There are 2 main ways floating ice sheets melt, from warm air above and from warm ocean currents attacking the underside of the sheets.  Results of a recent study using NASA’s Ice, Cloud, & Land Elevation Satellite indicate the warm ocean current process has been the main culprit in recent years. 

A group of international scientists conducted the study from 2003 to 2008 using the special NASA satellite with lasar altimetry and specialized computer models to process melt and runoff data.   It showed 20 of 54 ice shelves in Antarctica showed substantial melting from below due to warm water currents eating into them.  Many of these are on the west side of Antarctica. 

This new satellite altimetry technology, combined with information from aircraft,  satellite radar, and other projects will give researchers the best view yet of how the ice and oceans of the world are changing.  Numerous climate models predict that sea level could rise anywhere from 6 to 18″ on average worldwide in the next 50 years.  Some project an even more extreme rise.

You can read the full article here.   http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/currents-ice-loss.html

Posted under AGW, Arctic climate, Climate Change, World Weather

Aside from a handful of short cold snaps and brief bouts of a few inches of snow at a time, this winter has proven to be fairly tame.  Especially when compared with last year’s winter that provided much of the United States with considerable snowfall. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has just released two images showing just how striking the difference has been in terms of snow depth.  In the image below, you’re looking at the continental United States.  Areas shaded in a taupe-peach color indicate areas that are dealing with nearly 40 less inches of snow compared to the winter of 2010-2011.  Areas in the blue color are places with nearly 40 more inches of snow. 

The top image illustrates the comparison in December, the lower in early February. 

What a difference!  We can see it has been a unique winter anecdotally, but when you look at the numbers and see how widespread the difference has been, it really is quite striking! 

To see the entire article from NOAA, follow this link: http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/image/2012/fierce-2010-2011-winter-dwarfs-this-seasons-snowfall

Image from NOAA.

Posted under Arctic climate, Environment, forecast, Nature, new media, Science, Seasonal Items, Snow Totals, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

As you know, one of my main criticisms of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory is that there is not enough thought with respect to the dynamic and self-limiting nature of fossil fuel energy usage and no consideration of technological progress. New clean energy and technology is not fait accompli but it should at least be considered.

Another smaller quibble revolves around the certainty with which many leading advocates for emissions reductions and climate treaties speak. Even though it is often said that climate science is feindishly complex, and it is known that early models were very coarse and sometimes innaccurate, you often hear how the oceans WILL rise, the temperature WILL warm, the storms WILL get worse, the environment WILL collapse, and the changes ARE IRREVERSIBLE.

While these 100% iron-clad statements continue, the science of the matter continues to throw a few curve balls and unearth previously unknown actors in the climate system. For instance, it was recently found that evaporation of water from plants has the potential to slightly cool the planet. It is well known that plants can cool a small area through evaporation because evaporating water takes energy. Our bodies even use this process (evaporation through sweating) to keep cool. What was not known as well in the past is the potential for evapotranspiration (from plants) to form low clouds which reflect the sun’s energy back into space. This would cause a slight cooling effect. If moisture and precipitation continue to increase in the near future, then the slight cooling effect could continue and should be considered in future projections.

Examples of Alkenes

Another research effort has found that molecules called biradicals can cool the atmosphere. These molecules form in the atmosphere when ozone reacts with other molecules comprised of carbon and hydrogen. What forms is a type of aerosol that reflects the sun’s radiation back into space. It is unknown how much cooling effect this natural and sometimes unnatural (where there is smog/ozone in cities) molecular process has on the atmosphere.

As far as modeling the future climate, there are still some holes that need to be plugged in order to improve the accuracy. A recent paper from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory pointed out some room for improvement in predicting arctic sea-ice loss. Arctic clouds play a big part in how much sea-ice melts every Summer and current models do not completely capture the amount of arctic cloud-cover or the amount of radiation they reflect. Knowing the atmosphere-ice-ocean feedback processes in greater detail should improve future climate forecasts.

Boreal Forest

Amazing as it might seem, it is also still not known whether forests contribute to AGW or help mediate it. On the surface you would think that trees would take more carbon out of the atmosphere, they are after all “made” out of carbon (and other elements, of course). Due to complex feedbacks of growth and decay, tropical forests might have a much different effect on atmospheric carbon dioxide that boreal (far north) forests. Also, northern forests might not be absorbing as much carbon as previously thought, especially in areas where warmer weather has also meant drier weather, such as western Canada.

None of this means that climate science is complete bunk. The climate models are based on well known chemical and physical processes. Certain molecules such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, and methane are well known to have an effect on temperature and radiation transfer. Humans most likely have an effect on the long term climate. However, there is not 100% certainty of environmental Armageddon. Our certainty does increase every year as more data becomes available but the climate system is dynamic and heretofore unknown triggers could tip temperatures in different directions. Many climate scientists think the variation in the sun’s energy output does not have an effect on our current climate, but it is unknown whether tiny changes in solar output could be amplified within the earth’s climate system to produce unexpected results.

In addition, future technological progress will likely assist us in reducing our impact on the environment and atmosphere. There will not be “business as usual” fossil fuel usage all the way through 2100. Be sure to keep your eye open for more efficient devices, housing, and vehicles. You can save money and lessen pollution at the same time.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Arctic climate, Climate Change, Technology

Yesterday I profiled a solar power company that is furthering progress in alternative energy as solar still looks to be one of the better options for cleaner energy production in the near future. What about biofuel? Has anything changed in the new year?

There are no doubt some great advances in chemistry and biology that are making the production of liquid hydrocarbons (like ethanol or biodiesel) more efficient and viable. Joule Unlimited has created a new process that uses genetically engineered bacteria to convert carbon dioxide and sunlight into fuel. Their process is potentially much better than current cellulosic ethanol schemes if they can scale it up. Another company, Virent, based in Madison Wisconsin, is supplementing their biofuel process with natural gas in order to more easily make the liquid hydrocarbon fuels that we use in present day transportation.

Joule Unlimited Biofuel "Reactors"

Both of these companies are trail-blazers with truly impressive science and engineering feats under their belt, but the question remains, is biofuel the best way forward to reduce pollution and theoretical future climate warming. I still say no. In the case of Joule Unlimited, why use sunlight, bacteria, and CO2 to create a liquid fuel when you could just use solar panels to convert light into electricity. It would seem to be a simpler choice and solar-electric “fueled” EVs are tremendously cleaner than biofuel vehicles. A recent study has shown that electric fleet vehicles already are at a point where they make financial sense for companies operating in big cities. It might be more efficient/cheaper to make the biofuel for the time being but solar prices continue to decline every year.

In the case of Virent, you know how much I love to promote Wisconsin-based companies, but I have to wonder, why not just use natural gas as a fuel instead of using nat gas and biomass to create liquid hydrocarbons. Biofuel’s most likely purpose will be as a bridge fuel from now through the next few years when electric cars are not yet mainstream, practical for the masses, and affordable all the while fossil fuel (mainly oil) supplies become more scarce. Another possible bridge fuel is natural gas. It would be much simpler and cheaper. There is already a small nat gas infrastructure in the U.S. and in many other countries as well. The risks of exploiting natural gas reserves are quite low. The danger of frakquakes has mostly been overblown. Natural gas has been gaining political traction the U.S. but I would rather see the free market decide whether it makes greater sense for transportation. As we have seen lately, government “support” has not turned out so well.

Of course we will still need a lot of hydrocarbons for materials/plastic production and this is where many new biofuel processes will likely find their home. Virent is already making product for Coca Cola to use in their plastic bottles.

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An update on the Vostok drilling operation by the Russians in Antarctica: At least one news agency in Russia reported on February 5th  (and another article) that the scientists had indeed reached the surface of the lake. It is only one report, and I have not heard anything more official since. In any case, they will probably not be able to explore the lake or return samples to the surface until next Summer in Antarctica (our late Fall and Winter of 2012).

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Arctic climate, Pollution

In yesterday’s blog post I delved into the topic of less ice in the arctic and how it has changed through the centuries including during the Little Ice Age and other periods. Recent research has suggested that plants developing on land might have caused the very old ice ages hundreds of millions of years ago and that increased volcanism could have trigger the Little Ice Age, although many people suspect the Maunder Minimum of solar activity was the key factor in maintaining the Little Ice Age.

With the prospect of another solar minimum right around corner you know there are sure to be some fireworks in AGW discussions. Most scientists expect that solar activity will be lower than normal for the next few decades. This has led to speculation that our recent warmer climate might turn colder again. Most mainstream scientists think that “greenhouse gases” will overwhelm any effect from the sun. The Daily Mail (not the most scientific of sources) published this article recently taking a look at both sides of the issue.

Historical Sunspot Trends

Just in case the notion that the sun has a noticeable effect on the climate permeated to culture too much, some climatologists and media outlets were quick to point out that even if the sun’s output did decrease, it would only drop the earth’s temperature by a couple tenths of a degree in the next few decades. Alternatively, AGW projections estimate the earth could warm by 2 to 4 degrees. Gizmodo says we are NOT in for another little ice age, only a less extreme heat wave (if solar output goes down). James Hansen made sure to point out that recently, the earth has been absorbing more energy than it is emitting back into space, so it is likely that the climate will continue to warm.

Even though we could end up with increasing global temperatures, that does not mean that we would be without harsh winter’s. Past research has suggested and recent research has bolstered the premise that Europe could end up with more harsh winters because of less ice in the arctic.

Ice on the Black Sea

Less ice in the arctic changes the wind patterns and allows for more moisture in the air, thus the possibility of more snow and cold in parts of Europe. That would seem to be the case this year as many areas of central and eastern Europe are currently in the grip of an extreme cold wave. Many new monthly record lows have been set in Bulgaria and the Black sea is partially frozen. Just to give you an idea of how significant this cold wave is, the Black Sea has only completely frozen over 3 different times in modern recorded history.

Digesting the news and theories over the last couple of days, I could definitely see how a new little, or major, ice age could form. If increased volcanism occurred at the same time of a solar minimum while the world’s oceans are warmer than normal, this could lead to a lot more snow on land. The key point here is that the earths oceans have been warming up and they will not divest that warmth very easily (water has a high thermal stability). If the atmosphere cools down rapidly due to (volcanism and/or low solar activity) while the oceans stay warm, it could lead to greater temperature contrasts across the globe and more moisture in the air, both of which could drive stronger storms and more harsh wintry weather. While this is a possibility, odds are that we will continue to see some warming in the near future.

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Just one quick follow-up on a story I have been reporting on for a few years now: the Russians are very close to breaking into Vostok lake in Antarctica. This is a lake that is buried under at least 2 miles of ice and has not seen sunlight in over 100,000 years. Some scientists think that weird life forms might exist under the ice and are concerned that the Russian drilling experiment might contaminate the lake with pollutants of bacteria from the surface. Read more here.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Arctic climate, Climate Change, Oceans, Records, Weather History

A rather depressing and apocalypse-themed photo exhibition has hit the art circuit recently - called the “Last Days of The Arctic”.  This Youtube video showing some of the great photography is put to haunting music which makes it seem even more like the end of the world. And, it definitely is a serious challenge for the people and animals that live around the arctic. Less sea ice, if the trend continues in the future, will require more adaptation and some hardship will result. But remember the earth does change – on its own for the most part. Sometimes when discussing anthropogenic global warming (AGW), I get the sense that some people expect the climate and the biosphere to remain exactly like it was earlier in their lifetime – that the global temperature will always remain “around average”, whatever that temperature is deemed to be.

Even outside the theoretical effects that human beings might be having on the atmosphere, the earth and atmosphere is in a constant state of change. The Sahara desert was once covered by large lakes. The arctic has had much more ice as recent as a few hundred years ago during the Little Ice Age. Before that, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the arctic was mostly ice free a few times during interglacial periods. During these wide swings in ice cover and temperature, no doubt there was some angst about the changing climate. There was most likely some hardship before people and animals were able to adapt to the changing conditions. This is not to say that possible future AGW is OK (we should try to reduce our negative environmental impacts as much as feasible), just that we should remember that things change.  Spending too much time reminiscing about what was, leaves less time to prepare for what will be.

Speaking of what was, I mentioned the Little Ice Age a bit earlier and there is some new research suggesting that increased volcanism during the 1275 to 1300 period might have triggered it, or at least helped it along. If you are familiar with the Little Ice Age, you know that a leading theory is that reduced solar energy (known as the Maunder Minimum). This solar theory is not conclusive but one cannot help but notice the trend in temps and solar activity seemed to go hand-in-hand, especially during the coldest point of the Little Ice Age. However, one must not rule out volcanic activity. It is well known that large volcanic eruptions (like Pinatubo and Krakatoa) can cool the planet by a degree or two for a couple of years after the eruption. What is theorized in this latest study is that successive large volcanic eruptions cooled the planet for a couple of decades and this created a positive feedback loop of colder temps leading to more sea ice formation. The increased sea ice then reflected more of the sun’s energy into space leading to cooler temps. This is an interesting theory, and no doubt there was some cooling due to volcanic eruptions, however, I would expect that the volcanism would show up a bit more dramatically in the re-constructed temperature graphs from around the late 1200s into the early 1300s. Perhaps the granularity of the data obscures the temperature changes a bit, but if volcanism was the main trigger for the Little Ice Age, then there should be some evidence in the temperature record during that time.

On the subject of ice ages, there is a recent theory that the periodic ice ages beginning around 450 million years ago were caused by the arrival of plants on the earth’s surface. The theory is that early plants (resembling mosses) covered land masses and led to chemical weathering of the rocks. The minerals released from this process ended up turning into carbonate materials, with the carbon coming from the atmosphere. The minerals might have also fertilized the oceans as well, leading to more growth of plant life. Once free carbon dioxide was now being bound up in the process of life and this could have led to a decrease in the global temperature seen around that period. I say could have, because there are a lot of assumptions built into the theory. The atmosphere and climate are so complex that even today it is hard to predict how they will evolve together. 450 million years ago the land masses were different, the earth’s orbit and tilt were different, the magnetic poles we different. It all adds up to a difficult job of deciphering temperature changes.

It is not all that difficult to decipher what happened last month because we keep track of the daily conditions right here at StormTrack9! The month of January ended up 6 degrees above normal. It was about the same amount above normal as the month of December. I can’t remember the last time we had to months in a row when temps were that far above normal….whoops, nope….I do remember. It was February and March of 2000. February of that year was 9 degrees above normal and March was 11 degrees above normal.

January of 2012 did not feel a whole lot like winter with 6 different days rising above 40 degrees. This warmth included 2 days with record highs. In Wausau, we had a record high of 47 on the 10th and 45 on the 11th. The best part about the month, in my opinion, is that precipitation was a little above normal. It is nice to start out the year on an above normal trend. Besides being above normal, there were no other odd patterns in the numbers. Here are the final January stats for Wausau:

Average High Temp: 29.3  (normal: 23.1)

Average Low Temp: 12.0  (normal: 6.0)

Precipitation: 1.04 inches  (normal: 1.02 inches)

Snowfall: 12.3 inches  (normal: 13.5 inches)

Highest Temperature: 47 on January 10th

Lowest Temperature: -14 on January 20th

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Arctic climate, Climate Change, Geology, Monthly Recap, Weather History

I have often commented on the often seemingly contradictory predictions revolving around anthropogenic global warming (AGW). On the surface, these can seem a bit humorous. We have seen forecast of more hurricanes and less hurricanes, warmer weather and colder weather, more drought as well as more floods. It would seem as if the prognosticators are trying to cover all the bases, so that no matter what happens, it can be blamed on AGW.

One of the more interesting contradictions is the fact that many areas of the globe are experiencing harsher winters (we have had our share during the 3 years prior to this Winter), even though most data indicates the average temperature of the globe is very slowly rising. The one thing to remember is that even if there is a harsh (cold and snowy) Winter, the rest of the year might end up enough above normal that when the final annual average is calculated, the temperature could still end up above normal.

Snowmageddon in Washington DC 2010

A recent study which focused on the eastern U.S., southern Canada, and northern Eurasia, found that the harsh Winters were linked to warmer Summers. What?! The nascent theory is that warmer Summers lead to warmer water temps, which lead to more moisture in the air, which leads to more snow in the Winter, which leads to colder temps. The aggregate snow cover has a big impact on temps over large geographical regions. During Winter when the entire Midwest is covered in snow, temps will not warm up much even when warm winds blow into the area. Of course, the snow also reflects a lot of sunlight away from the ground preventing much warming. Snow-less ground absorbs a lot more sunlight and warms up.

This got me to wondering about positive feedback loops. During the course of studying many research results throughout the years, the “positive feedback loop” is often mentioned in climate forecasts. One example: less ice in the arctic leads to more warming in the ocean, which leads to less ice, which leads to more warming, ad infinitum (or so it seems). Almost every feedback loop that has been proposed is theorized to enhance AGW (in what seems like classic group-think). Hardly anyone has suggested feedback loops that work against AGW, even though the atmosphere is non-linear and has seen historical extremes at both the cold and warm end of the spectrum.

Cryosphere as of January 15th

Something eventually tips the balance of temps toward colder weather as evidenced by the glacial periods. Could increased snowfall tip the scales and counteract some of the warming of recent decades? It certainly does in the Winter as found by the recent study. But what would it take to affect temps on a global scale during other seasons of the year? A humongous amount of snow. If the Winter snow was deep enough in certain areas of the globe, it would last longer into the Spring (or even Summer in far northern latitudes). If the cryosphere (ice and snow covered areas of the globe) increased because of very heavy snowfall in the Winter, it could lead to a feedback loop that eventually creates a cooling trend. I don’t know how much snow we are talking about here, but it is part of the process that drove the past ice ages. Check the current state of the cryospere here.

For more on the reasons for past ice ages check out this recent report adding to the evidence that changes in the earth’s orbit and tilt drove the cycles between glacial and interglacial periods.

Have a pleasant Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Arctic climate, Climate Change, Oceans, Winter Weather

The plane used by NOAA to study hurricanes, and now winter storms. Image from NOAA.

A Gulfstream twin-engine turbo jet used to study hurricanes will be put to work to help forecast winter storms this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  

In an article published Jan. 12^th, NOAA says the jet will be flown around the North Pacific Ocean in January and February.  It will deploy sensors to “collect information where the jet stream and moisture from the ocean interact and breed potentially powerful winter storms that impact North America several days later.”

On board the aircraft meteorologists will be looking at a host of atmospheric conditions.  Included in their laundry list are wind, pressure, temperature and humidity levels.

In the article, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Capt. Barry Choy says that comparing the information gathered with the sensors with satellite imagery “significantly enhance[s] four-to-seven day winter weather forecasts.” 

NOAA uses the plane to study hurricanes during the late summer and fall seasons.  Its selected flight path will be to the east and west of Hawa’ii where the plane is currently stationed and as far north as Alaska. 

To read the article in its entirety and to see photos, log on to: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120111_g4hawaii.html

Posted under Arctic climate, Environment, forecast, Hurricanes, International Weather, Nature, new media, Oceans, Science, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Storms, Weather and Health, Weather History, Weather NEws, World Weather

Posted under Arctic climate, Climate Change, Environment, International Weather, new media, Science, Space, World Weather

In yesterday’s blog I mentioned the race to discover what life might exist in Antarctic lakes trapped for millions of years under miles of ice. For those wanting a few more details, lo and behold, here is a good article today in Newscientist about the 2 expeditions I mentioned yesterday plus a third. I have been following this story for years and it is exciting to see that later this year we will finally find out if life can exist in these environments.

Finding out whether life does exist or ever existed on the planet Mars is a bit tougher, but this is a story I have been following as well. The 2 Mars rovers Opportunity and Spirit provided some tantalizing clues but nothing definitive. Amazingly, the Opportunity rover is still plugging away and NASA has released a new video of it’s journey over the last three years. Another rover will be headed to Mars on – the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL – nicknamed Curiosity). Disappointingly, it is not constructed to look for direct evidence of life, only to analyze the chemistry of Mars in greater detail to further bolster the case that the red planet could have supported life. It has suffered cost over-runs but I seriously doubt it would get the budget axe at such a late stage. The best part about the MSL is that it will have high definition imaging capability.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Arctic climate, Space