Taking a look ahead with the long range computer models, we could get our first blast of winter right around Thanksgiving.  The forecast models have an area of low pressure developing across the plains late Sunday, and will intensify as it tracks across the Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday.  As the low tightens, a strong northwest flow could develop on the systems backside.  A strong upper level trough will then sag across the midwest for the first time in almost a month. 

By Thanksgiving, the GFSx computer model forecasts 850 mb temps around +8.  With out any sun, surface high temperatures would not rise above freezing.  Now this is a very long range forecast, so don’t put too much weight on it…especially since we are experiencing El Nino conditions.  El Nino conditions tend to keep our pattern more zonal(west to east) with would totally minimize this cold snap.  So we could very well end up staying in the pattern were currently in. 

But that’s what a blog is for I guess…to toss around uncertain ideas.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Winter Weather