First an update on the California “missile” mystery. The Pentagon is now saying that it was a jet contrail. Before being completely convinced, I would like find out what airplanes were scheduled to fly in that space at that time. If it was an contrail-type illusion (not a missile launch), then there should be a record of some jet aircraft coming from the west (From Hawaii, Australia, or maybe even the west coast of Mexico) during that time. If no one can find details of scheduled flight then it leaves open the possibility of a missile launch. What is your opinion about the “missile”. Share your thoughts in the comment section.

In weather news, the storm we have been tracking all week is still projected to hit the area this weekend and as Brian mentioned over the last day or two, it is looking more like rain for central Wisconsin with a potential for a couple inches of snow in the northwoods.

NAM Forecast for Saturday

If we do not end up with an inch of snow in Wausau, then the First Snowfall Contest will continue through at least Wednesday of next week when another storm system could bring some light snow. For this weekend, it looks like some rain will develop Friday afternoon and continue into Saturday. The rain will eventually mix with and change over to snow Saturday night and into Sunday morning. The highest chance for a couple inches accumulation will be north of highway 8 and west of highway 13. The embedded image shows the NAM computer model projections for Saturday evening, indicating a bit more westward track of the storm.

Someone asked about the hunting season forecast (opening weekend - the 20th) again yesterday and I have been trying to pin it down over the last few days.

GFS model indicates cold opening weekend of hunting

It looks like there will be a storm moving through the Midwest around that time frame. The timing of this storm will be key to the hunting conditions. If the storm moves through on Friday (the 19th), then the hunting weekend will be cold and breezy, much colder than recent years. If the storm slows down a bit, the the opening weekend could be fairly mild with a chance of some light precipitation (mainly drizzle or light showers). The colder weather would then hold off until late Sunday or Monday (the 23rd). It pains me to say that I cannot refine the forecast more at this time. Opening weekend is still 9 days away which limits the accuracy of the forecast.

Something else that has been in the forecast over the last few days is an Air Quality Advisory in central Wisconsin. A couple years ago when the Air Quality Advisories started appearing in central Wisconsin, I was incredulous. I didn’t think there was a big enough population in central Wisconsin to create troublesome smog and particulate pollution. It turns out that the area has grown and automobile pollution is a problem. Nowadays anytime we have a few days in a row without much wind, we end up with an Advisory. It is not as bad as Houston, Atlanta, LA, or a host of other US cities, but it concerns me quite a bit.

The advisory level has been at orange over the last couple of days which means people sensitive to particulate pollution (those with asthma, other lung issues, or the elderly) should take precaution. Even though this level of pollution is not immediately “bad” for healthy folks, a lifetime of exposure has been linked to increased mortality and ill health as we age. When it comes to doing something about the pollution, tough choices need to be made. California clamped down on car pollution by instituting emission standards. Every car in the state has to pass an emissions test – which I assure you is a pain in the rear end and expensive if you own a used car that doesn’t run as efficiently as when it was new. Air pollution did go down in the Golden State over the years but it is still some of the worst in the nation. Another solution is to attempt to limit urban sprawl and promote mass transit. This has not worked so well in the US because we have a lot of space to expand into and there is more of an independent spirit in the country. Even here is Wausau it is tough to stop sprawl. When the National Guard wanted a new facility they chose to move out into the country and pave over 40 acres of “green space” instead of building something new at their current location. Building at the current location would require that they have a 2 story building. When the city (and myself) suggested building at the current location they said go fly a kite (“we don’t do 2 story buildings”). So if we cannot reign in sprawl the next best option would be to use non-polluting cars. Thankfully, there is a burgeoning electric car industry in the US and around the world. The prices of the new electric vehicles (EVs) are a little steep right now, but hopefully will come down enough to allow mass adoption in the near future, otherwise I will have to move far out into the country, or even out of state. Some of the cleanest air is in the mountain states out west, although some locations are now being affected by particulate pollution from China. Some people estimate that up to 15% of this type of pollution along the west coast originates from China. Guess what the problem in China is? Too many cars, and car ownership in China is much less than in the US, so it could get worse.

One thing I should mention, in respect to air pollution, EVs are a much better option than biofuel cars. Biofuels might be slightly better for than the environment than traditional fossil fuels, but they still produce smog. Some studies have show increased levels of some types of pollution with the use of ethanol. Plus many biofuels are still much too expensive for mass adoption. Growing the material for biofuels also takes up a lot of space. From start to finish, electrification of transportation is much more efficient.

Have a fine Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Pollution, Winter Weather

Does anyone have any theories on the “missile” launch in southern California yesterday? After briefly reviewing the video and hearing a few explanations from others, I am 40/60 on whether it was a missile/rocket or anairplane. I can certainly understand the optical illusion argument of how a jet contrail could look like a missile launch (and this has happened before) but this is one good illusion if it is a contrail. Seeing is believing and it looks enough like a missile/rocket launch for me to give it a 40% chance. Since the government and independent sources have not come to a definitive answer yet, I doubt we will ever have anything near 100% confirmation either way.

The rest of today’s blog post is going to be follow-up material on several subjects I have been discussing over the past few years. Every once in a while, I just have to throw in a pile of continuing stories.

1. Bee Colony Collapse Disorder (BCCD). I came across this story a few years ago when the BCCD was blamed on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), just like most every negative event or change in contemporary times. Since then, more people have studied it and have nearly ruled out AGW, pesticides, and a few other things. The latest theory is that a combination of a viral and fungal infection in the bees causes the mass die-off.

2. When discussing AGW, I often bring up the point that it is very difficult to factor progress and innovation into future predictions because technology is changing so fast. Thus climate predictions often assume an unlikely ”business as usual” scenario for fossil fuel usage over the next century. Finally, more people such as Dutch technologists Rutger van Santen and Djan Khoe are promoting the idea of how we can use technology to address the most pressing problems here on earth. Their new book 2030: Technology that will change the world addresses the climate as well as many other social problems. I was happy to see someone else thinking about technological progress recently and I hope it makes it into the discussion increasingly in the future.

3. Since I brought up electric vehicles yesterday I might as well mention that there was a new record for distance driving on one charge set in Germany a little while back. The Audi car with an electric engine drove from Munich to Berlin, a total of 373 miles, on one charge. That is quite impressive. When I think about purchasing an electric car, I think about some of the longer drives I might make, home to the Chippewa Valley, or to Madison for a Badger game, and these are all well under 200 miles one way. If electric cars can routinely achieve 300 miles per charge, I think they will be much more likely to be adopted in the U.S where driving distances are generally a bit longer. Staying on the EV subject, Mitsubishi has announced an American version of the i-MiEV that will go on sale next year. It won’t be in my price range but with government rebate incentives, the price should be under $30,000.

4. Peak Oil: Here we are nearing 2011 and there is still no sign of Peak Oil disrupting the world economy. In fact, there appears to be a current glut of fossil fuels with increasingly ingenious ways to extract and use them. This has not stopped talk about Peak Oil. This recent study used a new metric to assess whether Peak Oil is a disaster waiting to befall modern society – the stock markets. Looking at long term market investment and sentiment, the study determined that investors do not think alternative fuels will arrive before traditional fossil fuels will run out. Markets are usually a superior way of forecasting future trends but I think this study has too far of a time horizon to be useful.

5. Cloaking. If you haven’t heard, scientists in a few different labs around the world have create real honest-to-goodness cloaking devices, similar to what Gene Roddenberry imagined for Star Trek. So far the devices can only cloak objects in single wavelengths of electromagnetic radiation (such as microwaves) but they are getting better at it and should someday be able to cloak in visible wavelengths. The latest development is a cloaking material that is flexible.

6. Queue up Gordon Lightfoot. Today is the anniversary (1975) of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald. Some blog references here and here.

For those of you waiting to see if we will have a winner in the First Snowfall Contest, it still looks like a possibility of an inch or 2 of snow on Saturday the 13th which 5 people predicted. The latest computer models indicate slightly warmer air with this storm and thus there might be a bit more rain than snow and we might have to wait a bit longer to find out the winners.

For all the hunters, earlier this week I took a stab at the opening weekend (gun deer) forecast. At that point it looked like quite chilly conditions with gusty winds and perhaps some light snow or flurries. The current forecast has backed off a bit on the cold air but it still looks like there could be some precipitation on or around the 20th.

Winter Weather Awareness Tip: Always bring your cell phone when you have to drive through a winter storm.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Peak Oil, Science, Technology, Winter Weather

We have seen beautiful weather the past couple days.  It really does not feel like November and I am fine with that!  We were not even close to our record high or 73 in Wausau but tomorrow the record high is only 61.  We are forecasting a high of 61 soooo yes it will be possible that we actually see a record broke tomorrow. 

After tomorrow and even a fairly pleasant day on Thursday the weekend will be upon us.  As mentioned in many recent posts there is a potential storm that could bring us our first accumulating snow of the season!  Right now it looks like most of it would fall as rain during the day Friday and then we will see a change over from rain to snow late Friday and overnight.  This would mean overnight and early Saturday we would see snow.

 Alot of factors will come into play with this storm.  A few being when the cold air will actually push and how cold the ground will be.  The cold air moving in affects when the changeover happens and how cold the ground is affects how much will actually stick to the ground.  Here is a look at Friday night near 7pm.  This is when we see the magically blue line begin to move over the Badger State.

Since we are talking about snowfall I wanted to dive into some of the first snow statistics around the area.  Lets look at when it is normals for us to see our first snowfall.

                                          Trace             Avg 1″             Avg 3″

Antigo                         Nov 9th          Nov 13th        Nov 28th

Clintonville               Nov 16th       Nov 24th         Dec 14th

Marshfield                 Nov 9th          Nov 13th         Dec 5th

Merrill                         Nov7th           Nov 13th         Dec 1st

Rhinelander              Nov 7th          Nov 11th          Nov 30th

St. Germain                Oct 31st          Nov 3rd           Nov 20th

Shawno                        Nov 17th        Nov 20th        Dec 5th

Stevens Point            Nov 17th        Nov 23rd         Dec 11th

Wausau                         Nov 5th          Nov 14th          Dec 3rd

Wisc Rapids                Nov 16th        Nov 23rd          Dec 9th

Most of us have already seen the trace of snow which occurred on Oct 27th.  I don’t believe anyone has seen accumulating snow.  From the numbers above we could be early by just a few days if we see over an inch but below the 3 inch mark.  

Don’t forget we have the First Snowfall Contest still going on!  It is possible we could see that 1 inch and have some winners by early next week. Stay tuned!

Have a great night! Enjoy tomorrow! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

As Brian and Kristen mentioned over the last couple of days, there is a potential for our first significant snowfall of the season come this Friday night and during the day on Saturday. Right now I am forecasting a 50% chance of rain on Friday changing to snow on Saturday. It is still too far away to add much more certainty to the forecast but as a rough first estimate – if the storm does hit Northcentral Wisconsin – there could be 2 to 4 inches. The snow might stick around as well, since it looks like colder temps will be developing over the weekend and next week. The picture is of the GFS model run from midnight last night (the latest available). It shows a moderate low pressure system with a couple inches of snow for the late afternoon on Saturday.

Perhaps it is fitting that our first threat of snow is coming at the end of Winter Weather Awarenessweek. To start out the week, I will pass along the most important and most effective Winter Weather Safety tip: DON’T DRIVE LIKE A MANIAC! Having a four wheel drive vehicle with all the newest fancy automatic controls and anti-lock brakes only ensures that you will be going faster and die in a more violent crash (often taking others with you) when it does happen. The last time I was on the road during an icing event, my wife and I drove from Wausau to Abbotsford and saw about 10 vehicles in the ditch. All but one were SUVs or Trucks. The SUV drivers thought they were safe, but ended up in the ditch. There is no substitute for driving slower. Plan ahead. When there is snow or ice falling from the sky, leave 10 minutes early for work and drive more carefully.

With the potential for snowfall, we might also finally have our winners in the first snowfall contest. If the storm does produce snow in our area, 1 inch in Wausau (the contest criteria) is a distinct possibility. If I had to forecast, I would say the higher chance of that inch of snow will be on the 13th (Saturday) and not the 12th (Friday). Nine people predicted the 12th and five people predicted the 13th. Good luck! The top 4 prizes include R-store gift cards and car wash coupons.

Now taking an even bigger forecast risk, for all of the hunter’s out there, the GFS computer model (the one reference above) is showing a brutal opening weekend for the gun hunt. Looking almost 2 weeks into the future can be fraught with errors, but I wanted to alert all the hunters that there could be light snow or flurries as well as gusty winds and well below normal temperatures for opening weekend. The CPC 8 t0 14 day outlook also shows a good chance of below normal temps late next week. How cold could it be? High temps could be in the 20s or even a bit lower.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Freeze, Winter Weather

The news department at Channel 9 informs me that all the power outages from last week are now fixed. I am hoping this means that the power company will be out to take down the tree in the alley way by my yard. I didn’t call the power company directly last week (because they were not taking calls) but a city employee apparently did. I expect they will be out today but I will definitely make a call if they are not. In case you didn’t read last week’s blog entry, the wind storm blew a large tree onto the power/telephone/cable lines behind my house. It is just sitting there hung up on the wires. If it falls, it will of course knock out the power but also damage a large city fence.

Much less will be happening this week as compared to last week. No record-breaking storms, but there will be a cool down on Thursday and Friday and a chance of a few flakes of snow Thursday. The only locations that could end up with a bit of accumulation (perhaps an inch or two) are in far northern Wisconsin where there could be some lake effect snow. The chances of an inch of snow in central Wisconsin (enough to produce a winner in our first snowfall contest), is near zero. The good news is that we will have nice November weather today and tomorrow and then after a couple chilly days on Thursday and Friday, conditions should be dry and temps should be back up to normal over the weekend.

A short blog post today because I must travel to award this year’s first tools-for-schools winner with $300. Find out what classroom won on Wake-Up Wisconsin Tuesday morning. Find out how they will use the cash to help their students.

The monthly recap (of October) will have to wait until tomorrow or for later this afternoon.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, Severe Weather

There is so much information to talk about tonight! We have been looking at wind gusts and pressures because these two factors go hand in hand.  I tweeted earlier today ( If you are on twitter feel free to follow me at KConnolly_waow) “For the weather novice=the lower the pressure=the stronger the storm=the higher the winds”.

That is the easiest way to explain why us weather geeks are obsessed with this storm.  Today in Orr, MN we saw the LOWEST ever recorded non-tropical pressure in the mainland United States.  The pressure was so low to could be compared to the pressure of a major hurricane!!!  The pressure that was recorded was 28.20″.

The shear size of the storm is also amazing! It is covering half of the county.  It is not just the size of the storm but the weather that it is causing is so diverse. 

We have Blizzard warnings on the backside of the storm where cold air is pushing into the Dakotas.  Over the Midwest where we are closest to the “eye” of the storm winds have been the real kicker.  And last but not least we are seeing a line of severe weather associated with an intense cold front that pushed through us but through the Ohio Valley and now it punching towards the East Coast.  There have been numerous tornadoes reported and warned on and will continue into the overnight and early tomorrow.  We had one tornado reported and confirmed in Racine.  Here is the link to that information.  It was an EF1 with winds of 86-110 mph.  It took a path of 6 miles in length. 

So this storm will go down as a storm of the century! Not only did Minnesota break their lowest recorded pressure ever Wisconsin also hit their lowest in the state.  In Superior, WI we hit a pressure of 28.38″ which equals 961.06 mb that was just after noon today.  The previous record was held in Green Bay with a pressure of 28.45″ and was set on April 3d 1982.

Posted under Fall, First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Records, Science, Severe Weather, Storms, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

It has been the talk of the Midwest! I wrote about it yesterday and Justin blogged about it this morning.  This storm could possibly be the storm of the season.  Articles around the Midwest and talking about how this storm is comparable to the worst storm that we have seen in the past century.  Justin mentioned that we saw a storm in 1998 that the center passed just to our Northwest over Duluth, Minnesota.  He says that this storm was the strongest recorded.  I was doing some research to try and figure out exactly what the strongest storms in history are.  Here is what I figured out:

The Nov 10th 1998 storm lowest barometric pressure reading was 28.475″ which equals 964.3 mb.  This was recorded at Duluth.

The storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald had a pressure reading of 28.95″ at its lowest point which equals 980.4 mb.

The “Great Ohio Blizzard” of January 1978 the lowest pressure was recorded as 28.05″ which equals 949.9 mb.

So far those are all the reading that I can come up with of storms that have been the strongest in the last century that have had readings near what we should see for tomorrow.  This in article with the pressure from the last two storms.  This is the records from the 1998 storm.

Looking at this map of tomorrow morning you can see that we are near the 960 mb.  Now this is model data so depending on how low we get will depend on where we get marked down in the record books.

Now this is “comparable” to the pressure of a hurricane but a few things to note that are completely different.  A hurricane is fueled by warm moist ocean waters.  Midwest cyclones are fueled by the jet stream.  So although readings are similar what it means at the surface and for us are different. 

What do you need to know about tomorrow?  Most of us are under a High Wind Warning espcially to the south of 29.  This means wind gusts could range in the 55 to 60 mph zone.  An Advisory has been issued for the rest of us and winds will reach gusts to 40 to 45 mph.  These winds could knock down trees, power lines and throw outdoor furniture across roadways.  These winds are near what we would see in a severe storm and will not just last for a short period but for a much longer period, almost 36 hours!  The warnings/advisories will be in place from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening. 

We will keep you posted with all the latest so make sure to stay tuned to our webchannel and Channel 9!

PS Our first snow is in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Fall, First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Records, Severe Weather, Storms, Tropics, Uncategorized, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

As expected, it was a rainy weekend and as expected, it looks like a big wind storm will be developing for tomorrow (Tues.) and Wednesday. Kristen touched on this in her blog update yesterday and I will again highlight it today.

A windy day does not normally cause too much trouble, but when the wind gusts reach 40 to 50 mph it is a different story. At this speed the wind could blow a few tree limbs down and cause sporadic power outages. If the wind gets up to 60mph, which is a slight possibility, then it could tip over lightly-loaded or empty semi-trucks on the freeway, and bring small trees down. If severe gusts do develop, they will most likely occur around midday on Tuesday and in the eastern part of the viewing area – east of Wausau. The winds will remain strong later Tuesday and into Wednesday but the peak will likely occur early in the wind storm. Officially a HIGH WIND WATCH is in effect for most of the viewing area, except Price, Iron, and Ashland counties. A HIGH WIND WARNING has already been issued for Menominee, Shawano, Waupaca, and Waushara counties (even though the winds will not crank up until tomorrow).

This storm reminds me of the November 10th 1998 storm when we had 50 to 60 mph winds in much of our area and there was a 93 mph wind gust reported near La Crosse. The roaring wind over Rib Mountain was erie. People talked about it for days afterward. Many trees were blown down and there were some power outages. That storm was a record-breaker. As the center passed over Duluth Minnesota, they record the lowest ever pressure reading for that location. The storm took a very similar track to the one that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald on November 10th 1975. We have blogged about this in the past and you can do some further reading here.

Other than the wind, you will have to deal with some heavier rain and some rumbles of thunder after midnight tonight. The commute to work on Tuesday will be wet and then the wind will kick in during the afternoon. The wind will also bring some cooler air to the region, cool enough that we could have some light snow showers later Wednesday into Thursday morning, primarily in the northwoods. I think there could be enough snow for a dusting in some areas, but it will melt quickly. For all the folks who entered the first snowfall contest and picked dates in late October, sadly, I don’t think we will have our winning snowfall this week or weekend. It looks like the first significant snow for most of the area will hold off until sometime in November.

Other than wind, rain, and snow showers, what else is there. Perhaps a few rain showers on Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Right now I am calling for a 30% chance of that rainfall. Trick-or-treaters should keep this in mind.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Fall, First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Severe Weather

No winner in the first snowfall contest yet (obviously!) and it doesn’t look like much chance of an inch or greater of snow for the next week to 10 days. We might have to wait until Halloween or even November before we find out who will win the prizes (hundreds of dollars in gift cards and car washes) from the R-stores.

In the weather, the most interesting trend is our spell of Indian Summer weather which included a record high (tied) of 80 here in Wausau on Friday. Today could be our last official Indian Summer day with high temps around 70. However, it looks like we will still have decent October weather for the rest of the week. High temps will be in the upper 60s on Tuesday and in the low to mid 60s from Thursday through Saturday. Wednesday will be the coolest day with high temps in the 50s – which is about normal for the middle of October. The highest chance (40%) of rain will be Tuesday evening but if rain does develop it should be light. This means more good viewing of the Fall colors, however, it now looks like the best color will be in the southern half of the state. I have included a nice fall picture from one of our weather watchers – Rick from Tomahawk.

In science news around the world, it seems like Virgin Galactic has stolen the headlines. Their second spaceship took its first flight over the weekend. It was released from the mother ship and glided down to earth. Now, I know I decided to drop space exploration news from the blog but I thought this was worth a mention since I had covered private space exploration extensively in the past and Virgin Galactic is getting closer to taking paying customers to the edge of space. Unfortunately, SpaceShipTwo (“VSS Enterprise”) stole headlines from a more momentous disclosure from over the weekend. Apparently, Google (yes, the search company) has tested autonomous cars on highways with live traffic conditions. For many years, futurists have forecast the development of self-driving cars. It seems like something out of the Jetsons. This would seem like a ground breaking technical and engineering feat that could transform transportation around the world – particularly in the U.S. – by saving lives and energy. Yet, I did not see any coverage of this revelation in mainstream media outlets. Maybe tonight. I for one would like to have an autonomous car/vehicle. That way I would have my own personal transportation and could relax, eat, work, or what-not while “driving” to work or elsewhere. What does everyone else think? Have you been waiting all your life for an autonomous car? Or could you do without.

Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, Technology, Viewer pictures

September this year was cold and rainy, and last year was beautiful.  Last year October was cold and even snowy at times, while so far this year it’s beautiful!  Wait…snow…did I say snow in October last year!  That’s right, a year ago this coming Sunday(October 10) we received our first dusting of snow in Wausau, and the Northwoods saw up to an inch.  That was just the start.  On the following Tuesday(October 12) we received 1.4″ of snow in Wausau, and 2″ to 4″ up north!!  That’s hard to imagine this evening with temperatures in the 60′s and upper 70′s in the forecast tomorrow.

So when will we see our first dusting of snow this year???  After looking overthe long range computer models, there really isn’t a real decent chance in the near future.  Next Thursday might be our first slim chance.  The 540 mb level dips into Central Wisconsin.  The 540 mb level is the magic level which indicates a column of air capable of producing frozen precipitation.  It still may be 40 at the surface, but cold enough aloft to produce snow.  The computer model however doesn’t indicate much if any precipitation during this favorable time frame for snow, except maybe some lake effect snow showers up north.

We may be waiting a while to see who wins the First Snowfall Contest.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Fall, First Snowfall 2010