Oh how things can change in just a day! Remember that storm we were talking about for Sunday night into Monday…it looks like we  are going to miss out.  Depending if you are a snow lover or a spring lover, this is good or bad news. 

 Right now it looks like we are going to completely miss out.  The storm is still developing around the four corners region but will eventuallyshoot across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and then pass across Missouri and Illinois.  This pass will keep all activity to our south here is the time period we were most concerned about Monday morning this snap shot would have been 6 am:   As you can see it barely brings anything even to the southern half of the Badger state.  These model runs have been fairly consistent the past couple runs and since the time frame is only 36 hours I am thinking that this storm will likely take more of a southerly track.  It is quite a difference compared to the runs from 24 hours ago which brought from 3 to 6 inches to areas south and east of Wausau.  As a forecaster these winter storms can be a challenge especially when we begin to talk about temps hovering around freezing and having to add in freezing rain and or sleet.  For now what is most important to note is it looks like we are going to be missing out on this storm.  It will bring severe weather and heavy rain to the Central Plains and the Ohio Valley from Sunday night to Monday night.  One favorable factor is that it is a fast moving storm.

I will keep you updated once we see the latest runs! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, Freeze, Science, Severe Weather, Snow Totals, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

Since it is on my mind because I just got off a live radio… don’t forget you can always get our weather forecast through your favorite radio stations.  We do an updated forecast for 96.7, 103.3, 106.5, and 107.9!  It is alot of fun doing the live morning hits with 96.7 and 107.9.  They all seem to really enjoy working for the radio stations and always have cleaver ideas. 

Alright so today I just wanted to share a few updates on the arctic blast across the US.  Now it is cold here, but check out compared to normal how cold it is across the entire US! It is pretty interesting that some peoples temp is actually colder then the departure from normal.  We have already broken records across Florida, and the Carolinas which is only the beginning.

Now we know it is going to stay cold for the next week just by looking at the seven day forecast.  But many times we look at the Climate Prediction Centers forecast for weeks or months beyong the general forecast.  Yesterday the CPC came out with their 8 to 14 day outlook which would predict the chance of below or above temps from the 14th through the 21st.  The same area that is seeing the cold spell this week will likely continue to see cold weather until right before Christmas.  We are sitting near the border of below normal to normal.   This being said we shouldn’t be the coldest ones relative to normal for the middle of December. 

On a slightly different but related topic….winter storms!  The NWS office came out with a write up of winter storms and what we are expecting for the 2010-2011 year.  If you look a the article a “winter storm” most consist of one of the following criteria for one or more counties in Wisconsin:

1. Snow accumulations of 6 inches or more,

2. Blizzard conditions for 3 hours or more – visibility below 1/4 mile due to falling and/or blowing snow with frequent wind gusts 35 mph or higher,

3. Ice accumulations of 1/4 inch or more in 12 hours or less due to freezing rain

4. Sleet accumulations of 2 inches or more in 12 hours or less,

5. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with sustained winds or frequent gusts of 25-34 mph and intermittent reductions in visibility to less than 1/2 mile resulting in closed roads, etc.

On average we see 12 winter storms, with 19 being the highest we have seen in a year, 4 the fewest.  When the earliest occurs is all over the board- from October, November or December.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, Freeze, Records, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

The day has finally arrived! This morning on Wake-Up Wisconsin we held the random drawing to determine who would win the top prizes in the First Snowfall Contest. We had five finalists (or should I say “super forecasters”) who correctly predicted last Wednesday the 24th of November as the date of the first inch of snowfall in Wausau. Here are the results of the drawing:

• 1st Place: Maynard Witkowski – Wittenberg. Prize: a $50 R-store gift card and one year’s worth of free car washes at the R-store.
• 2nd Place: Trisha Carley – Nekoosa. Prize: $150 R-store gift card.
• 3rd Place: Christine Schmude – Arpin. Prize: $100 R-store gift card.
• 4th Place: Cliff Michalek – Marshfield. Prize: $50 R-store gift card.
• Consolation: Beth Cutts – Wild Rose. Prize: Free car wash coupon (plus, of course, bragging rights amongst your friends)

Thanks to everyone who entered. Congratulations to the winners! Also, special thanks to the R-stores of northcentral Wisconsin for providing the wonderful prizes.

On the topic of snowfall, unfortunately for snow-lovers, the rain last night melted the 1 inch of snow that we had last Wednesday. It doesn’t look like we will have much more snow for the rest of the week either. With a few snow showers developing later this afternoon and continuing tonight and tomorrow, it might be just enough to turn the landscape a little white once again. A better chance (only 30% at this point) of accumulating snow will come over the weekend. A storm will be tracking across the mid-section of the nation and could track close enough to our area to bring a couple inches of snow. We will continue to watch this storm and refine the snowfall forecast over the next couple of days. If the storm tracks further south, then we might miss out once again.

Have a happy Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Winter Weather

I wanted to list the names of the 5 people who correctly predicted the winning date of the first snowfall contest, but there has been some trouble getting the list because of  the holidays. The online registration system requires someone to request data about the contest, such as who entered Wednesday, November 24th. Of the 5 super winning forecasters, only one sent in their predictionby snail mail and that was Maynard Witkowski of Wittenberg. I should have the rest of the names either later today or tomorrow so we should have the drawing soon. I will keep you up to date.

It might turn out to be quite fortunate that the first inch of snowfall occurred on the 24th, because not much snow has been in the forecast for the last few days and there doesn’t seem to be a threat of more than an inch of snow in Wausau again until Saturday. Most dates in December only had a couple of people predicting the first snowfall of one inch. If we continue the contest into future years, picking dates in December might make more sense, that is if anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory is substantially correct and we end up with a warmer world (and warmer winters here in Wisconsin). With respect to AGW, one aspect that is under-reported is haggling over the temperature record. The reconstruction of long term temperature trends (before humans started scientifically recording weather data) has often been criticized as imprecise or not robust. There was a small media furor recently when it was found out (or suspected) that a major climate study based temperature re-construction on tree rings from only three trees. There has also been much haggling over more recent temperature records. Anthony Watt has spent a few years analyzing where automated temperature sensors are placed. Here is a relatively recent blog post about that topic.

Site placement is but one wrinkle in getting high quality temperature records. There is also the issue of how instruments and methods of taking temperature have changed through the years. Here is an article about how ocean water temperature recording has changed and how this might affect the “official record”. You might also recall how land based temperature records showed some recent warming but satellites measured a cooling trend in the free atmosphere (above the boundary layer)

And you thought taking the temperature of the planet was the easiest part of climate science! It turns out that constructing an accurate record requires a good dose of historical and statistical knowledge.

Have a fun Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, First Snowfall 2010

Today is the day for giving thanks and the first thing I want give thanks for is freedom – the concept that we own ourselves and the fruits of our labor – that we have natural innate rights. Thanksgiving is the perfect day to recall why individual liberty and property rights are so important – because that is the REAL story of Thanksgiving.

Since this is the weather blog and I often write about technology and its relation to anthropogenic global warming (AGW), I also give thanks that environmental Armageddon has not occurred as forecast. From the beginning 1989 through the 1990s, environmental headlines and research papers were full of dire predictions of enormous warming and biosphere destruction. THANKfully, the global temperature leveled out for the last decade or so. THANKfully, through the years, global climate models (GCMs) have been refined and will hopefully provide us with more accurate guidance through future years. I have often argued that playing to hysteria and fear (always stating the worst case scenario as the true scenario) will only produce irrational decisions on how to navigate the future. Better to assess the range of possibilities and solutions to energy use and pollution than to run scared for years to come.

With that said, here are a few AGW headlines I have seen cross the wire over the last few days:

Polar bears are threatened with extinction. Biologists think that if polar bears are unable to hunt seals, that they will have to compete with grizzly bears for food. Because of a stronger skull structure in Grizzly bears, they would likely win that fight. It is interesting to note that polar bears very recently descended from brown bears and brown bears co-exist with grizzlies so I think there is hope, even if there is less sea ice in the future.

With warmer ocean temps and warmer water temps in general (in many fresh water lakes as well), one might think sea-ice would decline a bit in the future, but that might not be the case. Large land-based ice sheets are not melting as fast as once thought and have built in self-preservation mechanisms. In addition, due to the non-linear nature of climate changes, there could be outbreaks of extreme cold in the future. Just because the headlines say the earth has a temperature, don’t think that we won’t still have cold winters here in Wisconsin.

Of course some other recent research states there will be more heat (and hurricanes, and rain), but that is not the end of the story. The threshold ocean temperature for the formation of hurricanes is rising, so perhaps there will be less hurricanes in the future. Plus, we don’t quite understand how the main circulation patterns in the ocean will be affected by AGW. Altantic ocean circulation could reverse!

Scientists are still not completely sure how the earth got into long periods of extreme glaciation (the “snowball earth”), so I suppose colder temps and more ice are a possibility for the far future as well.

In a bit of good news, after the recent election it appears that cap-n-trade legislation in the U.S. is unlikely to become law. This is good news because cap-n-trade for limiting carbon emissions is probably the worst possible way to go about it – unnecessarily complex and wide open to manipulation. If something like this is going to become law, then a straight up tax is much more efficient and transparent. I think we should be using other liberty-based incentive-type programs to limit pollution, but if politicians are going to pass some new legislation, then at least they should be going with something simple.

In other good news, humans might be off the hook for the extinction of woolly mammoths. The culprit might be – you guessed it – climate change.

Lastly, I turns out we had 1.5 inches of snow in Wausau yesterday, November 24th, and that means we have 5 winners in our first snowfall contest. The winners for the top 4 prizes (R-store gift cards and car wash coupons) will be drawn on Monday on Wake-Up Wisconsin and then revealed on Tuesday.

Have a happy Thanksgiving! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Environment, First Snowfall 2010

It has been a mess of the night.  Totals around the area have been from around a half an inch to mainly 2 inches.  Right now at 8 pm we are beginning to see a change over from snow to the wintry mix.  This will only make the road conditions worse.  We have seen SEVERAL accidents around the area.  I ran out to get gas before the worst of the storm and saw at least a half a dozen cars turned or on the curb.  One of our weather interns that came in for a quick visit said he say at least a dozen cars in the ditch off 29. 

Needless to say it has been quite a messy night and especially on one of the busiest travel days of the year, just goes to figure Mother Nature is in control!  Remember if you need travel conditions you can always go to this branch of our website.  Earlier this evening Hwy 10 was closed in Wood county because of an accident.  At 8 pm on Wednesday night NO counties are under “good conditions”.  This means that everyone needs to slow down and becareful!  The first major storm is always the hardest because we all need to get back to winter driving rules.

Don’t forget we have our “First Snowfall Contest” still going.  We did measure outside out studios over an inch and if this is confirmed by the National Weather Service then today will be the lucky day.  But as the rules stated we have to go off the official record which is done by the National Weather Service.  If you picked today then stay tuned!

Since we are talking about winter I have to admit I am already excited for skiing!! Granite Peak has been making snow and they are opening this weekend but just for the weekend.  They will be closed next week and then should stay open from mainly next weekend through the season.  I am thinking my first day on the slopes will be Dec. 7th.  If you have ever heard me talk about skiing you will know that this makes me extremely excited.  We will see another chance for snow by early next week and then possibly more by late in the week.  I think if we can get the temperature to stay below freezing and we continue this active pattern we will see plenty of snow this winter.   I have to admit what has been driving me crazy is the fact we keep seeing these storms that hover around freezing and cause the wintry mix instead of straight rain or snow!

I hope everyone has a SAFE and wonderful Thanksgiving! I will be on for the next couple days so I will see you soon.

Happy Thanksgiving! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Freeze, Science, Travel, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

We are still following the development of a winter storm for later today and not much has changed in the forecast over the last 24 hours, except that I am hedging toward more snow and less rain and freezing rain. Based on the most recent data, I am leaning more toward 2 to 3 inches of snow in Marathon county and around much of central Wisconsin (instead of 1 to 2 inches). In the northwoods, many locations will be around 3 to 4 inches. Lesser amounts of snow will fall south of Stevens Point and south of highway 10. There could still be some slushy accumulations up to an inch in the far south but the roads should be much better for traveling.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect from late this afternoon through tonight for the entire viewing area except Juneau, Adams, and Monroe counties. The heaviest precipitation will be moving through between 4pm and midnight. After midnight it looks like a little freezing drizzle or flurries could linger until daybreak on Thursday but most of the day should be good for traveling for everyone going to visit family for Thanksgiving. The only problem is that it will turn colder and breezy through the day. So driving on roadways will be most difficult late this afternoon and through the evening around central and northern Wisconsin. If you are heading south in the state, it will not be as tricky. Once again it looks like the airport most likely to experience delays this afternoon through early evening will be Minneapolis.

If we end up with over an inch of snow in Wausau this evening then we will finally have our winners for the First Snowfall Contest! It turns out that 5 people predicted today’s date. If the winning date is today then we will announce the people who predicted correctly on Wake Up Wisconsin either Thursday or Friday morning and most likely hold the drawing for the top 4 prizes – gift cards and free car wash coupons from the R-stores- on Monday November 29th.

CPC December Forecast

I see that Granite Peak Ski area is busy making snow over the last couple of days (check their website to see if they will be open for a few hours this weekend) and I am sure many winter enthusiasts are wondering if today’s storm portends more wintry wonderland in the near future. There is a storm system that could bring a couple inches of snow next Monday and Tuesday but no big blizzards are on the near-term horizon. What about the longer term? The Climate Prediction Center’s long range outlooks were just released this week. For the month of December it looks like we are once again in the “equal chances” category – equal chances that temps and precipitation will be above or below normal.

CPC Dec-Jan-Feb Forecast

 There is a higher chance of warmer than normal temps in the southern two thirds of the country and a higher chance of above normal precipitation in the northern mountain states and the Pacific Northwest. This is what we should expect with a strong La Nina in place in the Pacific ocean. I am sure we will continue to see stories of wild winter weather in the Pacific Northwest over the next month or two. Looking farther down the road, the three month winter forecast has not changed much since the last issuance of the long range outlooks. It still depicts Wisconsin as lying between areas where temps and precipitation have a higher chance of being above and below normal. I have a suspicion that this means we will end up with a couple big storms this winter, as we might be in the clash zone between much warmer and much colder air.

Have a nice Wednesday and a happy Thanksgiving holiday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Storms, Winter Weather

It is here! The official opening day of gun deer hunting season.  It was surely a chilly one for all those hunters, highs barely made it out of the 20s around the area.  I haven’t been on here in a couple days because I have been enjoying some time with my family.  They flew up from Florida and let me tell you, we have had more people ask them why they would come visit in Nov then in the summer.  Ironically enough they have been here always in the winter then in the summer. 

We went down to Madison to visit some family last night and took these pics this morning outside their house.  I was surprised to see so many geese still hanging around, maybe because of the warm Nov we saw?  This is also of the sunrise early this morning.  ( I should give credit to my mom since she was the one up and taking it!)

I wanted to give the hunting forecast for tomorrow… It does look like we will see freezing drizzle and rain develop overnight.  It should likely change over to just liquid in the late morning…between 9 am and noon.  Because of the freezing rain we do have a FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY in effect from 3 am to 9 am and until noon for Vilas, Oneida, Lincoln, Forest and Langlade.  The counties in effect until 9 am are Taylor, Jackson, Clark, Marathon, Wood, Portage, and Price.  Just be a bit careful if you will be on back roads especially late tonight or early tomorrow morning.  Even a little glaze can be dangerous and cause slipping on major roadways.  Freezing rain is the most dangerous form of winter precip to drive in and is best to try and avoid driving in it.  This being said there are many articles with tips on how to try and be safe if you must venture out.  I will be driving to the Twin Cities tomorrow for the Packer/Viking game.  We are going to allow extra time so that we can make sure to be safe getting there.  If you are going to be heading out hunting or to church please allow plenty of time. For the hunters…winds will switch from the East, to the Southeast and eventually to the South by later in the afternoon.  The winds through the day should be light from around 5-10 mph.  Good luck!!!

As I have mentioned here I have started reporting and have been venturing to find fun outdoors or stories related to North Central Wisconsin.  I went up North to the Rhinelander area on Wednesday and interviewed a very unique individual.  Frank Kovac built his own Planetarium!  I was thoroughly impressed with his hard work and dedication to the project.  It took him 5 years to build and 5 years to be able to open it to the public!  I don’t know if I have ever seen a person so passionate and dedicated in my life.  Stay tuned for the story.  Here is just a few pics from there.   Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Fall, First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Uncategorized, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

With lots of talk about the snow in Minnesota,( they saw the most snow in Nov in two decades!) the lack of snow here ( but record precip!), and deer hunting coming up I am not sure where I want to direct this blog so I think I will hit on a little of everything… 

As Justin mentioned below we saw a mixed bag of precip this weekend which did help us in the rain category.  We broke our record on Saturday, we saw .84″ which broke the record set in 1909.  I talked about this on air but forgot to mark it down here!

I know that I am in need of a little break from the rain/snow and overall this week is looking fairly quiet but active, how can we be both?!? The interesting point about this week is there are very week system that will move through almost every other day.  We will call them hiccups.  So this means we are seeing an active week when we actually have storm systems moving on through.  Why am I calling it quiet? Because these are weak storms and really will not make an impact.  They will bring a slight chance but no day could I put the chance over 30%.  This being said “quite active” week is about the best way to describe the week ahead!

Looking to the weekend, of course one people ALWAYS look forward too, deer gun hunting.  Is that the correct way to say it?  I remember asking why it is nice to see snow right before and was told because then you can track the deer.  If you couldn’t tell I haven’t hunted much, well anytime in my life tp be honest!  There is a slight chance that we cold see some snow on Friday which could put the dusting on the ground and help out the hunters.  I think that Saturday will be dry but we will see another storm on Sunday.  The Sunday storm is the one that I believe will bring us our best chance at snow this week.

I also wanted to share this link.  I don’t usually direct people to ads but this one is really neat and I think relates to this blog.  It is trying to show the connection between the earth warming and humans.  If anyone at all likes the “Go Green” attitude they will like this commercial.  I don’t really state my opinions on Global Warming on here but I do believe we should all do our part in keeping our earth clean so future generations can enjoy it as much as we do.  Here is the commercial and here is the making of the commercial.  I really enjoyed seeing how they were able to do some of the scenes… I don’t want to give it away but what an awesome animal to use!.

Have a great week! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

As expected, the weekend was gloomy, but there was something of note, besides our first measurable and significant snowfall of the season. It was a record precipitation of 0.84 inches on Saturday in Wausau. The precipitation was a mixture of snow, sleet, and (mostly) rain. Melt it all down and you get 0.84 inches. This makes me happy in one regard, our precipitation total for the year is now up to 35.20 inches, which is 4.25 inches above normal with no threat of ending the year below normal because normal is 33.36 inches. Now I realize that some of you got sick of the rain this year, and it was quite excessive at the end of September when the severe flooding developed, but as our weather watcher Dick in Merrill is fond of reminding me – we need this rain to recharge the groundwater. We probably need 3 or 4 years in a row of above normal precipitation in order to havelakes consistently back up to normal levels.

As far as precipitation goes, some winter enthusiasts were probably hoping that rain was all snow – if so, it could have been 5 to 8 inches like what fell in parts of Minnesota on Saturday. As it was, the most accumulation in central Wisconsin occurred on Sunday (as forecast), but it was only 0.10″ officially in Wausau so we did not have our First Snowfall Contest winner over the weekend.  For all of you entered in the contest, it looks like the next chance of measurable snow will be on Sunday of the upcoming weekend.

Did the ears of all the deer hunters just perk up? Yes, it does look like there will be a storm system in the upper Midwest on Sunday. How much it will affect our whether is still a question mark – being that far out in the forecast. Right now I am forecasting a 30% chance of snow in most of our viewing area, except in the south (south of Marathon county) where it could mix with light rain or sleet. Accumulations? Right now it looks light – maybe an inch (subject to refinement throughout the week). Otherwise, there weather should be fairly decent for the opening weekend. Low temps should be in the 20s and high temps in the 30s for Saturday and Sunday. We should have partly or mostly cloudy skies with north-northeast wind of 5 to 10 mph on Saturday and more easterly winds on Sunday at 5 to 15 mph.

The threat of snow often makes people comment about how the hunters would like to have snow for the deer hunt. I am unsure if this is necessarily true in the modern day. The main advantages of having snow is that it is easier to see the deer walking through the woods and it is easier to track them before and after the shot. Back in the day, it was also nice to have snow on the ground in order to drag a harvested deer through the woods. Snow on the ground means less friction. Today, a lot of hunters use ATVs or their hunting location/stand is easily accessible with vehicular traffic, so there is not too often a need to manually drag a harvested deer very far. Also, the average age of deer hunters is climbing. Snow usually means cold temperatures, which are harder to deal with as we age. I know many hunters that would prefer 40 (or even 50) degrees and partly sunny than 30 degrees and an inch of snow. I’ll be happy just as long as we don’t have thick fog like last year.

Lastly, on the subject of hunting, I am amazed at how many hunters like to hunt but do not like to eat venison. I get the whole social and sporting aspects of hunting and how this is very engaging, but I would think more hunters would eat what they harvest. Not to worry, the meat does not go to waste. It is often donated to food pantries or given to friends and relatives. Myself, I like all aspects of the hunt from beginning to end. In an increasingly interconnected technologically-advanced fast-paced modern world, I like to experience a little slice of the past. If I get a deer, I don’t mind dragging it – if needed. Our hunting party gets together on the second weekend for processing the deer meat so that is a nice social event as well. Lastly, I enjoy eating venison all year round. It is an organic source of protein and the deer are plentiful in Wisconsin (just ask the insurance companies). I rarely buy meat from the grocery store. Good luck to all the hunters and be safe.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, Records