The heat wave ended with a bang last Friday night as a supercell thunderstorm rumbled across Oneida county. It had all the ingredients and elements necessary to form a tornado and many people saw the low swirling and rotating clouds, but we lucked out. A tornado did not form. It was a close call also because it traveled right over the city of Rhinelander. The good news is that there was more rain in the Northwoods. The bad news is that rain missed the southern part of the area.
Thankfully, the heat has abated, but not before we had a few records. Last week was the first time in a while that we had several locations hit 100 degrees (mainly south of Marathon county). Here in Wausauwe broke a record high on the fourth when the temperature hit 96.
96 was good enough to tie a record on the 5th, but did not quite break a record on the 6th. Still, three days in a row with a high of 96 is remarkable. We also had 5 days in a row when the temperature hit 90, which means…..Tony has won our office forecasting contest, along with Trav of the Big Cheese Morning Show on 107.9. They both predicted 5 days of 90 degree weather during the month of July. We might have more before the month is out but our rules are whoever is closest wins, and since nobody went over 5, they are the winners.
We will have more warm weather for the rest of this year? I addressed this question in an earlier blog entry. People were wondering if a warm March would lead to a hot Summer. So far this has been the case. What about the Fall and early Winter? For that we can turn to the latest ENSO discussion. This is the diagnostic discussion that collates all of the El Nino and La Nina data and gives general guidance for what trends we can expect as we head into the next few months.
The latest set of data indicates an increased chance of at least a weak El Nino forming over the next couple of months and persisting into early Winter. An El Nino has not formed yet but if you click on the figures in the discussion you will notice a lot of the graphs turning orange (which indicates warmer temperatures). The computer models are still a little iffy on when or how strong of an El Nino there might be, but the chances are getting better it will form.
If El Nino would happen to form, it is almost a gaurantee that our warmer than normal temps will continue into the first part of winter (based on the last few El Ninos during the last couple of decades). Warmer than normal temps typically mean not as good of snow conditions as well, however, it only takes one or two big snowstorms to make a “good” Winter. It can’t be as bad as last Winter when we had the snowmobile trails open – barely - for a few days in central Wisconsin and some didn’t open at all. I suppose it could be worse, if the lakes didn’t freeze over. I don’t even want to think about the possibility.
Have a swell Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.
This post was written by jloew on July 9, 2012