The pattern of extreme changes continues this spring.  Perhaps you heard about the huge ice shoves this past weekend that pushed mega piles of ice off Lake Mille Lacs in Minnesota.  Homes and property on the southeast shore were damaged heavily as 35 mph northwesterly winds piled the floating up onto shore like a moving glacier.   You can watch the ice in action from the following link.  http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/ice-needle-shoves-surges-terrorize-great-lakes/12337031

Also a lake west of Winnipeg in Manitoba piled up ice 27 feet deep into some homes.  That is one of the weirdest natural disasters I can think of.  The wind that produced the ice pile ups was part of a deep trough of low pressure north of Lake Superior which drove the very chilly weather down into Wisconsin this past weekend.  Of course we had several record low temperatures Sunday night across Wisconsin.    The cold air is moving east.  In fact frost and freeze advisories were posted Monday night from portions of North Carolina northward to Maine.

Meanwhile red flag warnings have been posted into Tuesday in an area from Montana Iowa and Minnesota.  An intense burst of heat that originated in the Desert Southwest of the U.S. is shooting northeast across the country.  Highs could be close to 100 around Omaha, NE with 90s into southern Minnesota.  This coupled with low humidity, gusty winds, sunshine, and dry fuels will make for dangerous fire conditions.  Burning is prohibited and residents are asked to avoid any activities that could lead to sparks.

Red Flag Warnings are Pink. Frost and Freeze Warnings in Eastern U.S. in blue.

Just maybe the weather patterns will settle into something closer to normal over the next few weeks.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out.  The cold air intrusions have to run out sooner or later.  By the way we are getting to the point where gardeners wonder if we have seen the last frost for the season.  The average last frost date across Wisconsin varies from late April near Lake Michigan to early June in some northern areas.  So we are certainly getting a little safer from the cold with each passing day.

Posted under Fire, Freeze, Gardening, Heat, Natural Disasters, Records, Seasonal Items, Spring

October 8th is the sad anniversary of the deadliest forest fire on record in North American, the Peshtigo Fire of northeast Wisconsin in 1871.  It actually was a series of fires that devastated areas from well southwest of Peshtigo all the way northeast into parts of southern Upper Michigan.  It even skipped across the Bay of Green Bay and charred parts of Kewaunee and Door Counties.   The final death toll is astounding, somewhere between 1200 and 2400 according to most sources.  This is also the anniversary of a Great Chicago Fire that killed around 200.  Anyway, about 1.2 million acres were burned in Wisonsin, and 2.5 million acres burned in Upper Michigan on that horrible evening.

The main conditions that led to the Peshtigo Fire were a prolonged and severe drought, unusually warm temperatures, and strong winds.  Gusty southwest winds were racing up into Wisconsin on October 8th, 1871 because of the pressure gradient around a strong low pressure system centered near Colorado and Nebraska.  On the weather map from the U.S. Weather Bureau from that date, you’ll notice a lot of black lines in a ring around that low pressure area.  The are isobars, or measure of air pressure.  And the tighter they are packed, the stronger the winds generally will be.  Wisconsin was on the warmer side of the storm with the south to southwest air flow.

Of course there were other important factors involved including farming and logging practices of the day, and many piles of cut trees and brush near railroad lines, along with many stockpiles of saw dust and logs near the saw mills.  So once the fire began, there was a tremendous amount of dry fuel to consume.

There are some incredible stories and accounts of how the fires behaved and how people tried to save themselves.  Please visit the following web sites for in depth information on the Peshtigo Fire.   You could also visit the Peshtigo Fire Museum in Peshtigo (400 Oconto Avenue, Peshtigo, WI 54157).  Phone 715-582-3244.

http://www.peshtigofire.info/

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grb/?n=peshtigofire

http://www.wisconsincentral.net/Culture/Culture/PeshtigoFire.html

Posted under Fall, Fire, Natural Disasters, Weather History

A recent study published in the journal Nature, shows a strong link between El Nino and increased air pollution in Indonesia to the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand.  This is because during an El Nino, rainfall is typically lighter than normal in that part of the world.  Farmers in the region thus increase the use of fire to burn and clear the land for agriculture in El Nino years.  The additional pollution is believed to be responsible for as many as 15,000 fatalities in El Nino years.

The study which was conducted jointly by Columbia University and NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies used emissions estimates taken from satellite measurements from 1997 to 2006.  They fed the data into atmospheric chemistry models to plot out air pollution for the region.  

For example during the strong El Nino of 1997, their analysis showed that there was a jump in the amount of fine particles in the atmosphere exceeding World Health Organization standards by 300% for at least 200 days of the year.  Ozone levels, a component of smog,  also increased substantially.  In comparison, during the La Nina episode in 2000, the level of carbon particulates was 98% lower than in 1997.  La Nina provides enhanced rainfall for Indonesia and southeast Asia.

The region is home to over half a billion people.  Furthermore the researchers found that even though most of the burning occurs in rural areas such as Sumatra and Bornea, the impacts are great even well away in large cities such as Singapore and Kuala Lumpur.  Carbon particulates are of most concern, as the are linked to heart disease.  The study concludes of the 15,000 deaths contributed to this fire pollution in El Nino years, around 10,000 would come from carbon exposure, with the ozone responsible for as many as 5,000.  Smog, containing oz0ne is hard on the respiratory system, especially for those with pre-existing conditions.

Posted under Ag Weather, Ecology, Environment, Fire, International Weather, Pollution

The National Weather Service has released some incredible photos of the wildfires impacting the western United States. 

In the included photo you can see what six wildfires in Montana and Wyoming look like from space.  The photos are from the MODIS satellite that snaps photos of our planet as it orbits Earth.

Photo from the National Weather Service.

In the photo you can see the distinction between smoke and clouds quite clearly.  In the photo, clouds look like a collection of cotton balls.  They are a more true white color and limited more toward the northern half of the photo.  The smoke can be identified by its grayish color, texture and shape.  The prevailing winds push the smoke to drift eastward over the landscape. 

This has been a very rough wildfire season so far. Colorado is seeing some astonishingly destructive fires that are encroaching on cities like Colorado Springs. 

Weather obviously plays an enormous role in how wildfires act.  Wind can blow embers from one fire and create a new one in an entirely different location.  Low humidity keeps the atmosphere dry and primes the landscape for kindling. 

Even when thunderstorms develop over wildfires it’s often a curse instead of a blessing.  Dry air is able to work into the storms, so essentially all you get is gusty winds, lightning and very little rain.  The wind helps fan the flames and lightning can get more going.

Though the west is known best for wildfires, we can, have and do get wildfires here.  Be sure to take caution, especially with the 4^th of July holiday approaching on open flames and fireworks when outdoors. 

For a color coded map of all ofWisconsin’s counties that details the wildfire risk, follow this link from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources: http://dnr.wi.gov/topic/ForestFire/restrictions.asp.

Posted under Clouds, Drought, Environment, Fire, Heat, Natural Disasters, Nature, new media, Science, Space, Summer, Weather History, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Wind

The new dual polarization upgrade to National Weather Service Doppler Radars is already showing some benefits.  It has been picking up hail quite nicely and now we have an example of it detecting a smoke plume in our area well.  On May 21st, a prescribed burn was in progress in the Necedah Wildlife Refuge.  A large smoke plume drifted southeast from the site and the La Crosse NWS radar detected it.  They used one of the new tools that dual-polarization offers, called correlation coefficient.  Different types of particles such as rain, hail, and smoke have typical values associated with them.  You can see an animated loop of the smoke plume being detected on dual-pol radar from this link.  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=arx&storyid=83326&source=0

RECORD WARM SPRING IN PROGRESS

Through May 22nd, spring 2012 has been the warmest on record for much of the region.  The average temperature so far for Wausau is 49.3 degrees, beating the old warmest 1977 when it was 47.9 degrees.  The 3rd warmest spring in Wausau is from 1998 with an average of 46.7 degrees.  Green Bay is also having its warmest.  Spring 2012 in Rhinelander has been the second warmest on record as 44.9 degrees.  This is just behing the average from 1977 when it was 45.5 degrees.  Let’s hope we get a decent amount of rain the rest of spring to go along with that warmth!

Posted under Fire, Records, Spring, Technology, Weather NEws

The Fire Weather Watch includes the entire TV-9 viewing area

According to the National Weather Service, a Fire Weather Watch is issued when “critical fire weather conditions may occur.  A combination of strong winds, very low relative humidity and dry fuels may create dangerous wildland fire conditions.” 

These are exactly the kind of conditions we are anticipating on Easter Sunday.  Relative humidity values are forecast to be as low as 23 percent.  Wind gusts may top 35 to 40 miles an hour and there is no shortage of dry material on the ground right now. 

The Fire Weather Watch will become active on Sunday afternoon and is set to expire on Sunday evening.  During this time conditions will be primed for wildfires to be able to start relatively easily and spread fast.  The watch includes all counties in the TV-9 viewing area, and nearly the entire state of Wisconsin. 

You should take extreme care not to burn outdoors and watch “little things” like cigarettes, even small common-place items can set fires easily.

Posted under Ecology, Environment, Fire

Tens of thousands of acres have already been burnt.

Since we have seen a good deal of clouds, spotty showers and cool temperatures over the past few days thanks to a stubborn upper-level low pressure system, the wildfire in Minnesota has fallen out of the headlines.

But what ever happened to it?

The Pagami Creek Wildfire burning in the arrowhead of Minnesota not far from the Ontario border quickly became the talk of the town a few weeks back.  Many people across Central Wisconsin could smell and see the haze when northwesterly winds pushed the smoke in our direction.

Despite the cool and wet weather that wildfire is still burning, and according to the Superior National Forest website is still only 45% contained.

The wildfire has been burning for well over a month.  Started by a lightning strike on August 18th, the Pagami Creek Fire has torched 93,459 acres so far.

For updated reports on the progress firefighters are making on the blaze, check out the Superior National Forest Incident Information System website for more details.

Posted under Community, Environment, Fire, Nature, Seasonal Items, Uncategorized, Weather NEws

There is a big change in the weather today but the thing everyone is talking about is the smoke from the Minnesota wildfire. Tony mentioned it in a blog post recently and here is a link to an animation showing some of the smoke. Wildfires are quite typical in Canada and the Western U.S. every year and we do observe some of that smoke from time-to-time but most times it is not close enough to smell. The Pagami Creek fire ongoing in Minnesota is close enough that is smells like a campfire is burning right here in the office. It makes me want to take a vacation camping in the woods – just not in a spot with a wildfire. The cold air advection behind the cold front (that moved through last night) is also keeping the smoky air closer to the surface. The wind will turn more westerly this afternoon and early evening so that should take the smell away, but later tonight and tomorrow the wind will be out of the northwest again and might usher the smoke straight through our area.

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Besides wildfires, hurricanes, and blasts of cool air dominating the headlines this time of year, another item that catches attention in September is the amount of arctic sea ice. It has been predicted the arctic sea ice will disappear during the Summer within the next decade or two – due to anthropogenic global warming (AGW), and it will be devastating to the arctic region, and it will eventually mean the end of the biosphere, and many more bad things. Because of the various predictions, people watch the amount of ice quite closely to see if it keeps getting lower. 2007 was the year with the lowest amount of ice measured since 1979, when comprehensive instrumental monitoring began. There is other evidence, human and natural records, indicating that the arctic has been substantially ice free in the recent past (since the last ice age).

According to the NSIDC, this year will probably end up tying the recent record (2007) for the lowest extent of arctic sea ice. Prior to this year, the amount of Summer ice had been staying at or slightly above the 2007 record. If the gradual trend of warmer temps continues (whether by AGW or other natural forces) then I would expect the sea ice extent to get a little lower each year.

In other ice news, at least one ice expert was shocked at how much ice melted from a notable glacier in northwest Greenland. You can see the before and after pictures here. Apparently the area within the picture is quite large and to see it in person would be much more impressive. The pictures probably do not do it justice. Anyway, I wasn’t too shocked by the pictures, although I think it would be cool to see it in person. I have never been to Greenland.

Medvezhiy Glacier in Tajikistan

While many glaciers around the world are in retreat, it does not mean they do not grow or advance from time-to-time. Take a look at how dramatic the movement of the Medvezhiy glacier in Tajikistan has been. It has moved more in the last couple months than in the last 22 years.

Whether more ice is melting or not, the effect are not always what one might assume. As I noted a couple weeks back, the global sea level actually went down by quite a bit last year. It is likely a short term drop, but it reminds us that things do not always proceed in a linear fashion.

In any case, research has shown that sea levels can change quite abruptly while responding to cues from the climate, so the future will likely continue to surprise.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Arctic climate, Climate Change, Environment, Fire

Happy 4th of July!

The 4^th of July means celebrating our country’s history, enjoying the outdoors with family and of course, fireworks.  As we approach the 4^th of July holiday millions of Americans will be grabbing a lawn chair to take in the sights and sounds of a nearby fireworks display.  When it comes to the weather, for many people all they care about when going to a fireworks show is if it will rain or not. 

Though rain can hinder a show from the spectator perspective, it’s not the biggest player when it comes to a successful fireworks show.  According to the reports I’ve seen by people who organize firework demonstrations, rain doesn’t impact a firecracker’s explosion.  So I got to thinking, if rain doesn’t mess things up, what kind of atmospheric conditions can make a good fireworks show a great one?  So I cruised around the web to see what manufacturers had to say and boiled it down to four main areas.     

Wind: You’re looking for the happy medium.  Too much wind (20-30 mph range) is dangerous—remember you’re lighting something on fire that can travel!  But having no wind isn’t best either.  Without the wind clearing the smoke, your view will begin to cloud up rather quickly.   Plus you can’t forget about direction.  You want winds blowing in the opposite direction of your spectators!  I remember as a kid watching a fireworks display in Pennsylvania where the winds changed mid-show blowing hot particles towards the spectators instead of away.  Let’s just say that it caused more than one person to scramble out of the way.

 Humidity: This apparently plays a big role in how we perceive a show.  Conditions that are quite humid are not the best for going to see fireworks.  A saturated atmosphere tends to cut back on the colors we see when the firework goes off.  The less muggy it is, the more vivid the colors become when the firework explodes. 

 Rain: Though from the spectator point of view rain makes or breaks a show, from the technical standpoint rain can’t extinguish or stop a firework.  Sparklers burn at the temperature of nearly 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit so keeping them away from your skin is more important than dodging a rain drop. 

 Prevailing Conditions:  The reason so many 4^th of July firework celebrations have been cancelled around the country this year is the risk of fire!  Dry, ready-to-burn wooded areas are a bad combination when mixed with fireworks for all the obvious reasons.

 This weekend we’ve had some excellent weather for getting outside, and weather that is also fairly conducive to putting on a good fireworks show.  Humidity levels have been down this weekend, there’s no rain expected until Tuesday, winds have been fairly light and there’s no severe fire risk conditions posted.  So get outside and enjoy this nice stretch of weather and celebrate the 4^th of July!   

For a list of local firework demonstrations, check the WAOW Community Calendar.

Posted under Community, Environment, Fire, Nature, Science, Seasonal Items, Summer, Travel

News reports and social networking websites in Arizona have been buzzing this week over the smell of smoke.

Wildfires are commonplace in the desert southwest.  But right now the winds are pushing the smoke from the Arizona fires away from the state. 

So how come people are complaining of smelling smoke?   

To find the answer you’ve got to look to our ”neighbours” to the north in Canada.  According to Environment Canada, there are at least 80 wildfires ripping across Alberta right now.  The province’s fires are prompting evacuations, slowing the country’s crude oil production and impacting Arizona, all thanks to the winds. 

The general wind flow over North America is from west to east.  But dips in the jet stream, storm systems, and a laundry list of other natural factors can cause changes in wind flow. 

What’s happening in Arizaon is just another example. 

Looking at satallite images, you can trace the smoke from the Canadian fires moving along the US West Coast and then banking into Arizona.  Incredible!

The wind is pretty amazing when you consider what impact it can have.  You’ll recall during the height of Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster when trace particles of nuclear material were found in the United States after the earthquake and tsunami? 

The same principle applies with volcanoes.  When major volcanoes erupt, the ash they throw into the atmosphere travels with the wind flow and moves around the globe. 

1816 is known as “The Year Without a Summer.”  Why? In 1815 a huge volcano erupted sending incredible amounts of ash into the atmosphere.  It circled the globe and along with a few other factors (like an unusually low amount of solar output that year) cooled the earth’s surface temperature. 

It got so cold that measurable snowfall fell in the middle of the summer in New York, Maine, Quebec and Connecticut!    

Everything travels with the wind.  We can even see sand blowing from the deserts of Africa travel across the Atlantic into the Caribbean! 

So though it might sound strange, hard to believe or too crazy to be true, the wind can do some really amazing things.  What happens in one part of the world truly does impact us all!

Posted under Environment, Fire, International Weather, Science, Seasonal Items, Weather History, Weather NEws, World Weather