In “Bad For Science“, I mentioned a couple recent events that were bad for the advancement of science in general. One of those events was the conviction (for manslaughter) of seismologists in Italy for failing to properly predict the severity of an earthquake. Predictions about the earth, whether the weather in the air or movements of the ground, are not perfect. Most people are aware of this. Predictions get better every year but most people have a good understanding of the variable nature of….nature. So it was surprising to hear of this conviction of the seismologists. The good news is that the scientists have appealed their conviction. From my far away perspective, I fail to see why they should be convicted of manslaughter. I hope the conviction is overturned. If not, I wish Italy good luck finding any new seismologists to help protect citizens from earthquakes.

Have a fine Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Earthquake, Science

A magnitude 7.5 earthquake hit off the west coast of southeastern Alaska just before 3 a.m. CST Saturday.  The following information is taken from the USGS website.  There was a tsunami warning in effect Saturday for portions of the Pacific Basin, but it has since been cancelled.

Tectonic Summary

Posted under Earthquake, Natural Disasters, Tsunami

In case you are wondering, the Washington Monument and other important historical sites on the National Mall in Washington D.C. are not sinking out of site.   NOAA’s National Geodetic Survey completed in depth height measurements in the spring of 2012.  They wanted to find out if the earthquake that hit that area in August 2011 caused any substantial footing changes that would cause the Washington Monument to deteriorate.  The answer is there has been no noticeable change to the ground or settlement of it.    They plan to do similar surveys around the country at important sites to get a fix on areas that might have sinking ground that could jeopardize structures.

Below you can find the full article put out by NOAA.

NOAA Finds No Vertical Movement to Washington Monument Due to 2011 Earthquake

August 22, 2012

Surveyors from NOAA’s National Geodetic Survey take height measurements near the Washington Monument in spring 2012. Results of measurements taken in March and April indicate that the monument experienced no significant up or down movement as a result of a 2011 earthquake in the region. The monument rests on a 25-foot-deep fill foundation that is approximately 65 feet above bedrock—a foundation that can be vulnerable to soil liquefaction during earthquakes.

A survey conducted earlier this year by NOAA’s National Geodetic Survey (NGS) indicates that an August, 2011, earthquake in the region had no discernible impact on the settlement of the Washington Monument.

What the 2012 survey does show—based on five leveling surveys of relatively consistent points of measurement taken since 1926—is that the area of the National Mall built on landfill has settled at a rate of approximately 0.013 inches per year, or a total of approximately one inch. This region includes the Washington Monument and areas south to the Potomac River.

NGS further found that the rate of settlement for the Washington Monument itself, based on multiple measurements taken since 1901, is 0.02 inches per year. This indicates that the monument has settled approximately 2.2 inches since 1901.

The 2012 survey, which encompassed the entire National Mall, is the first of what NOAA and the National Park Service plan to be a series of periodic geodetic leveling observations of the Mall area to better track subsidence changes and ensure adequate preservation of the Mall.

The report recommends that NGS and the National Park Service take GPS observations of the damaged obelisk during upcoming repairs. Similar readings were last taken during a monument restoration project in 1999-2000. Comparing new observations with those from more than a decade ago is expected to result in more reliable data on the nature of subsidence in and around the District of Columbia.

The 2012 survey was conducted at the request of the National Park Service.

Posted under Earthquake, Geology

Here is a story that would have upped the total on the Big List of bad things that are predicted to happen because of anthropogenic global warming (AGW): More variability in Summer-time temperatures is linked with a small increase in mortality risk among older people with chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart disease, lung problems, etc… It has been predicted that not only will temperatures be warmer in coming decades but also that temps will become more variable.

I used to keep the Big List because I was amazed at all the things that were being blamed on “global warming”. Some of the predictions were rather extreme and others were contradictory. This newest study about chronic disease and temperature variability is interesting but I don’t think it gets to the heart of the matter, or the root cause. Yes, temperature variability could lead to some health problems, and it is something to keep an eye on in the future, but the bigger problem – in the U.S. anyway – is the obesity epidemic, the general decrease in health metrics overall, and the aging population. Because of these factors, we will likely have more health related mortality in the near future regardless of temperature variability. If our goal is to reduce mortality risk in the near future (by the most possible), we should focus on aging and disease specifically, instead of modulating the climate. Chronic diseases can be conquered and health can be improved by just small investments or changes in lifestyle. I work closely (part-time) with a couple of different organizations who are at the leading edge of promoting health and even rejuvenation: SENS & Longecity.

Smog in Los Angeles

We would likely also get more bang for our buck by reducing air pollution which has a much higher known correlation with increased mortality. Most of the things we would do to decrease urban air pollution (using cleaner or alternative fuels) would also be good long-term for the environment and possibly blunt some theoretical future warming from AGW.

And finally, I wonder how much of this apparent increased mortality risk associated with increased variability in temperature is due to our adaptation to indoor climate control. In contrast to the past, many people spend much more time indoors where the temperature does not change much. Most people, even poor people, have air conditioning for the Summer and central heating for the winter. The typical working stiff leaves their climate controlled home in the morning, drives to work in a climate controlled vehicle, work in a climate controlled office building and then returns home in the evening to more climate control. There are a lot of people who do not spend much more than a minute or two outdoors on a cold winter day or a hot and humid Summer day. A couple years ago when I was in Phoenix, I asked some of the people how they survive during the Summer when the temperature is 110 or 115 degrees for days on end. They said they just stay indoors all Summer. Could some of our late life susceptibility to temperature variability (small as it is) be due to our lack of encounters with temperature variation earlier in life?

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By now, you have probably heard about the major earthquake near Sumatra that occurred overnight. Thankfully, no major tsunamis have been spawned thus far. Another large earthquake (about 8.6) might again leave people wondering about what can be done to protect against them. They seem so sudden and unpredictable. A while back I discussed the possibility of using weather satellites to see changes in the air above a earthquake zone in order to predict when a big one might strike. A more promising technique might be to set-up ozone measuring stations near major fault zones. At least one researcher is studying the effect of ozone being created from fractured rock in order to see if this could help detect earthquakes. Even if there was an ozone build-up only seconds or minutes before an earthquake it would prove very valuable for warnings.

Another method for detecting the magnitude of an earth very quickly after it has occured might be to use GPS. GPS units placed near active fault zones would shift during an earthquake and it could be known within a minute or two how strong the quake was, and then appropriate actions could be taken. Tsunami warnings might be improved with this method as well.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Earthquake

Photo from the Associated Press

A boat that was part of the five million tons of “stuff” thrown into the Pacific Ocean during the massive Japanese earthquake and tsunami has been spotted off the Canadian Coast. 

The Associated Press is reporting that the 65-meter long boat is moving toward land, 160 miles off the coastline of British Columbia. 

To put that in perspective, if you were driving down Interstate 39, that’s about 20 miles farther than the distance between Wausau and Madison!

The horrific earthquake and tsunami struck Japan just over one year ago on March 11, 2011.  More than 15,000 people died and it brought about one of the biggest nuclear power plant scares in years.    

According to The Toronto Star, there is no environmental concerns over the abandoned ship, but mariners in the Pacific Ocean need to take warning because “the vessel poses a potential navigational hazard.”

Photo from National Geographic

Posted under Earthquake, Environment, Flooding, Geology, Natural Disasters, Nature, Oceans, Tsunami, Uncategorized, Weather History, Weather NEws

Source: United States Geological Survey

With the source of the mysterious booming sounds and shakes from Clintonville being cited as a series of mini-quakes taking place you might be thinking about where you can learn more about earthquakes from a reliable source. 

The United States Geological Survey is the premiere organization for you to turn toward for information. 

This web link: http://www.earthquake.usgs.org provides a wealth of interesting information.  Perhaps most fascinating is that the page provides two maps that depict the locations of every detected earthquake in both the United States and around the world.  For specific data on individual earthquakes you can click on the map and zoom in toward each quakes’ epicenter. 

The largest of the series of mini-quakes in Clintonville measured 1.5 on the Richter scale.  Though that is very small compared to other earthquakes around the world, it’s the rock types found deep beneath the surface soils that play a large role here. 

Source: University of Wisconsin--Green Bay

Granite is a commonly found rock beneath Clintonville, and much of East Central Wisconsin.  It’s also one of the strongest rock types on the planet.  I asked a geologist at the Universityof Wisconsin—Marathon County yesterday about granite and he said on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the strongest, granite is a solid 10.

That’s an important part in the story.  Strong rock types like granite have little give.  Any shaking below the earth doesn’t have much lee-way when the vibrations move through it.  Softer rock types though have more of an ebb and flow approach. 

So-called earthquake-ready buildings do not try to fight the force of earthquakes, but rather are designed to in a way ride it out.  Rigid structures (strong rocks too) don’t handle this well and shake (or collapse in the case of buildings.)  Relatively flexible structures (and rock types) cope with earthquakes because they allow for more give.        

For a complete report of the 1.5 magnitude quake from the USGS, click here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/usc0008n7t.php

Posted under Earthquake, Education, Geology, Weather History, Weather NEws

Every year we provide tips for surviving severe weather events here in Wisconsin. There is a Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Awareness Week, A Flood Safety Week, Lightning Safety, Safe Boating Week, and Winter Weather Awareness Week, just to name a few. While researching safety tips for an upcoming presentation, I thought I would look at some other types of disasters that do not normally happen in Northcentral Wisconsin, just for my own knowledge, because I never know what might happen in places where I might travel. 

I lived in California for almost a year but I never did feel or experience an earthquake. It must have been one of the quietest earthquake years in California’s history. I didn’t even feel a minor tremor. It is probably a good thing, because I didn’t know how to protect myself in the event of a big quake. I am not going to go through all the different safety and preparedness tips here in the blog, just a couple interesting things I learned. For more in depth information here are a couple of websites I found useful:

Geology.com and National Geographic

One of the more interesting tips was that if you are sleeping when an earthquake happens, you should stay in bed and cover your head with a pillow. Also, if you are cooking, it is reccommended you turn off the stove before seeking safety in your home. I suppose the danger of an electrical or gas fire due to the stove being on is greater than threat posed by delaying your move to get under something sturdy and away from the walls and windows.

When looking at Hurricane safety and preparedness, it seemed fairly simple. Most of the action occurs before a storm arrives. The main safety advice is to just evacuate – have a family disaster plan in place and then be ready to evacuate. Be sure to take your pets as well. Once an area is quarantined by the authorities, they will not let you in no matter what. I have heard second hand of horror stories where people were literally just a few yards from their starving pets but they were not allowed to cross the barricade/check point in order to save them. One piece of advice that I did not find on official hurricane safety sites was to keep an axe in your attic. This is advice I have heard from other people and it is mentioned here. The idea here is that if there is major flooding during or after a hurricane and you are trapped in your house, you can use the axe to chop a hole in your roof so you can get out.

Do any of you have any hurricane or earthquake stories to share? What about any other odd natural disasters that don’t normally occur in Northcentral Wisconsin?

We certainly have not had to deal with many Winter “disasters” this year. The Winter has been pretty tame, but it was not predicted to be that way by some. If you remember back to the Fall, the Farmer’s Almanac and Accuwx were at least two sources that were predicting very harsh Winter conditions across the Midwest, including Wisconsin. I think those forecasts were based mainly on the fact that La Nina was occurring in the Pacific. Last Winter there was a La Nina in the Pacific and it WAS a bad Winter. This year was almost the opposite.

You will recall that even I was predicting a little below normal temps and a little above normal snowfall – mainly due to La Nina. I didn’t go overboard because this Winter’s La Nina was not as strong as last Winter and because I know that La Nina historically has not had as strong an influence on our Winter weather as El Nino. It is true that the last 3 La Nina’s brought colder and snowier winter conditions to Wisconsin, but if you go farther back in history, the correlation is not as clear.

Computer Forecasts for ENSO Trend

So what is La Nina up to now? A moderate La Nina is still occurring but it has shown signs of slight weakening in the past month. Here is the latest monthly diagnostic discussion. The computer models are forecasting a continued weakening over the next couple of months, enough so that it is gone (temps in the ocean would be neutral) around May. I just hope that all of our Winter weather has not been saved-up only to be unleashed upon us in March and April. I wouldn’t mind see some above normal precipitation this Spring (I hate droughts), just as long as it comes as rain and not snow & cold.

Have a fine Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Earthquake, ENSO Update, Hurricanes, Natural Disasters, Weather Safety

Due to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, devastating tornadoes in the U.S. and various other disasters, 2011 is already the costliest year for weather disasters in recorded history. Through the first 6 months of 2011 natural disasters have resulted in $265 billion in losses. The second place year was 2005 when losses were about $220 billion. Surprisingly (and thankfully) this year is no where near close to being tops in human deaths from natural disasters. Tragically, 19,380 people have died from natural disasters this year. Last year the total was much higher due to the earthquake in Haiti which killed 225,000 people alone. Another deadly disaster last year was the heat wave  that struck Russia, killing about 50,000 people.

This year, the most deadly event was the Japan earthquake and deaths from that disaster might continue to rise due to lingering after effects. Not only have some strong aftershocks hit the island nation (one just a few days ago), unfortunately, the complete meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant spread a lot more radiation around that what was originally assumed and reported. Recently, radioactive particles have been found in the ash of waste incinerators. Contaminated meat has also been found from cows raised near Fukushima. So far, the radiation health risks have been contained, at least according to Japanese government officials, some of whom have not been very forthcoming throughout this ordeal. It makes me wonder how much radiation actually reached the United States. It is probably not much and I haven’t seen any reports about health risks, so hopefully we will be alright. What makes the tragedy even more tragic is the news that the Fukushima plant was built on a site that once had a 120 foot hill. TEPCO razed the hill so that the nuclear plant would be closer to sea level and bedrock. They calculated the odds of a tsunami as being so low that the plant would be ok. Sadly, it wasn’t. Mother Nature surprised us again.

Maybe we will not be so surprised in the future, by earthquakes anyway. geologists and seismologists have long been working on methods of predicting major earthquakes (including a new and better understanding of how plate tectonics work) and now they might get a new tool in their arsenal, courtesy of the weather. Preliminary analysis of the weather over northeastern Japan shortly before the big earthquake shows an increase in infrared emssions and an increase in total electron content in the ionosphere over the epicenter in the days leading up to the quake (another article here with graphics).

Because it is only one quake and one set of data, it is hard to draw any firm conclusions about the weather before an earthquake. I would say the electron content of the ionosphere holds more promise. The infrared emissions of the atmosphere change all the time for all kinds of different reasons, so it would be hard to know what increases in heat (infrared emissions) were presaging an earthquake and which ones were not. Still, given all the anecdotal reports of weird weather prior to earthquakes, it is an interesting field of study and something to keep an eye on in the future.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Earthquake, Geology, Natural Disasters, Severe Weather

WATCH THE VIDEO: Wandering Wisconsin: Dells of the Eau Claire

Dells of the Eau Claire

Our state has a very interesting geologic history. 

Though you wouldn’t know it when driving through the rolling Wisconsin hills dotted with dairy farms, at one point a long time ago things looked a little different. 

Geologists believe that about two billion years ago massive volcanoes were centered in what we know today as Marathon County!  Why do they think that?  The Dells of the Eau Claire. 

When the lava from these ancient volcanoes hardened into rhyolite–some of the hardest rocks on the planet–millions of years of tectonic shifting tilted that horizontal rock vertically.  That’s how today we see those beautiful chunks of rocks bolt from the ground seemingly soaring toward the sky.   

But wait…where did the volcanoes go then?  

The glaciers steamrolled those volcanoes when they retreated northward, whittling them down to smooth rolling hills.  Glacial melting provided the water needed to erode away sections into the Eau Claire River, giving us what we see today.  Few places on earth can you see naturally occuring square rock formations paried with smooth circular edges because of sand and water erosion. 

For more information on Dells of the Eau Claire and the other parks in the Marathon County Parks family, visit them online here.

Posted under Community, Earthquake, Environment, Geology, Nature, Science, Summer, Trails

Remember the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan that got hit by the earthquake and tsunami. It turns out that the damage was much more significant than authorities let on in the beginning. Apparently there was a complete meltdown of three reactors and a partial meltdown of the fourth on the day of the tragedy. Much more radiation was released than was told the public and it was (and still is) a much greater health hazard than everyone was led to believe.

When it was thought that there was no meltdown (by most of the world except insiders at TEPCO), many opined that nuclear power was still a viable option for future power needs – a cleaner greener option with less carbon dioxide emissions. Since then, things have really soured. Not only is Japan thinking about scaling back nuclear power, Germany is beginning a plan to phase it out as well. The problem with phasing out such a significant source of energy is that it will make electricity much more expensive. At this point, Germany plans to make up for the lack of electricity from nuclear power with off shore winds farms which are more expensive and produce intermittent power. Also, wind turbines do not come without side effects. While they are currently the “greenest” alternative energy option, they do have adverse effects on the weather, flying animals, and perhaps fish. Some scientists suspect that the constant droning sound of the wind turbines might stress some aquatic life.

Back in Japan, ground zero of the meltdown, they are already feeling the effects of living without nuclear power and much of the rest of the world is mulling transitioning to other forms of “green energy”. Various countries are looking toward alternatives not only because of safety issues but because a recent study has shown that nuclear power is not as scalable as many people previously thought. The study indicates that we could probably triple our current nuclear power before the rising cost became unsustainable. If we wanted to power the world with nuclear (fission) we would need to increase our nuclear capacity by about 45 times. So it looks less and less likely that nuclear fission will be the energy of the future. It might even be rapidly phased out if the price of other energy options continues to decline (like solar). I am still holding out some hope for nuclear fusion. In the next couple of years, while wind and solar power gain traction, natural gas could become the cleaner, cheaper, and slightly “greener” fuel of choice to keep society afloat.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Earthquake, Tsunami