The Fire Weather Watch includes the entire TV-9 viewing area

According to the National Weather Service, a Fire Weather Watch is issued when “critical fire weather conditions may occur.  A combination of strong winds, very low relative humidity and dry fuels may create dangerous wildland fire conditions.” 

These are exactly the kind of conditions we are anticipating on Easter Sunday.  Relative humidity values are forecast to be as low as 23 percent.  Wind gusts may top 35 to 40 miles an hour and there is no shortage of dry material on the ground right now. 

The Fire Weather Watch will become active on Sunday afternoon and is set to expire on Sunday evening.  During this time conditions will be primed for wildfires to be able to start relatively easily and spread fast.  The watch includes all counties in the TV-9 viewing area, and nearly the entire state of Wisconsin. 

You should take extreme care not to burn outdoors and watch “little things” like cigarettes, even small common-place items can set fires easily.

Posted under Ecology, Environment, Fire

Tens of thousands of acres have already been burnt.

Since we have seen a good deal of clouds, spotty showers and cool temperatures over the past few days thanks to a stubborn upper-level low pressure system, the wildfire in Minnesota has fallen out of the headlines.

But what ever happened to it?

The Pagami Creek Wildfire burning in the arrowhead of Minnesota not far from the Ontario border quickly became the talk of the town a few weeks back.  Many people across Central Wisconsin could smell and see the haze when northwesterly winds pushed the smoke in our direction.

Despite the cool and wet weather that wildfire is still burning, and according to the Superior National Forest website is still only 45% contained.

The wildfire has been burning for well over a month.  Started by a lightning strike on August 18th, the Pagami Creek Fire has torched 93,459 acres so far.

For updated reports on the progress firefighters are making on the blaze, check out the Superior National Forest Incident Information System website for more details.

Posted under Community, Environment, Fire, Nature, Seasonal Items, Uncategorized, Weather NEws

There is a big change in the weather today but the thing everyone is talking about is the smoke from the Minnesota wildfire. Tony mentioned it in a blog post recently and here is a link to an animation showing some of the smoke. Wildfires are quite typical in Canada and the Western U.S. every year and we do observe some of that smoke from time-to-time but most times it is not close enough to smell. The Pagami Creek fire ongoing in Minnesota is close enough that is smells like a campfire is burning right here in the office. It makes me want to take a vacation camping in the woods – just not in a spot with a wildfire. The cold air advection behind the cold front (that moved through last night) is also keeping the smoky air closer to the surface. The wind will turn more westerly this afternoon and early evening so that should take the smell away, but later tonight and tomorrow the wind will be out of the northwest again and might usher the smoke straight through our area.

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Besides wildfires, hurricanes, and blasts of cool air dominating the headlines this time of year, another item that catches attention in September is the amount of arctic sea ice. It has been predicted the arctic sea ice will disappear during the Summer within the next decade or two – due to anthropogenic global warming (AGW), and it will be devastating to the arctic region, and it will eventually mean the end of the biosphere, and many more bad things. Because of the various predictions, people watch the amount of ice quite closely to see if it keeps getting lower. 2007 was the year with the lowest amount of ice measured since 1979, when comprehensive instrumental monitoring began. There is other evidence, human and natural records, indicating that the arctic has been substantially ice free in the recent past (since the last ice age).

According to the NSIDC, this year will probably end up tying the recent record (2007) for the lowest extent of arctic sea ice. Prior to this year, the amount of Summer ice had been staying at or slightly above the 2007 record. If the gradual trend of warmer temps continues (whether by AGW or other natural forces) then I would expect the sea ice extent to get a little lower each year.

In other ice news, at least one ice expert was shocked at how much ice melted from a notable glacier in northwest Greenland. You can see the before and after pictures here. Apparently the area within the picture is quite large and to see it in person would be much more impressive. The pictures probably do not do it justice. Anyway, I wasn’t too shocked by the pictures, although I think it would be cool to see it in person. I have never been to Greenland.

Medvezhiy Glacier in Tajikistan

While many glaciers around the world are in retreat, it does not mean they do not grow or advance from time-to-time. Take a look at how dramatic the movement of the Medvezhiy glacier in Tajikistan has been. It has moved more in the last couple months than in the last 22 years.

Whether more ice is melting or not, the effect are not always what one might assume. As I noted a couple weeks back, the global sea level actually went down by quite a bit last year. It is likely a short term drop, but it reminds us that things do not always proceed in a linear fashion.

In any case, research has shown that sea levels can change quite abruptly while responding to cues from the climate, so the future will likely continue to surprise.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Arctic climate, Climate Change, Environment, Fire

Happy 4th of July!

The 4^th of July means celebrating our country’s history, enjoying the outdoors with family and of course, fireworks.  As we approach the 4^th of July holiday millions of Americans will be grabbing a lawn chair to take in the sights and sounds of a nearby fireworks display.  When it comes to the weather, for many people all they care about when going to a fireworks show is if it will rain or not. 

Though rain can hinder a show from the spectator perspective, it’s not the biggest player when it comes to a successful fireworks show.  According to the reports I’ve seen by people who organize firework demonstrations, rain doesn’t impact a firecracker’s explosion.  So I got to thinking, if rain doesn’t mess things up, what kind of atmospheric conditions can make a good fireworks show a great one?  So I cruised around the web to see what manufacturers had to say and boiled it down to four main areas.     

Wind: You’re looking for the happy medium.  Too much wind (20-30 mph range) is dangerous—remember you’re lighting something on fire that can travel!  But having no wind isn’t best either.  Without the wind clearing the smoke, your view will begin to cloud up rather quickly.   Plus you can’t forget about direction.  You want winds blowing in the opposite direction of your spectators!  I remember as a kid watching a fireworks display in Pennsylvania where the winds changed mid-show blowing hot particles towards the spectators instead of away.  Let’s just say that it caused more than one person to scramble out of the way.

 Humidity: This apparently plays a big role in how we perceive a show.  Conditions that are quite humid are not the best for going to see fireworks.  A saturated atmosphere tends to cut back on the colors we see when the firework goes off.  The less muggy it is, the more vivid the colors become when the firework explodes. 

 Rain: Though from the spectator point of view rain makes or breaks a show, from the technical standpoint rain can’t extinguish or stop a firework.  Sparklers burn at the temperature of nearly 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit so keeping them away from your skin is more important than dodging a rain drop. 

 Prevailing Conditions:  The reason so many 4^th of July firework celebrations have been cancelled around the country this year is the risk of fire!  Dry, ready-to-burn wooded areas are a bad combination when mixed with fireworks for all the obvious reasons.

 This weekend we’ve had some excellent weather for getting outside, and weather that is also fairly conducive to putting on a good fireworks show.  Humidity levels have been down this weekend, there’s no rain expected until Tuesday, winds have been fairly light and there’s no severe fire risk conditions posted.  So get outside and enjoy this nice stretch of weather and celebrate the 4^th of July!   

For a list of local firework demonstrations, check the WAOW Community Calendar.

Posted under Community, Environment, Fire, Nature, Science, Seasonal Items, Summer, Travel

News reports and social networking websites in Arizona have been buzzing this week over the smell of smoke.

Wildfires are commonplace in the desert southwest.  But right now the winds are pushing the smoke from the Arizona fires away from the state. 

So how come people are complaining of smelling smoke?   

To find the answer you’ve got to look to our ”neighbours” to the north in Canada.  According to Environment Canada, there are at least 80 wildfires ripping across Alberta right now.  The province’s fires are prompting evacuations, slowing the country’s crude oil production and impacting Arizona, all thanks to the winds. 

The general wind flow over North America is from west to east.  But dips in the jet stream, storm systems, and a laundry list of other natural factors can cause changes in wind flow. 

What’s happening in Arizaon is just another example. 

Looking at satallite images, you can trace the smoke from the Canadian fires moving along the US West Coast and then banking into Arizona.  Incredible!

The wind is pretty amazing when you consider what impact it can have.  You’ll recall during the height of Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster when trace particles of nuclear material were found in the United States after the earthquake and tsunami? 

The same principle applies with volcanoes.  When major volcanoes erupt, the ash they throw into the atmosphere travels with the wind flow and moves around the globe. 

1816 is known as “The Year Without a Summer.”  Why? In 1815 a huge volcano erupted sending incredible amounts of ash into the atmosphere.  It circled the globe and along with a few other factors (like an unusually low amount of solar output that year) cooled the earth’s surface temperature. 

It got so cold that measurable snowfall fell in the middle of the summer in New York, Maine, Quebec and Connecticut!    

Everything travels with the wind.  We can even see sand blowing from the deserts of Africa travel across the Atlantic into the Caribbean! 

So though it might sound strange, hard to believe or too crazy to be true, the wind can do some really amazing things.  What happens in one part of the world truly does impact us all!

Posted under Environment, Fire, International Weather, Science, Seasonal Items, Weather History, Weather NEws, World Weather

As expected, some heavy snow developed in the area yesterday. The only unexpected part was that the snow did not make it as far north as forecast. The heaviest band of snow was south of Marathon county. The snow ended up breaking records for most largercities around central Wisconsin including Wisconsin Rapids, Stevens Point, and Wausau. The highest amount reported in the state so far is Green Bay with 10.1 inches. Here are some of the reports:

More snow will accumulate today but it will only be a dusting up to an inch. Even with cloudy skies and cool temps, much of the snow will melt later this afternoon. It will mostly be gone by tomorrow afternoon with more sunshine and high temps in the upper 40s. The weekend is still looking ok with highs near 50 on Saturday and in the mid to upper 50s on Sunday.

Texas grass fires

One nice aspect of the ample snow and rain so far this Spring is that the fire risk is low. Typically in Wisconsin, one of the months with the highest incidence of fires is April. This is because plants do not green up completely until May. When there is a lack of precipitation in April, the old leaves and debris from the last growing season provides plenty of fuel for wildfires. This year, it looks like the landscape will remain damp over the next week or two while the plants slowly “green-up”. This should lead to continued low wildfire risk. So while you are complaining about the ugly weather today, just be thankful we don’t have the opposite, like what is happening in Texas. The picture showcased here is of the wildfires in west Texas.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Fire, Snow Totals

The Four-Mile Canyon Fire in Colorado continues to grow into the evening.  High winds up to 50 mph have now put the Boulder City Limits in danger.  Residents there are on stand-by for further evacuations.

According to the Denver Post, as of this morning the fire was as large as 6365 acres and is 30% contained.  The fire has burned down 169 homes.  And currently there are roughly 500 firefighters fighting the blaze.

From my time I’ve lived in Colorado, I am very familiar with this area.  I would say the Boulder area is one of, if not, my favorite place in Colorado.  I consider it the perfect blend of urban and nature.  I’ve been watching this fire very closely and have found some very good video via youtube.com.

The first video is from popular Pearl Street right in the heart of Boulder as smoke billows overhead.

And check out how far this smoke plume stretches.

The best video I’ve found is probably this nighttime time lapse of the fire.

…And lastly what looks to be some up close amateur coverage.

For more coverage of the Boulder Wildfire check out the news outlets below…

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/index.html

http://www.denverpost.com/

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Fire

Have you guys seen the video of the ‘fire tornado’ which formed in Brazil a few days ago..

Check it out…  Brazil Fire Tornado  …pretty crazy huh.?.?..

Technically, of course, this not an actual tornado.  The swirling column of air has to be attached to a cloud base in order to be a tornado.  But it’s a cool name for a cool phenomenon.  The ‘Fire Tornado’ also has other names like a “Fire whirl” and a “Fire Devil.”  The “Fire Devil” is probably the best name because it’s formation is very similar to a dust devil.  It forms when there is a typical wind eddy present, just like when you see a swirl of leaves.  This swirl rapidly intensifies when it interacts with the extreme heat from fire.  The heat from the fire creates a very strong updraft, which creates a rotating vertical column of air and fire.  The crazy part…”Fire Tornadoes” can have winds up to 100 mph!!!

Here are a couple other videos of “Fire Tornadoes”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1hczOv4DeI&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbwfNSLshW8&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Fw1qiAld2U&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0vN0iz-Y_8

*Here is an additional write up on Fire Tornadoes if you are interested*

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Drought, Fire

What a difference a day makes.  A cold front moved through yesterday and we are seeing a complete change today.  Temps are much cooler, near 10 to 15 degrees compared to yesterday.  We also saw dewpoints drop about the same.  It really feels like fall outside.  I can’t believe we are half way through August so Sept is really knocking on our door, which to me, kicks off Fall.  We are also seeing very strong winds.  We have a strong low in Canada and a high pressure over the Central Plains.  This is causing a tight pressure gradient which kicks up the winds.  This pattern, cooler and breezy, will continue into the earlier part of the week. 

Does this mean summer is done? I don’t think so.  It looks like a few 80′s are still possible this week, midweek and end of the weekend.  I also this week might see a warm up for the beginning of next week.  If you remember last year, Sept was actually near as warm as the summer months! In fact it was near 5 degrees above the normal high.  Here is a break down:

                      Avg High    Dep. from Normal

June 2009    73.9                 -2.8

July 2009     75.3                 -5.5

Aug 2009      75.2                -3.1

Sept 2009      73.5               +4.5 

I wanted to share this article.  We have blogged a few times about Moscow’s summer.  I know that I mentioned the fires that they have been seeing and they are still causing major issues.  The smoke plume that has formed from the fires is now 1860 miles wide!  If this was placed over the United States it would expand from Chicago to San Francisco! They first captured the plume on Aug 4th.  This is a real serious issue for Russia because the fires are causing major health risks.  Carbon monoxide levels are 5 times what they should be!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Environment, Fire, forecast, Records, Science, Summer

The wind has been a major issue that past few days.  It can not only be annoying but is all affecting our fire danger.  Although the Red Flag Warning expired we are still under extreme fire danger.  For your area you can check out this link to fire danger. Every county in our area is under very high or extreme danger. 

Unfortunately I think we will stay that way for several days because there is only a slight chance of showers in the week ahead.  The winds will calm down but the dry and warm weather will still aid in easy spreading of any fire that is started. 

Speaking of high winds hear are some of the gusts reported across our area.

Arbor Vitae 43 mph

Wausau 41 mph

Marshfield 41 mph

Antigo 40 mph

Land O Lakes 39 mph

Necedah 39 mph

Tomahawk 39 mph

Eagle River 38 mph

Volk Field 38 mph

Wisconsin Dells 35 mph

Wautoma 35 mph

Medford 33 mph

This is just a sample of the winds around the area.  For the complete list you can check out this link.

The winds will calm down for the rest of the weekend.  We will see beautiful days over the next 3.  A few clouds will move in for mid week with a weak front moving through.  Hopefully we can pick up a shower with its passage unfortunately models are not looking convincing at seeing anything but a light shower. 

Please be careful and avoid burning if you can at all costs.  Also the previous blog entries about the meteor and volcano are great topics to check out. 

Have a good night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Drought, Fire, forecast