Thursday, August 9th NOAA released an update to their hurricane outlook for the rest of the season. In comparison to their May outlook they increased the likelihood of an above normal season and reduced the chance of a below normal season. To date, the Atlantic basin has produced six named storms, which includes four tropical storms (Alberto, Beryl, Debby and Florence) and two hurricanes (Chris and Ernesto). For the remainder of the season, an additional 6-11 named storms are expected, with 3-6 becoming hurricanes and 2-3 reaching major hurricane status.
Some of the key reasons they are expecting a somewhat above normal Atlantic hurricane season include:
- Above normal sea surface temperatures in the main development area. This is part of a longer multi-decadal signal.
- Enhanced West African moonsoon.
- Reduced vertical wind shear.
- Weaker easterly trade winds
- Stronger mid to low level cyclonic curvature.
- Signals from models.
- While El Nino is expected to form in August or September, it’s Atlantic hurricane suppressing influences are not expected to be felt until late Autumn.
Incidently, Tropical Depression 7 formed Thursday in the Atlantic Ocean and could become a tropical storm with a the next few days as it marches westward toward the Caribbean. Late August through late September is the typical peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. You can read the full article on the hurricane outlook upgrade from this link. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
Also you can check out all the daily tropical weather updates and advisories from the National Hurricane Center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/