Some interesting anthropogenic global warming (AGW) news has made some headlines recently. A lot has to do with pinning the blame (or not) on human activities. In recent years, the media, “climate activists”, and researchers have been much better at couching research and statements in more scientific terms – using probabilities to describe forecasts, weather events, and outcomes, as they relate to AGW. Instead of pinning EVERY “bad thing” on AGW (literally, remember the “big list” I used to keep, and this list), it is usually suggested that AGW is playing a part and it could get worse in the future.

One thing that many were attuned to recently is whether there would be a declaration that Superstorm Sandy was the direct result of AGW. For the first couple of months after the storm, most weather and climate experts gave the scenario a solid “maybe”. Just recently, a new paper suggests a strong link between from AGW to arctic ice loss to jet stream blocking patterns to Superstorm Sandy. Plausible? Yes. Could the same type of weather pattern and large storm arise without the lack of Arctic sea ice? Yes. In fact, meteorologist, insurance actuaries, and city planners have long know about the potential of strong wind and flood event and how it would affect the New York/New Jersey area. It happened. We weren’t prepared. I discussed this last fall in “Superstorm Risks“. Even here in Wausau, some year an F5 tornado could strike. It will demolish parts of the city. Are we prepared? No. We have an ailment called “short term thinking” and a blind spot for acknowledging low-chance high-impact events. If we really wanted to prepare, we would bury our power lines, make sure all new houses could withstand F5 tornadic winds, and have an emergency fund built up for the county and the city. We don’t. It is up to you to prepare, as an individual.

Further reading: A picture gallery of dramatic storm aftermath pictures along coastlines, including New Jersey after Superstorm Sandy.

As far as the “blocking patterns” referenced earlier, a new study suggests that these blocking patterns that could lead to extended periods of stagnant weather (could be a heat wave, a drought, cold spells, etc…) are driven by AGW. It is an interesting theory on how lesser temperature differences between the equator and the poles means more stagnant air masses, but it was based on only 32 years of data, which is an extremely short time frame when discussing the climate and trying to project into the future (similar to the flu study which only looked at a 12 year period).

In a rather stark turn of events in AGW theory, cosmic rays are now being studied in order to determine their influence on climate change. One study finds that cosmic rays do affect cloud droplet formation but the effect is probably too small to have an effect on the climate. Another study theorizes that cosmic rays might have an effect upon the “electric heartbeat” (related to lightning) of the planet, which in turn could affect the formation of layered clouds. Why is this a “stark turn of events”? Because it was not that long ago when the first scientists to propose the cosmic ray-cloud droplet connection were figuratively ’laughed out of the room’. The scientists (from the Ukraine) had to face withering criticism and conduct experiments on their own before anyone would take them seriously. It is nice to see a more scientific treatment of the subject in the intervening years, even if it is a small effect. With the some of the lowest solar activity in recent decades on tap for the next few years, we might find out if the tiny effects of cosmic rays do regulate the climate in some manner (such as is theorized to have happened during the Maunder Minimum). Sometimes, tiny processes can be amplified in a complex non-linear system such as the atmosphere. On a side note, I am a little sad about the decrease in solar activity. While it might provide some insight into the earth’s climate it will mean less opportunities to view the northern lights.

There few other AGW stories recently that could go on the big list of things that have or will happened because of AGW:

• The monarch butterfly migration could be disrupted. The idea here is that the butterfly is extremely vulnerable to small changes in temperature. I am not so sure. It seems like a rather tenuous theory considering we have had decade-long periods of cooler and alternatively warmer weather here in North America over the last couple centuries, and the butterflies seemed to have made it through.
• Viviparous lizards could go extinct. Again, this seems a bit tenuous (anyway, how it was described in the article). Viviparous lizards have a reproduction method that allows them to survive in colder climates than other lizards. The idea is that if the world warms, these lizards will suffer. I would tend to think they would only suffer if they CANNOT reproduce in warm weather, a key point which was not clearly explained in the article.
• Extreme rainfall events  have increased and will continue to increase if the earth continues to warm. This consequence has better theory and data behind it. Warmer air holds more moisture and thus more available to produce rain. However, rain formation is a multi-variable process and there could be a few trends (like less temperature contrast around the globe) that leads to less rain.
• Volcanoes are taking the blame for some of the NON-increase in global temperatures over the last 12 years – perhaps 25% of the reason for the lack of warming. This seems plausible. There have been a few small volcanic eruptions, but no big ones. I would tend to think emissions from jet airplanes would have a larger effect blocking some of the sun’s energy than some of the small volcanoes.
• Many climatologists have explained the possible changes that could occur with AGW as a shift in climate zones. Wisconsin’s climate will be more like Illinois in the future. Ontario’s climate might be more like Wisconsin was in the past. A new paper has tracked some of the changes, and so far some of the shifting of climate zones has occurred. Will it continue in the future. Yes, if this is a longer term trend and we add a couple of degrees on average. I know most people in Wisconsin (strange to say) would welcome such a change, especially after we just had another snowfall.

Finally, I have to revisit one of my pet peeves in the AGW conversation, and that is the use of the terms “tipping point”, “point of no return”, and “irreversible”. These rather dramatic terms are used to describe how once the earth warms up to a certain point there is no going back, the biosphere and the atmosphere will be forever altered, never to return to the former state. It is often suggested that we are already past the “point of no return”. It is certainly possible for the climate system and the biosphere to achieve different stable states. The problem is that these things can and do flip back and forth, and have done so throughout human history. Just recently there have been a couple of reports using these terms again. The melting of the Siberian permafrost is proposed to be a devastating “tipping point” in the climate system. Ice loss in the Canadian arctic (not Greenland) is going to be “irreversible”. The ice loss might continue in the short term and not reverse itself for decades, if AGW predictions are true, but it is hardly “irreversible”. Just 100,000 years ago Greenland was warmer than it is now. Also, as I pointed out just a few years ago, much of the Canadian arctic was warmer than it is now, as little as 1600 years ago! Plants grew in places where there are ice domes now. The Canadian arctic seemed to make it through that past massive warming ok.

The point here is not to diminish potential threats in the future, but to reign in hyperbole. Mass hysteria due to over-hyped threats probably does more harm than good. In that regard, I am encouraged to see at least one ecologist also complaining about the “irreversible” and “tipping point” terminology that is bandied about so often nowadays.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Arctic climate, Climate Change, Ecology, Weather NEws

And now a little time for a segment known as “maybe-it-is-not-as-bad-as-originally-thought”. I do these from time-to-time because some new studies can promote a lot of sensationalized reports in the mainstream media. It is good to look back and see if all the hype was true.

Coral reefs have been under the spotlight for some time now because warmer and more acidic oceans pose a threat to their normal life cycle. There is much evidence that coral reefs are under stress and receding in parts of the worlds oceans. There have been many headlines proclaiming an end to coral reefs as we know them and that this will cause a collapse of the oceanic food web (and a lot of other environmental horrors). It turns out there is also some positive news in regards to coral reefs. As with any form of life, coral reefs do posses some adaptability. A new study has shown that some coral reefs can survive hotter temps. Also, tiny creatures known as Foraminifera, which have calcareous shells seem to be on the increase and helping to stabilize coral reefs. Don’t get me wrong, I would prefer that we did not continue to impact and pollute the oceans as we do, and I try to live very efficiently, but it is nice to see that all is not lost when it comes to coral reefs in 2013 – thanks to the adaptability of life.

A Healthy Coral Reef

Here is another aspect of ecology that is not as bad as previously reported – something that I have mentioned before – the extinction rate of species is not as bad as thought - so far. There is still a good chance of losing a lot of species if the theoretical AGW temperature rises come to pass, but so far it is not as bad as thought.

So will the drastic AGW warming come to pass? A lot depends on whether or not we can continue deploying alternative energy at an increasing pace, but even if we don’t, theoretical future warming might not be as extreme as previously calculated. A recent study by Norwegian climatologists, one that takes into account the recent stabilization in global temperatures(since 1998 or so), projects that future warming will not be as much as the IPCC has previously forecast. There might still be enough warming to cause problems, just not as extreme as previous studies and models indicated.

If we keep living more efficiently, keep inventing new technology, and keep deploying more clean energy sources, we won’t have to worry as much about potential future warming. It doesn’t mean that the earth will NOT get a lot colder or a lot warmer anyway, but we can remove ourselves from the equation a bit more and focus on adapting to any natural changes that come along.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Ecology

Colder weather is putting thicker ice on the area lakes allowing ice fishermen to enjoy a little safer conditions and this will continue for the next week or so (the ice build-up) as daytime high temps will stay below freezing. We will probably not have temps above freezing again until we have a “January thaw”. The only lakes that are lacking much ice are the Great Lakes. The latest ice analysis (for Lake Superior and Michigan) shows only a little bit clinging to some of the bays and islands as well as some frozen conditions on the north shore of Lake Superior around Thunder Bay.

Ice Conditions on the Great Lakes

Considering how warm it has been for most of this December and how far above normal the temps were in the lake (Superior) for most of this year, I am surprised there is much ice at all. I think it was one year around 1998 (El Nino Winter) or perhaps 2000 when there was hardly any ice that formed in the Duluth/Superior Harbor. That probably will not happen this year, but if we continue to have warmer than normal temps, it will change the Great Lakes ecosystem. Besides ice conditions changing, there is also a lot of man-made stress in the form of pollution that is affecting the Great Lakes. According to this recent tabulation, lakes Michigan, Ontario, and Erie are under the most threat. Considering that the Great Lakes are one of the largest stores of surface fresh water in the world, we should make sure to take care of them into the future. As I mentioned in the past, if we begin moving away from our internal combustion engine, auto-centered, “build-build-build”, “consume-consume-consume” society, it would make the job a lot easier.

Happy Holidays everyone! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Ecology

Even though we have unseasonably warm air in our area through mid-week we are no doubt heading into the season of cold weather.  If you haven’t fired up your fireplace or wood stove yet, you will be soon.  Can you hear the crackle of the flames and smell the rich wood odor just thinking about it?   Many of you are probably quite experienced at it and know how to best go about the business of burning wood.  However this is a good oppurtunity to review tips from the experts on how to make wood buring as efficient, safe, affordable, and the least harmful to the environment as possible. 

The EPA has put together a press release on such matters in their “Burn Wise” program.  Below are some of the main points.

Tips:

Burn only dry, seasoned wood. Properly seasoned wood burns hotter, producing more heat and less pollution. Seasoned wood is darker, has cracks in the end grain, and sounds hollow when struck against another piece of wood.
Use a moisture meter. Wood burns best when the moisture content is 20 percent. Purchase a wood moisture meter for less than $20 to test the moisture content of your wood before you burn it.
Burn hot fires. Once you’ve enjoyed the warmth, many people think they should let a fire smolder overnight, but reducing the air supply does little for heating and increases air pollution. A smoldering fire isn’t efficient.
Start fires with newspaper and dry kindling, or consider having a professional install a natural gas or propane log lighter or a catalyst device in your fireplace to reduce pollution and to increase efficiency.
Regularly remove ashes from your wood-burning appliance to maintain proper airflow. For safety, put ashes in a metal container with a cover and store outdoors.
Never burn painted or treated wood, wet or moldy wood, household garbage, cardboard or driftwood. The can release toxic chemicals into the air – and your home. During the holidays, remember not to burn Christmas trees or wrapping paper!
Upgrading to an EPA-certified wood stove or fireplace insert will make even bigger improvements in fire emissions and efficiency. These models are more efficient than older models, making the air cleaner, homes safer, and fuel bills lower, while still keeping warm in the winter.

 
Learn more on Burn Wise at www.epa.gov/burnwise

Molly Hooven
Press Office
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
202-564-2313
hooven.molly@epa.gov
EPA newsroom: http://epa.gov/newsroom
EPA news releases on Twitter: http://twitter.com/epanews

Posted under Ecology, Education, Pollution, Seasonal Items, Weather Safety

I’ve been harvesting apples from trees I planted for 6 or 7 years now, but I’ve never been quite as frustrated as this year.  Of course first we had the apple blossoms getting frosted this spring, then the drought, and then the hornets!  I actually had an average crop going, but things have gone downhill fast for me because of the plethora of hornets eating the apples on the tree.  I suspect the dry and warm summer must have something to do with this.  There just seems to be a lot more hornets than usual, and they seem really, really hungry.  Not only that…but they seem really angry too.  If I try to get within 15 feet of the tree that they are on, they start buzzing around me. 

Even when I set a pail of apple peels outside for a few minutes to take to the chickens, the hornets quickly pile on the pail.  It’s hard for me to even get it picked up.  We’ve been seeing a lot of really big nests being built as well on buildings in our area. 

I’m wondering if any of you have had extra trouble with the hornets around your yard this season?  Do you have any tricks on how to deal with them or get them off your apple trees for example?  I suppose I could try to smoke them out, but I hate to light any fires with as dry as everything is.  I have noticed they are less aggressive and less numerous early in the morning, cooler out, or raining.  Well, maybe I’ll just have to pick my apples in a downpour to avoid getting attacked!  Who says gardening is easy anyway.  Hopefully it won’t be as tough next year.

Posted under Ag Weather, Drought, Ecology, Gardening

If you enjoy the outdoors, hiking, and checking out important landforms and geological sites in our area, the press release below will interest you.   A major project is sheduled for the Ice Age National Scenic Trail near Aniwa this month.  It is so intensive that a local National Guard Unit has been called in to get it started.  Please read the press release below for full details.  Sounds like it will awesome when this segment is complete!

National Guard to Help Prepare Ice Age Trail for Construction

Marathon County, WI — The Plover River Segment of the Ice Age National Scenic Trail is about to get a little help from the Alpha Company of the US Army National Guard.

Eighty members of the Merrill-based Alpha Company will be assisting Ice Age Trail Alliance (IATA) staff and volunteers at 9:00 a.m. on Saturday, September 8th, in preparation for an event IATA Executive Director Mike Wollmer described as “the most physcially and logistically challenging (trail building) project in our history.”

The project site is located within a superb Marathon County natural resource: the Plover River State Fishery Area, near Aniwa. The trail, once built, will lie atop an end moraine — a hill of dirt and debris — left behind by a continental glacier. Work will take place starting at Highway 52 and Highland Drive and push north and east toward the Marathon/Langlade county line.

The Guard’s role will be to get a running start for the large-scale trail building event that is scheduled for September 18-23. The setup work alone will be prodigious. Troops will help clear 2.7 miles of trail corridor; stage the materials for over a thousand feet of elevated boardwalk; and haul over 18 tons of lumber, hardware, and custom galvanized steel for the September 18th event.

“We’re getting help, confidence and inspiration in magnificent form,” said Wollmer.

On Saturday, Guard members will work under the direction of highly skilled IATA crew leaders trained in trail construction techniques, chainsaw safety and First Aid/CPR as well as crew leadership skills. The pre-event labor is expected to be a tremendous asset in an environment scientifically described as “cathro muck, 6-40 feet deep” — in other words, difficult conditions.

 The Alpha Company has proven its mettle in previous trail building ventures. In May 2011, Alpha Company members were part of a group of over 100 National Guard volunteers working on the Tuscobia Segment near Birchwood.

 The Ice Age Trail Alliance is a non-profit volunteer- and member-based organization established in 1958 that works to create, support and protect the Ice Age Trail. Visit www.iceagetrail.org for more information.

Posted under Ecology, Environment, Recreation & Sports, Trails

A recent study published in the journal Nature, shows a strong link between El Nino and increased air pollution in Indonesia to the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand.  This is because during an El Nino, rainfall is typically lighter than normal in that part of the world.  Farmers in the region thus increase the use of fire to burn and clear the land for agriculture in El Nino years.  The additional pollution is believed to be responsible for as many as 15,000 fatalities in El Nino years.

The study which was conducted jointly by Columbia University and NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies used emissions estimates taken from satellite measurements from 1997 to 2006.  They fed the data into atmospheric chemistry models to plot out air pollution for the region.  

For example during the strong El Nino of 1997, their analysis showed that there was a jump in the amount of fine particles in the atmosphere exceeding World Health Organization standards by 300% for at least 200 days of the year.  Ozone levels, a component of smog,  also increased substantially.  In comparison, during the La Nina episode in 2000, the level of carbon particulates was 98% lower than in 1997.  La Nina provides enhanced rainfall for Indonesia and southeast Asia.

The region is home to over half a billion people.  Furthermore the researchers found that even though most of the burning occurs in rural areas such as Sumatra and Bornea, the impacts are great even well away in large cities such as Singapore and Kuala Lumpur.  Carbon particulates are of most concern, as the are linked to heart disease.  The study concludes of the 15,000 deaths contributed to this fire pollution in El Nino years, around 10,000 would come from carbon exposure, with the ozone responsible for as many as 5,000.  Smog, containing oz0ne is hard on the respiratory system, especially for those with pre-existing conditions.

Posted under Ag Weather, Ecology, Environment, Fire, International Weather, Pollution

I ran across an ongoing project that NOAA has been involved with since 1996, picking up marine debris around the Hawaiian Islands.  I was amazed by how much they get.  The latest expedition which sent the 224 foot NOAA ship Oscar Elton Sette out on the northwest banks of the Hawaiian Islands hauled in 50 metric tons of mostly stray fishing gear.  A majority of it was runaway fishing nets.  They could have brought in much more but the ship was at maximum capacity.

Source: NOAA

The derelict marine debris is a major hazard to sea-life such as seals and turtles and generally harms the entire coral reef ecosystem that is common in the area.  Since 2002 NOAA’s efforts have cleaned out 730 metric tons of nets from the ocean.  As part of Hawaii’s Nets to Energy Program, the nets have been turned into a good amount of electricity.  In fact it’s been enough electricity to power 330 Hawaii homes for about a year!  That’s great.  They are turning something destructive to the ocean and sea life into something positive and necessary for humans.

You can read much more about this and other related marine projects from the following link.   http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120717_marinedebris_cruise.html

Posted under Alternative Energy, Ecology, Environment, Oceans

The hot and sunny weather the past month has pushed the water temperature on the Great Lakes and inland lakes to near record levels for so early in the summer season.  Several people have told me that in fact at times the water on their ponds and small lakes has been so warm that it hasn’t even been refreshing or cooling to take a swim.  Basically it’s been like bath water.  Of course this has been hard on some fish species with fish kill reported in a number of areas around the Midwest.

The water temperature on the Great Lakes ranges from the upper 70s F in southern Lake Michigan to the low 70s in northern Lake Michigan.  Lake Superior is running from the upper 50s to mid 60s.  With a good month yet of summer warming yet before it starts to slowly cool, I imagine we probably will see some 80 degree water showing up in Lake Michigan by the end of July!  Lake Superior might even get into the 70 degree range in some of the shallower near-shore areas. You can track the Great Lakes’ water temperatures from the following link.  http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/glakes_tmap.html

On a different note we might see some much needed water falling through the warm air the next few days.    A weak front will slowly push in from the west and bring us our best chance of rain Friday evening through Saturday afternoon.  It certainly won’t be a c0ntinuous washout type rain.  Rather it would be several intermittent rounds of rain spaced out by hours of dry weather.  While the amounts aren’t expected to be huge, generally .10 to .50″ is anticipated.  There could be a few spots over .50″ through Saturday evening in the western half of Wisconsin especially.  See the map below from HPC for a better glimpse at the potential rain. 

Posted under Drought, Ecology, Environment, forecast, Nature, Recreation & Sports, Summer

A couple days ago I brought up the media coverage of the most recent heat wave, and the lack of hysterics regarding AGW, which is a good thing. Even as more evidence for the theory builds, it is probably counterproductive to verbally panic, as seemed to be the case a few years back when apocalyptic AGW headlines seemed to make the news all the time. Too much “crying wolf” and more people will tune out than tune in.

In absence of overwhelming blaring AGW headlines I was actually heartened to read this recent article about “Imminent Irreversible Planetary Collapse”. Sounds bad, I know. I have discussed the irreversible & planetary collapse themes in past blog entries (including this one). Because I am substantially “techno-optimist”, I am optimistic that increasing technological progress will help us lessen negative impacts on nature in the near future, well before any “planetary collapse”. It also believe that future technology would be able to substantially reverse damage done to the environment, even on a global scale. For those who doubt this, just look at what we have done to the globe thus far – how we have transformed so much of it. With even more powerful technology at our disposal in the near future, how can one doubt our ability to transform the earth even more and on a shorter time scale (hopefully in a positive way).

So why would I be “heartened” to read about the ultimate demise of nature as we know it? Because the authors of the paper mentioned one thing which I have been harping on for a while now – population. One of the simplest and fastest ways to lessen our impact on nature is to stop having kids. I know it would not be easy, and I would never force anyone to not have progeny, but we should at least be talking about it more.

The authors of the paper mention that “we do not have the social structures” in place right now to deal with the climate problem. I disagree. The problem has just been attacked from the wrong angle. Instead of complex treaties, taxes, carbon caps, and wealth transfers, which have dubious chances of success, we could just promote sensible lifestyle choices. Instead of trying to take substantial amounts of private property rights away from everyone in the world (the basic element of climate treaties) for more than 15 years now, if there had been a sustained campaign to convince people to have less kids, or put off raising a family for a while, maybe we would be making better progress by now.

I think quite a few people could be convinced to have less kids or even no kids, but the real problem is something else that I have explained several times (including here: Housing Starts are Negative). It is that our economic system is based on growth. When you strip away all the fancy economic jargon and mathematical formulas, the “growth” of the economy is based on population growth. Even more troubling is that so many government programs including various nationalized medical care systems and the Social Security system here in the U.S. are absolutely dependent on population growth to stay solvent. There are powerful vested political interests that would “freak out” at the suggestion of a shrinking population.

As I have suggested before, I think we need to develop some better metrics of “growth”. Building even more roads, more suburbs, more strip malls, and more parking lots is not “good” growth. Building more things just for the sake of “economic growth” is bad policy. We have to come to grips with the fact that we cannot have ever increasing economic expansion based on population growth. Not with our current technology and not while we only have one planet to live on. Until we develop cleaner energy technologies and easier ways to conserve, we should stop paving over the planet and at least think ab0ut having less kids. It is the simplest route.

Have a swell Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Ecology