Before getting into any other subjects, I should bring everyone up to date on the latest El Nino/La Nina trend, which is one of the  more important ocean/atmosphere circulations we monitor. The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion indicates that the La Nina from this past Winter has ended. The central Pacific ocean surface temperatures are now basically neutral and are expected to stay that way for the next couple of months. By this Fall the computer model forecasts indicate a trend toward a weak El Nino. This is important. Almost every time we have an El Nino in the tropical Pacific we have warmer than normal Winter conditions here in Wisconsin and lower than normal snowfall.

CPC Model Projection

The stronger the El Nino, the warmer our Winter could be. Right now it looks like a weak El Nino will form at best, but it is early in the year, so there could be some notable changes yet before Fall arrives.

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And now a little follow-up on a subject that was much more prevalent last year but many people seem to have forgot about. As has been mentioned in many outlets outside of the mainstream media, the Fukushima nuclear disaster is not over and it is worse than thought. Spent fuel pools (as well as other parts of the reactor) are a grave danger to the U.S. according to at least one Senator who visited the site.

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In another follow-up, I sometimes bring a bevy of news and research that shows things are not as bad as originally portrayed, either for the present or into the future. Last year I blogged about how the trash in the Pacific is not as bad as originally reported. Now this year we have a finding that declares the trash in the ocean could be significant, just not in the way we might have thought in the past. A oceanographer researching in the Pacific found a lot of small particles of plastic a bit below the surface. These types of particles would normally float on the surface and be visible but wave and wind action drives them a few feet below the surface. Past surveys of ocean garbage generally only skimmed the surface water. Smaller particles could more easily find their way into the food chain and cause some disruptions. What is not know is whether these particles are all over the ocean. Maybe they are only in certain areas near manufacturing centers or shipping lanes, such as southeast Asia.

Also, in the not-as-bad-as-originally-proclaimed theme, during the past couple decades the AGW discussion has been peppered with proclamations about “increased storminess”, “more hurricanes”, “more floods”, even more tornadoes. In the case of tornadoes, every time there is a big outbreak, someone usually speculates as to whether the seemingly increasing number of tornadoes is due to AGW. In another, maybe it is not as bad as originally portrayed, the case for tornadoes is not clear cut. There are many factors in the atmosphere that have to be “just right” and these factors might not all come together to produce more tornadoes in the future even if we end up with some theoretical ranges in warming from AGW.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, ENSO Update, Environment, Oceans, Tornadoes

Photo from the National Weather Service

Five tornadoes tore through parts of southeast Colorado yesterday, leaving several injured and causing considerable damage to farming communities. 

According to the National Weather Service two tornadoes hit Prowers County, two tore through Kiowa County,  and one went through parts of Bent County in the early morning hours of April 27th.

According to the Denver office of the National Weather Service, overnight twisters in Colorado are rare.  The last time an overnight tornado hit the state was April 30th, 1942.  Ironically it hit the same two counties of Bent and Kiowa, the same areas hit this year.

For a look at the damage from the National Weather Service Survey team, follow this link: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pub&storyid=82413&source=0.

Posted under Environment, Natural Disasters, Nature, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Spring, Tornadoes, Weather History, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

The Fire Weather Watch includes the entire TV-9 viewing area

According to the National Weather Service, a Fire Weather Watch is issued when “critical fire weather conditions may occur.  A combination of strong winds, very low relative humidity and dry fuels may create dangerous wildland fire conditions.” 

These are exactly the kind of conditions we are anticipating on Easter Sunday.  Relative humidity values are forecast to be as low as 23 percent.  Wind gusts may top 35 to 40 miles an hour and there is no shortage of dry material on the ground right now. 

The Fire Weather Watch will become active on Sunday afternoon and is set to expire on Sunday evening.  During this time conditions will be primed for wildfires to be able to start relatively easily and spread fast.  The watch includes all counties in the TV-9 viewing area, and nearly the entire state of Wisconsin. 

You should take extreme care not to burn outdoors and watch “little things” like cigarettes, even small common-place items can set fires easily.

Posted under Ecology, Environment, Fire

Photo from the Associated Press

A boat that was part of the five million tons of “stuff” thrown into the Pacific Ocean during the massive Japanese earthquake and tsunami has been spotted off the Canadian Coast. 

The Associated Press is reporting that the 65-meter long boat is moving toward land, 160 miles off the coastline of British Columbia. 

To put that in perspective, if you were driving down Interstate 39, that’s about 20 miles farther than the distance between Wausau and Madison!

The horrific earthquake and tsunami struck Japan just over one year ago on March 11, 2011.  More than 15,000 people died and it brought about one of the biggest nuclear power plant scares in years.    

According to The Toronto Star, there is no environmental concerns over the abandoned ship, but mariners in the Pacific Ocean need to take warning because “the vessel poses a potential navigational hazard.”

Photo from National Geographic

Posted under Earthquake, Environment, Flooding, Geology, Natural Disasters, Nature, Oceans, Tsunami, Uncategorized, Weather History, Weather NEws

WATCH THE VIDEO HERE! 

It’s been a fairly unbelievable stretch of weather the past few days.  In the past nine days, Wausau has recorded 10 new record high temperatures.  Six have come as new record daytime highs (March 10^th, 11^th, 14^th, 15^th, 16^th, 17^th, 18^th) and three have come as record high overnight low readings (March 12^th, 15^th, 17^th). 

One of the contributing causes for the warm weather we’ve seen is the position of the jet stream.  At the time of this writing there is an enormous trough or downward plunge over the western United States.  And at the very same time there is an enormous ridge or upward shooting branch of the stream over the eastern United States.  The pattern has been stubborn and very slow to change. 

With cold air shooting southward and warm air blasting northward, the western United States has seen cold temperatures, rain and snow while the east has been setting record high temperature readings for days on end.  In fact on Sunday the higher elevations of northern Arizona picked up a foot of snow while Wausau recorded a fifth consecutive record high temperature. 

When the jet stream takes on such a unique shape some very interesting temperature readings can be recorded.   For fun I thought it would be interesting to compare where the numbers were across the country.  And Wausaustacks up near the top! 

Sunday saw temperatures reach 57 degrees inSan Diego, California. Los Angeles, California hit 58 degrees. Phoenix, Arizona only warmed to 64 degrees Sunday afternoon.  Now here’s where it gets fun: El Paso,Texas saw a daytime high of 78 degrees, the same reading recorded here in Wauasu, good for a new record high.

It’s not too often we out-warm Phoenix.  But when we do, it sure is fun to have bragging rights, and as evidenced by the jet stream pattern, meteorologically interesting to investigate as well!

Posted under Environment, new media, Records, Seasonal Items, Spring, Weather History, Weather NEws

You know I am generally thrilled to see advances in efficiency and I try to keep our faithful blog readers up to date on all the latest advances in technology and energy. Living more efficiently makes a lot of financial sense and allows us to lessen our impact on the environment. You would think that all the gains inf efficiency over past decades would have already helped lessen our impact, but that is not the case. Why? Something known as Jevons paradox. When energy and other items of modern convenience become cheaper we tend to use more of it (them). Clive Thompson does a good job explaining it in this article, mentioning the fact that when electricity became more efficient and cheaper, we didn’t just pocket the savings and continue living the same as before cheap electricity. No. Instead humans decided to light up the whole planet, which of course led us to burn megatons of fossil fuel – every day - for the last century at least.

But will this continue into the future? Perhaps, but I don’t think it will be in traditional ways. True, the developing world is gaining wealth and with that new-found wealth, many are purchasing modern conveniences like cars, better food, electronic gadgets, refrigerators, etc. Even though these items are sometimes orders of magnitude more efficient than the same items Americans purchased en masse during the 20th century, the total energy needed to support them will increase. The vast numbers of people rising out of poverty outweigh the efficiency gains, up to a certain point. Once more of the world, let us say over 50%, has a “comfortable” life and a reasonable amount of wealth, I would expect efficiency gains and new technology to start making a dent in our energy requirements and resultant pollution. After all, it is doubtful that everyone in the world is going to buy 2, 3, 4, or more houses, cars, and TVs and continue to outpace efficiency gains.

There are also two trends working against Jevons paradox. One is Peak Oil. Judging by how things have gone for the past decade, it looks like there is not going to be a crash in fossil fuel supplies (and oil) that sends us back to the stone age (as many Peak Oil theorists had predicted for many years). However, the price of fossil fuels will likely continue to remain high. The high price will force people to live more within their means. Also, the population growth of the world has slowed (hooray!). Most estimates put the number of humans on the planet at mid century around 9 billion. One study has shown that even if medical technology advances so fast so as to allow people to live well into the hundreds, the population will only rise to around 11 billion. Less people on the planet means less energy consumption in most scenarios.

So what could develop in the future that would keep Jevons paradox alive and well into the future. A new form of transportation? Flying cars or rocket ships? I doubt it. I think the main candidate for increased energy expenditure in the future will be virtual reality. Already in 2012 data centers (Internet server and computing ”farms”) are one of the fastest growing energy consuming sectors of the economy, and all we are doing it sharing pictures and playing video games. Spectacularly more immersive and addictive games, movies, and social experiences are coming. These applications for entertainment and the exploration of all things virtual will undoubtedly require mammoths amounts of computation and that means increased energy consumption. Even if we develop super cheap solar and nuclear energy, increased computational demands might continue to outpace our efforts to live more efficiently.

Now you might be thinking that it would be ok if we used more energy as long as it was from clean sources like solar and nuclear fusion. After all, we wouldn’t be emitting carbon dioxide, right? That is true, in regards to theoretical future greenhouse effects and pollution, things would be better, but the planet might still heat up. All the energy we use, no matter what the source, ends up as waste heat in the biosphere. Here is an interesting article looking at the long view of energy. While moving away from fossil fuels would be VASTLY better from a pollution standpoint, the future would not be hassle free with new forms of energy.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Environment, Pollution

Record warmth on Sunday

Click here to view the video!

The weekend of March 10-11 recorded 19 new record high temperature readings across Northcentral and Northeastern Wisconsin, according to data released by the National Weather Service.

Seven records were set on Sat. Mar. 10 while 12 were recorded on Sun. Mar. 11. 

The warmest reading for the weekend was in Wisconsin Rapids.  The city hit 67 degrees on Sunday breaking the old record of 62 degrees set in 2006.

Wisconsin Rapids was also the warmest community on Saturday hitting 65 degrees.  That reading beat the previous record of 61 degrees recorded in 1977.    

Wausau saw new high temperature records on both days.  On Saturday the city reached 61 degrees beating the previous record of 56 degrees from 1977.  Sunday afternoon saw temperatures reach 63 degrees, bypassing the earlier record holder of 55 degrees recorded in 1995. 

Marshfield, Oshkosh and Manitowoc were all able to reach 65 degrees on Sunday afternoon setting new records for each community. 

The oldest record broken during the weekend was from Mar. 11, 1973.  Green Bay reached a high of 63 degrees on Sunday, edging out its previous record for the date by one degree.

Three records were broken in the Northwoods.  Antigo reached 59 degrees breaking the old record of 55 degrees set in 1977.  Merrill warmed to 61 degrees eclipsing the previous record of 58 degrees also set in 1977.  Rhinelander beat its previous record high of 58 degrees recorded in both 1977 and 1995.  The city reached 59 degrees on Sunday afternoon.

To see the data straight from the NWS, follow this link: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=grb&product=rer&issuedby=GRB&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

Posted under Environment, Heat, Nature, Records, Science, Seasonal Items, Spring, Weather History, Weather NEws

Though the bulk of the heavy snow from this weekend’s storm system is tracking north of the major metro areas in Central Wisconsin, other communities are bracing for snow.  And a lot of it!

 Given current forecast projections, the arrowhead region of Minnesota will “take it on the chin” so to speak.  Areas there are expecting 5 to 8” by the end of the weekend with stretches along the western shores of Lake Superior preparing for around 10”.

If you are doing any traveling Sunday or Monday into northern Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin or portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan you could be greeted with some brutal driving conditions. 

Before you hit the road this weekend, check out this website: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dlh&storyid=59787&source=0.  It shows you a map of the major roadways in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky.  The map also overlays current advisories, watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  You’ll also notice that some roads are green, others yellow, and some red.  Linking information provided by each state’s department of transportation that will tell you where travel conditions are good, fair or hazardous. 

The page also includes a mobile link so you can take it on the road. 

Stay safe if you’re traveling this weekend!

Posted under Community, Environment, Seasonal Items, Storms, Travel, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

Aside from a handful of short cold snaps and brief bouts of a few inches of snow at a time, this winter has proven to be fairly tame.  Especially when compared with last year’s winter that provided much of the United States with considerable snowfall. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has just released two images showing just how striking the difference has been in terms of snow depth.  In the image below, you’re looking at the continental United States.  Areas shaded in a taupe-peach color indicate areas that are dealing with nearly 40 less inches of snow compared to the winter of 2010-2011.  Areas in the blue color are places with nearly 40 more inches of snow. 

The top image illustrates the comparison in December, the lower in early February. 

What a difference!  We can see it has been a unique winter anecdotally, but when you look at the numbers and see how widespread the difference has been, it really is quite striking! 

To see the entire article from NOAA, follow this link: http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/image/2012/fierce-2010-2011-winter-dwarfs-this-seasons-snowfall

Image from NOAA.

Posted under Arctic climate, Environment, forecast, Nature, new media, Science, Seasonal Items, Snow Totals, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

During the last week or so I have been updating the blog with news about the attempt to drill into Lake Vostok in Antarctica. It is a story I have followed for a few years because it could turn out to be a significant scientific discovery. The lake has been isolated from the environment for hundreds of thousands of years and more likely millions of years. Life that was once in the lake when it was not covered with 2 miles of ice, might have evolved into strange new forms. Or the lake might be sterile due to the presence of too much oxygen. In that case it would be interesting as well be cause it would be the only place on earth where there is a body of water but no life.

So what has brought this lake into focus again? A Russian drilling program has now reached the surface of the lake - or so they think. They are very close but cannot say for certain if they have reached liquid water that is part of the lake or just some liquid water in the sheet of ice. In any case you will have to hold your enthusiasm for a few months because they have shut down the drilling operation for the season. They have sent most of the engineers and scientists home until late next fall when Summer sunlight and warmer temps return. Only two people will remain to keep an eye on the bore hole. And that is the most interesting part of the story right now. Could you imagine spending a few months near the south pole, a thousand miles from the nearest human, thousands of miles away from any significant civilization, with hardly any daylight? The only thing stirring within hundreds of miles would be you and your comrade. I suppose there is a good communication link (satellite) nowadays that would allow for voice and maybe video communication. That would make it better, but it would still be a tough stint. Having seen The Thing, I would probably be a bit freaked-out for such a mission.

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State Temps During January 2012

From bitter cold Antarctica to a very mild contiguous United States. If you thought that this Winter was a bit milder than normal, you are not mistaken. The NCDC has released state-by-state statistics for the month of January (2012) and it turns out that almost every state had above normal temperatures. In Wisconsin it was the 10th warmest out of the last 118 years. The only states that experienced normal temps were Washington and Florida. Alaska was the only state with below normal temps. In fact, it was the record coldest January in many parts of Alaska. Not only have they experienced record cold but very heavy near record snow in some parts as well.

For anyone who follows the weather you are probably aware of the inverse correlation between weather in Alaska and the contiguous U.S. When it is warmer than normal in the lower 48, it is almost always colder in Alaska. When it is mild in Alaska, the bitter cold tends to move down into the lower 48. If you want to dig into past temperature data from around the U.S. take a look at this interactive web page at the NCDC.

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Alta Devices Solar Panel

Now another blast of good news from the solar power industry. Early this week I profiled Semprius, a company that has claimed the record for the highest efficiency using concentrated solar panels. Another company recently broke a record as well, but this time for regular (non light concentrating) solar panels. Alta Devices’ commercial solar panel has reached an efficiency of 23.5%. I detailed their devices in a past blog post as well. What is even more impressive is that their goal is to be cost competitive with fossil fuel generated electricity WITHOUT government subsidies. Hooray for Alta Devices!

In more speculative solar energy research, at the University of Cambrige scientists have come up with a design that might squeeze 25% more effciency out of today’s solar panels. They are combining inorganic and organic layers within one solar cell in order to capture more energy from the blue light of the visible spectrum.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Ecology, Environment, Geology, Heat, Monthly Recap, Seasonal Items, Technology, World Weather