To being today, I would like to take a trip back to last Friday when I mentioned the new monthly outlooks released by the CPC. The outlook maps indicate EC for our area or “equal chances”. I normally explain this as the monthly forecast having an equal chance of being above normal or below normal with regards to temperature (and precipitation). This gives you a good idea of what we are looking at in the maps, but there is a different, subtle, and yet important statistical meaning to the EC on those maps. A climate expert from the NWS in La Crosse pointed out the difference in the comment section of the blog.

What the CPC does is look at the last 3 decades and divides the years up into the 10 warmest, the 10 coolest, and the 10 that lie in between. After the long range forecast is complete, they compare the result to those 3 categories. The EC means that there is an equal chance that the month in question (or 3-month period) could fall into on of those three categories (warmest, coolest, or in between). Thanks to Mr. Boyne for pointing that out. I am looking for a CPC link that explains the statistical formulation of the long range outlooks, as I know I have read it before, but I haven’t come up with anything yet. I’ll share it when I find it – for all you climate buffs.

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Another topic that needs repeating is the odd frequency of fireballs falling from space during the Spring. We had one streak through the sky a couple of weeks ago. One has also been seen in New Zealand and Texas in the past month, and now one of the more dramatic events might have occurred this past weekend in Nevada and California. I say might because as of now, there is no video or picture of the event even though hundreds of thousands of people claimed to have heard the booming noise throughout the Sierra Nevada mountain range on both the California and Nevada side. There are so many security cameras, cell phone cameras, wildlife cameras, etc., that one would think there would be some evidence that turns up sooner or later, but none so far. For all the conspiracy theorists out there, no doubt this brings up thoughts of military ”tests” out in the Nevada Desert. Has anyone read or seen any of the more “wilder” speculation? Nothing has crossed my “radar screen”.

On the topic of things coming from and going to space, one topic I follow quite closely is private space exploration.

Asteroid Mine, Artists Depiction

The biggest news coming out of this arena in recent days is that several corporate and entertainment moguls are planning a joint economic venture in space. The early buzz is that they are proposing to mine and build outposts on asteroids. Some say it is a quixotic (foolish) quest. I wish them all the luck and success in the world. I am thrilled that a private venture is taking this risk (and they should reap the rewards). It is better than the government spending billions of dollars of taxpayer money per year on such an effort.

Besides the possibility of fame and riches, these space entrepreneurs are performing another function for the human species as a whole. They are providing a method of survival. I have mentioned before a few times that anthropogenic global warming might turn out to be a significant problem in a few decades, there are much greater existential risks that could engulf this planet tomorrow or within a matter of years. In order to avoid extinction, it would be best if we were not a one planet species. That is the reason another entrepreneur – Elon Musk – founded SpaceX, to make sure we have the possibility of surviving a planet-wide catastrophe.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under CPC Outlook, Space

I asked a couple of days ago about June snow in Wisconsin and I am surprised no one had a story to share. Ray did bring up some old winter folklore which I have heard as well – that the “snow drifts were up to the top of the telephone poles” – and “every winter it got down to 40 below”. These stories do have a basis of truth but are also a bit exaggerated. Colder winter-time temps were a reality in the latter part of the 1800s and the first half of the 1900s, but we did not have 40 below every winter. In fact, the temperature has only officially reached -40 in Wausau on 3 different occasions, once in 1899, once in 1948, and once in 1951. Now, if you were living around the area in the late 1940s through the 1950s, it probably seemed like the temperature got that cold every winter, but it didn’t. We tend to remember the most extreme and emotional things from our past and forget the less exciting stuff. So there were more occasions with bitter cold in the past, but it did not occur every year.

As far as the blizzards go, there were some doozies in the past, but again, the snow was not up to the telephone poles every winter. At least with a couple of the past snowstorms we do have some photographic evidence of the events. At the historical society of Marathon county they have some pictures of drifts as high as railroad cars. As for the telephone poles, we should remember that the poles were a bit shorter back in the day.

Overall, I am sure most people are happy with the more mild Winters we have experienced in the last 2 or 3 decades. The last time we had -30 in Wausau was in February of 1996. Most winters lately have some stretches of cold weather but in the city it seems we only get down to around -20 or so. Some of that has to do with the urban heat island effect, but some is due to the climate getting a bit warmer as well.

We might not have any stories about snow in June but we have a new story about snow in April. Just last night 1 to 3 inches of the white stuff fell in parts of the area. I measured just over an inch on my car this morning. The snowfall made it look like Granite Peak might be open for business again soon. The slopes were all white this morning – perhaps making people re-think their predictions for the 2012 Snowmelt Contest (with prizes provided by the R-stores of NorthCentral Wisconsin). Not to worry. After the inch or so of snow melts off the slopes today, the patches that remain are quite small. You still have until next Friday (the 27th) to get your entry in. Whenever you feel like entering, the easiest way is to use the entry form here: http://www.waow.com/category/236274/2012-snow-melt-contest Don’t post your prediction here in the blog. I see a couple predictions have come in to the comment section so far and I will enter them into the contest manually (no worries) but it is much better if you use our website form for the contest.

I usually do not make my prediction until the entry period has closed in order to not influence things too much, but I will make a guarantee. The snow will not last until June 24th – the latest snowmelt date we have ever had with the contest. That might not help a whole lot but it is the most you will get out of me for now.

CPC Temp Trend For May

What would help the snow stick around a while longer would be some colder weather – which I know a lot of you are NOT hoping for. The weather will stay colder than normal this weekend but should rise a little above normal (highs in the 60s) for the middle of next week. What about May? Well, the CPC has released the latest monthly outlooks and Wisconsin finds itself in the “equal chances” (or EQ) category, meaning an equal chance of having above or below normal precipitation or temperatures. No major trend is being picked up by the computer models. If you click through the other months in the outlook you will find that it stays that way for temps and precip through the Summer, then a greater chance of above normal temperatures develops for the Fall and into the Winter. So for those of you who might be worried that it is going to be a long, hot, humid, Summer because the temps started out so warm in March, at least the computer models are not picking up on anything like that so far. It doesn’t mean it won’t happen, just that we don’t have any good indications whether temps will skew warmer or cooler this Summer.

Have a nice Friday, Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Snow Totals, Snowmelt 2012, Weather History, Winter Weather

I suppose if you had to guess what the spring might hold for us in Wisconsin, you would say warmer than normal conditions.  That is what the Climate Prediction Center’s updated outlook for April calls for too.  They project most of the eastern two-thirds of the nation to have above normal temperatures.  They pinpoint the greatest likelihood of above normal temperatures around the Southern Plains.  They are predicting an increased chance of cooler than normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

April Temperature Outlook from CPC

As far as precipitation goes,  the Climate Prediction Center indicates that above normal amounts are possible from Michigan south to Tennessee basically.    They think that drier than normal conditions are more likely in places like Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and in a strip from southern Texas over to Florida and South Carolina.  The CPC has Wisconsin in an area of equal chances of below, normal, and above precipitation.  So there is no strong signal either way from the models and ocean-atmospheric patterns.  We normally get around 3″ of moisture in April in our region.

April Precipitation Outlook from CPC

At this time, there is still a weak La Nina pattern ongoing in the tropical Pacific Ocean.  However it is projected to dissipate completely by May.  One thing we’ll have to keep an eye on around Wisconsin with the warmer than normal weather is the possibility of earlier than normal severe thunderstorm outbreaks.  Usually severe weather season doesn’t hit high gear until mid May to early June around here.  That’s normally when the warm, humid air necessary for severe storms and tornadoes makes a more regular appearance to our area as the jet streams migrate northward.  However this year, it appears those conditions will come together about a month early perhaps.

Posted under CPC Outlook, ENSO Update, forecast, Seasonal Items, Spring

The latest long range monthly outlooks have been released by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and if you are hoping for an early Spring you might be in luck. I say might because looking ahead months in advance is still a very in-exact science. The March outlook for Wisconsin indicates a significant chance of above normal temperatures across Wisconsin and most of the Great Lakes region. As a bonus, there is also a greater than normal chance of above normal precipitation. I am always happy if we head into the growing season with some added moisture. It helps everything turn green and start growing vigorously right away.

CPC March Temp Trend

Now just remember, as you are reading this and thinking about a potential mild March, don’t forget that the rest of the month of February is looking rather Winter-like. We have to get through the next couple of weeks before we will see whether or not the CPC forecast is correct. Also remember that above normal precipitation in March could mean either rain or snow. If we end up with a couple of big storms dumping several inches of snow, it might not seem like an early Spring, even if the majority of the days in March are above normal.

CPC March Precip Trend

As far as the longer term goes, the three month average of March-April-May is also predicted to have a chance of above normal temperatures in our part of the country. Otherwise, all other periods in the forecast indicate EQ or “equal chances” of above or below normal temps and precipitation. So basically, after a possibly mild March, the computer models can’t discern any major trends through the Summer.

Now an update on the current Wintry pattern referenced above. Light snow will continue off-and-on for the rest of today and might accumulate an inch or so. On Thursday another storm moving through the upper Midwest has the potential to produce 2 or 3 inches of snow but current charts indicate it might track through southern Wisconsin and not bring a whole lot of snow to Marathon county and further north. The third storm of the week will be developing later Sunday into Monday morning and has the potential to create several inches of snow. It is still too early to say where in the state the heaviest snow will fall.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, forecast

A fairly large chunk of the country as of the February 7th was on the dry side.  NOAA and the USDA reports abnormally dry conditions across the western half of Upper Michigan into the northwest half of Wisconsin.  Minnesota is in rougher shape with much of the state listed as in a moderate to severe drought.  That extends into the far eastern portions of the Dakotas.  Moderate to severe drought is also plaguing the western U.S. from the Great Basin down into the Desert Southwest.  They have not had many snowstorms this winter out there either. 

 Some of the same areas that were at record dry levels last growing season from southern Kansas to much of Texas are still in a severe to extreme drought.  It is also very dry around Florida, Georgia, and right up into the Carolinas.

According to the seasonal drought outlook into the summer, the drought is expected to overall persist in many sections that currently are so dry.  Let’s hope it doesn’t expand across Wisconsin.

Posted under Ag Weather, CPC Outlook, Drought, Natural Disasters

We always try to take a longer look into the future with our discussions here in the blog, often citing other sources of extended forecasts, by following the atmospheric and ocean patterns (like La Nina and El Nino), and by examining long-range computer models. Once every month we take a tour of the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) long range computer outlooks. Every month the computer models are run and they crank out temperature and precipitation trends for the next 12 months into the future. NCEP (of which the CPC is part of) also runs daily forecast that stretch any where from an hour up to 16 days.

CPC February Temp Forecast

If you are a snow-lover hoping for a continuation of our recent more frequent snowfall, there isn’t a lot of hope in the latest CPC outlook. In the short term, there doesn’t appear to be much hope for significant snow through next Wednesday. In the longer term (out to two weeks) your best hope would be for a significant snowstorm to move through during the early part of February. Otherwise the CPC outlooks for the month of February indicates a greater chance of above normal temperatures than below normal temps. It also shows a greater chance of above normal precipitation for far eastern Wisconsin, but the greater chances of heavier precipitation are well off to the east of the state in Indiana and Ohio. 

CPC February Precip Trend

For snowmobilers, it will be key to have some snow in early February if we want to get most of the trails open and in good condition before Spring. Once we get into late February and early March, it is tougher to keep a good base around, even when we have a heavy snowstorm. The sun is much warmer late in the Winter and melts the snow a little faster. I can only remember one Winter in the past two decades when trails – which had been closed all Winter – were opened in early March after a big snowfall.

Perhaps that is the way it will go this Winter – big snow in the Spring.

March-April-May CPC Precip Forecast

I am not sure I would be too happy with another Spring filled with late snowstorms (like last year) but the CPC outlook for the March-April-May period indicates a greater chance of above normal precipitation during this time period. In one respect it would be good because if we do not receive a lot of snow during the Winter, then we could use a little more rain in the Spring to catch up and have a good start to the growing season.

For the rest of the CPC outlook, through the Summer there are no big indications toward either hot/cold or wet/dry trends. The next trend that shows up for our area is above normal temps in the Fall.

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Now a follow-up on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). I have been monitoring the progress of the telescope because it promises to deliver better images and data than even the Hubble telescope. Unfortunately, it has hit cost over-runs and was on the chopping block for a while. The latest NASA budget does include money for the JWST, but some observers still think the project might be cancelled. The projected cost of the telescope has now risen to 8.8 billion. With a price tag like that, I can see why politicians might want to cancel it. It would be a shame if it was cancelled, because it would bring some great new discoveries to astronomy, but when you are talking about billions of dollars in today’s era of insolvent government’s, projects such as these get left behind. It would be a shame of JWST was cancelled because it is already half built. It would be similar to the super-collider that was half built in Texas before being cancelled. What a waste of money! Of course, 8.8 billion dollars seems a little unreasonable as well. I know it is a very large and complicated telescope but 8.8 billion dollars!? Where does all the money go? Are they paying the engineers $200 an hour or something? Are they paying $10,000 per screw?

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In another follow-up of a developing story I have been following, a U.S. led investigation has found that some Chinese solar power manufacturers are selling solar panels below cost. Given that this finding was released by one side in a developing trade war, I would be cautious of the claim. As I have mentioned before, with the growth of international trade and government involvement in alternative energy across the globe, pinning blame on one country and thier subsidies would seem to be a fool’s errand, like shooting yourself in the foot. Maye there is some very egregious unfair support that the Chinese provide  their solar companies, but we shouldn’t forget that subsidies exist for different industries in every country of the world.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, CPC Outlook, Space

Check Tony’s blog post from yesterday to see the January outlook from the CPC. I am not too surprised by the greater chance of above normal temps for January even though last month I stuck to my forecast of a little colder than normal for the Winter with a little above normal snowfall. I based this on La Nina persisting at least through February.

So far, temps have been well above normal for December and snowfall has been below normal. If my Winter forecast is going to verify then we would have to end up with some fairly significant periods of bitter cold in January and February as well as a few large snowstorms. The CPC 3-month outlook for January-February-March does indicate a greater chance of above normal precipitation but not for colder temps. This is not good news for snow-lovers, but you never know. It is looking quite likely that conditions will remain mild and mainly dry through the end of the year and maybe even during the first week of January.

Jan-Feb-Mar CPC precip. Outlook

If the pattern is going to turn, it will probably happen around mid January at the earliest. In any case, it looks like a fairly short Winter (hopefully I don’t jinx us). I suspect that if we do get some significant snow and cold, it will be for a month or perhaps a month and a half. We are almost through December - which is a third of meteorological Winter.

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On the alternative energy front, a few blog posts ago, I revealed how I was saddened that Google will not be pursuing solar power research into the future. They are trying to focus on their core projects a bit more. This does not mean they will NOT be using or financially supporting other solar projects as we find out here in their blog. They are spending 94 million dollars for the creation of solar panels farms around Sacramento California. Hooray for Google! Now I am wondering when Apple (and their over 80 billion dollar cash-hoard) will start to support projects like this. Also, if the government is going to spend money on “green” energy, they should follow Google’s example (building solar power capacity) instead of sending money to failing companies (like Solyndra and Range Fuels).

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, CPC Outlook

The new outlook is in from the Climate Prediction Center for January.  For Wisconsin it continues the trend of December, warmer than normal temperatures.   In fact they are predicting much of the eastern half of the nation to have above normal temperatures in January with the highest departures from normal in the southern Mississippi Valley.  It is supposed to be colder than normal in Alaska and the western part of the lower 48.

Over the past month, the North Atlantic Oscillation has been in its positive phase which keeps a strong west to east flow across Canada, the northern U.S and into the North Atlantic Ocean.  This prohibits arctic air from spilling down into the U.S. with any kind of frequency or strength.  The North Atlantic Oscillation will likely stay positive for several weeks yet.  This coupled with a lack of deep snow cover in the central and eastern U.S. is likely the basis for the mild January. 

As far as precipitation goes the Climate Prediction Center indicates drier than normal conditions in the far southern tier of the country with wetter than normal conditions from North Dakota west to the Pacific Northwest and also above normal amounts from around Tennessee up through the Great Lakes.  Wisconsin is listed as slightly above normal.  I’m not really in complete agreement with this.  Based on what I see in some of our computer models that look out a few weeks, there is no sign that the strong southern storm track will start curving up into Wisconsin.  Likewise there is no strong signal that we will have a whole bunch of clipper type lows barrelling down from Canada to bring us repeated light snow events.  So at this point, I personally am leaning toward somewhat drier than normal conditions around here.  Sometimes persistence is the best forecast unless there is something obviously huge to shake things up.

Posted under CPC Outlook, forecast, Winter Weather

I hope everyone was able to stay safe over the weekend during the snowstorm. It seems the forecast turned out ok with the heaviest snow occuring north of Marathon county. Rhinelander reported 4.0 inches on Saturday. Wausau only had a half inch. I suppose winter enthusiasts might be getting excited about the possibility of a long snowmobile, ski, and ice fishing season. I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade, but Winter has not arrived yet. I know there is a good amount of snow on the ground in the northern half of the area, but this week and next look fairly mild. As of now, it looks like the will not be any major outbreaks of cold air for the next couple of weeks, which would take us through early December.

CPC December Temp. Outlook

What about the rest of the Winter? As we detailed last month, the official CPC Winter forecast does not indicate a greater chance of colder than normal temps or greater snowfall for Wisconsin. Officially, the CPC is saying we have an equal chance of being above or below normal. In contrast, the computer models continue to show a little better than equal chance that we will have harsher than normal Winter conditions (the possibility of more cold and snow). As an aside, some other outlets, such as the Farmer’s Almanac and Accuwx, have issued forecasts calling for a very bad Winter with a lot of cold and snow.

Dec-Jan-Feb Temp Outlook

Go here to find the latest monthly computer model outlooks issued by the CPC. Interestingly, the forecast for the month of December is for equal chances of above or below normal temperature and precipitation, yet for the entire Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb), the models are indicating a greater chance of colder than normal temps with above normal snowfall (for most of Wisconsin). In my mind, this would mean the Winter might get off to a slow start but then turn much colder and snowy for January and February. Personally, I would like to have it the other way around. I would rather get the bigger snow storms and cold waves out of the way in December and early January and then have milder conditions by February.

CPC Dec-Jan-Feb precip. outlook

In any case, it looks like mild conditions for this week, including high temps near 50 for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, and above normal conditions for much of next week, so Winter enthusiasts will have to temper some of their enthusiasm. Even though the weather will be warmer, overnight low temps in the 20s the next couple of nights should ensure that Granite Peak has a few runs open this weekend as planned. Be sure to check the Granite Peak website , before making plans. With the milder conditions, the first ice might not develop well until sometime during the first week or two of December.

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Now just a couple of follow-ups on some Space stories you might be interested in and that I have mentioned previously in the blog. The Mars Science Laboratory is scheduled to launch on its mission this Saturday, the 26th of November. It is the biggest and most sophisticated rover to be sent to Mars. The rover is the size of a small car and weighs about 1 ton. Hearing that it weighs a ton makes me worried that it might get stuck in the martian sand. The last two rovers experienced quite a few instances where they had trouble getting stuck. Hopefully the wheels on this behemoth (officially name Curiosity) are big enough to keep it “afloat”. Keep your fingers crossed that everything goes well. The success rate of Mars mission is a little less than 50%. In fact, just 2 weeks ago, a Russian Mars mission was lost when it got stuck in earth orbit – probably due to a mechanical or computer failure.

Also on the forefront of private space travel, the company Blue Origin recently successfully launched and landed their vertical take-off/landing spacecraft. This company has been much more secretive about its designs and plans in the past. It is nice to see them release a video. I am unsure when and/or if they plan to take private astronauts (and payloads) to the edge of space or into earth orbit.

In the event that a much desired robotic mission is sent to Jupiter’s moon Europa, there is an increased chance of finding signs of life after an analysis of the planet’s exterior showed there could be liquid water lakes much closer to the surface that thought in the past.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Space

Following up on yesterday’s post about continued positive news in solar energy in the face of a world financial depression (meaning less subsidies for solar panels), here are a couple more technological advances that could pay dividends a couple years down the road:

Researchers in Europe have improved the quantum dots for solar applications to the point where they can get 3 or more electrons to “get moving” from just one photon of light. If this technology can be translated cost-effectively into solar panels, efficiencies could reach as high as 44%. That would be a substantial improvement from commercial panels of the present day.

Solar panels might be coming to a car near you- not for running the engine but for running other functions of the car such as the air conditioner. While this is not a big breakthrough, it is one of those little developments that keeps things moving in the right direction – getting more efficient all the time.

Solar panels might be coming to a mountain near you as well. Solar panel researchers, advocates, and manufacturers have recently explored high elevations as a place for solar panel installations. You might not think that a high mountain top would be ideal for solar energy production, but higher up the air is thinner and more solar radiation will hit the solar panels. The cold air will also help the panels run more efficiently. Electronics typically run better at cold temps (although batteries do not). I foresee a couple obstacles. One being that the weather is quite harsh once you get above 10,000 feet. Any solar installations will have to be hardened against high wind and freezing precipitation. There is also the problem of getting the electricity somewhere useful (large population centers). New transmission infrastructure will have to be built on mountainsides. This is not trivial. It will have to be hardened against extreme environmental conditions as well. That being said, I could see this being useful near the Andes in South America and near the Himalayas in India.

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The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor update brings some good news our way. The area in the state of Wisconsin that is categorized as abnormally dry has shrunk from about 48 percent down to 23 percent this week. What helped was three days of rain last week, otherwise there has been hardly any rain this month. This Fall has been one of extremes with dry conditions in early September, then a very wet period during the second half of the month, then another dry period for the first 10 days of October. A tiny bit of good news for Texas as well, their drought conditions improved slightly in the the week. Unfortunately for Texas, they have to worry about La Nina and the winter outlook.

La Nina has influenced the winter forecast thinking at the Climate Prediction Center. Here is their latest outlook for December, January, and Feburary. They expect a Winter of extremes across the nation – just like last Winter with colder than normal conditions in the far northern plains and warmer than normal temps in the southern third to half of the country. They expect the heaviest precipitation to be focused in the Pacific Northwest and northern mountain states as well as in the Ohio Valley. This is very similar to last Winter when there was a strong La Nina in the central Pacific ocean. The La Nina this year is not expected to be as strong so perhaps the weather conditions will not be exactly the same as last winter (they rarely are, no matter if we have El Nino/La Nina or not). Perhaps Texas will not have as bad of a drought as last Winter. We can only hope.

One thing you will notice for Wisconsin is that we are under “equal chances” for precipitation and temperature, which means it is equally likely that we will have below or above normal conditions (temps and precip.). Since the La Nina is weaker (so far) this year, I think the Winter hinges on early snowfall. If we get a big snowfall early (like late November or early December) then I think we will end up with a bit longer and colder Winter overall, like last year. If we don’t have much snowpack early, I predict temps will be above normal. Even though the last three La Nina Winter’s have produce copious cold and snow, there is no guarantee it will happen every time.

CPC November Temp Outlook

If you want to look at all the monthly predictions through next year, go here. The first thing you will notice is that November has a higher chance of being above normal for our area. That would be nice. You will notice something interesting if you click on the DJF outlook (the Dec-Jan-Feb, or “Winter” outlook). The computer models are indicating a much higher chance of colder temps for our area than what the official NOAA forecast referenced above does. The human forecasters at NOAA must have some reasons (I haven’t found a discussion yet) for altering the raw computer output. If you go further into the outlooks, you will notice a higher chance of colder than normal temps lasting until around April 2012.

CPC Dec-Jan-Feb Temp Outlook

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, CPC Outlook, Technology, Winter Weather