Hunting forecast update: Something new has entered the forecast and it could affect the hunt Saturday morning in at least a few spots - dense fog. The probability of dense fog will be the highest in areas that had the heaviest rain on Thursday. I expect the clouds to gradually break-up tonight and those areas that have some clearing could see the visibilities drop to a quarter mile or below. So be careful driving on the roads Saturday morning and be extra safe in the woods if you are in an area with fog. The fastest way to ruin the hunting season is to have a shooting related accident - so be careful. Other than the potential for fog the forecast is about the same as I have been stating all week. We should have partly or mostly sunny skies during the afternoon on Saturday with a south-southeast wind about 5-10 mph. On Sunday the southeast wind will be about 10 mph. Clouds will be on the increase again on Sunday and there is a slight chance of showers late in the afternoon. Temps will be well above normal. A few spots in the northwoods could start our in the 20s on Saturday morning but most locations will be around 32. Highs around 50 will be common on Saturday afternoon. Low temps on Sunday morning will be a couple degrees above freezing for most areas and high temps should hit the mid to upper 40s. The weather should be good for the Packer game as well. For the third home game in a row, the game time temperature (at noon) should be in the mid to upper 40s and skies should be partly cloudy.

The latest long range climate outlooks have been released.

December Projection

The computers are forecasting a higher chance of above normal temperatures than below normal temperature for our area - during December and for the Dec-Jan-Feb period. The news is not all bad though. Even though it looks like the moderate El Nino will continue through December and much of the winter, we also have an active Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Pacific which could bring a bit stronger storm systems in the West coast, a couple of which could bring some snow and cold air to the Midwest during December. You can read the monthly discussion here.

Dec-Jan-Feb Temp Forecast

You can see all of the monthly graphics here. To me, it still looks like we are in for a warmer than normal Winter (at least in the beginning) and poorer snow conditions than most years. We will likely have a couple periods of colder air and some heavier snow but these will be less frequent than the milder stretches of weather. So snowlover’s don’t give up hope, even during the super El Nino of 1997-98 we had a couple weeks in January when we had colder weather and good snow conditions. Also, if El Nino wanes after December then we might have a “good” end to the winter with better snow conditions.

In the shorter term, it looks like our first chance for accumulating snow this month will come on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It is still too early to forecast amounts but there will be a significant storm moving across the central part of the nation and it could track close enough to Wisconsin to bring a few inches. Stayed tuned to Brian and Kristen’s forecasts over the weekend on this potential storm that could affect holiday travel. As of now, the weather on Thanksgiving day looks ok. It looks colder (highs in the 30s) but mainly dry.

Spirit Rover Update:

Earlier this week I reported that NASA/JPL is now attempting to get Spirit unstuck from a sand trap on Mars. The first try didn’t go so well as the tilt of the Rover caused an abrupt abortion of the attempt. The second attempt to move Spirit resulted in success measured in millimeters. Contollers instructed the rover to spin its wheels enough that if it was travelling normally would cause it to travel about 8 feet. This resulted in a few millimeters of movement - which is better than nothing. They will continue to move slowly in coming weeks.

Staying on the space theme, a couple industry observers offer differing opinions on how much progress (if at all) we will observe in human spaceflight over the next decade or two. I agree that if NASA drops the ball on human space flight then private industry will step in to fill the demand. There are enough rich scientists and visionaries on the planet to propel private human spaceflight in coming years.

Have a good weekend! Hunters stay safe while out in the woods! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, ENSO Update, Space, Winter Weather

Wow…the video coming in from the meteor viewed yesterday in Utah is just awesome.  Justin told  you about it this morning but I thought I would share some more video I found.

Check out some of the links…

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8367760.stm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjUO56W1KP8&feature=player_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqB-1_AXOTg&feature=player_embedded

And some good news coverage…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1ZKm2Cru4E&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gcWeLGNLgA

Crazy…it literally lit the sky to daytime light levels!!!

Scientists feel it will be possible to trace where the meteor may have landed by using all of the video available.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Science, Space

It is still looking a little too warm for the opening weekend of the gun deer hunting season, although we have dealt with warmer conditions in the recent past. I think it was near the beginning of this decade that we had high temps in the low 60s on opening day. This year will not be that warm but it will be the warmest in several years. I have upped my forecast for Saturday to 49 (in Wausau) an some spots could top 50. The only cold weather will be Saturday morning around daybreak when temps could drop into the 20s in the northwoods. On Sunday morning much of the area will be at 32 or a little above. More clouds will move in for Sunday and there is a 30% chance of drizzle or light showers during the afternoon. High temps on Sunday should reach the mid 40s. As far as the wind goes, it will be nearly calm Saturday morning then a light southeast wind will develop during the afternoon. The south to southeast wind will pick up to about 10 mph on Sunday.

The most interesting weather could develop early next week. We could have our first significant snow of November. Right now I am forecasting a chance of rain on Monday and a chance of snow on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, our long term computer models are divergent. One of them shows the active weather completely missing the area. So it is wait and see. Stay tuned for updates here in the blog and on Newsline 9.

We discussed the Leonid meteor shower earlier this week and it did not turn out very spectacular here in Wisconsin but in Utah they had quite a show - not from the Leonid meteor but from a stray large meteor. Experts estimate the meteor that burned up in the atmosphere was about as large as an oven and moving at 80,000 mph. When it burned up/exploded in the sky over Utah it was bright enough to turn night into day. You can see video of the event here. These events happen more often than people know because they often times occur during the day when they cannot be seen as easily or they happen over the oceans or in remote areas where no one is there to observe. Thankfully, larger asteroids have not yet hit the earth. Astronomers are busy cataloging large near earth objects - ones that could impact the earth - in order to identify anything dangerous and plan for a way to protect the earth.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Space, Winter Weather

Taking a look ahead with the long range computer models, we could get our first blast of winter right around Thanksgiving.  The forecast models have an area of low pressure developing across the plains late Sunday, and will intensify as it tracks across the Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday.  As the low tightens, a strong northwest flow could develop on the systems backside.  A strong upper level trough will then sag across the midwest for the first time in almost a month. 

By Thanksgiving, the GFSx computer model forecasts 850 mb temps around +8.  With out any sun, surface high temperatures would not rise above freezing.  Now this is a very long range forecast, so don’t put too much weight on it…especially since we are experiencing El Nino conditions.  El Nino conditions tend to keep our pattern more zonal(west to east) with would totally minimize this cold snap.  So we could very well end up staying in the pattern were currently in. 

But that’s what a blog is for I guess…to toss around uncertain ideas.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Winter Weather

Before I forget, I just wanted to update “the coldest temperature of the season thus far”. Land O’ Lakes had a low of 13 on Monday and then beat that mark by one degree with a low of 12 on Tuesday morning. That is the coldest temperature from the FAA/ASOS reporting stations from across the state so far this cold season. Does anyone have a guess as to what the coldest temperature of the entire winter season will be? (In Wisconsin at the standardreporting sites). Even though we have a moderate El Nino right now and this would tend to keep things warmer than normal, there is no guarantee El Nino will last all winter. Also we sometimes have some blasts of cold air that interrupt the milder pattern. Even during the mega El Nino of 1997-98 we had a low of -15 in Wausau on one morning in January. That being said, I think the lowest this year will not be as low as the last couple of winter’s which I think was in the -35 to -40 range. I am going with -29. What is your guess?

The hunting weekend forecast still looks good. Partly to mostly sunny skies should develop on Saturday afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40s. There will be increasing clouds on Sunday and a slight chance of showers late in the afternoon. High temps should be in the 40s again on Sunday. A light southeast wind should prevail on Saturday and get a little stronger on Sunday. The next chance of snow looks to be the middle of next week at the earliest.

Did you ever write something and then thought better about posting it? That is what happened to the rest of this blog entry. It was some great sarcastic writing about Copenhagen, AGW, regulations, and solutions and ended up in the realm of the Voluntary Human Extinction Movement. Now deleted. I didn’t feel like dealing with negative reactions today. So how about this:

Go Packers!

Much less controversial.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Winter Weather

First there was “cloud seeding” in China now the Venezuela president is trying to zap the clouds to produce rain.  Venezuela’s president Hugo Chavez is going to join a team from Cuba who will fly into “bomb clouds” that they will zap to hopefully produce rain.  The nation is in a severe drought and going to the measure of three minutes showers to save water.  They are blaming the water shortage on the El Nino which is causing critically low water levels at reservoirs and also impacting their electricity since they produce alot of their electricity from hydroelectric projects.

Recently I have been wondering what I can do to get better gas mileage?  I know as winter approaches it is only going to get worse and for some reason I seem to be getting less miles to the gallon then before!  I searched and found this article and I thought it had some good tips!  I know I live by one of the them- cruise control, I will put on the cruise even for a very short time.  I think it helps me stay at one speed and makes driving much easier. 

Across the US we saw the third coldest October on record.  But across the world we saw the 6th warmest October, including sea and land temperatures.  For all the stats and details you can check out the article that was released today on NOAA.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Alternative Energy, Environment, Science, Uncategorized

First a look at the deer hunting forecast for this weekend. It looks about the same as it did yesterday. I am forecasting high temps in the 40s on both Saturday and Sunday. Low temps should be in the upper 20s to low 30s on both mornings, some areas might even be a couple degrees above freezing. I expect partly sunny skies to develop on Saturday afternoon and then increasing clouds again on Sunday. The wind should be out of the southeast on Saturday and Sunday - about 5 to 10 mph on Saturday and 10 to 15 mph on Sunday. I am still calling for a slight chance of showers late Sunday afternoon.

On the subject of deer hunting, I found this link in our weather office bookmarks titled “Our Deer Hunting Heritage“. I hate to say it but the fellow is correct when he says “Our whitetail heritage is in great jeopardy. As deer hunters we currently exist as an endangered cultural minority fast fading into the dustbins of history.” This might seem little surprising coming from a fellow living in Barneveld Wisconsin because Wisconsin has one of the largest deer hunting traditions in the nation (and maybe the world), however he is right on the money. The deer hunting heritage is fading as fast and in a similar fashion as our farming heritage. Human society grows more urban and disconnected with nature every year. The recent “locally grown/organic” fad is just a blip on the overall trend. Some people are sad to see the loss of our heritage of country living that includes farming and hunting, as am I, but I cannot blame people who are moving in a new direction. Throughout human history each generation has tried to make the world better for the next generation and this usually involves making life easier. I grew up on a dairy farm and it was not an easy life. I appreciated my experience and I am better off for it, but it was not easy. I woke up and milked cows before heading off to school. In the present day, the number of kids laboring an hour or two before school is nearly zero, and they are happy about it. The only animals most kids encounter are cats and dogs. So it should come as no surprise that younger generations do not hunt nor do they understand the cultural heritage of hunting. The disconnect is not as bad in Wisconsin (as referenced earlier) but it is happening. Unfortunately for hunters, there is likely no turning back. I fully expect the decline to continue and there is little to do about it. I also expect hunting to be banned in the not too distant future (maybe a decade or so). The hunting population is only a tiny fraction of society as a whole, and seeing as we live in a representative republic….well, you do the math. Enjoy the heritage, the camaraderie, and the challenge while it lasts.

Alternative Energy News:

I enjoy keeping track of alternative energy developments as a way to counteract all the negativity that comes with AGW and Peak Oil news. While the overall trends of alternative energy development remain very positive, it is not all rosy all the time. Consider these recent reports about the solar energy industry: German solar panel producers are initiating lay-offs due to cooling demand and a supply glut is causing price erosion in the solar market. The supply glut could be good news for consumers, as prices for PVs will come down, but it can be tough on the producers. On a positive note, it seems solar manufacturers are suffering supply/demand cycles similar to the semiconductor industry. Does this mean they will experience the same growth and efficiency gains as the semiconductor industry experienced over the last couple decades? Maybe. I hope so.

For those of you who a resting some hope on nuclear fission to move us into a new energy future - here is some cold water for you: private stocks of fissionable material could run out by 2013. That is a pretty scary prediction - if true. We would still have nuclear material in bombs and government stockpiles, but that would not last very long either. Perhaps the lack of fissionable material and the increasing price of oil will lead to faster solar development.

Even in the world of electric cars, there are more bumps in the road. BMW, the company that leased the Mini E (an electric mini cooper) as a test in the U.S. has ran into many operational difficulties. The individual cars are operating fairly well. The problem comes with government bureaucracy and infrastructure. Getting the correct and desirable plug in and voltage for your electric car can be tricky. Also, there are 40,000 local electric authorities and 3,300 utilities to deal with in the U.S. when trying to connect to the grid. That’s a lot of headaches.

Bureaucracy is a problem but sometimes business decisions can doom a company as well. Have you ever wondered why the Aptera has been delayed? Here is a recent article describing the management change at Aptera that induced a redesign of the car.Seems the main point of contention was that the windows should roll down. Besides making it easier to stop at a drive through restaurant, this would also keep a person cool if the air conditioner would happen to break. The original founders of Aptera wanted to sell the original model this year. A car company veteran who was hired as CEO demanded the design changes and this has delayed the roll-out of the vehicle. It also resulted in the founders of Aptera getting canned. They are gone. While it is typical for outside investors to oust the original founders (typically people who do not have good business acumen), I don’t think this is good news for Aptera. They already have the trouble of over-coming the quirky design and now the roll-out will be delayed to the point where other competitors will gain a foothold in the market ahead of them.

There is better news for the Nissan Leaf. It is currently on a nationwide tour of the U.S. Sadly, the closest the tour will get to us is Detroit.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Peak Oil

Well …we have a classic Cut-Off Low pressure system spinning to the south.  The center of the low will move at a snails pace, because it has cut itself off from the jetstream.   Look for the precipitation to inch northward through the week, giving us a chance of showers by Wednesday night, and possibly mixing with snow showers on Thursday.  Right now heavy snow continues to fall with this system across eastern Kansas.  An isolated spot in Kansas picked up a foot of snow.  This storm will loose alot of it’s punch by the time it reaches us Wednesday night. 

The late week precipitation will likely be light but the exact timing of the precipitation with this system is a bit uncertain.  These systems can be tricky to forecast and the computer models can also have quite a bit of trouble with these types of storms…

Until then we will remain mild…. Check out Heather Sawaski’s story on how this has affected the opening of Granite Peak..

Posted under Winter Weather

We have seen some beautiful weather and I had the opportunity to go flying with a friend from high school on Sunday. I took some pictures of the area including Rib Mountain, Lake Wausau, a cranberry marsh, and the dam at Lake Dubay. 

It was a beautiful day for sightseeing although it was bumby at times from the winds and also rising air from the ground.  This is invisible to the naked eye but occurs from air pockets rising from different heats radiating off of different objects on the ground.  You can notice the rising air in smaller planes and when you are only a few thousand feet off the ground ( the higher you go the less noticeable it is).  Different tography( trees, crops, water) radiates different heat which means different updrafts.  The key is that it has to be warm.  It is especially noticeable when you fly during the summer.  The heat from the buildings will actually bounce the plane up and down. Even though yesterday wasn’t to warm there were still slight the differences between the lakes and grassy areas causing slight turbulence.  Here is a little explanation.      

Tonight is also the Leonid’s meteor show it will be here Tuesday in the early morning.  Unfortunately by the time it gets here it will only be about 1 meteor every couple minutes.    

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Science, Space, Travel, Uncategorized

We set a new mark for “coldest temperature of the season” this morning - anyway, coldest at FAA reporting sites. The temperature dropped all the way down to 13 in Land O’ Lakes. Here in Wausau the the low was 21 which was also the coldest of the season so far. This might have some worried about the weather trend for the upcoming deer hunting weekend. Don’t get too concerned. It looks like some mild weather will prevail on Saturday and Sunday - maybe to mild. In the past when I have hunted, it seems the perfect day is a low temperature in the 20 to 25 range and a high temperature a little above freezing, let us say 33 to 39. Partly sunny skies are nice as well. As long as the high temperature stays in the 30s, then any snow on the ground will not melt (which is not a concern this year), the harvested deer cooldown quickly, and you don’t have to shed too much clothing. I have gotten too hot in previous years when lows were in the 20s and high temps were in the 45 to 50 range. I guess the best way to prepare for that type of weather is to wear layers instead of a big insulated suit/parka. That is the type of preparation that might be needed for this upcoming weekend.

It looks like the day will start out in the mid to upper 20s. Partly sunny skies and a southeast wind (about 10 mph) on Saturday will help boost the temperature into the mid 40s (maybe even the upper 40s). That is not too hot for hunting but it is pushing it. On Sunday, the southerly wind will continue as well as the mild temps. Low temps on Sunday will likely be a little above freezing and high temps will reach the low to mid 40s. If there is some hazy sunshine on Sunday, then high temps might get close to 50. That being said, I do expect more clouds on Sunday and I am currently forecasting a 30% chance of light showers. I have seen some hints that the rain might hold off until Sunday night, so the Sunday forecast could change a bit as the week rolls along. Stay tuned for updates here in the blog.

Space News:

A few updates from the sky above this week. The LCROSS mission planners (the “bombing the moon” mission, which was a terrible choice of words) have analyzed more of the data returned from the impact and have found a signature of plentiful water in the shadowed area of the target crater on the moon. This is great news and bolsters the chances of building a successful human colony on the Moon.

The “bombing the moon” terminology has led a group of concerned citizens to create a group called Friends of the Moon to protect it from further harm and impact missions. The moon has been “bombed” at least a couple dozen times in the past with no ill effect and the LCROSS mission did no harm either - as expected. Yet the terminology used to publicize the effort garnered too much of the wrong kind-of attention. Some people speculated that the moon would “ring”, or “hum”, or fracture, or something bad and that there would be wide ranging effects even here on earth.

The Spacecraft DAWN has entered the asteroid beltand will remain there for the rest of its mission. It will rendezvous with the asteroid Vesta in approximately 619 days - doesn’t that seem like forever. It will orbit Vesta for a while and then take off for the dwarf planet Ceres (which is also in the asteroid belt). Thinking about how long these missions take sometimes makes me a little pessimistic on the hopes for human travel to the rest of the solar system. The only way I could envision the trip (with current engine/rocket technology) is to have one or two stops at large rotating space stations. These would provide a false gravity and give passengers a chance to “stretch their legs”, making a 1 or 2 year trip a bit more palatable.

On Mars, mission planners are hoping to test escape manuevers with the rover Spirit today. As you know, poor Spirit has been stuck in sand for the last couple months. Engineers have tested different escape move here on earth and plan to start using these with Spirit today. Updates are sure to come later this week. If it cannot get unstuck then it will likely end the mission for Spirit. Thankfully, Opportunity has been doing well and will continue exploring.

You may have heard the Leonid meteor shower is expected to be above average this year. That may be so in Asia tonight, but by the time we have an opportunity to see the shower here in the U.S. (early morning on Tuesday), the meteor rate is expected to be only 1 every two to three minutes. I have seen some good meteor showers in the past when the rate was 2 or 3 every minute, and that was pretty cool. Once you get less than 1 per minute, it gets a little more difficult to see and enjoy.

Speaking of something that was a little difficult to “see” and enjoy was the movie 2012. I saw it with my wife on Friday afternoon. It was certainly a huge special effects disaster bonanza and on some levels I did enjoy it. However, the drama and disaster special effects were just a little too over the top for my taste. An interesting note about the movie is that there were at least 4 specific mentions of Wisconsin in the movie (might have been 5). It makes me wonder if one of the writers, directors, or producers were from Wisconsin. Also, just in case you were wondering if any of the 2012, Mayan calendar, Nibiru, disaster scenarios are true, the answer is no - based on all the available evidence to date. There is exactly zero supporting evidence to date - so don’t get too worried. (Another debunking of 2012 scenarios)

And in our “fun and interesting yet time-wasting” segment today - how about this very detailed 3D video rendering of the Hudson River plane crash from earlier this year. Listening to the conversation between the pilots and the tower was amazing in that respect that they remained quite calm. I was also surprised at how long it took the air traffic controllers to realize that the plane had lost both engines and there was no possibility of landing at a nearby airport.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Space