Seeing that Tony mentioned some of the effects of El Nino in yesterday’s blog, I figured I should mention that the latest El Nino/La Nina (ENSO) diagnostic discussion was released last week. Not to much has changed in the outlook. The computer models are still indicating a weak to moderate El Nino for this Fall and early Winter. Only one model (the JMA) is forecasting a strong El Nino. A weak El Nino has almost formed already, but many of the atmospheric conditions that go along with El Nino have not developed as of yet. If an El Nino forms, what we could most likely expect for the late Fall and early Winter is warmer than normal temperatures. An El Nino could be bad news for the Midwest as it typically means lower than normal precipitation during the Winter. Check out the computer model forecasts here. Not only could the weather be warmer and drier than normal across the Midwest and much of the U.S. this Winter (because of El Nino), it might be that way across the globe as well. The warmest year on record (according to most statistics anyway) was 1998 when we had a strong El Nino. La Nina has been proven to do the opposite as well – cool the globe.
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And now a follow up to the electric car and battery developments of the past few years. A123 systems seemed like a rising star at one point and I blogged about the battery maker a few years ago. In the intervening years, it started to provide batteries for the Fisker brand of electric sports cars (the Fisker Karma) and it was supposed to provide batteries for the Volt, according to some news outlets. That probably is not going to happen. As I reported earlier this year A123 was having financial trouble. They were heading toward bankruptcy. It seems they are still in bad shape, as the only hope to keep them alive is a possible bailout from a Chinese company. It is kind-of strange, or ironic, or I am not really sure of the term, that A123 was touted and supported by the U.S. government and now it might come under the ownership of a Chinese company.
So what is GM to do? It looks like they are investing hope in a new battery maker – Envia. They are one of the financial backers of the battery company and held a press release about the new better lithium battery just recently. Kind-of old news for everyone who reads the blog. I mentioned Envia’s breakthrough already back in April. Of course, Envia’s product is not yet out of the lab, so GM could be in a bind for a year or two.
Fisker Karma Burning
What about Fisker? They have on of the hottest hybrids on the market in the Karma. They might also have to shop around for a new battery supplier, or they might have trouble staying solvent. Unfortunately, another one of their sports cars went up in flames recently. I feel bad for the engineers who designed such a great car. Safety trouble could be a death knell for the already struggling car company.
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In another follow up, it now appears the UN is also calling for a halt to grain ethanol production in the U.S. As I have written lately, I have my doubts as to the benefits of grain ethanol and the ethanol mandate for gasoline. This issue has been especially crystallized this year with the drought. Burning food while crops burn in the field, doesn’t make too much sense. With advanced and more efficient methods of gasoline production possibly coming online in the near future, ethanol might become and ever expensive option.
Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.
Posted under Alternative Energy, ENSO Update, Technology
This post was written by jloew on August 13, 2012
Actually the El Nino is already affecting the area. During developing El Ninos, the temperatures across the region are typically colder than normal in August. Since 1950, 11 out the 13 El Ninos (that have developed this early) were colder than normal across the Upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes. This is due to a persistent trough across the region.
Thanks for the insight Jeff. I was just wondering where people can go to see and compare this type of climate information, for free, on the Internet? Such as month by month temperature records for the past 50 years, for sites such as La Crosse and Wausau.
Regarding the on-going discussion of battery technology, there is a question that has been rolling about in the back of my mind for a while that I have been meaning to ask. It seems every discussion I have had about alternative energy never leaves the context of our own energy dependence. The cost and sustainability is always evaluated in terms of what the average American is willing to live with. I can’t help but wonder if we don’t miss out on economic opportunities because ideas that would never work here might be just fine in other part of the world. Is it really strange or ironic that a Chinese company would want to take over a battery company? Given the distances traveled by the average American and the availability of cheap fuel, an electric car could be a tough sell to the average commuter in the United States. But, if you consider what life is like in the large cities of Asia, it might be a very practical, or even necessary, choice. As the countries in Asia have developed, we have seen people migrate into densely-populated cities by the tens of millions. Often, they are adjacent to areas with sprawling heavy industry with little regulation against pollution. Under these circumstances, both the cost of energy and the price of higher emissions become things that need to be addressed.
Good points all around Tony. When I mentioned the A123 situation as being ironic, I was referring to how A123 was U.S. government supported and promoted as the ‘next big thing in batteries’. It was at one point tapped for Volt batteries, but that is not working out. Now the Chinese might buy the company, which is a good thing. At least the employees at A123 will still have some hope for the future. And electric vehicles mighht work out well for China. But it is kind-of egg on the U.S. government’s face as they jawbone constantly about how Chinese companies are subsidized and how they want to impose ever more tarrifs against Chinese products. The reality is that economies of the world are too connected for old style protectionism.