Did you enjoy the flash of fall weather we’ve been having lately? Even though we have been sitting in overall cooler than normal conditions the past ten days, it doesn’t look like summer is calling it quits yet. The weather patterns will be changing over the next week to a jet stream coming in from the west and southwest into the Upper Midwest. This will drive some rather warm air that has been sitting over the western U.S. right back into our area. It may very well be a fairly persistent flow for several weeks. In fact take a look at the air flow projection for the mid-atmosphere for the first few days of September. It shows that ridge in the Plains with the main core of jet stream winds riding from the Pacific northwest up into Canada. This is a very favorable pattern for above normal temperatures around Wisconsin.
Below you can see that the 6 to 10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has much of the southeast two-thirds of the country in warmer than normal conditions.
Fortunately we should have a more active finish to August with numerous chances of showers and storms. This is reflected in the 6 to 10 day precipitation outlook showing a good chance of above normal amounts in our area. Drier than normal conditions are expected in the western U.S. down through the Southern Plains.
Finally the September Outlook from CPC predicts warmer than normal conditions over much of the country and drier than normal conditions across southern Wisconsin and much of the middle of the nation. If this disturbing trend continues the fire danger will be off the charts for the early autumn with lawns and pastures staying very brown.
This post was written by Tony Schumacher on August 20, 2012