As greenhouse gas induced warming of the climate continues, the water cycle will be changing across the globe.  This is the conclusion of a recent study led by William Lau of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland.  He and his team used 14 different climate models to to simulate 140-year spans that ingested varying levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.  The basic findings are that for every 1 degree F temperature rise across the world, heavy rain events will increase by 3.9%.  Meanwhile moderate rain events will decrease by 1.4%.  Also prolonged droughts will increase by 2.6% for the same 1 degree temperature rise caused by increased carbon dioxide.  Light rain events are projected to climb by 1%.

The heavy rain events are forecast to increase the most in tropical zones especially in the Pacific Basin and Asian monsoon regions.  On the other hand the more prolonged droughts should especially impact the southwest U.S., northern Africa, northwest Australia, coastal Central America, and Brazil.

The decrease in moderate rain events is troubling since that is the type of rain that is most beneficial to crops and other plant life.

You can read more about this study from the following link.  http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/wetter-wet.html

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Science

Even though the weather we have experienced since late January is unusual because of the persistent cold and getting even colder (than normal) as time goes by, we still have not broken any records for snow or cold. The length of time that we have had snowcover in Wausau is highly unusual, that is for sure, but the snow amounts with each storm have not been all tha big. The real difference with this Spring and other Springs where we might have seen some snow in April or even May, is that the snow is sticking around. In 2008 we had a few inches of snow between April 8th and April 12th, but it melted within a couple days and we were back to warmer-than-normal temps. This year, there is still no sign of an extended warm-up. The best we will do is get close to 50 today and tomorrow, which is better than nothing.

So is there any record that is about to go down? The most interesting record would be for the coldest month of April. The old record for coldest April in Wausau is 34.0 (average temp) set in 1950. So far this year our average temp is 32.5, so we are on pace to break the record. However, I think we will have enough 40 and 50 degree high temps for the rest of the month to ensure that we don’t end up breaking the all time record. We might end up in the top ten though.

What about snow? We are now up to 75.4 inches of snow for the season. The record is a little over 103 inches, so we have a ways to go on that one. If we get 30 inches of snow yet before Summer arrives, I would be amazed. There is some potential for snow later this week, but it looks like a few inches at the max. The good thing about all the snow is that it should help alleviate the drought. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows most of the state in moderate to severe drought, which is odd, since our precipitation total since January 1st is 7.66 inches, which is a whopping 2.81 inches above normal. I talked to the folks at the Drought Monitor and they said they did not want to remove the drought classifications just yet because they wanted to see how dry the soil was once it thawed. I think it will have a good deal of moisture.

Many people are asking if the cool Spring means a cool Summer as well. It is not necessarily the case that this would happen, although the “hot” March last year was followed by a hot Summer. What we can say for now is that temps will continue to remain below normal for the next week or two, which will almost being us to May. This does not mean it is going to be bitterly cold, just that we are more likely to have high temps in the 40s and 50s, instead of the 50s and 60s. Sometimes the El Nino/La Nina trend can give a clue what might happen a few months into the future, but right now the surface waters in the central Pacific ocean are about neutral and it is expected to stay that way through the early Summer, so neither El Nino or La Nina will be affecting us. Check the latest ENSO discussion here.

Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Freeze, Records, Winter Weather

Through the blog we offer here at StormTrack9, I hope we are able to share interesting weather information and insightful commentary about various science developments. One particular issue that became front and center last year is drought. One of the worst single year droughts since 1988 hit much of the mid-section of the nation. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, many regions in the U.S. have seen significant improvement over the last couple of months. The High Plains region is still dealing with extreme or exceptional drought, but many of the more food-dense growing regions (around the Mississippi and further east) are doing well as we head into the growing season. Hopefully this will continue into the growing season and food prices will not be affected too much. We are already burning a lot of food in our cars through the ethanol mandate, we don’t need another year of drought to reduce the food supply anymore.

However, if we do have another dry year, it should not be too surprising to blog readers here. In the past, I have shared climate research detailing how multi-year and multi-decade droughts were much more common in the western and southwestern U.S. a few hundred years ago. Many signs point to the idea that the 20th century was somewhat of an anomaly with higher than normal precipitation. Recently yet, another research effort has found the same thing in the southeastern U.S. Studying tree ring data in Georgia has indicated that multi-year droughts (such as the one in Georgia from 2006 to 2009) were much more common prior to the 20th century. This is of course, bad news if multi-year droughts become the norm once again – because – the population has expanded dramatically over the last 100 years – AND – the population has shifted farther south in the country.

Will Drought Return?

Not only that, the typical American household wastes a lot more water now. Urban sprawl and lax attitudes about water as a limited resource have led to a lot of the waste. Back during the 2006 to 2009 Georgia drought, the city of Atlanta was down to a 4 month supply of water at one point. I shudder to think if a city of that size would run out of clean water. If it was a widespread drought, it might make it difficult to truck in water to the city in such a situation.

One good thing is that we continue to develop new technology to develop more sources of fresh water as well as ways to conserve more. Here is one of the recent developments: The New Zealand company Felton has developed a new shower head called Oxijet which uses 50% less water but still feels like you are using the full 100%! I will have to keep my eyes out for that shower head. I wouldn’t mind cutting down my water bill by a significant percentage.

There are also a lot of new materials coming online that might help out with desalination – such as this one developed in China – which might also find other uses, such as in solar power.

One other thing to remember and give thanks for is that we have relatively free trade in goods, particularly food, all over the world nowadays. Even though we had a bad drought in the U.S. last year, which is the biggest food growing country of the world, we still had food on the shelves. When you see the sehlves fully stocked and the labels show other countries of origin, it should remind you that food production has grown in many areas of the world. Not only do we freely trade food but also the technology to grow food. Many farmers in other countries are developing better farming techniques and this means less chance of famine in the future. It also makes me wonder if there will indeed be a shortage of olive oil later his year – as has been speculated because of a drought in Spain and a hailstorm in Australia. I am not all that knowledgeable about where and how many olives are grown in different parts of the world, but my guess is that free trade will buffer the potential negative effects of the weather troubles in Spain and Australia.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Drought, Nature

Before going into a discussion about heat, drought, and ice, I wanted to first highlight once again how the StormTrack9 weather blog is a place for insight and information long before it reaches a wider audience. Late last year I recapped the status of Peak Oil theory. In the blog entry I linked to the latest night-time image of the earth – a cool zoom-able image. I noted what looked like a new huge city in western North Dakota. I mentioned that it was not a city but the sign of all the oil and gas production occurring in the Bakken shale. If you were reading the weather blog, you were a month and a half ahead of Newscientist writers.  Keep reading the weather blog. Stay ahead of the crowd.

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Drought Monitor For Wisconsin

Heat and drought were big stories last year and unfortunately one of the stories continues. Mass media might have forgotten about how dry some parts of the country remain, but I haven’t. Here at StormTrack9 we keep a close eye on the Drought Monitor. If my eyes are not deceiving me, then we still have a problem in much of the country.  Yes, there have been some bouts of significant precipitation in drought-stricken areas, but not enough to budge the “drought” needle across the mid section of the country or in the southeast. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor still indicates extreme to exceptional drought in many areas. The biggest improvement since last Summer has occurred in parts of the Ohio valley in big food-growing states such as Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio.  As I have mentioned before, if we have another widespread drought this growing season, you will probably be blown away by apocalyptic media coverage, even though historically, we have had multi-year droughts and even multi-decade droughts many times on this continent through the centuries.

Here in Wisconsin, the drought situation has not changed too much in the last month or two, which is a bit surprising. We had above normal precipitation (in Wausau) in December and now again in January (check Tony’s January recap). This should start to show up in the Drought Monitor. One thing about the heavier snow that makes me happy is that we will have some Spring melt-off that should help lake and river levels somewhat. Deeper snow usually means a good start to the growing season too, based on my experience.

Ice cover in the Great Lakes

The other half of the big weather story last year – the heat - might be gone but its effects are still being felt. Take a look at the ice coverage map of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. Even though we have had some fairly extreme cold over the last couple of weeks, the ice cover is not too extensive. Fast (solid) ice can only be found in the bays. The heat from last Summer produced lake temperatures well above normal and that heat is slow to leave. With some colder weather now in the forecast for the next few days, I suspect we will have more ice floating around on the Great Lakes but most likely remaining below normal for the season. I think we saw some of the heat effects on the smaller lakes around here in NorthCentral Wisconsin as well. Even after we had enough ice on the lakes to put fishing shacks out, the ice was not firm enough to hold up during a couple of the mild spells. A handful of shacks fell through. I don’t think I can recall as many instances of vehicles and shacks falling through the ice as this year. During most years, once the ice is thick enough to drive on, it is good for the rest of the Winter. This was not the case this year.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Freeze, Heat, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

There is a lot of talk recently about how “extreme” the weather is now, and how it will get so much more “extreme” in the future (even more specualtion here). There are certainly some robust theories as to why this will happen – why the frequency of severe weather events might increase (like all time heat records) - and we should of course be sure to keep our eyes open and do what we can to survive extreme weather events (like burying electrical lines, also see Superstorm Risks). However, we should remember that some unbelievably ”extreme” weather has happened in the past.

There has been much talk about how the desert southwest of the U.S. is going to suffer from more heat and drought in the future. The odds are fairly good that this will happen, not only if the global climate continues to warm, but also for the plain fact that there are millions and millions more people living in, and moving to, the southwest, creating greater stress on the water supply and adding more to the urban heat island effect. However, a “mega-drought” in the southwest should not come as too much of a surprise to blog readers here because I have detailed the climate history of the southwest a couple of times in the past. As new research also shows, multi-year and multi-DECADE droughts were common a few hundred years ago. So there is a fairly good chance we could see some “extreme” stress on rivers such as the Colorado, but it will probably not as extreme as what happened during past mega-droughts. The 20th century might turn out to be an anonymously wet period – and the “extreme” drought might be just “getting back to normal”.

Citicorp Center had to be reinforced in 1978

Even as extreme as Superstorm Sandy appeared, it was known that such a storm was possible decades before, and that infrastructure would be in trouble. La Guardia airport had flooded before and Sandy-type storm surges had been modeled. The Citicorp building was even vulnerable at one point if a “big storm” ever created high winds in New York. Around other coastal areas of the U.S. there have been many periods where stronger hurricanes have struck the coast, well before Katrina entered our collective memory.

One would think receiving 50 inches of rain over just a few days would be pretty extreme as well, but looking at today’s date in weather history we find that it happened in southern California way back in 1969:

On this day in 1969, a spate of heavy rain begins in Southern California that results in a tragic series of landslides and floods that kills nearly 100 people. This was the worst weather-related disaster in California in the 20th century.

Although January typically features relatively high precipitation in Southern California, the first month of 1969 saw an extraordinary amount of rain throughout the region. Mt. Baldy, east of Los Angeles, received more than 50 inches in the nine-day period beginning January 18. By January 26, the Federal Emergency Management Association (FEMA) had declared it a federal disaster area.

The worst part of the remarkable rainfall was that it caused a series of landslides in the hills of Southern California. In Glendora, 1 million cubic meters of rock and mud slid down a hillside, destroying 200 homes and killing dozens of people. Although there was only one fatality, the plight of Mandeville Canyon, north of Sunset Boulevard in L.A.’s Brentwood section, during the disaster was heavily publicized due to the wealth and fame of its residents….read the full story here.

I can’t imagine all of the press and “hyperventilating” that would occur if 50 inches of rain fell in the mountains around Los Angeles in the present day, but it is certainly possible again. The oceans are a bit warmer and that means more moisture will typically be available for Pacific storm slamming into California. By the way, on the topic of landslides, a recent report found that it is a more dangerous “weather event” than most people realize.

We might have different types of extreme weather or more frequent severe weather in the future, but a lot of it has occurred before. Our short memories need a refresher once in a while.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Flooding, Heat, Severe Weather

There haven’t been a lot of big, wet storms moving through the Rockies and Plains to the Upper Midwest this winter so far.  I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising then that the drought conditions are pretty substantial yet in the western and central part of the county.  The latest drough monitor from January 1st shows drought all the way from southern California to parts of Wisconsin.  The most severe conditions are running from Wyoming to southern Minnesota south all the way to Texas.  In Wisconsin, the driest conditions are over the western portions of the state.  Drought conditions are also impacting an area from southern Alabama northeast up to Virginia.

While a series of storms will slide from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes the the weekend of January 12th, it appears weeks of rather dry weather are lined up after that to finish up January.  As such, the overall strength of the drought is expected to persist across the Rockies and Plains.  There might be some improvement around Wisconsin according to some experts.

You can find much  more information on the drought, soil moisture, precipitation trends, and other interesting statistics by checking out the full drought  monitor page at http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/monitor.html

Posted under Drought

Snow-lovers rejoice! We ended up with a record 10.9 inches of snow fall in Wausau yesterday (melted down it was a record 0.54 inches of liquid precipitation for December 20th). Much of central Wisconsin had 6 to 10 inches while it was more in the 2 to 4 inch range in the Northwoods. Besides guaranteeing a white Christmas for the area, the snowfall should also help to alleviate drought conditions.

Snow Totals From December 20th

Ok, I know the ground is frozen right now, but the precipitation still counts toward our yearly total and when it melts in the spring it will help raise the water levels. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor does not show any change in our situation for the past week, but I suspect we will see some improvement in coming weeks, especially if we end up with another snowstorm before the end of the month.

Another snowfall will be crucial because yesterday’s snow was probably not enough to get most of the snowmobile trails open. The problem with the snow in Wausau was it’s very dry, powdery, and fluffy nature. We probably need a heavy wetter snow of 4 to 6 inches yet on top of the 10 inches before most of the trails can be opened, and nothing of the sort will be coming in the next week, but perhaps before the end of the year. If we had snow that was more like cement and it piled up to nearly 20 inches, like it did around Madison yesterday, then we would have no trouble with good trail conditions.

CPC Precip Outlook for January

So will snow conditions stay good through the rest of the Winter? The latest CPC monthly outlooks seem to indicate some hope. The projection for January is that there will be a higher chance of above normal precipitation (hopefully it falls as snow!). On the temperature side of things, we are in the “EC” (equal chances) category which means the climate models cannot pin down any heightened chance of below normal, normal, or above normal trend. The climate models do indicate a higher chance of colder than normal weather for the Dakotas and Minnesota. If we don’t get a lot of snow in January, then the rest of the Winter and Spring might not hold out a lot of hope, as the three-month outlook (Jan-Feb-Mar) indicates EC for precipitation and temperatures. The most interesting (and maybe foreboding) aspect of the latest long range monthly outlooks is a higher chance of above normal temps for our area in late Spring and early Summer. If the year starts out warm again and there is not enough rainfall/snowfall, it will exacerbate the drought that is already in place for most of the nation.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Drought

Because it has such a big influence on our cold season weather here in Wisconsin, I follow the twists and turns of El Nino and La Nina out in the Pacific ocean. Just last week, the CPC released its monthly diagnostic discussion of the tropical Pacific ocean pattern.

Pacific subsurface heat content is lower

At one point around late Summer and early Fall it had looked like a weak to moderate El Nino could develop for the Winter. Which could have meant well above normal temps and less snowfall for our area. Now it looks like the El Nino will not officially form. The latest analysis indicates a slightly positive (warmer than normal) surface water temperature in the central Pacific and this is expected to slowly return to neutral over the next couple of months. For reference, the temperature has to be at least a half a degree above normal for a few months before an El Nino is officially declared.

So what does this mean for the rest of our Winter? It means there is no major climate signal to hang our hat upon – to give us a good clue as to whether the weather will be warmer or colder than normal – whether precipitation will be above or below normal.

Computer models indicate declining/neutral temps

Thus far, the Winter (first two weeks of December) in Wausau has been well above normal – even ahead of last year when the average temp for December was a whopping 6 degrees above normal! It looks like this milder trend will continue through the middle of next week before we start to see a chance at more colder weather. So December will probably go down as the 10th out of 12 months with above normal temps in 2012. Will it continue? Without El Nino around there is at least a better chance of more normal Winter conditions in January and February. The key thing for enjoying Winter is snow and even if it is mild we could still end up with a good amount of snow. All it takes is a couple of big storms (6 or more inches of snow) and we will be able to open up the snowmobile trails.

Another good thing about heavier snow (even in the absence of cold) is that drought conditions will have a chance to improve. The latest US Drought Monitor indicates most areas of the country, including Wisconsin have not shown any improvement in the last couple of weeks. In fact, drought conditions as a whole have increased over the last month, mainly due to expanding dry conditions in the southeast (although they did have some heavy rain just over the last couple of days). So keep your fingers crossed for more snow, or even rain, even though that is less fun this time of year.

Drought Conditions in Wisconsin

Have a swell Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update

Before getting into some of the interesting rain stats from yesterday, I wanted to let everyone know that I do have some pictures from my recent trip to Arizona and some complimentary thoughts about urban sprawl and alternative energy. I hope too blog about this next week, so stay tuned.

Now, here is the skinny on the rainfall from yesterday:

As expected, we broke the daily rainfall record for October 25th in Wausau. The total on Thursday was 2.34 inches. The old record was 1.30 inches set back in 1899. The last time we had so much rain in one day was August 6th of 2011 when 2.43 inches fell. The total rainfall for the month of October is now 5.49 inches. It is the wettest month this year and it ranks as the 7th wettest October in Wausau’s history.

WI Drought Status Oct 23rd

There were a couple of other record rainfall reports in the area. Wisconsin Rapids only received 0.51 inches but that was enough to beat the old record of 0.50 inches. The record total in Rhinelander was 2.03 inches and in Marshfield it was 2.24 inches. A couple of inches of rain was fairly common in much of the area, which is great because…

We are still in a major drought, according to the latest US Drought Monitor. Most areas of the country saw slight improvement in drought conditions in the past week, including the Midwest region, and including Wisconsin. The rainfall that fell on Thursday is not incorporated into this week’s report. I think we will see a bigger improvement in the drought status next week. It was perfect timing for heavy rain – just before the ground becomes frozen. The water will soak in and stay there until Spring.

Have a pleasant Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Rainfall Reports, Records

I’ve been harvesting apples from trees I planted for 6 or 7 years now, but I’ve never been quite as frustrated as this year.  Of course first we had the apple blossoms getting frosted this spring, then the drought, and then the hornets!  I actually had an average crop going, but things have gone downhill fast for me because of the plethora of hornets eating the apples on the tree.  I suspect the dry and warm summer must have something to do with this.  There just seems to be a lot more hornets than usual, and they seem really, really hungry.  Not only that…but they seem really angry too.  If I try to get within 15 feet of the tree that they are on, they start buzzing around me. 

Even when I set a pail of apple peels outside for a few minutes to take to the chickens, the hornets quickly pile on the pail.  It’s hard for me to even get it picked up.  We’ve been seeing a lot of really big nests being built as well on buildings in our area. 

I’m wondering if any of you have had extra trouble with the hornets around your yard this season?  Do you have any tricks on how to deal with them or get them off your apple trees for example?  I suppose I could try to smoke them out, but I hate to light any fires with as dry as everything is.  I have noticed they are less aggressive and less numerous early in the morning, cooler out, or raining.  Well, maybe I’ll just have to pick my apples in a downpour to avoid getting attacked!  Who says gardening is easy anyway.  Hopefully it won’t be as tough next year.

Posted under Ag Weather, Drought, Ecology, Gardening