A fairly large chunk of the country as of the February 7th was on the dry side.  NOAA and the USDA reports abnormally dry conditions across the western half of Upper Michigan into the northwest half of Wisconsin.  Minnesota is in rougher shape with much of the state listed as in a moderate to severe drought.  That extends into the far eastern portions of the Dakotas.  Moderate to severe drought is also plaguing the western U.S. from the Great Basin down into the Desert Southwest.  They have not had many snowstorms this winter out there either. 

 Some of the same areas that were at record dry levels last growing season from southern Kansas to much of Texas are still in a severe to extreme drought.  It is also very dry around Florida, Georgia, and right up into the Carolinas.

According to the seasonal drought outlook into the summer, the drought is expected to overall persist in many sections that currently are so dry.  Let’s hope it doesn’t expand across Wisconsin.

Posted under Ag Weather, CPC Outlook, Drought, Natural Disasters

Weather or the lack of real winter weather has been a major topic of conversation this winter of 2011-12 around here and much of the country.  Some friends of mine from Medford, Loretta and Hildegard Kuse were kind enough to share some newspaper clippings from the winter of 1890-91 with me.  As you can imagine, weather was a major topic of conversation back then as well.   Enjoy the news snippets below which deal with birds, warmth, cold, snow, and logging in Taylor County, WI at that time.

Taylor County Star and News. January 24, 1891, Star, Vol. XV, No. 34, News, VOL. XII, No. 50.

Barney Ackerman is our authority for the statement that last week, while at work in the lumber woods, Peter Molitor and Mike Greisch discovered a bird’s nest with two live young birds comfortable ensconced therein.  It is supposed that these birdlings are of the cross-bill variety, and it is not know that they habitually next in winter.  No case of a similar kind has ever come to the writer’s knowledge in all his life in the wooden county but it tallies exactly with all the signs and omens that have been forthcoming of late, signs and omens that promise a continuous mildness during the balance of this unparalleled mild winter.

Taylor County Star and News. February 7, 1891, Star, Vol. XV, No. 36, News, VOL. XII, No. 52.

The thermometer reached forty below, Wednesday morning.  The birds that built nests got fooled after all.

Taylor County Star and News. February 7, 1891, Star, Vol. XV, No. 36, News, VOL. XII, No. 52.

Two weeks ago we reported the finding of a bird’s next in the town of Molitor with two live young birds therein.  We are under obligations to Mr. W.F. Webster, of Oshkosh, for the information that the regular nesting time of the cross-bill is from December to March.  They are a very hardy bird, being found as far north as Hudson’s and Baffin’s Bays, and Mr. Webster believes that they feed upon pine seeds, their bills being peculiarly adapted for extracting the seeds from the tough burrs.  He also says that their eggs sometimes freeze in very cold weather, as they are careless in building their nests, frequently using for that purpose holes made by the woodpecker.  Mr. Webster’s information removes this find from the list of remarkable occurrences.

Taylor County Star and News. February 7, 1891, Star, Vol. XV, No. 36, News, VOL. XII, No. 52.

The snow storm was not an unmixed blessing, after all.  The developments in the science of logging road building during the past few years has made snow a luxury, not a necessity.  When the time came for hauling logs last fall, and the snow did not come with the time, lumbermen proceeded to make roads by digging trenches for the sleigh runners, and filling them with broken ice and water.  The result was good roads for the horses would travel on the solidly frozen ground and the runners of the sleigh would follow in the trenches of ice.  The snow came and covered the trenches to the depth of a foot or more, so that they could not be seen, and the sleigh runners would cut through the loose snow to the ground.  It took several days to get a good road-bed after the storm.  Hence we say the snow was not an unmixed blessing.

Did you notice the writing style and word choice was a fair amount different than what you would see in a newspaper today as well?

Posted under Ag Weather, Community, Seasonal Items, Weather History

The Climate Prediction Center has released the 30-Day Outlook for October and if you like dry and mild conditions this time of the year, you may be in luck.    The outlook actually paints an areas from the Southern Rockies and Plains up through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with above normal temperatures for October.  It also shows drier than normal conditions from the Southern Plains up through Wisconsin.  While this would increase the fire danger around here, it is horrible news for Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, and parts of Louisiana and Arkansas that have been under such extreme drought for nearly a year.  There appears not to be any substantial relief in sight.

A La Nina pattern has developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and it will likely strengthen some and linger through next spring.  Remember it was a strong La Nina last fall through spring that was blamed in large part for the extreme drought in the southern U.S.  They typical don’t get much storm activity down there over winter with a La Nina.  It is just the opposite with El Nino.  It is typically wetter than normal from California to Florida.  I guess they’ll have to hope for some tropical storms to move in yet this early autumn to drive some rain in, hopefully without the wind damage and surge.

I agree with the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for October in Wisconsin.  The longer term computer models are showing a large high ridge of high pressure developing in the middle and upper atmosphere over the central U.S. next week that will likely maintain itself off and on through at least mid-October.  The chart below is a model prediction in the mid levels of the atmosphere for next Wednesday, September 28th.  The main storm track or jet stream is projected to run from California northeast up into central Canada which would keep any cooling or rain bearing storms away from our area.

Model projection for mid-atmospheric pattern Wed. Sept. 28th

Well this pattern would be ideal for Wisconsin farmers for harvesting and pleasant for all the folks wanting to view fall colors as well.  Now we can just be patient and see how it pans out!

Posted under Ag Weather, CPC Outlook, Drought, ENSO Update

I’ve got some not so good news for those of you with seasonal fall allergies.  A study by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and others indicates that ragweed pollen season over the past 30 years has gotten longer.  For example in Madison, it’s about 12 days longer, Minneapolis, 16 days longer, to as much as 28 days longer in Winnipeg.  The main driving force behind this is believed to be a warming climate.  Average dates of killing freezes have been pushed back as the climate changes.  While a hard freeze in fall reduces pollen production significantly, it usually doesn’t disappear until a good snow cover has developed.  The average dates of continuous snow on the ground has also slipped later into the year extending the allergy season.  Interestingly enough though, the length of ragweed pollen season has actually shrunk in southern locations like Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  While no definitive reason is given, maybe it’s getting too hot there for ragweed to stay healthy deep into the fall.   Or perhaps it matures earlier in the season and then shrivels up in the fall.  By  the way, a ragweed plant can produce up to 1 billion pollen grains.

Common Ragweed

The American Academy of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology (AAAAI) says about 12 million Americans are impacted by fall allergies.  Besides ragweed, dust mites and mold come into play.  Of course areas that have had a wetter summer and higher humidity will have more mold problems.  They say in general a warmer climate causes plants to produce more pollen than they used too.  This is accentuated by the increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere now.  Of course plants use CO2 and sunlight to produce energy. CO2 allows plants to produce not only more pollen, but more intense pollen.  As such there are more allergens per grain of pollen than years ago in many species.

The AAAAI also suggests that easting a plethora of fresh fruit can enhance allergic reactions in some people.  The different varieties of pollens mixing together in your body can confuse the body’s immune system.  They say though, don’t stop eating fresh fruits.  The health benefits outweigh the possible side-effects.

Well, good luck if you are going through that annoying routine of sneezing, runny eyes and nose, and itchy throat right now.  I feel for you, as I get hit some as well.  Just keep thinking cold thoughts like hard frost, and snow!

Posted under Ag Weather, AGW, Allergies, Climate Change, Ecology, Environment, Fall, Freeze, Seasonal Items, Weather and Health

With scattered frost in the forecast for early Tuesday morning, the smell of wood smoke in the air, and a few early bird maple trees with color on,  it certainly has the feel of autumn.  Even though we have plenty of warm weather coming up, it’s a good time to review some interesting autumn weather facts for Wisconsin.

To begin with, the average date of the first 32 degree temperature in the TV-9 viewing area ranges from ar0und Sept. 10th in some northern locations to around October 1st in the far southeast part of the area.  It’s as late as mid-October for southeast Wisconsin right along the balmy waters of Lake Michigan.  It’s important to remember that you usually experience frost on car windshields, rooftops, and lawns sooner than an ”official” 32 degree temperature is reported.  That’s because those surfaces cool off faster than the air does.  Also, the “official” temperatures are measured around 6 feet off the ground. Since cold air settles, it will usually be cold enough for frost on the ground on clear autumn nights when it is around 34-35 degrees at 6 feet.  For more details throughout the state check out the graphic below from the Wisconsin State Climatology Office.

Here’s a look at the average temperature across Wisconsin in the September through November period from 1971-2000.  This is the average taking into account the low and high temperatures.  It ranges from the low 40s in northern Wisconsin to the low 50s F in the far southeast.

Now, let’s take a look at the average autumn precipitation.  You’ll notice it is on average a bit wetter in northcentral Wisconsin than other parts of the state.  Perhaps this is partly because of lake effect precipitation that comes down off Lake Superior when cold north winds blow in.

The next chart shows the top 20 driest autumns in the period from 1895 2007 in terms on number of dry autumns per decade.  It appears the three driest periods were in the 1940s, 1950s, and mid 1990s into the 2000s.

Finally examine the top 20 wet autumns in the period from 1895 2007 in terms on number of dry autumns per decade.  The mid 1970s to mid 1980s were bar far the most frequently wet with 5 of the top 20 wet autumns occurring in that stretch.

While we can’t know for sure how autumn 2011 will rank, but it still looks like the first part of meteorological Autumn (September) will turn out overall warm and dry in Wisconsin.  Don’t let the mini-cool spell we’ve just been in fool you.  There is lots of shorts and t-shirts weather ahead as sunshine and highs approaching 80 are expected later this week.   We don’t see any prolonged rain events right through the second full week of the month.  Make the most of it!

Posted under Ag Weather, Fall, Seasonal Items

This past weekend was just what I needed on my hobby farm.  I needed a warm and dry spell to make bedding for my flock of 150 chickens.  I had cut down some long grass on my property and nearby areas last Thursday.   As the old saying goes, “make hay while the sun is shining”.  Four days in a row of sunny and toasty weather dried that cut grass into a fluffy string of bedding for me.

I feel like I’ve gone full circle back to the roots of say my grandparents 80 years ago.  They didn’t have the fancy high tech equipment of modern farming.  There was a lot of manual labor involved.  It was real hands on, getting dirt and dust in your hair type of farming.  Now, don’t get me wrong, modern farming certainly is a good thing in many ways.  I don’t know how we would feed 6 plus billion people in the world without it.  But there is something really neat about tending a small plot of land, coaxing it to be productive, then using the yield in a variety of ways.  It’s a cool concept not having to ship inputs in from long distances and rely on equipment made hundreds or thousands miles away.

This old fashioned approach I’ve been taking on my hobby farm has it’s downsides to be sure.  Just ask my wife and children.  It is not comfortable working out in the hot early July sun for 4 or 5 hours getting sweaty and dusty.  I can’t tell you how many gallons of water and juice we drank during our hay making weekend!  We were smart and took frequent breaks, found shade to sit in, and even had some misting bottles to cool us down.  Still we had blisters, sore muscles, tired back and legs, and very dirty clothes by the time we were done. 

Since I don’t even own a side rake to pull behind a tractor, we raked the cut grass up with your typical garden rake.  After the grass was sufficiently dry, we then scraped it up with pitch forks, and threw it in a trailer and truck.  Then we hauled it to our shed where we had to unload it with forks.  What seemed impossible when we first started, gradually became possible after seeing each load gradually pile up in our shed.   

Even though it was hard work, it offered some really fun moments.  I shared some hardy giggles with my kids as we rode on top of the trailer of hay back to the shed.  We sang some goofy country songs and enjoyed our time very much.  My kids also enjoyed climbing and jumping on the mountain of hay in our shed.

From a meteorological perspective, hay making involves watching when the dew evaporates off the grass in the morning.  You don’t want to rake up the hay before that.  It seemed to disappear around 10:00 a.m. or so this weekend.  You notice how once the breeze picks up in the morning, the drying really increases.  Finally, I noticed how when the ground is really dry, it radiates the sun’s heat back up to you like a brick furnace.   I could literally feel the warmth climb up my body from the ground.

So, this hay making weekend brought back many memories for me of my childhood days on my parents’ farm.  I hope my children take from this experience that something doesn’t need to be easy or expensive to be  enjoyable and worthwhile.  And we’ll have the satisfaction of putting the nice green, fluffy, and aromatic bedding into the chicken house all year long!

Posted under Ag Weather, Nature

The heat is on! Well, not quite yet, but soon. It looks like temps will rise into the 90s on Friday and with the dewpoint hitting 70 degrees, the heat index will be between 100 and 110. Because of this, the National Weather Service has issued a HEAT ADVISORY for noon to 8pm Friday, for the entire viewing area except Iron, Ashland, Oneida, Vilas, Forest, and Florence counties. It will still be quite hot in the far north but the heat index should remain below 100. The good news is that the heat and humidity will go down for the weekend. It will still be a warm Holiday weekend, just not oppressive.

Remember how to stay safe in the heat. Don’t over-exert yourself. Drink plenty of water. Stay in the shade or in an air conditioned building.

Will it be warm enough to break record high temps in the area on Friday? I doubt it. I am forecasting a high temperature of 94 in Wausau and the record is 98 which was set back in 1910. With enough sunshine we might be able to tie the record but getting any higher looks unlikely. One reason why higher temperatures are not too likely is that we recently had some significant rainfall (last week counts as recent). The soil might be getting slightly dry after 6 days of very little precipitation but there is enough moisture in the soil to fuel quite a bit of evapotranspiration. Evapotranspiration is the process by which plants take water from the earth and evaporate it into the air. Evaporating water creates cooler temps. Crops, trees, and vegetation is now growing vigorously in the Midwest and the cooling trend from evapotranspiration will likely keep us from record high territory. If we hadn’t received 3 inches of rain last week, high temps would most likely rise up to around 100 (on Friday).

Besides cooling the air down, recent research has once again confirmed that evapotranspiration enhances precipitation frequency in much of the U.S. Previous research had shown that precipitation amounts were enhanced in eastern Colorado due to evapotranspiration. Some of our most humid days during mid and late Summer are not due solely to moisture arriving all the way from the Gulf of Mexico, but rather from all of the crops growing in the Midwest. It is an interesting process that a lot of people are not aware of, yet it exerts a powerful effect on our weather during the growing season. 

More importantly, if we hadn’t received the soaking rain last week, the US Drought Monitor might be showing some abnormally dry conditions over Wisconsin. As is, Wisconsin is still 100% drought free. If we don’t see much rain over the weekend (which will likely be the case), then we might see some drought creep into the Wisconsin Drought Monitor next week.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Ag Weather, Drought, Heat, Records, Summer

We continue to get new information about Sunday’s tornado outbreak and I am pleased to share it with you here. The NWS of Green Bay has issued a report on the tornadoes that happened in northeast and central Wisconsin. They have been very busy so it is probably not complete. Based on past reports, I suspect they will eventually add a few more pictures and radar images that explain the situation.

Also, we finally have some video of the tornado damage in Forest county (courtesy of WBAY in Green Bay). The NWS of Marquette surveyed the area and I suspect they will have some pictures to share soon. If we don’t see any thing in the next couple of days then I will contact them and ask about it. It would be interesting to see and ariel shot of the forest in that area because the tornado was on the ground for over 10 miles and had a damage path up to 600 yards wide.

________________________

A few weeks ago I gave a presenation about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) to a community group here in Wausau. I presented some history of the climate and a history of apocolyptic predictions about human influence on the planet. As you know, the end of human society as we know it is predicted every few years. Each time it is a different method of destruction and this time around the leading candidate is AGW. It is not that AGW does not have the potential to create significant problems in the future, just that some people take it to the extreme. If you read the blog, you know that some forecasters think that the human population will be less than a billion by 2100 and/or that the entire biosphere will be destroyed, and/or a runaway greenhouse effect is going to make the earth more like Venus - real quick like.

I mentioned that despite the recent and ongoing “great recession” in the country, technological progress continues. This progress helps us live more efficiently year after year. One fellow at the presentation was not so sure that we would escape calamity this time. He was particularly concerned about the increasing acidity of the oceans and depletion of resources. Looking at the human landscape you might wonder how are we going to feed all these people without more greatly affecting the oceans or the land? I wonder about this also and thus I was interested to read this story just yesterday. It is about growing plants in “artificial” environments. Just when you thought modern agriculture could not get any more efficient or productive, along comes LED lighting. Amazingly these Dutch researchers grow plants without sunlight, only red and blue light from LEDs. They also keep the temperature constant and turn the lights on-and-off to simulate night and day. They also use much less water than normal “outdoor” or greenhouse agriculture. The plants produce greater amounts of produce in shorter amounts of time. Why? Interestingly, plants do not need the full spectrum of visible light that comes from the sun in order to grow – only red and blue. Outdoor plants waste energy protecting themselves from the harsher rays of the sun and thus grow more slowly. The only problem with these methods so far is the high cost of the LED lighting. I also wonder about the taste of the veggies. It would seem to me that something growing outside in the soil would pick up an essential flavor – call it earthiness – that might not be replicated indoors.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Ag Weather, AGW, Climate Change, Ecology, Tornadoes

We traveled to southeast Wisconsin this past weekend, near Watertown to visit my wife’s family.  I was surprised by how much further ahead they are in terms of spring weather.  They missed the big snowstorms of March and had rain instead.  Thus they have had bare ground for 3 weeks already.  So the grass is starting to get a bit green in spots, flowers like tulips are about 9 inches high and ready to open and there is no ice on the lakes or rivers I saw.  A few farmers even had some oats planted on higher ground fields where it had dried out enough.

Well anyway, my in-laws are crop farmers.  They grow primarily corn and soybeans.  One of the topics that came up was how high the price of corn and other grains has gotten (well over $6.00 a bushel for corn).   Apparently supplies are running lower than expected.  The belief is that heavy demand from booming countries like China and other climbing nations is driving the price hike.  As countries become wealthier they tend to eat different and want more meat for example.  Raising cattle and hogs on a large scale takes a lot of corn and grain typically.   So many farmers are rushing to try to rent land wherever they can find it with the hopes that they can have a big return should the crop prices stay high.

Not to throw a monkey wrench into all of this, but I told my in-laws that spring planting conditions may not be very favorable in Wisconsin and much of the Corn Belt Region.  It looks like we will be in a relatively wet, stormy, and at times cooler than normal pattern.  How long this lingers is the kicker.  If it lets up by the end of April it’s not just too bad.  But it stays wet well into May it could really delay the planting season since farmers can’t plant in the mud.  The later corn for example is planted, generally the lower yields that result.  Corn is a crop that needs to soak up as much sunshine and heat as possible for maximum potential.  Of course there are other factors throughout the growing season like rainfall, insects, and disease that also control ultimate yield.

I just wonder if prices will continue to rise, seeing that a good chunk of the Corn Belt will likely have delayed planting.  What a catch-22 situation.  Farming is about as risky as weather forecasting!

Posted under Ag Weather, forecast, Seasonal Items, Spring