One thing that jumps out at me this time of the year is the fact that low pressure systems start getting large and stronger.   The cloud and rain shields with them often stretch over 1000 miles as the jet streams get more intense allowing for huge circulations.  A case in point is the current system moving through.  It will be producing a nice soaking rain all the way from the Gulf of Mexico north into Canada. 

The center of the low pressure Wednesday evening was over northwest Minnesota.  On the surface map from 4 p.m. Wednesday below you’ll notice how the wind barbs converge toward the center of the low north of Bemidji. 

There was a long cold front arcing southeast from the low pressure down into Wisconsin and all the way down the Mississippi River Valley.  Another feature of autumn storms is often a big temperature contrast.  Readings were in the 70s in Michigan, but only in the 30s and 40s in North Dakota behind the low pressure.

One large band of rain and thunderstorms was forming ahead of the cold front and sweeping northeast up from Missouri and Illinois into Wisconsin.  This will be the band that focuses moderate rain over the eastern half of Wisconsin Wednesday night.  As you’ll notice from the rainfall projection below, the heaviest is expected to fall east of a line from Eagle River to Clintonville, down to Milwaukee with 1.0″+ amounts possible.  Then there is a relative dry slot curling up from Kansas to much of Minnesota to far western Wisconsin.  Finally heavy moisture is wrapping around the northwest side of the low pressure and that could soak North Dakota and northwest Minnesota with close to 1.0″ of rain as well.  The pattern forms the class “comma” shaped storm we normally see numerous times in the fall through spring around here.

Don’t expect this storm to move away in a hurry as it will be removed from the main steering currents for about 36 hours.   It will sit and swirl across Wisconsin basically through Friday night before slowly pushing eastward.  I guess when the storms get this big they can move just as slow as they want.  While the dreary skies won’t be the greatest to look at, the conditions causing them is always interesting to watch come together.  Until next time, hope you enjoy yourself!

Posted under Fall, forecast, Storms

October 8th is the sad anniversary of the deadliest forest fire on record in North American, the Peshtigo Fire of northeast Wisconsin in 1871.  It actually was a series of fires that devastated areas from well southwest of Peshtigo all the way northeast into parts of southern Upper Michigan.  It even skipped across the Bay of Green Bay and charred parts of Kewaunee and Door Counties.   The final death toll is astounding, somewhere between 1200 and 2400 according to most sources.  This is also the anniversary of a Great Chicago Fire that killed around 200.  Anyway, about 1.2 million acres were burned in Wisonsin, and 2.5 million acres burned in Upper Michigan on that horrible evening.

The main conditions that led to the Peshtigo Fire were a prolonged and severe drought, unusually warm temperatures, and strong winds.  Gusty southwest winds were racing up into Wisconsin on October 8th, 1871 because of the pressure gradient around a strong low pressure system centered near Colorado and Nebraska.  On the weather map from the U.S. Weather Bureau from that date, you’ll notice a lot of black lines in a ring around that low pressure area.  The are isobars, or measure of air pressure.  And the tighter they are packed, the stronger the winds generally will be.  Wisconsin was on the warmer side of the storm with the south to southwest air flow.

Of course there were other important factors involved including farming and logging practices of the day, and many piles of cut trees and brush near railroad lines, along with many stockpiles of saw dust and logs near the saw mills.  So once the fire began, there was a tremendous amount of dry fuel to consume.

There are some incredible stories and accounts of how the fires behaved and how people tried to save themselves.  Please visit the following web sites for in depth information on the Peshtigo Fire.   You could also visit the Peshtigo Fire Museum in Peshtigo (400 Oconto Avenue, Peshtigo, WI 54157).  Phone 715-582-3244.

http://www.peshtigofire.info/

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grb/?n=peshtigofire

http://www.wisconsincentral.net/Culture/Culture/PeshtigoFire.html

Posted under Fall, Fire, Natural Disasters, Weather History

October in Wisconsin can be considered the “heart” of fall.  We typically have a lot of crisp and sunny days with plenty of harvesting going on yet in the fields.  We also usually see an increase in windy days along with a few days of snow showers.   Several all day soaking rains can normally be expected as well.

Specifically daylight shortens by 90 minutes in October.  This fact coupled with the lower sun angle causes our normal high temperatures in the Wausau area to tumble from the low 60s at the start of the month to the upper 40s by the end of the month.  The normal low temperature falls from the lower 40s at the beginning of the month to the low 30s by the end of the month.   Our hottest temperature on record in October in Wausau is 91 degrees established on October 1st, 1976.  The coldest is 8 degrees on October 30th, 1925.  Wow!

The normal rainfall for the month is 2.94″ while the normal snowfall is 1.40″.  The three wettest October days on record for Wausau are:  the 3rd of 1900 with 4.6″ of rain, the 6th of 1911 with 3.05″, and the 30th of 1935 with 2.0″.  The snowiest three October days on record in Wausau are:  the 10th of 1990 with 9.8″ of snow, the 21st of 2002 with 7.8″, and the 24th of 1933 with 4.8″ of snow.  It’s interesting how the two snowiest days are in the last two decades.

OCTOBER  FORECAST

The Climate Prediction Center is indicating a cooler than normal October from North Dakota east through the Great Lakes stretching south all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.  They suggest it should be warmer than normal in the western third of the nation, along with Alaska.

As far as precipitation goes, above normal amounts are projected from the Great Lakes through New England along with a strip down the East Coast to Florida.  Dry conditions are expected to dominate the western sliver of the country.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Fall

The National Weather Service will have a freeze watch in effect for much of the region on Saturday night.  Temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday morning could dip into the 20’s or 30’s.  This will put an end to the growing season in many places that have not yet seen frost. 

A Freeze Watch is issued when below freezing temperatures are possible.

So far most of Wisconsin, Iowa, southern Minnesota, eastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraskahave freeze watches in place for Saturday night. 

The National Weather Service in Green Bay announced Friday it will no longer be issuing freeze and frost advisories after this weekend for the northern third of the state.  That’s because the Northwoods has already experienced several freezes. 

For a look at the nationwide weather hazards map (freeze watches are bright navy blue) follow this link: http://www.weather.gov/.

Posted under Environment, Fall, Freeze, Nature, Seasonal Items, Weather NEws

Crisp nights, rustling dry leaves, the smell of corn and goldenrod fill the nostrils…it can only mean that we are weaving through September.  September is of course the month summer yields to Autumn gradually.  Our daylight time shrinks by 90 minutes.  As the sun gets lower in the sky our average temperatures drop by about 10 degrees throughout the month.  The normal high starts out around 74 on September 1st in the Wausau area but tumbles to 64 degrees by the last day.  This isn’t to say that it can’t get very warm or even hot once in awhile.  In fact on September 10th, 1931 we had our hottest September day on record in Wausau with a sizzling 99 degrees reported. 

The warmest mean temperature for the month occurred in 1908 in Wausau with 65.8 degrees.  The normal monthly mean is 58.5 degrees.  The coolest mean September temperature in Wausau happened in 1918 coming in at 51.3 degrees.  The coldest low temperature in the books for Wausau in this particular month is 18 degrees, registered on September 30th, 1899.

It is common to have some frost show up throughout the month in various parts of the state.  The median date of the first 32 degree temperature is September 20th  – 26th  in much of north central Wisconsin.  In a strip from Wausau to Stevens Point it is September 27th – October 3rd according to the State Climatology Office.  Meanwhile areas around Price, Vilas, Oneida, Forest, Florence, and parts of Lincoln and Langlade Counties often have frost show up earlier in September.  Also cranberry bogs around Wood, Jackson, and Monroe Counties also tend to see 32 degree temperatures several weeks sooner on those clear, calm nights.

The Wausau area’s wettest September belongs to 1986 when 9.79″ of rain fell.   Just a few years ago it was pretty wet as well.  In September 2010 we had 8.41″ of rain in Wausau, which is good for 5th wettest on record.  On the other end of the spectrum, the driest September on record is from 2009 when just 0.23″ of rain coated the area.   More recently, 2008 featured the 8th driest September in Wausau as only 1.33″ of rain fell.

Some of you will cringe at just the mention of snow this early, however it is interesting to note that the most snow on record in Wausau came in 1942 when 2.0″ accumulated.  We had a trace of snow as recently as 1995 in Wausau.

Have a great month!

Posted under Fall, Freeze, Monthly Recap, Seasonal Items

While I didn’t see many deer out in the woods Saturday, I sure was giving a show by a gang of rambunctious red squirrels.  I’ve been hunting for over 25 years and I can honestly say I’ve never seen so many red squirrels in a small area before at the same time!   There were 8 of them within 30 yards of my stand. I had no more been in my tree stand for 15 minutes when the little cute critters were scurrying around in the dry leaves, wrestling each other, racing up and down trees, and making their characteristic chatter.  This circus continued for a good two hours. 

At one point a particularly brave red squirrel climbed right up the tree I was sitting in.  It got to about 4 feet below my stand and just looked at me.  I tried to wave it away but it insisted on figuring out who I was.  Its big bushy tail danced back and forth with excitement.  That is definitely the closest a squirrel has ever come to me without being frightened apparently.  It held its position for at least a few minutes before it jumped to another tree and carried on. 

I particularly enjoyed watching when one squirrel would chase another up a big tree trunk in a corkscrew pattern.  They looked like they were being wound around a coil!  It’s amazing how nimble, quick, and coordinated they are.  It was fun watching them take breaks while nibbling on some corn cobs that they dragged in from the nearby field.  The way they sit on their back legs with back straight up is sort of humorous. 

They made so much noise it was a distraction from hearing potential “deer noises.”  Oh so it goes.  You never know what to expect in the woods do you?  While I didn’t get my deer, I did reconnect with the wonders of nature.  It was a great reminder that beyond the thoughts, business, and problems of human life there is a whole thriving other world locked in the forests and fields.  All that is truly a blessing from our good Lord.

Posted under Ecology, Fall, Nature

I’ve recently harvested about an acre of sunflowers and field corn in my yard.  It’s great to have a nice stockpile of feed for my chickens now.  However it leaves me with a huge pile of stalks to deal with.  Last year I left the pile to rot over winter.  The only problem with that approach is that it attracted rodents like mice and muskrats to burrow in a make a winter home.

So this year I’m burning my crop residue piles along with some tree branches that I had cut off earlier in the year.  While I don’t entirely like sending smoke and carbon dioxide up into the sky it might be my best option.  Seeing the big ash pile left behind from my bonfire got me thinking.  What will the ash do to my soil?    Will it help it or hurt it in terms of fertility, pH, and overall health.

Well I consulted several resources and opinions vary.  In general ash will add nutrients like phosphorous, calcium, and carbon to the soil.  However it will also increase the pH noticeably, especially pure wood ash.  This is a good thing if you have very acidic soil, not so good if you have neutral or alkaline soil.  Also it’s not good if you have acidic loving plants like blueberries and azaleas.  I read one study that suggested that in the short term ash from wheat stubble can increase nitrogen in the soil.  However if done year after year, it would result in a net decrease in nitrogen in the soil.  One gardener claimed that ash could reduce or even eliminate slugs around your plants.  Then there were those with the opinion that ash will hurt your garden no matter what.  I don’t have enough experience with it to say with conviction that this is flat out wrong.  So at this point, I’ll tread cautiously and spread it very thinly to reduce any harmful side effects.

MONARCH BUTTERFLY SIGHTING ON OCTOBER 19TH.

On a different note, I  saw something odd this morning.  There was a monarch butterfly sitting on the ground near my shed slowly flapping its wings.  I don’t recall seeing them this late in the season.  I assume that they should have migrated away to warmer regions by now?  I felt sorry for it.  It just looked slow and stunned in the strong wind and 38 degree air.  I moved it into a bush out of the wind, hoping it would perk up a bit.  It actually did flap its wings a little faster then.  If any of you have comments on monarch butterflies in Wisconsin in late October, I’d love to hear from you.

Posted under Ecology, Environment, Fall

The last 10 days have been extraordinarily pleasant in our region as you know.  High temperatures have been 15 to 20 degrees above normal.   Through October 10th, we’ve had 8 days in a row with highs above 70 degrees in the Wausau area.  So just how unusual is this?

Well, if you just look at last October you might conclude that it happens every year.  In October 2010, we had a stretch very similar to this, early in the month, where we reached 70 degrees or better on 7 consecutive days.  Now there is a shot that the current stretch we are in could extend 2 more days, making it 10 days in a row.  We are forecasting highs close to 70 through Wednesday.  I can assure you though, that these long exceptionally warm spells are very unusual for October in Wisconsin.

Look at the data below.  Since 1996, most Octobers only have streaks of 1 to 5 consecutive days of such warm weather.

OCTOBER HOT STREAKS (# of consecutive days with 70+ degrees)

•  2011     8+?
•  2010    7
•  2009    0
• 2008     3
• 2007     5
• 2006     3
• 2005     5
• 2004     1
• 2003     5
• 2002     1
• 2001      2
• 2000     2
• 1999      1
• 1998      1
• 1997     4
• 1996     2

Again, last year had the closest stretch to what we have achieved this October.  It’s interesting to note that we had a moderate to strong La Nina developing last fall and La Nina is developing again this fall.  It’s possible that this has been a contributor to these summer encores.

Posted under Fall, Heat, Weather NEws

I like to keep a mental yardstick of how the sun looks at different times of the year and what that usually means for how it feels outside.  Of course here in early October, the sun’s maximum angle off the horizon at midday is just under 45 degrees, about the same that it is in early March.  We have less than 12 hours of daylight per day at these times.  Yet the weather is usually drastically different in early October compared to early March.  It’s a rare thing to get above 50 or 60 degrees in early March, and it’s usually about 40-45 degrees.   Yet in early October the old thermometer on a sunny day with a mild air mass around can easily produce 70 degrees with 80 not too much of a stretch with a sustained south or southwest flow for a few days.  Normally we hover around 60 at least in early October.

This contrast tells us that you can’t just rely on the angle of the sun off the horizon to predict temperature.  Remember in early March the ground is normally snow covered and frozen in Wisconsin.  A white landscape doesn’t absorb very much of the incoming solar radiation.  Rather it reflects a good portion of it back into space.  Even in those cases where the ground is bare in March, the soil temperature is probably in the upper 20s to upper 30s and is either frozen or really waterlogged.  Thus much of the sun’s energy goes into trying to warm the ground or evaporate moisture and not so much the air.

In addition frozen lakes or cold water on the Great Lakes in early March has some bearing on temperatures as well.  There might be days where it could get fairly warm but then winds coming in off the cold Great Lakes for example can keep it 10 or 15 degrees lower than you would expect.

Finally we have to factor in the ”lag time” of how the atmosphere works when dealing with temperature.   There are larqe pools of warm air from late summer drifting across the northern hemisphere in early October.   The oceans are quite warm yet too.  Our temperatures benefit from these heat sources as weather systems drag that warm air our way.   The reverse is true in early spring.  There is a lot of residual cold air from winter swirling across the northern hemisphere in early March yet.  The oceans are still cool too.  Fronts easily push the cold air into Wisconsin.

Well enjoy the summerlike temperatures we have now, because based on how low the sun is getting in the sky, we know they won’t be here too much longer!

Posted under Fall, Science, Seasonal Items

October usually is the last month of the year that features some spells of “summer-like” warmth in Wisconsin.  The latest date of reaching 80 degrees in Wausau is October 27th.  That happened in 1927.  It’s a month that gets darker and darker as we lose about 90 minutes of daylight.  This fact and the lowering sun angle causes the normal high temperature to drop from 62 degrees to 49 degrees from the start of the month to the finish of the month in the Wausau area.  The normal low temperature falls from 49 to 31.  The hottest October day was 91 degrees on October 1st, 1927.  The coldest October temperature recorded in Wausau is 8 degrees from October 30th, 1925.

The normal monthly precipitation for the Wausau area is 2.94″.  We have had several extremely wet days though in October history.  The wettest are:  Oct. 3rd, 1900 with 4.6″ followed by the 6th of 1911 with 3.05″ of rain, followed by the 30th of 1935 with 2.0″.  As far as snow goes, we typically receive just under 1.0″ of monthly snowfall in October.  However we have had several heavy snow days in history.  The top one was October 10th, 1990 when 9.8″ fell.  Next is October 21st, 2002 when we were coated with 7.8″ of the white stuff.  The 3rd biggest daily snowfall was the 4.8″ that accumulated on the October 24th, 1933.

So be prepared for some summer-like weather and potentially winter-like weather during the great month of October in Wisconsin.

Posted under Fall, Records