandle by Tuesday morning.  The NAM is a good 100 miles farther south though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Finally the GFS model from Sunday morning was showing Debby centered up toward Jacksonville on the northeast side of Florida by Tuesday morning. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It will certainly be interesting to see how this tropical system pans out.  One thing the various models have been pretty consistent with is the strength of Debby.  Most keep her power limited to a tropical storm or possibly a minimal hurricane briefly.  Good luck to all who are in the path.  I hope the flooding, surge,  and wind is not too bad.

Posted under Hurricanes, Natural Disasters, Tropics

This year has been warm thus far, in fact, you could even call it hot, if you are comparing it to normal. January and February were about 6 degrees above normal, March was a record nearly 16 degrees above normal, April was the “coolest” month so far with temps only 2 degrees above normal, and May checked in at about 4.5 degrees above normal. June is running above normal so far as well. In total (through May), the year is running 6.9 degrees above normal. The big question is: Will it continue?

I hope not. At least not for July and August, because that would probably mean some long stretches of hot and humid conditions with many 90 degree days. It is normal human nature to extrapolate what happened in the recent past into the future, so it would be intuitive to say that the rest of the Summer will be hot, but the weather is chaotic and goes in cycles, so a surprising cool trend is not out of the question.

If I had to bet though, I would put my money on continued above normal temps. Maybe not scorching, but certainly plenty of humid days with highs in the 80s.

The CPC is also “betting” (higher chances) on continued above normal temps for the southwestern two thirds of the nation for July, and for most of the nation (including most of  Wisconsin) for the three month period from July through September. You can check out the temperature and precipitation forecasts for the next few months here. Just click on each three month period in the “more outlooks” section. These are three month forecasts. “JAS” stands for July, August, and September.

If you click on the periods later in the year and early next year you will see a good chance of above normal temps for the northern tier of states during the late Fall and Winter. This is most likely due to the expectation that a weak El Nino will form in the Pacific ocean. The latest ENSO discussion indicated a 50% chance that a weak El Nino could form and over the last couple of decades this has always meant warmer than normal temps for Wisconsin during the Winter. I would feel sorry for snowmobilers if we had a second Winter in a row with mild temps and not much snow (due to El Nino). All is not lost though, even during an El Nino Winter, we can get a couple of big snow storms. It only takes a couple storms dumping 10 to 12 inches of snow to get the trails open and in good condition. So don’t get depressed yet. You know how the weather is. Maybe El Nino will not form and maybe it will be a decent Winter for snow conditions. We will certainly keep you updated with future outlooks.

Have a swell Saturday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under CPC Outlook, ENSO Update

It has been a while since I wrote about the whole “the-environment-economy-future-might-seem-bad-but-there-are-still-good-things-happening” theme. I noticed this theme being written about lately in some other top financial and technology blogs as well – which is nice to see. (In my wildest dreams they are reading our weather blog in order to keep on top of developing trends – but that is unlikely to be the case).

One of the technology trends I have been following for a long time is solar energy. The industry has been suffering lately because of a glut in the supply of solar panels and now a lower price of oil probably is not helping. While the businesses side of things are bleak, the technology side continues progressing. I was happy to see a new solar cell record from Sharp recently. Their engineers managed to sqeeze 43.5% efficiency out of a concentrating solar cell for a new world record. As is typical, the cell is probably not ready for the mass market but it is a nice sign that solar power technology is not standing still.

Something that IS ready for the mass market (or at least a niche within the marketplace) is the Tesla Model S sedan. I have been following Tesla since its inception because it was a bold move to go all electric and they have been able to hang on through the years even though their price-point (for the Tesla Roadster sports car) has kept their list of potential buyers quite small. The model S is not cheap either but it is a marvel of technology and it looks hot. It just went on sale this week. Depending on the options, the Model S could range in price from $50,000 up to nearly $100,000. The more pricey models with bigger batteries get nearly 300 miles per charge! I hope they succeed, however, I always get worried about companies that need government loans to get by (as is the case for Tesla). If I win the lottery, a Tesla would be on my shopping list.

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

 

 

On this first full day of summer I noticed that the record low for Wausau is 36 degrees set back on June 21st, 1992.  That was a bad day for agriculture and gardens in Wisconsin and other parts of the Upper Midwest.  Many areas had a pretty hard frost which severely hurt crops.  The field corn was a good eighteen inches high by then.  I still to this day remember looking out into our corn field in the late morning and seeing the top 4 or five leaves of the corn plants blackened and shriveling.  There was even an odd aroma in the air that the damaged plants were giving off.  According to the USDA, the corn crop suffered a 30 to 40% yield reduction that season.  A good chunk of that likely came from that highly unusual late season frost. 

Of course many other plants were hurt as well.  They included tomatoes, peppers, flowers, pumpkin, watermelons, and all sorts of vine crops that can’t tolerate cold air.  As is turns out there was scattered frost the night before into the morning of June 20th as well.  That morning, the Wausau Airport had 37 for a low temperature.  On the 21st, the low was 36 degrees, but many rural locations were more in the 30 to 32 degree range.  Cranberry bogs were down into the mid 20s.

In fact that whole month was pretty cool with highs reaching only the 60s on ten days while highs stayed in the 50s on two days!  The average temperature for the month was about 3 degrees colder than normal.  Just for comparison, we’ve only had two days so far in June 2012 where highs stayed in the 60s and that was right at 69.  Well I hope this type of late season disastrous frost remains a distant memory and we don’t have to repeat it anytime soon.

 

Posted under Ag Weather, Freeze, Records