Sea Surface Temps in May
For those of you that always keep an eye on the long term forecast, one of the biggest clues to where things are headed is the state of the ENSO (El Nino & La Nina) in the central/tropical Pacific. The Climate Prediction Center monitors the trend and issues an in-depth monthly discussion on what is happening.
The latest ENSO discussion has been issued and it looks like there is a chance that a weak El Nino could develop later this year. The CPC is saying it is equally likely that El Nino could form or that the ocean surface temps remain neutral. Why is this important? If an El Nino forms, we would most likely have a warmer than normal Winter. Almost every Winter for the last couple of decades with an El Nino pattern in the Pacific has led to warmer than normal temperatures and less snow than normal. The stronger the El Nino is, the warmer the Winter has been - typically.
Computer Model Forecast
You can view the computer model output here. Of course, the models were run in May and May is a long time from December, so you have to be a bit cautious with the forecast this early in the year. Also, unfortunately, the average computer forecast has not improved much over the last decade. What are called the “dynamical” forecasts have improved slightly, but there has not been any improvement elsewhere since the decade of the 1990s (according to a recent paper in the bulletin of the American Meteorological society).
Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.
Posted under ENSO Update
This post was written by jloew on June 12, 2012
I’ll start with a few questions. Is there really global warming? If there is, what is the cause? Then I ask, have you been seeing what I’ve been seeing these last few years? Where is the sun at 5 AM on June 20th? (Summer Solstice) Then I ask myself, “where should the sun be this morning?” About 75 years ago I learned in geography class that the sun should be down at the tropic of cancer this morning. Mrs. West, my 7th grade teacher, taught me that the tropic of cancer is 15 degrees north of the equator. That is as far north as it came for about 75 of my 85 years on earth. 62 of those years have been in this home in Town of Hill. I don’t know the cause, but the sun is shining in the window in my door on the center of the north side of my home. This is about 40 or 45 degrees north of east. About 12:00 noon, the sun is almost straight up, and perhaps an hour off of lining up with our meridian. I feel that if there is global warming, perhaps this is the reason. Three, four, and five years ago we were told the gulf waters increased in temperature one degree each year. I haven’t heard any reports since, but I have heard that the Pacific Ocean is getting colder, and in Asia, the glaciers are growing, not shrinking. Perhaps the scientists need to stop thinking “Man Made.” Call it “God’s Plan,” or as I do, call it “Nature.”
It would be great if we could get our electricity without fossil fuels. Wind here in Township of Hill is nothing to count on. The sun only shines an average of 12 hours a day, and many days not at all. When it comes to global warming, let’s hope these scientists start seeing things as they really are.
Thanks for the comment Norman. There are a lot of natural cycles going on throughout the decades and centuries that contribute to cooling and warming at different times. The evidence that human society has contributed to the recent warmer weather is also growing.