The biggest neHaumaews of the day is the latest El Nino monthly discussion, released yesterday. El Nino has strengthened! It has now reached moderate strength(1 degree above normal) in 2 of the El Nino regions and is getting close in the other 2 regions.

El Nino Strengthens

The dynamical and statistical computer models mostly indicate that a moderate El Nino will continue through the winterand then start to weaken in March. Only 4 out of the 21 projections indicate a weakening El Nino starting already in December. What does it mean for our winter weather? It raises the odds that temperatures will be above normal (on average) and that snowfall will be below normal. It still does not guarantee we will have a mild winter, just raises the odds. What I expect is mild temps on average, punctuated by a couple periods of significantly colder and snowy weather. If we happen to get a couple big snowstorms then snow conditions could end up being fairly decent as well.

If we have less than normal snowfall, it will make me sad, not only because I like to see big snow in the winter, but because we still haven’t completely recovered from the late summer drought.

Drought in the North

The latest US Drought Monitorindicates a slight improvement in the Wisconsin over the last week. Big snow would help the improvement continue. Of course, if we had some rain over the winter, that might help as well, but I would rather have all snow. Drought conditions in the rest of the country have not changed all that much recently. Texas is doing slightly better and California is doing slightly worse. Californians are probably hoping for a stronger El Nino to help recharge their water resources. A strong El Nino usually brings a lot of winter precipitation to California, especially the southern 2/3 of the state.

Earlier this week I highlighted some extreme cold we experienced back in November of 1951. Just as a follow-up there was also a major snowstorm in the middle of the country during that time period in 1951. Here is an entry from the weather history book for today.

1951- Snow fell from the Texas panhandle to the Lower Great Lakes, leaving record totals of 12.5 inches at Saint Louis MO, and 14.1 inches at Springfield MO. Other heavier snowfall totals included 20 inches at Nevada MO, 13.5 inches at Sedan KS, 13 inches at Decatur IL, and 10 inches at Alva OK. In the Saint Louis area, up to 20 inches was reported in Washington County. (5th- 6th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

Wisconsin was mostly missed by the big snow, but of course we did experience some bitter cold.

Another follow-up, this time in space. Data is being assessed from the latest Cassini flyby of Enceladus and a new picture has been released: see here. So far, all that has been determined is that the plumes of water vapor/ice are less dense than originally thought. Cassini will make another flyby next year. I find it amazing that this tiny moon is active. I wonder what it would be like standing on the surface near the geysers.

Speaking of active objects in the solar system, it has been recently discovered that a Kuiper belt object - Haumae(smaller than Pluto) - has a dark red spot. It is not a spot like the one on Jupiter because Haumae is a solid planet/object. The astronomer who discovered the spot suggests that it was recently struck by another object or that some matter from the interior of the planet is bubbling to the surface. I find it amazing who much activity is occurring on what were long thought to be “dead” objects, planets, and moons.

Just for fun, how about some cool pictures of islands from space. The one I like the most is the one that shows an island as well as a cool fluid dynamics phenomenon(the atmosphere obeys the equations of fluid motion). The vortices are formed when the air moves around the island. The vortices remain stable for quite some time before dissipating. It would be interesting to be at the surface in that picture and look up through the holes in the sky. Since these are small scale phenomena, you might even be able to detect the swirling motion (most certainly if you constructed a time lapse of photos).

And one last time-waster: some cool optical illusions presented and explained at the San Francisco Exploratorium.

Have a fine weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Records, Space, Viewer pictures, Weather History